Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Why do people think Montreal is a viable baseball expansion market?

15 comments

Don't think we're seeing Youppi's return anytime soon. Jpg via Youppi's tumblr page (yes it exists).

Don’t think we’re seeing Youppi’s return anytime soon. Jpg via Youppi’s tumblr page (yes it exists).

Rob Manfred was caught on mike talking about expansion at this year’s all-star game.  He reminded us that Montreal drew 91,000 fans to two exhibition games prior to this season’s start.

Before we even talk about all the other roadblocks to expansion in the current MLB landscape (RSN deals, geographical ownership issues, the lack of actual viable cities, the lack of the cascading downstream need for an additional *twelve* minor league teams/twelve appropriate minor league cities to support two more MLB teams, etc), lets talk about Montreal as a baseball host city.  Because we have plenty of evidence already telling us whether that city really can host professional baseball.

Here’s a table showing Attendance and ranks within the NL for the Franchise:

Year Tm Lg W L W-L% Finish Attendance Rank in NL Capacity Attendance as % of Capacity
2015 Washington Nationals NL East 48 39 0.552 1st of 5
2014 Washington Nationals NL East 96 66 0.593 1st of 5 2,579,389 7th of 15 41,418 76.89%
2013 Washington Nationals NL East 86 76 0.531 2nd of 5 2,652,422 6th of 15 41,418 79.06%
2012 Washington Nationals NL East 98 64 0.605 1st of 5 2,370,794 9th of 16 41,418 70.67%
2011 Washington Nationals NL East 80 81 0.497 3rd of 5 1,940,478 14th of 16 41,418 58.20%
2010 Washington Nationals NL East 69 93 0.426 5th of 5 1,828,066 14th of 16 41,418 54.49%
2009 Washington Nationals NL East 59 103 0.364 5th of 5 1,817,226 13th of 16 41,418 54.17%
2008 Washington Nationals NL East 59 102 0.366 5th of 5 2,320,400 13th of 16 41,418 69.59%
2007 Washington Nationals NL East 73 89 0.451 4th of 5 1,943,812 14th of 16 45,596 52.63%
2006 Washington Nationals NL East 71 91 0.438 5th of 5 2,153,056 11th of 16 45,596 58.30%
2005 Washington Nationals NL East 81 81 0.5 5th of 5 2,731,993 8th of 16 45,596 73.97%
2004 Montreal Expos NL East 67 95 0.414 5th of 5 749,550 16th of 16 45,757/18,264 24.17%
2003 Montreal Expos NL East 83 79 0.512 4th of 5 1,025,639 16th of 16 45,757/18,264 33.07%
2002 Montreal Expos NL East 83 79 0.512 2nd of 5 812,045 16th of 16 45,757 21.91%
2001 Montreal Expos NL East 68 94 0.42 5th of 5 642,745 16th of 16 45,757 17.34%
2000 Montreal Expos NL East 67 95 0.414 4th of 5 926,272 16th of 16 45,757 24.99%
1999 Montreal Expos NL East 68 94 0.42 4th of 5 773,277 16th of 16 45,757 20.86%
1998 Montreal Expos NL East 65 97 0.401 4th of 5 914,909 16th of 16 45,757 24.69%
1997 Montreal Expos NL East 78 84 0.481 4th of 5 1,497,609 13th of 14 45,757 40.41%
1996 Montreal Expos NL East 88 74 0.543 2nd of 5 1,616,709 11th of 14 45,757 43.62%
1995 Montreal Expos NL East 66 78 0.458 5th of 5 1,309,618 10th of 14 45,757 39.75%
1994 Montreal Expos NL East 74 40 0.649 1st of 5 1,276,250 11th of 14 45,757 48.93%
1993 Montreal Expos NL East 94 68 0.58 2nd of 7 1,641,437 13th of 14 45,757 44.29%
1992 Montreal Expos NL East 87 75 0.537 2nd of 6 1,669,127 10th of 12 45,757 45.03%
1991 Montreal Expos NL East 71 90 0.441 6th of 6 934,742 12th of 12 45,757 25.38%
1990 Montreal Expos NL East 85 77 0.525 3rd of 6 1,373,087 10th of 12 45,757 37.05%
1989 Montreal Expos NL East 81 81 0.5 4th of 6 1,783,533 10th of 12 45,757 48.12%
1988 Montreal Expos NL East 81 81 0.5 3rd of 6 1,478,659 11th of 12 45,757 39.90%
1987 Montreal Expos NL East 91 71 0.562 3rd of 6 1,850,324 9th of 12 45,757 49.92%
1986 Montreal Expos NL East 78 83 0.484 4th of 6 1,128,981 11th of 12 45,757 30.65%
1985 Montreal Expos NL East 84 77 0.522 3rd of 6 1,502,494 8th of 12 45,757 40.79%
1984 Montreal Expos NL East 78 83 0.484 5th of 6 1,606,531 8th of 12 45,757 43.61%
1983 Montreal Expos NL East 82 80 0.506 3rd of 6 2,320,651 3rd of 12 45,757 62.61%
1982 Montreal Expos NL East 86 76 0.531 3rd of 6 2,318,292 3rd of 12 45,757 62.55%
1981 Montreal Expos NL East 60 48 0.556 2nd of 6 1,534,564 3rd of 12 45,757 62.11%
1980 Montreal Expos NL East 90 72 0.556 2nd of 6 2,208,175 4th of 12 45,757 59.58%
1979 Montreal Expos NL East 95 65 0.594 2nd of 6 2,102,173 4th of 12 45,757 57.43%
1978 Montreal Expos NL East 76 86 0.469 4th of 6 1,427,007 7th of 12 45,757 38.50%
1977 Montreal Expos NL East 75 87 0.463 5th of 6 1,433,757 6th of 12 45,757 38.68%
1976 Montreal Expos NL East 55 107 0.34 6th of 6 646,704 11th of 12 28,456 28.06%
1975 Montreal Expos NL East 75 87 0.463 5th of 6 908,292 9th of 12 28,456 39.41%
1974 Montreal Expos NL East 79 82 0.491 4th of 6 1,019,134 9th of 12 28,456 44.49%
1973 Montreal Expos NL East 79 83 0.488 4th of 6 1,246,863 9th of 12 28,456 54.10%
1972 Montreal Expos NL East 70 86 0.449 5th of 6 1,142,145 9th of 12 28,456 51.46%
1971 Montreal Expos NL East 71 90 0.441 5th of 6 1,290,963 8th of 12 28,456 56.36%
1970 Montreal Expos NL East 73 89 0.451 6th of 6 1,424,683 6th of 12 28,456 61.81%
1969 Montreal Expos NL East 52 110 0.321 6th of 6 1,212,608 7th of 12 28,456 52.61%

 

Some salient points in time for context (lots of the history stuff is from the wikipedia page for the Expos):

  • From 1969 to 1976, Montreal played in “Parc Jerry,” with a capacity of just 28,456 for baseball.   For the first few seasons, the team drew decently, averaging nearly 50% capacity.  They bottomed out in 1976, going from a 75 win team to a 55 win team.
  • In 1977, the team rebounded in both performance and attendance timed with the move to Olympic Stadium; their attendance more than doubled from 1976 to 1977.  From 1978 to 1983, the team was successful on the field and in the stands, routinely placing 3rd or 4th in the league in attendance and placing 2nd or 3rd place in the division.  This also included the Montreal franchise’s sole playoff appearance, a 3-2 NLDS loss in 1981.
  • Suddenly after 1983, fans stopped showing up and the team stayed mediocre; they went from 3rd or 4th in the league in attendance to 8th at best, 11th out of 12 at worst.
  • In 1991, the team was sold to a new ownership group, and a new wave of players made the Expos very competitive very fast (94 wins in 1993).  However, fans remained ambivalent; even after the 1993 season as the team sat in 1st place for all of 1994 (the season eventually cancelled), attendance went from 44% of capacity to 48% of capacity.  After the players strike, ownership and fan interest began to dwindle.
  • Jeffrey Loria acquired the team in 1999; he failed to get media deals done for the 2000 season, failed to negotiate a new stadium deal, and attendance and fan interest showed: in 1998 the team was dead last in attendance and never left last place of the NL.
  • Baseball attempted to contract Montreal (and Minnesota) in 2001, further adding insult to injury for the remaining Montreal fans.
  • In 2002, MLB negotiated the 3-way transaction of Boston, Florida and Montreal, leaving the Expos as a ward of MLB.  From 2002 to 2004, the franchise was plundered of its staff, its infrastructure, and its willingness to compete.  Furthermore, to “combat low attendance” the team played a quarter of its “home games” in Puerto Rico at a stadium a fraction of the capacity of Montreal’s stadium.
  • In their final seasons in Montreal, the Expos were averaging just 17-20% stadium capacity (not counting the two years traveling to San Juan).  By way of comparison, the Nats first season was at 73% and their last three have not dipped below the 70% capacity marker.

Some quick summary points:

  • The Expos absolute best cumulative attendance season was 1983; the Nats have already drawn more than that on four different occasions.
  • The Nats worst attendance season (2009), was still better than 31 of Montreal’s 36 seasons.
  • The Nats already have the 5 best attendance as a % of capacity seasons.
  • Montreal was dead last in NL attendance for their last 7 seasons in Canada.   You have to go back another 14 seasons before you even find a time when they were in the upper half of the league of attendance.

Montreal was asking for a new stadium as early as 1999-2000, and ran into roadblocks to get public funding in the amount of $150-$200M.  Now new stadiums routinely cost 4-5 times that.  Why would anyone think that Montreal would finance something now?

So, again, considering the known attendance and stadium issues, and not even addressing the RSN and currency issues, why again does anyone think that Montreal is a viable city for Baseball right now?  Yes its a large city (it’d be ranked somewhere in the 10-15th largest city range if it acquired baseball), and yes its a “wealthier” city since its Canada and it houses their seat of government.  But, they *had a team* for 30+ years and didn’t support it, refused politically to build the infrastructure to keep it, and had no local ownership interested in keeping it.

Sometimes I hear about other international expansion sites.  Puerto Rico?  Mexico City??  Do people not understand the financial needs to support a professional baseball team?  You need *wealthy* cities, not places where the median income is a fraction of what it is in the USA (by some measures, Puerto Rico’s is about 30% of the US and Mexico is just 10-15% of the US).

Portland?  San Antonio?  Charlotte?  Virginia Beach?  All nice mid-sized American cities, in some cases already hosting AA or AAA teams.  All *smaller* than some of the smallest markets already hosting MLB teams and struggling financially (places like Milwaukee, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tampa, etc).  So I’m not entirely sure how these are great expansion alternatives.  The last two times baseball expanded, it was to major, growing cities that were mostly deserving (Denver, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa).

I dunno; every time I hear about expansion in baseball I laugh.  We still havn’t even come close to figuring out the most recent franchise relocation issues (aka, Washington-Baltimore’s RSN mess) and Oakland & San Francisco can’t agree on who “owns” a city that’s basically equidistantly far away from both stadiums (San Jose).  Now we want to shoe-horn in two more franchises onto a landscape map that’s 100% spoken for?

The reality of the situation is this: the two places it makes the most sense to put an additional team are the two largest cities in the land.  New York and Los Angeles.  Stick a team in Brooklyn and in Riverside and carve up the massive markets in those two cities.  And it’ll never, ever happen.

 

Written by Todd Boss

July 15th, 2015 at 12:03 pm

Posted in Baseball in General

Tagged with ,

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15 Responses to 'Why do people think Montreal is a viable baseball expansion market?'

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  1. Very informative post, Todd. As a DC native who has lived in Tampa for over a decade and who is married to an enthusiastic Rays fan, this issue comes up frequently down here as Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg tries to get the team out of the dump they play in and into a new stadium. (The awful location of the Trop is only outshone by its hideous design and stupid ground rules to accommodate the low catwalks.) Because downtown St. Petersburg lacks the fanbase to support a team, and because that city won’t even allow the team to talk to the city of Tampa about relocating across the bay (about 25 miles by car), ownership has occasionally dropped the thinly-veiled threat to relocate the team out of the area if they can’t get a new stadium in Tampa. But when the specific mention of Montreal came up last year, I told my wife to stop worrying, because what that meant to me is that the team has no real suitors outside the area. No ownership group in their right mind would relocate a baseball team to Montreal. If the Rays’ concern is poor attendance, why relocate to a city where you’re virtually guaranteed more of the same?

    As an interesting aside, something I became aware of after moving here is the deep one-way animosity that St. Pete feels toward Tampa: a bigger, richer city that is so close by that you can literally see its skyscrapers across the bay. It reminds me of the Baltimore hate for DC (including the fact that Tampa is utterly indifferent to St. Pete, just like DC is to Baltimore). Some Rays fans in St. Pete state openly that they’d rather the team leave the state than move to Tampa (where the NFL Buccaneers and NHL Lightning are already located). Well, they may get their wish someday, but it won’t be to Montreal.

    clark17

    15 Jul 15 at 2:30 pm

  2. I wrote a huge post four years ago talking about expansion. And now I think that entire post was folly; there’s just no easy way to expansion anymore. There’s a link to an article I read from the Tampa Bay local paper that spurred my interest in writing it, and per your comments nothing has changed. Actually, the real fun in that post was speculation on what the divisions would look like.

    Sternberg is screwed; bought a team with a bad lease and a bad deal. Nothing he can do about it.

    Interesting dynamic with St Pete/Tampa. I did not know that.

    Todd Boss

    15 Jul 15 at 2:46 pm

  3. Excellent piece and analysis. I completely agree with you on the lack of viable candidates. You can probably make a better case for contraction — not that I favor it — than you can make for expansion. Tampa was a mistake made necessary by MLB’s fear of having its antitrust exemption challenged.

    Roberto

    15 Jul 15 at 8:45 pm

  4. The Expos always seemed like a cursed franchise in that their two best seasons on the field were the two strike years. How much different might things have gone had that 1994 team won the Series, which it easily could have? We’ll never know. For a ‘Spos fan, it must have gotten quite old continually watching your best players bolt as soon as they were eligible for free agency.

    That said, expansion is a silly idea. For whatever reason, the number of injuries has gotten so ridiculous that the entire AL save the Royals entered the All Star break only 8 games apart. The product on the field is watered down enough already without diluting it still further.

    Incidentally, Ottawa is the Canadian seat of government, not Montreal.

    Karl Kolchack

    15 Jul 15 at 10:33 pm

  5. Ottawa: knew I should have checked that before hitting “publish.” 🙂 Firing the editor.

    Todd Boss

    16 Jul 15 at 9:36 pm

  6. Not to hijack the thread, but I had to come to the draft central site to laugh at the richer-than-God Dodgers for failing to sign Funkhouser. He was supposed to be their “steal of the draft.”

    Also, in the ongoing Phillies insanity watch, they’re calling up Aaron Nola to start burning his years now, instead of later when they might be a little better than excrement. Ruben, we love you!

    Oh, and Det has signed with the Braves. Ugh.

    Getting back to the topic at hand, it’s true baseball geek confession time: I actually wrote a term paper in college on MLB relocation and expansion to the West. (In brief, the Dodgers did everything right, while the Giants did nearly everything wrong.) As for current expansion: just say no. Fix the problems at hand, including the San Jose stadium deal, whatever needs to be done with the Rays, and settling the 10-year relocation legacy of a certain #%@@!! MASN blackmail deal. Oh, and speaking of MASN and San Jose, please address the territorial “rights” issues that have been antiquated for half a century.

    Expansion to Puerto Rico, where the government is trying to get authorization to declare bankruptcy? Really? Is Ruben Amaro Jr. chairing the expansion committee? Or to Montreal, which nearly suffered financial collapse building and then doming that god-awful stadium? (One of the few points you left out is that the players union would revolt over another team paying in Canadian dollars . . . although they’d be better than pesos!)

    The expansion/relocation destination we used to always hear was Las Vegas, but the recession hammered the city and the state. Maybe Bryce can Be Like Mike and own a team there when he retires.

    Here are the metro population areas by rank:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Metropolitan_Statistical_Areas

    Yes, the largest without a team is the Riverside/Inland Empire area. If they get a team, though, please put it in Rancho Cucamonga! Next down the list would be Charlotte, Portland, San Antonio, Orlando, and Sacramento. I could see teams in the first two sooner or later, as they’ve got the generally affluent populations to support them. OK, not “sooner or later”; it needs to be “later,” as in this doesn’t even need to be discussed for any earlier than 10 years out, unless a team like Tampa Bay ends up having to relocate. It’s too bad with the Rays since they’re a generally well-run team. To their south, a con artist got a new stadium built in Miami and presides over a trail wreck.

    KW

    17 Jul 15 at 5:08 pm

  7. Err, “train wreck” in Miami. In our division. Just like the Phillies. Thank you, gods of baseball.

    KW

    17 Jul 15 at 5:10 pm

  8. Great stuff Ken. Would love to see that paper 🙂 You have in PDF anywhere?

    I have a bunch of tracking XLSs that use MSA ranks and i know they’re out of date. They all use the 2010 census date but not the 2014 estimates per this wiki page. I should grab the data and update it. I’ve always used Riverside and Brooklyn as the two biggest areas w/o baseball but MSAs cover Brooklyn. I didn’t realize how much Charlotte has grown.

    Todd Boss

    20 Jul 15 at 9:09 am

  9. Oh, thoughts on Funkhouser failing: i’m guessing the Dodgers just ran out of cash to get him to sign. Pre-season he was at least top 10, probably demanded top 10 money and they couldn’t do enough of an overslot to get him to sign. He goes back to school to pitch another year and try to regain value (kinda like what Appel did recently). We’ll see if it works. Personally, a year of time is a long time; so much can happen. He could twist an ankle, miss a month, screw up his arm, etc and get drafted in the same area he just did. Unless LA totally low-balled him i think its a risky move.

    Todd Boss

    20 Jul 15 at 10:47 am

  10. I would guess that the Dodgers and Funkhouser both miscalculated a bit. The bigger risk is with Funkhouser, though, since there were already reported arm issues, causing him to drop. Then the guy that the Dodgers did sign immediately needs TJ. It’s one thing for the Nats, with a stocked system of arms, to draft/sign such guys, but curious for the Dodgers considering their back-end-of-rotation problems and Greinke’s potential opt-out.

    As the college paper, I think it was written on papyrus! If it still exists, it’s buried in a box in the attic somewhere. No great revelations, just an interesting exercise.

    Here’s a relocation/expansion question for this region, though. Back in the ’90s when there were threats to move teams, one of the destinations mentioned was Northern Virginia. I distinctly remember hearing “Northern Virginia” mentioned more than DC itself. Do any of the area long-timers have any memory of such a semi-organized effort? Where were they proposing a stadium? Since that was before Loudoun County blossomed, I would assume Fairfax County, somewhere with Metro access.

    KW

    20 Jul 15 at 12:33 pm

  11. I definitely remember the NoVa push for baseball relocation efforts. I believe it was called the “Virginia Baseball Club.” Here’s a link from 2004 when the team announced it was coming to RFK: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60802-2004Sep29.html . And here’s more detail on William Collins III, the spearhead of it: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9636-2004Aug17.html

    Push was for a stadium near Dulles Airport to be built along with a huge baseball complex.

    However, I also remember seeing something based on a stadium being put right where 66 and 267 split off, basically on top of the west falls church metro station. Metro owns a ton of land there that could have been repurposed for stadium and parking.

    Todd Boss

    20 Jul 15 at 1:27 pm

  12. Interesting stuff. It would have been a very different vibe to have the team in the ‘burbs rather than in the District. And the Silver Line would have gotten built a lot sooner!

    I was trying to think of another truly suburban team, and Anaheim is the only one that comes immediately to mind. Atlanta is sort of making a comparable move out to Gwinnett, although it will be along 285, so more like if the Nats had built their stadium at Tyson’s rather than way out at Dulles.

    KW

    21 Jul 15 at 7:50 am

  13. Atlanta’s move is definitely counter to the prevailing trend of putting stadiums in downtown areas. It makes sense in some respect (moving the stadium closer to where their fan base is). I wonder if the Nats, were they to do an analysis of where their fans actually come from, would jump to the same conclusion. My inclination is that the Nats fanbase is mostly western suburb-based (without any proof of course). Would they draw even more if the stadium was in Loudoun? Or even in Tysons somewhere?

    Todd Boss

    21 Jul 15 at 9:01 am

  14. I have always heard that the Nats’ fan-base is heavily VA-based. I assume someone has studies to that effect, or season-ticket-holder info, or something. I don’t know if that is due more to logistics, or if there is more lingering O’s connection to those who live closer to Baltimore, or what. Montgomery County is farther from the stadium but much more affluent than PG County, which is closer.

    For VA, a stadium near Dulles would have made game trips difficult from eastern Fairfax and Prince William Counties, not to mention the District. You would have much greater accessibility north of Tyson’s around the 495/66 interchange. There is/was already Metro running down I-66. There would have also been some good spots in Springfield near the Metro/VRE, but it’s not as close to as many affluent areas as 495/66 would be.

    It will be interesting to see how things work out in Atlanta, and whether other cities follow the lead to the suburbs. In general, studies have shown that stadiums and arenas in urban areas have not “revitalized downtown” nearly as much as has been promised when the public funded the facilities. The areas around Nats Park and Verizon Center sure have improved, though. Meanwhile, the FedEx semi-suburban experiment hasn’t gone well.

    KW

    21 Jul 15 at 11:11 am

  15. […] expansion: we havn’t talked about expansion here in a while.  I posted in July 2015 asking why people thought Montreal was still a viable expansion market, but the last time I really analyzed expansion was in July of […]

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