With almost no analysis and just absorbing information from national pundits and stuff I’ve read, here’s my 2016 prediction piece. Argue at will.
Predicted Division Winners and why:
- NL East: Washington. They were better than their final record in 2015 … they’re no longer the favorites so the pressure is off, and they have a manager who knows how to handle a veteran team. I sense a rebound. I also think the Mets will struggle with rotation injuries after driving their young arms way too hard last year. Washington’s offense, defense and intangibles are all improved and their rotation will be better than people give it credit for. Both teams win 90+ games thanks to their division but Washington nicks them at the end.
- NL Central: Chicago Cubs: who would pick against them after they won 98 games AND had the best off-season of any team? What a juggernaut.
- NL West: San Francisco Giants: somehow the Dodgers continue to have the biggest payroll out there yet can’t find enough healthy starters to fill a rotation. Arizona improved, but not enough.
- AL East: Toronto: still the best offense in the land; Tampa and Boston may be frisky.
- AL Central: Kansas City, though it could be close with Cleveland if KC’s bullpen doesn’t perform like they did last year. Concerned about the back end of KC’s rotation but they could always make another mid-season move if things get too bad.
- AL West: Houston again, with Texas nipping on their heels once they get Yu Darvish back.
Wild Cards
- NL: NY Mets and St. Louis Cardinals: the Mets will beat up on the rest of the weak NL East and get enough wins thanks to unbalanced schedules. St. Louis goes neck and neck with Chicago all year and settles for the WC. This leaves Pittsburgh, LA and Arizona out in the cold. Mentioning literally any other NL team in 2016 as a playoff contender would be shocking thanks to the wide-spread tanking going on in the league.
- AL: Boston and Texas; not as much tanking in the AL but there are a couple of weak teams in the AL West that help Texas. Boston is improved. The AL Central is too good to produce a 2nd team; they’ll beat up on each other all year.
Playoff Results.
- Mets take the Cardinals in one WC
- Texas beats Boston in the other WC
In the divisional series:
- Chicago and New York get a re-match of last year’s NLDS and…. the Mets prevail again in a shocker, defeating the 105-game winning Cubs with ease thanks to the Cubs 15 strike-outs per game against the Mets’ hurlers. The curse continues.
- Washington gets revenge on San Francisco, winning games by not taking out starters in the 9th needlessly and handling SF’s all-around solid team.
- Houston (with the best record in the game) has to face hated rival Texas but wins an intra-state showdown.
- Kansas City outlasts Toronto but not before Jose Bautista causes another Goose Gossage meltdown with his bat flipping antics.
In the LCS
- Washington and New York go 7 … having played to a 10-9 seasonal split. Washington’s arms are healthier in the end and they prevail at home in game 7.
- Houston ends KC’s AL dominance with a hard fought 6 games series.
In the World Series….
- Two teams who have never won a WS game go at it. Washington’s aces shut down Houston’s offense and Washington’s veteran hitters squeak out the hits they need and NL Manager of the Year Dusty Baker leads the team to a WS title in his first season.
What, it could happen couldn’t it??
OK, I’ll play, at least for the regular season. I don’t want to jinx us in the playoffs! I’m still not sure our bullpen is strong enough to take us all the way . . .
NL: DC and the Cubbies seem logical division champs. I’ve already mentioned that I think the Nats will outdistance the Mets by at least five games. The Marlins are one of those teams that can make some noise if everything goes perfectly for them, but likely it won’t.
In the Central, the Pirates have regressed a little, particularly in power, and the Cards perhaps more than a little. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cards miss the playoffs a year after winning 100.
In the West, who knows? AZ was one of those teams that could get in it if everything went perfectly, but with Pollack gone, they don’t have much margin for error left. The Dodgers have a lot of rotation issues and Either starting the season injured, plus a rookie manager who may get overwhelmed if things get rocky (see “Williams, Matt”). SF has an improved rotation, but perhaps not a great one. We’ll see. In a close call, I’ll give the Giants the divisional nod.
NL Wildcards: Pirates and Dodgers. Sorry Mets and Cards. OK, I’m not sorry. Not at all!
AL: Toronto, KC, and Houston as division winners, with Texas and the Angels as wildcards. That’s a lot to expect out of the West, but the Angels missed out on the WC by one game last year. I don’t think Cleveland has quite enough offense to get there, particularly with Brantley so uncertain if and when. I don’t think the Bosox have done enough to get 10+ games better. The Yanks may be closer to the WC than the Sox.
KW
4 Apr 16 at 12:34 pm
NL East – Nats> MIA> NYM> PHI> ATL
NL Central – Cubs
NL West – SFG
WCs – LAD, NYM
AL East – TAM
AL Central – CLE
AL West – TEX
WCs – HOU, NYY
For Nats, I’d say:
HRs – Harper (38), Zim (35)
RBIs – Zim (125)
Wins – Stras (22)
WAR – Harper (8)
Stras (6)
Saves – Pap (45)
Turner gets only 125 PAs, Giolito 10 starts
Wally
4 Apr 16 at 1:18 pm
Wally, how do you get the Mets into the WC if you have the Fish finishing ahead of them?
I think Zim’s 35 HR days are passed, but the 125 RBIs aren’t outside the realm of possibility *if he stays healthy.* He’s going to have guys on base ahead of him nearly every time up. Well, every time that Harper hasn’t homered. On that number, I could be convinced to go big. If Zim stays a healthy and credible threat behind Harper, I could see Bryce making a run at 50 dingers.
Hope springs eternal on Opening Day!
KW
4 Apr 16 at 1:28 pm
Its easy if your brain doesn’t function!
Let’s go with PIT as the 2d WC.
I think Zim still has it in him if he can play 140 games. That may be the bigger question
Wally
4 Apr 16 at 1:38 pm
Wally; if Zimmerman hits 35 homers I’ll be shocked. I mean, his 30/100 season was his peak performance year and I’d be shocked if he gets close to it again.
Todd Boss
4 Apr 16 at 3:05 pm
Funny, but I feel better about that one than most of the others. Like I said to KW, I am totally betting on health – call it 140 games.
ok, then that’s my stupid, wild eyed guess. Every season needs one. What’s your bold prediction?
Wally
4 Apr 16 at 3:22 pm
One At bat, one homer for 2016 MVP Bryce Harper!
Todd Boss
4 Apr 16 at 5:03 pm
Has anybody seen the Nats early schedule?
Their first 22 games are all against creampuffs.
You have to think that any less than 16-6 would be a bad omen.
Mark L
4 Apr 16 at 7:22 pm
Yeah I mentioned it before. If they want to get to 90+ wins, they need to dominate Atlanta and Philly for sure. Because you know the Mets are going to.
Todd Boss
4 Apr 16 at 7:50 pm
Yeah, but beating the Braves *shouldn’t* be as hard as we just made it look! Goodness. Our big free agent sure looks like a good fit, though. Our revamped bullpen, not so much. Plus the Nats as a team struck out 11 friggin’ times. What happened to the new emphasis on contact?!
Oh well, one down, 161 more to go! And we’re already all alone in first place.
KW
4 Apr 16 at 9:19 pm