I’ll take about 10 more of those starts, Stephen, Thank you. Photo via centerfieldgate.com
I wrote earlier about the ridiculous slate of starters this team had to face coming out of the All Star break. They went 6-10 in that stretch, an admirable record considering the opposition. That took the team to a relatively “easy” looking home-stand against two also-rans (Arizona and Colorado) who were sellers at the trade deadline. The Nats have practically their whole offense back, augmented the bullpen with Jonathan Papelbon, and got their 2nd “Ace” back in Stephen Strasburg. They have no more excuses; its time to take control of the division from the suddenly energized Mets.
But, instead of rolling to a 5-2 or a 6-1 home stand … the team scuffled to a 3-4 record, with Drew Storen blowing two games single-handedly, Doug Fister blowing a start against an opposing pitcher with about 5 minutes of service time, and one game that the bullpen so badly bungled that Tyler Moore was on the mound at the end.
Not good.
The team now sits at 57-53 (just an 84 win pace) and is a game and a half back of the Mets. And they now hit the road for a crucial, difficult 10-game west coast swing. Three games in LA, four in SF and then 3 more against the Colorado team that embarrassed them at home. This while the Mets play 7 straight in New York (albeit against the same Rockies who I thought were patsies and then against a Pirates team that just battered the Dodgers’ starters in Pittsburgh).
Lets take a quick look at the projected starter match-ups against the Dodgers and Giants. Because, lets face it, those are the two series that could be pretty telling:
| Nats SP | Projected Opposing SP |
| Gonzalez | Anderson |
| Ross | Kershaw |
| Zimmermann | Greinke |
| Strasburg | Vogelsong |
| Scherzer | Cain |
| Gonzalez | Peavy |
| Ross | Bumgarner |
Daunting. Are the Nats in danger of being outright swept in Los Angeles? I think so. They then move up the coast but face a SF team that plays a lot better at home than on the road, despite what looks to me like a SP advantage for the Nats. I don’t really trust Gio Gonzalez anymore in big games, and certainly not on the road (where he has a 4.80 ERA this year, versus 2.60 at home). Joe Ross has a grand total of 7 starts in the majors and he’ll be given the rather daunting task of facing two of the best pitchers in the game back to back in Kershaw and Bumgarner. Tough.
Here’s the problem. I can easily see this team going 2-5 in these games. What happens if the Mets keep winning?
This season is more and more reminding me of 2013. Tons of expectations, and tons of under performance all year, leading to a mid 80s win season but no playoffs. If this team returns home a week from now and is at .500 (a very distinct possibility), is it finally time to worry?
Answer to your question: Yes, it is probably time to worry now. Seriously, did Davey pop his head into the clubhouse before Opening Day and whisper “World Series or bust”? It’s like this team is allergic to high expectations.
What looked like it should be a historically great starting rotation simply isn’t one. After a great 2014, Fister has imploded so badly that he’s lost all hope of a big FA contract and is looking at a one-year deal somewhere to try to salvage his career. Gio is the same wildly inconsistent pitcher he’s been since he collapsed in the 2012 postseason. Strasburg has been injured and inconsistent, and generally just seems like his brain isn’t wired to be an ace pitcher. Sure, Z’mann is a solid #2 starter, but he’s down from his 2014 peak. And Scherzer is earning his FA contract, but let’s leave aside that he just lost yesterday to some guy no one ever heard of before.
As for the lineup, aside from Harper and Escobar, every other opening day starter is either underperforming, injured, or both. Z’man and Werth seem like they’re both going to be playing injured half-seasons for the rest of their $200M careers; Desmond picked a lousy time in his career to start sucking again; based on his college career, I can only hope that last season’s healthiness wasn’t an aberration for Rendon; and what’s happened to Ramos? But for some pleasantly surprising play from Espi, Taylor, and Clint Robinson, who knows where this team might be.
It feels like the best-case scenario is that the Nats somehow limp into the playoffs only to lose in the LDS again (because they aren’t going to beat out Pittsburgh for the WC). World Series favorites, people! What is it that Tim Hudson said before facing the Nats in the LDS last year? Damn right.
clark17
10 Aug 15 at 11:41 am
Sure it’s time to worry; not because it’s 2013 redux (it isn’t) but because they can’t guarantee that it’s 2014 redux either – their position in the standings is a lot closer to where they were last year than they were in 2013. At this time two years ago the Nats were four games under .500 and 15.5 games out of first place. 2015 isn’t 2013 all over again – it’s a new and special kind of misery!
But the Nats have no guarantees. If they can tread water through the ten game road trip the schedule tips dramatically easier – not just in opponents (they have one series with the Cardinals, but that’s about it for tough opponents), but 27 of their final 42 games are at home. But the Nats have to stay close enough to be relevant. In that they are aided by the fact that the Mets aren’t any great shakes either, and although their schedule after this week (they do have to play a very good Pirates team this week) is also pillowy soft (the Nats have to play the Cardinals, the Mets have to play the Yankees), the Mets have to play 26 of their final 44 games on the road – where they’ve been terrible. As in 21-34, with a -30 run differential.
So it’s a resistable force (Nats) close on the heels of a catchable object (Mets). And then of course, baseball being baseball, the winner will probably end up in the WS like the Giants and Royals did last year coming off of 87 and 88 win seasons. Get to the dance and the coin flips may fall your way. But you have to get to the dance, first.
John C.
10 Aug 15 at 12:04 pm
A little concerned? Yes. Mad after blowing two games to a terrible team? Yes. Worried? No, not at all. The Nats are only 1.5 games back of a mediocre team, in a division that might be won with 85 curly W’s. And John beat me to the punch of pointing out the postseason runs that the Giants and Royals made last year after failing to crack 90 wins.
In the glass-half-full department, Strasburg looked incredible, like the guy we thought we were getting in 2009. JZim had one of his best starts of the season as well. Ross is an upgrade on where Fister is at the moment.
At the plate, RZim looks ready to go on one of his streaks. I’m not buying Werth being totally back, but he did manage to get one out of the yard. Even Desmond is hitting close to .300 since the All-Star break. Rendon for the most part looks completely back up to speed.
Will it be easy? No. It will probably come down to those last three games at Citi Field. The gut checks may start a little earlier than the NLDS this year. But that’s baseball.
KW
10 Aug 15 at 12:40 pm
KW glass is half full guy! You paint a good picture.
Todd Boss
10 Aug 15 at 2:37 pm
I attended three games on this last home stand–all losses. I attend 15-20 games a year, and haven’t seen a stretch like this since the bad old days of 2008-2009. Just the fact that you are more or less expecting them to be swept by LA, the team they would likely play in the first round of the playoffs should they make it shows that it is time to worry.
If they lose 3 or 4 games in the standings on this west coast road trip and then come back home just to trade wins and losses with the Padres, Brewers and Marlins as they just did with AZ and Colorado that will likely be the final nails in the coffin.
Karl Kolchack
10 Aug 15 at 3:02 pm
Oh, forgot to add that they scored exactly 4 runs in all 4 losses on this homestand. Last year they were 27-5 in Aug and Sep when scoring 4 runs or more. The lineup remains a huge concern, but it is their pitching that is likely going to doom them this season.
Karl Kolchack
10 Aug 15 at 3:08 pm
Karl, no offense buddy, but I think we’re going to have to ban you from the ballpark!
John C.
10 Aug 15 at 3:19 pm
John–well, before this recent bad run I was there for both no hitters as well as Bryce’s three homer game. 🙂
Karl Kolchak
10 Aug 15 at 4:41 pm
Your story reminds me of my gambling buddy who would always roll a 7-out when I walked up on him playing Craps. I wasn’t allowed to be near him.
I think i’m already on record with my prediction for this team: we somehow win the NL East, get matched up against the Dodgers (who won’t catch the Cardinals in the standings for the #1 seed) and we get pulverized in the divisional series. I mean, that’s best case. Worst case is we continue to play like we are, end up at 84 wins and lose the division to the resurgent Mets by a handful.
Todd Boss
10 Aug 15 at 5:00 pm
I haven’t totally drunk the half-full glass of Kool Aid. There’s still something that hasn’t completely clicked for this team. Maybe it’s because of all the injuries. Maybe it’s some of the personalities. Maybe it’s the pressure of looming contracts. Maybe it’s the manager. Maybe it’s a bit of all of the above. But when you’re only -1.5, it’s nothing that a few wins can’t cure. When your -15.5, you’re prepping your golf clubs for October.
I think the two real wildcards are RZim and Stras. If Ryan gets hot enough to make teams legitimately pitch to Harper, and to take a little of the pressure off him, that opens up the whole offense. And if Stras truly is finally ready to turn into STRAS, we’re golden. The whole team would feed off the success of those two.
No excuses. The Mets have started to sputter. They’ve got shutdown and overuse issues looming, even if they don’t want to admit it. They’ve also got bullpen issues. So we’ll see.
KW
10 Aug 15 at 8:44 pm
So, watched the game last night (one of the first times i’ve watched a game all year). Brett Anderson is not a good pitcher. I would have given us more credit for being able to steal at least one game out there had I known the way he is throwing. Nats just pulverized him. And, speaking of curious managerial moves, Mattingly just let Anderson get pounded in his last inning. 5 straight hits before he even got a middle reliever up? It was like the Dodgers just gave up on that game once the Nats scored their 3rd and 4th runs. Weird.
Zimmerman is absolutely locked in; everything he hits either goes to the wall or over it. Desmond too. So yeah, there’s definitely positive offensive trends.
Todd Boss
11 Aug 15 at 8:30 am
Giving credit where credit is due, Anderson is actually not all THAT bad. He had a 3.06 ERA in 21 starts going into the game, after all. The Nats offense got shut down by far worse pitchers on this last homestand.
Guy I went to the game with on Sunday said the Nats this year seem play up or down to the level of their competition. I’m not sure I believe that, but they certainly do seem to love defying expectations this year–often losing when they ought to win and vice-versa.
Karl Kolchack
11 Aug 15 at 9:46 am
We may fear Matty W “matching wits” with a lot of managers, but I’ll take him over Donnie Baseball any day. Gives us hope for the NLDS.
KW
11 Aug 15 at 10:07 am
Karl: agreed on Anderson, i was guilty of a bit of hyperbole there. I had Anderson on my fantasy team for a while … but not after watching him last night. Clearly with his “stuff” he needs to rely on command and hitting corners, and he wasn’t last night. Still, not the kind of guy i’d want to count on and i think clearly in a playoff roster he’s riding the pine.
I can buy “playing up” or “playing down” … i guess. Except they couldn’t hvae had a more important series than against the Mets two weekends back and they were pretty flat.
Todd Boss
11 Aug 15 at 10:45 am
They took two of three games against the Mets in DC, and even when they got swept they were very close, well played games. If you define “flat” as “lost” then yes, the Nats were flat. I didn’t think that they were particularly flat, I think they just got beat.
John C.
13 Aug 15 at 1:24 pm
Its tough to look lively against great pitching. DeGrom, Snydergaard, harvey, Greinke, Kershaw. I think every team in the league takes losses against those guys when they throw 7 innings of 3 hit shutout ball.
Todd Boss
13 Aug 15 at 2:35 pm