Giolito’s latest start does not inspire confidence. (Photo by John McDonnell / The Washington Post)
(note; i’m at the beach this week … so i’m putting this in as a placeholder for arguing, er I mean discussing).
From the comments section on last week’s post, clearly we’re not happy with the bullpen. And neither is Mike Rizzo, who caused an uproar amongst the 25 or so people on the planet who knew who Max Schrock was by flipping him for a guy whose name I won’t even try to spell. Our long man blew a comeback effort last weekend that i’m sure was not well appreciated amongst the vets on the team.
But this post is about the rotation. Are you worried yet? Scherzer and Roark might have hiccups here and there but they’ll be solid for the playoffs (and yes, at this point i’m assuming we’re in the playoffs). But is Strasburg going to make it back? Is Ross? Do we trust Gonzalez in a post-season rotation? Is the performance thus far of Giolito and Lopez just more cause for concern?
But hey, Mat Latos is on the way, so no worries!
Obviously Stras has to come back in full form for the Nats to go very far in the playoffs. Right now, I’m fine with him resting. Ross had a rehab start yesterday, so he’s on his way.
It’s going to be an interesting battle for the postseason roster. Perez and Petit would seem to be on the bubble. Do the Nats even need to keep a “long man” at all if the full regular five starters are available, leaving Ross or Gio for the ‘pen? Does Latos do enough to get into consideration? Right now, I’m not trusting Giolito or Lopez in the postseason. Glover, yes; those kids, no. I’m also eager to see what Gott looks like in Sept. He’s been very good in recent weeks since coming off the DL.
KW
29 Aug 16 at 6:04 pm
I’m not worried about the rotation. Stras seems like he’ll be back. If he isn’t, that’s a big problem but I won’t worry about that unless it happens. Gio is the 4th starter, just no way around that. But I don’t see it as a problem because he won’t get many starts, even if they go deep. And they could probably use him in the pen against LAD in the first round.
I’ve said this before, but I’d like to see them call up 5 or 6 pitchers – Giolito, Lopez, Glover, Latos, Gott and maybe Martin – give the starters plenty of rest (say, no more than 6 IPs or 95 pitches), and have an open audition during the month of Sep for spots in the post season pen after MM, Kelley, Treinen and Ross. I really would take whomever thrives.
Wally
29 Aug 16 at 7:59 pm
Todd, are you sure you want to stand by your statement that only 20-25 people read Luke’s site?
If so, shame!
Mark L
29 Aug 16 at 9:20 pm
Martin got bombed on Monday night (five runs in one-third of an inning), AWFUL timing with at least one DFA looming for Latos, possibly two to bring up Burnett.
Wally, I’d add Belisle to the “sure thing” list for the ‘pen, and Solis if he’s healthy. I would think that they want to take at least two lefties from among Solis, Scrabble, Perez, Grace (good outing last night), and maybe Burnett, if he does well enough for them to DFA someone to get him a spot. Right now, I wouldn’t trust Perez in the playoffs even with a 10-run lead! But they don’t HAVE to take a second loogy, particularly if they look at Belisle’s splits vs. LHB.
Glover would seem to be close to securing a postseason spot among the righties. Gott will get a look as well, and Martin if he isn’t DFA’d. Lopez, Giolito, Cole, and Latos will get innings in Sept. Whether any of them shine enough to get into playoff consideration will remain to be seen. I certainly could see Petit supplanted as the long man (despite what he did to us in ’14), but it might just be by Ross.
Interesting in the Post report yesterday about Latos: he apparently wasn’t injured during the month that they didn’t have him pitching; they just made him get in shape!
KW
30 Aug 16 at 7:07 am
KW, are you saying fat & sloppy was not good enough?
Mark L
30 Aug 16 at 8:38 am
Are we worried about the bullpen? Yes
Are we worried about the rotation? Yes
Are we worried about the bats? Yes
Are we worried about intangibles? Yes
We’re baseball fans. We worry between bouts of fretting (with an occasional flash of hubris that quickly passes). The problem for the community is that the Nationals are pretty much on cruise control for the playoffs, and once in the playoffs short series randomness takes over. Even the run up to the playoffs doesn’t tell us much, as “hot” or “cold” finishes haven’t really correlated to playoff success or failure. So we worry.
But believe me, worrying about baseball sure beats worrying about the other stuff going on in the world. Cut Perez, bring back Burnett!
John C.
30 Aug 16 at 10:01 am
Apparently it wasn’t good enough for the the Chisox! The good news is that they’re still paying him . . .
KW
30 Aug 16 at 10:02 am
John, if Perez wasn’t still owed $4M for next year, I think he’d be very close to kicked to the curb. It’s hard for anyone to admit a $7M mistake, though, even in baseball. I would guess that Pap was still owed $3-4M when he was showed the door, though.
(Chisox “only” ate the rest of $3M on Latos.)
KW
30 Aug 16 at 10:06 am
Following up on something Todd highlighted in the last post, Belisle is now .138/.188/.246 vs. LHB. However, he’s a frightening .341/.360/.424 vs. RHB, albeit with only one HR allowed. He sure looks like a guy who should be used as a loogy, if someone is enlightened enough to look at the splits. His career splits are almost even, though, and he was worse against LHB than RHB last season, so this year seems like somewhat of an anomaly. I’m not going to lobby as hard for him for the postseason roster, although he’s one of Dusty’s Cincy boys, so he’s probably got an inside track.
For folks who are lobbying for Burnett, I’ll just remind everyone that he’s only thrown 10.1 innings in the majors since we last saw him in a Nats uniform in 2012, 9.2 of those in 2013 before he got hurt. It would be a great story, but it’s hard to bank on someone who hasn’t really been a big-leaguer for four years.
KW
30 Aug 16 at 3:59 pm
Over his career Belisle doesn’t really have significant platoon splits, although LH batters (.768 OPS) have hit him slightly better than RH batters (.745 OPS). Although he is much better against LH batters in 2016, in 2015 he was much better against RH batters (.639 OPS) than LH batters (.784 OPS). Given that he’s only thrown 39.1 innings in 2016, I don’t think you can conclude that he’s gone from being neutral to a reverse-split “LOOGY.”
John C.
30 Aug 16 at 4:42 pm
MarkL: my sarcastic comment on the Schrock arguments going on was definitely not an indictment of NationalsProspect readership 🙂
I guess what I meant was … along the larger lines of knwoledgeable fans always over-emphasizing the greatness of their own prospects, the Schrock indignation seemed to me to be over the top. We didn’t trade a “top” prospect, nor one who projects to rise much further than “scrappy utility guy” on the edges of a 25-man roster. We moved him for a relatively ineffective Loogy whose lefty splits aren’t even that great; so perhaps in terms of total value to a major league team it’ll be a wash. We moved the low likelihood of future edge case for the current need of an edge case.
Todd Boss
30 Aug 16 at 5:27 pm
I never read anywhere about Latos being out of shape; if that’s the case then bravo. Still no explanation for why his production fell off a frigging cliff. Was it all bout his knee injury? Even the out of shapeness?
Todd Boss
30 Aug 16 at 5:28 pm
Here’s the article that mentioned how the Nats had Latos “improve his fitness and build stamina” before letting him pitch:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2016/08/29/nationals-plan-to-add-mat-latos-in-september/
And hey, I hear Tebow’s available, although he apparently wants to play OF . . . but 27 teams came out to scout a 29-year-old who hasn’t played baseball since he was 17 . . .
KW
30 Aug 16 at 5:46 pm
Todd .. we all have different “top” prospects. For a team lacking consistent bats, I didn’t like trading away the most consistent hitter in our whole organization for basically nothing.
You we’re absolutely aghast that I questioned the opinion of every scout in baseball for ranking Giolito the #1 prospect.
If Schrock hits .300 in AA, he is going to get a legitimate shot in the majors, and not as a utility guy. Everyone who hits .300 in today’s modern pitching environment is a major leaguer these days. All Schrock has to do is keep doing it one or two more levels, and he’ll pass by all those immensely athletic guys who can’t hit that you and the scouts love so much. I’ll ask you again, who is a better pure hitter than Schrock in our organization right now? Maybe Robles?
Do we have any real hitters, even slap hitters in our system right now?
He should have been traded in a bigger package for a star player. I guess Rizzo figures he’s covered if they are planning Turner long term at 2b, or the gaggle of just signed kids from the DR .
Marty C
30 Aug 16 at 6:47 pm
Giolito was rated #1 based on his velocity and his curve; we havn’t seen the velocity at the MLB level and that’s a good question. The system has been a “big 4” then a gap for basically two years now; Giolito, Turner, Lopez, Robles then a gap, then Fedde and the rest. Its splitting hairs saying that Giolito is #1, Turner is #7; most of the guys on a top 100 list at any given period are going to make the majors. Most of the guys who play in the futures game make the majors (i think its like 60%). But yes, i’m completely shocked at what Turner has done and i’m rather surprised that Giolito hasn’t exploded onto the scene.
Robles is a better all around hitter, absolutely. He’s 19 this year and earned a promotion out of low-A. At 19 most guys are still playing XST until they try to mkae a short-A team; he’s already advanced out of a full season team. Schrock came from a SEC team and in his second pro season is in high-A; that’s about “right” in terms of progression.
It comes down to this: team team has a need and cashed in a prospect for that need. Would we rather have not had to make that trade? yeah. But as has been well documented Rizzo has had a weakness for identifying lefty relievers and has made some mistakes in the past. But he’s also had some bad luck; if Solis wasn’t hurt we make no trade. Can’t help that.
Todd Boss
30 Aug 16 at 8:30 pm
I am still confident in Lopez but it sure does look like Latos is going to get a start. Perhaps the team is also managing arms to have a fresh Strasburg and Ross for October. So our discussion may be illusory; the issue may prove to be a lack of starters who grab a spot behind the core 5, even as three (Giolito, Cole, Lopez) have had a chance to do so.
As for Schrock, Marty C has articulated my sentiments and concerns accurately.
As for the system, the team is not utterly devoid of hitting prospects, but lacking them at higher levels of development (can seemingly help in 2017). The watch is on for Marmelos to blossom into a power hitter and for Ward to master AA and for Difo to return to a dominant bat with more punch.
Schrock’s bat inspired confidence and his glove was better than advertised and he should have been used to draw back more in return, even if he were part of a package. Marty and I were not shocked by Turner’s ascent and were similarly told we were overvaluing him and ignoring the pundit class as we debated it here quite some time ago.
My own top 20 now, adjusted for the graduates and based on performance rather than hype and bonus –
Rey Lopez AAA
Victor Robles A+
Luke Giolito M
Koda Glover M
Juan Soto R
Pedro Severino AAA
Erick Fedde AA
Wilmer Difo AA
Drew Ward AA
Pedro Avila A-
Austin Voth AAA
Tyler Mapes AA
Tyler Watson A-
Rafael Bautista AA
Andrew Stevenson AA
Jose Marmelos AA
Brian Goodwin AAA
Telmito Agustin A-
Yonathan Ramirez SS
Weston Davis SS
The Schrock trade does reflect Rizzo going for it. I’ve been extremely appreciative of him in the past and defended him and the Lerners before. And if he is going for it here, fine. But I cannot escape the nagging idea that Schrock’s inclusion in a package could have yielded a better and longer term lefty relief option in return, if that is what was needed. If we did not have what the Yankees wanted for Miller, fine. But there were other players to be had. And that is from a perspective that highly values the Melancon trade Rizzo made.
forensicane
31 Aug 16 at 8:49 am
“Shrock’s inclusion in a package could have yielded a better and longer term lefty relief option in return”
This assumes a couple of things: (1) that the professionals running the other 29 MLB teams value Shrock as much as we do; and (2) that a better lefty reliever was actually available. Scrabble cleared waivers and thus the A’s were able to trade him despite the fact that the trade deadline had passed. Think about the top notch LHRP that you truly wanted to get for Shrock. Now try to figure out a way to get that LHRP through waivers when so many potential playoff teams are looking for relief help.
John C.
31 Aug 16 at 11:15 am
Following on John’s point, as best as I can recall, the only loogy besides Marc R. to change hands in August has been Hunter Cervenka, who may have more vowels than Scrabble but much less game, as he’s been lit up with the Fish (not a bad thing from our point of view). But the quality lefties who could get through waivers with half the AL still in contention just weren’t there.
I’ll add another point that I’ve made before: the Nats got not just Scrabble, but cash to cover his contract, from the most skin-flint franchise in sports. That cash cost extra, as in extra value of a prospect.
It is what it is, a rental loogy for a miniature A-ball INF. Odds are that we’ll have a hard time remembering either of them in three years.
If you want to talk about something important, let’s talk about Stras having a good bullpen on Tuesday and on pace to be ready to come back soon, or Glover appearing to the be the 8th inning option if needed on Tuesday, a real show of confidence in the kid.
KW
31 Aug 16 at 12:25 pm
How many here have been Nats fans long enough to remember the outrage when Rizzo traded Manno and Rinehart for Jonny Gomes? That was in 2011. There was much wailing and gnashing of teeth over that one (Manno had a particularly active fan group that called themselves “Manno’s Minions”). Trading Billy Burns was also decried, especially after he finished #5 in RoY voting last year. He’s cratered so badly this season (.230/.265/.297/.562) that Billy Beane was happy to unload him for another terrible player (but who had a higher draft pedigree).
John C.
31 Aug 16 at 1:47 pm
John C, I’m with fore on this.
The Nats are swimming in pitching prospects and are very thin on consistent hitters.
There are at least 20 teams that probably look at all our pitching depth and drool.
And we get a below average loogy.
Mark L
31 Aug 16 at 6:23 pm
I’m not referencing only the waiver deadline. I’m referencing the trading deadline in which the Nats pursued and acquired Melancon and fell short on Miller.
This is the same GM who pulled a three way with Oakland once before. A three way could have sent Schrock to Oakland if ” no one else” valued him. The lefty problem did not develop post trading deadline. It is why the Nats continued to inquire on Miller even
after getting Melancon.
As for the prospect followers here, no one seems to have regretted trading Hearn and Rivero for Melancon. That is precisely the point. Most folks approved of the Burns deal. I did not. And Burns has more value than DenDek.
forensicane
31 Aug 16 at 6:30 pm
If the objective is to trade quality to get quality, as Rizzo asserts, then indeed the Nats are trading quality, not bums with fanatic followings. We were a different team in 2011 with no championship aspirations. If you cannot trade for a difference maker, the only reason to make a deal is to dump.
Melancon= difference maker
Gio Gonzalez = 2012 difference maker
Turner = difference maker
Storen = dump
Karns = dump
Now, the argument FOR the trade that I would expect is that the Nats scouted Scrabble well, Dusty knows him and how to use him, and see him fitting in well as a Kefty option, a loft, or depth that the team needs if late injuries happen. Performance will bear that out.
forensicane
31 Aug 16 at 6:39 pm
Interesting discussions. I think I said at the time of both the Scrabble and Melancon trades was that it was a hefty cost both times, but this is a go for it year, so if the acquired players perform, I think the cost will be worth it. If they don’t perform, we’ll regret it because I believe Rivero will have value in the pen over the remaining years of control, (although I do not see him becoming elite), and I think one of the two prospects will see the majors and contribute to some degree. These guys aren’t nothing, is what I’m saying. I only vaguely remember the Manno trade, but I wasn’t outraged personally because I dont remember thinking all that highly of them.
the Burns trade, meh, not really concerned about it either. He had a good year last year but put up a 50 wRC+ In 300 PAs this year. For an above average runner and defender to actually have negative WAR means he has been really bad at the plate. I don’t see him as more than a 4th OF guy.
But if Scrabble and Melancon perform well down the stretch and playoffs and increase our odds of winning it all a bit, the cost will be worth it.
Wally
31 Aug 16 at 7:46 pm
One last thing on Schrock… KW and others keep referring to him as an A ball player, as if he’s stuck in time. it’s a path, not a point in time. In my mind he’s already a AA player as you don’t expect him to repeat A ball after he just hit .345 there do we? Would you have labeled Turner just a AA player last year if we had traded him? that’s where he played most of his games.
The thing I look for in these hitting prospects is consistency and avoidance of long slumps. Turner was always like that so he was easy for me to project. You can see even in the majors Turner has probably 25 % to 30% of our teams hits!
So compared to someone like Ward, who has ups and downs, pronounced hot streaks and cold streaks – Schrock just kept piling up the hits day after day, week after week, even after jumping a level etc…
Soto is looking similar. Robles before getting hit by pitch 50 times was looking like that. Marmalajos not quite as dynamic as those two, but quite consistent.
I just love these tough out guys. Love having them on our team (Murphy). Hate playing against them.
btw… Murphy looks very very tired. Hope he gets a couple days off to freshen up.
Marty C
31 Aug 16 at 10:06 pm
JohnC: can’t agree more with your excellent reference to Manno. The Schrock fanboy-ism reminds me of that time period.
Todd Boss
31 Aug 16 at 10:20 pm
Returning to the, um, major-league squad . . . this has been a nice little rebalancing spurt in Philly, and well timed to essentially eliminate the Marlins, with the help of the Mets. The Mets have been on a bit of a run, so the Nats need to take at least one or two over the weekend to keep them at arm’s length.
More importantly, the Nats survived perhaps the most brutal stretch of the season. Now they have a day off and should have a good influx of AAA arms and fielders to help ease them through Sept. Stras, Ross, and Solis have been able to rest their shoulders and elbows without the lead in the standings withering. Stras came back from his R&R last season nearly untouchable. Let’s hope a similar resurgence is in the cards.
Scrabble has looked good thus far. Werth seems to be coming around with some legit contact after his somewhat hollow on-base streak. Really, Zim is the only deep concern among the hitters, particularly if we don’t count his swinging-bunt “single” as a legit hit. I know there calls to bench him in favor of CRob, or at least platoon them. But as long as the lead in the standings stays healthy, it seems more logical to me to let Zim try to play through it.
I DON’T agree with letting Taylor try to play through it at the MLB level, though, and thought it was ridiculous to hang his usual 0-fer doughnut in the leadoff spot.
KW
1 Sep 16 at 7:33 am
Just saw that Neil Walker is having season-ending surgery. I feel bad for the player, but not for the Mets! If not for the sticky Zim situation, it might be an interesting thought for the Nats to pursue Walker as a now-discounted FA, put Murph at 1B, and keep Trea at 2B; or trade Danny and put Trea as SS. Trea’s range on the last out on Wed. night was amazing.
KW
1 Sep 16 at 8:39 am
KW… how could Trea have amazing range on that play and a couple others in the infield this year? He is supposed to be a candy armed lousy fielder compared to the irreplaceable Espinosa. Shudder the thought of him playing shortstop all year.
Todd.. my fanboy-ism of Schrock is pretty much equivalent to your rabid defense of Giolito as the #1 prospect in baseball back a few months ago when I noted he was not dominating the minors.
Will be interesting how these stories play out. Will Nat’s let perhaps their best player settle in to play his position next year? Or will they turn this star into a utility player and burn his base stealing legs out in the center field? Will Schrock crush AA for Oak next year and get called up?
Giolito…. one reason I was hoping he was a true fireballer is that you can learn the nuances of pitching in the majors on the fly as you can get away with a lot of mistakes and keep hitters on the defensive throwing 98. Which is why most are more excited about Lopez now. He can pop a 10 K game on pure stuff while learning how to pitch. But if Lucas is really going to sit at 93, he’s going to have to be fully developed with secondary pitches, pinpoint location, deception etc… in the minors before he could be effective at all in MLB. KInd of like the path Voth is apparently on. Do you guys think it’s arm fatigue, or mechanical on Lucas… or is this really all the velo he’s got? The more I think about Giolito, I think he’s going to have to change his full windup delivery pretty radically for added deception. His first move in the wind up is kind of setting into a 3/4 body position facing the batter for a very long beat, and it’s giving the hitter a great unobstructed view of that arm side. Giving them great opportunity to see and time that long delivery lever of his.
Marty C
1 Sep 16 at 9:56 am
Marty, are you asserting that playing CF is somehow more draining on speed/legs than playing middle infield? That’s … interesting. It doesn’t seem to have slowed Hamilton down. And it’s not like there aren’t a pile of centerfielders who have been speed demons on the basepaths. Why do you assert that playing CF would “burn his base stealing legs out?”
I don’t think that it’s at all likely that Turner sustains this level (any more than Michael Conforto sustained his production from 2015). He’s got a very high floor, don’t get me wrong, but it’s not only his BABIP that raises some warning flags. Beyond the Box Score did an interesting writeup of his strengths and potential weaknesses: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/8/31/12650556/trea-turner-nationals-hit-streak-hard-contact-ground-balls-plate-discipline
John C.
1 Sep 16 at 10:11 am
Don’t get me wrong, I love having Turner on the team. I just think that long term he’s going to be behind Harper and Rendon in terms of overall production. Having three of your eight position players be Harper, Rendon and Turner? That’s pretty awesome, actually.
John C.
1 Sep 16 at 10:13 am
Keith Law was out front early with the claim that Turner would be a better shortstop than Espinosa. I was among those who were skeptical, not because I doubted that Trea could play SS, but from the belief that Danny would be above-average defensively. He hasn’t been, though; the advanced stats show him as very average, pretty similar to Desmond. He’s improved a little at the plate, in power if not in contact, making him, well, pretty similar to what Desmond was for the Nats in recent years.
For the near-offseason future, I think the question for the Nats will be whether they think they can come up with a starting OF who would produce more than Danny would. They can either keep Trea in CF as that OF, or trade Danny and put Trea at SS if they can find that OF upgrade. (It ain’t Michael Taylor.)
As for what to expect longer term for Trea, I tried to guesstimate that in a post here when his call-up was being debated. While indicating the his ceiling didn’t seem to be knowable yet since he was showing enough power to potentially get to the 20 HR level (and still is), I pegged him as potentially league-average for a SS, around 3-4 WAR as a reasonable hope. Well, if you project his current WAR for the full season, you’d get around 8-9. I agree with John that such a level isn’t sustainable, but if he becomes more like a 5-6 WAR averaging guy, that’s a heck of a ballplayer. That’s Jimmy Rollins in his prime. Is that too much to ask of Trea? The good news is that we’ve got a lot of years ahead to find out.
KW
1 Sep 16 at 12:33 pm
I’m very glad to see Rendon becoming Rendon again.
On Turner, yeah I think CF is pretty draining compared to corner outfield spots and IF. Because he has to constantly run 60 or more yards to backup the corner guys, and basically go for every ball that is not dead pulled. that plus all his time on the base paths and diving back on pickoffs can wear him out. I want to coddle this guy and preserve his legs. Middle infielders are active, but they are not full out running a dozen times or more a game like CF’s.
He’s looked tired this week on the bases. Not getting as good of jumps etc… Lotta games in a row but still…
I would let Turner settle in at SS or 2b next year and let him stay there. Much like they did with Rendon this year. I do think Turner’s overall production will be above that of Rendon long term, and with more HR power. Just needs to fine tune that strike zone a bit to get more walks. He’s not walking at all. But he does seem to be taking more pitches early in the count this past few games, so looks like he’s working on it.
Marty C
1 Sep 16 at 12:44 pm
I feel like this will only embolden Marty more, but Schrock debuted at AA last night and went 2 for 3
Wally
1 Sep 16 at 2:03 pm
Re Turner, of course he can’t sustain the Babip but one area that isn’t reflected in his stats is that he seems to have had a lot of errors on his batted balls, relatively speaking. I could see the arguments that is a repeatable skill for high speed guys, and so maybe his stats are understated in that way.
Turner does need to improve his plate discipline but luckily he has a minor league track record of less Ks and more walks, so we only have to wish for him to rediscover a skill he has already demonstrated, not develop an entirely new one (like is the case with MAT)
Wally
1 Sep 16 at 2:08 pm
Continuing our chronicle of self-induced Karma Met pitching woes, Matz was supposed to come off the DL and start last night (Thurs.) but was unable to do so. In his place, deGrom, who was supposed to start tonight (Fri.) against the Nats, was ineffective for his third straight start, laboring through 102 pitches in only five innings and losing to the Fish. Thor (starting Fri. vs. Cole) has been much better in his last two starts after being shaky for a couple of months. And of course Harvey fell off the side of the earth.
Met probables on Sat. and Sun. are Gsellman (vs. Roark) and Lugo (vs. Max). I like our chances of extending the lead.
KW
2 Sep 16 at 9:41 am
Those last two guys have pitched well so far and the Nats don’t do well against pitchers they haven’t seen.
I’m going to go with 1 out of 3
Wally
2 Sep 16 at 10:29 am