![](http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Sykora-Travis-masn-nats-2024.jpg)
The first of the five “major” shops/pundits that evaluate and rank prospects (BA, MLBPipeline, Law, Longenhagen, and McDaniel) released their top 30s for systems today…. and boy is the Nats list weird.
I’ll go through the list as always, offering up opinions and observations.
First off, here’s their top 30.
Here we go.
top 10
- Same top 4 as everyone else, albeit dinging House a little bit. BA notes the same concerns that Law had with House, namely that he had like a 3% walk rate in AAA. I don’t think he’s ready for the Majors and can’t quite believe he’ll win the job out of MLB camp this spring, which would give him time to add some patience to his approach and not start his service time clock so early.
- Clemmey up at #6. I might be a little high on Clemmey in comparison to where i’m seeing him in other shops (the 5 rankings I have for him so far this off season go 6-7-6-6-6). Fair enough; he’s a young 19yr old who struck out 123 in 92 low-A innings. That doesn’t suck.
- Unlike some ranking shops who have given up hope on Cavalli, BA has him right there at #7. I’ve got him slightly lower based on fear that he’s not ever coming back, but BA has stayed strong.
- They’re super high on Lomavita at #8. This is a trend that we’ll see in this BA list the rest of the way; very bullish on brand new kids who have shown almost nothing yet at the pro level.
- I remain low-man on Lile, as discussed here multiple times, but BA having him at #10 tracks with most other shops.
Here’s 11-20.
- Ok, here’s where this starts to go off the rails. You have Dickerson at #11, who has zero pro at bats, and Hassell #12, who’s ended the season in AAA before he turned 23. Um. What are we doing here? Hassell likely gets MLB at bats THIS YEAR, even if he’s hitting .200 in AAA, because he’s now on the active roster. Dickerson may not even make the Low-A team in April. I get that prospect lists are a balancing act between floor and ceiling … but this one seems crazy to me.
- BA remembers how good Bennett was, and kept him exactly at #13, which is where they ranked him in Jan 2024. I wonder how quickly he gets back to High-A. Fairly or not, I’ve got him well lower on my rank, as do most other shops.
- The first appearance of 2025 IFA class star Brayan Cortesia on any ranking list, coming in at #17. With all due respect to his $1.9M bonus, this is way too high. Then again, I’m loath to rank a player anywhere in the top 30 these days until they make it to the FCL.
- Drew Millas at #18. Why? He’s frigging 27 and he’s a backup catcher as a ceiling and has been for five years. That’s not a prospect anymore; that’s called an org guy.
- How the hell is Andry Lara so low? I dunno, maybe i’m the only guy impressed by a guy with an ERA in the 3s as a 21yr old in AA never missing a start? Ok, maybe he’s not a top 5 prospect, but tell me you’d rather have Bennett (6 slots higher) than Lara right now.
- Rutledge at #20 ; they still have faith. I don’t. Unless he’s moving to the bullpen, what makes anyone think they’ll see anything different out of the guy in 2025?
21-30 … with obvious caveats about players in this range… but man there’s some crazy names here.
- Brzycky at #21: i’m on record saying this is too high for relievers, but whatever.
- Morales at #22. Wait, what?? Every other shop so far, including me, has him in the 8-9 range. #22?? In August of 2024, BA had him at #6 in the system, and in their scouting report they explicitly say that he had a thumb injury that hampered his production this year. Bennett misses a y ear to TJ and doesn’t get dinged a single slot, but Morales (who finished strong post injury) gets knocked down nearly 20 spots?? This makes no sense. But don’t worry, this isn’t even the dumbest ranking yet.
- At #24 I give you Robert Cranz. In case you don’t recognize the name, he was a 7th round pick in 2024, signed for $100k UNDER slot, was a reliever in college and went straight into Fredericksburg’s bullpen, where he threw a handful of playoff innings. #24 in the system. I didn’t have him in my top 90. In the scouting report it says the Nats may make him a starter … uh, if he could start, why didn’t he do so in college?? This ranking makes zero sense to me.
- Meanwhile, one slot later they have Tyler Stuart at #25, who STARTED 25 games last year between AA and AAA. I just don’t get it; you’d rank a college reliever with 6 pro innings higher than a starter who “solved” AA at age 24?
- Daniel Hernandez, 2025 IFA signing at #26. Sure.
- #27 Nasim Nunez, who had so few PAs last year that he still remains rookie eligible for shops like BA, who ignore service time. I wouldn’t have him this high, but wouldn’t be upset if someone ranked him in the 30s.
- Like Stuart, Brad Lord’s rise to AAA seems to be greeted at BA with a sniff. He’s at the back end of their top 30. Perhaps its just me impressed by what Lord has done. I think the knock on Lord is a lack of a 4th pitch. But, he’s a sinker guy, so often guys like this don’t bother learning two fastballs since their value is getting hitters to drive the ball into the ground.
- Rounding out the top 30, one last laugher; Brayan Romero. I almost wonder if this ranking is a joke to see if anyone’s paying attention. He posted a 5.52 ERA in Low-A this year as a 22yr old. Ok, so I understand he missed a season and he’s tooled up. But really.
Players they don’t have in their top 30 that I do:
- Chapparo: he’ll probably be on the MLB team, whether that counts for anything or not.
- Victor Hurtado and Armando Cruz: so we love Cortesia and his big bonus, but one-season-in Hurtado? Or Cruz, who (earned or not) ended the season in High-A?
- Darren Baker: I guess MLB-roster backup infielders aren’t as valuable as low-A middle releivers.
- Andrew Alvarez. Making AAA just doesn’t mean what it used to.
- Jackson Kent: wasn’t he the heralded arm out of the upper rounds of our 2024 draft? MLBPipeline has him in the mid 20s.
- Don’t forget about Rafael Ramirez
So, there you are. Strange one, this list was.
Hey wait, I thought I was the low man on Lile! LOL. The kid has made pretty decent progress through the minors, but he has only 15 homers through 255 pro games. It’s really hard to be a corner OF in the majors with that lack of pop unless you have some super-special talent like Ichiro or Billy Hamilton. Actually, a guy who comes to mind who did have a long career with a profile similar to Lile’s is . . . Davey Martinez.
I’ve mentioned before that all of these shops over-touted Lara before had had done anything, but now that he’s had a really solid season — solid at AA at age 21! — they’re treating him like a crazy ex girlfriend. What gives?
I completely agree about how ridiculous it is to rank guys who don’t even shave yet.
What guys DO matter sooner rather than (much) later? If they click, Cavalli and House have phenomenal upside. Have we completely given up hope that Cavalli could be a #1-2 starter? Certainly fingers crossed that he can make it all the way back. With House, I agree completely with the concerns that Law expressed. It is funny, though, that these guys are too dependent on the teams to openly criticize the Nats for promoting him when he wasn’t ready. He was hitting .234 at AA with only a .310 OBP, at just barely 21. What’s the rush?
I agree with being high on Bennett. I agree with Todd at scratching my head over the low rankings of Stuart and Lord, both of whom have a good shot of getting MLB looks this summer.
And while I hope that Wallace turns out decent, I’d give you better odds at Morales making it as an MLB regular than I would Wallace. They completely sank Morales on this list.
KW
29 Jan 25 at 5:24 pm
Without beating a dead horse, I too am perplexed as to why Morales can have, seriously, one bad month in his short career and plummet, while Hassell can have three consecutive bad seasons and still hover around the top 10 (hell, Hassell is even older than Morales, albeit 2 months).
I must admit though, the Brayan Romero pick is just so stupid it made me laugh. Like I couldn’t pick a less exceptional member of the Nats farm system if I tried. Romero missed all of 2023 to injury, after a wildly unexceptional 2022, where at age 20 was old for the age at both DSL and FCL. So when 2024 came around, he was way too old for the FCL, and to little surprise fared solidly there. Got promoted to Fredericksburg, and got hit hard, and missed absolutely no bats (13 K in 29 IP). BA have to be trolling with this pick. There is literally no way to justify picking him, especially when they’ve left off a whole stable of MLB ready relievers (Reifert, Ribalta, technically Ogasawara, Choi, Grissom, Sinclair) and interesting but untested ’24 draft picks (Petersen, Garcia, Kent, Diaz, Jones, etc.)
Will
29 Jan 25 at 6:51 pm
It feels like this list is such a terrible effort than it has provoked more than the usual amount of agreement around here. (And it makes P1500’s list look positively brilliant.)
To join the chorus, Morales is the biggest miss for me. I have him at 6th on my list below King and above Cavalli and Clemmey. You want to drop him down a bit, maybe, but 22nd? There is just no way his year supports such a precipitous fall.
And I don’t even want to talk about Cranz or B Romero. Totally unserious. Though, maybe now Rizzo can get some traction including them as additional pieces in a trade.
My problem, though, with bullshit like this is: how are we supposed to believe them about whether House will if his swing decisions or whether Clemmey will develop control? If they – or their sources – really think Cranz is a better prospect than Stuart, for example, I don’t see how we can defer to any of their judgements.
SMS
29 Jan 25 at 10:18 pm
I guess the argument is that no one after #15 is actually a “prospect”. So arguing over whether Romero deserves to be on the list vs. most of the other guys in the 20s, when all of them are incredibly unlikely to ever play in the majors, much less post above replacement level numbers there, is pretty futile.
However, even if you take a narrower view of prospects, then just say the above, and limit yourself to a top 15 list.
But it also doesn’t explain how they can justify Millas where he is vs. Bazzell, for example. If I told you Bazzell would go on to play above average defense and post a batting line of .259/.330/.365, I expect you’d be thrilled. Well, that’s exactly what Millas is presently doing, and yet the potential of Bazzell or Lomavita in 2-5 years to do exactly what Millas is doing today is somehow more valuable?
Since I’m talking about Millas, I don’t care if he’s 27. A prospect’s job is to contribute to the major league team. Millas has already produced more value than all but a handful of Nationals farmhands in the past 10-15 years. Give me more of that over the failed potential of young guys like Green, Vaquero, Nunez or Hassell.
Will
30 Jan 25 at 4:32 am
@will. So, a follow-up comment on why I said what I said about Millas and age. At 27 … you are what you are. There’s no more extending the ceiling. Consider two of our AA starters Shuman and Solesky. Both had decent numbers this year in Harrisburg. Solesky even went to the AFL and we talked about protecting him in Rule 5. But… they’re both 27, drafted in 2019, and will be 6-year MLFAs this year. I think we’ve already seen what their ceilings are. Just as we ahve with Millas.
I know there’s people who think Millas should be the MLB backup not Adams. But … if the team really thought that was likely, they had plenty of opportunities to do so. He was admirable at the plate in 33 games in 2023 … didn’t make the team. He held his own when Adams got demoted in 2024 …yet the team renewed Adams’ arb-eligible contract. So … i dunno. I just don’t think he’s a “prospect” anymore. I have him just outside the top 30, along with relievers and backup middle infielder types as a placeholder, but save the top 30 spots for players who might contribute more than half a WAR going forward.
Todd Boss
30 Jan 25 at 9:42 am
Millas’ value as a prospect has nothing to do with Rizzo and Martinez’s use (or mostly lack thereof) of him. He has no control the club’s poor investment in Ruiz and subsequent inability to understand the concept of a sunk cost and can’t be punished for that.
But the facts are that in his limited MLB playing time, Millas has posted a 2.6 WAR/500PA pace. In AAA in 2024, he put up a 125 wRC+. Millas’ .207 ISO in 2024 was .026 higher than any other prospect in the list above (Crews), and he routinely posts a walk rate above 10%. And, heck, he even has some wheels on him to boot, stealing 14 bases last year! This is backed up by scouting reports, which add he has a plus glove at catcher (in addition to the positives about his discipline and solid power).
So who cares about his projectability or his ceiling, when everything he’s doing shows that he’s – right now – a remarkably useful player. Our catchers (excluding Millas) have been worth a combined -0.7 WAR in 1200 PA over the past two seasons. Millas has been worth 0.5 in 95 PA. There’s no “might” contribute half a WAR. He’s already done it. That’s very good, and he will likely improve the team more than anyone on this list not named Dylan in the next year or two.
Will
30 Jan 25 at 10:48 am
@will: I dunno what to tell you. You can either believe that:
a) the team is purposely wasting a MLB quality catcher in AAA and not even trading him to get something they CAN use due to incompetence or in refusal to address Ruiz’ contract, or
b) believe Millas is not even better than Adams and thus is and always will be nothing more than a AAA catcher depth piece, and the team’s management knows this and is acting accordingly.
Todd Boss
30 Jan 25 at 12:03 pm
I think how much deference we should give the team is an important and complicated question. I hear Todd’s point about inferring that the team doesn’t value Millas very highly – but you could structure a very similar argument to support high valuations for 16 year olds with a $3M bonuses. Or even take a case like Henry – the team still thinks he’s worth a roster spot, and if we consider what that implies about his prognosis and defer to the team’s judgment recognizing that they know way more than we do, shouldn’t he still be ranked in the top 15 or 20?
There’s another similar question about how much to trust the public scouts and evaluators. I mean, I watch enough baseball that I think I have a pretty solid eye test, at least at the major league level, but I am definitely not a scout. I will never have an independent opinion about who is going to put on muscle, whose swing mechanics will allow adjustments, or who will improve command with experience. What I do sometimes have independent analyses of is stats and results, and as data has gotten better and better, more and more questions are at least partly answerable for me.
On Millas specifically, my favored inference about this offseason is that the team probably thinks Millas is better than Adams but not good enough to challenge or replace Ruiz. And they were (incorrectly, in my opinion) worried that, if they DFA’d Adams, he’d get claimed, leaving Lindsey or Romero or someone else completely unacceptable as C3 depth in case of injury.
SMS
30 Jan 25 at 12:28 pm
Todd, you’ve covered the Nats long enough to know that they can make mistakes. But I won’t belabor the point. Though I may come back to gloat when Millas has a quietly good season (and please call me out if he doesn’t)
But the prospect lists are coming hard and fast these days! ESPN/McDaniel just posted theirs https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/43549082/top-100-mlb-prospects-2025-kiley-mcdaniel-roki-sasaki-roman-anthony
6. Crews
47. House (bucking all other trends)
53. Susana (also moderately surprising to see him ahead of Sykora)
78. Sykora
And a bonus:
137. King
152. Clemmey
175. Cavalli
Will
30 Jan 25 at 2:48 pm
Some interesting things from McDaniel:
— I don’t understand his Starling Marte comp for Crews. Crews seems likely to at least be in the 20-25 HR range, which Marte only reached twice, mid-career. Marte in his prime was fairly consistent around 30 doubles, and I think/hope Crews can better that too. McDaniel puts Crews’s floor lower than Law did, at 2.5 to 3.5 WAR. If Crews does end up in CF and plays it in an above-average way, that seems low. I mean, Jacob Young posted 2.8 bWAR due heavily to CF defense.
— Even though McDaniel has House higher than most, he’s not exactly bullish on a high ceiling for him: “He projects to have fringe-average on-base percentages and average-to-above in-game power, though House adds more value by being an above-average defender at third base and offering some value as a baserunner. That projection isn’t quite as lofty as predraft expectations given his raw tools, but he’s tracking like a solid every-day player.”
— “Susana should pitch in Double-A next season and will turn 21 in March; he would be the first pick in the 2025 MLB draft if he were doing this in college rather than in pro ball.” Hadn’t thought of it that way, but it’s pretty darn true.
— On Sykora: “I was bearish at draft time as I thought his velo had maxed out and he lacked the kind of starter traits needed to justify that kind of bonus. So far, I’ve been wrong.” He still says “while his velo/shapes on paper are just OK, he looks like a midrotation starter to the eye with outcomes also along those lines.”
KW
30 Jan 25 at 7:27 pm
That line about Susana going 1-1 is funny. Kiley may be the high man on Susana but he still ranks about 10 2024 draftees higher.
SMS
30 Jan 25 at 8:30 pm
What is a 2.5 to 3.5 WAR player (McDaniel) or 4 to 5 WAR (Law) in CF, if Crews sticks in center? Well, Nimmo has only stayed healthy for four seasons and has produced bWAR in them of 5.1, 4.6, 3.9, and 2.2. Apparently that’s worth 8/$162M in today’s market.
It should be noted that only three CFs topped 4.0 fWAR in 2024: Judge (11.3), Jarren Duran (6.7), and Merrill (5.3). Jacob Young was at 2.6 with only 85 wRC+. Young was #11 among qualified CFs in fWAR, due heavily to defense.
Among qualified RFs, Soto (8.1) was the only one over 4.4, and only seven guys ranked above 2.2.
The bar for Crews to be better than average is pretty attainable, even early in his career.
KW
30 Jan 25 at 9:24 pm
There are things that the Nats do that I don’t understand. But then I recall former Senators player Rocky Bridges’ quote saying that one of the three things that the average man thinks that he can do better than everyone else is to manage a baseball team. I suspect that includes running a baseball team, too.
John C.
30 Jan 25 at 11:04 pm
On McDaniel’s view on House, I think he’s rightly pointing out something that others are overlooking/underrating: House isn’t a bat-only prospect. Everyone keeps talking about how House’s defense is surprisingly good, and coupled with solid speed, his floor is decently high. Yes, the plate approach is very worrying. But we kind of saw House address this already in 2024. In 2023, he was displaying the exact same worrying traits 4.7 BB% vs 28.4 K% after his promotion to AA. He returned there to start 2024, and proceeded to almost double his BB% (7.8%) and cut his Ks (24.5%). And the exact same story the year before in Fredericksburg
2022 vs 2023
BB% 5.9% -> 10.1%
K% 29.1% -> 21.5%
If House had consistently posted 3-4 BB% across all levels over the past few seasons, I’d be more worried. But it looks like he focuses more on contact before then working out the discipline. It’s also why these wild fluctuations year to year by prospect watchers are really stupid.
But even so, if there wasn’t this evidence of House adapting, and he’s a 3 BB%/30 K% kind of player now and indefinitely, a 3B with a slash of something like .240/.280/.400 with above average defense and speed, is still very valuable. This is basically Josh Jung.
Will
31 Jan 25 at 4:27 am
House is of an age (doesn’t turn 22 until June) where massive improvement is still possible, sometimes just in the course of one offseason. If you don’t believe me, look at Wood’s MiLB numbers from ’23 to ’24. He cut the Ks almost in half and significantly improved the walk rate.
So right now, I’m not concerned about House. As Will noted, his defense is a solid carrying tool, and I seem to believe in his power ceiling more than most. There aren’t a lot of guys in the minors who you can point to and seriously say, “He could be a 40-homer guy.” House is one of the few.
Much as with the OF bar I posted for Crews, the one at 3B is pretty low right now as well. Only two guys had fWAR above 4.1, but then there were nine players between 4.1 and 3.1. So it’s not a stretch to say that House could be an above-average 3B if he’s “only” 3.5 to 4.0 WAR. Only two of them topped 30 homers.
In looking at the list of current MLB 3Bs, the one who makes me think of perhaps the upside of how House is profiling right now is Eugenio Suárez. He had one massive season (49 HRs) and has topped 30 four other times, but he’s also had some real clunkers where his plate discipline has deserted him. Heck, he hit 31 homers one year when he hit .198 and K’d 29.8% of the time. Through it all, he has been a plus defender.
Down a few rungs, Will’s comp of Josh Jung is a good one. It should be noted that between being a college draftee and the Covid season, Jung didn’t become an MLB regular until age 25. It’s quite possible that House needs another year or two in the minors to hone his plate discipline.
KW
31 Jan 25 at 6:47 pm
Law ranks the Nats’ system 17th:
“The Nats’ talent is on the upswing, but they promote guys so quickly that they may end up in the playoffs before they have a top-10 system. Sixty percent of the Juan Soto trade is in the majors now, and 20 percent of it might not turn into anything (the other player they received was Luke Voit, who played in the Mexican League last year). They had a great draft last year to inject a lot of highly polished college players into the system, backed up with some upside plays. Their international pipeline has dried up recently post-Soto, though; they’ve spent big on some top IFAs, but none have panned out since he did.”
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6094581/2025/01/30/mlb-farm-system-rankings-2025/
KW
31 Jan 25 at 9:18 pm
House and Crews: I hope we don’t fall into prospect fatigue. I’m amazed at the nit picking of a guy like House, who’s still in AAA at age 21. Had he gone to college, he’d be sitting on someone’s XST roster with zero pro games right now.
System ranks: I have Laws and a couple others that are trickling in… per normal we’re middle of the road. Law has a couple of real outliers as compared to others, but his top to bottom rank of systems is pretty solid.
Todd Boss
3 Feb 25 at 11:24 am
It’s not prospect fatigue to drop House off of a top 100 list after he was merely OK (110 wRC+) at AA last year and flopped at AAA (66 wRC+, 28.8% K rate, 3% BB rate). No one is giving up on him as a prospect, but he’s not knocking on the door.
John C.
3 Feb 25 at 3:55 pm