You read that headline correctly. Believe it or not, I have more than 100 names on my list for this system, and its time to reveal them.
There’s only about 165 players even allowed to be on minor league domestic rosters, then add in another 30-35 players in the DSL, so naming 100 players is a sizeable chunk of all the players on our minor league payroll. However, I got to 100 players by virtue of including basically every prospect in our system who has EVER appeared on a single other pundit’s ranking, to go along with a few pet prospects of my own from recent drafts and IFA classes.
Yes, it is a fool’s errand to rank higher than 40. Anything above 50-60 is patently ridiculous. Naming a player the 95th prospect in a system of 165 is crazy. But, here we are.
By the way, if you want to see my master Prospect rankings with this and every other prospect shop all in one place, here it is. There’s now 260 collected rankings of our prospects dating to Dec 2005.
I’ll chunk these up into groupings of 10 for readability, and since honestly above the 50-60 range there’s not a whole lot between the guy ranked 50th and 90th. Note: I did this ranking and writeup before the two Spring Breakout games (Nats/Astros box and Nats/Mets box) which were a useful tool to do prospect evaluation since it’s quite telling who the team chose to bring and play versus who they did not. I’ll sprinkle in comments throughout and how I would have adjusted some of these ranks with this late-breaking news.
My prospect ranking guidelines, which you’ll see here:
- I like floor versus ceiling. I’ll have a guy like, say, Andrew Alvarez ranked higher than some 17yr old in the DSL with a huge bonus because, well, Alvarez is in AAA right now while that 17yr old may have a $3M bonus but we’re talking 5 years and a thousand things that could go wrong with the guy before he’s at the same place Alvarez is right now.
- I don’t think relievers are worthy of being top-30 prospects. I think its ridiculous to have someone like Brzycky ranked in the 20s when his ceiling seems to be half a war as the 5th guy out of the MLB bullpen, while the team could convert Rutledge to a closer tomorrow and probably get more value. (Edit: we’ve now learned that, finally, Rutledge IS going to the bullpen, so this throw-away comment now seems prophetic).
- Same thing to a lesser extent with guys who have a ceiling of backup middle-infielder, 1B/DH/Bench bat, or 2nd catcher. They’re just not going to be in my top 30, but as we’ll see my 31-40 is littered with them. It’s not that they’re not important … its just that (like relievers) they’re failed starters who are the definition of replacement players.
- 2024 draft picks and 2025 IFA signings have yet to play for the most part, so I tend to rank them lower than star-glazed prospect watchers elsewhere.
- If someone is in the DSL … I struggle to give them a ranking inside the top 30 unless they cleaned up there. I really want to see players with domestic stats before really considering them for the top 30.
Here we go.
1 Dylan Crews OF (CF)
2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter)
3 Brady House SS/3B
4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter)
5 Seaver King SS
6 Yohandy Morales 3B
7 Cayden Wallace 3B
8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter)
9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter)
10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF)
1-10 comments:
- Nothing shocking about 1-5, except maybe the order of 2-3-4.
- I’m not ready to drop House below Susana. A reminder: if House had gone to college, he’d be a 21-yr old with zero pro stats, not in MLB camp. Also, at the Spring Breakout game Susana looked god-awful (yanked in the 1st on pitch count, 5 walks, just 1 K, lit up by the Astros hitters. SSS but telling of the issues he had early on).
- I have kept Morales at #6, preferring to believe he’s still that high and doesn’t deserve to get dropped a dozen slots like most other pundits who layered him while also admitting he had a frigging hand injury mid 2024. However: Three whiffs in the breakout game; not impressive.
- I’m higher on Wallace than many, and I think the team is going to have some serious issues finding PT for both him and Wallace this season (presuming Wallace gets bumped to AAA). However, if the Breakout game is any indicator, we know the plan: Wallace played 2B. He’s shorter and stockier than House and handled the position well enough. He hit 3rd, right behind House, something we may see in AAA soon enough.
- I may be too high on Cavalli, but I also havn’t forgotten that in mid 2022 he was our #1 prospect and one of the best arms in the minors. Yes, I am concerned he’s taken 18 months to get back. Maybe he should be lower. 2025 is the year he either blows up in the majors or becomes the next Cole Henry.
- I’m not quite as high on Clemmey; like him, want to see him do more above low-A. He did get the start in the second breakout game and looked solid.
- Hassell stays in my top #10: I had him slightly lower before his great spring. I wonder if the Nats take a look at Wood/Young/Crews mid-season and look to package Hassell and another blocked player like a Wallace or Made for a major starting pitcher, because I’m finding it harder and harder to think those two will ever get reps for this team. Notably, Hassell was not at the Breakout game, probably b/c he’s making such an impression in MLB camp.
11 Caleb Lomavita C
12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF
13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter)
14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter)
15 Daylen Lile OF (CF)
16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B
17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter)
18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter)
19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS
20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner)
11-20 Comments:
- I’m a little lower on Dickerson than others. That’s because I want to see prep kids hit with wood before naming them the next coming of Mike Trout. He got an AB and a whiff in the Breakout game, going against a polished AAA reliever with stuff. Would love to see him make the Low-A team out of spring, but something tells me its XST until June.
- I’m probably a bit higher on both Lara and Stuart than others; Floor impresses me more than ceiling, though Lara’s splits (as pointed out by Law) are shocking.
- Lile at 15: we’ve talked about him a lot. TL/DR: I think he’s an undersized 4th outfielder completely blocked by better prospects in our system who will never play for us and should get traded to a team that might give him a chance. I will say this: he looked really solid at the Breakout game, leading off, looking like a real pro at the plate.
- I have Lord higher than anyone; his 2024 season impressed the hell out of me, and It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he gets added to the 40-man and called up in 2025. If that’s not a top-20 prospect, then I dunno what is. He was on the breakout roster but didn’t throw, as they had really odd pitching choices (choosing to throw Alvarez and Shuman 3-innings each instead of distributing the workload and giving guys like Lord and others more PT).
- Pinckney at 20: I’m not sure I see it, but others do; the team has invited him to spring training two years in a row now. He’s a lanky CF-capable guy who didn’t exactly light it up in AA or AAA last year, and when i’ve seen him I see a tall guy with a slow, loopy bat. He’s got the same problem as Lile: better guys already playing in the majors. On our depth chart, he’s behind our three young MLB starters, behind Hassell, behind Call, probably behind the recently outrighted Garrett, and if it came to it you’d have to think he’s behind Lile as well. Not sure what the future is here. I should probably have him in the mid 25s, but I wanted to keep him ahead of the three outfielders at the top of the next section for obvious reasons. All that said … he impressed in the Breakout game, played CF ahead of a slew of our OF prospects and whacked a homer. So I dunno.
- Bazzell caught the back part of the first spring breakout game … and he looks like a Catcher. I know he was listed as a C/3B, but he’s gonna be behind the dish. Is it notable that Keith Law actually ranked him HIGHER than Lomavita in his list? We’ll soon see: I suspect they’ll be trading off days in Low-A to start the season.
21 Cristian Vaquero OF (CF)
22 Victor Hurtado OF
23 Elijah Green OF (CF)
24 Rafael Ramirez Jr. SS
25 Kevin Made SS
26 Jackson Kent LHP (Starter)
27 Armando Cruz SS
28 Andrew Alvarez LHP (Starter)
29 Brayan Cortesia SS
30 Andres Chaparro 1B/DH
21-30 comments:
- We should call this the “Wasted Bonus Money” portion of the rankings. Vaquerio (4.9M), Hurtado ($2.8M), Green ($6.5M) and Cruz ($3.9M) comprise basically the entirety of three IFA draft classes and our 6th overall pick two years ago, and none of them have really done anything except fall in these rankings and scuffle in the low minors. These guys all were “worth” this money at one point, at least according to our talent evaluators, and I suppose all of them can turn the corner and rebound, hence being in the 21-30 range.
- That said, Green looked awfully good in the Breakout game: laced a double, crushed a homer to Left center. Of course true to his form, four of his five ABs were three-true-outcomes: he also had a walk and two whiffs. The team has not given up on this guy, as evidenced by his start in this game, and he’s not gonna get cut with his much bonus money in him. Lets hope he makes some adjustments.
- Chaparro has exhausted his rookie eligibility by service time but not ABs (kinda like Nunez), so I ranked him at the edge of the top 30. He destroyed AAA pitching last year and probably is the leading bench bat in the majors. So what if he has no position? He seems like he can hit. He’ll quickly graduate and it won’t matter, but a guy who’s going to make the MLB roster with rookie eligibility really should be ranked somewhat highly. Maybe I should treat him with the same thought process of middle relievers and backup infielders, since he’s 1B/DH limited. In a couple weeks it won’t matter anyway.
- I consider both Ramirez Jr. and Made the same guy: all glove-no hit SS prospects who some guys love, but I wish they hit better than .220 (Made) or .183 (Ramirez). For now, they project at short, but they may plummet down the prospect list if they continue to not hit. Notably, neither was at the Prospects game as King started both games.
- Alvarez at #28; I have him by far higher than anyone else. Getting to AAA matters. And the Nats agree with me, giving him 3 innings at the Breakout game where he looked pretty solid honestly. He had cleaner mechanics than I remember, reminding me of Mike Hampton; upright, 3/4 delivery, simple motion.
- $1.9M buys you a top-30 spot if you are Cortesia. I hate ranking 16yr old IFA signings like this but he’s pretty highly regarded. Hopefully he’s not in the 50s at this time next year (see further down for failed IFA signings)
31 Darren Baker 2B
32 Zach Brzykcy RHP (Reliever)
33 Evan Reifert RHP (Reliever)
34 Jackson Rutledge RHP (now a Reliver)
35 Daniel Hernandez C
36 Drew Millas C
37 Sammy Peterson OF (CF)
38 Orlando Ribalta RHP (Reliever)
39 Marquis Grissom RHP (Reliever)
40 Cole Henry RHP (Reliever)
31-40 comments:
- Here’s where I’m dumping all the relievers that others may have in the 20s. Brzycky, Reifert, Ribalta, and Grissom primarily, plus now Rutledge.
- If I down-grade relievers, I probably should down grade middle-infielder backup ceiling players like Baker, and backup catchers like Millas, hence their placement in this range.
- Reifert (our rule-5 pickup) may not be long for the team with his awful spring training, and with the rise of the likes of Ribalta and Henry this spring it makes no sense to saddle the bullpen with an arm who can’t get anyone out. But, he belongs in this area.
- Speaking of Henry; he was 10 slots lower on my board before it became known he was moving to the bullpen this spring and started getting guys out. He’s already been optioned to AAA, which is fine, and I hope to see him pitching the 8th or 9th for Rochester to start the season.
- Speaking of guys who should have converted to relief …
Rutledge comes in at #34 because, frankly, I think he needs to move to the bullpen. And, it may happen soon;Yeah, I wrote that before Zuckerman reported that he’s going to the Pen. - AAA rotation, now that Rutledge and Henry are out of the picture, is still looking stuffed. The glut of starters at the MLB level likely sends both Herz and Ogasawara to AAA, along with Cavalli. You already have guys that were in the AAA rotation like Lord, Stuart, and Alvarez who shouldn’t make way. You also have newly added 40-man Lara, who should be in AAA but probably starts in AA. AND you have a couple of new acquisitions that probably should be in that rotation too (Plinkington and Choi). That’s way, way too many starters and something is going to give. I’m guessing Choi goes back to AA (he was a minor league rule-5 pick and was in AA last year). So, best guess on AAA rotation: Herz, Ogasawara, Cavalli, Lord, Alvarez, with Stuart, Lara, Choi back to AA and Plinkington in long-relief/utility man area.
- Grissom was an interesting look at the prospects game: works fast, his best pitch is a changeup, and he pitched a clean inning. But, did he look like a guy who could succeed in a MLB pen? I don’t think so.
- We do have a couple of guys in this section who might push forward soon: Hernandez was one of our big-money 2025 IFA signings and I only put him this high b/c BA loves him. Peterson may have been an 8th rounder, but MLBPipeline has him as our #30 prospect. So, I stuck both in this section to acknowledge that the pros like them and we’ll see how they play this year.
41 Robert Cranz RHP (Reliever->Starter?)
42 Randal Diaz SS/3B
43 Jose Feliz RHP (Starter)
44 Dashyll Tejeda OF (CF)
45 Brayan Romero RHP (Starter)
46 Phillips Glasser SS
47 Tyler Schoff RHP (Reliever)
48 Carlos Tavares OF
49 Manuel Cabrera SS
50 Jose Atencio RHP (Starter)
41-50 comments:
- I’ll be honest: the sole reason I have Cranz and Diaz here was because Keith Law put both of the 2024 draftees in his top 20. Cranz was a 7th rounder reliever in college who apparently has four pitches and will be a starter this year. BA also put him in at #24 for the system, so Law isn’t crazy here. It was telling that Diaz was at the Prospects games though, and he may be trending higher.
- This range seems to be the “halfway promising DSL player” section. That includes Feliz, Tejeda, Tavares, and Cabrera.
- Feliz was the best DSL starter last year and Tejeda was the best hitter (either him or Angel Felix, ranked #19). After such an awful crop of 2023 players, i’m hopeful these two will move stateside soon.
- Romero is only here b/c BA put him as #30. I lampooned that pick in my review of their top 30 list; maybe I’m wrong.
- I like Atencio, and probably should have him a bit higher after his 2024. He graduated from Low-A then threw 19 High-A starts at a 3.41 clip. He’s not higher b/c he’s not a big K/9 guy.
- Glasser may be completely undeserving of a mid 40s spot, but he did start the second breakout game and went 2-2 with a walk.
51 Nick Peoples OF
52 Hyun-Il Choi RHP (Starter)
53 Chase Solesky RHP (Starter)
54 Kyle Luckham RHP (Starter)
55 Angel Roman LHP (Starter)
56 Jack Sinclair RHP (Reliever)
57 Everett Cooper SS
58 T.J. White OF (Corner)
59 Elian Soto OF/SS
60 Marcus Brown SS/2B
51-60 comments:
- This seems to be where I’m sticking “Starters who have had some success and who could still succeed for this team.” That includes Choi, Solesky, and Luckham, all of whom have gotten to the AA level and succeeded there. In fact, i thought Soleksy might actually get protected in Rule-5, having been sent to the AFL last fall.
- Peoples, Cooper, White, and Brown all fall into the same category: they were all 2021-22 draft picks who were at one point fringe top 30 guys who have struggled as they’ve moved up the chain. TJ White was as high as #19 on a list last year and is completely off every major list this year. Interestingly, He was the DH/cleanup hitter in the second breakout game, meaning he’s still on the prospect radar.
- Soto is, of course, younger brother of Juan. He’s nowhere close to where his brother was at this stage of his career of course: Juan debuted in the majors at 19 while Elian is hitting .175 in the FCL at 19. Is he a prospect? He’s sticking in this range on name alone.
- Sinclair got an appearance at the Prospects game, bailing out Susana in the first. He has big time movement on his fastball, which had great arm-side ride despite not being that high in velocity. He seems like the kind of guy who can sit in a bullpen for a while getting outs.
61 Luke Young RHP (Starter)
62 Rony Bello INF
63 Yoel Tejada Jr. RHP (Reliever)
64 Brenner Cox OF (CF)
65 Lucas Knowles LHP (Reliever)
66 Daison Acosta RHP (reliever)
67 Hector Liriano OF
68 Dustin Saenz LHP (Starter)
69 Sir Jamison Jones CA
70 Mark Davis RHP (Starter)
61-70 comments:
- A lot of these guys are here b/c they were on the fringes of the Prospects1500 top 50 list, so I gave them some credit in the 60-70 range.
- Bello is a 2025 IFA bonus ranking, something I hate to do but whatever, its #62.
- I like Saenz and Knowles; they’ve both had really solid seasons for the team in the last couple of years. But, both may have also hit ceilings.
- Sir Jamison Jones: he’s an interesting one; decent scouting report, still shocked he signed. Will he turn into Cox (who I have at #64 here) or will he stand out? He was a defensive C sub in the second breakout game.
- Daison Acosta might very well make the MLB this year, with a live arm and a 2025 NRI. Maybe he should be higher, like in the 30-40 “decent relievers” section.
- Tejada pitched the last two innings of the second breakout game, probably a telling appearance. He’s still on the XST roster.
71 Roismar Quintana 1B/OF
72 Seth Shuman RHP (Starter)
73 Jeremy De La Rosa OF (Corner)
74 Jermaine Maricuto 1B/C
75 Leuris Portorreal RHP (Starter)
76 Gavin Dugas 2B
77 Mikey Tepper RHP (Starter)
78 Michael Cuevas RHP (Starter)
79 Leodarlyn Colon RHP (Starter)
80 Brandon Pimentel 1B
71-80 range:
- Several guys in this section who used to be far higher up the list; Quintana, Shuman, and De La Rosa.
- I’ve always liked Shuman: he missed 2020 with Covid and 2023 with injury, now is 27 and put up decent stats in AA .. but he’s too old. I don’t entirely understand why the team didn’t promote him more aggressively last year. Then, he pops up in the Breakout game and threw the last three innings cleanly. So, maybe he should be higher.
- Maricuto and Portorreal were basically the best of the 2023 IFA class and a couple of the few that graduated to Florida last year.
- Pimentel: one shop randomly had him in their top 50 so I threw him in here.
- I’ve always thought Dugas had the potential to be a real baller, despite being a senior sign.
- Tepper is probably ranked here b/c he’s got local ties (he went to Liberty), but his numbers last year weren’t half bad.
81 Jared McKenzie OF (CF)
82 Joe Narango 1B
83 Jorgelys Mota SS
84 Miguel Gomez RHP (Reliever)
85 Liam Sullivan LHP (Starter)
86 Yoander Rivero SS
87 Bryan Sanchez RHP (Starter)
88 Viandel Pena SS
89 Andy Acevedo OF
90 Elijah Nunez OF (Corner)
81-90 commentary
- A hodge podge of players here.
- Narango was a MLFA who can still hit.
- Acevedo was a big-bonus 2023 IFA who was ranked as high as #19 by Fangraphs two years ago (Longenhagen really likes Ceiling) but who havn’t done much.
- Sullivan made two starts and hit the DL, missing the whole season in Low-A but I think he could be something as long as it wasn’t TJ that costs him all of 2025.
91 Matt Suggs C
92 Max Romero Jr. C
93 Pablo Aldonis LHP (Starter)
94 Todd Peterson RHP (Reliever)
95 Carlos Batista OF
96 Johnathan Thomas OF (CF)
97 Gabriel Agostini LHP (Reliever)
98 Branden Boissiere OF (Corner)
99 Juan Garcia SS
100 Juan Obispo OF
101 Nathan Ochoa Leyva OF (Corner)
102 Holden Powell RHP (Reliever)
103 Jackson Cluff SS
104 J.T. Arruda SS
91-104 commentary
- This range gets players who had like a season of high-hopes, and now have had several seasons of lack of production that has put their ceiling as an org guy.
- Boissiere is one of those 1B/corner OF who has never really hit but who sticks around. He was a 3rd rounder and got a bit of a bonus, which may explain it.
- Holden Powell: case study why you shouldn’t draft guys who are already relievers in college.
- Cluff, Arruda, Thomas: all guys who have worked their way up the org but who now are waiting out the 6year MLFA string. Thomas appeared in the second breakout game.
- So, I may have Romero way too low here. He was the starting catcher at the first Breakout game, catching 6 innings while Bazzell got the last few. Maybe he’s a better prospect than I gave him credit for. I’ll probably move him into the 40-50 range just based on principle after this publishes.
Speaking of the first Breakout game, here’s the ranks for the starters, subs, and arms:
Game 1:
- Lile: 15
- House: 3
- Wallace: 7
- Morales: 6
- Pinckney: 20
- King: 5
- Green: 23
- Romero: 92
- Cox: 66
Subs
- Mota: 84
- Cruz: 27
- Tavares: 48
- Peterson: 37
- Dickerson: 12
- Bazzell: 16
Arms
- Susana: 4
- Sinclair: 56
- Grissom: 39
- Alvarez: 28
- Shuman: 72
Top 20 Prospects not in either Breakout game: Crews (1), Sykora (2), Cavalli (8), Hassell (10), Lara (13), Stuart (14), Bennett (17), Lord (18), Feliz (19).
Phew. 104 players. did I miss anyone? Did I accidentally list someone here that we released (I did that last year I think). I did a quick glance at our Draft boards and tried to find the highest drafted non-senior sign players from the last few draft classes not mentioned in the top 104:
- 2024: 11th rounder Merritt Beeker; low-A middle reliever
- 2023: 9th rounder Thomas Shultz, high-a closer and who pitched in the breakout game.
- 2023: 12th rounder Travis Sthele: low-A starter
- 2022: 7th rounder Riley Cornelio: this is a surprise b/c he’s been a rotation starter since he got here.
- 2022: 8th rounder Chance Huff: middle reliever in High-A.
- 2021: 14th rounder Erik Tolman, injured Low-A starter
I’m also completely missing Carlos Romero, who was in the 2nd breakout game and who is a reliever in AAA. I checked in my XLS and when he hit 6yr MLFA I turned him inactive. Clearly he’s been retained/resigned and so I’ll probably throw him in the 50s somewhere going forward.
many thanks for the massive effort. will be fun to track throughout the season
FredMD
17 Mar 25 at 9:24 am
I see Wallace in AA to start the season if only because House, Tena, Lipscomb, Baker and Nunez will be in AAA.
FredMD
17 Mar 25 at 11:31 am
Terrific job. I will gladly cite / steal some of you observations about players who get less publicity. Your AAA rotation comment about the depth there is a nice problem. A few qs for discussion / your thoughts:
-The Seth Shuman thing yesterday was intriguing because, as you put it, at 27 he’s not a prospect age-wise. Would you add him to the AA rotation until he’s beaten out / pushed aside?
-does Susana jump to AA right away, or get more innings in Wilmington?
– Bennett starts in AA, so rotation there might be Stuart, Lara, Choi, Bennett, Shuman, with Susana if they go with 6.
-Non-rotation, but would a Wallace move to 2d put him in Rochester right away? I think there’s a place for a righty-hitting 2B / 1B capable of playing 3B almost right away in DC, so that would unblock him. Tena could get playing time backing up the 3 spots (assuming Nunez starts at SS).
JCA
17 Mar 25 at 12:05 pm
@FredMD: House, Tena, Lipscomb, Baker and Nunez all in AAA clogging up the dirt; probably a fair point on Wallace. It’s not like he hit 300/400/500 in AA last year. I also don’t really see anyone pushing for 3B in AA, so maybe he splits time between 3B and 2B in case … House doesn’t pan out? Who knows.
Todd Boss
17 Mar 25 at 12:45 pm
@jca: Shuman is still around. he finished in AA rotation so why not start him there in 2025 and see what he does? A covid year and an injury year and suddenly you have 2 lost seasons.
Susana guess: he only had 10 starts in High-A; I could see him get another month there before moving up.
Wallace: see FredMD’s point about too many infielders; They basically need/want four fielder backups on the MLB roster:
– guy who can at least man CF: Call
– guy who can play SS if Abrams gets hurt (Rosario)
– A backup 1B/DH bench bat who can swap in with Bell and Lowe: its going to be either Yepez or Chaparo
OR – a utility-type who can play a corner, or 2B/3B: That could be Nunez or Tena.
So, yeah a slew of guys are pouring into AAA, which means not enough PT for Wallace up there.
Todd Boss
17 Mar 25 at 12:53 pm
Thanks Todd.
Re Wallace to 2d – I could be wrong, but I could see a Rochester lineup in April with House at 3rd, Nunez at SS, Wallace at 2nd, with Tena getting playing time at all 3 positions, and Morales at 1st. I’m assuming Yepez is on the MLB roster and Chaparro is on the MLB IL with his oblique. Hassell, Garrett, and primarily platoon of Baker and Pinckney. I’ve not accounted for Lipscomb, so maybe Wallace full time at 3rd in Harrisburg is more likely, but I kind of see enough playing time in Rochester with a rotational DH (Garrett, Tena, days off. Franchy isn’t the answer there.
What interests me in Wallace to 2nd is Garcia is a lefty, as is Lowe. I don’t think Rosario is long for the MLB team (not into August). There’s a real opportunity for a CI and 2nd RH bat.
JCA
17 Mar 25 at 4:42 pm
Fantastic list, Todd. My new favorite of the offseason. I can’t complain with it too much. But here’s a few additional thoughts on some of the obscure guys.
Elian Soto, though, feels way too high. Just being the same blood as Juan has some benefits, notability, for one, but his performance to date has been the opposite of Soto-esque. Not sure he’s worthy of even a top 150 list…
Brenner Cox is also way too low. I’d put him around Elijah Green, who I’d probably put slightly farther back than you. Both Green and Cox were drafted in 2022 out of HS, though Cox is about a half a year younger than Green. Both signed for 7 figure bonuses (granted Cox for a substantial overslot of $1m for a 4th rounder, while Green as we all know signed for $6.5m). Both have struggled massively with making contact, but both strangely have a strong propensity for taking walks.
The difference, however, is that Cox made pretty big strides in 2024. He had a downright miserable 2023, where he struck out 41% of the time and hit .142, but his 2024 had encouraging signs. He cut his K% down to “only” 35.7% (If Green cut down on his K rate by 6%, I’d be ecstatic), and increased his BB% and power (.144 ISO, almost identical to that of Green’s .147). Altogether, Cox posted a pretty good (for A ball) 115 wRC+. The AVG still isn’t pretty (.204), but it doesn’t take much to be good in A ball these days, and with a 16 BB%, a .352 OBP will do that. And while he profiles more as a corner OF, he’s got wheels (29 SB in 90 games), while being almost as big as Green. Lots to be encouraged with for 2025. I think there’s much more breakout potential from Cox than Green at this point.
I’m higher on Sam Petersen than most. He had fantastic numbers at Iowa, and garnered some decent draft buzz. In a week of professional ball, he hit a mere .364/.400/.591, and is toolsy enough to project to something of value. Seems at least worthy of being alongside the likes of the “Wasted Bonus Pool” guys.
I can’t disagree too much given the injury history, but Liam Sullivan has looked electric when he’s been on the diamond. Unfortunately you could say the same about Peyton Glavine or Koda Glover before him. Hope the injury (was it confirmed TJ?) does cause him to miss all of 2025. Another to watch in 2025.
Will
17 Mar 25 at 6:03 pm
If you are going to list Chaparro and Milas, who have both exceeded rookie eligibility based on service time but not at bats then you might as well list Nasim Nunez who is in the same boat.
James
17 Mar 25 at 6:04 pm
@JCA: Where does Baker play in there? Or Lipscomb? both are on the 40-man and need PT b/c they can get called up anytime. That’s why I agree with those who think Wallace plays 2B and 3B at AA until something gives.
Todd Boss
17 Mar 25 at 6:05 pm
@Will; responses.
– Soto too high: yeah probably.
– Cox too low: well, the team certainly thinks he’s higher, but his stats don’t support it. Career .187 BA. but, maybe he’ll put some stuff together this year. Even if I moved him up, there’s no way he’s in the top 30. I’d have him in the 40s at best.
– Peterson: fair enough: i’ve got him at 38, MLBpipeline 30th, Keith Law “honorable mention,” BA 40th. I just want to see more of him, then hopefully move him into the 20s fast.
– Sullivan injury; no idea. 2 great starts, then poof.
@james: You’re absolutely right and I thought I had Nasim ranked. but i didn’t. I’d have him 30th/31st right next to Chapparo.
Todd Boss
17 Mar 25 at 6:13 pm
Meaningfully, what’s the difference between Cox and Vaquero, Cruz, Ramirez or Made (each top 30 players that you’ve lumped into the “Wasted Bonus Money” cluster)? All 4 of them plus Cox received big signing bonuses (so they get a boost just for the reputation/potential), but have had poor results since then. The difference with Cox compared to say, Vaquero, is that Cox seems to have begun to make the right adjustments. In basically every metric possible, he improved in 2024, which shows, to me at least, a propensity to adapt (a rare trait for batters in this org). Vaquero on the other hand (along with the others) is going in the wrong way in just about every facet. Give me two comparable players, one showing some adaptability and the other failing to adapt, I’ll always give a lot more credence to the former. And for whatever it’s worth, Cox’s OPS last season was .701, next best was Made at .625, Ramirez at .605, and both Vaquero and Cruz had OPS’s in the .500s. Cox also stole the most bases of the 5 (29). It’s why, while he’s not an IFA like the other 4 Wasted Bonus Money contingent, he’s still been a waste of draft bonus money, and his age/development track follows theirs better than most others on the list.
That’s my case, and I’ll leave it at that. Happy to be in the minority to see a slightly higher upside with Cox. And even with that said, I’m not super high on him. I’d have these WBM players probably a tier later, in the 30s/40s, as I much prefer the high floor/low ceilings of the reliever contingent and Millas/Glasser/Petersen types, as I think the likelihood that Ribalta produces even one mediocre relief season of value for the Nats is far higher and far more valuable than the likelihood any of these WBM types ever produce any value for the Nats. But I think we both understand each other’s perspective on this already.
Will
18 Mar 25 at 4:37 am
This is an incredible list, and must have been a huge undertaking. Thanks for putting it together.
I think that your choices are extremely reasonable and make sense to me, even as I may quibble with a particular or two.
Among the 25-30 guys who are “real prospects”, I haven’t yet seen enough from Wallace to be as optimistic as you. Same really with the recent draft picks like Loma and Dickerson but, even with those guys a few spots lower, our top 30s have almost all the same guys in mostly the same order.
In the abstract, I worry that floor over ceiling can be a bit distorting. Crews is the only player in the system who has a reasonable floor (ie their 20% percentile outcome) that’s still a useful player in the majors. So weighing “floor” between, say, Alvarez and Dashyll Tejeda is more about valuing minor league accomplishments than projecting the floor of their eventual development. I understand the temptation to do that, and I do agree that some evaluators are overly enamored with tools and slow to recognize actual results, but I just don’t think the team values production in the minors beyond the extent that it projects into the majors. So prioritizing floor as you do, I think, forces you to have a different understanding of value than the team itself and that doesn’t sound optimal for this kind of exercise.
That all said, it only comes into play past the top 25ish guys, so how distorting can it even be?
The other thing I’ve noticed is that your evaluations seem to be rather inelastic in terms of age. A big part of the Lile / Hassell comparison is, for me, the almost 1.5 year difference between them. Holding Made and R Ramirez Jr as nearly equivalent feels meaningfully off to me, given the latter is almost three years younger. I have Made in the late 30s and Ramirez about where you have him.
And we’ve talked a ton about relievers, but we’re really just slightly differing in degree – I wouldn’t have any of them in my top 25 either, so I think we’ve split that hair to death. The only two relievers I’ll mention are Henry and Rutledge. I think you have Henry ranked about correctly, but I will be willing to move him up to as high as 25th if he is healthy and effective in AAA for a couple of months. And I think you ranked Rutledge, post conversion, very generously. I had him just a few spots higher when he was still a starter and now would have him down around 40th.
Another general thought I had while reading this list is that, while “make or break” is a phrase that can be used too readily (I think most years are “make or break” for most prospects), our system has a good number of folks who really are facing pivotal development moments. Imagine how differently we’ll think of House or Hassell on June 1st if they have a AAA wRC+ of 110 or 80. Morales needs to show exit velocity and/or well above average production or his late season resurgence will appear a mirage. Cavalli and Henry need to healthy or they fall off lists completely. Green and Vaquero need to get up off the mat and show a step forward. It’s I think peculiar that we’re in a position to learn meaningful and in some cases nearly dispositive information about so many of our prospects in the next couple of months.
SMS
18 Mar 25 at 6:23 am
@Will: difference between Cox to those other guys … for me its potential. Cox was not a 1st round talent, or a top-of-the-IFA market talent. He was a lesser prep kid who took some money to forgoe college. So his ceiling was never that high. He had a solid September, which is great, and something to build on.
It is telling that Cox was in the Futures game and not Vaquero, Hurtado, Ramirez, or Made. Cruz was there and got some PT but not as a starter, which they gave to King in both cases.
Prospect rating is always a balance of floor and ceiling, totally agree. Ribalta: high floor (looks like he’ll make MLB this year) but low ceiling (will he ever be more than a 4th RHP out of the pen?) Green: low floor (which he’s on right now, hitting sub .200 for two years in Low-A) but still a high ceiling (his scouting grades have always included a bunch of 60s).
Todd Boss
18 Mar 25 at 10:37 am
Really fun read, Todd. Thanks for all the work.
In a general FYI note, Zuckerman reported on Friday that Chaparro’s oblique injury will have him starting the season on the IL.
John C.
18 Mar 25 at 12:56 pm
@JohnC: thanks! yeah i just saw that too … so that seems to pave the way for Yepez on the opening day roster.
Todd Boss
18 Mar 25 at 3:34 pm
In many ways, this feels like the deepest the organization has ever been with guys with a legit MLB shot, which is probably a big part of why Todd went so deeply into the weeds. At the same time, Keith Law ranked the Nats’ system in his 4th tier, at 17, basically saying that the Nats’ main issue is that Crews is their only sure thing.
Both opinions actually can be true at the same time.
In fact, a good bit of my pushback on Law would be not to cite one or two particular players, but more the chances of success that come from having more than just a couple of lottery tickets. Even if Sykora and Susana don’t happen to make it big, the chances are still good that they’ll come up with at least a couple of pretty good starting pitchers from among those two plus Cavalli, Lord, Lara, Clemmey, Stuart, and Bennett. That’s eight quality starting pitching candidates, six of whom will probably start the spring/summer at AA or higher. Parker (25) and Herz (24) are also still younger, and Gore (26) and Gray (27) aren’t exactly old. The odds are good that they’ll have at least four quality starters from among those 12 for several years to come.
Among the hitting prospects beyond Crews, House and Hassell both have had very encouraging springs. If both can make it as MLB regulars by next season, that would be a significant step in the rebuild. It would also be a setback if they don’t pan out, particularly House. There’s not a lot of starter potential among other OF prospects, either, unless the contact gods suddenly smile on Green, or Lile or Pinckney show more power. (Sorry Todd, but you’ve got a lot more faith right now in your bonus-driven rankings of Vaquero and Hurtado than I do.) The team does seem pleased in Cox’s progress, but he and Green still haven’t even played at the A+ level yet. It will be very interesting to see if they have Dickerson in INF or OF. I’m betting they see more of a future need for him to fill in the OF.
The infield has some interesting characters beyond House, but nothing close to sure things. At the same time, a lot of the redundancy seems to be at positions that appear to be locked down at the MLB level, namely SS (if Abrams can straighten up) and 2B. They drafted a supposed SS in King, and Wallace is getting all of his reps at 2B now. Tena and Lipscomb are both multi-position guys with the outside potential of becoming starters, although Tena really spit the bit this spring. The jury is out on Wallace after all the 2024 time he missed due to injury. He has shown some pretty significant pop in college in 2022 and the pros in 2023, though. He’s definitely one to watch. With King, I sure hope he turns out to be the Mookie-like (without Mookie power) prospect that the gurus think he is, but he also had only one season at the D1 level, so I also wouldn’t be so quick to try to rush him through the organization.
Among the others, I’m a lot more curious about Randal Diaz than I am about Kevin Made and Armando Cruz, neither of whom have shown me much of anything. Glasser has hit better than those two guys combined, but as others have noted, they seem to be pushing him more toward an OF/utility role, I think mainly because they see him as behind King and Wallace in the pecking order. I forgot about Nunez, who has had a fantastic spring contact-wise, albeit weak contact. He will stay in the mix as at least a shuttle SS with three years of options in his bank. Dickerson and A. Feliz are promising but still years away.
The jury is still out on Morales, and like Todd, I still have some solid hopes for him. They bought themselves some time for his development with the Lowe trade. Yepez had some half-decent numbers last season but has really struggled in the spring and probably played himself off the MLB roster. Chaparro is an intriguing dude who has topped 20 homers in the last three minor-league seasons. He’s had an excellent spring but is dinged right now. Is he a legit prospect, or more the Yankee version of Matt Skole? (Of course all of this will be moot when they sign Vlad Jr. next offseason.) (Majorly wishful thinking!!!)
At catcher, Millas has totally blown his shot this spring. The Nats are still looking for Ruiz to round into more, although they certainly invested big in last year’s draft with two of their top four picks in Lomavita and Bazzell. Law loves Bazzell.
With so many guys in play across the board, 2025 promises to be a big sorting year. Right now I’m more encouraged about the pitching depth than I am on the hitting side. Beyond Crews, we really are hoping more on potential than we are on actual recent production.
KW
18 Mar 25 at 8:24 pm
KLaw’s Org ranking for us: He was slightly lower than the other major pundits, but not appreciably so: of the major rankings we came in 13,14,12,17, and 12. So Law the outlier, otherwise everyone else saw us in the same place. I’m not terribly worried about our farm system rank b/c (as Law notes) we promote aggressively. If House was in AA hitting .350 instead of AAA hitting .240 as a 20yr old, he’d be higher ranked and so would our system. But that’s not what we do. I’m a-ok with what we do; challenge these guys early, not let them languish in a level that they’ve dominated (with the 2024 exceptions of Sykora and Cronin).
All my historical farm system ranks in one place, going back 25 years: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ipxQoHgXrf0EDL0iMc2zqLu4rX7RbXani4nfY0RUJlw/edit?usp=sharing
Bonus driven rankings: totally fair. But those bonuses were given out (as with Green) based on tools that didn’t disappear overnight. So, there’s still ceiling there. Now, at some point Vaquero and Cruz turn into Antuna and you have to cut bait. Are we there yet? I don’t think so; they’re still kids for the most part. Now, when they get to 22-23 and have 7 pro seasons and aren’t improving? Yeah that’s too late.
Todd Boss
19 Mar 25 at 9:56 am
On IFA bonuses, I do wonder:
1) how much the bonus correlates with talent/tools? For example do the best players get the highest bonuses? It doesn’t feel like that’s the case. Just check out the bonuses compared to MLB’s prospect ratings: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-international-prospects-signing-day-2023. For example, the 34th best prospect got as much as the 11th best. 38th got more than 14th.
2) related to this, with stories of guys agreeing contracts at like age 12-14, can the bonuses really match tools/talent? I’m struck by the Nats releasing Edwin Solano less than 2 years after they signed him to a $1.3m contract. The Nats would have had to massively sour on him after 82 DSL games. Solano is still 7 months younger than Luke Dickerson, who hasn’t played a single professional game of baseball. He’s has all the time in the world. You don’t release a guy that quickly, even if he was hitting .174, if you thought he had $1.3m upside less than 24 months ago. Or, I suspect, the kid they signed at age 14 or whatever developed differently than they expected he would and could already see he was a bit of bust in 2023, and those subsequent 82 games confirmed this. But to maintain relationships, they honored the deal they struck years ago.
I’d love to see some sort of analysis of IFA scouting. Are the best players the ones that get the biggest bonuses? Soto got the 15th highest bonus the same year Lucius Fox got 4 times his bonus, the biggest that year, followed by Jhailyn Ortiz, Wander Javier, and then…. Vlad Guerrero Jr. All the way down at 31st was Fernando Tatis Jr and at 27th and 28th were actual big leaguers Oneil Cruz, Christopher Morel and Isaac Paredes (what a stacked IFA class by the way!!) with the 20 names in between basically a list of irrelevance.
So all that to say, I wonder how much we can read into bonuses correlating with talent? There’s obviously something to it, but I’d strongly suspect there’s a weaker correlation between bonuses and success among IFA signings than HS draft picks, for example, given the more transparent and competitive draft/bonus system.
Will
19 Mar 25 at 11:32 am
Also, Todd, a huge thanks for all your great spreadsheets, I’m always discovering new ones. I routinely refer to your IFA bonus tracker and prospect lists ones, and appreciate this new org ranking one! Is it possible to update the NatsArmsRace Creations list in the right hand toolbar with the spreadsheets you’re keeping updated? I’m sure there’s more I’m not aware of than these 3.
Will
19 Mar 25 at 11:37 am