Nationals Arm Race

Unlike in years past, the Nats rookie league in 2010 existed in large part to provide rehab starts for guys coming back from injury.  By my count, 14 of the 56 starts in GCL last year were either rehab starts or “extended spring training” starts for guys that were headed for upper levels.  This may have been due to the lack of young starting pitcher prospects available to us, since the starts we did get from prospects in the GCL (Hanks, Meza, KLopez, King) were as unimpressive as the starts we got out of Vermont.

That being said, here’s how the GCL staff ended 2010 (GCL usually goes with a 6-man rotation)

Rotation: Hanks 20, Meza 20, KLopez 20, King 20, Encarnacion 21
(rotation order: King, Meza, Hanks, Encarnacion, KLopez
bullpen: MRivera, Baez, Gallo, MRivera, Dupuis, Santiago, Navarro, Gerler, Serino, Meister, Mower, Grace
spot starts: Baez 18, Grace 21
promotions: Hansen, Barthmaier, CMartinez, OHernandez, Ott
up-and-back:
demotions:
dl: Garrett, Karns, Manno
cut/retired:

Livan’s 1/2 brother Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez spent some time baffling 19 year olds in the GCL before moving on up the system.  He was signed (in all likelihood) to grease the skids for signing his compatriot Yunesky Maya, and quit the AA team in a huff when he didn’t get a Sept 1 callup.  Personally I would have called him up to see what he had; he’s an ageless mechanic who very well may have entertained the bullpen for a few weeks and a couple dozen meaningless games.

Here’s the rest of the guys who got starts in the GCL:

• Tyler Hanks: 20yr old 17th round juco pick, a former teammate of Bryce Harpers.  Decent numbers (4-1, 3.59 era) in a mixture of relief and starting appearances.  2011 Outlook: He’ll probably get a shot at the short-A rotation.
• Christian Meza 20yr old 25th round juco signing in 2010 who put up some of the best numbers of our GCL rotation.  1.52 era and 23 Ks in 23 2/3 innings to earn a quick callup to short-A.  He’s a slighter framed lefty who could be a diamond in the rough.  2011 outlook: he seems destined for the bullpen, so I’ll guess he moves to Hagerstown’s bullpen.
• Kelvin Lopez 20yr old international signing who lead the team in IP for 2010.  Not very impressive numbers though; 4.44 era, 26/12 k/bb in 42 innings.  2011 outlook: based on his age I’d guess he features in the short-A rotation competition.
• Brandon King 20yr old 27th round high schooler in 2009 who had just awful numbers in the GCL in 2010.  10.32 era but only 11 innings pitched.  I cannot remember if he was injured at some point between now and his draft date but seem to remember that he was.  2011 outlook: We gave him a rather large bonus ($250k, or about 4th round money) so we’ll probably continue to test him out.  I can see him back in GCL for 2011.
• Pedro Encarnacion 21yr old DSL grad who had mediocre numbers with little power (he had nearly as many Ks as BBs).  2011 outlook: may be near the end of his Nats career.  Perhaps converted to a bullpen guy in short- or low-A.
• Gregory Baez 18yr old lefty DSL graduate.  He’s tall, skinny and throws hard (40 ks in 38 innings).  2011 Outlook: stays in extended spring for a bit and then gives short-A rotation a try.
• Matthew Grace 21yr old lefty starter out of UCLA, an 8th round draft pick in 2010.  Not the greatest numbers in the GCL or in 2 starts in Vermont in 2010, but he’s a better pedigree than the others.  2011 outlook: will be in the low-A rotation.

For 2011, there are two big names from the 2010 draft A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray that probably start in the GCL.  Both are high-ceiling high school arms that the Nats paid good money to buy out of college commitments and both should be interesting watches.  Will they end up like McGeary, Smoker and Willems as high school flame-outs?  The Nats don’t have a single example of a high school arm panning out since they moved to DC, so the odds are against them (this sounds very Billy Beane-esque, as his Moneyball quotes frequently insulted those GMs that did draft high school arms early).  Suffice it to say, the risks are high with any high schooler and especially with pitchers.

The 2011 draft is supposed to be deep and talented, especially with college arms.  Here’s hoping the Nats fare well and re-stock the lower leagues with arms.