Boston’s Ace Jon Lester takes the mound in game 1. Photo via weei.com
For just the 3rd time since divisional play went into effect, the World Series will be contested by the two best teams (by record) in Baseball (other two times: 1995 Atlanta-Cleveland and 1999 Atlanta-New York series’). And since both Boston and St. Louis finished with the same number of wins, tying for the league lead with 97, we are guaranteed to have a situation that has happened just three times in the divisional era; the team with the best regular season record will also win the World Series (the other 3 times: New York in 2009, Boston in 2007 and the Yankees again in their legendary 1998 season).
Lets take a look at Game 1’s pitching matchup and make some predictions. Time permitting I’ll try to do this ahead of each game.
Game 1: Adam Wainwright vs Jon Lester. Ace-versus-Ace, mano-y-mano. Straight up you’d have to take Wainwright over Lester; he has a 1.57 ERA in 3 post season games in 2013, having given up just 4 runs in 23 innings. However, he has not exactly been doing this against an offense with the capabilities of Boston. The Red Sox are #1 in the league in wRC+ as a team against right-handed throwers, #2 in the league in wRC+ at home. I think it is safe to say that Boston likely gets some runs off of Wainwright tonight.
Meanwhile St. Louis’ issues with left-handed starters are pretty clear; 21st in wRC+ as a team, with a collective .238 BA. And they’re going against a premier left-handed starter who just went against one of the “other” best offenses in the league (Detroit) twice with great success.
I’m predicting Boston gets to Wainwright, Lester holds StL at bay, and Boston takes game one to the great delight of the home fans.