Here’s a quick recap with some thoughts on day 3 of the 2024 MLB Draft, rounds 11-20
Reminder: Draft tracking Links
- MLB Draft Tracker: updated for first 10 slots with all the info for our draftees plus Twitter accounts.
- List of all Slot values for 2024
- The Nats Draft Tracker master XLS, which I’m building out for 2024 as we go. With the trade we just made, our bonus pool is 13,895,100, but with the 5% buffer we can go up to 14,589,855 on our first 10 picks and 11th-20th rounders who get more than $150k.
11th Round, 320 Overall: Merrett Beeker, a LHP starter Coll jr from Ball State.
11th rounders are generally where you’ll find interesting over-slot deals made, since there’s a flat $150k bonus structure for each player and there’s no “slot savings” for under-slot deals like there are for the back half of day 2. The Nats have signed a couple of above-slot 11th rounders in the past (Luke Young in 2022, JT Arruda in 2019 for example) and last year grabbed a Juco guy named Gavin Austin in the same gambit but couldn’t get him to sign (he was drafted in the 8th round this year by Pittsburgh).
That being said, this year we take Beeker, a LHP starter who was Ball State’s #2/Saturday starter this year and had some pretty intriguing numbers. He went 9-3 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.22 Whip, but he had 128 Ks in 81ip! that’s a 14 K/9 rate for a starter, which was good for #6 in the nation this year. The top 5 K/9 leaders ahead of him include 2 first rounders Hagen & Smith, plus 2nd rounder Brecht and 4th rounder Langevin, so that’s heady company. An interesting pick for sure, and not really one that looks like it needs an overslot deal.
12th round, 350 overall: Alexander Meckley, RHP college Junior starter/reliever from Coastal Carolina.
BA Ranked him #421 this year. Their scouting report: He was hit around a bit in his first 43 innings as a starter and reliever but has a big arm with a fastball that sits 93-94 and touches 97 with riding life from a high release point. Meckley has a four- and two-seam variation on his fastball and will spin a low-80s slider and upper-70s curveball with more depth.
This pick is interesting. Meckley started the year as CCU’s Friday night starter, and he started the year really well. He went 7ip and gave up 2hits in march against CWS team JMU. He held his own against early season opponents like Ball State, Indiana, and Michigan. Then suddenly he fell off a cliff, ending with a 2ip/8Run embarrassment against Wake Forest. At which point, CCU took him out of the rotation entirely. He ended the season with a 7.52 ERA and a 1.44 whip. He was a Juco transfer into Coastal, and in Juco his numbers were decent, so perhaps the team had a local area scout who remembered the guy. One has to think he’s relatively signable at the $150k slot here; if you get drafted the year after you put up an ERA in the 7s, you should probably take the money and give pro ball a try.
13th round, 380 overall: Bryant Olson, LHP reliever college junior from Mercer
Olson was Mercer’s closer for a while this season, finishing with 8 saves and some ugly stat lines. 6.41 ERA, 2.25 whip. 39/29 K/BB in 26 innings. Not much info out there on him, but a lefty with big K numbers could indicate a project the team is willing to work on.
14th round: 410 overall: Yoel Tejeda Jr. a draft-eligible Sophomore RHP from Florida State.
Tejeda is a massive (6’8″) guy, who transferred out of Florida and to Florida State for 2024. He got a couple of opener-starter gigs but was mostly in the bullpen for the FSU team. He got shelled in a game on May 26th against Duke, where he walked in a run and gave up a grand slam, and didn’t appear the rest of the season. The gamer from that game was blunt; calling his use an “experiment” that continued to go badly. His season numbers: 5.95 ERA in just 19ip, and more walks than strikeouts.
Why did he never pitch after May 26th? Injury? Or banishment to the bench? Either way, I wonder if he’s more likely to enter the transfer portal than he is to end his college career on this note. He turned down mid-teen money out of HS two years ago (he was drafted 18th round by Pittsburgh) and maybe he’ll do it again.
That makes four straight day-3 college arms. They’ve done so well in the past couple of drafts with this strategy (Sthele, Sullivan, Amaral last year, Lord and Luckham the year before, Alvarez in 2021…) that you can’t blame them for this strategy. Does anyone want to bet that one of these mid-teens college juniors won’t make a fast jump?
15th round: 440 overall: Sir Jamison Jones, a HS Catcher from St. Rita HS (IL)
BA ranked 372. Their report: Jones is one of the most physical players in the 2024 prep class and has tons of strength currently with a 6-foot-3, 225-pound frame. He can generate huge fly balls and has exciting power upside because of his massive strength, though he’ll need to refine his approach significantly and make more contact to fully tap into that raw power. His pitch recognition is inconsistent and he was also late against fastballs a bit too often. Jones has a big arm behind the plate, but he’ll need to work to stick behind the plate and might fit best as a first baseman. He’s a well below-average runner. Jones is committed to Oklahoma State.
I about spit out my drink when I saw this pick. A High School catcher in the 15th round? And, after doing the BA and PerfectGame research, apparently a good one. He’s been at all the showcase events, is one of the top ranked players coming out of Illinois, and he’s got a commitment to a big-time college in Oklahoma State.
Well, if you’re saving your pennies, this is where they could go. But a 6-3 225 guy screams 1B, not C, but he also seems like a project. Is he really signable here? He’s not a top 100 ranked guy, so we’re not talking millions to buy him out of Ok State, so I wonder what the angle here is.
16th round, 470 overall: Nolan Hughes, college senior LHP from Xavier
Hughes was played the first three years of his career at Fordham, then transferred to Xavier for 2024. He was mostly a bullpen guy, who got 4 starts on the year and faced some decent competition admirably. Season stats were mediocre until you see the K line. 4.33 ERA, 1.90 whip. 65/52 K/BB in 35ip. That is an astonishing 16.7 K/9 rate. He’s a big velocity lefty, can touch 98 with off-speed stuff that includes an 81mph sweeping curve and an 87mph changeup. That must look like an eephus pitch. Clean mechanics, looks solid in the little video snippets we can find. A project, but has some tools to work with.
17th round, 500 overall: Gavin Bruni, LHP starter from Ohio State
BA #384. Their scouting report: Bruni was an arm-strength lefthander who was already touching 96 mph in high school, but also had real control questions. Three years later and he’s still largely that sort of pitcher. A 6-foot-3, 205-pound starter, Bruni sits around 90 mph with his fastball and will run it up to 95-96 with above-average carry on the pitch but below-average command. He mixes in a slider around 80 and a curveball in the mid 70s that both have solid spin. He has a low-80s changeup that he rarely throws and isn’t likely to be a big piece of his arsenal moving forward without significant improvement. Bruni has been a full-time starter for Ohio State, but likely projects as a reliever in pro ball thanks to a career walk rate around 17%.
A weekend starter for Ohio State, which isn’t really that big of a baseball program. 6.19 ERA this season with not impressive peripherals. As the writeup says, he projects as a lefty reliever in pro ball, where he can sit more in the 95-96 range for an inning.
18th round: 530 overall. Teo Banks, OF (CF) college jr from Tulane.
Banks was Tulane’s CF and #2 hitter in the post-season; not sure if that’s where he played the whole season, but that’s where he ended it. Slash line for the year: .265/.380/.543 with some power and some speed. He’s a bigger dude, (6’2 205) so he might project as a corner in pro ball. I wish he had a better hit tool this year, but for what its worth he hit .301 as a sophomore and .317 as a freshman. He started part of freshman, all of sophomore and all of junior. He seems sign-able here.
19th round: 560 overall: Ryan Minckler, college junior RHP from Niagara University
Minckler served as kind of a long-man reliever for Niagara this year, 20 games, 50+ innings, with decent numbers. Initially went to UVA but never appeared, so he transferred and was in the Niagara rotation last year. Never seems to go more than 3-4 innings an appearance. Probably immediately projects to be a pro reliever.
His twitter has a pinned post from June 30th that says he’s transferring to Arizona State. He’s listed as a college junior but he redshirted his freshman year so technically he has two years of eligibility left, so me thinks he’s going to ASU and won’t sign. It’s not often you get to move to a major baseball program, in Arizona … which is about as far away a place from a college perspective as you can get from Niagara.
20th round: 590 overall: Colby Shelton, a SS/3B college junior from Florida
BA scouting report: Shelton had a standout freshman season with Alabama in 2023, when he led the club with 25 home runs en route to a second-team All-America selection. After the season, Shelton transferred to Florida, where he continued to show a powerful lefthanded bat. His production took a slight step backward in 2024, when he hit .256/.381/.573 with 20 home runs in 61 games. A 6-foot, 200-pound lefthanded hitter, Shelton is strong with all-fields power that comes with plenty of swing-and-miss. He sets up with a slightly crouched stance that includes a high handset and small leg lift, though he can be a bit rigid and stiff at times. His career strikeout rate sits in the 24-25% range, and he has contact questions versus all pitch types and an aggressive approach that leads to too many swings out of the zone. Because of Shelton’s back-to-back 20-homer seasons in the Southeastern Conference, some scouts think he will hit for enough impact to profile as a bat-first infielder. A shortstop now, Shelton profiles better at either third base or second base thanks to just OK actions and quickness. He can throw from multiple angles nicely and has enough arm strength for the left side of the infield. He is a fringe-average runner. He fits anywhere from round two to four.
So, this is the most interesting pick of the draft for this team. 20th rounder but MLB has him ranked #133 and BA has him all the way up at #64. Why did he fall? He was a 2nd team All American after the 2023 season, then left Alabama to go to Florida. He struggled this year: .254/.374/.551 but still hit 20 homers for one of the best teams in the land. In Florida’s final game, a loss to Texas A&M in Omaha, he played SS and batted cleanup. This is a big-time player. Can the team come with 3rd round money ($1M?) to sign him? Maybe; I can’t see an obvious massive over-slot guy anywhere else here, and I suspect they’re saving at least that amount off their 1st rounder.
We’ll do a draft class recap post later this week, summarizing.
thanks so much for the platform to follow the draft and the accumulation of all the data.
I think Dickerson may take some extra slot dollars but if not then Shelton may be the fall back option. if they have enough to do both I’d be thrilled.
FredMD
17 Jul 24 at 9:38 am
Shelton is actually a draft-eligible sophomore, which is why he has some leverage to get paid a little more. That said, he will turn 22 in December, and come next summer, drafting teams won’t look too favorably on a guy who is already 22.5. So I think there’s a very good chance that he signs now. Here is the MLB.com profile:
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/colby-shelton-701333
The comment that he “showed up in better shape” is interesting. The stories about him online all mention what a hard worker he is.
If they sign Shelton and Dickerson to go with King, Wallace, and Randal Diaz (5th round), that introduces A LOT of new infield talent into the system, which was much needed.
I agree about Sir Jamison — a high schooler who is already 6-3, 225, very likely isn’t going to stay behind the plate. Hello 1B/LF!
They SHOULD have the money to sign these guys. There were plenty of under-slot guys in the first 10 rounds.
Of the pitchers taken on the third day, Beeker was the only one with decent numbers. I’m sure all of them throw hard, some so hard that they have significant difficulties locating home plate. I’m sure the scouts ID’d them as guys who might be fixable. We’ll see. In this pitching-starved draft, there’s nothing to lose.
KW
17 Jul 24 at 9:57 am
If Shelton is such a good idea for a chance to sign for big bucks, then why would they wait until number 20 to pick him? Some of the 11-19 pics are not that thrilling.
EdDC
17 Jul 24 at 10:28 am
EdDC, that is why this guys get the big bucks while we play amateur GM.
FredMD
17 Jul 24 at 11:12 am
Re Shelton: Maybe they were giving him as much time as he needed to try and find a better deal / convince him that there wasn’t a better deal out there?
But more likely it’s just a backup plan against the unlikely chance that one of the planned overslot deals falls through.
I guess we’ll see soon enough.
SMS
17 Jul 24 at 11:28 am
Several teams took shots in the 20th round on ranked players who may be difficult to sign, including the Nats. Seven of the players picked had MLB.com rankings that would have put them in the top five rounds, including Shelton. Most are high schoolers.
The new factor in the equation is NIL. Teams are having to bid against the university collectives. That said, one doubts that many schools have rich enough collectives to have considerable bucks left over for baseball players after spending lavishly on football and basketball. But it is at least some help, particularly since few college baseball players are actually on full scholarship, with only 11.5 scholarships per school.
Frankly, I think MLB should be subsiding college baseball instead of bidding against it for high schoolers, all the more with the contraction of the developmental lower minors.
KW
17 Jul 24 at 11:36 am
@edDC: why did Shelton wait until round 20? I have a theory. It is an open secret that players (and their agents or “advisors”) can manipulate the draft. Lets say Shelton got a call from the Nats after he fell into the round 6-7 range and the Nats said to him, “we’re going to save some money to draft you; would you sign for $1.5M? And he says, “yes you bet.” Now, every team that calls him after that to ask him if he’ll sign for $X he’ll say, “nope, i’ll only sign for $1.5M)” and the team moves on. Why waste a draft pick, especially in the top 10 rounds, on a guy who has already told you he isn’t signing. He has leverage; he can go back to school.
this continues in the mid-teens; teams call players and say, “will you sign for $150k” and if They say no, hang up, move on. So Shelton fields all these calls knowing now that $150k is way, way below what he’ll take. Meanwhile, the Nats also know this, so why bother taking the guy in the 11th when they know they can get him in the 20th with the same deal paramters.
that’s my theory, which if true supports two facts: 1) he’s signable and 2) we saved enough in top 10 rounds go sign him for his dollar amount.
Todd Boss
17 Jul 24 at 12:08 pm
I think it was Carlos Collazo of Baseball America who posted a couple of days ago that something like 98% of the guys who were drafted in the last few years have signed. It was in the upper 90s. Between the new CBA rules and the draft only 20 rounds, teams really want to know if a guy is going to sign before they spend a pick on him. It’s an even bigger deal with picks in the top 10 rounds, as you lose the slot value in pool money if the player doesn’t sign. So there’s no “if” about Dickerson; they already knew his number. I’m sure they know Shelton’s too.
KW
17 Jul 24 at 12:44 pm
@Todd, you’re probably on to something. You’re describing what Longenhagen at FanGraphs has been calling “floating”. So this definitely happens. Whether the Nats floated Shelton is another question, but coupled with KW’s comment about unsigned players becoming an incredibly rare breed, it seems like a solid theory.
With that said, I’d bet that 20th round picks signing rate plummets. IIRC, the Nats haven’t signed any of their 20th rounders since shortening the draft to 20 rounds. So I think Shelton is still a long shot.
Will
18 Jul 24 at 4:56 am
There were seven players taken in the 20th round who had MLB.com rankings. Six were high schoolers, plus Shelton. So that seemed to be the round where several teams took flyers. We’ll see. The Nats took several guys in earlier rounds who should come in under slot, and since they took Dickerson a round or to before projected, his slot value is already a significant bonus. I would think they’ll have the money to sign Shelton. They know what his price is.
KW
18 Jul 24 at 9:33 am
% of first 10 round picks who sign: I did a post on exactly that last year. https://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18151
Stats: Just 46 total players picked in the top 10 rounds in the last 11 drafts failed to sign. That’s out of nearly 4,000 players picked in that time, a pretty small percentage.
Todd Boss
18 Jul 24 at 9:59 am
@Will: have we ever signed our last round draft pick? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY/edit?usp=sharing
Not counting the covid draft in 2020, you have to go back to 2017 when we signed our 40th rounder. In 2013 we managed to sign our 50th rounder, as we did in 2007. but yes, for the most part the last pick of our drafts has almost always been a HS kid picked as a favor to a scout or employee (like, their kid, or their cousin).
Todd Boss
18 Jul 24 at 10:03 am
Hey, I laughed when they picked Darren Baker again, all the more since Dusty was gone by that time. He’s been about the only “legacy” pick they’ve had who has actually done anything.
KW
18 Jul 24 at 10:06 am
Does Marquis Grissom count as a legacy pick?
Will
18 Jul 24 at 6:51 pm
@will: does Grissom count as a legacy pick? No. he was a 13th rounder in a 20 round draft, that’s too early to throw away picks.
ESPN/Kiley McDaniel’s review of our draft was quite positive. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/40575431/mlb-draft-2024-kiley-mcdaniel-recap-analysis-all-30-teams
He was pretty high on Lomavita, Garcia, Diaz. Talked up King and Dickerson too. Its paywall, so here’s his text:
Best value: Caleb Lomavita, C at 39th overall
Where best player drafted ranks on team list: 9th (Seaver King)
Sleeper to watch: Davian Garcia, RHP (No. 170). This is the player I would’ve added to my draft rankings once other players started pulling their name out of the draft Sunday. He worked 92-94 and hit 97 mph this spring with top-of-the-zone shape and a sweeper that flashed swing-and-miss quality. Also keep an eye on fifth-rounder shortstop Randal Diaz, whose power might still be improving after a fall hamate surgery.
One big thought: The Nats targeted up-the-middle types with plus athleticism and above-average power projection on Day 1. King likely came with some savings and will need some development but has the tools to be an above-average everyday player at a number of different positions. Lomavita was the consensus best catcher in the draft but went third among the three leading candidates, likely for a bit over slot. He’s still raw, as well, but has All-Star upside if it clicks. Dickerson is a plus runner who might move to center field eventually, but the former hockey player has the components to be a steal if things click in pro ball.
Todd Boss
18 Jul 24 at 11:13 pm
Continuing a trend; here’s Keith Law’s draft review. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5643872/2024/07/19/mlb-draft-2024-national-league-report/
Washington Nationals
The Nationals took Wake Forest shortstop/center fielder Seaver King (1) with the 10th pick, taking the first-year Demon Deacon, who transferred in from Division II Wingate, betting on his athleticism and upside after he hit .308/.377/.577 with a ton of hard contact. He swings hard and the ball comes off his bat really well, although he did tend to expand the zone too easily because he was such a good ‘bad-ball’ hitter for the level — which is not something I ever bank on continuing in pro ball.
They used the pick they acquired from Kansas City the day before the draft to take Cal catcher Caleb Lomavita (CBA), a solid defender with very high contact rates but also a huge allergy to taking pitches. He walked just 4.7 percent of the time this year and swung at pitches out of the zone 37 percent of the time. For a catcher to be a regular, the bar is really low, but Lomavita just swung at it.
Infielder Luke Dickerson (2) has a strong right-handed swing with the potential for 55 or 60 power down the road, and he’s a 60 runner underway who may end up in center field rather than staying at shortstop. The New Jersey prep has mostly showed average bat speed, however, and we’ll have to see if he can continue to hit when facing better velocity.
Texas Tech catcher Kevin Bazzell (3) was one of the best contact hitters in the draft, so clearly the Nats were targeting these guys, even after he missed some time with mono earlier in the spring. He doesn’t walk much and it’s below-average power, so his best path to being a regular is staying behind the plate, where he has the arm and agility to stick with some work.
Arizona left-hander Jackson Kent (4) had success in the Wildcats’ rotation this year with a four-pitch mix and enough strike-throwing to get by. He works with more control than command, showing a 90-93 mph fastball, a plus changeup, and two average breaking balls, so if he tightens up the command just a little bit he could be a mid-rotation starter.
Shortstop Randal Diaz (5) is a plus defender whose power came on this spring after he recovered from a hamate injury in 2023. He’s from Bayamón, Puerto Rico, but came to Indiana State after he was undrafted out of high school.
Right-hander Davian Garcia (6) has been up to 98 with huge vertical break and an above-average slider, striking out 28.5 percent of batters in his one year at Florida Gulf Coast University after he spent two years at junior colleges.
Right-hander Robert Cranz (7) transferred to Oklahoma State this year from Wichita State and was dominant out of the pen, with a 31.6 percent strikeout rate and 6.4 percent walk rate in 49 2/3 innings. He was almost all fastball/slider this spring, 92-94 with the slider a 55, but he has four pitches and may be able to start even with a relatively short arm action.
Iowa outfielder Sam Petersen (8) hit .333/.459/.571 for the Hawkeyes but was limited by injuries to 33 games. He’s a 70 runner and has 60 raw power, so there’s real upside here if he can just stay on the field.
Todd Boss
19 Jul 24 at 9:35 am