As we did with the ALDS, Lets look at the NLDS series with pitching matchups and make some quick predictions:
New York Mets-Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Game 1: Kershaw vs deGrom
- Game 2: Greinke vs Snydergaard
- Game 3: Anderson vs Harvey
- Game 4: likely Matz/Colon vs Wood
- Game 5: likely Kershaw vs deGrom rematch
Prediction: I like Los Angeles in this series, in 5 games. I can’t see NY winning either game in LA, I see them easily winning Harvey’s start but then the Matz/Colon question for Game 4 could come back to haunt them. Matz hasn’t pitched in 2 weeks and Colon is 42 … but Colon dominated the Dodgers in his sole start against them this year. Meanwhile, Wood has plenty of experience with the Mets lineup from his time in Atlanta but has performed pretty poorly against them this season, so I could see this going game 5 in LA.
Chicago Cubs-St. Louis:
- Game 1: Lackey vs Lester
- Game 2: Garcia vs Hendricks
- Game 3: Wacha vs Arrieta
- Game 4: Lynn vs Hammel
- Game 5: likely Lackey vs Lester rematch
St Louis won the season series against Chicago … but lost 4 out of 6 in their two September Series. St. Louis is banged up, they have questions about some of their starters, and their all-important catcher will be playing with a split on his thumb. Hmm. Meanwhile. Chicago’s bats are just all-out fearsome; Schwarber-Bryant-Rizzo, each of which can hit the ball 450 feet at any moment. Lester pitched excellently his last time in St. Louis and Lester doesn’t scare anybody, while Garcia could control Chicago’s lefties in game 2. Honestly, I think Chicago gets a split in St. Louis and then takes care of business at home; they’re going to win Arrieta’s game 3 start (StL wastes perhaps their best starter against Arrieta) and then the season is on Lynn’s shoulders. Lynn’s last two Chicago starts: 6ip (total), 9 runs. Prediction: Chicago in 4.
The other key point in the NY-LA series is that the Met bats dried up down the stretch. The top of their rotation is still strong, so they should be able to stay in the games against K & G, but the Dodgers just look like the stronger team overall. Plus I’m mad at the Mets. Don’t screw it up, Donnie Baseball!
In the other series, it’s hard to say that a 100-win team limped home, but it feels like it. Wacha had a terrible Sept., so the game 3 match-up may not be the instant classic that it looks like on paper. I’ll take the Cubs in this one, although they’ve got to win one of the first two in STL to make it happen.
KW
9 Oct 15 at 1:15 pm
Well Todd, I hope you’re not a bettin’ man, as all four of our picks lost their first games, three of them at home. The Jays have now lost two and appear to be toast, despite their massive spending spree and prospect depletion. (The Jays are on the cover of SI this week, a week after Ole Miss. Who says the SI cover jinx is dead?)
Collins must be banking on not having to go five, as he left deGrom in for 121 pitches. He’s pushed his big three starters to a lot of pitches all year, as I’ve noted before. We’ll see what that does for them going forward.
The Royals survived despite another poor outing from Cueto. They face Keuchel in game 3, though, so they may have to play an elimination game in Houston just to get to game 5.
KW
10 Oct 15 at 7:38 am
Nope, not a betting man. Completely surprised so far at divisional series results. Lackey pitches into the 8th giving up 2 hits to that potent of a lineup? Kershaw gives up runs again? Toronto drops two straight at home?? what the heck is going on.
Todd Boss
10 Oct 15 at 1:37 pm
Well, the Cubs got the win they needed, and with Arrieta going in game 3 look like they may be in the driver’s seat. The Cards self-destructed in the Cubs’ big inning, and what the heck is Matheny doing with his starters, using Garcia for only two innings and then Lynn for one? Maybe he rolls out Wainright (who looked good) as a starter in game 4 or 5?
As for the Dodgers, ugh, what an ugly way to flip a series. Regardless of the “legality” of Utley’s slide (he could theoretically reach the bag, but it was very, very late), I’m still amazed that they declared him safe because he never touched the base.
KW
11 Oct 15 at 8:18 am