Gorzelanny warming up; the closest we've seen of him on the mound. Photo: Copyright Ed Wolfstein
As I said in my good/bad/indifferent post over the weekend, I cannot fault a guy for getting sick at an inopportune time. But newly acquired Tom Gorzelanny needs to get caught up to his competition for the 5th rotation spot very quickly, before he loses out on the competition altogether. When two of your main competitors for the 5th rotation spot are showing up in Viera with crisp stuff and a good work ethic, and you cannot make it into a game because you’re so far behind … well you better step it up when you do get some innings.
I’m beginning to wonder though; Why did the Nats make the Gorzelanny acquisition? He’s out of options, meaning that if he does NOT win the 5th starter role he either has to go to the bullpen or be exposed to waivers to pass him through to AAA. Both scenarios are bad for the team; Gorzelanny would take away a bullpen spot from another deserving candidate if he is kept (likely Balester in the long man/spot starter role), and odds are that he’d be claimed if we exposed him to waivers, basically meaning we gave up 3 prospects for a few weeks of his Spring Training time. Plus, Gorzelanny’s splits as a reliever aren’t really that promising. The number of innings he’s pitched in relief over the past few years are probably not enough to make a judgement but he certainly hasn’t been immediately lights out in the role.
Meanwhile, the rest of the competitors for the #5 spot are taking big steps ahead. Maya looked great in the DWL and has looked good so far this spring. Detwiler‘s last outing was dominant, with lots of strikeouts and scouts raving about the speed on his pitches. Gaudin‘s overall numbers look bad but he pitched 3 strong innings against the Yankees. Only Wang seems to be out of the 5th starter competition for now (he’ll likely spend more time on the DL, which is fine for our roster construction purposes since he won’t burn a 25-man slot).
I suppose it is possible (acceptable?) that we traded away three prospects for the chance to let him compete with Maya, Detwiler, Gaudin and Wang for the #5 rotation spot. But here’s the thing; if the Nats really though Wang was healthy and that Maya was improving and that Detwiler was going to live up to his promise … why sign a journeyman veteran without options, knowing that his inflexibility would affect the rest of your team’s construction?
First of all, Gaudin doesn’t belong in this conversation. He may be kind to animals, walk little old ladies across the street and be a fine human being, but he’s not a starting quality ML pitcher. For the past two years Yankee fans have referred to Gaudin as “lost cause” (he comes into games that are out of hand, or thanks to his participation about to become so). He’s better than Chico, Martis, Atilano and Martin – but not by much. Don’t be fooled by three good innings against the Yankees – it’s only three innings, and the Yankees did score eight runs in the fourth.
I think the premise of your argument is flawed because you’re saying, based on what we think NOW, the Nationals acted foolishly THEN. I don’t believe that the Nationals were willing to go into the season counting on the idea that Wang was healthy, Maya improving and Detwiler was finally going to live up to his potential as a #2 overall pick. That’s the baseball equivalent of drawing to an inside straight – yeah, it works every now and then, but you’d have to be an idiot to try to make a living doing it. Rizzo’s not an idiot. In a best case scenario the Nationals have to deal with the “problem” of having too much talent. That’s a lot better than not getting Gorzo and ignoring the very real possibility that your assumptions don’t play out and you don’t have enough talent (paging Levale Speigner, etc).
There’s still 3 1/2 weeks until Opening Day, and a fifth starter won’t be needed until a week after that. Pitching tends to sort itself out, and Gorzo still has time to get ready (and one or more of the others may get hurt/struggle). And if everyone is ready and more or less even, the player with the option gets sent down. It happens on every team, because no team will voluntarily lessen their overall talent level if they can avoid it.
John C.
7 Mar 11 at 1:08 pm
I agree with you on Gaudin; it is only because the beat reporters keep including him as an option (my inference then being that if the beat reporters report it, management must be thinking it) that I mention him as well.
I see what you’re saying. It is easy to judge a move after the fact. But the same criticism of the Gorzelanny issue (with respect to lack of options) can be made of the Willingham deal and Henry Rodriguez. We gave up our 3rd best hitter of last year for a wild relief pitcher with no options and a guy without a major league at bat. If Rodriguez can’t find the plate, he’ll be lost and we’ll have very very little to show for the deal. The Gorzelanny trade bounty was less important (I liked AJ Morris but he wasn’t a top end prospect, Burgess is blocked for the next 7 years and Hicks is a 20-yr old question mark) but still it represents farm system depth and future options for something right now.
I think the gist of my argument is; “if you trade for a guy with zero options and zero flexibility … then you open yourself up to being burned badly if/when the moves don’t quite pan out.”
Ask yourself this; if Maya or Detwiler “look” better than Gorzelanny (but both have options) and get sent down to give him a bunch of mediocre starts in April … would you support that decision?
Todd Boss
7 Mar 11 at 1:33 pm
I get your point, I just think Rizzo is playing the hand he’s dealt as best he can. With any move there are card falls that win and those that lose. On the Willingham trade, I could just as easily say that he could get hurt (again – he’s never played a full season in the majors) and is a free agent after this year – so the A’s could get essentially nothing for a 103mph reliever with closer potential and a solid ML outfielder, both under Nationals’ controls for years. If that happens, should the A’s feel stupid?
So yes, the same criticism can be made – hey, this trade might backfire! As an executive, you use your best judgment and recognize that some ARE going to backfire – it’s the nature of the beast.
When it comes to Gorzelanny, if he’s even they (Maya and Detwiler) are leavin’ (for Syracuse) – and there’s not a team in MLB that would do it differently. When it comes to “looking” better, well, how much better, and by what measurement? It’s not just statistics, because randomness comes into play as well. You have to see who is more comfortable, throwing strikes, who the opposition was for any particular appearance.
I would have no problem with Gorzo making the roster ahead of Maya and/or Detwiler if the difference wasn’t all that great (and Maya was a bit shaky today, four hits in two+ innings, although he got through only giving up one run on the solo HR). How much better they have to look to beat him out is the million dollar question. If Gorzo gets shelled all over the place and Maya and Detwiler are aces, it’s an easy question. How about this – I’m OK with Rizzo making the decision, and I find it hard to believe that he’s going to make a decision that I can’t support.
John C.
7 Mar 11 at 3:26 pm
In the comments below someone referred to the Willingham deal as a “salary dump,” which I didn’t entirely agree with (for some of your same points; he’s an injury risk and a defensive liability). I think any trade can be defended or be picked apart by a devil’s advocate.
Arguing FOR the Gorzelanny trade; Burgess was never making this team, Morris already lost a starter spot and Hicks is a kid. We got a MLB starter for 3 nickels we found on the floor. Arguing against Gorzelanny trade: $2M for a 5th starter who may not be any better than our existing $2M/year guy in Maya, or the min-salary guy in Detwiler who has no options left, hampering roster flexibility.
I think the best part of this is that the Nats of late have shown they have the gumption to make a decision on a guy who is floundering or underperforming. Bergmann got DFA’d on 4/15/10 last year. 2 weeks in! the year before Ledezma and Shell were DFA’d on 4/19. So, if a move is needing to be made they’ll make it, quickly. If Marquis blows his first 5 starts like he did last year, you have to think they’ll summarily cut him.
Todd Boss
7 Mar 11 at 4:18 pm
And of course you continue to miss the point? Gorzelanny is a ***power pitcher*** who can throw between 92-94 into the late innings. He has proven to be as effective as Livo and Lannan as a LETF HANDED STARTER. NOT to Todd Boss: John Lannan, Livan Hernandez, Chad Gaudin, Jason Marquis, JD Martin, Luis Atilano: ALL SOFT TOSSERS?
How many LEFT-HANDED STARTING POWER pitchers did the Nats have before Gorzelanny? ONE and he was questionable and his pitch velocity was “soft tossing” last year? IN FACT HOW MANY LEFT HANDED power pitching RELIEVERS DO THE NATS HAVE? HOW MANY?
This is why BOTH Gorzelanny and Detwiler both make the team and probably the rotation over Guadin, Balester, and even Storen!!! etc., etc. …
LEFT HANDED does that ring a bell yet? Sheesh!
anonymous
7 Mar 11 at 6:18 pm
“Gorzelanny can pitch into the late innings.” In 23 starts in 2010 he pitched 130 innings, averaging 5 2/3 per game. In those 23 starts he pitched into the 8th or 9th exactly zero times. 4 of 23 times he finished 7 innings but it usually took him 110-120 pitches to do so. He was routinely in the 100+ pitch level after 5 innings, putting him in the same category as Mock or Balester; guys who throw too many pitches to get done what better pitchers can do with less.
“Gorzelanny is a power pitcher.” His opening game last year he averaged 91.2 mph with a peak of 92.8. In arguably his best game of the season (may 2nd, when he had 10Ks in 7 innings) he averaged 90.4 with a peak of 92.4. For the season; 119 K’s in 136 innings; good K/9 numbers. Not sure if I totally agree with the sentiment that he’s a power pitcher though. He’s certainly a harder thrower than Lannan … but power isn’t everything. Numbers from Brooks’ baseball pitch f/x.
In the bullpen we have Burnett and Slaten, meaning we’re better off in terms of left-handed options than a lot of teams. Burnett isn’t a power pitcher but he’s throwing nearly as hard as Gorzelanny (pitch f/x from a mid-season game; avg 90.3, peak of 90.3). And, Clippard pitches a lot like a lefty because of his incredibly effective change up.
Yes, having a second lefty starter would be great. But in my opinion, i’d rather have a guy who effectively shuts down teams no matter which arm he throws with. I’ll say it now; i’d rather have Balester, who IS a power pitcher routinely hitting 95-96, as a long man/spot starter. He showed he could handle that role last year and I think he’ll just grow in that role this year.
My point was simple; The acquisition of Gorzelanny without minor league options has tied the hands of the organization, much as trading for Henry Rodriguez has. With no options, he’s essentially guaranteed a spot on the team at the possible expense of someone more deserving. Which means we run the risk of putting out an inferior team not becuase we don’t have the personnel, but because we are forced to give a spot to the guy who can’t be exposed to waivers. I really hope he turns out to be closer to his 2007 numbers than his 2010 numbers. But if he doesn’t I hope we make a change.
Todd Boss
7 Mar 11 at 8:34 pm
Sheesh where are you pulling this stuff from anyway sources?
First Gorzelanny had ELEVEN QUALITY STATRS. 11. Count ’em. 11?. Right? A left handed starter with 12 and he only started 23 times? That’s John Lannan precisely NOT Mock or Balester? You have to go DEEP INTO GAMES, at LEAST SIX INNINGS without allowing more than 2 earned runs. SIX INNINGS right? In today’s baseball hardly any starter pitches into the eighth or ninth inning. How many did times did Lannan get there? Livo? Even Strasburg. That’s more on the manager than the pitcher. And again, who else on this team beside Lannan and Livo had more than 5 quality starts. AND wait for it : HE’s LEFT HANDED?
L-E-F-T H-A-N-D-E-D? And he is a starter. Averaging 5.7 innings per start and 96 pitches. His pitch count was over 100 11 times and 120 twice. How many Nats starters did that?
Slaten and Burnett? You’re kidding right? Either that or you aren’t paying attention? Gorzelanny had 7.9K’s/9 innings? Did they? In 2009 he had 9.4K/9. Did they?
Your arguments make no sense. The guy is a power pitcher who has had some injury issues since he was misused in Pittsburgh in 2007. He seems to have recovered from them. His velocity is going up. He now throws between 92-94 as a starter.
peric
8 Mar 11 at 3:49 am
In response to the title of the article, I believe Gorzelanny has more value to us than the “prospects” we gave up. Burgess was always a project, and became expendable with the acquisitions of Harper and Werth. Morris is nothing but a sinker/slider middle relief guy with a funky delivery and injury questions. Hicks is a high school project along the lines Smoker and McGeary who’s about to be passed by the likes of Cole and Ray.
Wouldn’t we have loved to have an arm like Gorzelanny in the rotation any of the past four seasons? He would have been an instant upgrade over any #5 starter the Nats have ever thrown out there. If we don’t have enough room for all our capable starters, that’s just about the best problem in baseball to have, and we can deal from a position of strength (or at least depth..) for a prospect or two that we can actually use.
Neil
8 Mar 11 at 8:02 am
People who discount A.J Morris weren’t paying attention. He spent most of 2010 nursing an injury at the F.O. instructions, that was finally healed around Labor Day. In the Instructional League in the fall, he was the best pitcher there by most accounts. Not saying he’s a Strasburg, but he’s definitely not a spare part. He’s the one guy in the trade who might come back to haunt the Nats.
To reaffirm my contention that Willingham was a salary dump, Elias Rating System had him as a Top 50 hitter in the MAJORS, which Werth was not. When the Nats signed Werth, they major backloaded the contract so that they would have “flexibility” (their words) to sign anybody else.
Mark L
8 Mar 11 at 9:06 am
Everything I quote is easily found on either baseball-reference or pitch f/x.
Perhaps you don’t know the definition of a “quality start.” Google it. It is 6 or more innings with THREE or fewer earned runs. Not two. So a “quality start” means you could have had a 4.50 era on the day. In the QS % category Gorzelanny achieved it 11/23 or 48%. By way of comparison, Livan had a 66% quality start figure, Lannan 48%, Olsen 40% and Stammen 42%. Strasburg only did it 50% of te time since he got yanked in the middle of the 5th a bunch of times as he reached 100 pitch count limit.
Look, even Marquis had 5 quality starts last year.
Lannan pitched to the 7th or past it 6 times last year. Livan did it 13 times out of 33 starts. I want to see starters who regularly pitch into the 7th inning. Yes I agree few pitchers pitch into the 8th inning with regularity. But I don’t want a bunch of starters who need 110 pitches to complete the 5th inning.
I pulled pitch f/x data for Gorzelanny from three games last year. Opening day, his best game on the season in may, and a mid-july game. Perhaps you can argue that he wasn’t quite “warmed up” on opening day, but he was actually throwing faster that he was in May. A guy’s velocity in mid July should be as good as it gets. I don’t see any numbers close to 94. When he throws in games this week i’ll be very curious to see the radar gun, because I don’t think he throws that hard.
I didn’t really mean to get into a detailed discussion about the guy and whether he can throw the ball 92.8 or 94.1 mph. That doesn’t matter to me. A guy can throw 100mph but if it doesn’t move and if he can’t spot it, then he won’t be successful. So its less about the speed and more about the overall package. Yes he’s lefty and that has value, especially in a division with a team like Philadelphia (very left-handed hitter friendly). But that isn’t the entire story. My post was crititical of the roster-inflexibility that he brought over, and how it *could* lead the team to keep him on the 25-man roster even if he didn’t merit it. It remains to be seen whether i’m right or wrong.
Todd Boss
8 Mar 11 at 9:24 am
Fair points. I’ve said almost the exact same things about the prospects we gave up. In the grand scheme of things (outside of Morris, who I really liked ever since his days at Kansas State) we gave up players we’d never use or who are so far away its a complete coin-flip whether they make it or not.
Gorzelanny absolutely would have been an upgrade over any 5th starter we’ve run out there going back probably to 2005. But its 2011, and he has no options so we pretty much HAVE to put him on the 25-man roster or else the transaction turns into charity to the Cubs. I feel like its the same situation we had with the bullpen in 2009, when we broke camp with these 7 relievers: Beimel, Hinckley, Ledezma, Shell, Tavarez, Rivera and Hanrahan. Half those guys were on the team not becuase they had earned it but because their competitors had minor league options. What happened? Half these guys got shelled, Ledezma and Shell were released 3 weeks into the season, Hinckley soon after, and Hanrahan posted an 8+ era. Not that the team was really going anywhere in 2009 but it was embarassing.
Trading our surplus; I’ve heard beat reporters say things like, “oh well we’ll just trade so-and-so before the season starts.” But spring training trades are pretty rare; i’ve only read about one or two in the past weeks and they were incredibly minor. I don’t see it happening. *Maybe* we flip Flores to a team that needs a catcher before the season starts. But our surplus pitchers are headed to AAA (or waivers or the DL in the case of Wang). Now, we used 14 different starters last year so yes it is great that we have the surplus. But not in my opinion at the expense of putting out the best 5 guys to start the season.
Todd Boss
8 Mar 11 at 9:34 am
I hear what you are saying about having your “best 5 guys” on the team to start the season – but spring training isn’t the sole way to judge who are the best 5 guys. Spring training stats are often a mirage, for a lot of different reasons. Gorzelanny has more of a track record than Detwiler or Maya, and that + the options situation helps keep him ahead of them unless being completely and thoroughly outpitched. We’re not there yet.
And however it turns out, I understand why Rizzo traded for Gorzelanny. I hope that it’s a terrible problem for the Nationals because they end up with eight healthy and effective starters on the team.
John C.
8 Mar 11 at 1:28 pm
Can’t wait to read reports of Gorzelanny’s first start. Thursday per beat reporters. I read something (somewhere) this morning that said kinda in passing that he hasn’t been throwing because of “recovering from illness” and a “sore shoulder.” That second point makes me really nervous. How does a guy suddenly have a sore shoulder when he’s only been at Spring Training for a few days?
We used 14 starters last year; having 8 good ones to choose from isn’t a bad problem at all. Agreed.
Todd Boss
8 Mar 11 at 1:49 pm
Again, Buheler, hullo Buehler? He’s left handed. He’s a power pitcher. He can start effectively. See the below to understand what he and Detwiler will mean to this team if both make the rotation with 19 games against the fab four and the Phillies way over-to-one-side left-handed lineup.
Shenin: “Well, the wireless has been fixed in the press box, so we’re good to go on the live blog. By the way, I just had lunch with three scouts I’ve known for a long time, and all them were raving about Ross Detwiler. The consensus was they have never seen him pitch as well as he has this spring. “The Nats,” one of them said, “are going to be a lot better.” And we’re about to get underway here at Digital Domain Park.”
This is what you listen to first, then the stats. If it turns out that Gorzelanny can match this … imagine the possibilities …
peric
8 Mar 11 at 2:01 pm
Peric – do you or do you not agree that acquiring a player who has no minor league options and is not necessarily guaranteed a 25-man roster spot is a risky strategy for the team? That was the essence of my post and my point. It is the same issue i have with Henry Rodriguez; zero options, not exactly a lights out guaranteed major league track record, and both guys (for different reasons) are “behind” in spring preparation to boot. It worries me.
If Gorzelanny pitches lights out and earns the 5th spot that’s great! Yes, being left handed is an advantage but it isn’t the be all-end all decision point. Not all lefthanders automatically are successful against other lefties, just like right handers aren’t necessarily better against other righties. There’s an ancedote in Jonah Keri’s new book where the Rays discovered that Mike Mussina was far more successful against his team when they tried to overload the lineup with lefies, so they played a righty-only lineup and pounded him. If a lefty looks just as good as a righty and the decision comes due, then by all means pick the lefty.
I too read that quote about Detwiler. In fact, i’ve been reading great quotes about Detwiler ever since we drafted him. Scouts have a tendency to over-state just how awesome people are. That quote from natsjournal was unattributed and has little more value to me than gossip. Until Detwiler puts it together on the field, in a game, at the MLB level I will continue to be cautiously optimistic about him but absolutely will not call him our next great starter. His body style and arm slot do not bode well for his continued success. He’s too lean, too skinny and susceptible to injury. And unless these new mechanics have completely changed the way he throws the ball he is still too far across his body with a motion that’s difficult to repeat, meaning his curveball is too much 3-9 versus 12-6 and his slider can float instead of dart.
my 2 cents.
Todd Boss
8 Mar 11 at 3:16 pm
[…] Gorzelanny: my post questioning his acquisition garnered quite a spirited response. The comments i’m about to make probably will too. His […]
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