One additional consequence of the final Qualifying Offer-attached free agent coming off the board (Ian Desmond) is the finalization of the top of the 2016 Rule 4 (aka Amateur) draft.
Baseball America has the final order here, along with bonus pools. I had been keeping a working draft order myself where I kept track of the original positions and how much everyone’s picks “moved up” with all the lost picks. That XLS can be found here in Google Docs.
Here’s the first round and the compensation pick rounds:
| Orig First Round | Updated First Round | Team | Notes |
| 1 | 1 | Philadelphia Phillies | 1st 10 picks protected |
| 2 | 2 | Cincinnati Reds | 1st 10 picks protected |
| 3 | 3 | Atlanta Braves | 1st 10 picks protected |
| 4 | 4 | Colorado Rockies | 1st 10 picks protected |
| 5 | 5 | Milwaukee Brewers | 1st 10 picks protected |
| 6 | 6 | Oakland Athletics | 1st 10 picks protected |
| 7 | 7 | Miami Marlins | 1st 10 picks protected |
| 8 | 8 | San Diego Padres | 1st 10 picks protected |
| 9 | 9 | Detroit Tigers | 1st 10 picks protected |
| 10 | 10 | Chicago White Sox | 1st 10 picks protected |
| 11 | 11 | Seattle Mariners | |
| 12 | 12 | Boston Red Sox | |
| 13 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Lost for signing Zack Greinke | |
| 14 | 13 | Tampa Bay Rays | |
| 15 | Baltimore Orioles | Lost for siging Yovanni Gallardo | |
| 16 | 14 | Cleveland Indians | |
| 17 | 15 | Minnesota Twins | |
| 18 | Washington Nationals | Lost for signing Daniel Murphy | |
| 19 | San Francisco Giants | Lost for signing Jeff Samardzija | |
| 20 | 16 | Los Angeles Angels | |
| 21 | 17 | Houston Astros | |
| 22 | 18 | New York Yankees | |
| 23 | Texas Rangers | Lost for signing Ian Desmond | |
| 24 | 19 | New York Mets | |
| 25 | 20 | Los Angeles Dodgers | |
| 26 | 21 | Toronto Blue Jays | |
| 27 | Kansas City Royals | Lost for signing Ian Kennedy | |
| 28 | Chicago Cubs | Lost for signing John Lackey | |
| 29 | 22 | Pittsburgh Pirates | |
| 30 | 23 | St. Louis Cardinals | |
| QO Round | QO Compensation Round | ||
| 31 | 24 | San Diego Padres | confirmed for Justin Upton; costs Detroit 3rd round pick |
| 32 | 25 | San Diego Padres | confirmed for Ian Kennedy: costs Kansas City 1st round pick |
| 33 | 26 | Chicago White Sox | confirmed for Jeff Samardzija: costs San Francisco 1st round pick |
| 34 | Seattle Mariners | Would have been comp for Hisashi Iwakuma; Cancelled contract with LAD, re-signed w/ Seattle | |
| 35 | 27 | Baltimore Orioles | confirmed for Wei-Yin Chen: costs Miami 2nd round pick |
| 36 | Baltimore Orioles | would have been comp for Chris Davis: re-signed, no compensation pick | |
| 37 | Baltimore Orioles | would have been comp for Matt Wieters: took QO, no compensation pick | |
| 38 | 28 | Washington Nationals | confirmed for Ian Desmond: costs Texas 1st round pick |
| 39 | 29 | Washington Nationals | confirmed for Jordan Zimmermann: costs Detroit 2nd round pick |
| 40 | Houston Astros | would have been comp for Colby Rasmus: took QO, no compensation pick | |
| 41 | 30 | Texas Rangers | confirmed for Yovani Gallardo: Costs Baltimore 1st round pick |
| 42 | 31 | New York Mets | confirmed for Daniel Murphy: costs Washington 1st round pick |
| 43 | 32 | Los Angeles Dodgers | confirmed for Zack Greinke: costs Arizona 1st round pick |
| 44 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Would have been comp for Howie Kendrick: re-signed, no compensation pick | |
| 45 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Would have been comp for Brett Anderson: took QO, no compensation pick | |
| 46 | Toronto Blue Jays | Would have been comp for Marco Estrada: re-signed, no compensation pick | |
| 47 | Kansas City Royals | Would have been comp for Alex Gordon: re-signed, no compensation pick | |
| 48 | Chicago Cubs | Would have been comp for Dexter Fowler: re-signed, no compensation pick | |
| 49 | 33 | St. Louis Cardinals | confirmed for John Lackey: costs Cubs 1st Round Pick |
| 50 | 34 | St. Louis Cardinals | confirmed for Jason Heyward: costs Cubs 2nd Round Pick |
There’s additional movement in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but most of the key moves were in the top 50 picks.
Nationals Impact:
- We gave up what was originally the 18th overall pick and what would eventually be the 16th overall 1st round pick to sign Daniel Murphy. Arguable whether that was worth the signing; not the point of this post.
- The Nats now have the 28th and 29th overall picks in the draft as compensation for the loss of Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond. Those picks have moved up fully 10 slots thanks to forfeited picks above them.
- The Nats 2nd round pick is now 58th overall, up from 76th overall when the draft board first was published.
- The Nats 3rd round pick is now 94th overall, up fully 20 slots from its original spot.
- The Nats 4th round pick is 124th overall, and subsequent picks will be that slot number plus 30 for each round. So 124th, 154th, 184th, etc.
So, despite giving up our first rounder the team has three picks in the first 58 spots. Not too bad.
Who has interesting looking drafts coming up?
- Cincinnati has the most bonus money, just slightly more than Philadelphia, thanks to getting an additional Competitive Balance pick at the end of the 1st round. So Cincinnati drafts #2, #35, #43 and #79.
- San Diego gets the #8, #24, #25, #48 and #71 picks thanks to QO compensation and competitive balance picks.
- Atlanta gets #3, #40 and #44 overall and has the 4th largest bonus pool. In a draft like this is shaping up to be (top heavy but no clear cut #1), this could be a pretty good spot to be in; not having to blow extra dollars on a 1-1 pick but still getting a 1-1 quality player.
- the Los Angeles Dodgers somehow keep a ton of good picks; drafting now #20th, #32 and #36 overall. And it could have been even better had they gotten two more QO comp picks.
- Chicago Cubs; on the other end of the spectrum, the Cubs have gone completely all-in, forfeiting their 1st rounder, their comp pick and their 2nd rounder in FA signings. They have just $2.245M in bonus money, or less than the Nats gave Erick Fedde.
- Close to them is Detroit, who keeps their protected 1st rounder but blow their 2nd and 3rd rounders; so they draft 9th overall … and then not again until #115.
I am interested to see what they do with these picks. Kind of thought the bonus pool would be higher but they have been creative lately.
Thornton to Pods on a minor league deal. Surprised he couldn’t get a major league deal, since his velo is still pretty good and the results have been very good.
Wally
3 Mar 16 at 9:13 am
I like 28 and 29 as a good place to get a 2nd tier college arm. Right around that area last year (http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=year_round&year_ID=2015&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&) went Jon Harris and Kyle Funkhauser last year (two very accomplished college guys). In 2014 there was a huge run on HS guys right at that time-frame; nobody i’d heard of. 2013 featured Sean Manaea and Ryan Stanek, again two accomplished college guys who I really liked and was looking at b/c the Nats gave up their 1st rounder that year for Soriano.
Todd Boss
3 Mar 16 at 1:27 pm
There was this great study done a couple of years ago (Todd probably knows) where they looked at the success rate of draft picks.
It turns out the first 50 picks are the Mother Lode. There’s a 90% chance these 50 will at least get a cup of coffee in the show.
After that it’s all a crapshoot. 4th round, 12 round doesn’t make a great difference.
Mark L
3 Mar 16 at 10:57 pm
I will cry if they invest #s 28 & 29 on pitchers. They’ve GOT to start spending more of their higher picks on bats, like they did last season.
The 2016 draft is supposed to be quite deep. With the general emphasis on drafting pitchers, the Nats should be able to get one of the top 10-15 hitters in the draft at 28/29. My suspicion is that one pick will be for a hitter and the other will be for a pitcher who had been a top-15 projection but who has arm issues. They’ll hope the pitcher signs below slot so they can pump the money into a hard-to-sign later in the draft. However, some of the pitchers who have fallen to late in the first round still want the projected money they thought they were going to get. I believe Fedde was a case in point.
KW
4 Mar 16 at 8:48 am
KW– thank you, thank you, thank you.
Left handed batters and pitchers please.
Mark L
4 Mar 16 at 10:47 pm
If it were me, I’d actually think about taking two hitters at 28 & 29. But the Nats have a thing about bargain-hunting with pitchers. Considering how Giolito supposedly looked yesterday, maybe they know what they’re doing.
KW
5 Mar 16 at 8:45 am
KW: yes I agree too. I noted that right in that 28-35 range has been a good spot recently to get good accomplished college arms. I don’t think I’m advising the team to focus on them given what they have in the system and what they need. Now that being said, you don’t draft for need. Just because we have Trea Turner doesn’t mean we pass over a high-end SS prospect if he falls to you and he’s the BPA on your board. Especially in the 1st two rounds, where (as noted before) a huge % of the guys make it to the bigs, you draft BPA every time. So if that means that at 28 and 29 we find two good college arms, so be it. Worst case is they press existing guys for spots and you use them as trade bait to acquire the hitter you want.
Todd Boss
6 Mar 16 at 12:00 pm
The Zim health news is concerning, although not surprising with PF. Just look at Pujols. Maybe the Nats saw this coming and it’s why they tendered a contract to TMo. If that’s true, I’d wish they brought in a better RHH, tho.
Wally
7 Mar 16 at 8:51 am
I agree about BPAs for the most part. It’s much harder to draft for specific positional need in MLB than it is in the NFL, for example. The Nats did go very heavily for OFs last year, though, with their first three Rule 4 picks and with their big-money international signee. The Nats now don’t have as much need in the OF, but if the best hitter available is an OF, particularly a power guy, I think would still take him. The organization desperately needs power, at all positions.
As for pitchers, I understand Mark’s plea for lefties. Good lefties are rare commodities, however, and they tend to go higher and are often over-drafted. The righties still available when the Nats pick are, in general, likely to be more talented than the lefties, so the better value will be in righties.
KW
7 Mar 16 at 5:27 pm
Wally, even if the Nats feared lingering PF issues with Zim, it’s hard to see how they could have made much of an investment in insurance at a position where they’ve already got a lot of sunk costs in Zim. That said, I think Zim’s issues were probably in the back of their minds when they pursued Zobrist and when they signed Murphy. If Zim is going to be out for a while, I think the best option is Murphy at 1B and Turner at 2B. I wouldn’t be excited about a C-Rob/T-Mo platoon. T-Mo just isn’t a viable regular, or semi-regular, for a contending team.
KW
7 Mar 16 at 5:37 pm