Is Burnett coming back to Washington? Photo: masnsports.com
September 1st; Roster expansion day. I’ll get this post in before the inevitable call-ups occur so we can argue for a bit. Not all 9/1 callups happen on 9/1; we do have to finish out AAA season so some guys will hang out there through the weekend before getting called up.
Here’s the canonical list of 40-man players currently in the minors on optional assignment:
- SP: Lopez, Giolito
- RP: Martin, Gott, Grace*
- C: Severino, Kieboom
- INF: Difo, Bostick
- OF: Goodwin, den Dekker
We also know that Mat Latos is going to be added, and will come at the expense of someone. And we’re assuming that Sean Burnett is going to come on board as well. So it sounds like we’ll either be shifting someone to the 60-day D/L or DFAing some guys to make room.
So, predictions on what you think will happen, and what you would like to see happen?
My predictions, by position:
- SP: Lopez, Giolito come back up to do small stints as needed, and Latos gets a look as the 5th starter until Strasburg comes back.
- RP: Martin gets DFA’d to make room for Burnett, who along with Grace comes up for a month-long post-season audition. Gott has given little reason to think he’s merited a call-up and may be done for the season.
- C: Severino comes up to provide some relief; Kieboom calls it a season.
- INF: Difo back up, Bostick done.
- OF: den Dekker DFA’d to make way for Latos addition to 40-man and Goodwin comes back up to provide some OF cover.
Bryan Harper may have merited a look but he’s still on the D/L. Both Espino and Voth had solid AAA seasons starting but there’s little reason to add them with the surplus of starters we already have. Some have mentioned Matt Skole or maybe even a return for Steve Lombardozzi but neither guy really excelled in AAA this year. Skole has 24 homers …but a sub .800 OPS even given all that power.
Anyone else you want to see head to Washington? How about Max Schrock? (oh, sorry, too soon?)
ps: someone in the Nats blogosphere asked Keith Law in his chat yesterday about Giolito’s “80 fastball” and he had an interesting response. I feel like he’s hedging a little bit; if Giolito had a 100mph fastball that by definition is a 80 fastball. He was at 98 in High School, which is a heck of a number and merits at least a 70 or 75 grade … at age 18. But he also notes what we’ve noted; he’s showed significantly less velocity in pro ball and is sitting 93.4 (average 4-seam velocity) with a max of “just” 95.8. Where is 98? And more importantly … where’s the command of said 4-seamer?
Post-publishing update: Mr. Law himself DM’d me on twitter about the above paragraph and wrote the following: “I don’t think you misrepresented [what I said in the chat], but I did want to correct something. A guy who hits 100 once, pitching on a week of rest, wouldn’t automatically get an 80 fastball grade (or 75, a grade I’ve never used or heard a real scout use). So I wasn’t hedging, but would make a clear distinction between a Riley Pint, who hits 100 regularly as a starter, and a Giolito, who was 94-98 in HS and happened to hit 100 that one time. That’s all.”
There had been some talk that Stephen Drew might be moved to the 60-day DL to clear a 40-man spot, but he started a rehab assignment at Potomac last night and had two hits.
Martin had a solid save last night, while Gott struggled on Wed. They’re not going to DFA Gott, though. It seems like a choice between Martin and Burnett, if they want to add Burnett to the 40-man. I agree that den Dekker will probably get the DFA in favor of Latos. As bad as he’s been, he may go unclaimed.
I do think Lopez and Giolito will come back up. It will be interesting to see if they get more starts or are used out of the bullpen. Scherzer and Roark have been ridden pretty hard this season, and it would be good to see them either skip a start or two or get a couple of extra days of rest between starts.
I guess Kieboom and Bostick are the only ones on the list without MLB experience. It wouldn’t hurt to give both a look, although Kieboom hasn’t been great at AA. Bostick was strong at AA but struggled after promotion to Syracuse.
I’m most curious about Latos, Burnett, and maybe Gott. Can any of them show enough to threaten to make the postseason roster? I feel like Perez and Petit have the most insecure postseason spots, but they both also have considerable postseason experience. Glover is very close to locking down a postseason slot. At whose expense that will be, I don’t know. Remember that the 25-man staff currently is missing Stras and Ross, both of whom presumably will be back, as well as Solis.
KW
2 Sep 16 at 11:17 am
Just thinking through this at lunch. For the postseason, the Nats figure to take eight regulars and a five-man bench, which figures to be Robinson, Heisey, Drew (if healthy), Revere, and Lobaton. All of that seems to be set unless there’s an injury. I guess Goodwin or Taylor could challenge Revere with an explosive Sept., but I doubt it. Either would provide more power than Revere, though.
With the pitching, let’s assume that Stras, Ross, and Solis will all be back. With 13 hitters, that leaves 12 pitchers. Five will be the starters, although Ross or Gio will go to the bullpen (probably bumping Petit as the long man). That leaves seven slots. Melancon, Kelley, Treinen, and Solis (if healthy) would seem to be givens, so we’re down to three spots.
They figure to take at least two lefties, although Gio could end up counting as a bullpen lefty. Anyway, for now will figure on two. Solis would be one. Then there’s Scrabble (who would seem to be the current leader in the race), Perez, Burnett (if activated), and Grace. Two of these could make it if Solis isn’t healthy. But right now, we’ll call this the LOOGY 2 slot. Counting the quartet above, that’s five.
For the final two spots . . . you have Glover, Belisle, and Petit on the current roster, and a list after them that includes Cole, Lopez, Giolito, Latos, Gott, and maybe Martin (who I think is a more likely DFA). That’s nine credible guys for two spots. If the season ended today, I’d say they go to Glover and Belisle. I’d eliminate Lopez and Giolito off the top, as they just haven’t looked secure enough in bigger games. Cole has been steadier but still doesn’t leave much big-league experience. Latos has that, while Gott has electric stuff. I’d love to see Gott have a great Sept. and beat out Belisle, but that would be quite a long shot.
Now watch them take Perez and Petit . . .
KW
2 Sep 16 at 1:41 pm
A couple of random points:
It matters less to me who they call up (because they are roughly equal in value right now), but more that Dusty actually uses them properly to give a lot of rest to some of these guys. They’ve been ridden hard and you can’t just give them 3 days off at the end.
Second, when making up the playoff bullpen, i think different styles can be very effective in short series, so that would go into my decision making. Also, I think you can go with less pitchers overall because of all the days off, so I would have a few specialists, like pinch runners, in the mix.
Wally
2 Sep 16 at 2:19 pm
Ross moved to the 60-day DL, although apparently temporarily? (How does that work? Beat writers also trying to figure it out. He was on the 40-man as of Aug. 31 so still eligible for playoff roster. But does that make Burnett or Latos ineligible?)
As suspected, den Dekker DFA’d. Grace, Gott, Martin, Severino, and Goodwin all called up, with Latos and Burnett added to the 40-man. Difo can’t come back up until next week because he was just sent down. Presumably Lopez and Giolito will follow as Syracuse season winds up.
KW
2 Sep 16 at 3:57 pm
Still trying to figure this out. Ross’s last appearance was on July 2, so he’s basically at 60 days now.
Here’s the current active roster:
http://m.nationals.mlb.com/roster/
KW
2 Sep 16 at 4:19 pm
I think he goes on the 60 day retro to Jul 2, which means (I) isn’t on the 40 man now, but (II) can be put back on any time after Sep 2. So they buy time for these guys to audition and when Ross comes back, someone else has to go. And because he was on the 40 man on Sep 1, he is eligible for the playoff roster.
I think
Wally
2 Sep 16 at 4:28 pm
Wally–or it could be a hedge to see whether Ross can actually make it back. With the minor league season ending, Ross will only be able to make one more rehab appearance. After that, it will be bullpen sessions and simulated games until they deem him to be fully ready–if he has no further setbacks.
Incidentally, my bet is that if Ross comes off the DL, Bostick is the one who will be DFA’ed. He really struggled after his promotion to Syracuse, is limited defensively and profiles to be a utility infielder at best. Guys like that are a dime a dozen.
Karl Kolchack
2 Sep 16 at 5:28 pm
On another note, with potentially 13 players being activated within the next week or so, this is by far the most I ever recall them calling up for September. If Solis were also to make it back, they could finish the season with 39 of 40 players active. By comparison, if memory serves last year they activated a total of 7 (Reed Johnson, Difo, Severino, Solis, Grace, Martin & Cole), but did not use Cole down the stretch. That’s going to be one mighty crowded clubhouse. 🙂
It almost seems like once the division is clinched (hopefully with about two weeks to go), it’s going to be like a second spring training, with a whole bunch of guys on the playoff roster “bubble” vying for the “open” lefty bullpen slot (along with Alphabet), two other bullpen slots (after Melancon, Kelley, Treinen, Belisle & Glover), and possibly even one open bench spot.
Karl Kolchack
2 Sep 16 at 5:52 pm
On Giolito: that Keith Law comment hits it out of the park for me. Unlike Lopez, whose 97 MPH average FB speed is the real deal, Giolito is looking more and more like nothing but hype. He could be a decent mid-rotation starter with his current velocity, ASSUMING his command improves, but I’m not seeing the potential “ace” the scouts seem to see. MLB.com’s track record on rating prospects is pretty dismal (for example: Juan Soto is currently ranked only 15th for the Nats–what a joke!), but that’s the list whose prospect ranking gets cited whenever one gets traded.
Here’s a question, IF Giolito ends up merely being a serviceable number 3-4 starter and never makes an All Star team, did the Nats make a mistake by not trading him for Andrew Miller? (To clarify, I believe they should have traded for BOTH Melancon and Miller if they were going to trade away Rivero.) If they were short on starting pitching prospects, I would say, “no,” but if they get bounced early from the playoffs because of a bullpen meltdown despite having FIVE decent starter prospects, I say Rizzo’s got some ‘splaining to do.
Karl Kolchack
2 Sep 16 at 6:16 pm
So, i’m putting in a post-publishing edit on the Giolito comment because Keith Law DM’d me on twitter to clarify something. Here’s his comment:
“I don’t think you misrepresented [what I said in the chat], but I did want to correct something. A guy who hits 100 once, pitching on a week of rest, wouldn’t automatically get an 80 fastball grade (or 75, a grade I’ve never used or heard a real scout use). So I wasn’t hedging, but would make a clear distinction between a Riley Pint, who hits 100 regularly as a starter, and a Giolito, who was 94-98 in HS and happened to hit 100 that one time. That’s all.”
Todd Boss
2 Sep 16 at 6:55 pm
Karl; i’ll go one further on Giolito; if you remember, the Nats basically punted that entire draft so as to over pay him. And we’ve talked in this space about whether or not one player can make a draft a “success.” That being said ….
Law pointed out to me that a) Giolito is a year younger than Turner and b) has more than two entire fewer seasons of experience. And its a good point. Turner was born in 93, played his entire Sr season of HS plus 3 years in the ACC before getting drafted, then zipped through the minors in two seasons. That’s 6 full seasons from age 17 onward. Giolito was born in 94, missed his Sr year of HS and his entire draft year with injury, and then missed nearly all of 2013 (throwing just 36 innings). 2014, 2015 and now 2016 “full seasons” while ramping up in innings … that’s basically three and a quarter seasons since turning 17.
So, maybe we stop judging Giolito on what he is right now (lets remind ourselves; if he had gone to college 2016 would have been his first pro season). He’s 21 and in the majors. In two years time if he’s still showing “just” a 60 fastball and struggling with command, yeah then we’ve got reason to be concerned.
MLB prospect rankings: It seems to me they rank those guys pre season and then don’t really adjust them given what’s happened in-season (with the exception of adding drafted guys). So them having a guy like Juan Soto low is kind of understandable. How do you properly rate a kid who was in the DSL last year?
Todd Boss
2 Sep 16 at 8:53 pm
Hot Take! I just popped over to nationals.com and see that A.J. frigging Cole is matching Noah Snydergaard pitch for pitch and has limited the Mets to 3 hits through 5+ innings, in New York. Bravo. Maybe we’ve underestimated the kid?
Todd Boss
2 Sep 16 at 8:59 pm
OK, Glover’s on my postseason roster. Dude is cold-blooded.
As for Cole, he’s just 24, and was traded twice during his development. He made AAA at 22 and went 7-0 there, perhaps setting the expectations a little high. I won’t say that he made a major-league roster for 2017 tonight, but he raised himself on some radars. I think at worst, he could fill Petit’s role for the Nats, perhaps become the next Stammen. Those seem reasonable expectations. Cole wasn’t more than average at AAA this season, though, so perhaps we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves.
Then there’s Voth, who was better than Cole in nearly every metric this year but can’t even get a look.
KW
2 Sep 16 at 9:39 pm
Just watched the 8th where Glover K’d Cabrera and broke Cespedes’s bat. Is it insane to think that Glover could be the 8th inning guy for the playoffs? He’s got loads more stuff than Kelley. Is it insane to think that the 9th could belong to Glover next year?
KW
2 Sep 16 at 9:53 pm
Glover is potentially proof positive as to why you should be able to “grow” closers and not have to buy them.
Todd Boss
2 Sep 16 at 10:17 pm
It’s over. It may have been over already, but the Mets could have gotten it to -6.5 with a sweep and at least made the Nats uncomfortable. Now the best they can do is -8.5, and that’s only if they beat Roark and Scherzer. They’re currently up +10.5, longest lead of the season.
KW
2 Sep 16 at 10:40 pm
It is indeed over, and Cole beating Syndegaard was merely the exclamation point. If they sweep the Mets, they should consider going to a 6 man rotation for the rest of the year to save Scherzer and Roark’s arms a bit.
As for Glover, how in the heck did he fall all the way to the 8th round when even the Nats were four rounds more enthusiastic about Sandman Jr–currently stuck down at Hagerstown? Glover already looks better than a certain reliever the Nats stupidly blew a Number 10 all around pick on a few years back. What was that guy’s name again?
Karl Kolchack
2 Sep 16 at 11:05 pm
Actually, if you look at what little was known and knowable about Glover, besides what the radar gun said, you’d wonder why he was picked as high as the eighth round and given overslot money. He wasn’t a travel-team all-star. In fact, he played SS in HS. He started pitching in JUCO but blew out his arm almost immediately and had a TJ. His one JUCO year wasn’t good (4.91 ERA/1.48 WHIP). He only had one year at a 4-year school, already at age 22, and he wasn’t the primary closer, with only 5 saves and 23.2 IP. . . . And only a year after being drafted, he’s going to be pitching in the later innings in the MLB playoffs.
It’s got to be great for Glover to get to observe a pro’s pro in Melancon, though, and to be around pitching-obsessed guys like Scherzer and Roark. It’s a clinic every time one of those guys pitches.
KW
3 Sep 16 at 8:13 am
I think it will help Giolito to be around this staff too, and learn how to pitch
Wally
3 Sep 16 at 9:50 am
For whatever it’s worth, Giolito made a statement in his last Syracuse start on Friday night: eight shutout innings, allowing only two hits and one walk. He “only” struck out five, though.
KW
3 Sep 16 at 5:46 pm
Lopez is starting Sunday for the big club, giving Scherzer an extra day of rest. Perhaps a sign of a possible six- or seven-man rotation to rest the big guns? Certainly a sign that the Nats feel the Mets are dead.
KW
3 Sep 16 at 5:49 pm
Agreed, and I really hope they continue to act that way for playing time purposes. I’d like to see the line up core guys play only 2 out of 3 games, for instance
Wally
3 Sep 16 at 6:42 pm
Some here snicker at the enthusiasm for Schrock just as you did for Turner months ago. Look how quickly we have gone from disposing of Glover after his rough outing against the Braves to anointing him. Just as we very quickly rediscovered the AJ Cole some here were ready to slough off not long ago. Yes, it’s Cole getting the starts, not the luminary a though Giolito will rise in time.
The Nats have excellent, excellent minor league pitching depth. These are assets that should not pass their sell by date. Showcasing or giving a chance to shine and grab a spot, just as Roark did, this is a great time of opportunity.
BTW, Rivera has nothing to be ashamed of. He was hurt, struggled around mid year, but otherwise and has since returned to all star form. Glover’s ascent is exceptional relative to all draftees, it does not render Rivera a bust.
Patience separates us from those who have to make these decisions. Even Johansen, whom we all left for dead, is throwing quality innings at Hagerstown.
Forensicane
3 Sep 16 at 7:42 pm
KW, a few more points about Glover. He was regarded by some as the best prospect in Oklahoma. However, Oklahoma is not as well regarded a level of competition. He was an underclassmen and so the Nats had to pay more for him relative to those with no leverage. And you correctly point out the TJ history.
So again it comes down to scouting in person in a way that transcends numbers. Beyond measurables, he has a closer’s temperament and an aggressiveness that translates. They picked him in a draft in which they were stockpiling lefty starters. Fortunately, he has sustained his rise. As you know, Andrew Lee took a detour. And Ryan Brinley, whom we hoped would be the next Cinderella story to rival Mapes, ran into a wall at AA.
forensicane
4 Sep 16 at 2:00 am
Soto was not in the DSL. He started his career at age 17 in a foreign country (GCL) and is hitting third in the Auburn lineup as a 17 year old.
The rankings are hype fueled. Until Soto or any other Latino plays, it’s anyone’s guess. But they would rank a guy like Luzardo even as he had surgery at the time of their rankings and recovery is not ever guaranteed.
forensicane
4 Sep 16 at 2:05 am
I’m not that disappointed that Brinley “hit a wall” at AA. So did Stevenson. The larger point is that they’ve progressed to AA a year after the draft . . . with a classmate already in the majors, probably to stay. The Nats may get more out of the 2015 draft than they did the three previous ones combined.
I haven’t heard anything about Andrew Lee since he went on the DL in early June. Makes me fear bad things. I think he already had a TJ in his past.
KW
4 Sep 16 at 8:17 am
Met fans and Familia acted on Sat. night like they won the pennant. Guess they’re not too good with numbers, particularly the -9.5 one. For the Nats, there were several good performances from a legion of guys from the bullpen, as well as a couple of shaky ones. FWIW, Dusty claims they’re just reinforcements, not guys auditioning.
KW
4 Sep 16 at 8:20 am
Espinosa…. sigh. At least I usually record the games and can fast forward though his at bats. Hope his once every sixteen weeks hot streak comes in the playoffs.
I’m interested to see a couple more starts for AJ Cole. Is this a mirage or did he get something worked out up here? His pitches have a lot more movement than I remember. This could be a very pleasant surprise.
Goodwin I thought looked pretty decent in his call up. Did not look overwhelmed in the field or at bat even though he didn’t produce much in SSS at the plate. Would like to see how he looks with some regular ab’s in garbage time here. Has to be a better prospect than Taylor at this point.
Marty C
4 Sep 16 at 1:23 pm
Marty, well, you did it again, prompting a HR from Danny. Can you please rag on everyone on a more regular basis?
I’m board with trading Espinosa this offseason. It’s his last year before FA, and they’re not going to put a QO on him, so they’ll get nothing for him in the long run without a trade. He’ll also likely be due a considerable arbitration bump based on his HR/RBI lines. It’s those lines that I think would also bring something of value in trade return.
The question is whether the Nats can replace Danny’s production with an OF to replace Turner, who would slide to SS. If it’s Taylor, is there any improvement whatsoever? Taylor’s arc at the plate reminds me painfully of Danny’s. Can Goodwin be a regular CF? His 14 HRs (at Syracuse) might play in CF; they wouldn’t in a corner OF slot. There’s also Revere, who has more of a track record to suggest that he’ll bounce back average-wise. I would say that he might be trade bait as well, but his value is pretty low right now. He’s also an FA after next season.
KW
4 Sep 16 at 9:57 pm
Agree on moving Espinosa this winter: he’ll hit 25 homers and will look great but the team is better served moving Turner back to SS. The FA market for pure CFs looks not so promising though; Ian Desmond, Yoenis Cespedes (who can’t really play CF) and then a bunch of guys who are more burners than sluggers. Maybe you move Bryce to CF and pursue a corner OF; maybe move Werth back to RF and get a slugger for LF? Or go a high-rate/short-term gig for some one like Jose Bautista or Josh Reddick?
Or they could stand pat, keep everyone where they are now and fill around the edges. After all … despite Espinosa’s batting average, his value is positive both offensively and defensively. There’s plenty of examples of teams who sacrificed a high-value defensive short stop in the lineup … and Espoinsa may be hitting .220 but he is blasting them out of the park with decent regularity.
Todd Boss
5 Sep 16 at 1:45 pm
The stand pat scenerio I’d look for a great hitting 1B-OF combo guy and start him regularly over whichever of Zimm- Werth is struggling the most next year.
One of those guys might play well next year but I doubt both will.
I’d rather remove Espi’s bat from the lineup though permanently. A really decent contact hitting CF I think would be more valuable game to game than Danny’s all or nothing HR & K approach.
A much better Clint Robinson in the first scenerio or a much better Revere in the second. Revere puzzles me. Must have been a different player when he hit .300 or the injury really messed up his mechanics. Watch his ab’s and he stumbles toward the 3b dugout after almost every swing. Balance is way off.
Interesting looking lineup this afternoon. Hope the bench guys come through for Max.
Marty C
5 Sep 16 at 4:02 pm
This Turner kid may have future. Still waiting for the alleged drop-off he’s supposed to have.
KW
5 Sep 16 at 5:07 pm
I finally made it out to Potomac today, the last day of the regular season, not to mention dollar Monday. I saw the Next Great Thing in person so thought I would report.
Not sure what I thought Robles would look like in person, but considering all the “five-tool” talk, I think I thought he would be lankier, maybe like Taylor when he was at Potomac. He’s not; he’s more compact but solid, maybe like Rendon. I didn’t have to watch long to see the comp for his game, though: it’s Trea Turner. Yeah, I realize I’m comparing him to Harry Potter, the chosen one, but there’s a lot of similarity. Robles barrels up line drives, intimidates with his speed, and appears very confident in his game, without being overtly cocky. He had two line-drive singles and a bunt single that forced an error. I think his power will be like Turner’s, coming gradually, but there if someone makes a mistake. Right now, he looks nowhere near a 25-30 HR guy, but he’s only 19. So he’s in CF for me.
Robles seems very self-assured, which was somewhat surprising for one of the youngest players in the league who probably still struggles with English. He willingly spent a lot of time along the fence line signing autographs and posing for pix. He looked more self-assured than Taylor does now. Rapid promotion shouldn’t phase this kid.
In short, I’m buying the hype, as long as people are realistic about power. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for him to get a look with the big club in late 2017.
As for the 15 caught-stealings this season, a trip to a minor-league park comes with the reminder that it’s a fellow player in the 1B coach’s box, not Davey Lopes. Give Lopes a spring with this kid and look out.
KW
5 Sep 16 at 8:31 pm
A few other hot takes:
–Stephen Drew got a couple of ABs at Potomac today as the DH and looked fine. He got a single and ran the bases without obvious struggles.
–Abreu and Mejia look smaller than listed and were not particularly impressive. (Schrock is listed four inches shorter than one and five shorter than the other, FWIW.) Abreu made solid contact on a double but butchered a relatively easy grounder at SS. Nothing jumped out about either that made them look like they’re going farther than AA. But I’ve been wrong before.
–On the other hand, Gutierrez, who didn’t play, had the best major-league-looking body in the whole ballpark, for whatever that’s worth.
–I liked something about Austin Davidson, although I think his future may be more at 2B than 3B.
–On the mound, over-aged salvage signee Whit Mayberry (UVa) dominated, allowing one hit over seven while striking out nine, with a good bit of swing-and-miss stuff. He looks worth keeping around.
KW
5 Sep 16 at 8:49 pm
Awesome stuff KW… Thanks for the report!
Marty C
5 Sep 16 at 9:14 pm
Luke has a full Potomac game recap posted on his site. I cross-posted a few comments, much briefer, and no real criticism of Abreu and Mejia. Mejia also had a relatively easy chance turned into an error, his 26th. Abreu’s was his 21st. I just don’t see much in them about which to get excited. Davidson has an .800 OPS at Potomac after .837 at Hagerstown. He is a year older (23), but he’s showing a much better INF bat. Can’t stick at a corner with only 9 HRs, though.
KW
5 Sep 16 at 10:58 pm
Agree KW – I’ve been comping Robles and TT for awhile now – they are going to be really exciting at the top of the lineup together.
Robles is more reckless compared to TT though – TT feels in control, while Robles has the Harper “run through walls” mojo in him. I went to a Keys/PNats game a few weeks ago and Robles was running all around the outfield seemingly try to catch balls all over the field. If conceivable, he’s also more aggressive on the bases than TT. I also agree that Robles doesn’t look like he’ll have more power – maybe even less power than TT has, but he may leg out even more infield grounders bc of his style. For that reason, I think Robles will be the leadoff hitter and TT will move down the lineup (when Robles arrives). Those two guys will really wreak havoc on opposing pitchers.
Andrew R
6 Sep 16 at 1:17 am
Robles is four years younger than Turner, so the controlled game should come with a little more maturity. That’s one thing that really strikes me about Turner on the bases: even when he’s uber aggressive, it still seems calculated. It’s controlled aggression.
As for the field, Mayberry was so dominant yesterday that I only remember Robles making one play, a can-o’-corn fly right to him. But if you run into enough walls, you learn. Bryce was doing the same thing at 19.
KW
6 Sep 16 at 8:21 am
Good point about age, and we’ll see if he tones it down like Bryce did. The game I went to, Robles was catching balls meant for LF, RF and 2B. It was interesting to watch – he was pretty much a “ballhog”!
Andrew R
6 Sep 16 at 12:02 pm
In response to what I posted on Nats Prospects, Luke said that he and some regular Potomac observers are also questioning Robles’ arm strength. We’ll see. Sounds like he could use a good dose of the instructional league.
KW
6 Sep 16 at 5:00 pm
Arm strength is the one skill least on my worry list for an OF like him. It comes into play for an OF about once every 10 games. And even the guys with the cannons only deliver it on line less than half the time.
Even Zimm was okay to hide in LF with that T-Rex arm.
Marty C
7 Sep 16 at 9:50 am
OF lack of arm strength: that’s what left field is for 🙂 But there’s been plenty of examples of speedy center fielder types with weaker arms who over came it with their speed. If that’s what Robles is then so be it; he’s not showing a ton of power in the minors so far (16 homers in 218 games and 816 ABs for one homer every 50 ABs or so). I’d rather “save” left field for a bopper than a speedster/OBP type. Robles is listed as 6′ 185 so that’s definitely a solid guy, not lanky. Maybe the power is coming.
Todd Boss
7 Sep 16 at 10:52 am
Speaking of Rendon as a comparison (he’s listed as 6’1″ 201 so slightly taller and slightly heavier than Robles) … he’s got his stats nearly back to his 2014 season. He’s at 3.9 bWAR for the year right now, his slash line is comparable to 2014. He’s had a very solid quiet season. Good to see him back.
Todd Boss
7 Sep 16 at 10:54 am
Nats OF future: the “problem” with Robles not showing much power yet is that we know Stevenson doesn’t have any. He’s been described as a “Revere type” since he was drafted (since before we had the original). Stevenson and Robles are the most advanced OF prospects the Nats have. In 2017, the CF situation may be unsettled, and the LF will be in the last year of his contract. We need to fill at least one of those spots with a 25 HR type.
It may sound harsh, but I’m done with Taylor after his Espinosa act this year. If they can get anything for him, I would prefer that the Nats trade him and not be tempted by the perpetual “let’s give him one more shot.”
The only hint of OF power on the horizon is Rhett Wiseman, who managed 13 HRs at Hagerstown this year but didn’t do enough to rate promotion to Potomac. Matthew Page, who turns 25 next month, did get promoted but really struggled at Potomac. Todd and I both had hopes that draftee Nick Banks could have pop at least comparable to Wiseman’s, but he didn’t homer in 60 pro games. The Auburn roster was totally devoid of power. Bonus baby Blake Perkins has only homered once in two seasons (short seasons). Could Jose Marmolejos learn to stand in LF? Even he had only 13 HRs but ripped 45 doubles.
KW
7 Sep 16 at 1:07 pm
My more immediate concern is who the #4 starter is for the playoffs. That fella who got hammered by the lowly Barves last night is not high on my list. Fingers crossed that Stras looks revitalized tonight and that Ross will be soon to follow.
KW
7 Sep 16 at 1:11 pm
It seems to me that Rizzo thinks you can always buy hitters. Though it isn’t really evidenced by the roster (home grown/drafted: Harper, Rendon, Zimmerman, Ramos, Espinosa. FA: Werth, Murphy. Acquired: Turner). But year after year, we’re seeing a trend; there’s lots more bats on the FA market than quality starters. This coming winter, the FA starter market is … well its ridiculous. The *best* free agent SP out there this coming off-season is either Jeremy Hellickson, Rich Hill or Ivan Nova.
Meanwhile, there’s plenty of big-time power bats out there. Cespedes, Encarnacion, Bautista, Trumbo, Reddick, Moss, Napoli and even Justin Turner. Practically every one of those names could fit into an OF spot for the Nats in 2017.
4th starter: If Ross is ok, Gio seems like he’s heading to the bench. Perhaps a better question is this: if Ross has a setback, do you stick with Gio or roll the dice with Lopez, Giolito or Cole? Or none of the above and go with Petit?
Todd Boss
7 Sep 16 at 1:41 pm
Gio would have to blow up mightily for it to be anyone else but him if Ross is unable to go. Petit seems to have entered the witness protection program. I’m not even sure he’ll make the postseason roster. I don’t think Lopez or Giolito will, either, although I think everyone wants to see Lopez get at least one late-inning, blow ’em away look in Sept. Cole has done the best of the called-up starters and showed good nerves control in NYC. I would say that he might be able to get in contention for a long-man playoff spot, but that would likely be the duty for the Gio/Ross nonstarter (another reason Petit may be on the bubble). Of course I’ve been completely wrong about these things before . . .
KW
7 Sep 16 at 2:31 pm
Agreed .. no obvious power in the system unless you count Skole. I would not mind seeing him get a shot at the Robinson role next year, as I think he is far more HR threat than Robinson, and can’t be much worse defensively even if he is a butcher.
I’d be perfectly fine with Robles hitting 15 HR but hitting +.300 with lots of doubles and speed forced errors. I find myself saying “we need a hit” more often than “we need a HR” here….
Like Turner’s broken bat 2 RBI blooper last night. You knew he was going to make contact of some sort. Those things happen more often when you strip all the K’s out of your lineup. And maybe even speaks to the extra value of hitting skill as opposed to walking skill. Turner at .362 OBP all hits is more impressive and useful than if it was .362 with a bunch of walks. Of course if he does start adding walks to his game he should be getting that OPB to the elite guys range. Murphy doesn’t walk either but you sure want him up when you need a hit, even before this year’s Harper who has virtually identical OBP.
But I like the idea of that new big bat coming in trade or FA next year.
Marty C
7 Sep 16 at 3:16 pm
A few observations about above:
Robles – He had 13 assists at Hagerstown in only 63 games. 13! If his arm did not yield similar eye-popping results at Potomac, maybe the kid, playing his first full season, is just a little tired. What we do know is that he ended the season on a tear. With Potomac’s playoffs coming, he has his first chance to show that he deserves a promotion to AA to begin next year. There is every reason to fast track him and to prep him over the winter for same. As for his power, 9 home runs at age 19 is a lot more than Turner power – and I think we can agree that Turner’s power is more than advertised.
Espinosa – I’m in the “move him” camp. GMs dig the long ball and he brought that — this year. Turner, in my estimation, is ticketed for SS. So bring on the future. The intangible benefit of Robles is his energy and aggressive bearing, a high character guy as a next face of the Nats who teams well with Turner’s speed and winner ethos.
Ramos – Got to sign him.
Ross – I still feel like he is being brought along until a week or so from now, and that he is better than being presented.
Brinley and Stevenson – I think the comparisons are not correct. Brinley at AA, to use a Luke expression, got lit up like a Kennedy at an open bar. Stevenson started slowly at AA, no big surprise for a 22 year old in his first full year with respectable numbers and deserves credit for a hike in his batting average of over 70 points. If he steals a lot of bases, blankets CF and hits .340, he may conjure Ben Revere, but he will be taken seriously. Players that aggressive are also contagious assets on the field.
And then there is Rafael Bautista, who gets overlooked but has earned a ticket to AAA in 2017.
Power – Discussion needs to include Drew Ward, who is chugging but chugging forward in AA at age 21. His underwhelming end at AA fizzled the heavy pop he finally started to show in Potomac. Juan Soto brought a big bat to the #3 spot in the same batting order as Nick Banks — but at age 17. One wonders whether he gets the push to Hagerstown or stays in SS next year. That’s one of my top intrigues looking ahead, especially given our power drought.
As for the 2016 draft power, Conner Simonetti was drafted for same and that’s what he showed, but at too low a level to analyze. Unfortunately for this discussion and the Nats, both Simonetti and Marmelos are limited to 1B-DH. a more likely scenario is an infielder forced to shift to the OF because they hit hard but play positions at which Rendon and Turner are entrenched.
forensicane
7 Sep 16 at 3:21 pm
Count me in supporting a trade for a superstar controllable bat. There is a lot of pitching depth at the high levels and the Nats have showcased some of it. There is depth at other positions in the lower minors and the Nats can package well for the talent they have eyes on. always fun to see Rizzo spot undervalued trade targets and here’s hoping he is circling another one.
forensicane
7 Sep 16 at 3:24 pm
Sign Ramos; … man that’s a tough one. He’s the definition of a contract year production guy who has skyrocketed his value. If you sign him for 4 years … are you getting 2016 Ramos or 2015 Ramos (when he hit .229)? Are you getting 2016 healthy Ramos or the Ramos from 2012, 2013, 2014 who never played more than 88 games in a season? I love the guy and he’s had a great year; but i’m hesitant to sign another injury prone guy to a big money deal when you already have a slew of fragile guys (Zimmerman, Werth, Rendon).
Todd Boss
7 Sep 16 at 4:21 pm
If you assume that the team is going to put Turner at short and move Espinosa … then what do you do?
– Trade for a quality CF; not exactly growing on trees.
– Sign a quality CF: FA market is pretty thin there for what you get.
– Move Harper to CF and sign a quality corner OF; better.
Do we think Harper can handle CF full time? I think so: per fangraphs he’s now got 918 career innings in Center with a career uzr/150 range factor of 16.7 there … that would place him in the Hamilton/Inciarte range in terms of center fielder quality (nobody’s in the same league as Kevin Pillar, the current league leader).
Another avenue: keep Turner in CF and acquire a SS. Is Turner more valuable in CF or at Short?
Todd Boss
7 Sep 16 at 4:27 pm
I just don’t see the Nats moving Harper to CF. They’ve had plenty of opportunities to do so over the last couple of years and have resisted, I think mainly trying to preserve their #1 asset. The guys they were considering last year, Heyward and Cespedes in particular, aren’t really CFs (and Cespedes has said he isn’t going to play there anymore this year, or some such). So although I’ve been in the “trade Danny” camp, it’s hard to completely pull the trigger on that if you can’t come up with someone better than Danny at the plate to replace Trea in CF.
Who is out there for CF? How cheap might Carlos Gomez come after his total career collapse? Would he be worth a reclamation gamble at 31? Would he be any better than Taylor? Than Revere? (Sorry, but you’re not going to get me on the “bring back Desi” bandwagon.)
Ramos . . . man, that’s a tough one. He’s going to want at least four years, probably at least around $15M per. He’s rarely stayed healthy and is not going to age well. Severino posted a respectable (for a catcher) .653 OPS at AAA. I think you give him a bunch of MLB ABs in Sept. and start crossing your fingers. Ramos will get the QO, and there would be an outside chance he would take it, but this is his big chance to cash in. Perhaps the Nats offer him something like 3/40 with an option year and go for the “team discount,” but I wouldn’t hold my breath on him taking it.
KW
7 Sep 16 at 8:10 pm
Robles: yes, I think I would take him as a corner OF if he can produce Turner-like numbers. Of course I think Turner-like numbers are eventually going to be something like 20/60 years at his peak. If he doesn’t get to the 20 HR range, though, that’s fine, considering what else he can do, and also if he’s at SS. But if Turner tops out at the 12-15 HR range, and Stevenson takes over in CF with Revere-like-non-power, can they afford someone like Robles in LF if he’s only jacking 12-15 himself? Part of that equation may depend on whether Bryce is still in RF . . .
KW
7 Sep 16 at 8:20 pm
And now the Stras MRI vigil begins . . .
KW
8 Sep 16 at 5:14 am
Disaster–best case scenario Strasburg will not need TJ surgery again, but is effectively done for the year. They won’t be able to use 9 relievers a game in the playoffs, and they won’t be facing Atlanta.
Karl Kolchack
8 Sep 16 at 7:20 am
Regarding free agents, I’m starting to think the Nats will not be major players this offseason. For this reason: has anyone noticed just how awful attendance has been lately considering where the team is right now? I was at the park on Labor Day–beautiful holiday, day game, first place team, joint should have been packed–yet there were only 26,000 at that game, and less than 20,000 showed up the last two nights. The 17,000 number on Tuesday shows how much their season ticket base has shrunk, as I was glancing through the 2015 attendance figures on BR and they did not have a single game last season under 23,000.
Of course, they raised ticket prices (our ST group had to eat a $10 a game increase), parking is much more expensive with so many formerly empty lots now being built on, and the Metro being all screwed up makes that option a lot less attractive. With the crappy MASN deal still in place, I suspect ownership is less than thrilled that a team cruising to the playoffs in September is playing before a less than half filled stadium, and the budget for player salaries next year isn’t likely going to be increased.
Karl Kolchack
8 Sep 16 at 7:35 am
I agree that they won’t be that active, but think it’s more due to less glaring needs. But speaking financially, I think they will show more limitations going forward than in the past and the MASN mess will be much more responsible than attendance, which is still above average if not as much as it could be. I was really struck by the need to get Pittsburgh to include $500k in the MM deal even after payroll went down AND Werth deferred $10m. It suggests that under their current revenue steams and not banking on any improvements from MASN, their sustainable payroll level is $110-115m. Angelos sucks, almost as bad as Stras’ injury.
Wally
8 Sep 16 at 8:54 am
Unrelated to Strasburg-watch, this was an interesting read from yesterday. http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/washington-nationals/nats-giolito-his-frustrating-rookie-year-velocity-issues-bullpen-role?utm_content=buffer3b975&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Chase Hughes interviewed Giolito and asked him specifically about his struggles and his velocity. He says his mechanics have been a mess all year, leading to his command issues early, changing windups, loss of velocity, everything.
It seems consistent with reports (from Keith Law mostly) that “someone” in the organization “tinkered” with his mechanics for some reason … then i guess didn’t hang around to try to fix them? It could easily explain why everything went to hell for him this year. Right now he’s not an option for a post season roster, nor is he an option to make the MLB team next year (health considerations otherwise). He needs the attention of a quality pitching coach.
Todd Boss
8 Sep 16 at 10:40 am
I’ll wait to post until we get word on the MRI damage. No need to put up something til we know what’s going on. But i’ll probably put in some guesses as to next steps.
Todd Boss
8 Sep 16 at 11:22 am
“I fell into some really bad habits, really awful mechanical habits,” he explained.
“Very early this year my walk numbers were pretty crazy high. I had no command. I couldn’t throw the curveball for a strike. I was kind of all over the place. I was flying open, I was never repeating my mechanics. Then, I did a good job of calming that down and fixing that stuff. I was able to throw more strikes.”
I read from this that his mechanics were off, not that someone else ruined him.
Understanding journalists and their sources, it follows that as a Boras client, he who sandbagged the Nats about Werth’s shoulder and represents, ironically Strasburg, that Boras would be Law’s “source” so the organization could be blamed for technical problems that are the players fault and player’s fault alone. because people like Boras know that pundits want page views enough that they will run with the source as fact.
I am content to bet on Menhart and Maddux.
Boras is what he is supposed to be. A media-manipulating shyster who exploits writers and knows how to use that game.
forensicane
8 Sep 16 at 11:30 am
… But Giolito isn’t a Boras client. He’s listed with CAA Sports at both mlbtraderumors and Cots.
Todd Boss
8 Sep 16 at 11:39 am
And, defending Keith Law here, but he’s NEVER felt shy to post his opinions on things. He’s no shill. He’s a prospect specialist, so his expertise is in rating and ranking prospects. You know, guys who are in the minors making $1200 a month. Yes some of them are represented by big agents … but those agents aren’t going to make money on those prospects until they’ve got 6 years of service time in the majors and are ready to start hitting free agency. By that point, Law is 6 years removed from even focusing on them.
Law’s sources are basically scouts. Why would he “trust” an agent with information? The agent’s SOLE responsibility is promotion of his player at the expense of the team; why would you trust any information you got form one?
Call it “causation versus correlation” or whatever, but Giolito’s got a stellar reputation in the scouting community … he goes to his first MLB spring training, Law reports that someone fiddled with his mechanics, Gilito’s stats falter, he loses velocity, and then he gives interviews where he freely admits that his mechanics have been a mess. Sounds like a completely logical explanation to me for why he’s underperformed this year. And it gives me hope that the team, once it has the chance to focus on something besides winning playoff series, will then get to work with him, fix his mechanical issues, and get him back to the promise of what he once was.
Todd Boss
8 Sep 16 at 11:44 am
Todd: it (the Nats let someone tinker with the mechanics of their most prized pitching prospect, to terrible results) a possible explanation. One. Which is not the same thing as being actually correct. It could just be that he’s a young, tall pitcher and, like many young tall pitchers, is still working out his consistency and mechanics. Although that doesn’t give us as much of a stick to whack the organization with, and so is inherently less interesting. There are other possible explanations as well.
The trick is to avoid giving the “Law hypothesis” the presumption of truth and placing the burden of proof on any other possible explanations. A lot of stuff that gets reported – even by reputable reporters – turns out to be spectacularly wrong. That’s why they used to call newspapers “history’s rough draft.”
John C.
8 Sep 16 at 12:18 pm
I know there are rules about nepotism, but for several years, the Rangers let Mike Maddux have his baby brother tag along with him in spring training. Now, we have to accept that this brother knows nothing about velocity, since he didn’t have any. Also, since wins don’t matter, we have to ignore his 355. However, he was awful as a “prospect,” going 6-14 in his first full year in the majors with a 5.61 ERA, so he might know a little something about struggling to adapt to the next level. I wonder if Greg has plans for next March? Or just have Giolito stop by and see him on the way home to L.A. He can stay with Bryce.
KW
8 Sep 16 at 12:27 pm
Stras “next steps”: even if the news is “good,” it’s still going to involve rest and limited availability. That’s a given. Even if not out for good, he may be out for the first round.
Are the Nats dead in the water without him? No. Obviously there chances would improve if he was available. But I’ll go to war with Max and Tanner at the top of the rotation. Unless Kershaw comes back, the Dodgers don’t have a match for either of them. The Cubs are another story, but we get there when we get there. Sure do need the news on Ross to be good, though.
KW
8 Sep 16 at 12:46 pm
Whatever mechanical improvements he can make to add 8 mph to his fastball, he should then teach it to the rest of the staff. Lopez would look good at 107 mph…
Todd.. you are going off the deep end with these conspiracy theories. I’ve seen Giolito get destroyed by hitters as far back as his first futures game. Well before the alleged boogeyman ruined his mechanics.
What needed a mechanical adjustment was the hype machine.
My idea is to boost his confidence by pitching simulated games to Zimm and Espi. That’ll fix his swing and miss mojo.
Marty C
8 Sep 16 at 1:34 pm
Marty, you can add Michael Taylor to that simulated lineup!
KW
8 Sep 16 at 2:13 pm
Thanks, Todd, for correcting my error. With that said, agents work over the press as a matter of professional responsibility. Boras is the best at it.
Whomever are Law’s alleged sources and what they told him vs. what he wrote is debatable.
What we do know is that the pitching braintrust in the Nats minor league system has a good track record for developing pitchers up and not the other way around. Some rise, some, like Johansen, never get their mechanics in order or do not do so in a timely manner. The issue is far from resolved here, if there is an issue.
I have a problem with law impugning professionals in the industry based on someone whispering to him. It is a smaller scale of Barry Svrluga playing Carl Bernstein with the Nats clubhouse and turning Bud Black into the Joe Torre that got away. We are people on a blog, these are people with professional responsibility who care not about muckracking if they get page hits.
forensicane
8 Sep 16 at 2:26 pm
I just find it hard to believe that an entire industry is wrong on a prospect to that level. Edge cases in the Top 100 prospect lists? Sure there’s misses in there. But top 10 guys across the whole of the minors? As reported in multiple sources? Harder to fathom.
Giolito was rated, in the pre-season, by the following outlets with ranking: TopProspectAlert: #3, Baseball Prospectus: #3, MLB.com: #3, Scout.com: #3, ESPN/Keith Law: #3, Baseball America: #5, Prospect Digest: #3. The only major outlet that didn’t report a top 100 list this year was Fangraphs because they lost their lead prospect analyst to one of the teams.
So, how many of these top 10 guys are as BAD as you make Giolito out to be Marty?
I’ll use BA’s top 100 list as an example. Here was BA’s pre-season top 100 list. Lets go pick by pick:
1. Corey Seager: fantastic season, probably the unanimous NL rookie of the year and probably a top 5 MVP candidate
2. Byron Buxton: debuted last year at 21, struggled again in earlier this year but has been hot these past few weeks after some time in the minors (too early to tell).
3. Yoan Moncada: was in AA most of the year, just called up as a 21 yr old ( too early to tell)
4. Julio Urias: a 19yr old with 13 starts in the majors for a playoff contender with about league average stuff (ERA+ of 106)
5. Giolito; a 5.59 ERA in 19 mlb innings with more walks than strikeouts and “missing” several ticks off his reported average fastball velocity. Still only 22, with two less seasons of development time as compared to a typical 22 yr old thanks to TJ surgery and its timing, plus self-reported mechanics issues, so yes its too early to tell.
6. JP Crawford: in AA and AAA this year as a 21yr old.
7. Alex Reyes: has a 1.52 ERA in 23.2 innings so far for St. Louis, an electric arm, just turned 22 but had awful numbers in AAA Memphis
8. Orlando Arcia; just turned 22, 74 OPS+ for Milwaukee in his first MLB days but he’s a defense-first short stop with 65s and 70s for speed and defense
9. Trea Turner; has exploded onto the scene with a 135 OPS+ while playing a new position for playoff contender.
10: Joey Gallo; 80 power but is blocked at the MLB level; has 25 homers in 100 games in AAA this year.
ok; so of these 10, how many would you say have so VASTLY under performed as compared to their pre-season ranking that you call into question the sanity of the evaluators? Just Giolito?
If its just Giolito, then maybe (and this is kind of my point) there’s an explanation for what has happened to him this year?
Todd Boss
8 Sep 16 at 3:27 pm
And one other point here; If you’re suddenly telling me that Reynaldo Lopez is infinitely a better “prospect” than Gioilto, then how do you explain HIS stat line so far in the majors?
Lopez: 5.52 ERA, 1.705 whip.
Giolito: 5.59 ERA, 1.759 whip.
Damn that looks kinda similar doesn’t it? They’re both putting way, way too many guys on base (either by walk or by getting hit) and both are exhibiting command issues and are eminently “hittable.”
You’d almost say that both are just kind of young and still figuring sh*t out. Not that one is appreciably better than the other thanks to velocity maps.
Todd Boss
8 Sep 16 at 3:31 pm
Giolito and Lopez, with their similar results and yet different treatment, are well on their way to being in one sense the next Strasburg (Giolito) and Jordan Zimmermann (Lopez). Like Strasburg, Giolito will likely never be truly appreciated because the hype machine has set a standard where, if he pitches like Kershaw, that will just be “what he’s supposed to be.” Anything less than that will be considered disappointing, and will justify psychoanalyzing and judgment. OTOH no one really saw Zimmermann coming, so anything we get out of those guys is AWESOME. And then we can praise them for being “cool” and “able to handle adversity” even if the stats line doesn’t justify the distinction.
John C.
8 Sep 16 at 4:06 pm
Todd … Lopez did get 10 k’s in one game. I’m not sure Giolito has had 10 swing and misses in 5 games! You would admit that topline 99-100 mph gives a pitcher more of a tool set than 93-94. That is my greater point. Syndergarrd can figure out the finer nuances of pitching while he is blowing hitters out of the batters box with high heat. Which is kind of what we were all expecting from the Giolito hype.
I am not even saying Giolito is bad. I rank him up right up there with Voth who I think is good. And it looks they might have the same arm talent which does not make Voth the #1 or #3 prospect in baseball either.
I pointed out on your blog last year and early this year that I thought he had lousy loose mechanics and was not near ready. You responded by posting a video of him pitching and said his mechanics look great. You are just making excuses for his velocity, development, mechanics everything. What none of us thought was that he sat at 92-93 mph. That 100 mph heater of Giolito’s was apparently just a rumor or something he did once in high school on a souped up radar gun.
He is going to have to hone that curve like Bert Blyleven to be elite if that’s all the stuff he has. Let’s hope he does. But I’m not going to make excuses for him with some crazy backstory about how a coach tweaked him from 100 mph to 92 mph. You keep saying how young and inexperienced he is , but also want him to be his own pitching coach like baseball’s version of Bubba Watson.
Maybe this is who he always was and the scouts ate the hype.
Marty C
8 Sep 16 at 4:16 pm
http://meadowparty.com/blog/2016/09/08/klawchat-9816/
Law got asked two more giolito questions back to back. Not sure if i’m feeding the fire here or not.
Marty; i thought his OVERALL mechanics looked good. Ie no head jerk, smooth motion, nothing weird or quirky. There’s macro mechanics and then there’s micro mechanics that are a lot tougher to see on grainy youtube video. Stuff like landing positions being adjusted an inch or so, or a change in degree of arm slot. I’m interpreting Giolito’s self-analysis comments more towards the latter. And yes, it does sound like micro mechanics are the cause of him losing velocity and command. I mean come on; he’s changing his overall motion mid-season! Is that ever good?
You didn’t address my last point; how many consensus top 10 guys are as bit of a “miss” as you’re claiming on Giolito? And then how many of them just turned 22 and missed two full seasons of development AND have had curtailed workloads thanks to injury return?
Btw, if you want to know swing and miss stats they’re here: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=15474&position=P . NO, Giolito hasn’t had a ton but he does have 5% swing strike % on his fastball and 17% on his curve for his limited sample. But its fair to say that a) his entire 2016 season is suspect and b) we’re talking about ridiculously small sample sizes anyway.
Todd Boss
8 Sep 16 at 5:13 pm
The debate is being mischaracterized. I have not seen anyone characterize Giolito as a bust. It is his supremacy that is being debated. Not so long ago Dylan Bundy was the best pitching prospect in baseball, and Trevor Bauer close behind.
Lopez dominated for a run in AA that outshines Giolito’s body of work to date. At some point measurables have to translate into results and when they do, a person is the big boss. That’s why Turner has finally been acknowledged, however late, as a better prospect to the Nats than Giolito.
Giolito may yet be an ace. That, too, is resolved on the field and not the prospect list. Just ask Tanner Roark.
forensicane
8 Sep 16 at 5:32 pm
Glad to know Giolito is still top 3 among Nats in the vaunted “MartyC prospect rankings” we all wait for with baited breath.
Derek
8 Sep 16 at 6:29 pm
In the summer he turned 26, Randy Johnson had an ERA of 6.67, a WHIP of 1.854, and a BB9 of 7.9. The Expos gave up and traded him to the Mariners. Adam Wainwright also didn’t make the Cards’ rotation until the summer he turned 26.
My point is that it often takes big pitchers longer to sort out their mechanics. There are a lot of moving parts that move over a long distance. Some figure it out and become dominant. Others become Alex Meyer or Jake Johannsen. Giolito already seems to have figured out more than that duo, at a much earlier age.
The Nats have people who understand pitching mechanics. Look at how someone–we’ve never been told who (Spin Williams?)–totally changed Strasburg’s mechanics last season, turning him into the monster we’d expected him to be since he was Giolito’s age.
Yes, I’m concerned about the supposed “loss” of velocity from Giolito, but mechanics could bring back 2-3 mph. “Velocity” isn’t going to determine whether he makes it, though. Lopez has the velocity and is getting hit equally hard. They’ve got to learn to locate their pitches better, to throw their secondary pitches for strikes, and to lower their walk rates.
There are plenty of examples of super successful pitchers who don’t throw 98. We’ll see. My overriding point is that we shouldn’t judge for four or five more years. That’s hard in this age of instant prospect gratification, though. (Trea, you’re spoiling us!)
As for me, I’m 100 times more interested right now in whether Stras will be available and full steam for the postseason than I am about about a guy who may or may not crack the Nats’ rotation in 2018.
KW
9 Sep 16 at 7:10 am
Okay… time for me to lambaste Harper so he will heat up like the others I criticize.
His clutch time ab last night was pathetic. Whatever Harper’s good stats are this year, they are about the emptiest I have ever seen. He has become a real strikeout threat again. His lack of RBI’s batting 2nd to 4th his whole career is starting to speak for him.
Aside from his obvious playoff clutch, dude has to start getting some of his hits and HR’s when it matters.
Hope that does it.
Marty C
9 Sep 16 at 9:52 am
Derek.. not sure what you’re talking about… Do you have any opinions on these guys? That’s what these discussions are for.
I was the only one here that went out on a limb months before Giolito even started his first MLB game and said I thought maybe he wasn’t the chosen one per the hype. Based on minor league performance to date. Then he shows up and shows everyone why he actually wasn’t dominating the minors like a #1 prospect. Was i wrong?
I was right on Turner. Probably wrong on Rendon. Looking more right on Goodwin.
Just opinions. Might as well have some if going to spend many hundreds of hours watching these games and following these guys.
Randy Johnson a bad comp to Giolito now. Would have loved to comp him there, but you can’t compare him now to the hardest throwing starting pitcher of all time. Of course I hope he makes it. Willing to give him plenty of time. Hope it’s not age 26 as that TJ elbow will have a lot of years on it by then.
I would have loved a peek at what Voth could have done vs. MLB hitters this year. Would have been nice to find if his stuff played either way. He deserved a look. Not sure why he didn’t get it. Maybe they were scared to expose him and lose value as a trade candidate.
Meanwhile, FP was hinting last night that Drew deserves a look at starting SS.
Skole is a guy I think will end up hitting MLB pitching better than minor pitching when he finally gets his shot with someone.
Marty C
9 Sep 16 at 10:15 am
Bundy’s decline is easily explained; shoulder injury, not elbow. That and the fact that he plays in the Baltimore organization, which may be the worst organization to develop pitchers in the game (see also Arrieta, Jake) I’m not sure I ever saw Trevor Bauer listed at the top of these lists like we saw with the likes of Gerrit Cole or Matt Moore.
As KW pointed out, Randy Johnson’s early numbers were awful. So were Clayton Kershaws. So were Sandy Koufax’s for crying out loud. How many guys show up in the majors with 300-350 career professional innings and dominate?
Todd Boss
9 Sep 16 at 11:00 am
Nats performance in total last night was listless … how do you get shut down by some noname from a team going no where like that? I think its Strasburg hangover.
Todd Boss
9 Sep 16 at 11:01 am
OK, then, Julio Teheran, Taijuan Walker, Shelby Miller…
And I agree with Marty on Skole. If Destin Hood and Tony Renda can make it to the majors, Skole will.
forensicane
9 Sep 16 at 11:59 am
Wait, what’s the argument against Teheran/Miller/Walker? That he’s a disappointment too? Teheran career 113 ERA+, 136 this year. Miller; I don’t know how to explain his drop off this year … but ask yourself; do you think 2016 is the norm for him or would you be more likely to bet that the lines he put up 2012-2015 are more appropriate? I’ll give you some concern on walker; but then also point out that he’s only 24. Here’s Sandy Koufax’s ERA in his first 6 seasons, from age 19-24: 3.02, 4.91, 3.88, 4.48, 4.05, 3.91.
Those are some big numbers. Point is; the majors are hard. especially on guys who are young no matter who they are. Its the rare ones that come up and dominate immediately.
Todd Boss
9 Sep 16 at 1:39 pm
Renda in the majors with Cincinnati, who is barely trying. Hood finally in the majors in his 8th pro season; but lets be honest, is that just a congratulatory call-up for a good AAA season or do we really think he’ll stick?
Its good to have surplus. Steven Souza was surplus and look what he netted us. Would you rather have Turner & Ross or have kept Souza and Ott? For me, I’m not willing to just assume that Skole could magically hit better in the majors than he has in AAA. The team has had him in major league camp multiple times. If he showed that he belonged in the majors, they would have already added him. He’s been rule 5 eligible TWO times already; if he was MLB ready then he would have gotten snapped up already right? I mean, that’s 29 other teams and all their evaluators who have passed on him not once but twice, have passed on getting essentially a free look at him for the following spring. Has Skole shown enough to be protected this coming october, or is he just like a slew of other veteran hitters in the “4-A” mold?
Todd Boss
9 Sep 16 at 1:44 pm
The Hall of Fame has welcomed five pitchers in the last three years. Four of them struggled mightily their first couple of years in the majors, with numbers that look pretty similar to those of Giolito and Lopez. Some threw hard; some didn’t. The only one who was good right off the bat was Pedro, but the Dodgers traded him anyway. In fact, Pedro, Johnson, and Smoltz (in the minors) all got traded young.
Skole’s slash line this year: .244/.337/.437. Souza’s slash line his last year in AAA: .350/.432/.590. For Souza, that has translated into basically a league-average major-leaguer.
KW
9 Sep 16 at 3:08 pm
I’ve actually seen Skole crush some homers in Spring training. Just tough to crack a lineup for a team like the Nats that doesn’t give young guys a shot unless they are exceptionally toolsy or athletic, other than emergency injury stuff. They’d rather have the Dan Uggla’s on the roster.
Skole was ruined by injury a couple years ago but his power is back now. The only truly big bopper anywhere in our system. Maybe a poor man’s Adam Dunn? People wanted to DFA Goodwin too, but I think he looks pretty darn good so far in his ab’s and in the field.
All these examples of pitchers slow developing… I was never arguing results. Just their stuff. People higher on Lopez now because his stuff looks better even with similar stats. More raw material to work out the puzzle with.
Pitchers don’t get a few years or even a dozen starts to work it out anymore at the MLB level. At least not on the good teams. The Taylor Jordan’s and AJ Cole’s get a quick look and if they don’t deliver rather immediately they are sent packing.
Marty C
9 Sep 16 at 3:25 pm