It has been a pleasure to follow the 2024 rotations of this team, something that hasn’t always been true. 2024 saw a slew of arms make major leaps forward, both in terms of promotion and in terms of stature.
Here’s a final recap of the rotations for the 2024 season, showing the evolution of the rotation at each level, and then we’ll make some predictions on 2025.
Here’s the recaps for the year:
There was no September summary since the various leagues staggered the amount of time they played in Sept, leading to this post where we’ll do an overall summary of the season.
Critical to this analysis are the following links:
- Big Board
- Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com
- AAA Rochester stats: (all minor league stats at milb.com)
- AA Harrisburg stats
- High-A Wilmington stats
- Low-A Fredericksburg Stats
- FCL Nationals Stats (season ended 7/25/24)
- DSL Nationals Pitching Stats
Lets start at the top. I’m drawing from all my posts throughout the year to show the evolution of each staff’s rotation. Then for 2024, I’m generally predicting 6-7 names per rotation to account for the inevitable injuries.
MLB Washington
- Opening Day: Grey, Irvin, Gore, Williams, Corbin
- End of April: Irvin, Gore, Williams, Corbin, Parker,
- End of May: Irvin, Gore, Williams, Corbin, Parker,
- End of June: Irvin, Gore, Corbin, Parker, Herz
- End of July: Irvin, Gore, Corbin, Parker, Herz
- End of August: Irvin, Gore, Corbin, Parker, Herz
- End of Season: Irvin, Gore, Corbin, Parker, Herz, Williams
2024 Discussion
Despite losing 90 games, the team’s rotation was shockingly intact for most of the season. Amazingly, Patrick Corbin hung onto his rotation (and roster) spot the entire season, despite being perpetually listed as “the next starter to get DFA’d once a spot was needed). He earned his $35M walk year salary with 170+ innings of 5.58 ERA, which was the WORST ERA in the league, by half a run, of all 57 qualified pitchers this year. In an interesting statistical side note: his bWAR is -0.8 (as you’d expect) but his fWAR is 1.7! That’s right; he has a positive 1.7 fWAR for the year. This happens by the way, because Fangraph’s pitcher WAR heavily uses FIP in its calculation, which heavily weighs strikeouts and ignores any ball put into play (which means we’re ignoring about 70% of a pitcher’s at-bats). But I digress. Let’s simplify this: Corbin was in the rotation b/c he’s getting paid a ton of money this year, he took the ball every 5 days, he got shelled all year, and I’ll be shocked if he gets a guaranteed contract next year. His departure frees up a ton of payroll and a 2025 rotation spot.
Thanks to an early injury to opening day starter Josiah Grey (which turned into TJ surgery, likely costing him the entirety of the 2025 season) the team was able to debut found gold in Mitchell Parker, a 5th round 2020 draft pick who got just $100k in bonus money (reminder: picks in rounds 11-20 can sign for half again as much without penalty). Parker will finish the year with 30 starts, a 94 ERA+, and a FIP that flatters his ERA. Trevor Williams was putting together a Cy Young worthy season until he suffered a dreaded flexor strain; thankfully for Williams it didn’t turn into TJ surgery as it did for Grey, but it did cost him the chance to get traded to a contender, and it cost us a chance to net a couple of solid prospects in return for one of the league’s best starters. It’s a shame all the way around. Williams was brought back up for the last week of the season mostly as a courtesy to the veteran, who will head into the off-season at least being able to claim he finished the year healthy. Irvin and Gore gave season-long “almost league average” stats, though each had stretches of real brilliance. Irvin featured far fewer baserunners (1.18 whip) but not as much swing-and-miss, while Gore put a ton more guys on but showed he has no-hit capabilities. Lastly, Williams’ injury gave the team another opportunity to give a months-long tryout a AAA pitcher (in this case DJ Herz, trade bounty for half a 2023 season of Candelario and another guy who can only be described as “found gold”). Herz struggled initially but improved every month he was up and has finished the season with almost an identical ERA+ as Irvin and Parker had (94-95).
2025 Outlook:
Tangent: this is as good as any of a spot to have this discussion. I believe that Mike Rizzo will be taking a look at this team’s 2024 performance and will conclude they’re still a year away. I could be wrong; he signed Jayson Werth after the team went 69-93 in 2010, but I believe that was more of a, “Hey guys, this team has cash and isn’t afraid to spend it” kind of move. He doesn’t have to make that kind of move again; the league knows this team spent $200M at one point in its last run, and probably gets up there again if/when it thinks it can compete again. I think the lost year of Cavalli in 2024, the 2025 lost year of Grey, the slow-down of development of House and Hassell, and the relative youth of our next real wave of top prospects will have Rizzo conclude that 2025 will be another incremental growth year, and that decision will drive what we write about in the next section.
Williams probably did enough to not only guarantee himself a contract in 2025, but probably will command more than his Nats contract (2yrs $13M). Given the above paragraph, Should the team resign him? I certainly hope they do not. I think they have better, cheaper alternatives from inside, and they don’t want/ need to commit to a multi-year contract with a guy who might be 2023-version or 2024-version. Corbin is clearly gone.
That leaves the four youngsters to lead the line in 2025: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Herz.
Who joins them? The hopeful answer for all Nats fans is a healthy Cavalli. That would be the easiest, neatest solution. However, I’m now in the “seriously, officially worried” phase w/r/t Cavalli. He’s turned a 12-month injury into a 24 month one. Something tells me that I shouldn’t count on Cavalli for opening day, which means the team needs a 5th starter. I think the team goes bargain shopping for an extra starter, a veteran guy looking for a bounce back. But I wouldn’t want to roll the dice on a MLFA/NRI guy if it comes to it; I’d rather spend a bit of cash and bring in someone who could really contribute. Maybe a one-year guy who we could look to flip. I mean heck, if they want to take the PR hit, Trevor Bauer would certainly take a one year deal to get back into the league. A veteran starter could give them a little room on Cavalli, and it could give them an option to send Herz back down if he struggles to open 2025.
2025 rotation prediction: Gore, Irvin, Parker, Herz, Veteran FA signing (Grey on DL, Cavalli in AAA)
AAA Rochester
- Opening Day: Adon, Rutledge, Parker, Ward, Herz
- End of April: Adon, Rutledge, Ward, Herz, Watkins,
- End of May: Adon, Rutledge, Ward, Herz, Watkins,
- End of June: Rutledge, Ward, Watkins, Alvarez, Lord
- End of July: Rutledge, Ward, Alvarez, Lord, Luckham
- End of August: Rutledge, Ward, Watkins, Alvarez, Stuart
- End of Season: Rutledge, Ward, Watkins, Alvarez, Lord
2024 Discussion: Like the MLB rotation, the AAA rotation showed a lot of consistency for the year. Three guys (Rutledge, Watkins, and Ward) were basically in the rotation the entire season. Rutledge and Ward are on our 40-man and were, lets just be honest, awful: Rutledge had a 6.40 ERA for the season, Ward not much better at 5.64. Both essentially served as MLB insurance the entire year and were passed over by Parker and Herz, both of whom went up and stayed up. Neither guy had anything close to a stretch of productivity that was impressive.
The team gave Joan Adon yet another run-out to prove he’s not a capable starter before removing him mid-season to make way for those moving up from AA that had merited the promotions (Alvarez and Lord). Lord continued his amazing run through the organization in AAA, and had the best numbers of any of the year-end starters (AAA numbers of 3.93 ERA, 1.38 whip, and a K/inning). Not bad for an 18th round draft pick. Last year’s Nats Minor league Pitcher of the year Alvarez had 16 starts in AAA this year with mediocre results: 4.58 ERA, 1.45 whip, 61 Ks in 78IP. He has practically zero prospect buzz and the scouting report on him seems to be “lefty guy with weird mechanics who gets by on deception, not stuff.” I think he eventually gets converted to be a lefty reliever and that’s his eventual ticket to the majors, but for the time being he’s bought himself another year in the AAA rotation. Stuart only got a handful of AAA starts before getting hurt, but was basically unhittable for us in AA. We couldn’t say the same for Luckham, who earned a promotion and then got similarly shelled and got sent back down.
2025 Outlook: Two guys are already gone. Watkins was a 32-yr old veteran MLFA who presumably is pitching elsewhere next year. Ward got waived ahead of the Rule-5 deadline, as the team tried to sneak him off the roster, but he got claimed by Baltimore (who’s done that several times to us as we dumped pitchers). Adon is out of options and probably is gone at the end of spring training.
Rutledge still has one major advantage in this organization: he was a 1st round pick with a big bonus, which means he’ll continue to get opportunities to prove his worth; even though he’s clearly (to me anyway) a FB/slider 6’6″ behemoth who screams “8th inning guy” in a major league bullpen, he’ll get run out as a starter again in 2025. Alvarez is rule-5 eligible but was not protected; for now AAA rotation makes sense. I think the team will let a numbers game play out and will keep Stuart in AAA to start the year. Lastly, as they generally like to do, expect a cattle call of veteran MLFA/NRI types to get signed for the AAA 5th starter try-out, basically the Spencer Watkins of 2025.
I suppose it is also entirely possible the team has Cavalli start here and signs a guy to pitch in the majors, but that would depend on an organizational decision that Cavalli’s stunted rehab in 2024 will continue. Obviously I don’t have that kind of information. I also find it somewhat notable that Cavalli is not going to the AFL this fall in order to get some extra innings. Is he still hurt?
2025 rotation prediction: Rutledge, Lord, Alvarez, Stuart, Cavalli/MLFA signing
AA Harrisburg
- Opening Day: Luckham, Alvarez, Henry, Knowles, Cuevas
- End of April: Luckham, Alvarez, Henry, Lord, Cuevas,
- End of May: Luckham, Alvarez, Henry, Lord, Cuevas,
- End of June: Luckham, Cuevas, Solesky, Lara, Theophile
- End of July: Cuevas, Solesky, Lara, Theophile, Stuart
- End of August: Luckham, Solesky, Lara, Saenz, Shuman
- End of Season: Luckham, Solesky, Lara, Saenz, Shuman
2024 Discussion:
Luckham started the year on the AA hump, and ended the year on the AA hump as well with a brief unsuccessful stint in AAA. He’s still not ready and needs another AA year for sure (4.47 ERA). Alvarez had a 2.89 ERA in 10 starts and more than earned his AAA promotion; he won’t be coming back. 40-man and former top prospect Cole Henry has to be the biggest disappointment to Nats fans; 5 starts, just 13Ip, then back on the DL. He did a rehab stint in Wilmington before getting stuck right back on the 60-day DL. There was never any official note of the nature of the injury. Knowles was looking great, then suddenly poof on the DL. After a month, moved to 60-day, then a month after that the “full season” DL. I’m going to assume it was a major injury and he starts on DL in 2025. Cuevas hung in the rotation probably for a month too long with near 6.00 ERA before getting dropped to be “LR” guy, replaced by the rising Lord. once Lord proved AA couldn’t hold him, the team brought up prospect Lara, who shined for 19 starts and just got added to the 40-man. Solesky got signed in June after the CWS dumped him at the end of spring training and he looked great all year; enough so to go to the AFL to shop his talents. Theophile got called up and was stellar … then poof hit the DL and was gone. And now he’s a 6year MLFA. Saenz and Shuman both returned from injury to a mixed bag of success; Saenz may finally be out of the starter business, while Shuman needs a full season healthy.
2025 Outlook: Henry seems like a massive injury concern. He’s also a 40-man roster spot holder; would the team try to DFA him and outright him to get a spot? I would. I’ll assume he is on the DL to start the season. Same with Knowles. I think Lara starts in AA with the Nats typical “prove you can repeat the level then we’ll promote you.” I could see Solesky also going to AAA, but maybe that only happens if the team decides Rutledge is now a reliever. After that, expect retreads Luckham and Shuman to man the spots. Lastly, I’d put 23yr old Cuevas back in the rotation to fill it out until the next high-A guy merits a promotion.
2025 rotation prediction: Lara, Sokesky, Luckham, Shuman, Cuevas. Henry (i), Knowles (i)
High A Wilmington
- Opening Day: Lara, Lord, Young, Cornelio, Theophile
- End of April: Lara, Young, Cornelio, Theophile, Caceres,
- End of May: Young, Cornelio, Theophile, Caceres, Atencio,
- End of June: Young, Cornelio, Caceres, Atencio, Shuman
- End of July: Cornelio, Atencio, Shuman, Susana, Davis,
- End of August: Cornelio, Caceres, Atencio, Susana, Tepper
- End of Season: Cornelio, Caceres, Atencio, Susana, Tepper,
2024 Discussion: Lara and Lord’s performances speak for themselves this year: Lord earned a 2-level promotion and Lara earned a 40-man spot. The rest of the opening day rotation was a grab bag of results. Young hung for half the season before getting replaced in the rotation. Caceres replaced Lord’s early promotion and had 23 starts with a 4.83 ERA. Cornelio had the most starts of anyone, 26 starts with a 5.53ERA. This is his second year with a 5+ era, and unlike in 2024, I don’t think he’s earning a social promotion for 2025. Theophile was the “least worst” candidate to get promoted when the AA team needed a starter, but he earned his keep in AA before getting hurt.
Atencio was sneaky good all year; he’s only 22 but he’s rule-5 eligible this year. I think he may be in line for a fast promotion ala Lara/Lord this year. Uber prospect Susana arrived in July and was decent in 10 starts. Despite his rocket-ship trajectory as a prospect, i don’t think he’s starting in AA based on his 10 starts of 4.18 ERA in high-A. Look for him to get a month in Wilmington before moving up. The rest of the guys who got somewhat regular starts at season’s end (Tepper, Davis) didn’t impress and probably get moved to the bullpen.
2025 Outlook: The rotation in Wilmington will be packed to start 2025, with a 1-2 punch of Susana and Sykora and solid prospects all the way through. Atencio will start in High-A as well. I’m assuming that Jake Bennett will be ready to go, and he should slot in as a starter in High-A looking to prove himself and move up fast. That’s a great rotation. I would think that Susana is good for a month, Sykora half a season, Bennett perhaps a couple months to show he’s healthy, and Atencio a half a season if they all pitch to their 2024 capabilities, meaning for lots of promotion opportunities coming up from Low-A. Lastly, I’ve got Clemmey starting here aggressively, if only because there’s just too many arms for Low-A.
2025 rotation prediction: Susana, Sykora, Atencio, Bennett, Clemmey (with Young, Caceres, Cornelio, Tepper, or Davis getting moved to the bullpen)
Low-A Fredericksburg
- Opening Day: Sthele, Sanchez, Susana, Davis, Sullivan
- End of April: Sthele, Sanchez, Susana, Davis, Atencio
- End of May: Sthele, Sanchez, Susana, Davis, Polanco, Sykora
- End of June: Sthele, Susana, Davis, Polanco, Sykora,
- End of July: Sthele, Polanco, Sykora, Tepper, Romero
- End of August: Sthele, Polanco, Sykora, Romero, Clemmey
- End of Season: Sthele, Polanco, Sykora, Romero, Clemmey
2024 Discussion: The Low-A rotation was headlined all year by Sykora, who blew through the league and stayed in the league probably 2 months more than he should have. It became clear he stayed to lead the team’s playoff run, and was a big part in the first championship for a Nats affiliate in some time. He’s obviously heading to High-A. Sullivan looked good and then hit the full-season DL: we’re assuming he’s starting there next year. Davis was solid and got promoted. Sthele managed to stay in the rotation all year despite a season-long 4.81 ERA. Bryan Sanchez pitched to a 6.66 ERA and got dumped out of the bullpen mid-season. 19yr old Clemmey is a top prospect and pitched an entire season in low-A despite his age; he probably needs a little more Low-A seasoning before looking to move up, but I could also make the argument to move him up based on the numbers of who needs to be in the Low-A rotation.
2025 Outlook: I sense the team is counting on its DL guys returning, based on the guys left at the end of the season and their general 2024 performance. The team had three experienced starters spend the entire season on the DL: Agostini, Tolman, and Aldonis. I’ll bet they put at least a couple in the 2025 rotation to get them back on track (Agostini went on in April and may still be hurt to start 2025). They seemed to like Sthele and Polanco, and Roman looked solid but may be a reliever. We do have two bigger-money starter prospects we drafted in 2024 in 4th rounder Jackson Kent (Arizona) and 6th rounder Davian Garcia; I sense both will be looked at hard for the low-A rotation. I’ll hedge and put Garcia in FCL rotation to start. Lastly the two FCL rotation stalwarts probably deserve a run.
2025 rotation prediction: Tolman, Aldonis, Kent, Colon, Portorreal, with Sthele, Polanco, Romero as LR/SS options. (dl: Sullivan, Agostini)
Rookie FCL Nats
- Opening Day: Colon, Portorreal, CSanchez, BRomero, Farias
- End of May: Colon, Portorreal, CSanchez, BRomero, Farias
- End of June: Colon, Portorreal, CSanchez, BRomero, and rehabbers
- End of July/Season: Colon, Portorreal, CSanchez, BRomero, Saenz (rehab)
2024 Discussion: The FCL rotation was basically 4 guys and a rehabber all year. Sanchez and Romero earned their promotions, Colon and Portorreal pitched decently all year.
2025 Outlook: I sense we’ll see the team take the same tactic in 2025 for FCL that they did in 2024: all DSL graduates plus rehabbers. I’ll put 2024 draftee Garcia here, along with 2024 reliever Angel Roman and Moreno, who was hurt all 2024. Then the rest will be filled by DSL graduates and rehabbers.
2025 rotation prediction: Garcia, Roman, Moreno, Feliz, Lunar
DSL Nats
- Opening Day: De La Cruz, Oliveros, Hernandez, Vera, Feliz
- End of June: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Feliz, Thomas,
- End of July: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Feliz, Thomas, with Juan Reyes as an “opener.”
- End of August: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Feliz, Reyes, Lunar
- End of Season: De La Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Feliz, Lunar,
2024 Discussion: There’s only 2-3 arms worth talking about in the DSL: Feliz and Lunar, maybe Reyes. The Rest were bad, like 8ERA Bad.
2025 Outlook: I’d like to see Feliz, Lunar, and Reyes come stateside. Reyes had a bunch of “starts” but they were all 1 inning gigs; he’ll head to the bullpen. But Felix looks like he could be a starter candidate. That leaves the rest of these starters to repeat DSL in 2025. We’ll addin a couple of Jan IFA signings and that’ll be the 2025 rotation.
2025 rotation prediction: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, and two 2025 signings
Did I forget anyone? Agree or disagree with 2025 opening day predictions?