Here’s the End of August 2024 check-ins on all our rotations, from MLB to DSL.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Important links for this analysis:
- Big Board:
- Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com
- AAA Rochester stats: (all minor league stats at milb.com)
- AA Harrisburg stats
- High-A Wilmington stats
- Low-A Fredericksburg Stats
- FCL Nationals Stats (season ended 7/25/24)
- DSL Nationals Pitching Stats
We’ll start with the Majors.
Rotation as of 8/31/24: Irvin, Gore, Parker, Corbin, Herz
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Irvin, Gore, Parker, Corbin, Herz
Changes since end of last Month: None. Same five guys that have been there since the moment Williams went down.
Rotation Observations: Interestingly, the two best starters in August were … Corbin and Herz, who would have both been on the chopping block if we had any positive news from any of our injured starters. Herz had 6 starts with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.17 Whip in the month, both best of any of our 5 arms. Corbin wasn’t half bad either: 3.76 ERA while going 2-1 in his 6 starts. Parker and Gore improved on their July 7+ ERA months with decent ERAs, though Gore’s was quite lucky given his 1.7 whip. Only Irvin really struggled on the month, mostly thanks to one bad start on 8/30.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Honestly … now that we’re in September, nobody’s getting cut out of this rotation unless the team wants to start saving innings. Only two guys got 9/1 callups and neither were starters. There’s only two “starters” on the 40-man not hurt: Rutledge and Ward, and as we’ll read later, neither deserve a promotion at this point.
Bullpen comments: We’ve seen a decent performance from the bullpen lately. Salazar had 13 appearances with zero runs. Can’t beat that. Rainey has been handled with kid gloves all year (and was the subject of a Fangraphs article about pitcher usage and leverage) and was solid in August. Meanwhile, Adon did a great job proving that not only can he not get MLB hitters out as a starter, but that he can’t get them out as a reliever either. He’s now appeared in parts of four different seasons for this team and has never even come close to proving that he’s a MLB quality arm. He’s finally out of options but is nowhere close to enough service time to hit arbitration,
AAA Rochester
Rotation as of 8/31/24: Rutledge, Ward, Alvarez, Stuart, Watkins
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Rutledge, Ward, Lord, Alvarez, Luckham
Changes since end of last month: Lord got hurt and is on the DL, so they replaced him with Watkins, who’s been a LR/SS all year. Luckham struggled upon his promotion so he got sent back to AA, replace with new acquisition Stuart.
Rotation Observations: Lord was solid in 3 starts (1.46 ERA) then hit the DL. He got hit by a comebacker on his pitching hand and was put on the DL 8/20/24. We’re nearly at two weeks now. Alvarez has a nice month: 5 starts, 3.14 ERA and sub 1.00 whip. I wonder what he has to do to earn a call-up. Scouting reports aren’t very flattering: BA has him 45s across the board and describes him basically as a “left hander with 91 and a funky delivery.” Still, wouldn’t mind seeing him get a shot. Rutledge continues to be awful. Luckham had a 12 ERA in a couple of starts before being replaced by Stuart, who has a 7.88 ERA in his first two starts that was probably a little unlucky (he has a 1.00 whip and a .179 BAA in those two starts, so it’s almost like every single guy who got on base managed to score). We’ll see what he can do with the remaining couple of weeks. Ward had a 4.44 ERA with way too many walks. Lastly Watkins had a decent month, as one would expect for a 32-yr old in AAA.
Next guy to get Promoted: None deserve it, and Lord’s injury takes him out of the running.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: We were right on Luckham getting the boot back to AA last month.
Bullpen comments: Brzycky and Ribalta both had solid August numbers and both have been called up. Willingham, who is on the 40-man, also had decent Aug numbers and may get another shot. Tim Cate had a nice month, even if he’s had a crummy year.
AA Harrisburg
Rotation as of 8/31/24: Solesky, Lara, Luckham, Saenz, Shuman
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Cuevas, Solesky, Lara, Theophile, Stuart (with two spot starts from Reyes)
Changes since end of last month: Cuevas, after months of being the worst starter of the group, was taken out of the rotation and put in the bullpen. Luckham got promoted, then demoted right back. Stuart got promoted as he should have with a 27/5 K/BB ratio in 16 August innings and was replaced with Saenz, finally back off the injured list. Lastly Theophile got hurt and went straight to the 60 day/full season injured list, not a good sign.
Rotation Observations: Stuart was unhittable in his 3 Aug AA starts; he should stick in AAA for a while. Saenz got hit very badly; 10+ ERA and a 2.58 ERA in August. He struggled in 15 AA starts last year and may be running out of time to stick in the rotation. Luckham’s AA starts were solid; he definitely earned his promotion, but he’s been getting hit upon his return. Shuman is finally back in AA and only had one start, so not much to go on. Solesky was decent but just has no K/9 power. Lara’s ERA is inflated compared to his peripherals: 1.09 whip, .184 BAA; that should be a sub 3 ERA.
Next guy to get Promoted: No idea. Maybe Solesky despite his lack of swing and miss. He’s 26, has solid full-season numbers. It should be Theophile, but he seems like he’s out for a while.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Saenz; just not sure if he can cut it in AA.
Bullpen comments: Alston earned a promotion. I like Jack Sinclair’s august: 17/3 K/BB in 10 innings. Cronin is finally back in AA and had a 3.09 ERA in 10 appearances as the closer. He replaced Peterson as the closer at some point, who had an ERA in the 8s for the month.
High-A Wilmington
Rotation as of 8/31/24: Atencio, Cornelio, Susana, Caceres. Tepper
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Atencio, Cornelio, Shuman, Davis, Susana
Changes since end of last month: Shuman promoted, replaced by Caceres, who had been dropped from the rotation earlier. Also, Davis got dumped out of the rotation, replaced by the newly promoted Tepper.
Rotation Observations: Caceres, one month after getting dropped from the rotation. was the best starter in Wilmington. Cornelio put up his typical 6+ ERA month; more on him later. Susana got hit; he needs more AA time. Atencio put in another quietly good month (more on him in a moment). Tepper had a 4.50 ERA in two starts; not much to go on.
Next guy to get Promoted: Shuman finally got promoted despite getting whacked in his 3 High-A starts to start the month. I think its Atencio’s turn. He’s had a very solid High-A season all told (3.47 ERA in 18 starts) and had similar numbers in August. He’s only 22 and seems like a sneaky decent prospect for us.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Cornelio. Honestly, I don’t understand why the team sticks with this guy. I can’t remember the last time I saw a gamer with him as the starter where I said, “Oh that was a nice game for Cornelio.” No; instead its constantly 5ip, 7hits 3 walks, 5ER. (as I write this, i see that he had perhaps his best ever start as a pro on 9/1, which dropped his seasonal ERA by nearly a half a run all by itself). His career ERA is nearly 6.00 and instead of repeating low-A he got promoted up to high-A this year, where he’s continued to not be good. And it isn’t as if he has a 12 K/9 rate or anywhere near it.
Bullpen comments: The team finally promoted Cronin after my explicit comments last month. There isn’t much else good to write home about from this bullpen.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Rotation as of 8/31/24: Sthele, Polanco, Romero, Sykora, Clemmey
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Sthele, Polanco, Tepper, Romero, Sykora ( plus a slew of spot starts from random players and two Saenz rehab starts)
Changes since end of last month: Tepper got promoted, replaced by trade acquisition Clemmey. The team also just put Polanco on the restricted, list, so not sure what’s going on there. So as of this moment there’s only 4 starters on the roster; Polanco’s last turn was taken by lefty reliever Angel Roman.
Rotation Observations: Here’s Sykora’s August numbers: 6 starts, 30 1/3 innings. 0.88 ERA (3 earned runs in 30 innings). In those 30 innings he gave up 12 hits and 4 walks for a WHIP of 0.52. He had 48 strikeouts to go against 4 walks in those 30 innings. Uh, why is he still in Low-A? Nobody else worth talking about right now: Romero has just 10 Ks in 25 innings last month, Sthele had a .297 BAA, Polanco a 1.83 whip. Clemmey is a solid prospect and had solid peripherals even if his ERA was mediocre (.188 BAA, 21/12 K/BB in 19IP).
Next guy to get Promoted: Sykora. should have been promoted last month.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Probably Sthele, who we’ve mentioned in this spot in the past. 22yrs old in low-A just not getting guys out. 12th rounder in 2023 so not a ton invested.
Bullpen comments: Speaking of Roman; he’s been unhittable since getting bumped up from FCL. The team called up a couple of 2024 draftees in Alexander Meckly and Merrill Beeker, but neither are being used as starters right now.
Rookie/FCL Nationals: finished on 7/25/24, so no August games.
Rookie/DSL Nationals
Rotation as of 8/31/24: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Feliz, Reyes, Lunar
Rotation as of 7/31/24: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Feliz, Thomas, with Juan Reyes as an “opener.”
Changes Since last Month: Vera was mercifully pulled from the rotation after walking 2 guys an inning, replaced by Lunar. Thomas was pulled from the rotation as well, replaced with Reyes’ opener performances.
Rotation Observations: De La Cruz had 3 Aug starts and saw his already bad ERA increase. Feliz only made one start on 8/5 and hasn’t appeared since; that’s not good considering that he was easily the best arm in the DSL this year. Reyes got three short “opener” starts of 2-3 innings and was decent. Reynoso got two starts and got shelled. Lunar had a 4-inning no hit performance and a 5-inning start with just one hit allowed.
Next guy to get Promoted: Feliz, maybe Lunar
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Vera.
Bullpen comments: Probably the best bullpen arm is Jose Sanchez, not much else to report.
That’s it for August 2024. We’ll probably wait until the end of the minor league season in the early parts of September to do an end of season review.
Good stuff as always Todd!
Mick Reinhard
3 Sep 24 at 5:56 pm
Law’s take on Susana (Athletic subscription):
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5739028/2024/09/03/mlb-prospect-scouting-jarlin-susana-vance-honeycutt/
Todd noted that Susana “got hit.” I see the box scores and think the same. But Law’s breakdown is instructive of why it’s so hard to judge from the stats: of the seven hits in the game Law watched, three never left the infield, and only one was hit hard. “The Wilmington defense did Susana no favors.”
Law is impressed with the velo but thinks they need to tweak his delivery for better command. He also probably needs another pitch, particularly against LH hitters.
KW
4 Sep 24 at 8:16 am
thanks Mick. Btw i always love that you have little nuggets as a Harrisburg insider that we don’t get. Love your input .
Todd Boss
4 Sep 24 at 8:34 am
KW: i forgot to link to that article, but did see it (since i’m an Athletic subscriber). Law’s takes are always the sane ones. But his report is why you almost need to see these players to properly write about them. Obviously that’s not possible for a home-based blogger, or even for a lot of modern sports writers who can’t stay on the road 1005.
I try to suss out lucky versus unlucky when looking at several combined stats. For example, if a pitcher has an ERA in the 5.00 range that’s bad … but if that same pitcher has a whip of 1.10 and a batting average against of like .200 … then in the absence of a FIP or xFIP for minor leaguers (which is available at fangraphs, but i always forget), you have to kind of read between the lines.
Speaking of fip for our minor leaguers: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32&stats=pit&qual=50&type=1&team=&season=2024&seasonEnd=2024&org=24&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=19,-1
I put the filter at 50ip: our top 10 FIP leaders have some expected names and some surprises:
1. Sykora at 1.79
2. Susana at 2.43 … and his BABIP is .375! Yeah, this is a guy whose ERA should be far lower.
3. Bollenbacher at 2.68. interesting.
4. Moises Diaz, who’s getting by without a ton of Ks
5. Daison Acosta, AA reliever
6. Bubba Hall
7. Jack Sinclair
8. Marquis Grissom
9. Carlos Romero
10. Brad Lord;
who are our three worst FIPs? Gee; its the three AAA starters on our 40-man: Ward, Rutledge, and Adon.
Todd Boss
4 Sep 24 at 8:42 am
All in all, it’s been quite a positive summer for pitching in the organization, much more so in general than for the field position players. I remember doing the top 10 arms list last fall for Luke’s site and struggling to come up with 10 who were healthy who I believed in. Sykora hadn’t pitched, Lara and Susana had struggled, and Parker and Herz seemed like very marginal MLB possibilities. Cavalli, Bennett, and Henry were hurt (and still are). Rutledge and Adon had sucked (and still do).
Now, they seem to have MLB starter potential in Sykora, Lara, Susana, Stuart, Clemmey, Cavalli, Bennett, and maybe Lord. I’m probably missing one or two, but that’s a substantial list, certainly stronger than I can remember in recent times.
KW
4 Sep 24 at 8:46 am
Todd — yes indeed. Plus minor-league fields sometimes aren’t the greatest, and minor-league defense certainly isn’t. (Our defensive whiz bonus baby Armando Cruz committed errors #22 and 23 last night. Jeez.) So BABIP against, BA against, and FIP sometimes do tell an important story.
If a guy has a low H9 number, though, it’s still impressive. That number caught my eye with Parker and Herz in the minors. It always seemed like if they could cut down their walks, they would be golden, as guys couldn’t actually hit them.
KW
4 Sep 24 at 8:56 am
From Jim Bowden’s new top 50 prospect list, which excludes anyone who has been promoted:
23. Brady House, 3B, Nationals (Triple A)
Age: 21
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6-4 Weight: 208
Scouting grades: HIT: 55 PWR: 60 RUN: 50 ARM: 60 FLD: 50
Last year, Brady House slashed .312/.365/.497 with 12 home runs and 47 RBIs between A-ball and Double A. This year, his slash line has dipped to .246/.307/.423 between Double A and Triple A, but he has 18 home runs and 62 RBIs. When you watch House take batting practice, it’s evident he has 25-30 home run power — or maybe even more. He’s only 21 and his power is still raw, but if it comes together he should be the total package: hitting for average and power while playing an adequate third base. With James Wood and Dylan Crews now promoted to the big leagues, House is the Nationals’ best position-player prospect waiting in the wings. It’s only a matter of time.
KW
5 Sep 24 at 7:16 pm
We’ve given a lot of attention to Wood and Crews, rightfully so, but House was a legit 1-1 draft contender for most of his prep career, worked through injuries, is now holding his own in AAA as a 21-yr old (if he’d have gone to school, he’d be sitting in Low-A right now getting a week of ABs). I have high hopes. We’ve dreamed on a prospect laden lineup that would include Woods, Crews, and House for a while. We’re nearly there.
Todd Boss
6 Sep 24 at 10:36 am
Todd: would you weigh in on possible starter-to-reliever conversion candidates? Sure did work for Adon, lol, but at this point are there some guys who perhaps have stalled out as starters with either too few pitches or maybe could be dominant with a bit of a velocity pick up that comes with relieving? In particular, is it time for Rutledge to try his hand at relief?
JCA
7 Sep 24 at 12:18 pm
a partial answer / add on to conversion candidates: he’s younger, but Jose Atencio seems to have superb control and, from reading Longenhagen’s mention of him in his 2022 system write-up, low 90s velocity and a slider and a change that can miss bats. Would a velo kick turn him into something in the bullpen?
JCA
7 Sep 24 at 12:49 pm
I keep seeing the hype around House, but I’d feel better about the whole thing if he would actually produce on the field. I mean, #23 in MLB for a guy who is posting an 80 wRC+ in AAA with an amazing (and not in a good way) 2.8% BB rate?
Oh, it’s Bowden [SPIT]. Nevermind.
John C.
8 Sep 24 at 12:00 am
JCA: Starter to Reliever candidates by level: probably worthy of a full blown post. before really thinking about it though:
– AAA: Adon, Rutledge, and Ward
– AA: Cuevas has already been dropped from rotation; only real candidate i see right now.
– High-A: Cornelio and Caceres are the ones standing out; both 24, both unable to succeed as starters. Cornelio has nearly 9 k/9 so could be a good candidate for a su/closer. Atencio seems to be succeeding as a starter right now; why change?
– Low-A: Stethe and Romero make no sense as starters.
Low-A will also be where a couple of 2024 draftees land next year who should be starters (4th round pick Kent, 6th round pick Garcia), plus there’s five 60-day DL starters there (Aldonis, Tolman, Sullivan, Agostini, Marquez) so you really have to shine to be a low-A starter right now.
Todd Boss
8 Sep 24 at 10:45 am
Bowden rankings = yeah, ignore.
Here’s where other shops have House right now:
– BA: 82
– Prospectw1500: 56
– ESPN: 52
– MLP pipeline: 69
– prospectes361; 48
– Fangraphs: 69
– Athletic/Keith Law: Below #60
I probably put the most emphasis on BA. they’ve dinged him as he’s struggled, but kept him in their top 100.
Todd Boss
8 Sep 24 at 10:47 am
To be clear, I agree on Bowden’s talent evaluation capabilities, the guy who gave us Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge as the OF of the future. ‘Nuf said. There are reasons why he hasn’t worked in baseball for a decade and a half. I just thought it was interesting to see such a positive take on House.
I’m also in line with Todd’s first take: at the time of the 2021 draft, I thought House had the highest ceiling of any hitter in the draft class. I was thrilled when he dropped to the Nats, but I also wondered what the nine teams that passed on him thought they knew that we didn’t.
I’m currently a House agnostic. When I mentioned a few weeks ago that I no longer see him as off the table for discussion in trades, some folks took exception. There’s still a lot of promise, he just turned 21 in June, and he’s far from the flop that several other recent Nat first rounders are. But he hasn’t had a great season. At the end of 2023, in 36 games at AA, he hit .324. In 2024, he hit .234 — a full hundred points lower — at the same level, but got a social promotion to AAA. He’s never learned to take a walk, and he’s striking out at a too-high 29% clip at AAA. His OBP over two levels is .303, well down from his multi-level .365 last season.
The significant positive is that his power is coming — 19 homers and 18 doubles thus far in 2024, in 117 games.
The changes in the equation are that the Nats now have added two legit challengers at 3B in Jose Tena and Cayden Wallace, and perhaps others in draftees Seaver King, Luke Dickerson, and Kevin Bazzell (drafted as a catcher). None of them can touch House’s 70-grade power potential, but he’s got to get better at plate discipline for that to matter.
KW
8 Sep 24 at 1:38 pm
We often forget what a train wreck Bowden’s tenure here was. An obsession with high School talent in the 1st and 2nd round of his drafts (practically every top draft pick in his 2006-2008 drafts was a prep kid), the Aaron Crow draft debacle, crap trades, trades where the opposing teams filed grievances for sending damaged players, and then the Latin America situation.
Todd Boss
9 Sep 24 at 2:30 pm
I think House works out. Repeat after me: He’s 21. We do have a lot of inf depth coming up …. can’t all make the majors, some will get flipped.
Todd Boss
9 Sep 24 at 2:32 pm
@KW – I think I may have been one of the folks pushing back on the idea that House was now positioned to be traded, but I don’t think it’s because he’s a slam dunk star or anything. It’s because he’s still, by far, the best 3B prospect in the system and his likely timeline largely fits our window. There just isn’t any incentive for prospects like that to be traded.
Certainly sometimes teams differ on valuations, and trades do happen for those reasons, especially if there’s a specific developmental idea that the acquiring team wants to try, but most trades are about shifting the shape of value to better fit a window of contention or to have an easier claim at playing time or even to seek or avoid variance.
Unless or until we acquire a star 3B in free agency or a trade, the only way Rizzo trades House is if he’s offered more value than he’s worth. And why would another team offer that? Their GMs can see House’s walk rate just as well as we can.
(And to echo Todd – I’m definitely not down on House. His 2023 AA stats were skewed by a crazily lucky BABIP and his 2024 AA results were killed by an opposite run of luck, and that’s masking the real incremental improvements he made YoY – k% 4 percentage points better, bb% 3 pp better and an iso 40 points higher. It’s just that prospects that good fail all the time, and House might. Tena and King are decent plan Bs, but I don’t see how anyone could scout them in the same class as House. Tena’s defense is a huge leak and may make hum borderline unplayable at 3B. King is a month older than House and doing much worse in low-A than House did in high-A last year. Wallace is 1.5 years older and has never hit like House has. It’s good to have options, but the pecking order should be clear to everyone.)
SMS
10 Sep 24 at 7:05 am
Don’t misinterpret what I’m saying — they’re not going to be rushing out to trade House, and they likely won’t. I’m just saying that while Wood and Crews are probably untouchable, House no longer is. If there are discussions of a trade for a star-level player, he’s one the Nats would consider parting with.
I also still think House will make it, and I still have dreams of a corner infielder with 35 HR power. But all you have to do is look at Gallo’s career arc to see the problems if that power is attached to a whiff machine. House has to improve his plate discipline.
You also HAVE to be brutally honest with your internal evaluations. One of the reasons that the Nats crashed so spectacularly over the last few years is that they were so wrong about Robles, Kieboom, Fedde, Seth Romero, Rutledge, et al. All (except perhaps Romero) had considerable trade value at certain points.
One point that I’ll make in House’s defense is that he also has been health-limited. He only played 45 games in his first pro season because of injuries, and they load-managed him last summer with 88 games.
KW
10 Sep 24 at 9:12 am
But you’re assuming greater fool trades. If our brutally honest internal evaluation of House is lower than his trade value, then of course you trade him. And I’d argue, by that standard, no one is actually untradable, except maybe an established ML face of the franchise for marketing reasons.
To me the important question is whether Rizzo would include the player in a fair-ish trade, where you just have to give value to get value. And I think for House, right now, the answer is no.
SMS
10 Sep 24 at 9:55 am
@SMS: On whether Rizzo would include House in a fair-ish trade, where you give value to get value, for Rizzo I’d be shocked if the answer was anything but yes. IF the return fair value addressed a more pressing team need.
As for “no one is actually untradeable,” remember that Rizzo has already traded Juan Soto. Wayne Gretsky and Hershel Walker were traded. It’s true that anyone can be traded if the return is commensurate with the loss.
John C.
10 Sep 24 at 3:44 pm