Marquis is putting himself in a very enviable position with his great start to 2011. Photo Al Bello/Getty images via bleacherreport.com
As Jason Marquis was putting the finishing touches on his 5-hit shutout last Friday, I got a hypothetical question from Jason, a buddy of mine: If Marquis continues this great start, what should the team do with him?
To review the facts at hand:
- Through 5 starts, he’s 3-0 with a 2.62 era and 1.165 whip. That’s good for a 149 ERA+.
- More importantly,this performance does not seem to be the product of luck or chance; his FIP and xFIP are excellent (2.47 and 3.13 respectively). By way of comparison, the MLB best FIP last year was 2.41 (Josh Johnson), and the best xFIP was 2.92 (Roy Halladay). Lastly his BABIP is .306, so if anything he’s been slightly unlucky on batted balls. So he’s definitely pitching at a very elite level.
- He’s in the 2nd year of a 2yr/$15M deal ($7.5M each year).
- He’s 32, and turns 33 in August.
I think the answer is, “trade him for prospects” and here’s why.
- I don’t think he’s part of the long term solution for this team. We’ve got too many up-and-coming arms in the minors to block them with a veteran.
- He’ll be 33 at the end of the season, and may be looking for a 3 year deal if he pitches well enough. I’m not sure the team wants to commit to a career 98 ERA+ guy for 3 years.
- Despite his fantastic start, and even if he continues, I just don’t think he’s that good of a pitcher. He’s got a career ERA in the 4.50 range. He’s generally been considered a durable, low K/9 but high K/BB innings eater, the kind of guy you make your 4th or 5th starter.
- He’s in a contract year, and he’s shown some tendencies to pitch better when he’s playing for his next contract. The best season of his previous 3year deal was in the final year of that deal in Colorado.
- The Nats are not going to compete in 2011. We’re struggling to stay at .500, have very little offense right now, and are certain to trade their veteran/one-year contract guys at the deadline. This is one of the main reasons we made room and retained guys like Chad Gaudin and Laynce Nix at the expense of Balester and Bernadina.
The counter arguments? If Marquis’ 2011 performance is really more in line with what he’s capable of, then he could be a really valuable addition to a 2012 rotation that (at this point) seems to include Strasburg, Zimmermann, Lannan, and Gorzelanny. He’s throwing 91-92 with serious downward movement (sink) right now and he’s really difficult to hit against. Perhaps he’s turned a corner and escaping the altitude in Colorado really has enabled his sinker to become closer to unhittable.
He’s pitching at a higher level than his $7.5M AAV contract (seemingly on pace for another 14-15 win season), and could be considered a real bargain if we could sign him to a comparable number for 3 more years.
But, if Marquis is retained it leaves little room for advancement for any of a slew of AAA and AA prospects we have overachieving right now in the organization. The question becomes this; would you rather pay for the proven starter or roll the dice with rising prospects who cost one-twentieth the salary? Honestly, the most valuable commodity in baseball is the pre-arbitration ace starter (think Clay Buchholz going 17-7 in 2010 and getting paid $443k) and it may be worth the gamble. But these AA arms are just prospects; despite having sparkling k/9 numbers in AA, there’s no guarantee that translates to the majors. Some GMs want the known quantity versus the unknown gamble, and there’s a very legitimate argument that keeping Marquis gives us the “known quantity.”
I think the move is to flip Marquis to a contender at or before the trade deadline. Honestly, wouldn’t the New York Yankees LOVE to have him to shore up their rotation? And wouldn’t he love to go to New York, since he hails from New Jersey and reportedly still lives there in the off season? Trade him, get some higher-end prospects that are quick to the majors (think the Wilson Ramos–Matt Capps deal last year) and prepare for 2012.
Thanks for the statistical analysis.
You can make a good point that for the next 2-3 years that the Nats will need either a Marquis or Livan to help with the young pups while they mature, and there’s a lot of terrific pitching bubbling up from the farm.
I personally love watching Hernandez pitch so, for me, the choice is easy.
We’ve learned that, so far, Rizzo could care less about ‘fan favorites’. And they have the attendance figures to prove it.
Mark L
2 May 11 at 10:17 am
@Mark L I think people loved Adam Dunn more … yes even more than Livo? So, he’s right Ramos looks BETTER than Posey!!! If Rizzo could do that again!? Perhaps with CF?
We don’t know how long Harper will be in the minors … or … whether he can play CF. We don’t know what will happen when he lands in Potomac? Perhaps the Groovin’ Aruban will surpass him there? What about blocking Destin Hood even though he is not hitting exceptionally well for the P-Nats?
So, flipping Marquis for a high end, AAA almost ready for the majors prospect? Corey Brown was also an attempt at that … and so was H-Rod?
As for Livo. Have to wonder if anyone really wants him that badly? Except the Nats. He would make a great #5 – #6 spot starter bullpen rubber armed guy. Why not keep him as the veteran presence?
The problem is Riggleman puts these guys like he and Pudge up on Pedestals and behaves like they shit marble. These guys are on the last legs of illustrious careers. They can no longer carry ballclubs to the playoffs. But they could make excellent backups and mentors. Just not starters …
And there’s the rub … Riggleman is not a good manager for up-and-coming prospects as he won’t trust them enough to play them over underperforming AAAA veterans.
peric
3 May 11 at 12:45 am
Livan at $1M is one of the biggest bargains in baseball. If the choice comes down to Livan at a low rate or Marquis at $8-10M/per, the choice is obvious. I like the whole “Livan as pet” thing here; he was on the first Nats team, continues to perform well, and could provide a nice veteran rubber-armed stability for the extended future. He’s a min-effort arm action who can throw til the cows come home. Would there be anyone else out there who wants him? Absolutely! Despite his 85mph fastball he’s tied for the lead in the majors in opening day starts. There’s demand for his services absolutely.
Harper’s value increases immensely if he can play even a mediocre center field. He’s apparently getting about 1 of every 5 starts in center down in Hagerstown, probably to ease him into the role. I think that’s the move; put the athletic harper in Center and leave Werth in right for the long term.
Your target in a Marquis trade is what we got in return for Matt Capps; a quick to the majors prospect. The Willingham deal I go back and forth on; I feel like Rizzo sold low in some respects, but then again Willingham wasn’t projecting as a type A or B free agent, so anything he got in return would have been better than just letting him go in FA. I get the impression that Willingham’s injury history and his defensive liability outweighed his offense in Rizzo’s mind, and he made the deal. Neither Rodriguez or Corey Brown was really the ideal player to get in return (each for different reasons).
I was worried about Rizzo over-playing Pudge … but Ramos is getting more ABs and we’re not seeing a Frank Robinson-stick-with-Guzman-all-year situation yet …
Todd Boss
3 May 11 at 10:09 am
Frank Robinson-stick-with-Guzman-all-year situation yet …
Or a Jim Riggleman make Guzman starting utility-man bat him second even though his OBP is terrible and nary a walk to be seen?
Riggleman is far worst. Just look at who is batting second. And they ask Riggleman about it? I like Ankiel batting 2nd he sees more fast balls. To swing at and strike out on.
peric
3 May 11 at 12:25 pm
I guess the logical question is, “If he wasn’t batting Ankiel 2nd then who would he?” When 6 of your 8 regulars are batting .220 or below, there’s not a lot of good choices 🙂
Todd Boss
4 May 11 at 11:16 am