Two games down, and my prognostication skills are looking good (2 for 2 in WC games).
Lets look at the ALDS series with pitching matchups
Toronto-Texas:
- Game 1: Price vs Gallardo
- Game 2: Stroman vs Hamels
- Game 3: Estrada vs Perez/Lewis (I’d guess Lewis)
- Game 4: likely Dickey v Holland
- Game 5: likely Price vs Gallardo rematch
Buehrle doesn’t make the post-season roster and sails into the sunset having gotten destroyed in his final outing (and torpedoing my fantasy championship in the process, handing a free win to Tampa’s starter on the evening).
Prediction: I like Toronto in this series, winning in 3 or 4 games. Toronto may struggle with Gallardo in game 1 but will have Price to shutdown Texas. Toronto is RHP heavy and shouldn’t struggle too much against Hamels in the homer-dome. Estrada and Dickey don’t sound like they’re scary but they’ve both been dominant in the 2nd half (Dickey in particular: 8-1 with a 2.80 ERA since the all-star break).
Kansas City-Houston:
- Game 1: Ventura v McHugh
- Game 2: Cueto vs Kazmir
- Game 3: Volquez vs Keuchel
- Game 4: likely Young vs McCullers
- Game 5: likely Ventura v McHugh rematch
KC catches a huge break only having to face likely Cy Young winner Keuchel once in this series. The rest of Houston’s rotation isn’t as impressive on a head to head basis. I think we might see the home team hold serve in all five games here the way the pitching match-ups look. I don’t see Keuchel losing, nor do I see McCullers losing his home start (even given his youth; he’s been excellent at home). Cueto had crummy numbers but finished relatively strong and Ventura can be a beast. Prediction: I like Kansas City in five.
OK, two confessions. The first is that I don’t pay that much attention to the AL. The other is that I was going to pick the Jays, but I now know that they’ve lost game 1 and are staring at Hamels in game 2, with Donaldson and Bautista at least wounded, if they play. But I’ll play fair and stay with a pick of the Jays, in five. I’ll say KC in five for the other series as well. I think KC is the better overall team, and Houston faded a bit in the second half, but the Astros have a pitching advantage. If Keuchel could go twice, it might flip the script.
KW
8 Oct 15 at 7:30 pm
I got both games last night wrong. Can’t believe the Blue Jays couldn’t get at Gallardo and yeah they’re in trouble now. Houston less surprising b/c they are such free swingers and the Royals really don’t have a lights-out ace like some teams. Lots of pundits picking Houston.
How amazing would a Houston-Chicago Cubs series be? 2012 records for those two teams: 55-107 and 61-101 (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2012-standings.shtml)
Todd Boss
9 Oct 15 at 9:09 am