Nationals Arm Race

Jesus Flores' general reaction to his injury troubles for the past two seasons. Photo Toni Sandys/Washington Post

MASN Nats beat writer Ben Goessling touched on this same issue back in December and came to the same conclusion that I have: The Washington Nationals may have some catching depth to spare when April 1st rolls around.  We have Ivan Rodriguez and Wilson Ramos as the incumbents (having DFA’d last year’s backup Wil Nieves, since signed by Milwaukee).  But we also have former starter Jesus Flores coming back from injury and seemingly healthy.   Plus our #1 hitting prospect not named Bryce Harper is Derek Norris, also a catcher.

At the end of the spring, I think we’re going to see Flores winning out the 2nd catcher position (by virtue of his age, his experience with the team, and the memory of his 130 OPS+ numbers he put up in 2009 before getting hurt).  But there’s little value in having one of the better Catching prospects in all of baseball languishing in Syracuse while we wait to see if Pudge or Flores suffers an injury.

I can see the Nats moving Ramos or Flores if the right deal comes about.  But, the Nats probably need an entire spring training of production out of both guys to prove to other teams that they are healthy and viable candidates.  Flores might be a tough sell to teams since he missed most of the last two seasons and seems brittle … but his numbers when he’s healthy are middle-of-the-order.  Meanwhile the entire league knows what Ramos is capable of and he may be a better trade candidate.

Also factoring in is the development of Derek Norris; at this point we’re all assuming he’s going to start in AA and be ready to take over one of the two MLB catcher spots when Pudge’s contract expires after this season.  If Norris takes a huge step back or suffers a season-ending injury, then nobody is going anywhere and the Nats will plan for Ramos/Flores platoon in 2012.

The Nats still have needs at the MLB level for 2011 though; you can argue that we really could improve at LF, CF and in the starting rotation.  Meanwhile, there are several teams out there going into 2011 with question marks at catcher.  Looking at these depth charts league wide, here’s some possible trade partners (barring injury to existing guys of course):

• LA Angels: Jeff Mathis and Hank Conger are their current catcher starters.  Who?  Conger is very young but neither hit the Mendoza line for 2010.  But the Angels so badly bungled this off season they may be reticent to make any more trades.
• LA Dodgers: Gave up on Russell Martin, so going into 2011 with journeyman Rod Barajas (career .239 hitter) and AJ Ellis (turns 30 in april and has a grand total of 141 major league plate appearances to his credit).  They have starter depth (Padilla looks to be odd man out and would improve our rotation).
• Boston: Jarrod Saltalamacchia is listed as the starter over the ancient Jason Varitek; neither guy can actually hit and both are defensive liabilities.  Boston is clearly making a playoff push and may want a top-end defensive guy behind the plate for the playoffs.
• Colorado: Chris Iannetta only hit .197 last year but has shown glimpses of power in the past.  Colorado let their 2010 starter (Soto) walk but they may have a hole at the Catcher position.
• Milwaukee: we could convince the Brewers to upgrade from up and comer Jonathan Lucroy for their 2011 playoff push.  But they’ve emptied their farm system and probably have little we would want in return.
• NY Yankees: are they really expecting Russell Martin to be the savior?  Or is there going to be a C/DH platoon with him and Posada (more likely the answer).
• NY Mets: catcher has been a thorn in this team ever since the Nats “stole” Flores from them in the rule5 draft in 2006.  Now they’re going into 2011 with the very young Josh Thole as the starter.  But the Mets are a total mess right now and probably don’t make any more moves until the Madoff lawsuits are settled.
• Kansas City, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Houston teams that *could* use catcher depth but which would never purchase it given their current rebuilding status (or cheapness as a franchise).

It should be interested to see if a trade surfaces early on into the season.  We’ll see.