Lets catch up on the last month or so of Mocks and draft rankings, to take the pulse of where we are 3 weeks out.
This is the first time i’ve split up the Mock Draft posts, since it makes no sense to include mocks from the winter with mocks that are posted just ahead of the draft, when intel is at its best. Also, i’ve decided to just include “Draft Rankings” along with Mock drafts to show some context here. Draft Ranking boards do not take into account team preferences (which is the value of Mocks), but are valuable since they indicate what scouting shops think is the true value of the prospects.
So here’s what the Mocks are saying the month before the draft.
I’ll bold the player’s names the first time they appear, not afterwards.
- MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) mock 6/8/22: Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones, Elijah Green, Brooks Lee, and Nats take Kevin Parada. Callis notes that Parada could go a bit earlier, and if so the Nats are going to be handed either Green or Lee. Both would be great picks; Green’s scouting report basically lists him as the highest upside player in the draft, while Lee is a polished college player who only improved his stock after being a 1st round talent 3 years ago out of HS.
- MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo) mock 6/15/22: Lee, Jones, Holliday, Johnson … and in this scenario Nats take Green over Parada. But, this scenario assumes that the Orioles are going to spend the money it’ll take on Lee at 1-1.
- CBSsports Mike Axisa Mock draft v1.0 6/15/22: Holliday, Jones, Green, Lee, Parada.
- The Athletic (Keith Law) 6/16/22 Big Board Draft Ranking: Jones, Collier, Johnson, Green, Lee. 6-10 goes Holliday, Parada, Jung, Zach Neto (a SS from Campbell), then Cross.
- The Athletic (Keith Law) 6/21/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Green, Cam Collier, and the Nats take Parada. They’d be taking Parada over Lee in this scenario, which I’d struggle to understand (wouldn’t you want a college SS over a college C if you’re “set” for catcher at the MLB level for 6 years?) I know I often preach “you don’t draft for need” in baseball … but Catcher is a little unique. Unless the team is basically saying to themselves “the bat is worth it irrespective of his position.”
- Baseball America’s 6/21/22 Top 500 Draft Class Rank: Jones, Lee, Holliday, Johnson, Green. After this 6-10 is Parada, Jacob Berry from LSU, Jace Jung from Texas Tech, Gavin Cross from Virginia Tech, and the young Cam Collier from Chipola.
- BA Staff Mock Draft 6/23/22: Jones, Green, Johnson, Holliday, then they mock Parada over Lee to the Nats. See, if I had this choice i’d absolutely go Lee and I don’t think its close. The selector’s rationale was that Parada has a “good chance” to stick at the position, but doesn’t pay homage to BA’s own draft ranking board (which now has the switch-hitting SS up to #2 overall). If Lee gets to the Nats, he’s got to be the choice.
- MLBPipeline Draft Board expanded to 250 6/29/22: Jones, Holliday, Green, Johnson, Lee. 6-10 goes Parada, Berry, Collier, Jung, Cross. I’d be ecstatic if this is the way it goes, but something tells me Lee is going earlier.
- CBSSports Mike Axisa 6/30/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Green, Lee, Parada. Pretty consistent with other mocks at this point.
Summary of Nats likely pick: Basically every pundit has the Nats taking Prada.
Other interesting draft names of note.
- BA’s 250 features the fast rise of Oklahoma’s CWS star Cade Horton, now ranked 24th and probably a 1st rounder.
- Kumar Rocker won’t get back to his originally drafted spot at #10, but he should be a first rounder after solid performances.
- Two local kids still projected to be mid 1st rounders in Cross and Delaughter.
- Nick Morabito, a 2B from Gonzaga HS who lives in McLean, is the son of a little league contemporary of mine. If Nick can hit anything like Brian his dad (who was a 4-yr starter at JMU) then he’ll be successful. MLBpipeline and Keith Law both have him inside their top 100, which puts him at maybe a mid-3rd rounder … is that enough to buy him out of a college commitment?
- Ivan Melendez, the Hispanic titanic from Texas that certain people on this board are gaga over, is ranked #99 on the big board, putting him right in our wheelhouse range for our 3rd rounder (84th overall). The Dick Howser collegiate POTY is usually a pretty good indicator of MLB performance, and past winners include a slew of highly successful MLBers (going backwards, guys like Adley Rutschmann, Brady Singer, Brendan McKay, Andrew Benintendi, Kris Bryant, Mike Zunino, Buster Posey, David Price, and of course two back-to-back guys in Stephen Strasburg & Anthony Rendon. That’s a solid track record. But, Melendez has Drew Mendoza look and feel to him; big guy, 1B limited already, who hits the
- Nate Savino, 116 on the board. Another example of a kid who bought into eschewing 1st round money for the glory of a college coach and now will get 5th round money.
For all the talk about the MLB Combine, I had to look around a bit to find any actual reporting on it:
https://www.mlb.com/news/players-who-stood-out-at-2022-draft-combine-workout
Of the top players, Collier and Johnson seem to have helped themselves. My hunch is that when people look back at this draft, Johnson is the one teams are going to most regret passing on. He’s Joe Morgan.
KW
1 Jul 22 at 1:33 pm
For me for the Nats, it’s ABG — Anybody But Green. Tool shed, yes, but there’s just too much risk with him. The Nats CANNOT screw up this pick. Nor can they wait years for it to pan out. Green reminds me a lot of the Buxton situation, a guy who was drafted in 2012 who is just now sorta putting things together.
The Nats have a 2020 1st rounder who is close to the majors, but they’ve yet to show much of anything from ’19, ’18, ’17, ’16, ’15, . . . and Fedde from ’14 is mediocre at best. If several of these drafts and high picks had panned out, they would have some leeway to take a flyer on Green and his “tools.” But they don’t. There’s no margin for error.
I think there’s a little flop potential with Collier as well, but less so than with Green. Otherwise, give me any of them.
I don’t think anyone believes that Jones or Holliday will get to the Nats, so they’re not worth discussing. I think best case would be for Lee to fall to #5 and make it a no-brainer. You get an elite college player who should fast-track to the majors, plus you don’t pay as much as you would for a high schooler and have more left to go overslot later.
I’m very high on Johnson and would take him over Parada. I’m fine with Parada, but they really would be taking him for his bat, as they don’t need a catcher. He’d likely be following the Schwarber path, destined for the LF. He stole 11 of 12 bases this season so has enough speed.
If you’re taking Parada almost completely for his bat, though, is he the best college bat? Would Berry, Jung, or Cross be better? There once was a consensus that Berry had the best pure bat in the draft, but he has slid due to positional questions. Unless the Nats surprise me by keeping and extending Bell, they’ll be wide open at 1B and DH.
KW
1 Jul 22 at 2:01 pm
Pass on Melendez in the 3d if you wish, but give me DiChiara and/or Elko later. Elko actually has higher K numbers, which concern me that he’s in the Mendoza/Wiseman tradition with a hole in his swing that will be found and exploited. But they certainly didn’t find it in the CWS.
Also, the Nat drafting in the 3d round in the Rizzo era has been embarrassing, so the bar is pretty low:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=WSN&draft_round=3&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round
KW
1 Jul 22 at 2:12 pm
Tough to say I’d be unhappy with any of the names available, but my board is probably Jones > Holliday > Lee > Parada > Johnson > Collier > Green > Cross > Neto > Berry or something like that. I would consider it unfortunate if we somehow have the fortune of getting to choose between Lee and Parada and pick Parada, but I do think they’ll both hit.
SaoMagnifico
3 Jul 22 at 2:24 am
Sao, I could get on board with your board almost completely. My heart might move Johnson ahead of Parada, but my head would probably lead me back to the 20-year-old college hitter with 26 homers.
Based on scuttlebutt and in-the-know mocks, it seems like Jones and Holliday will go within the top three picks. AZ and TX will take them if the O’s pass. I think Lee will be gone by the time the Nats pick, unless there’s a big run on high schoolers. I’ve seen some suggestions that the Pirates might take Parada and move Henry Davis (1/1 in 2021) to 1B, but otherwise, I’m thinking Parada will make it to #5, and nearly everyone thinks the Nats will jump on him.
General thinking seems to be that Jones/Holliday will go within the first three, then the rest of the top seven will be some sorting of Lee, Parada, Johnson, Collier, and Green. Interest in Berry seems to have cooled.
MLB drafts generally follow consensus for the most part, but there were a couple of kinks last year, with Rocker falling to #10 and House to #11. They were in nearly everyone’s top seven. If I were to point to any top prospect in 2022 who might slide like that, I would say Green. But it’s also possible that he could go as high as #3.
BTW, I still think there’s a good chance that Rocker is the first pitcher taken in the 2022 draft. If he really is fixed, and now has avoided a year of college overuse, he’s probably the pitcher closest to MLB-ready.
KW
3 Jul 22 at 8:53 pm
Totally trivial observation: Kevin Parada and Brooks Lee’s Twitter feeds look very different. Parada’s recent retweets are mostly (not exclusively, but mostly) about accolades and awards he has been getting. Lee’s are mostly (again, not exclusively) about other players, including both Cal Poly teammates and other top draft prospects.
Anyway, the BA guys seem close to 100% sure the Nats will draft Parada if he’s on the board at #5, and they’re usually on the money.
SaoMagnifico
4 Jul 22 at 3:52 am
It would be interesting (but impossible) to know whether the Nats have Parada over Lee on their draft board. Both play a premium defensive position, but neither may stay in that position with the Nats. Both only strike out around 10% of the time, which is huge in my book. Many of the college players the Nats have drafted who have struggled had tell-tale K numbers in college. Parada had a big jump in homers this season, from 9 to 26. Lee’s homers the last two seasons are 10 and 15, but he’s a doubles machine, with 27 and 25. BA and OBP are really close for 2022: .357/.462 for Lee; .361/.453 for Parada. Lee drew 16 more walks than Parada, although one suspects that Lee had less protection in the lineup. Both significantly improved their K & BB numbers this season. Parada drove in an astounding 33 more runs, with 88 RBIs in only 60 games. Parada is six months younger as a draft-eligible sophomore. Parada played against tougher competition.
On paper, there isn’t a lot separating them. As we keep saying, the Nats don’t need a catcher, but Parada seems athletic enough to play other positions. But they’ve also invested a huge amount of draft and international capital in the middle infield: Kieboom, Garcia, Antuna, Infante, Cruz, House, et al.
KW
4 Jul 22 at 2:00 pm
Here’s one that Todd missed, Mayo’s latest take:
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-30-2022
Interesting twist at the top with Jones/Holliday/Green/Collier, with the Nats taking Lee over Parada. Collier does seem to have a lot of helium.
I can’t see Rocker lasting to #39. Maybe he does, but that just doesn’t make any sense to me. The dance to sign Rocker also is going to be interesting. He’s a Boras client, but he has NO leverage. He can’t sit out another season. He turns 23 in November as it is. But if he could last to #39, maybe he could last to #45 . . . and a well-known landing spot for Boras clients.
KW
5 Jul 22 at 2:29 pm
And a big curve ball from Kiley McDaniel (Insider paywall):
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34160528/2022-mlb-mock-draft-20-kiley-mcdaniel-projects-first-41-picks-odds-no-1-overall
Jones/Holliday/Parda/Collier, with the Nats taking Berry! Wow. That’s over Lee, Green, and Johnson. McDaniel’s take:
Jacob Berry, RF, LSU
45% chance
This fit has gained a lot of momentum in the past week or so. Washington tends to shoot for the moon with tools and upside on its early picks, so Green is also mentioned here (15%) as he absolutely fits the bill. They also love Holliday but he won’t make it to this pick. Beyond those three, I’ve heard mostly the college bats here like Parada (25%) and Lee (10%) with a 5% chance it’s someone I haven’t mentioned yet.
KW
5 Jul 22 at 2:44 pm
Jonathon Mayo at MLB Pipeline says Rocker will be taken in the 1st round, sometime after #15.
Mark L
6 Jul 22 at 9:15 am