Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

Eight Weeks into Spring Season 1-1 Candidate Check In

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Doyle pushing for 1-1. Photo via his Twitter account.

Here’s our fourth check-in on the 1-1 candidates. We’ve started to get some more draft content from the typical sources now that we’re through “Prospect Season” and past opening day.

The consensus on this draft so far from pundits seems to be this: there’s no clear-cut #1 overall pick, but the draft itself is pretty deep. So, bad for us at the top but teams that have multiple picks and lots of money to work with are ecstatic about the depth of talent they’ll be selecting in the 1-Supp and 2nd rounds.

Important Draft related Links that have published since our last posting:

  • Baseball America’s top 300 Draft Prospects for 2025. Dated 3/26/25, goes Arnold, Holliday, Bremner, Hernandez, and Arquette. LaViolette at 9, Doyle 16, Kilen in the 20s, and Taylor in the 30s so i’ve removed them.
  • Prospects Live Top 100 Prep Draft Prospects was posted on 4/1/25. Interestingly they put a new name at the top over the 3 existing names; one Billy Carlson from the same Corona HS as Seth Hernandez. Wow, what a team; can you imagine having two first round talents on the same HS team? Anyway, if you want to read more scouting reports on the Prep kids in the mix, go to the above link to read about them.
  • Right after doing their top 300 list, the team did a “Staff Draft” that ended up with a very interesting name at the top: Seth Hernandez. He would famously be the first ever prep RHP to be drafted 1-1 if this were to happen, and in their podcast this week the writer who took the pick basically said that the struggles of the other candidates combined with the raw talent of Hernandez had him making the pick.
  • Keith Law was onsite for Tennessee-TAMU, and got to see several guys we’re talking about. Notes below on Doyle and LaViolette primarily.
  • Ethan Holliday’s Oklahoma HS team has a matchup coming up with national power Eli Willits, which will be well covered so we’ll finally get some scouting. Law notes that the word on the street so far is that Holliday is hitting and fielding well, which helps his 1-1 case.

Aggregation Stats for College Baseball for Reference:

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration. I’ve got this whittled to 5 for now.

Prep Players who are in the running for 1-1:

Prospects guys we’re removing from 1-1 discussion for now and why.

Here’s some updated commentary.

  • LaViolette: continues to improve his season numbers, now slashing .294/.451/.633 for the season. That’s up from 284/.434/.568 two weeks ago. He’s hit for a ton of power in the last two weeks, helped by a mid-week game against Incarnate Word where he blasted 2 dingers for 7 RBI in a day. Against Tennessee last weekend he went 0-2 against Doyle (no shame there) and an up-and-down weekend otherwise. Creeping back into respect ability; now has 10 hrs and 6 SBs in 31 games on the year. Law’s report was not rosy: 20 swings, 10 misses, and he says basically he saw strikeouts and weak contact all weekend. Law puts him as a back of the 1st rounder at this point, and I may stop reporting on him after this post.
  • Arnold: two up and down starts since we last checked in: at Notre Dame he couldn’t get out of the 5th, needing 94 pitchers to go 4 2/3rds against the not-very-impressive ND squad. A week later at home he cruised against Wake Forest, a tougher team, but still needed 98 pitches to complete 5 innings. 10 ks/2 BB, 2 hits allowed, 2 HBP. He needed 98 pitches to get through 20 batters, which says to me … he’s not hitting the plate a whole lot and is going deep into counts.
  • Bremner: got lit up by Long Beach State, giving up 5 runs and getting yanked in the 4th. Not good. Turned around and got a 7ip/4h/10k outing against UC Davis. Here’s the problem; both these teams are sub .500 Big West rivals; we’re not talking about top competition here.
  • Arquette has cooled significantly, having two straight bad weekends. He went just 1-11 at Nebraska two weeks ago, then just 2-10 at home against UC Irvine to drop his season slash line to .321/.439/.604.
  • Doyle will continue to be on this post until the very end, since he’s the Friday starter for one of the best teams in the country, in the best division. There’s not a player in this draft that we won’t get a better sense of from now until June. In the last two weeks: he gave up 9 hits and 5 runs to South Carolina in a loss (still struck out 11), then frigging no-hit Texas A&M for 6 innings before getting yanked on 96 pitches. 6ip, 0hits, 8k/2bb. Law’s impression? Good. 95-99 on the fastball, a nearly unhittable splitter as his second pitch, then two other pitches that he struggled with (a 87-90 slider and a low-80s curve). He does mention that Doyle’s arm lags, that he’s got funky mechanics, but also that he’s athletic and repeats his motion well. Still, some clear pro reliever worry, not exactly something you want out of your 1-1 pick.

The Race for 1-1 status: I think four of the 5 college guys we’re tracking are playing their way out of the top spot. Right now I think 1-1 is either Doyle or Holliday. If I had to guess how the top 5 picks go right now, I’d guess Holliday, Doyle, Arnold, Hernandez, and Arquette.

Written by Todd Boss

April 7th, 2025 at 9:09 am

Posted in Draft,Prospects

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9 Responses to 'Eight Weeks into Spring Season 1-1 Candidate Check In'

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  1. Yet again a contest of who performs the least bad gets increasing attention to go 1-1. What a seemingly terrible year to get the pick, as right now you could (and many prospect watchers have) name one of like 10 different players to go 1-1 and it wouldn’t stand out as strange.

    On Hernandez and Carlson being in 1-1 consideration, both Lucas Giolito and Max Fried were in the same high school class, and went 1-7 and 1-16, collecting over 35 career WAR between the two. Impressive! Not sure if he was on the varsity team as that point, but Jack Flaherty graduated from the same high school (Harvard Westlake 2 years later) another 10+ WAR pitcher. Crazy.

    Harvard Westlake is also where Bryce Rainer, who the Nats passed on last year, came out of.

    I’m gonna keep Wehiwa Aloy in the running. He’s still hitting better than just about every hitter mentioned above (.372/.463/.693) despite not going deep for almost two weeks now.

    Marek Houston has cooled off quite a bit, and Ethan Conrad his teammate got injured (and stayed injured), dimming their fringey hopes.

    At this point Liam Doyle intrigues me the most. He’s putting up video game numbers (albeit not Skenes-esque), and has the body type to back it up, unlike Bremner and Arnold, and he’s a southpaw.

    I want nothing to do with Holliday. Watching how the Nationals minor league coaching staff has imparted absolutely nothing on Elijah Green (his display so far in Wilmington is painful) leaves me with little hope for a player that also struggles to make consistent contact in Holliday. I’m open to the scouts saying that Holliday has made progress this season. And maybe he succeeds in spite of the coaching, like House. But if we’re looking at a handful of guys who are all relatively equal in talent, I’d stay far, far, far away from a HS with contact issues. We’ve got a dozen examples in the past 5+ years that show we simply CANNOT develop this profile player.

    Will

    7 Apr 25 at 2:53 pm

  2. Not fair or accurate to compare Ethan Holliday to Elijah Green. Holliday is on another level.

    You can blame the Nats for reaching for Green in the 2022 draft (which was a common position), but the Nats’ staff has done everything imaginable to raise his contact rate. It’s not always a coaching issue, Elijah Green has and will always struggle to make contact.

    Bummer that there isn’t an obvious overall #1 pick, but Elijah Green’s struggles have nothing to do whether the Nats should or not take Ethan Holliday.

    Pilchard

    7 Apr 25 at 4:52 pm

  3. Elijah Green was a consensus top 5 pick (Ranks: #3 by MLB, #4 Law, #5 BA, #11 Fangraphs, #5 ESPN, #2 Prospects1500), some even describing him as the 1-1 pick early on. Here’s MLB Pipeline doing so: https://www.mlb.com/news/top-high-school-draft-prospects-2022

    “There are those who are already coronating Green as the No. 1 pick, and some who say he would have been the No. 1 pick in this year’s Draft. The tools are undeniable, though the Miami recruit does have some swing-and-miss issues he’ll need to iron out to be the slam-dunk choice next year.”

    Here’s the same writer’s early scouting report on Holliday:
    “Holliday may have the most usable left-handed power in the Draft… He tried to do too much when he got pitched around on the circuit last summer, leading to some swing-and-miss concerns, but he should develop into at least an average hitter with 35-homer pop and plenty of walks.”

    I’m not inventing this swing and miss concern, and as I said, I’d be very happy to learn an 18 year old has made significant progress at this. But until someone says otherwise, I will assume this remains an issue with Holliday.

    But it’s also not only Green that causes this worry. We’ve been largely incapable of developing our other HS draft picks’ ability to make contact. Yes, Brady House, though he has concerns, has largely been successful so far (Daylen Lile as well), but Brenner Cox, Nathaniel Ochoa-Leyva, Nick Peoples, and TJ White (the rest of our HS picks over the past 5 years) have had as much success as Green in learning how to hit a baseball. If it’s were just Green, I wouldn’t be nearly so worried. But it’s the norm and not the exception.

    As I said, if Holliday isn’t seen to be significantly better than a dozen other players, the Nationals would be unwise to choose a player profile they’ve, to put it gently, struggled to develop successfully, and not a safer, more developed college pick (though perhaps with a lower ceiling).

    There’s an additional advantage in drafting a college player in that they’ll reach the majors much quicker than Holliday. This current Nats team’s competitive window, as it’s configured, is designed for 2026-2028/29, when we start losing our core to free agency (Abrams, Garcia, Gore, Irvin). Clearly, the major league team will need all the help it can get to become competitive. Having Holliday reach the majors around 2029 won’t help much in improving the team, but rather keeping us treading water in replacing Abrams’ production.

    Will

    7 Apr 25 at 6:26 pm

  4. Suggest you get over your Elijah Green angst. As Boss detailed there is no lock college player. The consensus best position player prospect, Jace LaViolette has, wait for it…. “swing and miss” concerns. There only other college position player that could even be considered for the #1 overall pick is Aiva Arquette from Oregon State and his tools are limited accross the board (no exceptional tool) and likely will be moved to second base.

    As detailed in the most recent update the college pitchers have regressed. Doyle has the most upside, but as Boss noted he ultimately become a MLB reliever. Just can’t use the #1 overall pick for a reliever. There isn’t any college player in the group that is guaranteed to “help” in the 2026-29 time frame you outlined.

    Nats should use the #1 pick with the most upside as it would be crazy to pass on a potential superstar for a #3 starter or a relief pitcher. By all accounts, Holliday has the highest ceiling of any player in the draft, and the Nats can’t pass on the best talent in the draft because Elijah Green just struck out again. Two different players. Not fair to assume Holliday will fail to progress like Elijah Green.

    Pilchard

    8 Apr 25 at 11:29 am

  5. I also agree that Holliday <> Green. I think more and more the regression of all other candidates is going to clear a path for Holliday 1-1.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.fcgi?overall_pick=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_jc=0

    that’s the list of 1-1 picks in history. Lots of HS kids in there who turned out just fine. And some misses. You pick the BPA and run with it. Its a bummer for sure there’s no Skenes/Harper/Strasburg/ARod in the draft.

    Todd Boss

    8 Apr 25 at 11:44 am

  6. I think it would make sense to be clear eyed about the strengths and weaknesses of our player development system and that those patterns could affect who is the best player available is for the Nats, specifically.

    But “swing and miss issues” is too broad and afflicts too high a percentage of prospects for it to be in any way disqualifying. Is it swing decision stuff? Is it identifying offspeed? Is it catching up to velocity? Punting on guys with swing and miss issues is like punting on 80% of hitting prospects.

    Incidentally, my main worry about Holliday isn’t exactly his swing and miss issues – all these potential picks look like they have flaws – my worry is that he fits into a pattern of overhyping bloodlines, and that makes me somewhat discount the favorable scouting reports.

    SMS

    8 Apr 25 at 3:23 pm

  7. SMS, you raise an interesting point about the prevalence of the sons of former baseball players in the game. But is it really something to be avoided? Yeah, it was silly expending an annual draft pick to pick our pitching coach’s son at the time, but a weirdly high number of MLB’s best players are sons of big leaguers: Vlad Guerrero, Fernando Tatis, Jackson Holliday, Bobby Witt, Bo Bichette, our own Luis Garcia, KeBryan Hayes, Cody Bellinger, Jacob Wilson, the Leiter cousins (Mark and Jack, sons of brothers Mark and Al).

    And it’s not a new phenomenon. You’ve got Bonds, Griffeys, Alous, Boones, Bells, Ripkens, Cruz’s, Armas’s, Alomar’s in decades past. There’s a weirdly strong connection between your likelihood of being a professional baseball player if your father was one.

    The problem with taking the offspring of baseball players is that the ones we’ve taken just haven’t been very good (Darren Baker, Lombardozzi, McCatty, Menhart, Boone, Randa, Tapani, Milacki, etc.)

    Will

    9 Apr 25 at 7:29 am

  8. @will; great point. there’s definitely a difference between taking the offspring of a MLBer who’s a consensus top5 pick (Holliday or Guerrero Jr) versus a “pick you up in the 15th round as a favor) offspring pick.

    What I like about this year’s Holliday offspring is the fact that he’s NOT his little brother. He’s not a lithe SS hit first candidate with speed. He’s a bopper who’s still playing the dirt but who features more like his dad. That tells me evaluators are not just assuming he’s Jackson Holliday 2.0. He reminds me more of the relationship between BJ Upton 2nd overall pick in 2002 and brother Juston Upton (1st overall pick in 2005); completely different playing styles and body makeups.

    Swing and Miss is what it is in the modern game. Do you know how many times Aaron Judge struck out last year? Of course not, because he hit 56 homers and had a 10war season, so nobody gives a sh*t about the fact that he struck out 171 times in 158 games for a 30% K/AB rate. Now, you swing and miss and don’t produce big power numbers? Then you’re a massive failure with a questionable plate discipline.

    Todd Boss

    9 Apr 25 at 8:38 am

  9. I hear you on examples like the Guerreros and the Alous, but it’s a little too early to count Jackson Holliday, the Leiters and Jacob Wilson in the win column. And Garcia’s dad and Bellinger’s dad were below replacement, plus a bunch of the other relatives you listed were journeymen or role players. That’s not what I’m talking about.

    I’m talking about the way that hype imbalances and our attention economy can drive motivated reasoning and unconscious biases in scouting.

    I tried to build a dataset looking over recent top-5 draft picks, but it’s pretty inconclusive. Legacy busts include Druw Jones and (sort of) Elijah Green. But Witt is a star. And the jury is still out on Holliday and Leiter. Plus, there were lots of non-legacy picks that also haven’t shown all that great in their early going.

    So I guess I have to admit that it’s just an unsubstantiated hypothesis for now. Fair enough – but I still think that, if it looks like there’s a tie for BPA, I’d draft the other guy.

    SMS

    9 Apr 25 at 10:53 am

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