Here’s the Mocks that have appeared in early July, leading up to the draft. The first couple of Mock draft posts seemed to indicate a pretty clear pattern; the entire industry knows that the Nats are “on” Kevin Parada. Lets see if we start to see any evolution in that sense.
the top 6-7 in this draft are Druw Jones and Jackson Holliday (who definitely are not getting to #5), polished college SS Brooks Lee, and prep players Terrmarr Johnson, Elijah Green, and Cam Collier. Any other name slipping into the top 5 would be a major upset at this point.
- ESPN Insider (Kiley McDaniel) 6/29/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Collier, and the Nats take … Jacob Berry?? This means they’d be leaving both Lee and Green on the board, which most every other pundit says is impossible. Berry is a top pick, but mostly goes at the back-half of the top 10, and the Nats would be leaving 2-3 much better players on the board in this scenario.
- MLBPipeline (Jonathan Mayo) 6/30/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Green, Cam Collier. Nats take Lee in this best-case scenario. Mayo basically says this is Green’s floor, and if the Nats are put to the test would take Lee over Parada if he’s available. We’ll see.
- CBSSports (Axisa) 6/30/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Green, Lee, Parada.
- Baseball America (Carlos Collazzo) 7/1/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Green, Collier . Nats take Parada in this scenario, over Lee and Johnson, which would really piss me off. Collier is, in case you hadn’t heard, the 17yr old who went the Bryce Harper route, graduated HS at 16, then enrolled in Chipola JuCo and has been hitting wood bat as a HS junior all year. Teams that put a lot of stock in “age” value of players are in love with Collier; is Pittsburgh one of them?
- ProspectsLIve 7/6/22 Top 600 Draft board: Jones, Green, Holliday, Parada, Lee. 6-10 goes Collier, Johnson, Cross, Brock Porter and Zach Neto.
- The Athletic staff writer mock draft 7/6/22: Jones, Holliday, Green, Collier. Nats take Parada. Again, i’d rather have Lee here than Parada, and I think the ship has sailed on Johnson as an option for this team.
- MLBPipeline (Jim Callis) 7/6/22 mock: Jones, Holliday, Lee, Johnson. Nats take Green in this scenario, over Parada. Collier also slides here. Green is described as having the best ceiling in the draft and he’d be an excellent pick.
- BleacherReport/Joel Reuter mock 7/6/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Lee, Nats take Green.
- ESPN Draft Board (McDaniel) posted 7/8/22: Jones, Johnson, Holliday, Parada, Collier. His 6-10 goes Lee, Green, Dylan Lesko, Jacob Berry, Gavin Cross.
- Athletic/Keith Law final draft board rank 7/10/22: Jones, Collier, Johnson, Green, Lee. Law really likes Collier b/c he’s quite young and will give significant value to his drafting team. His 6-10 goes Holliday, Parada, Jung, Zach Neto and Cross.
- Athletic/Keith Law Mock 3.0 7/11/22: Lee, Jones, Holliday, Johnson. Nats take Parada here, given that Lee is gone. But they leave Green on the board.
- MLB Pipeline 7/12/22 podcast: the team discussed the various what-ifs of the draft and all seemed to agree on a couple of things: if Jones doesn’t go 1-1, he’s going 1-2. They all seem to think Holliday will be gone no matter what the scenario before the Nats pick at #5. Lee could go a couple different ways ahead of us; the odds of him getting to us seem slim. Most likely the MLBpipeline team seems to think in the end the Nats will be picking between Parada and Green.
- Prospects1500 Draft Board 7/13/22: Jones, Green, Holliday, Lee, Parada. 6-10 goes Jung, Cross, Berry, Johnson, and Daniel Susec.
- MLBpipeline (Mayo) Penultimate mock 7/14/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Johnson. Nats in this scenario with Parada off the board go with Green over Lee. If it comes down like this … the decision becomes floor versus ceiling. Lee has a clear floor, as a polished collegiate SS, but Green’s ceiling is much higher.
- ESPN Baseball Staff mock draft 7/14/22: Jones, Holliday, Collier, Parada, Nats take Johnson. So, this mock has nothing to do with what the teams are actually doing, and is just three staff writers at ESPN taking who they think is the BPA. Not really of any predictive value.
- CBSsports Mike Axisa final mock 7/14/22: Johnson, Jones (since he’s available), Holliday, Collier, and the Nats have a great choice between Green, Parada, and Lee in this scenario, and Axisa has them taking Green.
- BA 7/15/22: Holliday, Jones, Parada, Johnson, and the Nats take Green. This is a weird scenario; if Holliday is almost guaranteed to go #3, how much of a haircut is he taking at 1-1? Is it enough to take him over Jones, who everyone says is a better player? With Parada off the board here, Green is now the obvious choice. The team has never been associated with Collier, nor Lee really.
- ESPN McDaniel mock 3.0 7/15/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Collier, Nats take Berry. McDaniel continues to be the only pundit connecting the Nats to Berry.
- Keith Law final mock 7/16/22: Holliday, Jones, Green, Collier, Nats take Parada.
- MLBpipeline Callis final mock 7/17/22: Jones, Holliday, Green, Johnson, Nats take Parada
- MLBpipeline Mayofinal mock 7/17/22: Jones, Holliday, Parada, Johnson, Nats take Lee. Interesting that he has them taking Lee over Green in this scenario. Both CAllis and Mayo have Berry now going #6.
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Conclusion: it still really seems like we’re going either Green or Parada. I think the MLB pipeline guys said it best: The Orioles at 1-1 will either go with Jones or will cut a slight deal with someone towards the back of the top 7 (likely Johnson). Then, Jones will either go 1st or 2nd, and Holliday will go 2nd or 3rd. Most think Pittsburgh will try to cut a deal at the #4 spot if the O’s cut a deal at 1-1 like most believe they will, leaving the Nats to pick from Parada, Lee, and Green. And, given how far away the team seems from being competitive, its ok to go with the prep player versus the college (catcher) bat. Which leans Green.
My final prediction: Johnson, Jones, Holliday, Collier, and the Nats go with Green.
Post publishing: who actually went 1-5? Holliday, Jones, Kumar Rocker in a huge shocker, Johnson … and the Nats go with Green. Nats take Green over Parada, over Berry, over Lee. Interesting all around.
One has to wonder if Green and Parada are Boras clients to get so many whispered links to the Nats.
One could make the case that Green has the highest POTENTIAL ceiling in the draft. One could also make the case that he has the highest ACTUAL risk, at least until a high school pitcher who has already had elbow surgery is drafted.
My opposition to Green simply has to do with my thinking that the Nats, where they are right now in the grand scheme of things, can’t take on that much risk of failure/long-term struggle. Green isn’t Soto. He doesn’t have the contact skills to reach the majors at 19. I keep comparing Green to Byron Buxton, who is 28 years old and hitting .208 (but with 23 homers), still not really having made it as a full-time starter.
The only high schooler in the draft with the hit tool to make to the majors by 19 or 20 is Johnson. Maybe Collier (technically not a high schooler) will make it to the Show by around the same age as Johnson, since he has a year longer to do it.
Anyway, a college hitter is a much safer bet for the Nats right now, and should be able to progress to the majors within three seasons or so. We were discussing on the last post about how Berry did very little of his damage in SEC play, which turns me off on him. So it comes down to Parada’s power vs. Lee’s positional flexibility. Both strike out only around 10% of the time, which is key in my book when looking for a “safer bet.” Parada had 26 homers, while Lee is a doubles machine and hit well (and with power) in the wood bat summer leagues.
KW
15 Jul 22 at 10:56 am
I actually think Johnson may be the best player in the draft, so he’s the high schooler who would tempt me if he drops, not Green. As I’ve said, I really don’t know what to think about Collier. The analytics seem to love that he’s a year younger plus already playing at a tough JUCO level. (Interesting to note that Johnson, Jones, and Collier all grew up in the ATL area.)
It seems fairly certain that Jones and Holliday will be gone by the time the Nats pick, so my board for the Nats would be Johnson/Lee/Parada/Collier/Berry. All of those ahead of Green.
KW
15 Jul 22 at 11:08 am
Choose your own adventure: Kiley McDaniel mocks Berry at #5 this morning, writing that there’s nothing linking the Nats to Green and they’re all in on college bats. Carlos Collazo mocks Green at #5, suggesting the Nats and Rangers are both pursuing Parada and Green and the Nats may take whoever is still on the board after the Rangers pick.
It’s a frustrating spot. Lee is my top choice here, with Parada not too far behind. Berry and Green are decidedly second-tier. I probably prefer Berry as the safer option, but he also has a fairly low ceiling as a one-dimensional hitting prospect with non-elite exit velos and in-conference stats. Green is likelier than not to amount to nothing in the care of the Nats’ woebegone player development system, but he could be a five-tool center fielder if everything breaks the right way for him.
We enter draft day with less certainty as to the Nats’ preferences than we have had in years.
SaoMagnifico
15 Jul 22 at 12:05 pm
McDaniel final mock (Insider paywall):
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34211201/2022-mlb-mock-draft-30-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-first-two-rounds
Jones/Holliday/Parada/Collier/Berry/Johnson/Green/Lee
Would the Nats REALLY reach on Berry with Lee, Johnson, and Green still on the board? I am encouraged by what Sao reported, that McDaniel hasn’t heard anything linking the Nats to Greens and says they seem to be all in on college bats. But I wouldn’t take Berry over Lee.
McDaniel on Green: “He has possibly the highest upside of a draft prospect that I’ve ever seen but also some worrisome miss rates in showcase play.” But does Kiley really believe his own hype here, since he has Green only #7 on his big board? And only has Green’s current hit grade at 25?
KW
15 Jul 22 at 12:42 pm
Another McDaniel tidbit — this is where he says he would slot guys from this draft into his overall top 100 prospects, when/if they sign: “Jones at 24th, Johnson at 30th and Holliday at 36th, with no one else in this class making the top 75.”
Kinda confirms why I would have Johnson at the top of my board for the Nats, if he makes it that far. But he doesn’t seem to be mentioned in reference to the Nats at all. Not that that means anything in this draft.
KW
15 Jul 22 at 12:53 pm
Joe DeMayo for SNY.tv has this on Green (whom he mocks to the Nats at #5 but also doesn’t seem 100% sold on): “This is the last spot in the Top 10 that I have heard Green connected to. I have also heard there is potentially a big signing bonus demand with Green, so if he does not go to the Rangers at No. 3 or here at No. 5 there’s a chance that he falls down the board a bit.”
Pay out the nose for a wildcard like Green, or slot value for Lee? Hmm…tough call…not.
SaoMagnifico
15 Jul 22 at 2:22 pm
McDaniel said that it’s possible that Green could fall all the way to the Mets at #11. I totally agree on not going over slot for such an unsure thing. The Nats need multiple good players from this draft and can’t drain the treasury on just one guy.
Also, why the flip does the son of a pro athlete need over-slot money? Jones, Holliday, Collier, Green, and Rocker (among others) all have fathers who were well-compensated pro athletes. (Rocker’s father has continued to make 6/7 figures as a college assistant coach.) The weird thing is that Johnson, who isn’t from a pro family, is the one high schooler who is said might be willing to take under slot.
KW
15 Jul 22 at 3:36 pm
I’ve put in a few more mocks that i’ve either newly found from before or which have come out after publishing. Some you’ve mentioned here.
I have zero faith in the Berry pick; the only guy saying that is McDaniel.
Todd Boss
16 Jul 22 at 7:33 am
The only creditable info out of the Nats’ camp seems to be an interest specifically in Parada, and in college bats in general. But most boards seem to have Berry as a real reach now to be in the top seven, or even the top ten on some boards.
The people who say the Nats will take Green because they have a history with toolsy high schoolers are, um, ignorant. They took House last year because he fell from the sky at #11. They have taken some toolsy high schoolers in other rounds in Lile, White, and Infante, but those were unusual deviations for them. I think those are the only high school hitters they have taken in the top five rounds since Kieboom. They’ve stayed away from high schoolers in general in the upper rounds other than Denaburg and Luzardo.
KW
16 Jul 22 at 9:05 am
The tools talk in general makes me break out in hives. There’s only one tool that really matters: the hit tool. You could say 1.5 if you make it the hit tool with some power, but the power tool without contact means nothing.
Josh Bell has no tools beyond hit + power. He’s slow as Christmas and an adventure in the field, even at 1B. But he’s a valuable major leaguer because he can make contact. Daniel Murphy was the same, a slow, below-average fielder in a non-premium position. Even Juan Almighty didn’t get top-tier prospect love because they thought he was LF-only and wasn’t particularly fast.
Give me a guy who makes contact. Parada, Lee, and Berry all K at 10% or less. It seems likely that most of them will hit as pros.
That’s why I keep mentioning Johnson as well. Some scouts have put an 80 on his hit tool. He’s going to hit, which means he’s going to make it. Who cares if he can only play 2B but hit like peak Murphy?
KW
16 Jul 22 at 9:15 am
Nats said to be willing to listen to offers for Soto NOW. Wow. Realistically, there aren’t a lot of franchises that have the prospect capital to even be in the bidding. With more than two years of team control, though (even with two big arb years), it does open up some interesting possibilities with teams that could never sign him long term but might make the two-year gamble. The Rays and Mariners are in the wild card slots and have two of the best farm systems in the game. On the NL side, the Padres seemed willing to part with Abrams last year in talks with the Nats. But Soto would take Abrams, Gore, and a lot more.
We’ll see. Honestly, if they can get the level of return that they need, this is probably their best play. And I say that as someone who truly has loved watching Soto play. If they can turn him into three or four good players, that greatly enhances their turnaround chances.
KW
16 Jul 22 at 1:43 pm
FWIW (very little), McDaniel has the Nats taking Blade Tidwell in the second round. I do think a college pitcher would seem pretty likely with this pick.
KW
16 Jul 22 at 1:49 pm
Yet another reason they don’t need Green is that they’ve already spent $5 million on this guy:
https://twitter.com/Nats_PlayerDev/status/1548366604123062273?cxt=HHwWgoCqzaHO8_wqAAAA
KW
16 Jul 22 at 2:30 pm
Just as there was coalescing between Green earlier this week, the mocks today are pointing back toward Parada, with the latest in the rumor mill suggesting the Rangers are off college hitters and may prefer Green to any of the non-Jones/Holliday names. We shall see if that’s true.
SaoMagnifico
16 Jul 22 at 6:18 pm
If both are available, would you take Parada or Lee? (I don’t know that there’s been much real chatter linking the Nats to Lee, but he may be available.)
Yes, I think Parada will be on the board when the Nats pick unless the Rangers take him. The O’s and Pirates have 1/1 catching prospects already. To me, it seems rather silly for the Rangers to take a long-long term project like Green considering their half-BILLION-dollar investment in Seager and Semien, but that’s their problem . . . and better their problem than ours.
KW
16 Jul 22 at 8:37 pm