Nationals Arm Race

You read that headline correctly. Believe it or not, I have more than 100 names on my list for this system, and its time to reveal them.

There’s only about 165 players even allowed to be on minor league domestic rosters, then add in another 30-35 players in the DSL, so naming 100 players is a sizeable chunk of all the players on our minor league payroll. However, I got to 100 players by virtue of including basically every prospect in our system who has EVER appeared on a single other pundit’s ranking, to go along with a few pet prospects of my own from recent drafts and IFA classes.

Yes, it is a fool’s errand to rank higher than 40. Anything above 50-60 is patently ridiculous. Naming a player the 95th prospect in a system of 165 is crazy. But, here we are.

By the way, if you want to see my master Prospect rankings with this and every other prospect shop all in one place, here it is. There’s now 260 collected rankings of our prospects dating to Dec 2005.

I’ll chunk these up into groupings of 10 for readability, and since honestly above the 50-60 range there’s not a whole lot between the guy ranked 50th and 90th. Note: I did this ranking and writeup before the two Spring Breakout games (Nats/Astros box and Nats/Mets box) which were a useful tool to do prospect evaluation since it’s quite telling who the team chose to bring and play versus who they did not. I’ll sprinkle in comments throughout and how I would have adjusted some of these ranks with this late-breaking news.

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My prospect ranking guidelines, which you’ll see here:

• I like floor versus ceiling. I’ll have a guy like, say, Andrew Alvarez ranked higher than some 17yr old in the DSL with a huge bonus because, well, Alvarez is in AAA right now while that 17yr old may have a $3M bonus but we’re talking 5 years and a thousand things that could go wrong with the guy before he’s at the same place Alvarez is right now.
• I don’t think relievers are worthy of being top-30 prospects. I think its ridiculous to have someone like Brzycky ranked in the 20s when his ceiling seems to be half a war as the 5th guy out of the MLB bullpen, while the team could convert Rutledge to a closer tomorrow and probably get more value. (Edit: we’ve now learned that, finally, Rutledge IS going to the bullpen, so this throw-away comment now seems prophetic).
• Same thing to a lesser extent with guys who have a ceiling of backup middle-infielder, 1B/DH/Bench bat, or 2nd catcher. They’re just not going to be in my top 30, but as we’ll see my 31-40 is littered with them. It’s not that they’re not important … its just that (like relievers) they’re failed starters who are the definition of replacement players.
• 2024 draft picks and 2025 IFA signings have yet to play for the most part, so I tend to rank them lower than star-glazed prospect watchers elsewhere.
• If someone is in the DSL … I struggle to give them a ranking inside the top 30 unless they cleaned up there. I really want to see players with domestic stats before really considering them for the top 30.

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Here we go.

1 Dylan Crews OF (CF)
2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter)
3 Brady House SS/3B
4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter)
5 Seaver King SS
6 Yohandy Morales 3B
7 Cayden Wallace 3B
8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter)
9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter)
10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF)

1-10 comments:

• Nothing shocking about 1-5, except maybe the order of 2-3-4.
• I’m not ready to drop House below Susana. A reminder: if House had gone to college, he’d be a 21-yr old with zero pro stats, not in MLB camp. Also, at the Spring Breakout game Susana looked god-awful (yanked in the 1st on pitch count, 5 walks, just 1 K, lit up by the Astros hitters. SSS but telling of the issues he had early on).
• I have kept Morales at #6, preferring to believe he’s still that high and doesn’t deserve to get dropped a dozen slots like most other pundits who layered him while also admitting he had a frigging hand injury mid 2024. However: Three whiffs in the breakout game; not impressive.
• I’m higher on Wallace than many, and I think the team is going to have some serious issues finding PT for both him and Wallace this season (presuming Wallace gets bumped to AAA). However, if the Breakout game is any indicator, we know the plan: Wallace played 2B. He’s shorter and stockier than House and handled the position well enough. He hit 3rd, right behind House, something we may see in AAA soon enough.
• I may be too high on Cavalli, but I also havn’t forgotten that in mid 2022 he was our #1 prospect and one of the best arms in the minors. Yes, I am concerned he’s taken 18 months to get back. Maybe he should be lower. 2025 is the year he either blows up in the majors or becomes the next Cole Henry.
• I’m not quite as high on Clemmey; like him, want to see him do more above low-A. He did get the start in the second breakout game and looked solid.
• Hassell stays in my top #10: I had him slightly lower before his great spring. I wonder if the Nats take a look at Wood/Young/Crews mid-season and look to package Hassell and another blocked player like a Wallace or Made for a major starting pitcher, because I’m finding it harder and harder to think those two will ever get reps for this team. Notably, Hassell was not at the Breakout game, probably b/c he’s making such an impression in MLB camp.

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11 Caleb Lomavita C
12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF
13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter)
14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter)
15 Daylen Lile OF (CF)
16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B
17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter)
18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter)
19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS
20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner)

11-20 Comments:

• I’m a little lower on Dickerson than others. That’s because I want to see prep kids hit with wood before naming them the next coming of Mike Trout. He got an AB and a whiff in the Breakout game, going against a polished AAA reliever with stuff. Would love to see him make the Low-A team out of spring, but something tells me its XST until June.
• I’m probably a bit higher on both Lara and Stuart than others; Floor impresses me more than ceiling, though Lara’s splits (as pointed out by Law) are shocking.
• Lile at 15: we’ve talked about him a lot. TL/DR: I think he’s an undersized 4th outfielder completely blocked by better prospects in our system who will never play for us and should get traded to a team that might give him a chance. I will say this: he looked really solid at the Breakout game, leading off, looking like a real pro at the plate.
• I have Lord higher than anyone; his 2024 season impressed the hell out of me, and It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he gets added to the 40-man and called up in 2025. If that’s not a top-20 prospect, then I dunno what is. He was on the breakout roster but didn’t throw, as they had really odd pitching choices (choosing to throw Alvarez and Shuman 3-innings each instead of distributing the workload and giving guys like Lord and others more PT).
• Pinckney at 20: I’m not sure I see it, but others do; the team has invited him to spring training two years in a row now. He’s a lanky CF-capable guy who didn’t exactly light it up in AA or AAA last year, and when i’ve seen him I see a tall guy with a slow, loopy bat. He’s got the same problem as Lile: better guys already playing in the majors. On our depth chart, he’s behind our three young MLB starters, behind Hassell, behind Call, probably behind the recently outrighted Garrett, and if it came to it you’d have to think he’s behind Lile as well. Not sure what the future is here. I should probably have him in the mid 25s, but I wanted to keep him ahead of the three outfielders at the top of the next section for obvious reasons. All that said … he impressed in the Breakout game, played CF ahead of a slew of our OF prospects and whacked a homer. So I dunno.
• Bazzell caught the back part of the first spring breakout game … and he looks like a Catcher. I know he was listed as a C/3B, but he’s gonna be behind the dish. Is it notable that Keith Law actually ranked him HIGHER than Lomavita in his list? We’ll soon see: I suspect they’ll be trading off days in Low-A to start the season.

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21 Cristian Vaquero OF (CF)
22 Victor Hurtado OF
23 Elijah Green OF (CF)
24 Rafael Ramirez Jr. SS
25 Kevin Made SS
26 Jackson Kent LHP (Starter)
27 Armando Cruz SS
28 Andrew Alvarez LHP (Starter)
29 Brayan Cortesia SS
30 Andres Chaparro 1B/DH

21-30 comments:

• We should call this the “Wasted Bonus Money” portion of the rankings. Vaquerio (4.9M), Hurtado ($2.8M), Green ($6.5M) and Cruz ($3.9M) comprise basically the entirety of three IFA draft classes and our 6th overall pick two years ago, and none of them have really done anything except fall in these rankings and scuffle in the low minors. These guys all were “worth” this money at one point, at least according to our talent evaluators, and I suppose all of them can turn the corner and rebound, hence being in the 21-30 range.
• That said, Green looked awfully good in the Breakout game: laced a double, crushed a homer to Left center. Of course true to his form, four of his five ABs were three-true-outcomes: he also had a walk and two whiffs. The team has not given up on this guy, as evidenced by his start in this game, and he’s not gonna get cut with his much bonus money in him. Lets hope he makes some adjustments.
• Chaparro has exhausted his rookie eligibility by service time but not ABs (kinda like Nunez), so I ranked him at the edge of the top 30. He destroyed AAA pitching last year and probably is the leading bench bat in the majors. So what if he has no position? He seems like he can hit. He’ll quickly graduate and it won’t matter, but a guy who’s going to make the MLB roster with rookie eligibility really should be ranked somewhat highly. Maybe I should treat him with the same thought process of middle relievers and backup infielders, since he’s 1B/DH limited. In a couple weeks it won’t matter anyway.
• I consider both Ramirez Jr. and Made the same guy: all glove-no hit SS prospects who some guys love, but I wish they hit better than .220 (Made) or .183 (Ramirez). For now, they project at short, but they may plummet down the prospect list if they continue to not hit. Notably, neither was at the Prospects game as King started both games.
• Alvarez at #28; I have him by far higher than anyone else. Getting to AAA matters. And the Nats agree with me, giving him 3 innings at the Breakout game where he looked pretty solid honestly. He had cleaner mechanics than I remember, reminding me of Mike Hampton; upright, 3/4 delivery, simple motion.
• $1.9M buys you a top-30 spot if you are Cortesia. I hate ranking 16yr old IFA signings like this but he’s pretty highly regarded. Hopefully he’s not in the 50s at this time next year (see further down for failed IFA signings)

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31 Darren Baker 2B
32 Zach Brzykcy RHP (Reliever)
33 Evan Reifert RHP (Reliever)
34 Jackson Rutledge RHP (now a Reliver)
35 Daniel Hernandez C
36 Drew Millas C
37 Sammy Peterson OF (CF)
38 Orlando Ribalta RHP (Reliever)
39 Marquis Grissom RHP (Reliever)
40 Cole Henry RHP (Reliever)

31-40 comments:

• Here’s where I’m dumping all the relievers that others may have in the 20s. Brzycky, Reifert, Ribalta, and Grissom primarily, plus now Rutledge.
• If I down-grade relievers, I probably should down grade middle-infielder backup ceiling players like Baker, and backup catchers like Millas, hence their placement in this range.
• Reifert (our rule-5 pickup) may not be long for the team with his awful spring training, and with the rise of the likes of Ribalta and Henry this spring it makes no sense to saddle the bullpen with an arm who can’t get anyone out. But, he belongs in this area.
• Speaking of Henry; he was 10 slots lower on my board before it became known he was moving to the bullpen this spring and started getting guys out. He’s already been optioned to AAA, which is fine, and I hope to see him pitching the 8th or 9th for Rochester to start the season.
• Speaking of guys who should have converted to relief … Rutledge comes in at #34 because, frankly, I think he needs to move to the bullpen. And, it may happen soon; Yeah, I wrote that before Zuckerman reported that he’s going to the Pen.
• AAA rotation, now that Rutledge and Henry are out of the picture, is still looking stuffed. The glut of starters at the MLB level likely sends both Herz and Ogasawara to AAA, along with Cavalli. You already have guys that were in the AAA rotation like Lord, Stuart, and Alvarez who shouldn’t make way. You also have newly added 40-man Lara, who should be in AAA but probably starts in AA. AND you have a couple of new acquisitions that probably should be in that rotation too (Plinkington and Choi). That’s way, way too many starters and something is going to give. I’m guessing Choi goes back to AA (he was a minor league rule-5 pick and was in AA last year). So, best guess on AAA rotation: Herz, Ogasawara, Cavalli, Lord, Alvarez, with Stuart, Lara, Choi back to AA and Plinkington in long-relief/utility man area.
• Grissom was an interesting look at the prospects game: works fast, his best pitch is a changeup, and he pitched a clean inning. But, did he look like a guy who could succeed in a MLB pen? I don’t think so.
• We do have a couple of guys in this section who might push forward soon: Hernandez was one of our big-money 2025 IFA signings and I only put him this high b/c BA loves him. Peterson may have been an 8th rounder, but MLBPipeline has him as our #30 prospect. So, I stuck both in this section to acknowledge that the pros like them and we’ll see how they play this year.

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41 Robert Cranz RHP (Reliever->Starter?)
42 Randal Diaz SS/3B
43 Jose Feliz RHP (Starter)
44 Dashyll Tejeda OF (CF)
45 Brayan Romero RHP (Starter)
46 Phillips Glasser SS
47 Tyler Schoff RHP (Reliever)
48 Carlos Tavares OF
49 Manuel Cabrera SS
50 Jose Atencio RHP (Starter)

41-50 comments:

• I’ll be honest: the sole reason I have Cranz and Diaz here was because Keith Law put both of the 2024 draftees in his top 20. Cranz was a 7th rounder reliever in college who apparently has four pitches and will be a starter this year. BA also put him in at #24 for the system, so Law isn’t crazy here. It was telling that Diaz was at the Prospects games though, and he may be trending higher.
• This range seems to be the “halfway promising DSL player” section. That includes Feliz, Tejeda, Tavares, and Cabrera.
• Feliz was the best DSL starter last year and Tejeda was the best hitter (either him or Angel Felix, ranked #19). After such an awful crop of 2023 players, i’m hopeful these two will move stateside soon.
• Romero is only here b/c BA put him as #30. I lampooned that pick in my review of their top 30 list; maybe I’m wrong.
• I like Atencio, and probably should have him a bit higher after his 2024. He graduated from Low-A then threw 19 High-A starts at a 3.41 clip. He’s not higher b/c he’s not a big K/9 guy.
• Glasser may be completely undeserving of a mid 40s spot, but he did start the second breakout game and went 2-2 with a walk.

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51 Nick Peoples OF
52 Hyun-Il Choi RHP (Starter)
53 Chase Solesky RHP (Starter)
54 Kyle Luckham RHP (Starter)
55 Angel Roman LHP (Starter)
56 Jack Sinclair RHP (Reliever)
57 Everett Cooper SS
58 T.J. White OF (Corner)
59 Elian Soto OF/SS
60 Marcus Brown SS/2B

51-60 comments:

• This seems to be where I’m sticking “Starters who have had some success and who could still succeed for this team.” That includes Choi, Solesky, and Luckham, all of whom have gotten to the AA level and succeeded there. In fact, i thought Soleksy might actually get protected in Rule-5, having been sent to the AFL last fall.
• Peoples, Cooper, White, and Brown all fall into the same category: they were all 2021-22 draft picks who were at one point fringe top 30 guys who have struggled as they’ve moved up the chain. TJ White was as high as #19 on a list last year and is completely off every major list this year. Interestingly, He was the DH/cleanup hitter in the second breakout game, meaning he’s still on the prospect radar.
• Soto is, of course, younger brother of Juan. He’s nowhere close to where his brother was at this stage of his career of course: Juan debuted in the majors at 19 while Elian is hitting .175 in the FCL at 19. Is he a prospect? He’s sticking in this range on name alone.
• Sinclair got an appearance at the Prospects game, bailing out Susana in the first. He has big time movement on his fastball, which had great arm-side ride despite not being that high in velocity. He seems like the kind of guy who can sit in a bullpen for a while getting outs.

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61 Luke Young RHP (Starter)
62 Rony Bello INF
63 Yoel Tejada Jr.  RHP (Reliever)
64 Brenner Cox OF (CF)
65 Lucas Knowles LHP (Reliever)
66 Daison Acosta RHP (reliever)
67 Hector Liriano OF
68 Dustin Saenz LHP (Starter)
69 Sir Jamison Jones CA
70 Mark Davis RHP (Starter)

61-70 comments:

• A lot of these guys are here b/c they were on the fringes of the Prospects1500 top 50 list, so I gave them some credit in the 60-70 range.
• Bello is a 2025 IFA bonus ranking, something I hate to do but whatever, its #62.
• I like Saenz and Knowles; they’ve both had really solid seasons for the team in the last couple of years. But, both may have also hit ceilings.
• Sir Jamison Jones: he’s an interesting one; decent scouting report, still shocked he signed. Will he turn into Cox (who I have at #64 here) or will he stand out? He was a defensive C sub in the second breakout game.
• Daison Acosta might very well make the MLB this year, with a live arm and a 2025 NRI. Maybe he should be higher, like in the 30-40 “decent relievers” section.
• Tejada pitched the last two innings of the second breakout game, probably a telling appearance. He’s still on the XST roster.

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71 Roismar Quintana 1B/OF
72 Seth Shuman RHP (Starter)
73 Jeremy De La Rosa OF (Corner)
74 Jermaine Maricuto 1B/C
75 Leuris Portorreal RHP (Starter)
76 Gavin Dugas 2B
77 Mikey Tepper RHP (Starter)
78 Michael Cuevas RHP (Starter)
79 Leodarlyn Colon RHP (Starter)
80 Brandon Pimentel 1B

71-80 range:

• Several guys in this section who used to be far higher up the list; Quintana, Shuman, and De La Rosa.
• I’ve always liked Shuman: he missed 2020 with Covid and 2023 with injury, now is 27 and put up decent stats in AA .. but he’s too old. I don’t entirely understand why the team didn’t promote him more aggressively last year. Then, he pops up in the Breakout game and threw the last three innings cleanly. So, maybe he should be higher.
• Maricuto and Portorreal were basically the best of the 2023 IFA class and a couple of the few that graduated to Florida last year.
• Pimentel: one shop randomly had him in their top 50 so I threw him in here.
• I’ve always thought Dugas had the potential to be a real baller, despite being a senior sign.
• Tepper is probably ranked here b/c he’s got local ties (he went to Liberty), but his numbers last year weren’t half bad.

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81 Jared McKenzie OF (CF)
82 Joe Narango 1B
83 Jorgelys Mota SS
84 Miguel Gomez RHP (Reliever)
85 Liam Sullivan LHP (Starter)
86 Yoander Rivero SS
87 Bryan Sanchez RHP (Starter)
88 Viandel Pena SS
89 Andy Acevedo OF
90 Elijah Nunez OF (Corner)

81-90 commentary

• A hodge podge of players here.
• Narango was a MLFA who can still hit.
• Acevedo was a big-bonus 2023 IFA who was ranked as high as #19 by Fangraphs two years ago (Longenhagen really likes Ceiling) but who havn’t done much.
• Sullivan made two starts and hit the DL, missing the whole season in Low-A but I think he could be something as long as it wasn’t TJ that costs him all of 2025.

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91 Matt Suggs C
92 Max Romero Jr. C
93 Pablo Aldonis LHP (Starter)
94 Todd Peterson RHP (Reliever)
95 Carlos Batista OF
96 Johnathan Thomas OF (CF)
97 Gabriel Agostini LHP (Reliever)
98 Branden Boissiere OF (Corner)
99 Juan Garcia SS
100 Juan Obispo OF
101 Nathan Ochoa Leyva OF (Corner)
102 Holden Powell RHP (Reliever)
103 Jackson Cluff SS
104 J.T. Arruda SS

91-104 commentary

• This range gets players who had like a season of high-hopes, and now have had several seasons of lack of production that has put their ceiling as an org guy.
• Boissiere is one of those 1B/corner OF who has never really hit but who sticks around. He was a 3rd rounder and got a bit of a bonus, which may explain it.
• Holden Powell: case study why you shouldn’t draft guys who are already relievers in college.
• Cluff, Arruda, Thomas: all guys who have worked their way up the org but who now are waiting out the 6year MLFA string. Thomas appeared in the second breakout game.
• So, I may have Romero way too low here. He was the starting catcher at the first Breakout game, catching 6 innings while Bazzell got the last few. Maybe he’s a better prospect than I gave him credit for. I’ll probably move him into the 40-50 range just based on principle after this publishes.

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Speaking of the first Breakout game, here’s the ranks for the starters, subs, and arms:

Game 1:

• Lile: 15
• House: 3
• Wallace: 7
• Morales: 6
• Pinckney: 20
• King: 5
• Green: 23
• Romero: 92
• Cox: 66

Subs

• Mota: 84
• Cruz: 27
• Tavares: 48
• Peterson: 37
• Dickerson: 12
• Bazzell: 16

Arms

• Susana: 4
• Sinclair: 56
• Grissom: 39
• Alvarez: 28
• Shuman: 72

Top 20 Prospects not in either Breakout game: Crews (1), Sykora (2), Cavalli (8), Hassell (10), Lara (13), Stuart (14), Bennett (17), Lord (18), Feliz (19).

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Phew. 104 players. did I miss anyone? Did I accidentally list someone here that we released (I did that last year I think). I did a quick glance at our Draft boards and tried to find the highest drafted non-senior sign players from the last few draft classes not mentioned in the top 104:

• 2024: 11th rounder Merritt Beeker; low-A middle reliever
• 2023: 9th rounder Thomas Shultz, high-a closer and who pitched in the breakout game.
• 2023: 12th rounder Travis Sthele: low-A starter
• 2022: 7th rounder Riley Cornelio: this is a surprise b/c he’s been a rotation starter since he got here.
• 2022: 8th rounder Chance Huff: middle reliever in High-A.
• 2021: 14th rounder Erik Tolman, injured Low-A starter

I’m also completely missing Carlos Romero, who was in the 2nd breakout game and who is a reliever in AAA. I checked in my XLS and when he hit 6yr MLFA I turned him inactive. Clearly he’s been retained/resigned and so I’ll probably throw him in the 50s somewhere going forward.