Last post on the Draft, which i’ve spent far too much time on this week.
Now that we’re 21 picks in, and the data has been fully updated in the Draft Tracker, Here’s some breakdowns and thoughts on the 21 players we picked.
- 19 College, 2 HS picks
As usual we loaded up on College players. The two HS picks were a 2nd rounder and a speculative pick on a 15th rounder, which again is pretty on-brand for our typical draft.
- Of the 19 college: 16 were Soph/Jrs with eligibility, just 3 were “Senior Signs” or Grad students.
Compare this to last year, when we drafted eight college seniors. Now, perhaps this is a remnant of the Covid year working its way through the system (meaning, many of last year’s seniors were actually 3rd year eligible due to the lost 2020 season). However, we’ve drafted a ton of guys who still could go back to school if they don’t like the number. Top 10 rounds i’m not too worried, but a few of these mid-teen guys may pass (see below) for various reasons.
- My guesses on over/under slot from top 10: 6 Under, 4 slot, 1 over.
The top 10 rounds are what really counts for over/under slot, and here’s pick by pick what I think happens:
- 1st King. Slot $5.9M: I think he signs for less, like $1.5M less, since he projected mid-teens.
- 1-S: Lomavita. Slot $2.3m: signs for slot, maybe a smidge more b/c he’s Boras client and of course he will get it, since Boras has extracted ridiculous $ from us for years.
- 2nd Dickerson. Slot $2.1m: I think he goes overslot, like maybe $400-$500k over.
- 3rd Bazzell. Slot $980k: I think he goes for slot, maybe a smidge more.
- 4th Kent. Slot $676k: signs for slot or close to it.
- 5th Diaz. Slot $490k: Underslot, by perhaps $200k
- 6th Garcia. Slot $372k: underslot, by perhaps $100k
- 7th Cranz. Slot $290k: slightly underslot by maybe $75k
- 8th Peterson. Slot $230k: Sighs for slot
- 9th Ross. Slot $198k: senior sign for $10k, saving $188k or so
- 10th Johnson. Slot $185k. small college sign for $10k, saving $175k or so.
Honestly, I only see one obvious over-slot pick in the top 10 in Dickerson, and he’s already at $2.1M slot, so just giving him another few hundred thousand puts him into 1st round money, which should be what he needs to forgo college. Working the numbers above, I see savings of about $2.2M, giving $500k of it to Dickerson, leaving about $1.7M in overages for rounds 11-20. Which we’ll get to in a bit when talking sign-ability below.
- 11 Pitchers, 10 position players overall
- But, 7 position, 4 pitchers in top 10, and our first 4 picks were position players.
Good balance in the draft overall, but the top of this draft was entirely about hitters. Which is interesting, since we have not really focused on big-time arms at the top of the draft now for a few years running. To wit:
- 2024 draft: 5 of the first 6 picks were position players.
- 2023 draft: 6 of the first 7 picks were position players
- 2022 draft: 5 of the first 6 picks were position players.
- 2021 draft: 4 of the first 5 picks were position players.
Compare to
- 2019 (4 of top 6 arms)
- 2018 (6 of top 7 arms)
- 2017 (9 of top 10 picks arms)
Is this a pivot in draft strategy for the franchise? It seems like it. For years Rizzo drafted a gazillion arms and used them as trade currency to acquire position players. Now it seems like the strategy is reversed, with the bulk of our prospect depth coming in bats. We have more top OF prospects than we know what to do with, and we face a pending OF log-jam (Wood, Young in bigs now, with Crews, Hassell, Lile coming soon, and guys like Green, Vaquero, Cox maybe in the distant future, and that’s before remembering we also have Thomas, Call, Garrett on the 40-man). Not to mention we have an All-Star SS, a 1st rounder at 3B in AAA, now another decent 3B prospect in AA, and we just drafted three SS/3B projected guys in the first 3 rounds of the 2024 draft.
As for Arms, we grabbed a slew of them in the teens, which has served the team well in previous drafts. We’ve picked up guys who have flown through the minors despite being drafted in the high teens, an amazing feat considering how difficult is has been for our 2nd rounders to amount to anything historically (a rant for another time).
- Lots of positional flexibility in the guys we drafted
This seems to be a trend with the Nats, and the league in general. If you look at the guys we signed last off-season, they all had multi-position capabilities. Look at the position players we just picked up and you see a lot of the same:
- King: played 4 positions for Wake this year (CF, SS, 3B, 2B)
- Lomavita: Catcher only
- Dickerson: Prep SS, but projects to be 2B, CF capable
- Bazzell: played both C and 3B. If he can play 3B, he can play at least 1B and maybe 2B
- Diaz: SS and 3B this year
- Peterson: CF but can play all 3 OF positions
- Ross played 1B, LF, RH this year.
- Jones: HS C but projects to 1B/corner OF slugger
- Banks: CF in college but can play all 3 OF positions.
- Shelton: college SS but played 3B and can cover anywhere on the dirt
So that’s good.
- Signability: Of the 11th-20th rounders: 6 look easily sign-able, 2 look like they’ll be tougher signs, 2 would need a lot more money
I’m going to assume that we sign all top 10 round picks, because that’s just what happens now. Nearly 99% of the picks in the top 10 rounds have signed since the slot bonus system went in place.
Here’s a quick summary of 11-20 and sign-ability:
- 11th Beeker: Signable, maybe a little above $150k
- 12th Meckley, signable for $150k
- 13th Olson, signable for $150k or less even
- 14th Tejeda, may be tougher to sign, in that he’s a RS soph with 2 years of eligibilty.
- 15th Jones, may be tough to sign as a HS kid with a big name college commitment, but he’s also not a top 100 prep recruit. Maybe he signs if he gets a 7-figure bonus.
- 16th Hughes: senior draftee, signable at $150k or less even.
- 17th Bruni: signable
- 18th Banks: signable
- 19th Minckler: tough sign in that he just got an offer to go to ASU
- 20th Shelton; intriguing over-slot discussion, see below.
Do we have enough money to get both Jones and Shelton? Maybe. If my above accounting is right, we might have about $1.7M in spare bonus money. BUT, that’s before we add in the 5% buffer, worth another $700k or so. So, that’s about $2.4M total. Could we get Shelton for $1.5M and Jones for $1M? That’d be roughly mid 2nd round money for Shelton and top of 3rd round money for Jones. Maybe, Maybe. That’d make for a heck of a successful draft if they could pull it off.
- Regional breakdown of players:
This team for years has been super heavy in the southwest regions (Texas, Oklahoma). This year i see a bit of a departure.
- West Coast: 2: one from AZ, one from CA (Lomavita, Kent)
- Southeast: 6: 3 from FL, 1 from GA, 1 from SC, 1 from NC (Garcia, Tejada, Shelton, Olson, Meckley, King)
- Southwest: 4: 1 from TX, 1 from OK, 1 from LA, 1 from MS (Bazzell, Cranz, Banks, Ross)
- Northeast: 3: 1 from NJ, 1 from NY, 1 from MD (Dickerson, Johnson, Minckler)
- Midwest: 6: 2 from OH, 2 from IN, 1 from IL, 1 from IA (Diaz, Peterson, Beeker, Jones, Hughes, Bruni)
So that’s interesting. that’s basically 9 players from “cold weather” states in the northeast and midwest. Just a couple from their typical heavy hunting grounds of TX and OK.
- Conference breakdown of college players
Here’s a conference breakdown of the schools the 19 college draftees came from:
- Pac12: 2 (Arizona and Cal)
- ACC: 2 (Florida State, Wake Forest)
- SEC: 2 (Florida, Ole Miss)
- Big12 2 (Ok state, Texas Tech)
- Big10: 2 (Iowa, Ohio State)
- MEAC: 1 (Ball State)
- SBC: 1 (Coastal Carolina)
- Atlantic Sun: 1 (FGCU)
- MVC: 1 (Indiana State)
- Southern 1 (Mercer)
- MAAC 1 (Niagara)
- AAC 1 (Tulane)
- Big East 1 (Xavier)
- America East 1 (UMBC)
That’s a lot of players from a lot of pretty random baseball conferences. Remember; the entire CWS was from the ACC and the SEC.
All in all I think the Nats did OK, particularly for what was considered a very weak draft. Of course there will forever be quibbles about guys they passed on. In the 1st round, that likely will be Montgomery, Rainer, and maybe Yesavage, who a lot of teams passed on.
King is somewhat of a wild card, but I give the Nats credit for really drafting for need. I was begging last year that they take a middle infielder in the top three rounds because of need, and that need hasn’t gone away. This year they drafted five infielders (and traded for another) and three catchers, including two with high picks.
Right now, King reminds me of a Kolten Wong/Tommy Edman/Josh Harrison/Chris Taylor type of player (around 20 bWAR). The next step up that ladder would be the Howie Kendrick (35 bWAR)/Alex Bregman (37 bWAR) level. Maybe King is capable of more, but I’d be thrilled if you told me right now that any draft pick would be a 35-WAR player.
When’s the last time the Nats successfully developed a catcher internally? They haven’t used upper draft picks on them since Jakson Reetz and Derek Norris I guess. So we’ll see how this works out. Some are really excited about Lomavita, while Law is quite skeptical of his swing-and-miss rate. I wonder what Bazzell thinks about being picked by a team that just took another catcher ahead of him (the Kirk Cousins Effect).
I’m not going to get too excited about Dickerson until he actually does something. I would say the same thing if they’d taken Rainer in the first round. There’s no way to predict whether — or when — a high schooler will click. Certainly there’s good upside if Dickerson does, maybe even more of a potential ceiling than King has. If they are going to gamble on a high schooler, I much prefer doing it in the 3d round instead of the 1st. One thing I noticed about Dickerson is that he’ll turn 19 next month, so he’s older than the typical high schooler.
Todd noted the flexibility of so many of the draftees (plus Wallace, who could slot at 3B, 2B, or LF). That’s great and important, considering that it’s really hard to know at this point who is going to click, and when. Abrams seems to be solidifying his hold on SS-of-the-future. Garcia has been better but still isn’t a mortal lock at 2B. House is the presumed 3B of the future and has advanced at a good clip (particularly with playing around injuries), but he was only hitting .234 when promoted and still hasn’t developed the big power expected of him. And 1B and DH are wide open right now with the big club. Morales was drafted to be one of those guys, but he’s struggled so far plus missed a good bit of time with injury. The Nats don’t have much reserve in the middle infield behind Abrams and Garcia, and even if House does seize 3B, you always need backup for a guy with back problems.
It’s instructive to look at the Nats of 2011-12, when three-fourths of the INF looked set with Zim (3B), Desi (SS), and Espy (2B). When they drafted Rendon in 2011, it didn’t look like there was a spot for him. That all changed much quicker than anyone expected.
Guys on down the draft board who look interesting: Randal Diaz, Robert Cranz, Jackson Ross, Merritt Beeker, and Colby Shelton (if signed). It’s impossible to even guess which of the hard-throwing arms can be “fixed” enough to advance, but here’s hoping that a few of them can be.
KW
18 Jul 24 at 11:49 am
Lomavita is a Boras client, based on history I fear he will sign for well over slot even though he shouldn’t. The poor 9th and 10th rounders have reportedly already signed for only $2k. There really should be a minimum, I would say $30K or so.
James
18 Jul 24 at 4:33 pm
That probably explains the strange rumor that the Nats were seeking to cut a deal with Lomavita at #10.
I do really feel sorry for those guys who sign for essentially nothing. Even with a bump in the new CBA, the salaries for minor leaguers are still awful (minimum salaries):
Rookie league: $19,800
Low A: $26,200
High A: $27,300
AA: $27,300
AAA: $35,800
KW
18 Jul 24 at 7:09 pm
J. Gray–Tommy John surgery next week. This would be a much bigger blow without the developments of Irvin and Parker (for me, Gray had already moved behind Irvin on the “likely to make a start in the next Nats playoff series” list). Still, not good. Let’s hope he comes back healthy AND his MLB spot is used to develop someone else.
Sadly, my dream of never watching Patrick Corbin throw a baseball again is further delayed, probably to the end of the season…
Derek
19 Jul 24 at 4:04 pm
Seaver King signs for $800k under slot
Derek
19 Jul 24 at 4:36 pm
King signed for $5.15m, which is the equivalent of slot between 13th and 14th. Interesting, and not wrong what I’d predicted, somewhere between 12th and 24th (but a lot closer to 12th than 18th as I thought might be the case). It gives the Nats a lot less to work with, which makes Shelton look increasingly like Plan B in case they can’t agree to terms with Dickerson.
Will
19 Jul 24 at 5:48 pm
Also Bazzell signed for slot. I thought he’d command a bit more than slot, so there’s some unexpected “savings”.
Will
19 Jul 24 at 5:51 pm
King apparently has a smart agent. King said that the Nats called his agent about 30 minutes before they picked him, wanting to know his price. King’s guy put fair value on him based on where boards had him slotted. If he had quoted a price of a million higher, there’s a good chance he slides to the late teens and has to take $4M instead of $5.15M.
Interesting to see that Christian Moore (#8) signed for $5M in a $6.5M slot. Makes me think that he would have been very much on the Nats’ radar at that price if he hadn’t been picked. But King supposedly has more potential SS viability than Moore, so the Nats may have ended up with a more versatile player.
I doubt that Boras will let Lomavita go under-slot and may ask for a premium. I don’t know that there’s too much leverage for such things with where he was picked, though. I could see Dickerson getting as much as $3M.
Burns and Condon both got more than Bazzana. Makes me wonder what the Wetherholt price was if he was also in that mix. Hard to see the Cards giving him a huge over-slot at #7.
KW
19 Jul 24 at 11:20 pm
Catching up on comments.
– Grey UCL: he *may* not have full TJ, but he’s still probably out half of 2025. Yes the development of Irvin/Parker helps offset the sting, but #2 mlb starters don’t grow on trees. Cavalli could replace him sure, but this injury may increase the odds of this team buying a starter next off-season. They didn’t get a front-line 1st/2nd round starter in the draft, not that he would have helped in 2025, but this is a blow.
– King 5.15 slot signing: this is higher than I thought it would be, and based on my little XLS work at the draft tracker probably precludes the team from having any shot at signing the HS kid Jones.
– Lomavita: yes probably goes overslot, but not that much. Dickerson is not a $3M player; Sykora was more highly regarded and got $2.6. I think if Dickerson gets more than $2.5 i’d be pissed.
Todd Boss
20 Jul 24 at 10:05 am
I don’t think Dickerson is “worth” $3M either, just saying that he could be asking for that much. Whatever his number is, presumably the Nats knew it before they drafted him.
I agree that King’s number is a little higher than expected, but not so high that the Nats balked at it. As I said, his agent played it exactly right. And frankly, I’d pay that extra $150K just to get him signed and playing right away. That’s great to see. He should be playing this week. If he hits at all levels, I imagine they will push him all the way up to AA, like they did Crews, Morales, and Pinckney last summer.
As for the Gray news, it just reinforces the fact that the Nats have to sign a free agent pitcher or two. It might also increase the chances that Trevor Williams is one of them. That’s likely not what I would do, just saying it’s something the Nats may consider.
Even if Cavalli is completely healthy in 2025, he’s still going to be on an innings limit.
KW
20 Jul 24 at 12:35 pm
btw our 11th round gamble last year, Gavin Adams, was picked in the 8th round by the Pirates. He had transferred to Fla St but never pitched for them, getting TJ surgery last March. His slot value is $224k so likely getting a bump of $100k from last year, if he signs.
VladiHondo
20 Jul 24 at 4:56 pm
Listened to the Athletic’s “The Windup” podcast, where Keith Law talked about the draft. Interestingly to me, after he kind of ran through macro discussion and the top picks, the moderator asked him whose draft he liked the most. He said Cincinnati’s … and Ours. Talked up King as an underrated player, Lomavita as best C in the draft, really liked Dickerson, really liked Bazzanna, plus he said we continued to find solid players later on.
So that’s good.
Todd Boss
21 Jul 24 at 10:00 am
@Gavin Adams: yeah i saw that too. I updated the draft tracker to the same, and tried to “find” all our past draftees who didn’t sign.
Todd Boss
21 Jul 24 at 10:01 am
Cavalli news from mlbtraderumors/zukcerman
In other Nationals news, manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN) that longtime top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli has been dealing with a bout of “dead arm” while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery he underwent in early 2023. That issue was compounded further by Cavalli catching the flu, and that led the Nationals to restart the right-hander’s throwing program. The right-hander last appeared in a minor league rehab game on June 21 and has only just begun to ramp back up, though Martinez suggested that the club still expects him to pitch this year. Cavalli has just one big league start under his belt but looked good at the Triple-A level during his last full season back in 2022, when he posted a 3.71 ERA in 20 starts while striking out 25.9% of batters faced.
Todd Boss
21 Jul 24 at 10:02 am
Todd, in addition to Keith Law, ESPN’s Kiley McDanial talked up what the Nats did in the draft.
Mark L
21 Jul 24 at 11:02 am
In a post-draft chat, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs also mentioned that King was his favorite player in the draft. He loves King’s attitude, work ethic, and versatility.
KW
21 Jul 24 at 8:28 pm
Baseball America’s Draft Tracker shows that the Nats have signed *:
1. King $5.15 M ($800K below slot)
3. Bazell $980,300 (slot)
5. Randal Diaz-Morales $420,000 ($70K below slot)
6. Davian Garcia $425,000 ($50K above slot)
7. Robert Cranz $190,000 ($100K below slot)
9. Jackson Ross $2,000 (yes, 2K) ($195K below slot)
10. Luke Johnson $2,000 (yes, $2K) ($183K below slot)
11. Merritt Beeker $150K
Right now, the Nats are $1.2 million below slow, and as explained in the Nationals Arms Race website, they have additional room to go above slot. So, it appears they are in good shape to go way above slot, if needed to sign Dickerson and Lomavita. Also, the speculation is that the Nats will need to offer more than $150K to sign both 16th rounder Sir Jamison Jones and 20th rounder Colby Shelton. Would guess the Nats will sign all of its draft picks. We shall see.
Pilchard
23 Jul 24 at 11:15 am
Signed a ton of players yesterday! draft tracker up to date.
$1.2M may be enough to sign Shelton, but it probably won’t be enough to sign both Shelton and Jones. Shelton was probably projecting as a 4th rounder.
Todd Boss
23 Jul 24 at 11:52 am
So, my “what if” analysis in the Draft Tracker now shows me that we can probably do $750k to Jones and $1M to Shelton and stay under slot, if my other slot asusmptions are accurate.
i have us at $1.301,700 under slot exactly right now based on the 8 picks we’ve signed. I think we go overslot for Lomavita and Dickerson, which complicates things.
Todd Boss
23 Jul 24 at 12:03 pm
I’m pleased and slightly surprised to see that Meeker signed for the no-pool-cost of $150K. Of all the pitchers drafted on the third day, he was the one who seemed to have the best case to be paid a little extra.
Obviously Lomavita and Dickerson have to be signed before they can deal with Shelton and Jones, or they lose the slot money. I’m much more interested in Shelton — with two above-average seasons in the best conference in the land — than in a raw-but-athletic high schooler.
KW
23 Jul 24 at 3:12 pm
It’s also sad and cruel that there’s no minimum. A $2K “bonus”? I’m sure they agreed to it before they were picked, but they’re basically going to be spending their own money to chase the dream.
Yes, Jackson Ross is already 24 (a month older than Luis Garcia, to put it in perspective), but he had 55 walks in 56 games for Ole Miss. (The Rebel version of Youkilis, the Greek God of Walks.) Got on base at a .438 clip, 11 doubles, 10 homers, scored 52 runs. Go get ’em kid. Smash some low-minors pitching and show the hot-shot prospects how to take a walk.
KW
23 Jul 24 at 3:47 pm
There is a tweet from Nationals Communications advising that the Nats signed:
8th round pick Sam Petersen
12th round pick Alexander Meckley
13th round pick Bryant Olson
16th round pick Nolan “Nuke Laloosh” Hughes
17th round pick Gavin Bruni
18th round pick Teo Banks
19th round pick Ryan Minckler
The bonuses for these picks has not been reported. With these picks signed, the only remaining unsigned picks appear to be:
Compensation Round Pick – (#39) Caleb Lomavita (Boras client) -College JR
2nd round – Luke Dickerson – HS Grad
4th round – Jackson Kent – College JR
14th round – Yoel Tejada – College Soph
15th round – Sir Jamison Jones HS Grad
20th round – Colby Shelton- College Soph
All of these players have some leverage.
Pilchard
23 Jul 24 at 4:13 pm
I’ve never seen $2k before. That’s really kind of ridiculously low. NDFAs can sign for $20k at least. We had a bunch of guys in the 20s and 30s sign for $2500 back in 2017, Kyle Simons for $1,000 in 2015. But in the bonus pool/top10 era, the previous low was $10k for a top-10 round guy.
Todd Boss
23 Jul 24 at 4:13 pm
Realize that MLB teams are trying to save as much money on the bonuses for those with no leverage so that they have a larger pool to sign the picks with leverage, but $2K is ridiculous. Will be curious to see if any other MLB team pays a bonus that small to any signee. FWIW, both Jackson Ross and Luke Johnson went in the first 10 rounds. Just looks cheap.
Pilchard
23 Jul 24 at 5:08 pm
@Pilchard, Derek Clark and Ryan Nicholson, the Angels’ 9th and 10th rounders, both signed for $1k.
Many other teams appear to be giving their 4th/5th year seniors more than that. The Braves are giving between $2,500-12,500. The White Sox going rate seems to be $7,500. And a handful of others offering low 5 figures. In a bizarre twist, the Rockies drafted no less than 10(!!!!) 4th or 5th year college seniors in this year’s draft alone, and they didn’t pay any of them less than $50k, and even paid one of them $500k. I appreciate the seemingly moral stance of a $50k minimum offer, but holy cow, $500k for an unrated college senior, with another getting $250k, and two more getting $200k each, again none of whom were rated highly by the major sources. It reminds me that, while our management is not perfect, they’re not close to the incompetence of the Rockies.
Will
23 Jul 24 at 6:16 pm
I seem to remember someone, around the time of the new CBA, calculating that the salaries for an entire minor-league system — for every player — was around $1M a year TOTAL. As in, they fund the salaries for their full minor-league system for less than the cost of a bad utility infielder, in organizations that are worth $6 billion or more. The signing bonuses are the only real money these guys get.
Also remember that most of them were not on full scholarships in college, with only 11.5 scholarships per school. And if you want to add even more reality, there are the tens of thousands that their families spent following them around the travel team circuits. Plus these kids weren’t working during their college summers, they were playing in a wood-bat league somewhere.
Meanwhile, the drafting teams have saved tens of thousands on developmental costs on each player who has gone to college, and assumed no risk whatsoever on those players. (So why do they overpay high schoolers when they have a free, no-risk developmental system? I have no idea.)
So yeah, draftees and their families are really screwed by there being no minimum bonus. Plus they are pushed to turn pro after their junior years, with no guarantee that they’ll go back and finish their degrees. Most run out of steam in the minors by 27-28, they haven’t finished their degree, and they have no job experience.
(And yes, most of us commenting would have still chased that dream like they have if we had been good enough.)
KW
23 Jul 24 at 8:29 pm
MLB contracts usually include scholarship money for players, especially HS players, who wash out so they’re not suddenly 22 with no career and no alternatives. Heck, even Bryce Harper has 4 yeras of tuition covered.
https://www.mlb.com/player-resource-center/education
Todd Boss
24 Jul 24 at 9:02 am
As for these players signing for near nothing … i mean, they had to look in the mirror and basically be like, “well i’d play for nothing, and my draft prospects were near nothing, so lets go.”
Otherwise they wouldn’t have signed right? Nobody’s forcing them to sign. What it tells me is just how minimal their potential career looks like. We’ve signed a ton of 4th/5th year guys for $10k in the past few years and some of them are looking great. I don’t have the same hope for these two guys.
Todd Boss
24 Jul 24 at 9:04 am
I actually don’t think I agree with that, Todd.
Certainly the players who are able to demand 70% of slot or even 40^ of slot have that leverage because of their perceived potential, but I don’t think the negotiation that ends with a player signing for a nominal $10k bonus is really any different than the one that ends with the nominal $2k bonus.
Maybe the difference is the $10k player knows to ask to $10k instead of accepting $2k, or something around how much financial support they can get from their parents, and either of those might correlate with skill (though it’s not obvious to me how) — but I think it’s most likely that the only difference is in the team’s policy towards draft picks with zero leverage, and that we’re just as likely to find a Roark or a Glasser among these guys as we’ve been in previous years.
I also don’t think it’s as simple as “no one was forced to sign”, though that’s certainly true. Just in general, capital is self-organizing and labor is not, and that power imbalance would naturally put all the surplus value from the employment relationship into the hands of the employer, and that’s why we need laws to prevent 10 year olds from working in mines for $1 an hour etc.
And, in fact, this situation is in some ways even worse than an unregulated market because it’s actually been collectively bargained by parties that don’t represent the interests of the draftees and have intentionally and systematically removed value and agency from them, especially from the sub-group of draftees who are unlikely to ever make a 40-man roster.
You can say that these kids are living their dreams, and certainly there are lots of failed actors and writers and tech entrepreneurs and content creators (ugh, right? but it’s the times we’re living in) who won’t even get paid what minor leagers get, and all that’s true. But this is multi billion dollar industry, and the system is set up where these kids are giving up as many as 12 years of control over their professional lives. They should get a little something to smooth the transition, and it’s a sin that they don’t.
I’d like to see a minimum bonus of 20% of slot or something.
SMS
24 Jul 24 at 11:46 am
It’s being reported that:
– 4th round pick Jackson Kent signed for $50K under slot
-8th round pick Sam Petersen signed for slot
So, the Nats have 5 picks left unsigned (Lomavita, Dickerson, Yoel Tejada, Sir Jamison Jones and Colby Shelton) and $1.3 million+ in extra bonus funds to use in addition to slot value to bring them in.
Pilchard
24 Jul 24 at 1:54 pm
@SMS what do you not agree with? That a player who signs for $2k is being exploited?
I mean … yes the rules of this new CBA have created these loopholes of bonus money that lead to players getting less than they may deserve. I wouldn’t be opposed to a forced min % of a slot, or a min figure of $10k or $20k across the board.
that being siad … Let me put it to you this way: a player who gets drafted from 11-20 can sign for $150k without it impacting a team’s bonus pool, so by definition a senior sign who signs in the 8th-10th for 10k is not as good of a player than a guy who signs for $150k in the 11-20th. Furthermore, NDFAs can sign for $20k … so again, what i take away from a Ross or Johnson is that even if they didn’t get drafted, they weren’t worth $20k NDFA. I honestly think these guys were such marginal prospects that they realized they were either going to sign for $2k or never sign.
Todd Boss
24 Jul 24 at 4:55 pm
https://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-results/
BA is reporting a slew of 150k signings in the 11-20 range too. Updating draft tracker now.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY/edit?usp=sharing
Where we stand now? I have $1.352M of bonus dollars to go over-slot with. If you want to see my “what if” analysis of the remaining players to sign, go to the 2024 tab on draft tracker.
Todd Boss
24 Jul 24 at 5:01 pm
Tejada hasn’t signed, but he’s updated Twitter to say he’s a member of our team.
https://x.com/yoelon52
Todd Boss
24 Jul 24 at 5:05 pm
Also, Jones’ twitter says he’s going to sign the contract “tuesday.”
https://x.com/jamisonjones06?lang=en
Todd Boss
24 Jul 24 at 5:05 pm
Lomavita signed today https://x.com/nats_playerdev
Todd Boss
24 Jul 24 at 5:07 pm
@Todd – On the exploitation point, I must have misunderstood your comment. I agree they are being exploited. Sorry about that.
On the other point, though, I think we actually do disagree. The information available to each party is a lot fuzzier than you’re describing. Teams probably do have a model for each draft eligible player and what bonus they’d be worth, but there are going to be huge error bars in each version of it, and therefore huge disagreements among teams on the valuations. And in the first few rounds, those errors and disagreements just shape each team’s draft board, but when folks are looking for deep underslot deals, it’s just implausible that any model could accurately distinguish between players “worth” $2k and players “worth” $20k. Especially when teams misfire in the first round as often as they do.
And that’s going to be even more true from the player’s point of view. Their self-estimates can’t have anywhere near this kind of precision since they can’t know all the other moving pieces in the various bonus pools. Maybe they think, correctly or incorrectly, that taking pushing for $20k would brand them as “not a team player”. Maybe these $2k kids would have been offered $150k on day 3 had they refused the $2k. They just can’t know.
I think players that sign for non-slot $150k or $20k or $2k are all basically the same in terms of skill level and likely development. They’re picked to be competent low minors players that can help create the competitive environment needed to train the real prospects, and then once in a while, one of them develops into something more. Teams can scout and develop well or poorly and shift that “once in a while” from 1% to 5% or whatever, but the players who say no to $2k and yes to $20k (if there are any) are doing so for life reasons and not because they can accurately judge their value / market enough to be certain some other team will give them $15k.
SMS
24 Jul 24 at 6:01 pm
https://www.masnsports.com/blog/no-39-pick-lomavita-is-latest-to-sign-with-nats
Says Lomavita, the 39th overall pick in this month’s draft, received a signing bonus of $2.325 million
HMG
24 Jul 24 at 7:02 pm
Lomavata signs for under slot. amazing. We now have $1.422 “spare” bonus dollars to offer the remaining 4 guys.
Todd Boss
24 Jul 24 at 10:39 pm
Holy cow they just released Infante.
Todd Boss
25 Jul 24 at 9:13 am
Dickerson signed for $3.8m. That’s insane, and I really struggle to believe the Nats did their homework here (I will HAPPILY be proven wrong though). $3.8m is the slot bonus for the 22nd overall pick, it’s also a new record for the highest bonus for a 2nd rounder.
Dickerson was also the 16th HSer drafted, while Griffin hasn’t signed yet, he’s certain to get more than $3.8m, which will mean Dickerson will receive the 3rd highest signing bonus of all HSers drafted in 2024. Yes, more than #16th overall pick, PJ Morlando ($3.4m), #17 Braylon Payne ($3.44m), #23 Kellon Lindsey ($3.3m), #24 Cam Caminiti ($3.56m), and another 10+ guys drafted before him.
Going back to the main outlets top prospects lists, Sporting News had him higher than anyone else at #36, but that still placed him as the 10th best HS prospect. Meanwhile, ESPN had him sitting at 77th and FanGraphs didn’t even place him in their top 100 at all.
I really hope I end up eating crow here, and it also seems like this overslot spending will only prevent Shelton from signing, which was always a reach, so this isn’t the end of the world. But this majorly explains why the shoe never dropped in the Day 2 picks. We locked up an insane amount of draft capital in Dickerson, when comparable player held in seemingly higher regard were taken later and accepted $1m+ less. But how did we end up agreeing to a pre-draft figure of $3.8m for Dickerson? Who were we bidding against?
On the bright side, it means the Nats absolutely LOVE Dickerson, so I can’t wait to see what’s so special about him.
Will
25 Jul 24 at 1:06 pm
Dickerson signed for $3.8 million
Jones’signing bonus is reportedly $500,000
From
https://www.masnsports.com/blog/nats-sign-both-prep-draft-picks-with-dickerson-agreeing-to-record-bonus
HMG
25 Jul 24 at 1:06 pm
Also, will the Nats be brave enough to play Dickerson in Fredericksburg, now that the FCL season has ended, or will we lose half a season of development and have to wait until the FCL restarts next May?
Will
25 Jul 24 at 1:12 pm
I am struggling to find the problem here.
Yes, the Nats apparently valued Dickerson more than any other MLB team and more than any draft prognosticators (which really aren’t that meaningful because if they were as good or better than MLB front offices they wouldn’t be working for an internet site).
Either Dickerson pans out as an everyday MLB player (in which case $3.8 million is not a big investment) or he does not (in which case, we can go back to the 2024 draft and look at other players who the Nats should have drafted). Love that the Nats had a strong conviction on a player and they did not let the opinions of others sway them.
Will admit that drafting a HS player is always massively risky, and the Nats relied on projection, but if they believe Dickerson was the 3rd best HS player in the draft, good that they followed through with that belief.
Not that it matters that much, but UVA is also exceptionally good at evaluating prep talent, and they loved Dickerson too. Another good sign.
Pilchard
25 Jul 24 at 1:14 pm
Yeah, and some folks above thought I was crazy for suggesting that Dickerson might get “up to” $3M. But yes, $3.8M truly is “insane.” No other team valued him that highly. That turns him into another Infante, where they paid way more than any other team was going to.
And yes, I’m sure the Nats knew Dickerson’s price when they took him. It’s a price way out of scope for a guy who was rated no higher than a 3d rounder. I’ll bet there are a bunch of other high schoolers out there going, “damn, I would have taken that deal.”
But you what? If they sign everyone else, it’s not going to be worth griping about. But Shelton may be at least as good or better than Dickerson, and if they miss out of him because of this ridiculous spurge, it’s not going to make a lot of sense. They would have been better off taking a slot-value college player instead of Dickerson.
Let’s hope it pays off. Infante and Brenner Cox haven’t, but Sykora is looking like he might.
KW
25 Jul 24 at 1:21 pm
Is it fair to say Dickerson was rated no higher than a third rounder? Callis had him at 49 and Law had him at 59. CB 2nd round picks ran all the way up to 74 this year. Maybe that’s just semantics, but we’re not talking about a prospect that no one liked.
And I know Infante is top of mind because he was just released, but Infante was a huge overdraft. I don’t see the same thing with Dickerson.
Regardless, every prospect guru worth a damn considered Dickerson a better prospect than Shelton. In some cases it wasn’t even close. If it was one or the other (sure seems like Shelton was a back-up plan), I’m taking Dickerson 10 times out of 10.
Chris
25 Jul 24 at 3:05 pm
Looks like end of draft signings, Nats only have $142,355 (that’s with the +5% overage extra) to tack on to the $150k base to get Tejada or Shelton to sign. With both being sophomores, doesn’t seem likely a little less than $300k will tempt them.
VladiHondo
25 Jul 24 at 9:56 pm
I saw a video on MLB.com at the time of the first day which talked about “buzz of Dickerson going as high as 13th”… but that’s the highest I heard about – and he was rated I think in the 40’s/50’s by them.
Looks to all intents and purposes like a large overdraft. But to pay someone mid-first round money means they saw LOTS they liked. I think this is one where you definitely wait for the Scouting Director’s review to understand a bit more.
Kirkie
26 Jul 24 at 7:59 am
Dickerson signing bonus: y 2 cents? i’m also kind of shocked he was rated that high. I don’t think anyone had him as a 1st round talent, and he just got paid that way. Maybe he was a 2nd round talent (consistent with ranks and scouting pundit opinions) that needed 1st round money to buy him out of UVA … i mean, lets face it, UVA is a premier destination for prep HS kids.
I’m also shocked it “only” took 500k to get Jones. I mean. maybe he didnt’ have a full ride promised to Ok State but I thought it’d take 7 figures. Tejada seems like he’ll sign (based on the fact he’s already changed his Twitter job title), so that means 19 out of 20. Can’t complain there.
The draft tracker is up to date; i have us leaving $89k on the table assuming Tejada signs for 150k and Shelton doesn’t sign.
Todd Boss
26 Jul 24 at 8:51 am
On Jones, I’m not particularly surprised by his signing bonus. The Nats have signed a handful of HSers, Sophomore and JCers in recent years outside the top 10 to modest signing bonuses.
They signed Nick Peoples for $175k, Everett Cooper for $125k, Marquis Grissom was a sophomore and took $125k. Luke Young was out of JC and signed for $250k, same for Marc Davis’ and Riggs Threadgill’s $125k bonuses.
Given that Jones didn’t feature on ANYONE’s prospect ratings, suggests he was in a different tier than guys like Dickerson. So he did pretty well for himself getting $500k.
Will
26 Jul 24 at 9:15 am
Separate topic. I just did the Big Board work to add in all the 2024 draftees and NDFAs, since they’re all listed as officially signed now.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc/edit?usp=sharing
Recently, i’ve added counts of players to each roster, and there’s a macro count at the top that sums up all the players on all domestic leagues, since MLB instituted a 165 player cap. As you can see, with the 2024 draftees, we’re now at 163 players. Guys on the 60-day/full season DL don’t count against 165 (though there is a limit to how many you can put on that list and I think we’re over it). I mention this b/c we’re really close to a one-in, one-out situation with minor league players.
Todd Boss
26 Jul 24 at 12:07 pm
Likely means more cuts are coming at the trade deadline as I would expect the Nats will acquire more prospects than the number of MLB players that get dealt as most MLB player for minor league prospects are 2 or more for 1.
Pilchard
26 Jul 24 at 5:06 pm
Nat’s 20th round pick, Colby Shelton, announced today that he’s returning to Florida.
Pilchard
29 Jul 24 at 2:47 pm
Not surprising re Shelton. I like that they took a shot at him.
Someone above suggested that I was claiming that Shelton is better than Dickerson, which isn’t the case at all. But Shelton has hit 45 homers in two seasons in the best conference in the land. Sometimes that translates to rapid advancement (Lipscomb, Pinckney), sometimes it doesn’t (Frizzell, Banks).
We have NO idea what we have in Dickerson, a player from a cold-weather state who hasn’t played nearly as much as some others. But the depth in this draft was so thin that maybe it’s worth it taking a big swing on a lower pick. Just hope he can make some contact.
KW
29 Jul 24 at 3:53 pm
The Nationals transactions pages shows Yoel Tejeda Jr. signed.
https://www.mlb.com/nationals/roster/transactions
HGM
29 Jul 24 at 9:22 pm
Tejada: mlb draft tracker has him at 225k. So that’s our class.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY/edit?usp=sharing
Draft tracker is complete. We ended up leaving exactly $14,665 on the table. Well done.
Shelton: someone else mentioned it, but his drafting seemed entirely like Dickerson insurance. As in, if Dickerson fell through, they could throw that money at Shelton and get him to sign. The moment Dickerson signed they probably called Shelton and was like, “take $225k it or leave it” … that’s what Tejada ended up signing for, which was basically the rest of their draft.
More cuts coming? not necessarily; there’s a counting figure at the top of the Big Board that keeps track for us. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc/edit?usp=sharing . right now (before the Thomas trade but WITH all our 2024 draftees) we’re at 162 for the entire domestic minor leagues. Limit is 165. So I don’t see a need for a bunch of cuts going forward. I see no reason for any DSL player to come domestic now that FCL is done.
2 cents on Thomas trade: LOVE it. should have traded him last season when his value was higher. Cash in now b/c in 2 years he’ll be pushed out of a job by our prospects coming up.l
Todd Boss
30 Jul 24 at 1:41 pm