Here’s our third check-in on the 1-1 candidates, focusing on the College players now that they’re six weeks (aka six weekend series) into their seasons. We’re into the conference schedules, so no more patty cakes for these guys, and we should start to see some better indication of how good these guys are.
Aggregation Stats for all of College
- Fangraphs Standard Hitting, Advanced Hitting
- Fangraphs Standard Pitching, Advanced Pitching
- Baseball-Reference College Home Page
- NCAA Division 1 Baseball Stats Home Page
- D1Baseball.com Stats Home Page
Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration
- Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M. TAMU stats & Box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State. FSU stats & box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara. UCSB stats & box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State. OSU stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Tennessee stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee. Tennessee stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana. Indiana stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona. UofA stats and box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
College guys we’re removing from 1-1 discussion for now:
- Cam Canarella, CF, Clemson. Clemson stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
Prep Players who are theoretically in the running: I’ll only include them if I come across some new/live reporting.
- Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK). MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA). MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
- Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX). MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
Here’s some commentary:
- LaViolette: Jace has had a couple solid weeks, raising his average from the low .200s to a more solid looking .284, part of his current .284/.434/.568 slash line. His TAMU team is falling off a cliff, getting swept in their first two SEC series, but he looked decent at Vanderbilt last weekend, going a combined 4-10 with a homer and 3 walks. He needs to get hot to get himself back in 1-1 discussions.
- Arnold: Continued his hot start with a scoreless (albeit short) outing against Boston College two weekends ago, then got shelled at Miami in his first real test of the season, giving up 7ER in 4IP. Unfortunately, Mike Rizzo was in Miami for the start, and probably didn’t like what he saw. Curiously, he’s yet to get to 80 pitches in any start this year. Is that b/c its been cold (in Tallahasse??), he’s still getting stretched out (he’s got 6 starts now?) or because his team didn’t “need” him to go deeper than 75 pitches/5 innings? Some question marks here.
- Bremner: cruised past the weaker Miami 6ip/1ER, then gave up 3ER in the 5th against the tougher UC Irvine to take a loss despite a quality start. His team mustered just 4 hits on the day. His season numbers look “okay” but not fantastic, and I can’t see getting excited to take this guy 1-1.
- Arquette: his average took a nose dive in the past couple of weeks as GCU/Santa Clara held him to just a 2-13 line, then Cal Poly “held” him to a 2-10 weekend (both hits were homers). He’s still slashing above 1,000.
- Doyle continues to have circus numbers on the season, maintaining his 18 K/9 rate. But now the hard part; SEC play. It took him 105 pitches to go 4 2/3 against Florida two weeks ago (phew) but he only had two walks. Sounds like a lot of full counts. Then he got hit against Alabama, giving up 6 in 6 to take two straight losses as Tennessee’s ace (110 pitches to finish 6 innings). I wonder; are scouts already thinking reliever here? 100 pitches to get through 5 innings in college would probably be 3 innings in the pros.
- Kilen suffered a Hamstring injury that has had him sitting since 3/18/25. He’s slashing .431/.552/.986 for a ridiculous 1,538 OPS figure for the season, but he’s now set to miss SEC play. They’re hopeful he’s back for next weekend.
- Taylor sports a healthy 1,200 OPS right now. His problem will be competition: Indiana doesn’t exactly play a powerhouse schedule. They did have to visit UCLA last weekend, and he went 3-11 with a homer. But, hitting .370 against Ohio State and Penn State isn’t that impressive. Furthermore, a ton of his stats are built on mid-week games against a college called “The Mount,” who i’ve never heard of but who Indian beat 18-5 and 20-7 in two mid-week games. I may drop covering him unless he does something against a solid opponent.
- Summerhill maintains a .400 BA 6 weeks into the season against what admittedly looks like one of the tougher pre-conference schedules I’ve seen. He profiles as a rangy OF, maybe CF, playing RF and batting leadoff for Arizona. He has some power. We’ll see how he holds on as AZ enters deeper into its Big12 schedule.
The Race for 1-1: Arnold takes a step back, Bremner looks meh, Arquette comes back to reality, Doyle can’t find the plate, and LaViolette takes a step back in the right direction but is it too little, too late? And, does this college churn pave the way for Holliday to return to 1-1 status?
As several of the collegians fade, my first thought is that the possibility of drafting Holliday 1/1 is probably surging in their wake. That’s sort of been my criteria all along for really considering Holliday: only if none of the college guys really stand out.
Doyle seems like the type Rizzo would like, although those pitch counts are brutal. Welcome to the world of thinking about drafting college pitchers.
The appeal with Killen is that he’s a high-contact guy, basically a safe floor pick who you know will likely make it, even if the ceiling and the position are in question. Makes me think of Brooks Lee, who the Nats likely would take in a heartbeat if there was a do-over of the 2022 draft. MLB.com comps him to Gavin Lux, which seems like faint praise until you remember that Lux was a consensus top-5 overall prospect at one point, until his power vanished when he got to Chavez Ravine.
KW
24 Mar 25 at 4:37 pm
@KW I agree. Every time a guy like Arnold gets shelled, Holliday moves up another notch. Bremner just isn’t impressing me in a secondary conference. But, and I hate saying this, we don’t “need” more hitters. We need to develop some frontline starters.
Todd Boss
24 Mar 25 at 5:24 pm
Do we? They’ve got supposedly high-ceiling pitching prospects in Sykora, Susana, and Clemmey, all of who are younger, and whose pitch counts are being managed better, than the draft-eligible collegiate starters. Gore, Parker, and Herz are all still pretty young. Cavalli still hasn’t been tapped yet. There was a lot of higher-ceiling buzz about Bennett before his injury. Lara has rounded into form and is only 22. Lord and Stuart still have MLB starter potential as well.
I’m not saying at all not to draft a pitcher if one distances himself from the class. Take the best player available. But at the same time, there shouldn’t be desperation to take a pitcher.
Conversely, I don’t have a huge amount of confidence in the hitting prospects beyond Crews. I’m not predicting that they’ll all fail, just pointing out that there’s a lot of high risk that they’ll actually make it, particularly where power is concerned. There was very little power across the system in 2024, as both Will and I tried to document at Nats Prospects at the time of the top 10 bats. I’m disappointed that LaViolette seems to have crapped out as a potential top pick, as his was power you could dream on.
KW
24 Mar 25 at 5:48 pm
Yikes. In a season without a consensus 1-1, the non-consensus 1-1s all seem to be doing their best to play themselves out of contention.
I’d like to hear more about Holliday’s HS season so far. Has he cut down on his swing and miss tendencies? How’s he looked against strong opposition?
I’d hate it if we drafted a high-risk HS bat, whose weaknesses are also the Nats weaknesses. But man, none of the college players are really making a case for themselves either…
But if the more hyped guys aren’t playing well, I think it’s time to cast a wider net of 1-1 potential picks.
I will once again throw Wehiwa Aloy’s name into the mix. He’s currently batting .402/.491/.835 in the powerhouse SEC. Interestingly, his little brother and teammate, Kuhio, is matching him with a line of .420/.510/.815 (1.325 OPS vs 1.326, haha!). Kuhio, though, is defensively limited and a Sophomore, while Wehiwa profiles as a SS and is a JR.
Marek Houston, another name bandied around as a first rounder, is hitting .406/.500/.771 for Wake Forest.
His teammate, Ethan Conrad, another name in first round consideration, is matching Houston’s line of .372/.495/.744
Kyson Witherspoon continues to dominate for Oklahoma, striking out 11, walking 1 and allowing 1 ER in 6.2 IP against Miss. State. He had a less impressive outing the week before against South Carolina, allowing 3 ER in 5.1 IP, 7:1 K:BB. But with his Oklahoma pedigree, you have to believe he’s on Rizzo’s radar.
Will
25 Mar 25 at 7:08 am
@KW: do I think we need to focus on pitching in the draft? Yeah I do. I think we need a quick to the majors, mature, legitimate College starter. Unfortunately, i’m not sure it exists in this draft.
We expended a ton of draft capital from 2019-2022 in upper-level starters, and have basically gotten nothing to show for it.
– 2019 1st rounder Rutledge ($3.4M): failed starter, AAA bullpen
– 2020 1st rounder Cavalli ($3M): injured now for 2 full seasons, will start 3rd on the DL
– 2020 2nd rounder Henry ($2M): TJ, injured, now a AAA reliever
– 2021 (we drafted just one legitimate prospect starter in the first 10 rounds; Saenz in the 4th)
– 2022 2nd rounder Bennett ($1.7M): TJ, missed a season and a half, has made just 15 pro starts to date.
If we had any of these four major money guys in the MLB rotation, pitching to their ceiling … we’d be weathering the storm of the loss of Grey and maybe be talking a different story. Imagine if we’d have had Cavalli giving us 30 starts last year as a #2 starter capable guy? We’d have been in the wildcard hunt b/c they would have released Corbin and replaced 6-13 and negative bWAR with the exact reverse.
Todd Boss
25 Mar 25 at 8:52 am
speaking of pitching….not good.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/03/nationals-dj-herz-ucl-sprain.html
Todd Boss
25 Mar 25 at 10:09 am
Todd, isn’t that a backwards way of saying we SHOULDN’T focus on pitching?
If we’re that bad at IDing and developing pitching talent, maybe we should blow our 1-1 on a pitcher.
The solution here, as was demonstrated via our WS victory, is that it’s a good idea to build a rotation via free agency. If we hadn’t signed Scherzer, Corbin and Sanchez, we’d have lost 90+ games with an internally developed rotation of Strasburg, Fedde, Voth, Cole and Jefry Rodriguez.
Will
25 Mar 25 at 10:17 am
Re: Herz, ughhh… apparently Herz was dealing with “dead arm”, which has now turned into a UCL sprain.
Meanwhile, our last undiagnosed arm, Cavalli, is still MIA after repeated proclamations he was healthy at the end of 2024…
But this is why we signed a bunch of mediocre SP FAs. Injuries are always bound to happen and why TINSTAAPP has remained relevant for years.
Will
25 Mar 25 at 10:21 am
@Will. yeah that’s one way to look at it.
This team’s first successful season was in 2012. 98 wins with this rotation: Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Jackson, Detwiler, and Strasburg. Three home grown (a 1-1, another 1st, and a 2nd), a one-year rental in Jackson, and then a generational trade acquisition purchased with prospect capital. We also had Lannan as the 6th starter (homegrown) and Wang as a 7th (FA).
By 2014 (96 wins) this had morphed to: Strasburg, Zimmermann, Roark, Gonzalez, Fister. Similar to 2012; 3 prospects (4 if you count Roark, who we acquired as a minor leaguer), 2 trade acquisitions.
In 2016, we had shifted; The rotation was Scherzer, Strasburg, Roark, Gonzalez, and Ross (with a slew of 6th starter games entirely by young prospects Giolito, Cole, Lopez). So, still 3 home grown (Stras, Roark, Ross), one major FA, one trade acquisition.
By 2019: Strasburg, Corbin, Scherzer, Sanchez, Fedde. 25 add’l starts from Ross, Voth, and FA Hellickson. but the core roattion was 2 major FAs, 1 one-year rental FA, two prospects.
A recurring theme in all four of these years? Four of our five starters in each year basically did 30+ starts. In 2019 Strasburg of all people led the league in IP. That counts for a lot.
So, regardless … i still think you need to develop starters. 2019 inarguably depended on FAs, but it was a home grown guy who led the line.
Honestly, it seems like the way to go is to get a core of prospects who can hang, then augment with a major signing to get over the top. 2019 featured two major signings and it paid off. But you can’t build a rotation entirely out of FA unless you’re NY or LAD and willing to spend $300M in payroll.
Todd Boss
25 Mar 25 at 10:52 am
One absolutely can buy a rotation out of FAs.
We could have signed Corbin Burnes, Max Fried AND Blake Snell, the three most expensive FA SPs this winter, instead of retreads in Williams, Soroka and Ogasawara, and our total payroll would be $192m, which would be the 14th highest payroll in baseball.
The Nationals in the 8th most populous market, 5th wealthiest market, and the 2nd wealthiest owners, can – make no mistake – afford the 14th highest payroll. They simply choose not to.
Will
25 Mar 25 at 3:37 pm
Don’t forget Denaburg in 2018 and Romero in 2017 — the WORST pick of them all. In fact, 2017 was the infamous draft where the Nats took nine pitchers in their first ten picks, along with the diminutive Cole Freeman. Literally all they got out of that mess was trading Wil Crowe for Josh Bell.
Mark Zuckerman mentioned in passing this week that Cavalli “might” be ready by . . . June. Wow.
I could get on board with Aloy. He’s showing tremendous improvement across the board over his first year in the big time. I do wonder how much success it takes to move the needle on preseason opinion, though. He was only #39 on the MLB.com board. Gavin Klein of Tennessee was only #28. His double-play partner, the much bigger Dean Curley, was #24.
KW
25 Mar 25 at 6:33 pm
I can’t find any in-season news on Holliday, which is a little weird for a guy in 1/1 conversation. Maybe the industry is subscribing to what Law said, basically that it will be difficult to judge any potential improvement against inferior high school competition.
One thing I think we’re sleeping on is the possibility that other high schoolers may end up in the 1/1 conversation. That would not be my choice, both because of the unreliability of HS picks and because I think we all want someone who can help the big club in 2-3 years, not 4-5. Plus as with Holliday, it will be difficult to tell much as they clobber pitches from 5-8 10th graders.
Another point of draft influence will be the performance of several key Nat minor leaguers in the first half of 2025. If Susana looks dominant, Lara continues his bounceback, Sykora recovers in good order, Cavalli actually surfaces, and Bennett looks recovered, they may not feel as much need to take a pitcher 1/1. If none of those scenarios play out well, then Todd’s narrative will get stronger. On the hitting side, will Hassell actually look like the third piece of the MLB OF? Will House truly look like the 3B of the future? Will Abrams act like a pro, or someone on whom they can’t really depend? Will Wallace and Morales look like they have MLB futures, or like college hitters who can’t quite make the pro jump?
Among the hitters, the performance of House would seem to have the most direct influence on potential draft picks. Holliday seems destined for 3B or corner OF. The same might be said of Arquette, Aloy, and Curley. As for OFs, unless you’re looking at moving some of these guys to OF (which they’re probably also already doing with Dickerson), I don’t know who would be the top collegiate OF at this point, maybe Devin Taylor, but the issues in evaluating him are spelled out above.
Could LaViolette get back in the 1/1 conversation? With only six homers after 23 games I’d say it’s unlikely, although it is worth noting the noticeable improvement in his supposed weakest area: he has lowered his K% from 24.3 to 20.8. If he can maintain that contact improvement while finding his power against SEC pitching, he could regain ground quickly, particularly in such an uncertain draft field.
KW
25 Mar 25 at 7:03 pm
Holliday: zero show cases between last fall and now. HS stats are useless. You’re picking on the scouting report.
There are a couple other prep kids routinely listed in the top 10 but not pushing for 1-1.
More and more i’m thinking that this team decides to “go” with its current OF Crews/Wood/Young, which makes Hassell and Lile expendable … and ready to move in trade. Same with Wallace, buried behind House. Yeah they’re trying him at 2B, but Garcia is looking like a 20/20 guy at 2B with a 114 OPS+ last year … nobody’s supplanting that. And you have Nunez as being superfluous to needs if someone thinks he’s more than a backup INF. That kind of upper-level prospect capital can buy some serious MLB talent.
Todd Boss
25 Mar 25 at 9:15 pm
I don’t spend much time looking at draft pick candidates, but I don’t begrudge others doing so as entertainment. All I know is that, no matter who the Nats draft, most of us will HATE the choice.
Rough news about Herz. Now we’re hoping that the starting rotation can hold the fort at least long enough for some of the AAA rotation to push their way up.
The idea that Wallace is “buried behind House” is not credible to me because House is far from a sure thing. I’m still hoping on him, but unless/until he at least hits in AAA he’s not blocking anyone.
And a quick note about “home grown” pitchers. When I’ve made that argument I’ve had people dismiss Roark (acquired for the decaying remains of Cristian Guzman!) and Ross (the player actually named in the Souza-for-Trea deal) as “home grown” because they were acquired by trade when they were minor leaguers.
John C.
26 Mar 25 at 11:43 am
@JohnC: I agree, If we acquire a guy when they’re in A-ball, they’re home grown in my book. I try to make that distinction but may have forgotten. Roark was acquired in 2010 when he had just gotten to AA and didn’t debut in the majors until 2013, while Ross was acquired in 2014 while in high-A in the Turner fleecing. I think both “count” as home grown.
Maybe “buried” is the wrong word for Wallace. But… and I’ve said this in other places, House is a top prospect in all of the sport, plays 3B, is not moving off of 3B, and the team did not sign anyone to block House from coming up. House is the kind of player who you make room for, not the other way around. Sane or not, MLB teams look at the signing bonus as a player investment, not a sunk cost, and will do everything they can to try to get House to play 3B for this team in the majors. Now you tell me they have a 3B prospect who isn’t as highly rated and who they didn’t spend 1st round bonus money on? There’s just no way I’m going to characterize Wallace as being anything except “behind” House in the pecking order at 3B in this organization, unless he reinvents himself as a 2B.
Todd Boss
26 Mar 25 at 2:17 pm
Young had a really shaky spring, doesn’t get on base as well as you would hope for a speedy guy, and has very little pop. They definitely hope that Hassell will show enough to supplant him. I see Lile more as trade fodder.
I’m kind of between the two of you on House. I agree that he has yet to prove that he’s going to make it as a major-leaguer or to show the massive power that he’s supposed to have. At the same time, the Nats definitely have bet that he IS that guy.
As I said above, I think they’ll know a lot more about Wallace and Morales after this season. They both seem to have the possibility of becoming MLB regulars, but injuries slowed the progress of both last summer.
KW
26 Mar 25 at 8:35 pm