Nationals Arm Race

Here’s my “who i’d vote for” on the 2025 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.

I’ve fallen out of the habit of doing this post. I did a quick search and the last time I did this was three years ago for the 2022 ballot. I guess, once the PED guys fell off the ballot, it wasn’t nearly as interesting/argumentative. We still have a couple PED guys left, but the massive backlog on the ballot is now gone.

Here’s my reasoning, player by player, on the 2025 ballot.

Methodology/thought process: While I like using WAR and JAWS here, I also like pointing out the “fame” factor. The Hall of Fame is missing players who were better than others b/c they weren’t nearly as famous for one reason or an other, and that’s just the way it is. I only touch on it a couple times here, but it matters.

New Candidates first.

• Ichiro Suzuki: 100% yes. Had 3,000 hits despite not debuting in the MLB until his age 27 season, and had 1200 more hits in Japan. Has a credible argument for being the best pure hitter in the history of the game. 10 straight ASGs in his first 10 years here, a MVP and a ROY in his debut season. Should be unanimous.
• CC Sabathia: Yes. 250 wins (the “new 300”) and 3,000 career strikeouts. He was in the top five Cy Young voting for years in his prime. Absolutely a star, a workhorse, and zero PED accusations. He may struggle to get to 75% b/c his peripherals aren’t awesome (3.74 career ERA, 116 ERA+) but he’ll get in eventually.
• Dustin Pedroia: No. he’s got a credible argument, having better career stats than a slew of 2B who were enshrined by various veteran’s committees. For me, not enough of a sustained peak; he had a ROY and MVP in back to back seasons then kind of disappeared. Basically out of the game by 33, so not enough longevity.
• Ian Kinsler: No. almost identical WAR figures to Pedroia but his overall stats aren’t anywhere close. He’s off by 30 points in BA, was just a shade above average in OPS+, and the closest he ever got to an MVP award was an 11th place finish in 2011. Just not good enough.
• Felix Hernandez: No. He’s a crazy case: from the age of 23 to 29 he was one of the best 2-3 arms in the sport. Won a Cy Young, had two 2nd places and a 4th place, threw a perfect game, had a couple of 170 ERA+ seasons. Then … he struggled for a few years, opted out the Covid year, and never came back. His elbow just gave up on him. He was throwing mid-80s in 2021 when he gave up. Like Johan Santana and Bret Saberhagen and Dave Stieb before him, he was great for a while, but not good for enough time.
• Troy Tulowitzki: no. A guy who we thought might revolutionize the position of SS, he just couldn’t stay healthy. He suffered a laundry list of injuries, mostly to his lower half, which eventually drove him from the game at age 34. He never really accumulated enough accolades to even be consiered here.
• No for the rest of the marginal candidates, Ben Zobrist, Curtis Granderson, Hanley Ramirez, Russell Martin, Adam Jones, Brian McCann, Carlos Gonzalez, and the sole player here with Nats ties: Fernando Rodney (he played his last year with us in 2019 and is forever on our “Nats to Oblivion” post).

Returning Candidates:

• Billy Wagner: No. I know the argument. If so-and-so mediocre closer gets in (Lee Smith, Trevor Hoffman), then so should Wagner b/c his numbers were so dominant. Here’s a simple question for my readers, since Wagner pitched in our division for nearly a decade; did you come to the ballpark to see Wagner come into a 3-run game in the 9th to blow away three mediocre hitters? No? I didn’t think so. He was a closer at a time when there were 10 closers with dominant numbers. I won’t get all mad if he makes it to the Hall, since it’ll be his last year and he only missed by a handful of votes last year, but to me he’s a one-trick pony who was never famous enough to be in the Hall.
• Andruw Jones: Yes. For a decade, he was the next coming of Willie Mays: hit for power, hit for average, amazing defender. Then he fell off of a cliff performance wise, and struggled for 5 years before hanging ’em up at 35. Despite this, he still has 62 career bWAR and ranks 11th all time for CFs in the history of the sport. I’m a yes.
• Carlos Beltran: Yes. He was so good for so long. Never quite got to benchmark hitter thresholds (he had 434 homers, 2725 hits) but had a career 119 OPS+ and he was a true center fielder with 70 career bWAR. Every CF with more career WAR than him is enshrined, and a slew below him are on the way.
• Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez: Yes. you’re either vehemently anti-PED guys and are automatic “No” votes on players like this, or you’re like me and believe the issue just isn’t that simple. If you disagree with me, I get it. This isn’t the hill I’m necessarily willing to die on, but I do believe the Hall is now missing 10 guys who really should be there. In this case, A-Rod and Manny were morons and cheated later in their careers; they were still two of the best players to ever play and the whole point of the Hall of Fame is to bring awareness to the best who ever played, warts and all.
• Chase Utley: No. He’s a better candidate than either Pedroia or Kinsler, but he never had any post-season accolades and he played the game like such an a-hole, purposely trying to injure players, that I’d imagine he’ll struggle to get votes from many writers who remember what he did to players. MLB literally added a rule in the wake of an Utley play (where he broke Ruben Tejada’s leg), and he had at least two other incidents in his career that made it really hard to root for the guy, even if he was on your team.
• No to the rest: Vizquel, Abreu, Rollins, Pettitte, Buehrle, K-Rod, Torii Hunter, David Wright. A couple of these guys i’m shocked they’re still on the ballot.

So my fake ballot would have 6 names on it: Suzuki, Sabathia, Jones, Beltran, Rodriguez, and Ramirez. A long way from the days when we had to drop players to get to the 10-man limit.