This is the most exciting thing Phillies fans have seen in the last 6 weeks. Photo phillymag.com
First off; congrats to the Philadelphia Phillies, who thanks to late season collapse basically have locked up the #1 overall pick in 2016. A five game game “lead” for the #1 overall pick next year with just nine games left on your season is pretty unassailable, especially when you look at the lineups they’re putting out as of late. Here’s the Reverse Standings for 2015. And here’s the official 2016 draft order from MLB.
Your Washington Nationals are drafting 18th overall. This is a somewhat precarious spot to be; high enough to guarantee a decent talent, low enough to tempt General Managers to punt the unprotected pick with a QO-attached free agent signing. Somehow I doubt the Nats will go that route but you never know; the departures of our nine projected free agents will free up north of $60M of 2015 payroll, and you have to think Rizzo will be spending some of that to bolster the squad.
The top of the 2016 draft looks pretty amazing, and across the board pundits are talking about the strength of the 2016 class over the 2015 class. I heard one pundit say that just 2-3 of the guys who went top10 this year would also go top-10 next year. Here’s the leaders in the clubhouse for #1 overall pick next summer:
- Alex Hansen: RHP from U of Oklahoma with a huge arm (94-98), huge size (6’8″) and who is improving.
- AJ Puk: LHP from U of Florida; 2nd in the nation in K/9 last year as a sophomore friday starter for one of the best teams in the nation in the toughest conference … and will only get better.
- Blake Rutherford: OF from Chaminade Prep in LA; basically has starred at every prep event he can enter (18-U National team member as a *junior*, USA tourney of Stars MVP, great showing at the Area Code Games).
- Jason Groome: LHP from the IMG Academy. Vanderbilt commit. another USA tourney of Stars and Area code Game all-star, sits 91 and hits 95 as a 17-yr old. Attends the IMG Academy, formerly the Nick Bolloteri tennis academy but now basically a pro-prep HS with a $70k annual tuition that is rapidly becoming the best athletics school in the nation irrespective of the sport. This is good b/c IMG has great in-house talent and will play a fantastic schedule of elite Florida programs and national invite tournaments since, well, the whole point of going there is to prepare yourself for drafting.
- Riley Pint: RHP from Kansas, LSU commit. Sits 92-95 and can hit 98, again as a 17yr old, so he projects pretty well.
Most of the pundits I read put one of these 5 guys as the #1 overall pick this year. The Phillies have a new management team and may go the “safer” route with a college hurler (Puk or Hansen), but the only bat on this list (Rutherford) could be the better long term player with less injury risk.
The Braves (currently slotted for #3 overall pick) have to be pretty darn excited with their prospects; no matter who the Phillies and Reds ahead of them pick, they’ll still get to choose from several #1 overall quality guys. Being the Braves, they’ll want to go with one of the Florida kids (Puk or Groome) even though neither hails from the area (Iowa and New Jersey respectably).
Rizzo’s MO with these mid picks has been to look for a top talent guy who falls for some reason, often injuries. No way to know who that might be until literally the draft.
The Nats should be in for a very interesting offseason. These picks (3 or 4) should only add to their options (meaning it could let them trade some prospects, if that’s how they decide to go). They also have numerous pro players who have value, either to keep or to hold. We’ve talked about some of the big ones, but consider Danny Espinosa. He’s got three years of control coming, and doesn’t have the kind of numbers that suggest he’d be expensive. So three years of a top defensive SS that also looks to have rediscovered some pop for maybe $15-20m? That is a valuable player. He could be the Nats SS or maybe bring back a guy like Tyson Ross (I think we’d have to add something, but maybe not someone highly ranked). Or keep him and Escobar and trade someone significant like Rendon. Or, heaven forbid, see what Trea Turner brings back?
I suspect that most of you will think I am crazy for some of those suggestions, but any good GM should be willing to consider trading anyone, depending on the return. Baseball is unlike basketball or even football. You need a multi player core of above average players, ideally with a superstar in there, with additional average types to round out the roster. I am just saying that the Nats have enough flexibility and value in different players that they can feel out the market to see what other teams would pay for a particular player, and reshape the team from there. The only guys with negative trade value are Zim and Werth.
Wally
4 Oct 15 at 8:39 pm
Generally, I’d advise not trading up “the spine” if you can’t help it. If you have a good catcher, shortstop or Center fielder in your grasp, build around them. If you have depth in those positions, then by all means exploit it. For that reason i don’t see the team moving either Turner or Taylor.
But yeah otherwise I agree; Rizzo needs to be flexible. Maybe i’ll do a quickie payroll analysis, factoring in guesses on arbitration bumps to see how much Rizzo has to work with based on some assumptions. A good post idea.
Todd Boss
4 Oct 15 at 9:12 pm
Hi Todd and all, been limiting posting for lack of time but you’ve had some remarkable posts here. Just wanted to poke my head in to wave and pipe in a couple of off season points beyond the more readily discussed:
1) The 2016 draft should be viewed not even as 3 extra picks (assuming declined QO for Span, Desmond, Zimm), but far more. The additional high payroll slots afford the Nats the ability to sign below slot on high slot amount players and accumulate some serious surplus to draft players like Tyler Watson who are college signs otherwise thought to be unsignable. Watson and Schrock (college junior) worked out well, and the Nats were drafting with a far lower pool than they will have next year. The leap forward from the 2014 draft, and the non-signs of Suarez and Byler, was one of the bright spots of the organization and perhaps the influence of Miller.
2) If in fact the money management and negotiation is improved, then that will translate this winter not only into free agent discussions, but internally with free agents to be, and in considerations of Cuban talent (Miller signed Chapman). An if, but an if worth watching.
3) Injury-prone position players are a huge and understated problem at the ML level. Werth and Zimmerman are frequent flyers to the DL, as are Rendon and Ramos. Span, a FA, is also a frequent flyer. Absent great depth, this has proven to be disruptive and there are no easy answers. Harper proved his durability this year, as did Taylor and Escobar. But the team has to field players who can stay on the field.
4) Injuries to starters and relievers also derailed the team – Fister and Strasburg and bullpen folks. But other than Strasburg, the bullpen injuries were more unexpected and atypical. The team needs to deploy Scherzer this winter to help train and educate others on the staff and in the organization about preparing themselves for the grind and properly caring for one’s body.
5) The season ended with a few encouraging signs. Roark’s start today was reason to consider him for a return to the rotation in 2016, especially if it affords flexibility for trading Strasburg to a) get a haul from a team looking for a splash and b) package in a high salaried player they want to dump (Werth, Papelbon). Scherzer has shown enough all around this year to peg him as a staff ace. Gio has more in his tank. Ross will get his chance. Roark deserves his as well. I think the big wild card is how ready the organization believes Lucas Giolito is to compete for the rotation next year. It may seem like a rush to some, but the Nats have had no problem promoting starters of far less pedigree from AA, and Giolito has shown flashes of dominance there that may certainly compete well in spring training against Cole, Jordan, or others (Voth). That is also to say that whomever the Nats trade, there is always the prospect that they bring back a legitimate high ceiling prospect starter, specifically left handed starter, in return.
6) I remain a strong fan of Rizzo, and am far less inclined to erase his body of work over the Papelbon drama, but I did take issue with his not trading Zimmerman in the preseason, especially because at the time he was replaceable (by Roark). I do think the Nats, as an organization, will learn that it is unwise to go into a season with so many players in their walk years. As much as the presumption that players will step up their performance may bear out, others may plateau or otherwise underdeliver because they are pressing.
7) Team defense has to improve and trades and acquisitions will reflect that. Danny Espinosa delivers defense at SS and 2B that is not replaced right now from within the organization. The Nats have shown no confidence in Escobar at SS. Rendon is so smooth at 3B (and he would be sold low right now). Turner and his anticipated role is a mystery. Werth is a liability and that won’t change. I experience him as akin to Mike Morse (with less saleability), because there is no room for both him and Zimmerman at 1B, and he cannot be accommodated in the OF defensively. As pathetic as the team’s offense was in the 2014 NLDS, Werth and Desmond are two of those who choked. I’m all for moving Werth (and if Mel Upton can be packaged, anyone can be) and replacing him with a far more dynamic controllable star in the making.
8) Turner remains a key answer to team planning. Where will he play? What I have been most excited about has been his catalytic effect as a winner. His teams play better. Harrisburg improved after he blew into town. Syracuse was a much better team with him on the field. He has the “it” factor that a championship team needs. Span has it and the team sorely missed his winning presence. If Span indeed goes, the Nats will need another winning catalyst.
9) A major retooling of the minor leagues is well underway and necessary. Two additions this past offseason (Turner and Ross) were the top achieving players in the minors this year (and yes, I factored in Robles). An acquisition last year, Rivero, has graduated particularly well this year. The paucity of home grown talent at the upper levels (I am far less bullish on Severino) necessitates a position player talent infusion for organizational depth. This is something Rizzo is strong at, and I am looking forward.
10) Having Turner and Taylor in the lineup every day should afford a wise manager the opportunity for a disruptive lineup that really uses its speed. I’m hopeful for Difo’s continued maturing next year (presumably in AAA because those three could conceivably play at three positions and give the Nats RBI bats who can steal 50 plus bases. What an amazing lineup that would be, teamed with Harper, Rendon, and a couple of other producers. Were I to be the GM and team brass, I would look to that speed/power combo as part of team short and long term planning, especially with a talent like Robles racing through the system (assuming he stays healthy).
11) As for the money, there is enough going off the books now that the team can and will capitalize. The MASN mess will resolve soon enough as well. Signing Harper is a bog must for the organization. But I would lock up Ramos as well. I think he is a bounceback candidate and gives a lot of demonstrated stability to this staff. For me, Kieboom is the catcher to watch and the most important participant in the AFL for the organization. They should also invest that much more in scouting, especially with the draft to come.
forensicane
5 Oct 15 at 3:22 am
I’ll focus specifically on the draft here. Everyone seems most excited about the pitching at the top of this draft, although there is a good crop of college hitters not far behind, including several college corner OFs with power. I’ll keep saying it until I turn blue: the Nats need young bats, particularly power bats. Their system has very, very little power right now. If the Nats stay at #18, they would likely be able to get one of the top 10 hitters in the draft, at least if they don’t try to out-think the world and overpay some TJ kid who was projected in the top 10. (I’m still not sold on Fedde; he’s definitely no Giolito.)
However, the Nats will also have two or three comp picks (depending on whether they make the QO to Span in addition to JZim and Desi), so they’ll still have some half-decent picks even if they do sign a FA. With all the salary coming off the books, I think there is going to be a strong temptation to sign one or two, particularly a hitter of the JUpton/Cespedes/Heyward ilk, as we’ve discussed. We’ll see.
KW
5 Oct 15 at 5:29 am
Well Forensicane, I may cut and paste this comment to a coming post that’s titled, “GM for a day” and details what i’d do this off-season 🙂
Todd Boss
5 Oct 15 at 9:22 am
What do you guys think of re-signing Span if it looks like his health will check out? Although I admired Taylor’s clutch, that batting line and unfixed K tendency looks pretty ugly to project long term. And the guy had ha really long look this year, but didn’t look like he adjusted much to the finish. Span is lefty which we need badly, especially if we’re unable to marginalize Werth. Taylor looks more like 4th outfielder to me at this point. Maybe resign Span and hope Robles is on fast track to replace him in a couple years? Getting rid of the K machines in our lineup is a must. Finally getting rid of Desi in that regard, but do we want to fill a slot with Taylor who has same profile?
Danny is lefty bat as well. But can we really trust that bat or will he revert to old Danny? As mentioned earlier.. Rendon I would trade if we can get a huge haul. What a terrible year for him. Career high K rate, zero power, and BA in the 260’s, and absolutely zero clutch.
if we keep virtually same line up, Zimm health, Rendon turnaround, and Turner breakout will be keys to an effective offense.
Hard to put into words what a disaster Ramos was with the bat this year. If we’re going to keep him, that’s all the more reason we can’t have any more terribly weak links in the everyday lineup like Taylor. Again, the only decent stretch of baseball we played this year was with Span in the lineup, even hurt! Just hide Ramos in the 8 hole all year and let him play defense. Comical that he was MW’s chosen clean up hitter. I would so welcome a replacement for Ramos if possible. I think he his unfixable in his approach at the plate and of course his speed that makes a sloth look fast.
Marty C
5 Oct 15 at 9:58 am
Marty: I’m not entirely opposed to re-signing Span. Lefty bat (which we lack) and still can hit at the top of the order. Problem with span is this: his defense is slpping, badly. -10.2 UZR/150 in center this year; that’s really, really bad. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8347&position=OF#fielding . Michael Taylor? a positive 9.2 range factor in center this year. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11489&position=OF#fielding . That’s why i’m ok offering him a QO; if he takes it we are “stuck” with him for 2016 but it isn’t the worst move in the world.
Taylor: yeah he struggled as the season went on, badly. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=taylomi02&year=2015&t=b . I dunno what to make of him. Will he get better with more turns around the majors? How many ABs before we “know” what a hitter will be? I think I agree with you though; Taylor is looking more like a 4th OF.
So, here’s some scenarios:
– offer QO to Span, he takes it and your 2016 OF is Werth, Span, harper with Taylor, den Dekker as backups
– Get someone like Parra in FA; OF is Werth, Harper, Parra with Taylor/den Dekker
– Stand pat: Werth, Taylor, Harper with den Dekker and ?? as backups
Todd Boss
5 Oct 15 at 10:54 am
Just got the Washington Post breaking news item: Matt Williams out.
Todd Boss
5 Oct 15 at 11:23 am