(Whoops! forgot to post this on friday. I have a good excuse; it was my kid’s 3rd birthday and we have family in town. I swear I didn’t “cheat” on the Harvey prediction in game 1 from last night … and I still think the Cubs win the series).
Post season predictions so far:
- Wild Card Games: (link to my prediction post): got both Houston and Cubs WC wins right.
- NLDS: (link to my prediction post): Got LA in 5 games wrong, got Cubs in 4 exactly right
- ALDS: (link to my prediction post): Got Toronto in 4 correct, got KC in 5 exactly right
Lets get to it; this series is going to be fun.
Mets-Cubs:
- Game 1: Harvey vs Lester
- Game 2: Snydergaard vs Arrieta
- Game 3: Hendricks vs deGrom
- Game 4: Hammel vs Matz/Colon?
- Game 5: likely Harvey vs Lester
- Game 6: likely Snydergaard vs Arrieta
- Game 7: likely Hendricks vs deGrom
Thoughts: Here’s a fun stat: The Mets went 0-7 against Chicago this year. *Winless* in seven games. New York dodged a major bullet by only having Snydergaard have to throw one inning in the NLDS game-5 clincher; when he got up in the third to warmup, that could have blown their NLCS rotation plans (even though he apparently threw 100 pitches between the pen and the game). Now as it stands, even though the Mets havn’t announced anything their rotation for the NLCS lines up so that their three best arms each will get 2 potential starts, with their best arm (deGrom) in line for crucial game 3 and game 7 outings. I see Harvey dominating in game one behind a raucous New York crowd, Arrieta being Arrieta in game 2, then having the strategic fun start. Do you throw Matz in game 4 with Chicago’s heavy lefties or go to the veteran Colon? Can New York steal one in Chicago somehow? Maybe the deGrom game 3?
I dunno; if the Cubs have already shown themselves capable of handling the Mets pitching staff, why would we think anything would change? Something just “feels” different about this Cubs team; they’re a bunch of kids on offense who have no connection to failings of yesteryear and their pitchers all made their bones primarily with others teams. I can see the Mets sneaking one or two games but think this is Chicago’s year. Prediction: Chicago in 6.
Good reference links for the above analysis:
- Baseball-reference’s post season page:
- SportsonEarth.com’s Will Leitch’s previews on the ALCS, NLCS
- Depth Charts at Baseball Prospectus.com
- MLB Probables:
Moving forward my comment from the ALCS post:
I almost had myself convinced to pick the Mets until I saw that the Cubs had dominated the season series 7-0. So I’ll go with the Cubs, despite the Met win in game 1. The Cubs have a lot riding on Arrieta being able to beat Syndergaard in game 2, though. If they lose with Lester and Arrieta, they’re in a serious hole.
KW
18 Oct 15 at 2:49 pm
KW totally agree; Mets have the pitching advantage so Cubs need to win Arrieta’s starts to compete. But, Cubs also have shown they’re not really afraid of any arm.
Todd Boss
18 Oct 15 at 4:33 pm
OK, now the Cubs are in a serious hole. Time to sacrifice a goat or something. It’s killing me to see the Mediocre Mets on the verge of the World Series.
KW
19 Oct 15 at 5:14 am
Well, there’s our football score in the ALCS, although they needed a couple of two-point conversions to get to 11-8. I wonder how many millions off his next contract Cueto has lost since the trade. On the flip side, Cespedes and Babe Murphy have made their asking prices artificially high.
KW
20 Oct 15 at 7:47 am