Will Liriano pitch the PIrates deeper into the post-season? Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images
The Reds sputter into the one-game playoff tonight having lost 5 of their last 6 games at home. Those 6 games were against the hapless Mets and the same Pirates who they now face in a do-or-die wild card game. Meanwhile Pitsburgh has WON 5 of their last 6, all on the road, and got things done when it counted in the last series of the season.
Before we even look at the starters, clearly Pittsburgh has momentum on their side.
The Pirates are going with their ace Francisco Liriano, who had a complete career turnaround this year, finishing 16-8 with a 3.02 ERA and a K/inning. Liriano features a fantastic slider from the left-hand side and should be relatively effective against the Reds, who are in the bottom third of the league against lefties as a team and whose lineup features three prominent lefties (Choo, Votto and Bruce) in the first five batters. Choo in particular is just brutally bad against lefties, likely nullifying Cincinnati’s otherwise dynamic lead-off hitter.
However, interestingly, in the four games Liriano has pitched against Cincinnati this year, Pittsburgh is 0-4. Despite a couple of great starts (including an 11 strikeout performace in June and an 8 inning 2 run outing two weeks ago), Liriano has had tough luck against the Reds. Liriano is 8-1 with a 1.47 ERA in 11 home starts this year, and that one loss was against Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati got some bad news when their “ace” Mat Latos bowed out of the one-game playoff with a “sore arm,” leaving it to their opening day starter Johnny Cueto (and pre-season actual “Ace”) to make the start. Cueto’s season has been peppered with D/L stints and he’s only made 11 starts. He’ll be going on 8 days rest and has been reasonably effective since his latest return. Interestingly, Cueto’s best start of the season came in Pittsburgh, where he threw 8 innings of one-hit ball en-route to a 3-0 victory in May. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is dead-last in the majors in wOBA against right handers this year. But presumptive NL MVP Andrew McCutchen hits righties just fine (an .864 ops), so perhaps we’ll see some post-season magic tonight (even despite the fact he got hit in the head during BP yesterday).
I’m thinking this is going to be a tight, tense pitching duel, and I think its going to be Cueto who blinks first. Count on Reds manager Dusty Baker to over-manage some aspect of the game tonight (probably involving a bunt or two) and to leave his best reliever (Aroldis Chapman) on the bench because it’s not a save situation while Pittsburgh squeaks out a win.
Who do you think is favored in this game?