The class of 2025 is now set.
Two first-ballot hall of famers in CC Sabathia and Ichiro Suzuki will join last-gasp 10th ballot electee and Virginia native Billy Wagner in Cooperstown later this year. They’ll be part ofa 5-man class, joined by selectees David Parker and Dick Allen.
Here’s some quick thoughts.
1,. Billy Wagner
In my HoF fake ballot post, I said i wouldn’t have voted for him. I went back and searched all my fake ballot posts going back to 2017 … and I’ve never really vacillated from this stance. In a couple of posts I said, “eh, maybe” on Wagner but I was never a yes. I think its a product of my reliever bias in general, whether it’s evaluating the value of a closer or the value of a prospect.
Nonetheless, you can’t argue with his dominance. A 187 CAREER ERA+ is nothing to shake a stick at, and I’m glad he’s in.
2. CC Sabathia
Sabathia becomes a first ballot Hall of Famer. I’ve always liked Sabathia and its a great honor to cap his career. Funny how nobody ever accused him of being a PED guy. He was more likely to be accused of being an all-you-can-eat buffet violator, not a drug test violator.
However, here’s a thought exercise for you. Here’s two arbitrary players overall career stats.
- Player A: 256-153 W/L, 3.85 career ERA, 117 career ERA+. 531 career games, 2448 career Ks. 3 ASG, 4 times in the Cy Young top 5 voting. 276 post season innings, 3.81 post season ERA.
- Player B: 251-161 W/L, 3.74 career ERA, 116 career ERA+. 561 career games, 3093 career Ks. 6 ASG, 5 times in Cy Young top 5 but won one. 130 post season innings, 4.38 career postseason ERA.
One of these players is first ballot hall of famer CC Sabathia. The other is Andy Pettitte, who never got above 27% support for the Hall. When you go to baseball-reference and scroll down to “Similarity Scores” for Pettitte … guess who is #1? You guessed it: Sabathia.
Does this make sense to you?
3. Ichiro Suzuki
The obvious storyline here is the one gutless BBWAA anonymous voter who left Suzuki off his ballot. There’s not a soul in the sport who can support denying Suzuki a vote. So he joins a small group of players who were denied unanimous induction by either one vote (Derek Jeter) or a handful of votes (Griffey missed 3 votes, Cobb 4, Seaver 5, Ryan 6, Ryan 8). Did you know that Babe Ruth was ommitted on NINE ballots in 1936?? Can you imagine the outcry in today’s social media landscape? The hated Ty Cobb got more votes than Ruth on the original HoFame ballot.
Anyway.
Next closest on the ballot were Beltran with 70% in his 3rd try, and Jones with 66% on his 8th try.
I support both candidates. Yes Beltran was embroiled in the Houston trash can banging scheme, but his career was clean during a time when PED was rampant. Jones was the next coming of Willie Mays until he wasn’t; I like both guys, and both have a good shot of going in soon. The 2026 ballot doesn’t exactly have inspiring first-time candidates: the highest bWAR new candidates are Cole Hamels (just 163 career wins) and Ryan Braun (with his testosterone test nonsense), so voters may lean into existing candidates a bit more. But, that’s a conversation for a year from now.
a few days ago I took a look an Jones’ stats. I was surprised at how good they are. he’ll get in and should.
you could argue that if CC played his entire career on the Yankee teams that Pettitte did his stats would be even better but yes, Andy deserves to get in.
FredMD
22 Jan 25 at 11:31 am
I’m more unsympathetic towards relievers in the context of greatness than I am when we’re discussing fringe prospects like we were a few weeks ago.
I believe that if you took all the SP2/3s in the league and converted them to be closers, something like 15% of them would fail and the rest would be excellent. So it’s weird that such a pitcher would have a decent chance make the hall if, and only if, there’s a rotation crunch or something at the right moment that forces his conversion.
Of course, no one actually cares enough about the HOF to make any decisions based on that perverse incentive but it just irks me a bit.
Still, as you say, Wagner’s rate stats were elite and if you’re going to induct relievers at all, it can’t just be Rivera, so I’m fine with him going in. It’s just interesting to see the voters pinch the starters with weaker cumulative stats because of modern usage and then reward the relievers who don’t even come close.
SMS
22 Jan 25 at 12:11 pm
If Pettitte gets in, Bonds, ARod, Clemens and the rest of the PED users had better get in too. Pettitte, as many seem to have forgotten, was included in the Mitchell Report, and then publicly admitted he used PED across multiple seasons.
Will
22 Jan 25 at 4:13 pm
I had forgotten that.
FredMD
22 Jan 25 at 4:45 pm
@SMS – your point regarding how successful converted starters would be is an interesting one. Luke Weaver must be your poster boy. he was probably a 3-5 SP so maybe even more proof. I will be interested to see how long he succeeds, if he does continue to do so.
FredMD
22 Jan 25 at 4:58 pm
@Will Pettitte didn’t admit to using steroids, but did admit to using HGH as a way to try to rehab from an injury in 2002. Which was the thing that got him into the Mitchell Report so the the two are not separate incidents. So the established/admitted violations are for the 2002 season, not over multiple seasons.
I’m not excusing it; I don’t think that I’d vote Pettitte for the HOF.
John C.
22 Jan 25 at 6:20 pm