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We’ve published a couple of Mock draft collections so far, and as we get closer to the draft we’re starting to see some solidification at the top. We’re now past the CWS, past the draft combine, and we’re getting close. These mocks run from late June all the way to the eve of the draft … where we got some decent consolidation of predictions.
We’re starting to see some new names slipping into the 8-10 range of this draft. We’ve gone from it being a “9-man draft” to a collection of 10-12 players who seem to be fitting. Those players are (in rough order of draft rank), with some commentary on each pick based on post-season performances:
- Charlie Condon: 3B/OF, University of Georgia: monster regional, then wasn’t that impressive in the super regionals. Mostly 1-1 on boards, but CW is that he’ll go 1-2 or 1-3 so that Cleveland can save some money at the top.
- Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State; so-so post-season doesn’t seem to be hurting his 1-1 chances, given that he’ll sign for a lot less than Condon.
- Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP Florida; Just blew up at the plate all post-season, really impressed. Also solidified his lack of ability on the mound.
- Nick Kurtz, 1B Wake Forest: almost no impact in the post-season.
- Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M; broke his ankle in a weird running play, missing his team’s run to the final. Was top 5, now likely drops.
- Hagen Smith, LHP starter, Arkansas: final start wasn’t great in the regionals.
- Chase Burns, RHP starter, Wake Forest; got out-pitched by Yesevage in his last start, and now
- J.J. Wetherholt, 2B/SS, West Virginia; poor regional but may sneak into top 5.
- Konnor Griffin, SS/CF, Jackson Prep (Flowood, Miss.); skipped MLB draft combine.
- Bryce Rainer, SS from Harvard Westlake HS in LA: went to MLB draft combine, showed 96 on the mound, impressed as per reports.
- James Tibbs, OF Florida State University: a couple of monster post-season games has him sneaking into the top 10 on some boards.
- Trey Yesevage, RHP, East Carolina: out-pitched Burns in his post-season start, now creeping into the top 10 in some mocks.
If you’d like to see some scouting reports, go to one of these main spots:
- MLBPipeline 2024 top 150 Draft Ranks with scouting reports (click on the player for the breakout to the right)
- Baseball America 2024 top 400 Draft ranks (paywall):
- Fangraphs The Board
Here’s the Mocks from Late June leading up to the draft.
- MLBpipeline team 6/20/24 mock: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Caglianone, Wetherholt. Nats at #10 take Griffen over Rainey.
- Sporting News/Edward Suetan 6/20/24 Mock: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Caglianone, Wetherholt. Nats at #10 take Rainey over Griffen. quite similar mock to above MLBpipeline one; exact same top 5 in the same order.
- MLBPipeline/Jim Callis 6/27/24 mock: Bazzana, Caglianone, Condon, Montgomery, Griffin (wow). Nats at #10 get Rainer. In this mock, Kurtz was on the board but the team still took the prep SS.
- Baseball America/Carlos Collazo Mock v5.0 7/1/24: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Caglianone. Nats at #10 take Griffen over Kurtz and Tibbs.
- CBSsports/Mike Axisa 7/3/24 mock: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Caglianone. Nats at #10 get Montgomery, who falls with the injury and an early pick of Yesevage in his mock. They leave Griffen, Moore, Tibbs, and Kurtz on the table.
- MLBpipeline/Mayo 7/5/24 mock: Bazzana, Condon, Caglianone, Montgomery, Wetherholt. Nats at #10 get Rainer.
- ESPN Staff Mock 7/5/24: Condon, Bazzana, Caglianone, Smith, Wetherholt. Nats at #10 take the power hitting Christian Moore 2B, Tennessee, over Rainer, which I don’t think is reasonable. I sense this “staff mock” is more about the staff guys doing a draft rankings versus the proclivities of what these teams would take. But, Moore, if the Nats take him, was a beast all year and, even though he’s 2B limited, could probably feature at 3B if he’s a 2B now. If he could hit in pros like he’s hit in college, look out.
- Bleacherreport/Joel Reuter 7/7/24 mock: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Caglianone, Wetherholt. Nats at #10 go Yesevage. In this mock, the two prep SS both go high, as does Montgomery, so Nats take Yesevage over Moore, Kurtz, Tibbs.
- The Athletic/Keith Law’s mock 3.0 7/10/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Kurtz, Caglianone. Nats at #10 take Yesevage over Griffen.
- Fangraphs/Longenhagen Mock draft v1.0 7/11/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. Nats at #10 take Griffen and Yesevage slips to #15.
- MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Mock 7/11/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Kurtz, Caglianone. Nats get Rainer, who isn’t taken earlier like in other mocks above us.
- ESPN/Kiley McDaniel mock 3.0 7/11/24: Wetherholt, Caglianone, Condon, Bazzana, Griffen. Nats take Tibbs over Kurtz or Yesevage here, in a very weird mock with different names than most anyone else.
- Sporting News/Eduard Sutelan mock 7/11/24: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Caglianone. Nats at 10 get Rainer. In a fun one, they have 3 full rounds of mocks: they have Nats taking local guy Griff O’Ferrall, SS, Virginia in the 2nd and Sawyer Farr, SS, Boswell (TX) in the third. So that’d be 3 short stops in a row.
- Baseball America Mock 6.0 7/11/24: Wetherholt, Condon, Burns, Bazzana, Caglianone. Nats take Kurtz as BPA after both prep SS gone, but still too early for Yesevage.
- CBSsports/Mike Axisa 7/13/24 mock: Bazzana, Condon, Smith, Montgomery, Caglianone. Nats go Griffen after Rainer taken early, but Yesevage and Kurtz still on board. I’m not sure I agree with his order here, having Wetherholt falling out of top 5 and Montgomery going so high.
- D1Baseball final mock 7/13/24: Wetherhold, Bazzana, Burns, Condon, Caglianone. nats take Montgomery after both prep SS are picked ahead. This does not seem credible; Condon is not falling out of the top 2.
- BleacherReport/ Joel Reuter’s final mock 7/13/24: Bazzana, Condon, Burns, Montgomery, Caglianone. nats at 10 take Yesevage over Griffen. I’d take this.
- ESPN/KIley McDaniel mock 3.0 7/13/24: Wetherholt, Caglianone, Condon, Bazzana, Griffen. nats take Tibbs over Kurtz, Yesevage. Would be hard to believe this top 5 and this Nats pick happen.
I may have missed a couple, but there’s been so many in the last couple days its hard to keep up.
After all these Mocks, what do I think top 5 is?
I think the top 5 will go:
- Bazzana: I think Cleveland gets significant cost savings over what Condon wants by taking Bazzana here (probably $1M), which will let them buy a prep kid in the 3rd round who has slipped (similar to what we did with Sykora last year). They take Bazzana and his superior hit tool over Wetherholt and his health issues.
- Condon: he probably goes for near slot here ($9.7M). He won’t slip past here.
- Burns: Colorado can’t get FAs pitchers to come there, so they have to breed pitchers, so taking the best available arm makes sense here. Burns has slightly better stuff and less injury history than Smith.
- Any one of Wetherholt/Montgomery/Kurtz/Bazzana: Oakland is always a wild-card team in the draft and could pivot, but it seems like it’ll be one of these four guys depending on wh goes 1-1.
- Chicago: Caglianone. this seems like a lock.
So, 4 of the first 5 seem to be consensus, with only Oakland as a wildcard.
After all these Mocks, who do I think the Nats will take?
Its a draft like this where I honestly wish MLB teams could trade draft picks. Because I think the Nats might find themselves wanting a guy like Yesevage (or, ahem Tommy White) who might go later in the 1st round but if they pick him at 10 they’ll overpay. I mean, if they could trade down 3-4 picks, pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd rounder, and then pick Yesevage … in an old-school NFL-style trade, wouldn’t you be for that? We can only wish.
That being said, I hate to say it, but i think we’ll end up with a prep SS and not a college player. It will either be Rainer or Griffen. It seems like it’ll be Griffen, since Rainey seems to be getting popped a bit earlier. If Montgomery falls due to his health, i’d be ecstatic. If Kurtz falls b/c he’s 1B only and the Nats take him, i’ll be upset. If they surprise and take Tibbs or Moore, I wouldn’t hate it. If Kurtz is there, and they take him versus Yesevage… i’ll be upset. If both Rainer and Griffen are off the board at #10, it means that someone like Kurtz or Montgomery is there for the taking.
If it was me? I’m taking Yesevage. I don’t care if he’s 13-14th on the board, i don’t care that he “only” pitched for ECU. He’s polished, healthy, no mechanical issues, 3 pitches, throws strikes, performed on the big stage at CWS playoffs. However all the pundits keep talking about how 1) the Nats new player evaluation staff is more prep friendly and 2) they scouted the hell out of Griffen and Rainer this year.
I like the thought of Yesavage too, but Ghost (Steve M.) at NatsTalk is reporting that the Nats will take a position player unless something screwy happens in the higher picks (as in, unless Burns or Hagen Smith falls). So they seem to be out on Yesavage and Caminiti, the top high school arm (at least according to everyone but Law, who has him at #27 on his board).
McDaniel and Law — the two most tuned in guys — are reporting that if Bazzana won’t come off wanting to be paid more than Skenes (he ain’t no Skenes, or Crews, or Langford) then Cleveland may switch to Wetherholt and shake up things at the top. There is also some late chatter that the Reds may see more of a ceiling for Caglianone than Condon. (Law thinks Condon has a much better handle on the strike zone than Caglianone.)
Honestly, it tells you a lot about this draft that two smallish guys who likely will end up at 2B and may have a ceiling of about 20 homers a year are being debated for the 1/1 pick. There is Condon, who Law calls “easily the top prospect in this year’s draft class,” so I don’t understand talk of him likely not going higher than #2, and maybe not until #4.
Mocks a few weeks ago suggested a chance that Montgomery could fall to the Nats at #10, but most now have him pretty solidly in the 4-8 range. The collegian several mocks have dropping is Kurtz (who Law has ranked ahead of Caglianone). If Kurtz makes it to #10, he would make a lot of sense for the Nats — a 1B/DH with plate discipline and power who could advance quickly.
Then there are the high schoolers, Griffin and Rainer. I don’t hate either one of them, I just don’t think the Nats taking a guy right now who likely is four or five years from the majors is going to help the rebuild in any way. And the Nats’ talent pool isn’t deep enough to afford the luxury of waiting until 2029 for one of these guys. Of the two, Rainer has the better hit tool, Griffin the higher potential power ceiling, but also less chance to stick at SS. Law doesn’t think the Nats will take Griffin specifically because of Green’s hit-tool struggles.
I don’t get McDaniel mocking Tibbs to the Nats (which he admits is just a guess), with Kurtz and Yesavage still on the board. I’d probably even take Waldschmidt ahead of Tibbs, although their profiles are very similar. But I don’t know why the Nats would want another outfielder, and there will be too many other guys available of similar second-tier talent to argue that either would be the “best player available.” (Montgomery clearly would be on the off chance that he were to fall.)
I also keep saying don’t sleep on Christian Moore for the Nats. Law really doesn’t like him (#37 on his board), but the Nats have a lot of recent connection with the Tennessee program from having drafted Lipscomb and Lawson and heavily scouting Dollander.
Last note: this is a crazy draft. There’s uncertainty from the very first pick on down. I don’t think that Condon or Bazzana would slide all the way to #10, but any of the others could. And if Bazzana’s price is too high, who knows? That was probably some of the reason that House fell all the way to #11.
KW
13 Jul 24 at 3:20 pm
Thanks for compiling all this info, Todd. I’ve been trying to keep up with the mocks, but the deluge of them in the past couple days has made this nearly impossible.
I agree with what KW says that this is a crazy draft. There’s almost no certainty, indeed. And yet, there’s a weird amount of certainty too. Of the nearly 20 mocks summarized above, I think every single one of them has 9 of the 10 same players.
With all that said, however, there’s always a couple teams that paid no attention to the mocks and make their own outlandish assessment of an obscure player, and then all the mocks fall apart. Just last year, we were all coming to terms with the fact that we’d get Paul Skenes. The year before – absolutely no one predicted Kumar Rocker would go 3rd, much less in the first round!
As I’ve said many times before, we’re drafting 10th in a 8 player draft. I’m hoping at least two teams will do something outlandish, and we’ll be fortunate to get whoever is left over of the top 8 collegians. If not, Yesavage would be my pick. I’d stay the hell away from Griffin, unless one of these new farm directors knows how to personally teach a player to make contact (which they don’t, as evidenced by Green’s 50 K%).
Will
13 Jul 24 at 5:44 pm
The funny thing is that the mocking pundits have been saying for weeks that this is a nine-player draft, but they can’t seem to agree on who the nine are. They generally list the top 10 who Todd has in this post (excluding Tibbs and Yesavage, although none of them would seem surprised if either went somewhere 7-9). So how are they getting to nine? Usually by excluding one of the high schoolers or Kurtz. So that’s who I’m guessing will be left when the Nats pick, (at least) one from among Kurtz, Rainer, or Griffin.
The top of the second tier seems to be Tibbs, Yesavage, Waldschmidt, Moore, and Caminiti. Seaver King used to be among the top 15 but seems to have slipped a little.
To me, guessing from the possibilities, the guys who make the most sense for the Nats would be Kurtz or Yesavage. I could see a case being made for Moore or King, but nearly everyone thinks that Kurtz’s bat skills are of higher caliber. If they’re picking from a small crop of similarly talented players, an outfielder or a high schooler make less sense.
KW
13 Jul 24 at 6:41 pm
by the way, I assume everyone saw the trade the Nats made … acquiring #39th overall pick and a prosepct for Hunter Harvey.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/royals-acquire-hunter-harvey-from-nationals.html
We get a comp 1st round draft pick and the Royals 2nd round pick in 2022 for a reliever. Love it.
Todd Boss
13 Jul 24 at 9:57 pm
Nats now picking #10, #39, #44, and #79. If you’re thinking about organizational need, for 39 or 44, I’d be looking at getting a catcher, namely Jake Cozart of NC State, or Caleb Lomavita should he happen to fall (some have him in the later first round). If they don’t take Yesavage in the first round, a college arm also could be in play at the 39/44 level.
Really, as crazy as the top of the draft is, it could get even crazier after the top 15 picks, with opinions and boards all over the place. There’s a (small) chance that controversial guys like Vance Honeycutt (UNC) or Tommy White (LSU) could still be on the board at #39.
Where have the Nats been having recent success in the early/mid rounds? SEC hitters: Jacob Young, Lipscomb, Pinckney. So let’s look at guys like Blake Burke (TN), Gage Miller (ALA), Jared Jones (LSU), Peyton Stovall (ARK), Dakota Jordan (Miss St). At least one or two of those should still be on the board at #79.
KW
13 Jul 24 at 10:23 pm
So, also of great importance to getting the #39 pick: another $2.3M in bonus money. They could go slightly underslot at #10 if the draft doesn’t fall they way they like, pick Yesevage and save a chunk (since he’s mostly projected to go 12-14), then add that to a $2.3 at #39 and get a mid-first round talent.
Todd Boss
14 Jul 24 at 9:31 am
Interesting comment by Law in the Pulse email newsletter from the Athletic this morning:
“Minor-league contraction has decreased the caliber of competition in the minors, especially at the lower levels, so many guys coming out of the SEC and ACC are unchallenged by high-A pitching or lineups.”
Indeed, the Nats pushed Crews (SEC), Morales (ACC), and Pinckney (SEC) quickly to AA last summer and started them there for their first full pro season this year. Law has commented elsewhere about how bad the contracted system is developmentally, particularly for younger players. High school players who normally would have started in the complex league and gotten exposure against college players in the NY/Penn League now often are just thrown into full-season A ball. Green and Cox are two significant high school investments who have really struggled and would have benefited from the steps that are now missing.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 9:44 am
FWIW, Law has been very negative about going underslot with an early pick in this draft. It’s such a thin crop that he doesn’t think guys available in the later rounds will be worth the overpay.
The extra pool money might actually allow the Nats to go in the opposite direction: take a college stud at #10 who has fallen because of his price.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 9:48 am
excellent point on the bonus money Todd, that thought had not occurred to me and in my mind makes this deal even better.
FredMD
14 Jul 24 at 10:22 am
Last-minute speculation mocking from Callis and Mayo:
https://www.mlb.com/news/final-mlb-mock-draft-2024?t=mlb-draft-coverage
They have the Nats ending up with . . . Rainer or Griffin. But they also have speculation that either/both could go much higher. It’s wild how much speculation there is with every single pick, all the way up to #1. Gives me more hope that one of the higher-touted collegians could slide to #10.
More from Callis about the Nats: “Florida State teammates Tibbs and third baseman Cam Smith are other possibilities, and rumors of an under-slot deal for California catcher Caleb Lomavita persist.” Wow, Lomavita would be a massive overreach according to nearly all boards.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 10:36 am
Let’s not sleep on the other piece of the Harvey deal, either — Cayden Wallace. He’s another of those SEC hitters I mentioned above who has moved up in good order, currently hitting .282 at AA. He’s probably at least Lipscomb-good, if not better. He’s primarily a 3B but has also played some corner OF. There’s good reason to believe that he can make the majors.
Hmm, MLB.com has already slotted Wallace in as the Nats’ #6 prospect. That seems aggressive, but I’ll take it:
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/nationals/cayden-wallace-691024
That’s an impressive return for a setup man with a 4.20 ERA.
As for this draft, remember 2021? Rocker and House were in the top five or six of every mock and list. Craziness started happening, and they fell to 10 and 11. This draft has a similar vibe to it. I don’t know who it’s going to be, but I have a hunch that someone who everyone thinks is going in the top five picks is going to fall to #10.
There are also screwy things in the speculations, like the A’s — the cheapest team in baseball — being pointed to as a landing spot for Bazzana, who is said to be pricing himself out of being 1/1. I would speculate in the other direction, with the A’s looking for a massive underslot deal with someone like Tibbs.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 1:09 pm
McDaniel’s last-minute 3.1 mock, although he admits that he’s guessing on basically every pick:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/40548158/2024-mlb-mock-draft-31-kiley-mcdaniel-predictions-final-picks-update
He has the Nats taking Tibbs, with Kurtz still on the board, but says on the Nats:
“I think Wetherholt is the target here, and with the increase in bonus pool money from their recently acquired compensation round pick (No. 39 overall), Washington could make a compelling case, but it’s just hard to float college players down the draft board in almost any scenario.”
Wow, we had some Wetherholt speculation a few weeks ago. It would be quite a coup if he were to fall. Failing that, I’m not sure of the logic of Tibbs over Kurtz. Kurtz has a higher FV grade on nearly every list and is at a position of more need for the Nats.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 5:27 pm
But that is an interesting public acknowledgment that the Nats now have big pool money to spend, and they could be telling the agents of several of the top-tier guys to keep the price high and we’ll meet it if your guy falls. Really could make the Nats the behind-the-scenes disrupters here.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 5:31 pm
I have a question that this group might be able to help with.
What is the mechanism by which players are able to force other teams to honor overslot bonus agreements? (Not the negotiating team itself – that makes sense as a repeat game between teams and agents – I mean other teams honoring / matching those deals.)
Like, I totally understand that a top high school target can have a number, and if the team won’t meet that number, they’ll go to college. But if their “real” number is, say, $2M but they negotiate with a team and get them to agree to $3M, I don’t see what’s stopping any team picking before that team from just picking them and reopening the negotiations — now with the only options for the player to come to terms or to go to school. That team doesn’t have to beat the negotiated number; they’d just have to beat the real number that would tempt the kid away from school.
I can’t imagine that there is a gentleman’s agreement among teams to not blow up these deals. But that’s the only way I can make sense of the way bonus demands play out during the draft.
Do any of you draft experts know what’s actually going on in those situations?
SMS
14 Jul 24 at 5:40 pm
I claim NO inside knowledge. But if a team reaches an agreement with an agent but then try to lowball after the draft, then that team’s name will be mud with all the agents, not just for drafts, but for free agency. So the gentleman’s agreements had better hold.
Different agents work different ways, but their ways are generally known. For example, when the Nats went public with the offers they made to Boras clients, they knew going in that those would numbers that wouldn’t work. Rizzo is no dummy and has been around the block a few times.
With draft picks, with the slot system, there’s a lot less post-draft negotiating than there used to be. The numbers generally are agreed on before the picks.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 7:02 pm
Kurtz to the A’s. Wetherholt dropping. Can he keep dropping?
KW
14 Jul 24 at 7:29 pm
Wetherholt and Cags still on the board after 5.
With both top pitchers gone in the top 5, there may be some Yesavage action in 6-9.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 7:36 pm
Now Cags and JJ gone at 7. The high schoolers and Montgomery are left for 8-9-10.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 7:46 pm
Moore to Angels at 8. Nats are going to have some options.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 7:52 pm
Baseball gods owe us one, we should get a break on a hyper athletic OF who has every tool but a working bat eventually
AG
14 Jul 24 at 7:52 pm
Pirates save us from Griffin. Probably Montgomery for the Nats, unless they really like Rainer. A number of boards have Montgomery 4-5. The Nats don’t really NEED another OF, but he’s a high-value player.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 7:57 pm
Seaver King???? Don’t totally hate it, but really surprised. Some hit tool issues. I do like getting a college player and an infielder, where the Nats lack depth.
This feels like your under-slot pick.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 8:03 pm
Wow. Seaver King from out of leftfield…
It feels like a reach and with the new found draft budget, it appears to me like the makings of a underslot pick.
With that said, King isn’t a massive reach. Fangraphs had him 11th and MLB 17th.
But here’s where the draft goes off the rails!
Will
14 Jul 24 at 8:04 pm
King’s stats:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=king–000sea
Law on King, who he had at 17:
King transferred from Division II Wingate University to Wake Forest this spring after an impressive summer for Team USA and on the Cape, hitting .424/.479/.542 in 71 plate appearances at the latter stop. He’s a very aggressive hitter who doesn’t take a lot of pitches and doesn’t whiff very often, showing plus bat speed, surprising power, and above-average speed on the bases.
King’s played four positions for the Deacs, with third base his most frequently played spot. He’s more than capable in center and I think you could send him out as a shortstop. He does tend to expand the zone too often, as he’s a good enough bad-ball hitter to get away with it now.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 8:08 pm
“He’s a very aggressive hitter who doesn’t take a lot of pitches”
That explains it!
Will
14 Jul 24 at 8:10 pm
King was ahead of Moore in most mocks until Moore’s big postseason. I’m sure he’s an under-slot, but not a big reach to do it, and he fits with Nat needs: college infielder who can move up quickly.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 8:11 pm
The Nats didn’t need an OF, but I hope they don’t regret passing on Montgomery. He was the top-of-the-draft elite player who fell to them.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 8:14 pm
King only struck out 12% of the time this season, in the ACC, so while he may be “aggressive,” he’s not in the same class of those who miss a lot when they’re being aggressive.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 8:20 pm
KW, I’m hoping for the best and I know he’s talented, but that description from Law, coupled with King’s high ground ball rate, sounds a lot like an ahletic Keibert Ruiz to me. I’m not sure the Nats are the organization best equipped to develop him. The scouts mostly preferred Montgomery and Rainer there, so I guess we will find out if the Nats know something almost everyone else missed. Here’s hoping.
Bland Moniker
14 Jul 24 at 8:31 pm
Obviously will write more … but Seaver King is such an out of left field pick that i’m shocked. NOT ONE mock i’ve ever seen had him in the top 10, not one pundit had the nats on him.
I agree with others: smells like an underslot pick to get more $$ to throw at comp-B and 2nd rounder.
Todd Boss
14 Jul 24 at 8:43 pm
Bland, I had a similar thought, except Luis Garcia. Both he and Ruiz don’t K much, but they also don’t walk, and they don’t make great contact on the bad balls that they do hit.
We’ll see. This organization doesn’t have much reputation for developing/fixing anyone. Wood seems to have made his fixes in the offseason. I do have my figures crossed about TJ White’s improvement over the last few weeks, though.
As for cost-savings with the under slot, there is a good bit of college talent that is sliding, so there may be some interesting options at 39 and 44.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 8:57 pm
I thought the O’s would go Tommy White over Honeycutt, but they got one of the two big power bats. They also have a track record of fixing guys like Honeycutt, who could be a monster if they do.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 9:06 pm
Honeycutt could be the next Adam Dunn, but worse.
Todd Boss
14 Jul 24 at 9:09 pm
I wasn’t a Honeycutt fan. Definitely White > Honeycutt.
I was just going to write that Caminiti was sliding, but the Braves just took him.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 9:15 pm
I was trying to figure out what high schooler the Nats might be saving their $$$ for.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 9:18 pm
There will likely be 3rd or 4th rounders with ACC/SEC batting stats better than King’s, but I do love his athleticism and hope he’s more like Garcia than Ruiz. I guess in good news, if there’s a stop-hitting-everything-weakly whisperer out there, the Nats can hire that coach and improve a bunch of players. Thats efficient.
At this point, with Caminitti gone, I’m not sure there is anyone falling who justifies King as a savings pick. I hope the Nats have a plan.
Bland Moniker
14 Jul 24 at 9:24 pm
OK, I thought a power team like the O’s, Braves, or Phils might take Tommy White. He’s a high-profile guy who might be a Boras client. Could he be the one who the Nats have promised the extra $$$? Or is he just sliding because he’s sliding?
KW
14 Jul 24 at 9:34 pm
KW, I’m lookig at White too. I assume he’s sliding because he’s sliding after a less impressive season than expected. I think it’s hard to push college guys down much. I’d be thrilled if he gets to the Nats.
Bland Moniker
14 Jul 24 at 9:38 pm
Boras is Crews’s agent, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s White’s.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 9:41 pm
I know White was in a bunch of early projections so the mock draft writers could muse about pairing him with Dylan Crews and replicating their success at LSU but I don’t think actual scouts are high on the kid. He’s a 5’11 240lb unathletic DH prospect, with questionable swing decisions, not really a profile you see drafted highly
AG
14 Jul 24 at 9:59 pm
Caleb Lomavita is also still on the board. Nats were said to be talking to him about the first round. I don’t see him being an over-slot guy, though. I’m still betting on White, who I like.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 10:07 pm
3 picks to go and White is sitting there as the 3rd best available per mlb’s board. Interestingly, Brody Becht is right there too … he’s a name who I saw in mocks going a lot higher. If the nats want an Arm, that could be it. If they want the famous guy who they might have taken #10 overall last Summer … he could be there.
Todd Boss
14 Jul 24 at 10:08 pm
Ryan Sloan’s a big high school pitcher who has been dropping. Could also be a Nat over-slot guy.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 10:10 pm
Brecht just went. Would have been a nice get for the Nats.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 10:11 pm
Ding-ding — Lomavita. Don’t see him as the over-slot guy, though. Must be coming at #44.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 10:13 pm
If White is there at 44 … do they take him? Lomavita a solid pick
Todd Boss
14 Jul 24 at 10:14 pm
Nats are doing well drafting for need: middle infielder and catcher. My other need is a big bat for 1B/DH.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 10:14 pm
White or Sloan would be my over-slot guesses for #44.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 10:15 pm
White to A’s. Sigh.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 10:16 pm
Luke Dickerson — there’s our HS over-slot. Law had him at #59. Law’s take:
Dickerson came on later this spring in a draft that is still very light on high school hitters up the middle, showing a strong right-handed swing with nascent power and a chance to stay somewhere up the middle, more likely at second than in center. He doesn’t have more than average bat speed, but so far he’s made up for it with the strength to create good contact, and the ball does come off his bat pretty well. The Virginia commit can show plus speed but doesn’t always get there out of the box, with enough speed to try centerfield but perhaps not the first-step quickness you want at that position.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 10:23 pm
Law on Lomavita, who others liked more than he did:
Lomavita can catch and throw well enough that he’s going to remain behind the plate, with solid contact skills despite an unusual approach. I think he has the lowest walk rate of anyone on this ranking, however, at 4.7 percent, and while we aren’t selling jeans here, that’s an alarming figure that lines up with his chase rate of 37 percent. He hits with no stride at all, starting from a wide base and staying there, with a short swing that cuts off most of the power he could get from his lower half. He’s a solid receiver who will almost certainly remain a catcher for the long term, so he doesn’t have to hit a ton to profile as a soft regular, but if you can’t tell a ball from a strike, we have some problems.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 10:28 pm
McDaniel had Lomavita at #24 and Dickerson way down at #77.
KW
14 Jul 24 at 10:32 pm
McDaniel on Lomavita:
A native of Hawai’i, Lomavita continued to cement himself as one of the best hitting catching prospects in this draft class by posting a .322/.395/.586 slash line with 15 home runs for the Golden Bears this season. Expected to stick at the position throughout his pro career, Lomavita has also proven himself against the best competition by hitting over .300 in consecutive summers in the Cape Cod League.
[Scratching my head wondering if he and Law are even talking about the same player, LOL.]
KW
14 Jul 24 at 10:38 pm
New posted on the results for today.
Todd Boss
14 Jul 24 at 10:50 pm