Is this the year Jordan Zimmermann makes the leap? Photo dcist.com/(AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)
The Nats spring training games so far have certainly seemed more promising this year than last. Beat reporters talk about a more professional attitude, they talk about there being more talent in camp, and Riggleman talks specifically about having to “cut major league pitchers” when 25-man decision time rolls around.
At the risk of over-analyzing the first 6 spring training games, lets talk about some of the good, the worrisome and the “yet to be determined” performances of some key members of the pitching corps. For reference, here’s a quick link to the Grapefruit league pitching stats for the team.
The Good
- Livan, Zimmermann, Marquis: our 1-2-3 rotation members all looked decent to good in their first ST starts. Marquis faced a weaker lineup but got lots of ground-outs (good indication for his sinker). Zimmermann faced a tougher lineup of first-stringer Cardinals but worked his way out of jams.
- Maya and Detwiler: starters-in-waiting both had decent first outings. Maya has looked crisp, Detwiler’s new mechanics are giving him more bite on his fastball, and both may very well muscle their way into the rotation discussion. Detwiler contined his good work today, getting 5 K’s in 3 innings against a strong Braves lineup to continue to put himself in the discussion for the rotation.
- rule 5 pickup Broderick: 3ip and only two hits to show for it, albeit pitching later in games against scrubs. Still, one has to wonder if Broderick can muscle his way into the bullpen discussion.
The Bad
- Chad Gaudin: I realize that a 27-yr old hard-throwing player on a minor-league deal would be like found-gold if he pans out (sorry for that pun), but I don’t get testing him out at the expense of other arms in camp. That being said, Gaudin has not looked great so far. He’s had two up and down sessions, possibly undone by some untimely errors in the field.
- Garrett Mock: I am not the only blogger in the Natmosphere who cannot quite understand the obsession the coaches and managers have with Mock. Again this year, we’re hearing statements like, “2nd best arm in the organization” [behind Strasburg]. Here’s Mock’s first outing: 2/3 of an inning, 2 hits, 3 walks, 0 strikeouts with his vaunted “arm,” and 5 runs (only 1 earned because of an error in the field). At some point you have to disregard the potential and focus on the results, and make a decision on those results. Mock has been disappointing fans and coaches for years, and I hope we don’t overlook some other prospect to give Mock his next opportunity.
- Drew Storen: Two outings, two innings pitched and two shellackings for our closer-in-waiting. Not a good start for Storen, who needs to show some dominance to wrest control of the closer job away from 103-mph throwing Henry Rodriguez (who appears in the next section). I’ve read someone postulating that Storen may start the season in the minors; i doubt that based on his 113 era+ figure and 8.9 k/9 numbers last year. But if he wants that closer job, he needs to step up.
- Chien-Ming Wang: *sigh*. Another multi-million dollar contract on 100% spec, another spring training where it looks like this poor guy is done. He’s reportedly only reaching the low 80s and had to cut his last session short because of “tightness” in his surgically repaired shoulder. This may be more good money after bad.
The Incomplete/Unknown/Concerning because we don’t know anything yet
- Tom Gorzelanny: I guess I can understand when a guy gets sick and it sets him back. But when your two main competitors for the 5th rotation spot are showing up for ST with crisp stuff and a good work ethic, and you cannot make it into a game because you’re so far behind … well you better step it up when you do get some innings.
- Elvin Ramirez and Henry Rodriguez. I’ve gone off on this rant before in various comment sections. But here goes again; how in the hell do these baseball players possibly suffer from these Visa issues year after year? It really seems simple to me: if you know you need to be in another country, FOR YOUR JOB, on Feb 1st, aren’t you preparing all your paperwork and getting everything in line to make said trip on time? It boggles my mind that guys are delayed for weeks. Spring Training is only 2 months long; if you are a pitcher and you miss the first two weeks, there is NO way you can catch up in time to really show what you have. As far as the team goes, it is doubly insulting since Rodriguez has no options and HAS to make this team, so in reality he could have pulled a Brett Favre and skipped the entirety of spring training and basically still had a job. Meanwhile, rule-5 pickup Ramirez might as well be returned to the Mets now. How can he possibly out-pitch one of Storen, Clippard, Burnett, Coffey, Rodriguez, Slaten or Balester right now to make this team? Plus, in reality he also has to outpitch Broderick (another rule5 guy) and Gorzelanny (out of options if he loses out on the 5th rotation spot) to make this team.
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=mlb&subScope=teamCode&teamPosCode=MON&statType=2&timeSubFrame=23&sitSplit=&venueID=&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1
It looks more and more like the Willingham trade was just a salary dump, no matter how much the F.O. says otherwise. To trade for an iffy relief pitcher with NO options is just plain dumb otherwise.
This leaves the bullpen with 3 arms that need to be hidden on the one true strength of the team or be lost to claims.
In short, Todd, I completely agree with you!
Mark L
7 Mar 11 at 8:57 am
I think the Willingham trade was less a “salary dump” as it was Rizzo saying to himself, “Willingham is a god-awful defender who can’t stay healthy and I want someone who looks like a track star in left field every day even if it costs me 2 wins a year in offense.” In that respect, since Rizzo didn’t value Willingham he was willing to take whatever he could get. Yeah Rodriguez is out of options and that hamstrings his ability to stick, but he does throw 103mph and may be worth the experiment. Don’t forget too that we got a former 1st round draft pick who put up a .300/.400/.500 slash line in AA last year and has 30 homer/20sb capabilities as a natural eventual Willingham replacement.
(besides; how can a team be “dumping salary” when they’re signing $126M contracts and actively trying to sign other 8-9 figure deals?)
Bullpen probably ends up being Burnett, Slaten, Clippard, Storen, Balester, HRodriguez, Coffey. Of those, Slaten, Storen and Balester have options. But of the rest, we’re assuming Burnett and Clippard are solid and that Coffey would be expendable/replaceable as a veteran right-hander (kinda like Bruney last year) if he doesn’t work out. So we’re really only “hiding” one guy. If one of the rule-5 guys works out though? We’re in trouble. Because it isn’t clear who among those 7 goes.
The guy without options that bugs me more is Gorzelanny. I suppose it is possible (acceptable?) that we traded away three decent prospects for the chance to let him compete with Maya, Detwiler and Wang for the #5 rotation spot. But here’s the thing; if he doesn’t get the job, then he can’t be sent down either. He would then have to go to the bullpen and presumably replace Balester as the long man/spot starter. Balester has options but also has value with his live arm and improving numbers in the MLB. If the Nats really though Wang was healthy and that Maya was improving and that Detwiler was going to live up to his promise … why sign a journeyman veteran without options to compete as well?
Todd Boss
7 Mar 11 at 9:58 am
Gaudin looked really good for 3 innings on Saturday, and those 2 errors really hurt in the 4th. (Of course, one of those was his own … it was a terrible throw over to 1st. AWFUL.) It’s not clear whether he wasn’t able to come back from the errors or whether he hit his pitch limit for the day. Based on what I saw in the first 3 innings, though, I can’t completely count him out. I’d put him in “incomplete/too early to tell.”
@Todd Boss, I’d expect Stammen in the pen, rather than Balester.
SpringfieldFan
7 Mar 11 at 10:48 am
I’d probably concur on Gaudin, except that I can’t possibly imagine him getting the 5th rotation spot over Gorzelanny (options), Maya ($8M contract and looking great in DSL), Detwiler (1st round draft pick with franchise investment) or Wang (sunk costs from last year and this year, plus 19-game winning pedigree if healthy). I guess competition is competition. I had to re-look at his past numbers to get a better sense of who he really is. One year full time starting and pitched decently in a pitcher’s park in Oak but then he was awful starting at an even better pitcher’s park in San Diego. Decent numbers out of the pen last year for NY Yankees in a tough place to pitch. Who is he going to be? He signed a minor-league deal so presumably he’d take up a rotation spot in Syracuse if he doesn’t make the team. Or maybe he wouldn’t and would demand a release?
Stammen vs Balester. I say Balester for two reasons: 1. he was pretty lights out last year in the same role, including 28ks in 21 innings. I think you want a strikeout guy with good “stuff” in a middle-relief mode, and you want a reliever that can get a punchout in a bases-loaded 1-out jam in the 6th. Stammen isn’t that guy. 85 ks in 128 innings and he gives up a lot of hits. I know Stammen’s sabre stats are better than his ERA/WHIP but management doesn’t know that, nor do they care. All they saw was a guy who got blown out in a few starts, failed to reach the 6th inning half the time (10 of 19 starts) and only gave them a “quality start” 42% of the time. By way of comparison, 40% of Olsen’s starts were QS and 38% of Marquis were QS. Livan was 66%.
2nd; i think despite all that anti-Stammen stuff I just wrote the team feels he could still be a starter. Look at someone like Livan or Maddox; you don’t have to have a 95mph fastball to start and win in this league. Stammen’s got decent ancillary pitches and the arm strengh to go deep into games. Most of the times when he gets blown up he’s had 5 scoreless innings and the “one big inning.” I’ll bet he goes into the AAA rotation to work on how to mitigate the big inning.
Todd Boss
7 Mar 11 at 11:08 am
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