Nationals Arm Race

We’ve already covered this topic a bit  in the payroll and options analysis spots, but since the official non-tender deadline is this week (tomorrow, 12/2/19 at 8pm EST to be specific), I thought i’d throw out the players, give some external opinions and then my own.

Like a lot of posts, this is an annual tradition.  Here’s versions of this post from previous years: 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011.  Must have been busy in Dec of 2016.

First, here’s our list of arb-eligible players; 9 in all.

Player	Current or 2019 Contract	2019 Lux Tax	2019 Real dollars	My Guess
Turner, Trea	1 year/$3.725M (2019)	3725000	3725000	8000000
Taylor, Michael	1 year/$3.25M (2019)	3250000	3250000	4500000
Strickland, Hunter	1 year/$1.3M (2019)	1300000	1300000	2500000
Elias, Roenis	1 year/$910,000 (2019)	910000	910000	1300000
Guerra, Javy	1 year/$800,000 (2019)	800000	800000	1200000
Difo, Wilmer	1 year/$581,100 (2019)	581000	581000	800000
Ross, Joe	1 year/$1M (2019)	1000000	1000000	1400000
Glover, Koda	1 year/$564,300 (2019)	564300	564300	750000
Barrett, Aaron	1 year/minor league	150000	150000	750000

Here’s external analysis links to the same:

• MLBtraderumors.com published its list of non-tender candidates and for the Nats they listed the following players (and only the following players): Wilmer Difo, Javy Guerra, Koda Glover, Hunter Strickland
• MLB.com posted its non-tender league wide analysis and also mentioned Strickland.
• Masn’s Mark Zuckerman posted his analysis day of.  He thinks that Glover is at the most danger of getting cut.

 

——————-

So, lets go player by player and talk about what I think will happen (in the order of the table above):

• Turner, Trea; obvious tender.
• Taylor, Michael: I’m torn.  I just can’t see spending $3.5M or more (he made $3.25M last season) on a guy who you had to send to AA because he was so bad last year.  But, its also notable that he featured prominently in the playoffs, and not his likely replacement if we non-tender him Andrew Stevenson .  When Victor Robles went out, it was Taylor who played the entire LA series and performed well.  Maybe the team still rates him.  Its interesting that Taylor was specifically not listed by MLBtraderumors … maybe $3.5M for a 4th OF that you grew at home and who you know is a fantastic defender and who can string together solid streaks at the plate is worth keeping.  I’m coming around on Taylor and think we keep him.
• Strickland, Hunter: i just can’t see non-tendering him a half a season after acquiring him.  Even if he wasn’t terribly effective in 2019 for us, he was also coming off injury and was a closer-quality guy for years in SF.  His salary only projects to about $2-$2.5M and that’s a good gamble.  Keep him.
• Elias, Roenis: as with Strickland; we just got him and then he  got hurt.  Stupidly running the bases (please, can we have a universal DH yet??), he pulled a hamstring that basically never healed.  Easy tender for 2020.
• Guerra, Javy: numbers weren’t great, but he handled his DFA with grace and apparently this won’t be forgotten by management.  Made the WS roster and pitched.  I like the guy, think he’s a fighter, and i think he’s a good middle relief candidate.  I’d tender him.
• Difo, Wilmer; first year arb eligible; split time between AAA and MLB this year.  I mean, you need a backup infielder, and his numbers aren’t terribly bad for a guy who can play a number of positions.  I’m not sure why he’s a NT candidate; i’d rather have him at $800k than Adrian Sanchez at $550k.
• Ross, Joe: obvious tender
• Glover, Koda: tough one here.  Glover has closer quality stuff, but now has two straight seasons of injury and faces arbitration.  I’ve got him projected at just $750k (MLBtraderumors even less): why not tender him at that price then if you cut him in ST you’re on the hook for 1/6th of it ($125K).  That’s peanuts for a guy who you know can be an 8th-9th inning reliever.
• Barrett, Aaron: well, it’d be pretty cynical for the team to call him up in Sept for the sob story of redemption then ruthlessly NT him to save $750k right?

One last note: even if you tender a guy, if you drop him mid-spring training you’re only on the hook for a small portion of his salary.  So some of these non-tenders may turn into “tender now, do arbitration then use spring training as a tryout on the cheap.”  None of our real NT candidates really are that expensive, so It wouldn’t surprise me to tender all of them in some respects.

I’m predicting zero non-tenders.  I thought initially we may NT at least 4 of these guys, especially Taylor, but team actions seem to indicate otherwise.

Agree?  Disagree?

---

12/3/19: post NT deadline, here’s what the team did:

• Non Tendered Guerra and Glover (who announced his retirement)
• signed Strickland and Difo to 1yr deals
• tendered Turner, Taylor, Ross, Elias
• ?? on Barrett; i thought he was arb-eligible but maybe not.

Happy Thanksgiving!

You guys know I love mailbags.  I havn’t seen one in a while from the usual sources (MASN beat reporters, mlb.com beat reporters, etc).

But, the Athletic has assigned a beat reporter to the Nats, one Brittany Ghiroli, who was hired away from MLB.com a couple years ago (where she was the Baltimore beat reporter).   And guess what?  She’s doing chat responses to questions received on twitter.  I know the Athletic is a pay-for service, but I’m in and I love it and you wouldn’t believe how much content they’re producing.  Its almost overwhelming at a macro level now that they’re covering the EPL fully.

So, here goes.  Here’s Questions Brittany took on Nov 25th and Nov 26th in a two-parter.  Its got a ton of questions worth exploring as to where we are.

————–

Q: Would it make more sense for the Nationals to adopt the same methodology they did with (Bryce) Harper for Rendon? Take the huge price tag Rendon will demand and spread it among several positions like (Mike) Moustakas, (Yan) Gomes, and a couple of arms? 

A:  For me?  I think the answer might be Yes.  Not because I don’t want Anthony Rendon  back or because I don’t rate his abilities … but because (as we discussed in the payroll piece) I see no evidence that this team is willing to broach the salary cap, and if you bring back both Stephen Strasburg and Rendon, each for the 30M+/year they will cost … it doesn’t leave a whole lotta room for what this team needs.

What does this team need this off-season?  Squinting at the current roster, we need:

• A starter
• A backup catcher (Late breaking news; we re-signed Yan Gomeslast night so that’s done; good move).
• Probably three relievers unless you trust Hunter Strickland/Javy Guerra, or unless you’re convinced that Koda Glover will be healthy
• three starting infielders: 3B and 1B (I’m assuming that Carter Kieboom can play 2B ably at this point)
• A bench bat or two to replace what we got out of Howie Kendrick/Matt Adams

So, that’s a lot.   Can you get all of that on about $20M  I don’t think you can.  So the Nats may have to make some hard choices.

Ghiroli doesn’t equate the Rendon situation with the Harper situation, noting that Robles was waiting in the wings.  Fair enough.  But I think she underestimates  how much we need to fill out the rest of the roster.

—-

Q: If Rendon leaves, is Josh Donaldson a player the Nationals would have an eye on? 

A: Absolutely.  He’d probably take a shorter deal, still is an elite defender, still hits the heck out of the ball, and weakens a division rival if he signs here.  I’d be all in, assuming we could get him for roughly $25M AAV and use the delta between his AAV and Rendon’s AAV to fill out roster holes.

Ghiroli agrees i think, and talks about Donaldson’s firey approach that often rubs people the wrong way.

—

Q: Is the media downplaying the likelihood of the Nats going after Gerrit Cole? I have heard next to nothing connecting the two sides, but you have to think that Cole is the type of free agent ace that Mike Rizzo dreams about.

A: I don’t think the Media is driving anything here.  Cole’s the #1 target on the market, and has the wealthy teams salivating.  I think the Nats decision is simple:  you want the home grown guy versus the hired gun.

Ghiroli notes that the reason there’s no Nats-to-Cole buzz is … because there’s none to be had.  We have two major FAs, and that’s where we’re focusing.

—

Q: If the Nats are able to sign Rendon and Stras, do you see them winning the division? Too many people seem to be counting them out already by assuming that Rendon is gone.

A: Keeping both guys and assuming they have the same production really helps the 2020 projection … but lets be honest.  When this team was 19-31, they had both guys as well and were projecting for dead last.  Its a big team, its a long season, and you can’t just give them the division title if they retain both players.  Injuries happen, both guys are on the older side, etc etc.

Ghiroli agrees.

—

Q: Realistically, how much money will be available for the payroll? Is there any appetite for exceeding the luxury tax? 

A: well, we just discussed this.  I came up with roughly $80M and am pessimistic about broaching the CBT.

Ghiroli came up with $90M available, which I’m not sure how she arrived at that b/c right now Cots and I are only about $800k apart in our analysis.  Like KW and others, she notes that of all the years to do so, next year is the right y ear to blow past a luxury tax.

—

Q: Will Joe Ross be a member of the rotation next season?  What’s your take on the young arms — Ross, (Erick) Fedde, (Austin) Voth and bullpen prospects? Some of the younger starters started to shape up.

A: hard to see it.  I’d peg it Voth, then Ross, then Fedde for a 5th spot competition right now.  Gotta go with performance on the field.

Ghiroli doens’t even mention Voth in the discussion, which I think is a mistake.

—

Q: What clutch role players are the Nats targeting to re-sign? Of the non-premium free agents, who do you see as most likely to return? How do you see first base shaking out?

A: who knows who they’re targeting.  I’d love to have Zimmerman back and Kendrick but it seems like the latter may be more appropriate for an AL team at this point.   They need a lefty bench bat to replace Matt Adams.  I would like to upgrade the backup SS.  I guess I like our backup OF in-house options right now if they can sign Taylor to something reasonable.

Ghiroli agrees

—

Q: The Nats have two young catchers on the 40-man and another couple in the farm. Do any of them look like potential long-term everyday catchers?

A: I don’t think so.  I don’t think the team trusts either catcher on the 40-man (Read or Barrera), and their catcher depth chart from there is thin.  Here’s our current Catcher depth chart all the way to High-A:

Suzuki, Gomes, Barrera, Read, Gushue, Reistetter, Reetz, Dunlap, Pineda, Perkins, Cropley

Read is out of options with 63 total days of MLB service time.  Gushue was left off the roster and is exposed to the Rule-5 draft.  Barrera has 3 weeks of service time and spent all of 2019 at AA.  Reistetter is a classic “org guy injury cover” catcher who played in a grand total of 9 games in 2019.  Now you’re at A-ball catchers like Reetz (entering his 7th year of pro-ball, never been above high-A), Dunlap (a backup in high-A), Pineda (who took a big step back this year), Perkins (who hit .209 as a backup in low-A) and Cropley (a 2018 senior sign who hit .187 last year in low-A).

Sooooo not a lot of catcher depth in the farm right now.  Reetz was a  high round pick who has struggled, Pineda had a lot of prospect shine in 2018 that he squandered in 2019; can either take a 2020 step up?

I think they’re buying a backup on FA market.  (update; they just did)

Ghiroli says same as I’m saying, thinking perhaps Gomes comes back on a cheaper deal.

—

Q: How close is Luis Garcia from making the Nationals roster and where would he slot in if Rendon returns? He seems to be behind Kieboom in the pecking order and they both play the middle infield.

A: I think he slots in as a 2B/SS, moves Kieboom to 3B but he’s years away.   He was 19 in AA and struggled; he needs to go back to AA and thrive before moving up to compete in AAA.  That could take another two years.  Maybe he replaces like for like by the time he’s ready?  Its also worth noting that, despite his lofty rankings in our system and on top 100 lists, there are some who don’t rate him as a prospect at all.  So i don’t think we can count on him to be much more than a Wilmer Difo guy in the end.

Ghiroli says don’t look for him  until mid 2021.

—

Q: Will Michael A. (Taylor) be traded or stay as the fourth outfielder?

A: Better question; is a guy who spent most of the year in AA worth paying north of $3M/year?  That’s the decision.  He’s not going to get a pay cut.  Arbitration doesn’t work that way; so either you tender him and negotiate or you cut him.  Sure you can try to trade him; who’s giving the team value for him?   He’s now got a career 80 OPS+ across six years and more than 1700 PAs.  Whatever he figured out to hit so well in 2017 is clearly gone; i think he’s non-tendered and cut loose.

Ghiroli says traded or non-tendered and is a little pricey for a 4th OF.  yeah.

—

Q: How much was the World Series win worth financially to the Nationals franchise, in terms of ticket sales (including projected rise in season plan holders and general ticket interest next year), merchandise, and, well, anything else?

A: Its impossible to tell.  But i do know this: in order to secure 2019 playoff tickets, you could buy 2020 season tickets… and a lot of people did so.  So you’re going to see a bump next  year in attendance, which is great.

Maybe you also acquire some fair weather/bandwagon fans too.  One would only hope.

There’s studies out there showing financial impacts to the franchise with long playoff runs like the Nats just had; its worth tens of millions of dollars, both tot he owners and the players.  The players just split some $30M in bonus money … and the owners get much more than that.  Its one more argument towards having the Lerners blow past a CBT to “use” that money towards next year.  Will they do it?  We’ve been discussing it.

 

We’ve alluded to this point in multiple comments under past comments, but its time to put pencil to paper.

Right now (ahead of any FA signings), the Nats 40-man roster sits at 31 players, with Ben Braymer having been added to avoid Rule-5 exposure yesterday … and one third of those players are out of options for next season.  A number of those players also seem to have little chance of actually making an active roster of a major league team, which means that they could be early off-season outright fodder if the team wants to try to slip them through waivers and outright them back into the system.

Lets take a quick run through each of the categories of Nats 40-man players and option status.

(by the way, yes I know its a 26-man roster in 2020; all my XLSs need updating).

Category 1:  Vets who can refuse demotion (5 or more years of service) – 6 current players

Player	2020 25-man opening day Guess	Service Time post 2019	First Added to 40-man	Option Years Used	Options left?	Notes
Scherzer, Max	x	11.079	May 2007	2008	2
Eaton, Adam	x	7.030	Sept 2012	2013	2	Achieved 5yrs service time mid 2017
Doolittle, Sean	x	7.122	Nov 2010	2011,2012	1	Achieved 5yrs service time mid 2017
Suzuki, Kurt	x	12.113	Jun 2007	none	3
Corbin, Patrick	x	7.105	Apr 2012	2012	2	Achieved 5yrs svc in 2017
Sanchez, Anibal	x	13.083	Nov 2005	2006	2

Interestingly, the Nats roster last  year had no less than 16 such players; Veterans with 5+ years of service who could refuse demotion/make any available options immaterial.  Indeed, it was a veteran team.  Now 10 of those guys are FAs or out of the organization.

Category 2: Options Avail but are MLB entrenched – 5 current players

Player	2020 25-man opening day Guess	Service Time post 2019	First Added to 40-man	Option Years Used	Options left?	Notes
Turner, Trea	x	3.135	Aug 2015	2016	2	still pissed he was called up so early, but he's in AAA to start 2016, which preserved an extra yr of control but did not save Super2 status for 2019
Soto, Juan	x	1.134	May 2018	none	3	yet to be optioned
Robles, Victor	x	1.052	Sep 2017	2018	2
Suero, Wander	x	1.123	Nov 2017	2018	2
Rainey, Tanner	x	0.158	Apr 2018	2018,2019	1

Jk

Not much to see here; all 5 of these guys are important parts of next  year’s team.  As noted, the early call up of Trea Turner eventually came back to bite the team, and probably costs them in the range of $10-$12M in payroll over the course of his four arbitration periods.  An expensive mistake.

Category 3: Options Available, jeopardizing 2019 25-man roster status – 3 current players

Player	2020 25-man opening day Guess	Service Time post 2019	First Added to 40-man	Option Years Used	Options left?	Notes
Glover, Koda		3.051	July 2016	2016	2	No option used in 2018 or 2019; either hurt or on roster
Stevenson, Andrew		1.063	July 2017	2018,2019	1	Optioned but recalled too fast in 2017 for it to count
Kieboom, Carter		0.012	Apr 2019	2019	2

I suppose one could make the argument that Carter Kieboom should be in the Category 2; right now we don’t really have a 2B or a 3B on the roster and he could play either.  But for now, i’m going on first impressions … and he did not make a good one early in the season.

Category 4: Options almost guaranteed to be used in 2018 – 7 current players

Player	2020 25-man opening day Guess	Service Time post 2019	First Added to 40-man	Option Years Used	Options left?	Notes
McGowin, Kyle		0.069	Sept 2018	2019	2
Williams, Austen		1.028	Sept 2018	none	3
Bourque, James		0.005	Nov 2018	2019	2
Barrera, Tres		0.022	Sept 2019	none	3
Barrett, Aaron		2.170	Nov 2013	2014	2
Noll, Jake		0.017	mar 2019	2019	2

I’m guessing that if any of these six players start on the active roster next opening day, then we’ve had a huge injury spike in Spring Training.  Is Austen Williams healthy?  Was Aaron Barrett‘s call-up more than just a feel-good story?  We’ll see.  Nonetheless, it seems like all 6 of these guys are in AAA next year to start.

Note: I wrote this prior to the rule-5 additions Ben Braymer.  So technically this section is 7 current players, not 6.  But I think its safe to say that our new rule5 additions are guaranteed to both start the year in the minors in 2020.

---

 

Which leaves us with…

Category 5:  No Options Available – 10 current players of the 30 on the active roster.

Player	2020 25-man opening day Guess	Service Time post 2019	First Added to 40-man	Option Years Used	Options left?	Notes
Guerra, Javy	x	4.415	Nov 2009	?	0
Strickland, Hunter	x	4.163	Nov 2012	?	0
Taylor, Michael	x	4.129	Nov 2013	2014,2016,2019	0
Elias, Roenis	x	4.069	Mar 2014	?	0
Ross, Joe	x	4.018	June 2015	2015,2017,2019	0	Optioned for roster reasons in 2017.
Difo, Wilmer	x	3.016	Nov 2014	2015,2016,2018	0	Optioned but recalled too fast in 2017 for it to count
Fedde, Erick	x	1.099	July 2017	2017,2018,2019	0
Sanchez, Adrian		1.083	June 2017	2017,2018,2019	0
Voth, Austin		0.127	Nov 2016	2017,2018,2019	0
Read, Raudy		0.063	Nov 2016	2017,2018,2019	0

So, this is kind of the point of this article.  Which of these 10 players are going to stick, which are players the team has to make some tough decisions on?  Lets go player by player in the order they are in this table (which is sorted by Service time):

1. Guerra, Javy: the team outrighted him mid-season, then recalled him the next day and he eventually made the post-season roster.  An odd set of circumstances for a DFA.   His overall 2019 numbers weren’t great; I wonder if he’s thrown into a general “RH middle reliever” competition in Spring Training 2020 and then either makes the team or gets DFA’d again.  He can’t be outrighted again, so he’d have to choose whether to stay with the org.
2. Strickland, Hunter: seems like a guarantee to make the 2020 roster, irregardless of his option status.
3. Taylor, Michael: you have to think his time has some to an end with this team.  Optioned to AA despite being on a $3.25M contract; they can’t possibly tender him for 2020 can they?   Hit kind of an empty .250 this year (1 homer in 53 games/97 PAs), and is arbitration eligible so he’ll “earn” an increase in pay.  But he played really well in the post-season, hitting two homers while covering for an injured Victor Robles.  Do you tender him and pay him $4M to be a 4th outfielder?  He’s undoubtedly solid defensively.  But he offers little to no value as a PH.  Do you save $4M and use Andrew Stevenson as a 4th OF instead?
4. Elias, Roenis: another guy like Strickland who wasn’t acquired to get cut.  He’s on the 2020 roster … and oh, Davey Martinez?  Don’t f*cking let him hit this year.
5. Ross, Joe: Well, the 2020 Nats need a 5th starter right now (and, technically also need a 2nd starter if they don’t resign Stephen Strasburg).  Is Ross the leading candidate right now?  I think so: in 6 starts last year after the team finally figured out that he couldn’t be a reliever he was competent: 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA but a 1.455 whip that probably made his FIP look awful.  Is that 5th starter material?   I’ve always thought so … but now he has competition, mainly from two guys on this list.  If he doesn’t make the rotation, I don’t know what you do with him.  Clearly he can’t be a reliever; and if he is facing an options crunch DFA … nobody’s going to trade for him.  They’ll just wait for him to declare FA and pounce.
6. Difo, Wilmer: everybody needs a utility guy who can play SS in a pinch; is Difo that guy for us?  He has been, traditionally, for years now.  But without options he’s gotta earn his spot.  There’s a slew of guys out there who can do what he’s done: play competent middle infield and hit above the Mendoza line.  I’m guessing, like Guerra above him, he’ll face competition from NRI veterans and Sanchez (see below) who do the same thing he does and if he makes the team so be it, otherwise he faces the DFA deadline come 4/1/20.
7. Fedde, Erick: this one is tough.  Like Ross, he was called into reliever duty in 2019 and was not great at it.  And he was in the rotation for a bit, with weaker numbers than Ross.  Fedde now has 26 starts across three seasons with ERAs and FIPs north of 5.00.  I know he has his defenders … and maybe you could argue that his relief numbers in 2019 weren’t as bad (he did have just a 1.132 FIP in 9 relief innings), but the clock has run out.  What do you do here?  I’m guessing he competes with Ross and Voth for the 5th starter (again, going under the assumption we re-sign Strasburg) and if he doesn’t make it he becomes the long-man in the pen and begins life as a reliever.
8. Sanchez, Adrian posted just an OPS+ figure of 23 for 2019.  In 32 ABs he did not have one extra base hit.  I’m guessing, like Difo, he’s in ST2020 competition and gets DFA’d on 4/1/20.
9. Voth, Austin: he’s got the least service time of any of the three starters he seems likely to compete with for the 5th starter job, but easily out-performed both of them in his 2019 starts.  8 starts, 3.30 ERA, 1.053 whip; he got it done this year.  I think Voth has the inside track on the 5th starter job right now over both Ross and Fedde, which puts both of them at a disadvantage.
10. Read, Raudy; He’s got the least amount of service time here (just 63 days) and seems the least likely to make the opening day roster (i’d have to think the team is investing in a veteran FA catcher).  I’ve got Read ahead of Taylor Gushue on the Catcher depth chart; they both hit well in AAA this year with the PCL parks and the inflated ball, but Read has also shown a solid bat all the way up the chain.  Is that enough to get him onto the opening day roster?  I don’t think so; i just don’t think he’s got enough experience to merit a 2x/week backup catcher role to a starter in Kurt Suzuki who’s on the wrong side of 35 and will miss time.  I sense Read comes to ST, helps out with the catching load, sticks around just in case there’s an injury, then hits the DFA trail.

Summary of what I think eventually happens to all 10 guys in one (or two) words:

1. Guerra, Javy: DFA’d
2. Strickland, Hunter: 2020 bullpen
3. Taylor, Michael: Non-tendered
4. Elias, Roenis: 2020 bullpen
5. Ross, Joe: DFA’d
6. Difo, Wilmer: 2020 bench
7. Fedde, Erick: 2020 bullpen
8. Sanchez, Adrian DFA’d
9. Voth, Austin: 5th starter
10. Read, Raudy; DFA’d

I mean no offense to any of these players of course; its just that options crunches force teams into tough decisions.  But I see half these guys getting shed at some point.

Now that our short-season domestic staffs have now had one full “turn” through the rotation, I thought i’d be a good time to do another rotation check-in.

We’ve done two previously, which we’ll leverage throughout here:

• 4/15/19 Good and Bad starts
• 5/15/19 Mid-May check-in

Note: I wrote much of this prior to the 7/2/19 games, so a few roster moves and observations may be missing.  Also, feel free to add in more detailed commentary for those who have studied the players more closely in a particular level; i did not do “just last month” splits on every single player so some players who have significantly improved upon slow starts (or the reverse) may be missed.

---

 

AAA/Fresno 2019

• Rotation Now: Fedde, JRoss, McGowin, Hoover, Braymer
• Rotation Mid-May: Voth, McGowin, Copeland, Espino, MSanchez.
• Rotation to Start: McGowin, Copeland, Voth, Espino, Alvarez

Changes in the rotation since last post: Voth has earned his promotion, and then earned more starts over Fedde at the MLB level.  It looks like the “hey lets use Joe Ross as a reliever” experiment is finally over; he’s been returned to Fresno to officially get stretched out and return to the rotation.  Espino is on the DL, replaced by Hoover (who suddenly at 31 is a starter after years of pitching in relief?).  Sanchez got demoted and replaced by Braymer, who just arrived.  Lastly Copeland has been returned to the long-man/spot starter role.  The sole holdover from 6 weeks ago is McGowin … but what this doesn’t show is his own up-and-back movement.  Lots of shuffle in the Fresno rotation.

I’d like to highlight Ben Braymer though, because his being in AAA is pretty amazing.  He was an 18th round pick in 2016, signed for just $100k out of Auburn, and now sits in the AAA rotation at the edge of the majors.  I don’t think the Nats have seen such a low-round pick make it this far since perhaps Stephen Lombardozzi, a 19th rounder in 2008.

• Bullpen Now: Self, Bacus, Blazek,  Kontos, Bourque, Baez with Alvarez, Copeland as long-men/spot starters
• Bullpen mid-may:  Rainey, Hoover, Self, Bacus, Nuno, JMills*, Blazek with Alvarez as long-man/spot starter.
• Bullpen to start: AAdams, Rainey, Hoover, Nuno, Self, Cordero and Bacus  with Dragmire as a spot-starter

Changes in the bullpen since last post: Rainey promoted … and immediately became Nats bullpen savior of the week.  Hoover now in the rotation.  Nunu cut loose after posting a 7.25 ERA in 22 innings.  Mills sent back down.  Bourque was promoted to the majors from AA, then optioned back to AAA.  Baez promoted from AA.  Kontos signed.  Copeland dumped to bullpen.  Rodney signed and quickly promoted.   Lastly Cordero, who was in DFA limbo last post, was claimed by Toronto and is gone.  Phew; that’s 10 different moves for the team, just 3 guys in the same place they were 6 weeks ago, and just two stable names from day one.

Who’s hot:  Dakota Bacus continues to be the most impressive reliever in AAA, maintaining a seasonal ERA of 2.36 and a whip of 1.19.   Ross’ numbers as a starter in Fresno are respectable; 3.68 ERA in 5 starts with just 4 walks.

Who’s not?  Kontos has not been good so far, but a lot of his ERA is one bad outing in Salt Lake.  Howell has gotten shelled in basically each of his last 6-7 outings and looks toast from the stat sheets.

Who’s next guy to get the call?   I think Bacus deserves the next call-up, perhaps over Bourque even though he’s not on the 40-man.  I’d like to see Ross get the next spot start, on regular rest.

Who’s next to get the Axe?   I think the team may be reaching the end of the line with over-30 MLFA guys like Kontos and Hoover, now that they’ve got a slew of new draft picks in.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

• April: Adams and Voth to get the call, Dragmire to get the Axe.  Results?  Adams released (?), Voth now in Majors, Dragmire now demoted.
• May: Voth, Rainey to get the call.  Hoover, Mills, Sanchez, Dragmire to get the Axe.  Results:  Voth, Rainey now in Majors.  Mills, Sanchez, Dragmire demoted.  Hoover still hanging in there.

---

AA/Harrisburg 2019

• Rotation Now: Mapes, Fuentes, MSanchez, Tetreault, Crowe with ALee just called up
• Rotation Mid-May: Crowe, Tetreault, Sharp, Mapes, Braymer
• Rotation to Start: Crowe, Fedde, Sharp, Mapes, Braymer*

Changes since last post: Sharp to the D/L, replaced by Fuentes.  Braymer got bumped up, replaced by MSanchez coming back down.  Lastly Lee just got promoted and may be taking someone’s spot.

• Bullpen now: Condra-Bogan, RPena, Guilbeau*,  JMills*, ABarrett, Bonnell with Dragmire spot starts.
• Bullpen Mid-May: Bourque, Condra-Bogan, RPena, Guilbeau*, ABarrett with Baez, Ondrusek, Fuentes as swingmen/spot starters
• Bullpen to start: Bourque,  Brinley, Condra-Bogan, JMills*, RPena,  Guilbeau*, ABarrett with  swingman/spot starts by Baez and MSanchez

Changes since last post: Bourque up, Baez up.  Fuentes moved from swingman to rotation.  Ondrusek bounced around, he’s currently on the AAA D/L.  Mills was up and is now back.  Bonnell was signed after being dropped by Tampa and has been pretty solid.   Venters was signed, appeared briefly and was called up for bullpen reinforcement duty.  Lastly Dragmire is dumped here after posting a double digit ERA in Fresno.

Who’s hot: Steven Fuentes has continued right where he left off in High-A, and holds a 1.80 ERA in 11 appearances/7 starts in AA.  He’s only 22.  I’m guessing we’re going to start seeing more of him on Nats top10 farm lists if he keeps this up.

Who’s not? Nobody is pitching egregiously bad honestly; Mapes and Tetreault are both posting worse than you’d like to see numbers but Tetreault is just 23 and is in AA for the first time.  Mapes is a bit more concerning; he’s now 27, in his 6th pro season, was a 30th round pick probably given a 4-figure bonus, and the team has almost nothing invested in him.

Who’s next guy to get the call?   Barrett?  I wonder what else he has to prove in AA at this point.   I’d say its a bit too early to promote Fuentes, and the rest of the rotation needs more time in AA.

Who’s next to get the Axe?  Mapes may be at the end of the line, given his draft pedigree.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

• April: Crowe, Fedde to get the call.  Sharp, Gilbeau to get the Axe.  Results?  Fedde up, the rest still hanging in there
• May: Crowe, Bourque to get the call.  Pena to get the Axe.  Results?  Bourque up, Crowe and Pena still hanging in AA.

 

---

High-A/Potomac 2019

• Rotation Now: Johnston, Raquet*, Cate*, ?, MPena (the question mark is because Lee got promoted the day we were writing this)
• Rotation Mid-May: Johnston, Borne*, Raquet*, ALee, MPena.
• Rotation to Start: Johnston, Borne*, Tetreault, Raquet*, MPena, LReyes

Changes since last post: Borne to the D/L, Lee promoted.  To replace them we got Cate from Low-A and a question mark the be filled (if it were me) by Teel.   Otherwise a very steady rotation here: 3 of the 5 havn’t changed since opening day.

• Bullpen now: Bartow, German, Istler, Fletcher* with Howard*, LReyes, Pantoja, Teel*, McKinney as swingmen.
• Bullpen Mid-May: Bogucki,  McKinney,  Bartow, JRomero, LReyes, German with Howard*,  Teel* as swingmen
• Bullpen to start: Acevedo, Bogucki, Fuentes,   McKinney,  Bartow with swingman/spot starts by Howard*,  ALee,

Changes from last time:  Istler returns from XST/witness protection.  Fletcher promoted from low-A, along with Pantoja (and Teel, and Cate: we’ve seen 5 promotions so far).  Bogucki released.

Who’s hot:  I like what I see out of Teel and Fletcher so far, both mid-season promotions.  Fletcher has a 24/5 K/BB ratio since being promoted a few weeks back, and Teel has now made it to his 4th pro level since being drafted last June.   Amazingly, Reyes seems to have found his calling, going 10 straight outings without giving up a run.

Who’s not? Raquet has the worst WHIP of the rotation, and Pena the worst ERA.  Yet both remain mainstays in the Potomac bullpen.  Raquet is putting up almost identical numbers to last year, but as a high-bonus 3rd rounder probably gets more rope than a similarly producing 15th rounder.  Pena is just 22 but may be working towards another year in Potomac.

Who’s next guy to get the call?  Istler really should be in AA; he’s given up zero runs in 10 High-A innings, which shouldn’t be a surprise since he spent most of last year in AA posting a 2.53 ERA.  Why exactly is he in Potomac?

Who’s next to get the Axe?  Unclear; McKinney’s season numbers are poor but he’s pitched a number of clean outings since his return from the D/L.  Cate’s first two starts havn’t been stellar.  I don’t have a great case for anyone to get demoted or cut.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

• April: Tetreault and Fuentes up.  Reyes and Bourne to get the axe..  Results?  Both Tetreault and Fuentes since promoted.  Reyes dumped from the rotation finally, Borne on the D/L.
• May: Nobody to get the call.  Bogucki and Reyes to get the Axe.  Results?  Bogucki indeed released, Reyes demoted to the pen but succeeding in new role.

---

Low-A/Hagerstown 2019

• Rotation Now: Alastre, Schaller, Irvin, Adon, Stoeckinger*
• Rotation Mid-May: Alastre, Adon, Cate*, Irvin, FPeguero.
• Rotation to Start: Alastre/Day, Adon, Cate*/Tapani, Irvin/Teel*, FPeguero/AGuillen, Strom/Stoeckinger*

Changes since last post: Cate Promoted, Peguero to the D/L.  To replace them we’ve seen Schaller promoted up from XST/GCL and Stoeckinger pulled from the tandem starter ranks.  Like with Potomac, 3 of the 5 starters the same since opening day.

• Bullpen now: Brasher, Tapani, Day, Howell, RWilliamson*, AGuillen as tandem starters/swingmen, TTurner, Vann* as conventional relievers.
• Bullpen Mid-May: Stoeckinger*, AGuillen, RWilliamson*, Tapani, Fletcher*, Day as tandem starters, Brasher, TTurner in the pen as more conventional relievers.
• Bullpen to start:  Day, Tapani, Teel, AGullen, Stoeckinger as tandem starters, German,  Fletcher* as conventional relievers.

changes since last post: Howell returns to the fold after missing all of 2018 with injury.  Fletcher promoted.  Vann (a 2018 draftee) promoted up from XST/GCL.

Who’s hot: Stoeckinger has earned his spot in the rotation (if, indeed he stays there).  2.54 ERA, 1.19 whip in 39 IP as a tandem starter this year.

Who’s not?  Alastre continues to struggle in the rotation; hes now ballooned to a 6.11 ERA and 1.71 whip on the year while repeating the level.   He’s only 21 though, so he’s got plenty of time.  Howell has struggled since his reinstatement, and he does not have a ton of time, being a lower round pick coming off injury.

Who’s next guy to get the call?  Turner has had a nifty time in the Low-A bullpen; 28 Ks in 17 innings.  I’d also say Peguero, who has the best stats of any starter, but he’s on teh D/L currently.

Who’s next to get the Axe?  Alastre.  Howell.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

• April: Peguero and Fletcher up.  Alastre to get the Axe.  Results?  Peguero hurt, Fletcher up, Alastre still in the rotation.
• May: Cate, Fletcher, Peguero up.  Brasher to get the demotion.  Results?  Peguero hurt, Fletcher and Cate up.  Brasher still holding on, having gone an entire month w/o giving up a run.

---

Short-A/Auburn 2019

• rotation: NGomez, PGonzalez, CRomero, RGomez, Strom, Troop*
• tandem starters: Chu*, Galindez*/AMartinez, AHernandez*, Segura
• bullpen: JPeguero*, Willingham, Yankowsky,  Milacki, FPerez, ELee*, McMahan, McMahon, Moore, 

Its a little early to pass judgement on the starts out of Auburn, but we’ll do it anyway.   I will note though that with recent 2019 draftee assignments, there’s now TWENTY (20) arms on the squad.  So you have to wonder if we’re about to see some shedding.

Who’s hot:  Niomar Gomez has had 3 solid starts to begin the season, picking up where he left off last year.  Troop, in his 3rd pro season, has yet to give up a run while posting a 12/0 K/BB ratio in two starts and needs to be moved up.  Strom looks solid, after struggling in Low-A, and may be stuck between levels.

Who’s not?   18yr old Pedro Gonzalez has had 3 starts; in those 3 starts he’s pitched a grand total of 4 innings, given up 13 hits 5 walks and 18 total runs.  Those are Trevor Rosenthal numbers.  He had a 9.60 ERA in the GCL last  year; why exactly is he in Short-A going against college draftees 4 years his senior?

Who’s next guy to get the call?   Troop

Who’s next to get the Axe?  Gonzalez.

 

---

 

Rookie/GCL 2019

• rotation: Denaburg, Alvarado/Seijas, Yean, Pozo, Rutledge, Peterson
• tandem starters: Hiraldo, BPena*, Beasley
• bullpen: Jameson, WSeverino, Amoroso, Dyson, Ferrer*, Cuevas, Ribalta

We’re basically one “turn” through the GCL rotation, and now we have 1st round pick Jackson Rutledge in Florida for (presumably) a short stay.  Surprise 2019 signees Michael Cuevas and  Orlando Ribalta are also here and may themselves be in the rotation (they were just assigned yesterday or today).

The Big News here is Mason Denaburg of course.  He’s finally on a team and pitching professionally.  Through two starts, he’s given up a couple runs in 7 innings, with a few too many walks.

Who’s hot:  too early

Who’s not?   too early.

Who’s next guy to get the call?  Rutledge really shouldn’t be here long.  Neither should Tyler Dyson, 5th round 2019 pick from Florida.  And neither should Todd Peterson, 7th round pick out of LSU.  Generally speaking, SEC starters are Short-A talents at worst, and should be fast tracked to Low-A

Who’s next to get the Axe? nobody.

 

---

 

XST names of interest

• Why hasn’t Nick Wells been assigned to a level yet??  He was traded for weeks ago.
• Robbie Dickey has not pitched since 2016,  yet still remains in XST.
• 4th rounder Matt Cronin has yet to be assigned to a team; i’m really curious to see if he can move fast.

 

Yeah, the team just won 3 of 4 from Miami.  They’re still almost guaranteed at this point not to make the playoffs.  As suggested in the comments from the previous post … Here’s a sweep through the 40-man roster as of today, to talk about possible trade chips and who may or may not be in the future of this team.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vnTLwaXYeHFjahCNrTFLzAVebGw0Fj_-__igrTplZA0/edit#gid=1393584019

Outright Free Agents after 2019:

• Anthony Rendon: who would also be the most likely to fetch prospects in trade mid-season, but who also is someone the Nats may very much want to sign to an extension.  Will the ownership group learn their lesson after dragging their feet last year with Bryce Harper, costing them the Houston trade that almost certainly would have brought back better stuff than a post 4th round pick (#139 overall, which is what we got instead thanks to criminal cap mismanagement over the past two years).  Is this leadership group going to keep him instead of trading him because they think trading him for half a season will damage their negotiations with him?  Trust me, Rendon WANTS to be traded; it removes the Qualifying Offer from burdening his off-season negotiations.   Frankly, getting moved to a contender shouldn’t preclude his returning to the Nats on a long term contract, but a bigger question is what is he worth?  Unlike other major 3B players who signed mega deals lately (Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado), Rendon will be 30 upon signing, has injury history, and thus his value is limited.  This is a tangent conversation to the subject at hand, but factors in.
• Brian Dozier; so far, he’s not only not earning his 2019 $9M salary, he’s putting his career in serious jeopardy.  If he is still hitting .210 at the end of the year, its hard to see him getting a guaranteed contract next year at age 33.
• Howie Kendrick, who it should be noted was expected to be basically a 4th OF/utility guy and has been batting frigging cleanup for the team lately.  He continues to be a professional hitter even at advancing age (he’s in his age 35 season), and should be worthy of some halfway decent return in prospects in trade.
• Jeremy Hellickson: for as good as he was in 2018, he’s been as bad in 2019.  He’s not going to fetch anything in trade, and is closer to a release than a trade.
• Javy Guerrero: we’ll see if  he even makes it to July 1.  Fungible asset, trade if you can get anything.
• Gerardo Parra: we’re paying him a pro-rated MLB min … as with Guerrero, trade if you can get anything for him.

If you waive the white flag on 2019, every one of these players should get moved for whatever you can get, if anything.  Rendon and Kendrick bring the most back at this point.

Players with 2020 Options

• Ryan Zimmerman: boy, is he putting the team into a tough position.  Instead of producing in his possible walk year, he’s been awful at the plate and has gotten hurt with a typical “old guy” injury (Planter Fasciitis).  Yes he’s the Face of the Franchise, yes he’s the longest tenured player, yes he was the first player the team ever drafted, yes he’s the clubhouse leader, yes he means a ton to the community, yes he holds a massive fundraiser each year, yes he’s set down DC roots, yes he’s got a 5 year personal-services contract with the team (since deemed illegal in the CBA), and yes he wants to be with the team post playing career.  Yes to all of that.  However, there’s no way he’s worth his 2020 option of $18M.  that’s 10% of the payroll for a guy who is easily replaced with readily available mid-30s sluggers for a quarter of the price.  This is going to be ugly.  I don’t think you trade him (who would want him and who would give up prospects?), but I also don’t think you sign him at his option.  I privately suspect the team will renegotiate his $18M option to something like a 4-yr/$20M deal that pays him right around what Matt Adams is making, takes him to his late 30s, establishes him as a utility/bench bat for the duration, and keeps him in the fold til that point in his career where inarguably he is done playing.
• Adam Eaton: his 2020 and 2021 options are ridiculously affordable ($9.5M and $10.5M).  The team gutted its top-end starting pitcher depth to acquire him (a decision that looks worse and worse as Lucas Giolito throws 4-hit shutouts and Reynaldo Lopez maintains 12 K/9 rates and Dane Dunning remains a viable future MLB starter even despite his TJ surgery).  But Eaton is now 30, and his 5-6 bWAR seasons seem past him.  If he’s a 1-2 win player, he’s worth the salary and picking up the options.  If he ends 2019 hitting a punchless .273 …. do you dare cut him or trade him?  Maybe not after 2019, but another season of this after 2020 and they may be cutting bait.
• Yan Gomes: $9M 2020 option.  While the team didn’t trade as much for Gomes, catchers are difficult to come by in this sport.  So even despite his current BA, I can’t see the team cutting him loose after this year and declining his option.
• Sean Doolittle has a ridiculously cheap $6.5M 2020 option and is the first stable closer we’ve had under longer term team control since Drew Storen.  He’s not going anywhere.
• Trevor Rosenthal: $10M option on the table which increases to $15M player option if he pitches in 50 games (he’s appeared in 7 so far).  You may laugh right now at even considering this option; what if he comes back and pitches lights out in June and July?  I think you trade him for whatever you can get and let his options be someone else’s issue.  More likely, he’s going to come back from his “rehab” appearances, continue to struggle and the team will summarily cut him, and he’s exhibit 1A for the 2019 team’s issues.
• Matt Adams: $4M 2020 mutual option; he’s not earning it right now.  Trade him for what you can get, and find some other middle 30s lefty slugger on the open market next year.
• Tony Sipp: $2.5M 2020 option, that’s a steal.  But he’s got a 5.40 ERA in limited action; would you pick up this option?

Of this group, i’d move Rosenthal, Adams and Sipp if you can get anything.

Signed for 2020/longer term:

• Max Scherzer; signed through 2021, and  honestly if he wins another Cy Young he’ll be wearing a Nats cap in Cooperstown.  can’t move him.
• Stephen Strasburg: signed through 2023, can’t move him.
• Patrick Corbin; just signed new deal through 2024, why would we want to move him.
• Anibal Sanchez: $9M for 2020 guaranteed … but he’s not really putting himself into position to get anything back in trade based on performance and injury so far.
• Kurt Suzuki: $6M for 2020, and he’s playing great.  If you move him you just have to replace him and what has changed in terms of our ML catcher depth from last off-season to now?  We still don’t trust Spencer Kieboom with major league ABs, i’m not sure why Raudy Read continues to take up space on the 40-man, and our best prospect Israel Pineda is in Low-A.  So we need Suzuki for 2020.

I’d keep the big 3 starters and Suzuki; move Sanchez if you can (doubtful).  I just don’t see how you can justify moving any of our big 3 starters unless you’re planning a complete, 59 win season overhaul.

Arbitration eligible next year: 

• Trea Turner
• Michael Taylor
• Kyle Barraclough
• Justin Miller
• Wilmer Difo
• Matt Grace
• Koda Glover
• Joe Ross

An interesting set of players.  I’d say the team faces some interesting tender choices next off-season.   Right now looking at this list i’d clearly tender Turner, Barraclough and Ross, I’d probably take a hard look at Miller, Difo, Grace but eventually tender, and I’d probably cut loose Taylor and Glover.  Who of these guys are trade bait?  Honestly, everyone but Turner, Ross and Barraclough.

In terms of Trade deadline … i’m not sure i’d trade any of these guys … they’re all either untouchable or un-tradeable.

Pre-Arbitration players:

• Juan Soto, Wander Suero, Andrew Stevenson, Victor Robles, Jake Noll, James Bourque, Erick Fedde, Spencer Kieboom, Kyle McGowin, Tanner Rainey, Raudy Read, Adrian Sanchez, Austin Voth, Austen Williams, Carter Kieboom.

No reason to part ways with anyone here; if they’re starters (Soto, Robles, Fedde, etc) they’re too valuable on their current $575k (or so) contracts, and if they’re role players they’re fungible assets who are probably not really trade-able.

—————–

Summary: there’s not really a ton of return value here.  Rendon, Kendrick, Adams seem to be the best trade chips.

—————–

added bonus: CBS sports did some similar analysis of Nats potential trade chips: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-deadline-anthony-rendon-and-other-nationals-trade-chips-ranked-if-they-become-sellers-by-july-31/  .  They came up with similar names here.

 

Since its so depressing to talk about the train wreck that the Major League team is … lets look at the minor league pitching pipeline.

We last checked in a couple weeks into the season on 4/15/19, so we’re just about a month past that post.  Lets revisit where we are.

---

 

AAA/Fresno 2019

The rotation is: Voth, McGowin, Copeland, Espino, MSanchez.   Changes from last post: Alvarez got dumped to the bullpen thanks to his  8.20 ERA, Dragmire is on the D/L,  Ross got promoted to the needy MLB bullpen, and MSanchez was promoted up from AA to fill the rotation gap.

The Bullpen is: Rainey, Hoover, Self, Bacus, Nuno, JMills*, Blazek with Alvarez as long-man/spot starter.   Changes from last post: Adams was DFA’d and traded for Nick Wells, a Battlefield HS grad who now gets to play closer to home.  Cordero was also DFA’d and as of this writing sits in DFA limbo.  To replace them the team promoted JMills from AA and signed Blazek off the street a day before this writing.

Who’s hot:  McGowin has thrown 4 straight QS.  Voth remains the best AAA starter, keeping his ERA under 4.00 despite playing in the PCL.  Self and Bacus continue to perform well in their first AAA experiences.  I continue to be dumbfounded why Adams was DFA’d; here’s his AAA line this year for Fresno: 12.1 IP, 2.19 ERA, 0.89 Whip, 24/3 K/BB.  Yet the team (at the time) thought it was more important to keep Cordero on the roster.

Who’s not?  Dragmire may go straight to release waivers off the D/L (28 hits in 13 IP).  Mills does not look ready for AAA (13.50 ERA in 8 IP).  Neither does Mario Sanchez (13 hits in 7IP in 2 starts).

Who’s next guy to get the call?   Voth if they need a starter.  The only 40-man reliever left here is Rainey and he can’t find the plate (28ks and 12 walks in 16.2 innings).

Who’s next to get the Axe?   the JJ Hoover experiment may be over.  Both Mills and Sanchez probably should return to AA.  Dragmire continues to be in jeopardy of his roster spot when he gets healthy.

---

AA/Harrisburg 2019

Rotation: Crowe, Tetreault, Sharp, Mapes, Braymer*.  Changes from last time: Fedde got promoted to the MLB bullpen, replaced by the promoted Tetreault.

Bullpen: Bourque, Condra-Bogan, RPena, Guilbeau*, ABarrett with Baez, Ondrusek, Fuentes as swingmen/spot starters.  Changes from last time: Brinley on the D/L, JMIlls promoted, Ondrusek demoted from AAA’s D/L, Fuentes promoted up from High-A.

Who’s hot: Crowe remains the best AA starter and is probably now the best SP prospect in our system.  Bourque has a 29/5 K/BB ratio in 18 innings and its rather inexplicable that he a) remains in AA and b) has not yet gotten called into the MLB relief corps to alleviate the bullpen issues.  Tetreault has picked up right where he left off in High-A, with a 1.43 ERA through 3 AA starts and now has a 1.50 across 7 starts and two levels on the year.    Barrett continues to look solid and has MLB experience, so may be an option in the future.

Who’s not? Mapes has the worst ERA of the rotation, really the only starter  you can quibble with.  Pena and Guilbeau are struggling in the bullpen.

Who’s next guy to get the call?  Crowe, Bourque

Who’s next to get the Axe? Pena; the org has stuck by him a long, long time fora  16th round pick.  He’s 27 in AA and now in his 8th pro season here.  But an ERA in the 6s puts him on the chopping line when the next reliever needs to be promoted.

---

 

High-A/Potomac 2019

Rotation: Johnston, Borne*, Raquet*, ALee, MPena.  Changes from last time: Tetreault promoted, Reyes dumped to the pen after posting an ERA > 9.00.   Replaced in the rotation by Lee, who was bumped up from spot-starter/swingman.

bullpen:  Bogucki,  McKinney,  Bartow, JRomero, LReyes, German with Howard*,  Teel* as swingmen and (presumably) Nick Wells showing up soon.  Changes from last time: Acevedo released, Fuentes promoted, JRomero re-instated from XST, German and Teel promoted from Low-A.

Who’s hot:  I like what I see out of Lee in the rotation so far; he’s got the best ERA and peripherals of any High-A starter.   Teel and Bartow are the best relievers right now by stats, and Bartow has 2 of the 3 saves the staff has on the entire season (how is that possible?  In 14 victories they only have 3 saves.  that’s saying something).

Who’s not?  Raquet and Pena both have ERAs north of 7 in the rotation.  Nothing personal against Raquet, but I hated the draft pick at the time, and now he’s repeating high-A with the same crummy numbers and lack of swing and miss he exhibited there last year.  Every time I see him get shelled in a start its another indictment of that draft pick and that draft class in general.

Who’s next guy to get the call?  They’ve already promoted the two best arms (Tetreault and Fuentes).  No starters really pushing for a promotion right now.

Who’s next to get the Axe?  Bogucki is putting on > 2 runners an inning but was solid in High-A last year.  The fact that Reyes continues to have a roster spot astounds me: he is now in high-A for the 3rd year; he was also in High-A in  2016 and 2017, neither season of which merited his 2018 promotion to AA (where he got shelled).

---

Low-A/Hagerstown 2019

Rotation:  Alastre, Adon, Cate*, Irvin, FPeguero.  Changes from last time: Strom was demoted to XST, and the tandem starting seems to have been somewhat relaxed in that this set of 5 starters has rotated for several turns now.

Bullpen: Stoeckinger*, AGuillen, RWilliamson*, Tapani, Fletcher*, Day as swingmen/spot starters, along with Brasher, TTurner in the pen as more conventional relievers.  Changes from last time: Teel and German promoted, and RWilliamson and Tapani promoted from GCL/XST.

 

Who’s hot: Cate and Peguero, the two  starters I noted as being “hot” in the last post, remain the two best starters in Low-A.   Cate, a college Sr 2nd rounder last year, is probably too old for the level and needs to be moved up.  Fletcher, Stoeckinger and Guillen are pitching well in their “tandem” multi-inning roles.

Who’s not?  Irvin’s seasonal numbers are skewed by a 1ip/9-run outing, but he has the worst ERA in the rotation right now.  Brasher has gotten hit hard in limited action.  Alastre continues to not find the plate; he has 25 walks in 35 innings.

Who’s next guy to get the call?  Cate needs to move up stat.   Same with Peguero; he’s now 23 dominating Low-A.  Why are they still there?   Same with Fletcher; he’s now 23, was a senior sign and has 6 weeks of dominant numbers in low-A.  Why wait?

Who’s next to get the Axe?  Brasher seems most likely to be the next guy sent back to XST.

---

XST names of interest

• Where is Istler?    He was solid in AA and even had some AAA time last year.  Still unassigned.
• Where’s Jhon Romero?  He got assigned to High-A.
• Pantoja? Still missing; may have been a “quiet” release.
• No word yet about Seth Romero‘s rehab progress.
• Since the last posting, the team officially assigned 5 guys to Low-A and put them directly on the DL: Barnett, WDavis, Howell, SRomero, Troop.  Barrett and WDavis were on the GCL team last year.  Howell and Troop were “missing” names from last year’s Low-A team now found, and of course Romero remains perhaps the worst 1st round pick this team has had since the Aaron Crow/Jim Bowden debacle.

 

We’re now a couple turns through the four full season minor league rotations and I thought i’d take a quick gander at what the “rotations” looked like, with some short sample size judgements as to who has come out of the gate hot or not from a stats perspective.  I have not seen any of these games, just looking at milb.com’s stat page.  So feel free to add in any personal opinions 🙂

---

 

AAA/Fresno 2019

The rotation is looking like: McGowin, Copeland, Voth, Espino, Alvarez, with Dragmire as a spot-starter and Joe Ross having been yanked up to MLB bullpen duty (replaced by Alvarez).  Espino returns to the fold, having signed elsewhere as a MLFA a couple years back.

The Bullpen is looking like: AAdams, Rainey, Hoover, Nuno, Self, Cordero and Bacus (recently promoted to replace Austen Williams, himself promoted to cover for MLB injuries).

Who’s hot: Voth and McGowin have started well out of the rotation, Voth sporting a 16/1 K/BB ratio and McGowin 12/2.  I’m liking the first start from off-season signing Copeland too.   In the bullpen, Adams has 5 innings, 1 hit and 11 punch outs while Hoover has yet to give up a hit (though.. he’s walked 7 guys in 6 innings).

Who’s not?  Dragmire.  In three appearances so far, he’s pitched 9  2/3rds innings, given up 21 hits and only struck out 3 guys.   Ouch.  In the bullpen, both Rainey and Hoover have more walks than Ks so far.

Who’s next guy to get the call?   Honestly, it might be time to give Adams another shot.  His numbers merited the promotion moreso than Williams (who has the highest ERA in Fresno).  Next time there’s a spot start you have to think Voth is putting his name first in line.

Who’s getting the Axe?  Dragmire seems to be in trouble; he’s a MLFA re-signing so I can’t imagine the team has much invested in him, especially now that Alvarez and Espino are in the AAA rotation.

---

 

AA/Harrisburg 2019

Rotation: Crowe, Fedde, Sharp, Mapes, Braymer*, with  swingman/spot starts by Baez and MSanchez (who we get back after having flipped him for Jimmy Cordero on the AAA squad).

Bullpen: Bourque,  Brinley, Condra-Bogan, JMills*, RPena,  Guilbeau*, ABarrett (Bacus already promoted).  Great to see Barrett back here and hope he can re-contribute at the MLB level.

Who’s hot: Crowe and Fedde in the rotation: Crowe’s given up just 6 baserunners in his first two starts, Fedde just 7.  Mapes has an 11/1 K/BB ratio in his two starts.  In the bullpen, Barrett and Condra-Bogan have been solid.

Who’s not?  Sterling Sharp has a 6.30 ERA through 2 starts.  Bourque and Gilbeau have elevated whips but they’ve only thrown a handful of innings.

Who’s next guy to get the call?  I think Crowe may merit a promotion to AAA if he keeps this up for the rest of the month, perhaps to cover for injury or if one of our veteran guys exercises an opt-out.   We know Fedde is staying put to serve as the Nats 6th starter.

Who’s next to get the Axe?   Nobody really; Sharp has the highest ERA but he’s a solid prospect who is in AA at age 23.  We may have to keep an eye on Guilbeau; 2019 is his make-or-break season after two successive full seasons in high-A.

---

High-A/Potomac 2019

Rotation:  Johnston, Borne*, Tetreault, Raquet*, MPena, LReyes with swingman/spot starts by Howard*,  ALee,

bullpen:  Acevedo, Bogucki, Fuentes,   McKinney,  Bartow,

Who’s hot: Tetreault and perhaps Malvin Pena in the rotation, McKinney & Fuentes in the bullpen.

Who’s not?  Reyes’ first start was not good.   Bourne’s sporting a 2.31 whip so far.  And Howard has given up 12 hits in 6 IP.

Who’s next guy to get the call?  Nobody really screaming for a promotion so far; if you had to pick one of each i’d go with Tetrault and Fuentes (who is just 21 but has started great).

Who’s next to get the Axe?  Reyes struggled last year in AA; if he can’t get guys out this year in High-A he’s not long for the league.  Borne missed all of 2018 but is repeating a level and is now 25; its put up or shut up time.

---

Low-A/Hagerstown 2019

Rotation:  Alastre/Day, Adon, Cate*/Tapani, Irvin/Teel*, FPeguero/AGuillen, Strom/Stoeckinger*

bullpen:   German,  Fletcher*

Lots of “tandem” starting going on, though the roles seem to have settled into the “starter” going 4-5 and the tandem guy typically going 2-3.  So its likely at some point the tandem guys either move into starters or purely bullpen roles.

Who’s hot: Peguero and Cate.  Peguero has 10/1 K/BB in 10 IP while Cate has struck out 12 in 9.   Both the “relievers” in Hagerstown have been solid: German sporting 8 Ks and a 0.75 whip in 4 games, and Fletcher an even better 0.53 whip in 3 outings.

Who’s not? Alastre; the opening day starter has 11 walks and 12 hits given up in his 12 IP of work.  Adon’s first start was a struggle; he’ll get another crack at it tonight before passing too much judgement.

Who’s next guy to get the call? I’d promote Peguero and Fletcher first from each group.

Who’s next to get the Axe?  Alastre is only 20, but is repeating low-A with similar results to last  year.

---

 

XST names of interest

• Where is Istler?    He was solid in AA and even had some AAA time last year
• Where’s Jhon Romero?
• Pantoja?  I wonder if he’s been released as a 25yr old and we just havn’t seen it updated on milb.com yet.

In order to move on from my Fantasy Baseball post, here’s a mailbag that WP Nats Beat reporter Jesse Dougherty posted on 3/25/19.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/03/24/nationals-mailbag-regular-season-is-just-about-here/?utm_term=.e92f4a56efd8

Interesting notes here from today: the demotions of Adrian Sanchez in particular, which seems to indicate that NRI and 2016 7th round draft pick Jake Noll may very well be making this team.  Noll signed for $190k in 2016, which definitely wasn’t a senior sign/throw away pick out of FGCU, but he’s gotten absolutely zero prospect love in his career thus far.  He was ranked 26th on 2080 Baseball’s 2019 list, and got an “Honorable Mention” in John Sickel‘s post 2016 minorleaguebaseball.com list, but that’s it.  And how he’s set to be the Nats primary backup middle infielder until Howie Kendrick can return.  So great for Noll.

—

Questions she took and how i’d answer them:

—

Q: What do you think the chances are the Nats extend Rendon? I’m not too optimistic after this most recent report.

A: A good question.  I’m guessing that at this point, Anthony Rendon will head to FA.  He better have an action plan though with his agent Scott Boras, who has absolutely blown several high profile cases over the last couple of off seasons.

That being said, I’m hoping Rendon is taking a hard look at the landscape, taking a hard look at the contracts that some of his comparables are signing (Nolan Arenado 8yr/$260M for $32.5 AAV) and perhaps coming back to the table before he faces an embarassing off-season.  Rendon is a year older than Arenado, less accomplished from awards and year end recognition … and will have to eat deferred money to stay here.  Can a deal get done?

Dougherty notes that Rendon has instructed Boras to work on an extension, and they’ll work into the season.  So perhaps we’ll see something like a 6yr/$180M deal in our future with deferred dollars.

—

Q: How is the team preparing for having AAA players in Fresno instead of Syracuse? Any chatter from likely minor leaguers about the switch?

A: That’s a great question, one that fans like us can’t really answer other than noting the obvious: the team has “demoted” the likes of Erick Fedde and Spencer Kieboom to Harrisburg so they can be a couple hours away in case of an emergency.  Meanwhile longer-term strategic assets like Joe Ross, Kyle McGowin, and Raudy Read are instead heading to Fresno to get stretched out or further tested against more senior competition.

Ironically, Spencer and his younger brother, phenom prospect Carter Kieboom, are both scheduled to now be in AA.  I wonder if they’ll room together 😉

Dougherty notes the same players that I do, but has little else to offer in terms of player insights.

—

Q: Can you talk about the OF depth issue with Michael A. Taylor’s injury and Kendrick’s? Any insight on the organization’s view of its internal outfield options? Any indications if General Manager Mike Rizzo thinks he needs to go outside the organization to address?

A: Well, it certainly didn’t help when exactly one third of the outfielders on the 40-man got hurt (Taylor and Kendrick).  So the team is breaking camp with their 3 starters and their one remaining option in Andrew Stevenson to start the season.  Depth?  The next likely guy up probably is Rafael Bautista, who was on the 40-man last  year and got DFA’d/assigned to AAA .  Our top OF prospect is probably Gage Canning, who was in short season last year.  Brian Goodwin just got released by Kansas City; maybe he’s worth taking a MLFA flier on and getting him back into the fold.   The team has added some MLFA 4-A type talents that are also sitting in AAA; my guess is that they’d go there first for a short-term fix.  If it turned out that Taylor was done for the season, may be then we’d go for an outside option.

Dougherty says that since Taylor’s injury is short term, nothing will happen, and that in-house options like Wilmer Difo and Matt Adams can cover.

—

Q: Jake Noll has been tearing it up in spring training, Nats’ OF depth is thin, does Jake have any experience in the OF? Could his success translate to the big leagues soon?

A: This question was a day early, given today’s press reports of Noll’s likely making the team.   So his hot spring training has definitely paid off.

I see no evidence of his playing the OF: he spent his first two pro seasons playing 2B, then split time between 1B and 3B last  year.  Conventional wisdom would seem to indicate that this level of athleticism on the dirt would translate to at least a passing ability to play LF in a pinch.  But it doesn’t seem like that’s his path for now.

Dougherty notes that Noll played some OF in high school, but he only played the three positions in which he has pro experience this spring.

—

Q: Do Nats fans boo Bryce on April 2?

A:  I’ve been asked this many times by my Bryce Harper hating friends.  His first AB will be a video tribute and a standing ovation.  Perhaps by the 3rd or 4th AB he may get some boos.  He’s slated to face Scherzer in the 4th game of the season on regular rest, unless the team decides to keep its rotation intact.

Dougherty seems to think the reception will be chilly.  We’ll see!  Maybe the team should sell out the stadium to traveling Philly fans to make a buck like they used to in the old days.

 

 

As many expected, Sammy Solis was cut loose on 3/10/19, given his unconditional release.  Solis was a very long-serving player for this team, a 2nd round pick in 2010, and for a time was a very valuable lefty option out of the MLB bullpen.  But his 2018 struggles led many to believe he’d be non-tendered last fall, and more to believe that he had basically a 3 week try-out this spring.

It was this last scenario that led us to this point; This was a key cut-off point for cutting players and only being responsible for 1/6th of the agreed-upon salary.  So Solis departs with a $147k check for his time and faces a tough future.  He’s a tough sell to put on the 40-man roster b/c of his lack of minor league options, but should have no issues getting a MLFA deal and go pitch out of someone’s AAA team to try to re-establish his ability to get lefties out (which left him for some reason in 2018).

So, ripple effects on the Nat’s bullpen.

Here’s  the bullpen I predicted we’d go with at the beginning of spring training.

• Closer: Doolittle
• Setup: Rosenthal, Barraclough
• RH middle: JMiller, Suero, Glover
• LH Middle; Grace

other 40-man options in camp: Rainey, AAdams, AWilliams, Cordero, Bourque

Primary non-40man candidates to discuss: Nuno, Copeland

But,  there’s been some developments.

• Glover has been hurt; he’s thrown just a third of an inning so far, and seems more and more likely to be hitting the D/L.
• Miller has thrown just two innings … also struggling with injury.
• Joe Ross, our supposed 6th starter … has yet to start a game.  But he’s looked pretty darn good in relief.  Is he angling to make the team in a longer relief role?  It may also be meaningless; Voth and McGowin also aren’t starting a ton of games in MLB camp and are expected to be the bulk of the AAA roster.
• MLFA Scott Copeland has looked excellent and may be pushing for a 25-man spot if Miller/Glover start on the D/L.
• Tanner Rainey has gotten shelled, and for all we’ve heard about his arm, has zero Ks.
• Vidal Nuno seems to be the most likely person to benefit from the Solis release; who else in camp is a lefty reliever?
• J.J. Hoover is still out there too as a veteran MLFA who may get some opportunities based on past track record.
• Only Miller and Grace now remain without Options … but both seem nearly guaranteed to make the team (or the D/L).
• As noted elsewhere, Austen Williams has been great … can he make the team?
• We do have a free 40-man spot for the taking.

One other note.  Not that we’re talking about starters right now … and yes I know you’re supposed to ignore spring training stats, but you just cannot ignore what’s going on with Erick Fedde.  7 innings … SIXTEEN hits allowed to go along with five walks.  That’s nearly a 3.00 whip.  Is it time to pull the plug on the Fedde-as-starter experiment?  Is he better served throwing in relief?

If I had to predict the bullpen today?

• Closer: Doolittle
• Setup: Rosenthal, Barraclough
• RH middle: Suero, Copeland
• LH Middle; Grace, Nuno
• D/L: Miller, Glover

What is your reading of the ST bullpen tea leaves this week?

Another week passing with barely any FA movement, and another set of questions taken by Jamal Collier.

Big Nats news of the week seems to be the team beating Michael A. Taylor in arbitration … over $250k.   That’s 1/10th of 1% of their team payroll, for context.  I *hate* it when teams go to arbitration battle with their players; by all accounts the team basically trashes the player in the presentation, making all the arguments about why they’re NOT worth the salary.  I think it completely poisons the relationship between player and management.  The Nats under prior management used to do this constantly; they were among the league leaders for  years in arbitration cases.  This is the 5th arb case that I believe Mike Rizzo has argued in the 10 years he’s been in charge.  Here’s the previous cases the team has argued:

• 2006: Alfonso Soriano.  After acquiring him they immediately went to war with him … which was only a precursor to the Spring Training war, basically forcing him to play the OF.   Great way to treat your team’s best player.  Asked for $12M, got #10M when the club beat him, and he left via FA after the season.
• 2007: Chad Cordero: Cordero beat the Nats in Arb over $500k difference.  The team and player were able to come to a pre-arb agreement in 2008 but Cordero’s days were numbered.
• 2007 John Patterson: The team and Patterson were way, way off (1.8M vers 1M); the club won, then releaesd Patterson before the season had even started.
• 2008: Felipe Lopez: the club beat Lopez over $300k … then released him mid-season.
• 2009: Shawn Hill; went to battle again over $275k … then released him in the spring before they had to pay a dime.
• 2010: Sean Burnett: went to battle over $150k.  That’s right: 150,000, one of the smallest argument values I can find in the last decade.  Club won.
• 2010: Brian Bruney: just after acquiring the guy (similar to this year’s Kyle Barraclough situation) they immediately argued against him in arbitration and won.  Bruney never contributed in a meaningful way and the team cut him loose in May.  I thought at the time he was suffering from a “Bruised Ego” as the source of his crummy performance, but he didn’t pitch any better the next year for the White Sox and was soon out of the league.
• 2012: John Lannan, who the club beat to only pay him $5M versus $5.7M … then immediately relegated him to AAA for most of the season.  He made 33 starts for Washington in 2011 … then 24 starts for Syracuse in 2012.  What an insult.  Unsurprisingly, he was non-tendered before the 2013 season.
• 2015: Jerry Blevins, who beat the team for $200k … and was then dumped in trade a few weeks later in what I read at the time (and still believe) as an act of petulance from Rizzo.

We havn’t had an arb hearing since the 2015 debacle.  But now it seems like the team will battle not once but twice.

Of these 10 hearings (including the Taylor hearing): here’s some interesting stats:

• Club has won 7 of the 10 hearings
• Seven of the Nine players that went to arbitration were GONE from the team (one way or another) that same season.   Most of them cut either in spring training or quickly there-after.

So, it doesn’t bode well for Taylor or Barraclough’s future the fact that they’re arguing against the team.

Lets get to the questions.

—

Q: How are the Nationals matching up against the rest of the division this 2019 season?

A: What, you can’t read the papers?  Here’s the summary:

• Nats have filled every hole they had and spent more than 14 other teams combined this off-season.  They’ve conservatively added 10-12 “wins” and are projecting on Fangraphs to win the division.
• Braves have grown a very solid core and did a little FA work on the edges, but have no reason not to repeat what they did last year.  They’re only projecting to a $122M payroll, and that’s AFTER signing Josh Donaldson to a $23M one year deal.
• Phillies have signed a couple guys, but already had a fully formed rotation and still have $50M of room.  But they could still land one of the two big FAs and improve quickly.
• Mets have made some odd choices (acquiring Robinson Cano), have a ton of payroll just to Cano and Cespedes, and have completely re-made their bullpen.  Are they contenders?
• Marlins continue to be a dumpster fire, projecting to spend just $84M in 2019.

So i’m predicting Nats win division, Braves to WC, Phillies just miss out but still win 88 games, Mets go about .500 and Marlins lose 105 games.  Its going to be the most competitive division in the game.

Collier predicts a competitive division with four teams actually trying.  That’s refreshing.

—

Q: What are the Nationals’ needs? Do they need left-handed bullpen help and maybe a utility player?

A: In an ideal situation sure they’d love more Lefty bullpen options.  But they’re kinda out of cash.  They could also use rotation insurance, but looking at the list of starters still available (nearly 20 who had MLB starts last year, several of whom could improve nearly any rotation in the game) I doubt we’ll be able to spin a MLB deal for any of them.

Collier agrees, thinks the bench is fine.

—

Q: I would rather have another pitcher like Dallas Keuchel or even Wade Miley, and let Harper go. What do you think?

A: well, this guy clearly missed the news, b/c Miley is already gone (to Houston, improving them to be at least a top 10 rotation now if not slightly better).  But this asker also clearly doesn’t know just how close to the luxury tax the team is.

If you’re going to go over … then frigging go over.  Sign Keuchel, sign another loogy, blow past the cap by $20M, Sign Harper, blow payes st it by $50M.  It seemed to do pretty well for Boston last year.

I don’t think there’s a team in the league that wouldn’t like having Keuchel in the fold (maybe the Cubs or Indians); certainly Keuchel would be an upgrade over Joe Ross for us.

All this being said … the tea leaves say one thing to me pretty clearly; Harper is gone, the team has already moved on.  Is this even a discusCollsion?

Collier notes they’re about $11M under the cap, have indicated pretty frequently they intend to stay below it, and 

—

Q: With the injury history regarding Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin and Ross, is it possible there will be a six-man rotation instead of five?

A: So, on the one hand its true that no team can go 162 games without having to rely on additional starters…. but it’d be stupid to go to a 6-man rotation with a bunch of veterans like what the Nats are projecting.  This isn’t high school; these guys are trained professionals, highly paid, and are conditioned to pitch ever 5 days.

What is true is this: our 6th, 7th and 8th depth chart starters WILL get starts.  So while it’d be awesome to have a ton of depth … you have to store it somewhere.  So project Erick Fedde and Austin Voth and some veteran 35-yr old MLFA  hanging on for one more shot to contribute in 2019.

Collier says the same thing about routines.

—

Q; Any word yet on non-roster invitees to Spring Training? 

A: Yes; there’s going to be a few of them.  Some of them will look great.  A couple will stick around.  In fact, we do an annual post here every year about NRIs who make it.  Here was 2018s http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15657 and 2017’s: http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=13409 .

Last year, 1 NRI made the team out of spring, another 4 played for the team in the 2018 season, and Edwin Jackson was an NRI for us and excelled for Oakland.

So, NRIs are important.

Collier notes a couple of specific NRI arms who may very well be options to make the bullpen at the expense of someone like Sammy Solis.