The first shop to try to do a major rank of Nationals prospects (Prospects1500) has dropped its rankings for our system. Let’s walk through their ranks and I’ll add some comments.
I have a draft 2025 ranking for our system that (believe it or not) goes out to 90 or so guys, which is kind of ridiculous when we currently (according to the Big Board) have 150 signed minor leaguers domestically. But, even given that my draft list is 90 deep, Prospects1500 still managed to rank three players that I don’t have in my top 90, and who have been ranked for the very first time on any list. We’ll get to them later, and discuss whether they should have even been ranked.
Here’s the top 50 for Prospects1500 in a quick table format:
| Rank | Last Name | First Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crews | Dylan | OF (CF) |
| 2 | House | Brady | SS/3B |
| 3 | Sykora | Travis | RHP (Starter) |
| 4 | King | Seaver | SS |
| 5 | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) |
| 6 | Morales | Yohandy | 3B |
| 7 | Clemmey | Alex | LHP (Starter) |
| 8 | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) |
| 9 | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) |
| 10 | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) |
| 11 | Wallace | Cayden | 3B |
| 12 | Lomavita | Caleb | C |
| 13 | Hurtado | Victor | OF |
| 14 | Stuart | Tyler | RHP (Starter) |
| 15 | Green | Elijah | OF (CF) |
| 16 | Lara | Andry | RHP (Starter) |
| 17 | Dickerson | Luke | SS/CF |
| 18 | Vaquero | Cristian | OF (CF) |
| 19 | Bennett | Jake | LHP (Starter) |
| 20 | Pinckney | Andrew | OF (Corner) |
| 21 | Feliz | Angel | 3B/SS |
| 22 | Made | Kevin | SS |
| 23 | Ramirez Jr. | Rafael | SS |
| 24 | Rutledge | Jackson | RHP (Starter) |
| 25 | Lord | Brad | RHP (Starter) |
| 26 | Bazzell | Kevin | C/3B |
| 27 | Reifert | Evan | RHP (Reliever) |
| 28 | Feliz | Jose | RHP (Starter) |
| 29 | Baker | Darren | 2B |
| 30 | Brzykcy | Zach | RHP (Reliever) |
| 31 | Ribalta | Orlando | RHP (reliever) |
| 32 | Cruz | Armando | SS |
| 33 | Grissom | Marquis | RHP (Reliever) |
| 34 | De La Rosa | Jeremy | OF (Corner) |
| 35 | Millas | Drew | C |
| 36 | White | T.J. | OF (Corner) |
| 37 | Kent | Jackson | LHP (Starter) |
| 38 | Shuman | Seth | RHP (Starter) |
| 39 | Alvarez | Andrew | LHP (Starter) |
| 40 | Acosta | Daison | RHP (reliever) |
| 41 | Cox | Brenner | OF (CF) |
| 42 | Jones | Sir Jamison | CA |
| 43 | Choi | Hyun-Il | RHP (Starter) |
| 44 | Glasser | Phillips | SS |
| 45 | Mota | Jorgelys | SS |
| 46 | Cooper | Everett | SS |
| 47 | Chapparo | Andres | 1B/DH |
| 48 | Quintana | Roismar | 1B/OF |
| 49 | Narango | Joe | 1B |
| 50 | Pimentel | Brandon | 1B |
Now, lets do some reactions.
- Their top 5 for our system is essentially the same as every other shop’s top 5, in some order or another. You can quibble with House/Sykora for #2.
- The first bogey; Morales comes in at #6. They’re putting a ton of weight on his AA finish last year. He hit .206 in April but then .357 in September in the same league. I still think this is too high; if he’s 1B only I need to see more homers (just 7 in 435 ABs so far professionally).
- They like Daylen Lile slightly more than me, but so does everyone. Every scouting report I see on this guy says he’s a great contact hitter and a great base-runner. So, where’s the stats? Career .262 batting average (that’s elite bat-to-ball skills?) and just 50 Sbs 255 career games? A .351 OBP for his career? What am I missing here? What makes him any better than Jake Alu (career minor league slash line of .282/.342/.437 with 57 SBs in 420 minor league games, but with more power). I see a 5th OF ceiling. He’s only 22 and in AA, fair point, but he’s also going to be rule-5 eligible after 2025. Based on what you’ve seen, would you protect him right now?
- Victor Hurtado at #13. I’m at least 10 spots lower on this guy right now, and I wonder if they’re looking at the same guy I am. Their line in the link is, “Hurtado is very young but performed well in the Rookie league and has solid tools across the board. He’s one to keep an eye on in this tier.” Uh; “performed well?” He hit .218 in the DSL this season, with almost no speed, no power, and a 2/1 K/BB ratio. Did anyone check this guy’s stats before they wrote that line? Where’s the ranking for the DSL guys who actually hit this year? Missing, that’s where. We’ll get to that at the bottom when we talk about players not in their top 50.
- They’re lower on Andry Lara than they should be. Quote: “ Lara was a highly touted international signing whose results haven’t matched the ability in his four years with the organization.” Um, again, what are these guys watching? Lara, as a 22yr old, got promoted to AA after a month, then had a 3.63 ERA in 19 starts. Yes, in the macro his minor league stats don’t look that great … but year after year he’s been in leagues where he was among the youngest players there, pitchers or hitters. I’ve got Lara well inside our top 10, not buried in the teens.
- They’re a little higher on Vaquero (18) and Bennett (19) than I am. I’m just not impressed with the size of your signing bonus versus your on-the-field accomplishments. As for Bennett, maybe it isn’t fair to ding him for TJ, but after what we’ve seen from Cavalli, i’m gun shy for sure.
- Kevin Made: this guy seems to be a favorite of prospect hounds everywhere. I don’t see it. I see a guy who has no power and little speed who was the “flier prospect guy” in a deadline deal trade. I’ve got him ranked in the 30s, not just outside the top 20.
- Rutledge and Lord: a tale of two approaches. I see Lord as someone who is still proving in AAA they can be an effective starter, while Rutledge is proving he’s a 2-pitch guy who needs to be a reliever. One of these profiles has much more value than the other: can you guess which one? As a result, i’ve got Lord in the mid-teens and Rutledge outside the top 30 on my rankings, not ranked side by side like this shop.
- They’re not fans of Bazzell at all: MLBpipeline has him #14 in the system.
- Brzycky and Ribalta: i’ve said my peace on ranking relievers. I won’t rank a middle reliever in my top 30 anymore. Even the better middle relievers in our bullpen are barely worth half a win a season, and the best of them (Law and Florio last year) were in the 1.6-1.9 range). It’s far more likely we call up these two guys, they get shelled, they go back down, and they ahve negative bWAR (that describes precisely what all of these guys did in 2024: Adon, Weems, Barnes, Brzycky, Ribalta, and Willingham).
At this point we’re in the 30-50 range, so it’s a little harder to be critical, so I’ll just highlight guys that I think they’re way off on.
- Jeremy De la Rosa at #34: he hit .167 in High-A … then got promoted to AA where he hit .161. He’s now spent parts of 3 seasons in Wilmington and has not been competent. Is he a prospect at all? I mean, they have him above Millas, who a lot of readers right now think should be the backup MLB catcher. I’ve got De la Rosa 30 spots lower in my ranks.
- TJ White: see comments about De la Rosa above for the most part.
- Jackson Kent was ranked #24 by MLBpipeline but 37 by these guys; a season on the field should resolve this.
- They have little faith in Andrew Alvarez.
- They still have Brennar Cox ranked, which seems crazy at this point. Exhibit 1-A on the risks of drafting HS kids.
- Thus, its fitting that they have Sir Jamison Jones at #42, right below Cox. Another prep Catcher who could be decent, could go nowhere. What’s odd is, they put Jones in their top 50 but not a couple of DR prospects who actually hit this year (Dashyll Tejeda and Carlos Tavares). I did not have Jones in my top 90, perhaps an oversight.
- Then, perhaps the oddest rankings on their list: #49 and #50 are two 1B only guys in Naranjo and Pimentel, a MLFA and NDFA. Naranjo hit .208 in Wilmington for us in 2024. Pimentel hit .274 in Fredericksburg … as a 24-yr old man amongst kids. I didn’t have either of these guys in my top 90, but i’ve put them in the 70+ range for now.
Who’s missing?
- As mentioned above, a couple of DSL decent performers for 2024
- Cole Henry: probably not a surprise.
- No Nasim Nunez, who b-r.com has exhausting his rookie status in 2024. By service time, not by PAs. If you wanted to quibble and be like some shops that ignore service time and go by PAs/IPs, i’d have Nunez in the mid 40s.
- Not much else to mention; there’s some names outside their top 50 that have gotten a bit of prospect love in the past (Peterson, Cabrera, Brown, Saenz, etc) who don’t really merit it anymore.
That’s the first big prospect rank. What do you think?
Jake Alu was older the day they drafted him than Daylin Lile is now. you can question his prospect status but that’s hardly a fair comp. to nit-pick a bit he didn’t turn 22 until after his season a AA.
FredMD
6 Jan 25 at 1:37 pm
While I agree with many of your quibbles, I think it’s a pretty solid list. Going 50 deep on every team is a gigantic exercise, and I feel like I remember previous years being worse.
Going through:
I’m with them on Morales. Taking his whole year together, it was a 119 wRC+ as a 22 year old in AA. I’ve been kind of shocked at how far most evaluators have dropped him after he was such a draft darling. Especially since the “He was injured and raked when he got back” is at least mildly persuasive given the 147 wRC+ in AA post return. That’s babip inflated, and his ISO was disappointing – so it wasn’t all good news, but for now I have him grouped with King and Cavalli in a band after our top 4.
And then I agree with their list and have Lile, Clemmey, Hassell and Wallace in my next group. I have Lara behind them, but can see the argument that he should be in that mix. My main point of disagreement in the top 30 is really just that I’m lower on all the non-King recent draftees, but I’m ready to move them up if they show well in the first half next year.
You nail the important misses – Tejada and Taveres make so so much more sense than Pimental and Naranjo. And I don’t really care much about including or omitting Nunez and Millas, but they should have some consistent policy and stick to it. Otherwise, it looks like carelessness.
I think you’re in general too quick to drop teenagers with tools and projection but poor results. Hurtado and Vaquero and even Cox feel plausibly ranked here to me. That said, I am more agreeable to the harsher takes once they’re a bit older. For example, I also have De La Rosa, who is about to turn 23, as basically a post-prospect and off my top 50 at this point. And I also rank Made, who is 22, in the mid 30s.
The other group that I think you’re too harsh on is relief-only pitchers. One part of that is that I don’t think you can trust saves and games finished as meaningful stats in the minors and therefore shouldn’t give any extra penalties to middle relievers. But I also think you’re inflating the value of non-relief prospects that are ranked in that same band. Yes, relievers have capped value, but they’re also way more likely to make the 40 and provide some value at some point in their careers.
Here’s what I mean. Ignoring Rutledge, who I think is still being graded here as a possible starter, the highest ranked relief prospects are Reifert (27th), Brzykcy (30th), Ribalta (31st) and Grissom (33rd). Compare that to J Feliz (28th), Baker (29th), Cruz (32nd), and De La Rosa (34th). J Feliz looks promising, but he signed with no hype and hasn’t pitched stateside yet. How far are you willing to project based on 50 innings in the DR? Baker had a hot cup of coffee in the majors and because of that may end up leading this cohort in career WAR, but he’s limited to 2B or LF and has never had an impact bat. I’d say his ceiling is pretty capped too. And I don’t think you’ll disagree that Cruz and JDLR aren’t even really prospects at this point. If we had the chance to trade Ribalta, say, for some other team’s version of one of those four guys, I sure wouldn’t do it.
My point is that almost all prospects are extremely flawed and unlikely to provide significant value. Even guys like House and Sykora have bust rates of like 30%. Guys on the backend of top 30s pretty much all have capped upside and bust rates 80%+. I think we actually have a pretty deep system, but I think ranking our best relief-only arms in the 25-35 range is absolutely correct.
SMS
6 Jan 25 at 2:41 pm
@fredMD: Lile vs Alu was, of course, stat based and not age based. I’ve been pretty consistent on Lile in all my writings. I just don’t see stars when i see this guy, never have. Would love to be proven wrong, but there’s no stand-out skill.
BA grades for Lile: Hit: 55. Power: 45. Speed: 50. Fielding: 50. Arm: 45.
So, translating, he’s a non-plus defender with a weak arm, which means he’ll never be better at CF than Crews, Young, Wood, so that means a corner OF. But with a 45 arm that means no Right field … so now you’re talking a 5’11” left fielder with no power. Uh … LF is where you stick your power hitting OF who can’t play the other two positions. So …where does Lile play in a modern outfield?
Furthermore, he’s a 50 speed but has almost no SB history, and his best tool his 55 hit tool is a career .262 hitter in the minors.
And this is a top 10 system prospect?
Todd Boss
6 Jan 25 at 3:08 pm
SMS: multiple points.
– I hope you’re right on Morales and he picks up where he left off.
– I am quick to drop DSL and teenagers. Because they havn’t done jack. Call it “Yasel Antuna” syndrome: i don’t care what your signing bonus was; until you produce in a domestic league, youre edge case prospect at best. And, if you frigging get $3M and hit .219 in the DSL, then holy cow there better be a good explanation.
– Relievers in the minors. Yes, they’re important pieces to produce as a system, but they’re not prospects. Is Baker a prospect? No, b/c his ceiling is backup middle infielder. Farm systems need to generate near-zero WAR players to fill out the back ends of rosters; middle infielders, 4th outfielders, 6th/7th bullpen RHP arms; just because a guy like Ribalta is on track to pitch a few dozen low-leverage mop up innings doesn’t mean he’s a prospect. Furthermore, every reliever is a failed starter. Mariano Rivera; couldn’t cut it as a MLB starter, but was one of the best relievers in history. A reliever in AA? not a prospect. Matt frigging Cronin: 214 Ks in 162 career IPs in the minors and wasn’t even protected in rule5 minor league phase.
I mean, I also get that you get below 20th best prospect in a system and … well if 1 or 2 of those guys makes the majors it’s a huge surprise. So a lot of this is splitting hairs. Fair enough. But it Happens. Jacob Young didn’t appear on a prospect list for basically his first two years playing here, then was in the 30+ range. now he’s a gold glove calibre guy.
Todd Boss
6 Jan 25 at 3:23 pm
Here’s an interesting comparison:
Stats 2023-2024
Player A: 84 wRC+, .212/.285/.371/.656, 21 HR, 27 SB, OF who plays mostly CF, played across A, A+ and AA, turns 23 next week
Player B: 85 wRC+, .229/.322/.324/.646, 14 HR, 30 SB, OF who plays mostly CF, played across A, A+, AA and AAA, turned 23 in August
You may have figured it out by now, but A is de la Rosa and B is Hassell. I really don’t get the difference in ratings between the two guys, besides prospect fatigue for de la Rosa. I’d drop Hassell significantly, and have all but written off de la Rosa too.
It’s also curious that Millas and Chaparro feature as low as they do, despite putting up decent-to-very good major league numbers already. Millas has already been worth 0.5 WAR in his short major league career, which is 100% certain to be better than all but 3 or 4 guys (if we’re lucky) ahead of him on this list. That HAS TO count for something.
Otherwise, I’m kind of splitting hairs by expecting Dickerson a few notches higher, Green a few lower, and the relievers generally a few spots higher. But we’ve already debated this, so I won’t belabor the point. The relievers, in general, are pretty accurately ordered, so again, it’s not a big deal.
Altogether, this is a pretty solid list for a site that isn’t specialized to Nats coverage. Maybe they’ve been checking their work here?
Will
6 Jan 25 at 4:18 pm
Here’s another comparison:
2024
Player A: 94 wRC+, .208/.293/.355/.648, .147 ISO, 13 HR, 39 SB, CF, turned 21 a month ago
Player B: 115 wRC+, .204/.352/.349/.701, .144 ISO, 8 HR, 29 SB, RF, turns 21 in May
Both played exclusively in Fredericksburg, and were even drafted in the same year (2022)
You also probably guessed it, but A is Elijah Green and B is Brenner Cox, and yet many still consider Green a high rated prospect and Cox a non-factor. If you’re still willing to ignore Green’s 3 years of performances and dream of his tools, it’s only fair to keep the flame burning for Cox too, who was considered quite a coup to get in the 4th round back in 2022.
Will
6 Jan 25 at 4:31 pm
@KW – I get that sometimes it’s required because of small sample sizes, but I don’t think it usually makes sense to combine stats across minor league levels because variations in opposition, as well as league and park averages, can be so distorting.
With that in mind, I offer this possibly fairer comparison between Hassell and JLDR:
Hassell, in 2024 as a 22 year old in AA hit .271/.357/.371 for a wRC+ of 113 (264 PAs). JLDR, in 2024 as a 22 year old in AA hit .161/.239/.298 for a wRC+ of 53 (180 PAs).
Perhaps that is why most evaluators perceive a meaningful gap between the two.
SMS
6 Jan 25 at 7:00 pm
I have to laugh at the concept of making even longer lists, including more and more guys who will never even see Harrisburg. When I did the top arms and top bats lists for Luke’s site, I struggled to come up with nine potential starting pitchers for the arms, and threw in Grissom for good measure (he’s ranked too low here). But there are a number of guys beyond the big names with varying degrees of promise like Lord, Stuart, Clemmey, and Alvarez (despite what this list thinks of most of them).
With the hitters, egad. It was NOT a good year for bats in the organization, at all. Beyond Wood, the hitter who had the second-best season was . . . Glasser? Maybe? He’s a 24-year-old senior signee with a best-case ceiling comparable to Jake Noll. Good for him, but . . .
On the bats posts on Luke’s site, Will and I both documented the total lack of power in the organization. And let’s face it, folks, it’s a power game now. You’re looking for middle infielders who can top 20 homers. ANY power surges in 2025 would be most welcome.
Anyway, I’m not that concerned with who got ranked 34th instead of 24th. I’m concerned with the very small handful of guys who can make or break (keep broken?) this franchise. There were Harper comps on Crews, or at least Rendon ones. We were told that he was a generational, can’t-miss talent. He certainly hasn’t failed, but he’s also not close to setting the world on fire yet. Start by taking some walks, superstar. Be more selective.
Next comes House, who slashed .241/.297/.402 across two levels last summer. They promoted him to AAA when he was hitting .234. Can’t take a walk to save his life. John C. in particular has been telling us all winter not to count on House too much and too soon with the big club in 2025, and he’s right.
I’m not dismissing these dudes. They have star talent, maybe superstar talent, and they’ve already made a lot more with it than Green and Vaquero have. But they’ve also still got to prove that they can take the next steps to be quality MLB players. Their former AAA teammate Carter Kieboom can tell them not to take that for granted.
Sykora also seems to have star-level talent, but A ball is a long way from Half Street. Susana had times where he looked just as dominant, and times where he didn’t. We need our studs to truly turn out to be MLB studs.
(Along those lines, I’m confounded like the rest of you by the unwillingness of the gurus to highly rank Lara now that he’s actually living up to the hype that they were giving him a couple of years ago.)
A lot of the draft guys loved Seaver King . . . but he only played one year of D1 ball, and only 30 games at SS in college. So he’s a total unknown until he actually does something.
I’ll back SMS on continuing to back Morales. He struggled with some injuries, so he really has an incomplete right now. (I’d say the same about Bennett on the pitching side, someone I was high on before he lost the season.) The other thing to note with Morales is that they pushed him, Crews, and Pinckney all the way to AA for their first full pro seasons. That’s a big ask. Will they do the same with King and Lomavita? If they’re that afraid of the Wilmington ballpark, then they need to do something about it (move in the fences?).
I agree with the skepticism that Lile can show enough power to be a corner OF. I also agree that he’s still young and might grow into more. This time last offseason I was floating the question of who ya got for the third OF of the future: Lile, Hassell, or Pinckney? Or Green or Vaquero if you’re a real optimist. Well, here we are another year later with no additional clarity, but with Jacob Young having thrown down an ante to beat. For the record, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hassell surprises us. I’m not counting on it, but I think it’s more of a possibility than most here will buy.
Who is missing from the top 50? I’ll put a nickel on Randal Diaz, 5th-round pick, who had an outstanding season at the plate for Indiana State. (On the draft flip side, I see nothing in Jackson Kent’s numbers that encourage me.)
But a new season is on the horizon, and they’re ALL gonna be great, right?
KW
6 Jan 25 at 7:37 pm
@SMS, you’re responding to Will, not me. I still have some (probably irrational) hope that injuries have been holding Hassell back and that he’ll eventually look like the #8 overall draft pick he once was. Of course at this point we’d take him looking like a potential 4th OF.
KW
6 Jan 25 at 7:41 pm
And we also have the totally forgotten Cade Cavalli down at #9. IF he can make it fully back, he’s still a potential #1-2 starter. He won’t be that this year, but it’s still possible. If given the choice of any guy ranked ahead of him or Cavalli, how many of them would you take ahead of Cade?
KW
6 Jan 25 at 8:19 pm
@Todd – That’s a really interesting comment about players with similar capped upside to relievers (ie bench roles) not being prospects at all, and I think I need to think a bit more about it. But my initial reactions are:
1. A good bench bat or spot starter is very easily worth 1 WAR per year, and a 3-4 year arc of that production at or near a league minimum salary provides $20M in surplus value. If a player were available to be drafted with that as a ceiling and a 50-50 shot at achieving it, I don’t believe there’s any chance they’d get past the 2nd round.
2. A non-elite reliever isn’t quite that good, and probably is worth more like 0.5 WAR per year, but – unless they get assigned to close games – arbitration never gets too expensive, so you might get 6 years of value despite the low ceiling. That has decent value – we just got 2 years of a very good 1B for 5 years of a relief arm that might become elite and might bust, but is probably expected to be in this exact range: good and useful but not elite. That required him to show the potential in the majors for a season, so it’s not an apples to apples comp. But every one of these relief “prospects” is a bite at that apple, and even if it’s 4 busts for every success, I think that justifies ranking the better ones in the 25-30 range.
3. That all said, I could get behind a structure that was three separate lists. One, real prospects, and the length would vary from 15 to 25 based on the depth in the system. Two, folks tracking to have somewhat like shots at low ceiling roles. (These would almost all be from AA or AAA.) Three, folks who are very likely to bust but have interesting upside. And the last two lists wouldn’t need to be ranked, which would save us from the slightly silly hair splitting.
SMS
6 Jan 25 at 8:22 pm
@KW + Will – Oh, yes, I was responding to Will. Sorry about the misattribution! I’m probably between you two on Hassell, but honestly I think his ranking is justified even if it’s “likely usable OF4 and a small chance for more”.
SMS
6 Jan 25 at 8:24 pm
@SMS: Here’s some quick analysis looking at the Nats’ “fringe” players collectively last year on this same topic:
o bWAR of backup middle infielders Vargas, Nunez, Baker, Lipscomb: 0.1 combined between the four
o bWAR of backup outfielders: we didn’t really have “4th outfielders” this year in the definition of this conversation.
o bWAR of backup catchers Adam, Millas: 0.6
o bWAR of middle-relief RHPs: JBarnes, MBarnes, Rainey, Weems, Salazar, Adon, Rutledge, Brzycky, Ribalta, Willingham: -0.9 for all 10 guys collectively.
o (for comparison): bWAR of high-leverage 8th/9th inning guys: Finnegan, Law, Harvey, Floro: 4.5
This is just one team, for one year, but it supports what i’m saying. Throw together all your backup infielders, your 4th outfielders, your backup catchers, and all your backup RHP relievers and you get basically half your roster just treading water form a performance perspective. But our four best relievers? More than all those RHPs combined.
I think this really comes into play when evaluating ceiling of players. I’ll use Daylen Lile as a simple example: he’s not known for being a plus defender, which will push him out of CF. He does not have a great arm, which will push him to LF. He doesn’t have great power, so unless he’s hitting .300 in the majors consistently with gap power, he’ll be sat in favor of a prototypical “slugging outfielder who you “hide” in left field” type. So … to me Lile’s ceiling is as a 4th outfielder. Maybe he hits well enough that a team gives up defense in CF and sticks him there … but man he better hit. But that’s not what we’re seeing in the minors: i’m not seeing a guy tear up A ball to a .350 tune. We’re seeing good but not amazing batting averages.
Todd Boss
7 Jan 25 at 11:31 am
@Todd – First, a few quibbles. I don’t think it’s fair to combine production across a group of prospects like that. Adon’s failures don’t devalue Lara, and Kieboom’s bust doesn’t mean House isn’t a prospect. By bWAR, Nunez was worth 0.7 lat year. If you believe that’s a sustainable level of production, that’s not bad for a bench piece, and I’d say that a 1 in 4 shot at that is worth more than the expected surplus value of, say, Jose Feliz, just to pick a random fringe prospect that we all agree actually shows some promise.
And, on the relievers, you dropped the most successful call-up in Ferrer, and are including some arms that are only listed because they were bad. Neither Barnes belongs in this comparison set, and really Weems and Rainey don’t either. And Adon is exactly the kind of failed or failing starter that you seem to be arguing should stay on the top 30 lists. The one-year, one-team analysis of minor league relievers being called up to the big league team should be Ferrer, Salazar, Ribalta, Brzycky and Willingham. By bWAR, I get 0.5, 0.5, -0.1, -0.3, and -0.1, for a total of +0.5. And I think even that undervalues the actual contribution because, when you looks at innings pitched by each of them, Salazar and Ferrer did decent volume for a rookie reliever (~30 IP) and the other 3 pitched a total of 10 IP. So I think you can say that the team found two useful relievers, rather than then team got a half-win of production.
Setting aside whether you believe Brzycky and Ribalta’s can meaningfully improve and find success in the majors, the value provided by Ferrer and Salazar supports ranking Grissom or Reifert as highly as they are.
Perhaps more substantively, I want to say that I’m finding your bear case on Lile pretty persuasive. I still don’t see how I can rank him meaningfully below Hassell, but I am coming around to knocking both of them back a few places. Right now I have them 8th and 10th, and I’m thinking they should be more like 12th and 13th. And I agree that, for each of them, a lot their potential value comes from futures where they are useful bench pieces.
If we’re rounding the value of those contributions to zero, they should probably fall even father. Actually, that brings up an interesting thought experiment. I’d say Green is the most boom-or-bust bat in the system. There really isn’t a very likely future where he moderately improves and becomes a useful bench piece. He either fixes his swing and generates 4 WAR a year, or never makes enough contact to roster. I think we all agree that the chances of the former are very small, but not zero.
If we stipulate that Green is more likely to get MVP votes than Lile or Hassell, but also way way more likely to completely bust, enough so that his average expected production is distinctly lower – should Green be ranked higher than Lile or Hassell?
Because I think that’s my biggest push back on dropping these relievers. If I’m only ranking prospects who I can reasonably project into 2+ WAR/yr roles, I run out names pretty quickly.
SMS
7 Jan 25 at 2:01 pm
Combining WAR across dozens of players: i mean, yes that’s a fair point. I guess my larger point was … for every half a win reliever there’s another one to offset him. For Nunez’ positive 0.7 there’s Vargas’ negative war of about the same value.
I did ignore the lefties (including Ferrer) b/c to me, lefty relievers are a little rarer and are more of a special case. You don’t have to be nearly the talent if you’re a lefty to make the majors and stick in the bullpen.
Hassell vs Lile: I have stayed more positive on Hassell than Lile, because he’s a true CF and has better tools across the board. BA’s same scouting grades for both:
– Hassell: Hitting: 60. Power: 45. Speed: 55. Fielding: 55. Arm: 55
– Lile: Hitting: 55. Power: 45. Speed: 50. Fielding: 50. Arm: 45.
So, Hassell projects to have a better hit tool, more speed, better fielding, and significantly better arm.
Todd Boss
7 Jan 25 at 3:53 pm
Going to BA’s tool grades is begging the question because other evaluators don’t agree.
Both FG and Pipeline have Lile a half grade better on hit and power. FG also has Lile as a half grade faster. Everyone agrees that Hassell has the better arm.
Lile also had a lower K% and a higher ISO than Hassell in AA last year despite being more than a year younger. I get Hassell projecting better defensively, and that flexibility makes him more valuable as an OF4, if nothing else, but I think Lile has a slightly better offensive profile and they’re similar enough that I’m going to bet on the younger prospect.
But look, they’re close and, if you’re higher on Hassell, that’s not something I’ll fight you on. My dissonance around it is that – these two aren’t lockdown future stars but they’re very clearly real legit prospects. They have tools, and projection, and pedigree, and above average performance at a young age in the upper minors. I’m not sure any team has even 20 guys so valuable. And yet, if we’re going to round down future value that comes from filling bench roles and middle relief and spot starts, these two guys have barely any value left. Your case for how unlikely Lile is to fill a starting role is very persuasive, and I guess we can dream on a huge leap forward from Hassell’s and in his 99th percentile outcome, his 4 WAR/yr displaces JY’s 3. But that’s not at all likely and I’m not sure I can justify ranking either one on their 2+ WAR/yr outcomes alone. And if they’re the borderline cases, forget top 50s, we should be doing top 15s. And then I’d agree that we can ignore any relief-only arms.
SMS
7 Jan 25 at 6:29 pm