After “losing” the last two CBA negotiations, the player’s union was in a tough spot. They’ve already let the proverbial camel’s nose into the tent (with respect to the salary cap), and they knew they couldn’t completely get rid of it, so they leveraged what they could to get what they could.
Here’s some of the key parameters and thresholds the two sides agreed upon on 3/10/22. Using the excellent reporting by Evan Drellich from the Athletic as a starting point and then attempting to get information out of a dozen other sources who are dripping out CBA details … here’s some parameters of the new deal that i’ve found. there’s a lot to digest.
- No Lost games: 162 game season planned, starting a few days later than normal with a compressed spring training.
- Expanded Playoffs: this was the biggest bargaining chip the Players had, and they used it to get all the salary benefits below. 12-teams, a 3-game play-in, byes for the two best records. This is a huge win for the owners, who will net an estimated $85M per year with expanded playoffs. Phew. As a side effect, no more game 163s (a bummer), as the league will go to NFL-style tiebreakers to determine seeding. #1 Seed plays winner of #4/#5 Wildcard, #2 seed plays winner of #3 division winner/#6 wild card. No re-seeding. The play-ins are 3-game series entirely at the home site. I’m on board here, with the knowledge that a couple more teams can be a disincentive for FA spending (but can be a huge boom during the trade deadline).
- Pre-Arbitration pool of $50M. This is brand new, and addresses the player complaints about players not getting paid enough early. The idea here is to dole out this pool to the highest performers on pre-arb salaries to get them compensation for production before they can earn it through arb and free agency processes. The pool supports the best 100 players, meaning an average of $500k per player, which seems like peanuts honestly given the cases where you have a Mike Trout generating a 10-win season at age 20, but its a start. Jayston Stark reports that last year as an example, Vladimir Guerrero would have netted an additional $1.75M salary. Again; a start, but still not paying the guy anywhere near his value.
- Minimum Salary rises from $570,500 in 2021 to 700k, rising to $780k by 2026. That’s not bad.
- Minor league Minimum salaries are rising too. Veterans with prior big league experience who are in the minors earned a minimum of $93k in 2021: that figure rises to $114,100 this year, with small rises each year to max out at $127,100 in 2016.
- CBT Salary Cap rises from $210M in 2021 to $230MM/$232MM/$236MM/$244MM over the next four years. That’s something, probably not really enough in the grand scheme of things since there’s no corresponding floor AND only a few teams will even approach it. But its a start.
- New CBT breaking penalities: The thresholds for 2022 are $230M/$250M/$270M/$290M. The agreement does put in additional penalties for going way, WAY over it (like what the Mets are going to do this year), but still allows teams to duck underneath and “reset” their penalties.
- Dropping of $500M grievance from 2020 shortened season: I’m sure this was not something the owners wanted to see in a courtroom, given that the evidence clearly showed that they basically negotiated exactly to the number of games they wanted and the players knew it.
- Players Union does NOT drop existing grievance against Rays, A’s, Pirates and Marlins (all of whom took in tens of millions of dollars in revenue sharing and are accused of not using it for payroll). This still needs to be litigated, and in my opinion is still a huge issue in the sport. Really, if you get money from other teams and you don’t use it to enhance the on-the-field product, you really should just be forced to sell.
- New rules with 45 day notice as opposed to a year’s notice for any “on the field change.” I’m surprised they allowed for this, since new rules can be pretty jarring for veterans.
- Three specific rules coming for 2023: banning the shift, larger bases, and a Pitch clock. I’ve talked about these issues in this space and i’m good with all three. The pitch clock by itself shaved more than 20 minutes off of games in the league it was tested in, shifts can be show to be directly related with precipitous drops in BABIP and wOBA over the past few years, and larger bases is a nothing-burger rule change that nobody should really care about.
- 2021 Rule 5 Draft officially cancelled: apparently the teams got together and were just like, ah forget it, its useless anyway.
- Draft Lottery at the top: the two sides have agreed to a lottery at the top of the draft; the top 6 picks/worst 6 teams will now use a lottery to determine who drafts first as opposed to directly by their record. Baseball is not Basketball (the other major US sport that does this); you don’t get immediate-impact/generational talents at the top of each draft, and top draft picks very frequently flame out early, so the lottery in some respects is a superficial fix. However, the MONEY associated with the lottery slots is huge: the difference in 2021 between picking 1st and 6th was $3M. $3M in “bonus dollar currency” basically is a mid-first rounder, or two mid-second round players. That’s huge.
- Limits on teams in the Lottery over and over: this is pretty big. Large market teams are prevented from being in the lottery more than one season in a row, and smaller market teams cannot be in it two years in a row. So teams like ahem Houston and Chicago (who purposely bottomed out to get high draft picks for years in a row) can never do that again, and inept smaller market teams who year after year are in the lottery (Pittsburgh, Baltimore) are prevented from doing so as well. These teams will get kicked down to 10th in the order. This isn’t a panacea for tanking, but its a big win. The difference between the top 2-3 and #10 is massive.
- Removal of 2021 “man on 2nd in extra innings” rule. to the collective sigh of purists.
- Return to normal 9-inning double headers: again, a purist move to remove a one-off rule change for 2021.
- Service time changes: call this the “Kris Bryant” rule; if a player is kept in the minors for service time manipulation purposes but finishes in the top 2 of RoY voting, they get a full year of service time awarded. It only affects 4 players a year … but its a start.
- Permanent roster limit on # of pitchers at 13: this is probably good for the sport, and probably something teams saw coming anyway.
- Advertising on Jerseys: its coming. For me, as a long-time soccer fan, its a non-issue and inevitable. Purists will, of course, lose their minds the moment they see a patch on the Yankees’s century-old pinstripes. I think its just “patches” and not logos across the chest.
- Universal DH: this seemed like a no-brainer for both sides … and it is FINALLY here. I’ve been advocating for this move for nearly a decade; here’s a 2013 post I wrote about it, and basically everything I wrote then is still true. Ironic that our own Ryan Zimmerman, who probably could have hung on for another season had he known we had a DH, already retired.
- Limits on Options: this is a pro-player move that probably doesn’t come into play for a ton of guys, but some teams are notorious for basically using options as a way to have an expanded roster, sending players back and forth to AAA over and over (Ahem, Tampa). Eno Sarris dives into it more here. There were players who were optioned more than a DOZEN times last year, a ridiculous logistical nightmare for these guys.
- Amateur Draft now permanently at 20 rounds. This is not really that surprising; the league axed the entirety of Short-A ball, and rounds 20-30 basically existed to pick college players to play for half a season in these leagues. We don’t need that many players anymore … and for years the rounds 30-40 were essentially useless anyway.
- Draft Pick Inducements for teams who carry top-performing rookies from opening-day. Interesting. Still seems like a crap shoot, and something that only affects the absolute very best rookies.
- Easing the Unbalanced Schedule: starting in 2023, teams will play fewer divisional games. Interesting. Details still coming in, but it sounds like each team will play all 30 teams each year. That’d be really different. Instead of playing each divisional rival 19 times each year, that will fall to 14 times (56 of the 162 games), with the difference made up with a ton more interleague play.
- Arbitration players to get cut in Spring training get full salary: thsi is a nice little pro-player change: if a player settles with his team on a figure, he’s guaranteed that number; no more cutting a player in spring training and getting away with just a percentage of the salary.
- Small waiver wire changes: last year a player named Jacob Nottingham got jerked around multiple times in a weird waiver-wire claim issue between two teams, changing franchises multiple times. The players union clearly noticed and now teams cannot make a second claim on a player unless all other teams pass.
- PED Testing changes: players will be tested more, and HGH testing will go from a blood draw to a blood spot.
Delayed negotiations: the two sides kicked the can down the road on two issues now tied to each other:
- Qualifying Offers: players want to get rid of them and the Draft picks associated with them (because the draft picks serve as a regressive action on the Free Agency market and depress value for players).
- International Draft: owners want it because, why else? It saves them money.
I personally think the players would be FOOLS to capitulate on the international draft for the sake of a handful of the (on average) 10-15 players a year who go through the QO process. I’ve done QO analysis for years and you can count on one hand the number of times a player was truly screwed by the QO process. And even those players who had to sit out part of the season, or take significantly less money than they were worth generally still made out later on. Players would be idiots to trade that benefit, which affects a fraction of 1% of their union to trade away the rights of every international player outside of the US. And while doing it, likely neuter or outright destroy baseball pipelines in certain latin american countries (akin to what the draft did to Puerto Rico). MLB owners are bottom-line, short sighted, wanting to save a penny instead of investing it to make a dollar later, and this is yet another example of them drastically harming the future of their sport … but the Union doesn’t represent 16yr old kids from the DR. So, expect it to happen.
What did we NOT get that was talked about/demanded?
- Salary floor: yes the salary cap went up by 10% … but the Salary floor was not correspondingly implemented. This seems like a loss to the players, who have seen their average salary drop by 6.4% since 2017 at the same time that MLB revenues have increased more that 30%.
- Age-based Service time: this was abandoned as a non-starter
- Earlier to Arbitration: abandoned as a non-starter.
- WAR-based salary determination; abandoned … though I like where they were going.
- Expanded Active Rosters: still on the table perhaps, but not codified. we may get temporary expanded rosters to 28 players thanks to the compressed spring training.
What do I think? Well, the players got some wins, but i dont’ feel like the owners really had to make sacrifices. No salary floor, no elimination of the cap. The owners probably could care less about incremental salaries for the windfall they’re going to get from expanded playoffs. Notably, the player’s union vote included every “executive committee” player (basically the most respected veterans in the league) rejecting this deal.
but at least we’re playing ball again.
Note: a TON more detail has come out since this initial posting. The Athletic has a very comprehensive article on the new CBA with a ton more details here:
Todd, what you missed was a new 4th level of punishment for going over the cap. There’s a reason the Yankees and the Mets voted against the deal.
I haven’t seen the numbers yet but this looks like real punishment.
Not having a salary floor is huge, in a bad way.
Mark L
11 Mar 22 at 11:16 am
Yeah i alluded to it. I couldn’t find the details on the penalty but know it was there.
Todd Boss
11 Mar 22 at 3:53 pm
Just found out the thresholds are $230 million (the cap), $250, $270 and $290,the so-called Mets cap.
Don’t know the penalties yet.
Mark L
11 Mar 22 at 4:59 pm
More details coming in every day; i’m going to update the original post with more findings.
Todd Boss
12 Mar 22 at 12:32 pm
Todd, thanks for breaking down the details. I haven’t had a chance to parse them.
I’ll start off by noting two related points: I’m having a hard time working up energy to care again, after this pointless exercise, and . . . it was a totally pointless exercise, as these are relatively minor changes that could have, and SHOULD have, been worked out without a lockout.
I won’t go so far as to say that the players got screwed, but the concessions they gained were minor. There was little change to the free agent/QO system, the cap barely went up, and no floor was instituted. Adding a floor would do more for competitive balance and for salaries than anything else they could do. Adding a floor could add more than a BILLION in salaries that owners would be required to spend.
I guess I’m in favor of banning shifts; I hadn’t thought that much about it because I didn’t really think they would do it. It will be interesting to see how closely they call things on infielders who may play right up the middle and hedge over a little past the bag.
A pitch clock has long been needed and is much welcomed. Umps will also have to enforce keeping batters in the box and limiting how often they grant time to the batters.
Not surprised by the universal DH, and not fighting mad, but a little sad. I have spent my entire life in or near NL cities and have never regularly followed an AL team. The non-DH version of the MLB game is the only version I know.
I do like the draft lottery, and particularly limiting the number of tanking years a team can be involved. Will there be a lottery for the 2022 draft, or starting with 2023?
Interesting change on arb players who get cut in spring getting full salaries. Perhaps that will keep the Nats from offering arb to so many marginal guys, as they did this offseason. This is a move that may backfire on the players in general, though, if teams start non-tendering more players rather than bringing them back at least for the spring. For the marginal guys, one-sixth of the salary is better than not getting picked up at all.
Like it or not, I think an international draft is coming, and/or it will be rolled into the Rule 4 draft.
KW
14 Mar 22 at 9:51 am
My next thought is that the Nats are behind the eight-ball as far as roster construction, having not done much in free agency before the lockout. Cesar Hernandez is the only acquisition who moves the needle, and only just a little. If he, Franco, and Escobar end us as three of the four regular infield starters, that’s sure looking like an Oriole lineup around Soto and Bell. There was some pre-lockout chatter about bringing back Schwarber, which I guess makes more sense now with the DH here plus Zim retiring.
Of course there are a lot of questions about whether Robles, Garcia, and Kieboom deserve playing time. Their collective failure thus far is really hurting the franchise. (And yes, I know that Garcia is still young. But he also has a lot of concerning issues, not least of which is that the team doesn’t seem to trust him at SS.)
The Nats are totally screwed in pitching. Unsigned starting pitching is an ugly list, and perhaps even worse with relievers. I guess the Nat rotation figures to be Strasburg, Corbin, Fedde, Ross, and Gray. Egad. Espino and Rogers are still on the roster. Stras and Ross will be on innings limits. Maybe Cavalli will be ready by the time they’re shut down . . . but does it make sense to burn Cavalli service time in a lost season?
The bullpen was a dumpster fire in the last part of the season. One suspects they will bring in a lot of marginal guys off the streets and give them a look. There’s not a lot available in terms of quality guys worth the money.
All in all, this team as currently constructed may have a hard time even making a run at .500.
KW
14 Mar 22 at 10:14 am
2022 NRIs:
https://www.mlb.com/press-release/press-release-washington-nationals-announce-2022-non-roster-invitees
(Egad, again)
KW
14 Mar 22 at 10:39 am
It looks like the draft lottery starts in 2023. I assume the Nats remain eligible for a top 10 pick because they didn’t win their top 5 pick this season, but I’m not sure about that. https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-rule-changes-with-new-cba
Count me as not a fan of the lottery. I like what Atlanta did in 2014 selling players to build their system but maintaining payroll in the 90m range by doing things like buying Touki Toussaint from Arizona. That’s a viable strategy for a mid-market team that doesn’t get bundles of free draft picks from the league based on market size. Atlanta was bad for three years, then they went to the playoffs. The lottery makes it harder to tank to rebuild, but I think we’ll still see teams tank because they don’t want to pay anyone.
Bland Moniker
14 Mar 22 at 2:24 pm
The Cruz signing is interesting. He was still awesome with Minnesota last season but fell apart after the trade to Tampa. He’s certainly a solid RH bat to slot behind Soto. There’s also buzz out there that his signing is a lure for Correa. I don’t really see how that works but also wouldn’t hate it.
However . . . as I’ve pointed out several times in the offseason, the offense was still pretty potent in August and September and already figures to get a boost from Ruiz playing regularly. The bigger problem is on the mound, and there just aren’t guys to sign there for a quick fix. Obviously Sonny Gray was available in trade, but they didn’t make that trade.
Anyway, the Cruz signing does encourage me at least a little that they’re going to try to improve, at least some. We’ll see how much. Show me someone other than Dooooo for the mound and then we’ll talk.
KW
14 Mar 22 at 9:26 pm
Just now seeing that Ross is out at least six to eight weeks. Ouch. So far, the only starting pitching the Nats have brought in is another perpetual wounded wing, Aaron Sanchez.
I’m seeing that Doolittle is getting a major-league contract, so there are two 40-man slots to clear for Cruz and him. Start your DFA pool now. Ehire Adrianza, we hardly knew ye!
KW
15 Mar 22 at 8:23 am
Oops, I missed that they’ve also brought back Anibal Sanchez on the minor-league deal. They’re getting the band back together! LOL.
KW
15 Mar 22 at 8:26 am
If you look at the free agent market, there is almost no starting pitching left. Pretty scary if you’re the Nats f.o.
Mark L
15 Mar 22 at 10:25 am
I really like the one-year-deal strategy the FO pursued last year and is pursuing this year. It’s easy to see a deadline bidding war materialize for Cruz if he mashes during the first half (and hitting behind someone who will be on base ~45% of the time can only help…though the Cruz GIDPs are going to be annoying). Same thing with the relief pitchers.
It’s really hard to see any path to legit contention given the rotation. I suppose it’s possible Stras and Corbin could turn back the clock to 2019, but I’d put the odds at less than 25% for each and like 5% for both. And even if that happens, the back end of the rotation could be…not good. Soto-Cruz-Bell is a decent middle of the order, but the rest of the lineup (other than Ruiz, who I suspect will hit well…for a catcher) leaves a lot to be desired. For me, last in the NL East is far more likely than .500, but you could see an interesting summer where they don’t fall out of it until late if everything breaks right.
I haven’t given up hope on Robles (who actually has some decent MLB performance to look back on) and am close to giving up on Kieboom (who does not). Still, the world is littered with top prospects who sucked and then figured it out all of a sudden. That remains possible, if unlikely.
The player hitting stats are going to look really weird, I think. A bunch of below 100 WRC+ guys with two 110-130 guys in Bell and Cruz, and then Soto, who realistically could be up near 200 (all the projections have him in the 170s).
Derek
15 Mar 22 at 10:33 am
Per the FG free agent board, here’s the entire list of unsigned starting pitchers projected to have more than 1.0 WAR:
Zack Greinke (38) 1.5
Michael Pineda (33) 1.2
Danny Duffy (33) 1.2
Matthew Boyd (31) 1.0
Garrett Richards (34) 1.0
That’s it. Ones who were above 1.0 last season but projected below it this year are Tyler Anderson (2.1), Johnny Cueto (1.5), and (egad) Matt Harvey (1.9).
For frame of reference, Nat returning starters and their fWAR in 2021:
Ross 1.3
Fedde 1.2
Espino 1.0
Corbin 0.2
Gray 0.2
Strasburg 0.0
Rogers 0.0
Yikes. And the only free agent help is a bunch of guys equivalent to Fedde. Double yikes. I really don’t see how they can get out of the pitching hole without a trade or two.
KW
15 Mar 22 at 12:00 pm
Schwarber to Phils (at nearly $20M per, quite an overpay) and Suzuki to Cubs, so LF options dwindling. Brave trio of Rosario, Pederson, and Soler still out there. Conforto definitely not worth QO penalty, and Castellanos probably not.
Of course Bryant is still out there, and he is a Boras client and an ex-Cub. He’s been so up and down that I’d hate to give him a big/long contract, but if he needs a landing spot for a one-year prove-it contract . . .
Among internal options, before everyone proposes a platoon, make sure to look at Yadiel’s splits. He hit LHP significantly better last season than he did RHP. Then would his platoon partner be Thomas, or Robles? I’m in the camp of those who think that Thomas earned a regular job with a 133 OPS+ in his 45 games with the Nats (vs. 69 for Robles). Like Derek, I haven’t given up on Robles, but neither do I think he can be counted on as a regular right now.
KW
16 Mar 22 at 10:19 am
Kw, not sure what you’re doing looking at more lineup options. The Nats are pretty well done on that side.
The pitching side is looking bleak; Strasberg and Ross won’t be ready till late April and the rotation looks a t least 2 spots short. Your list above shows maybe Duffy and Pineda could help but that’s it.
Mark L
16 Mar 22 at 12:47 pm
Mark — I certainly agree that pitching is the greater area of concern, all the more with the news about Stras and Ross (who I’m guessing will be out longer). I just don’t know how you fix it other than by trade. Cavalli’s AAA numbers indicate that he’s not ready yet, and Henry isn’t even in the big league camp.
I mentioned Schwarber mainly because there was some continuing buzz that he might come back. I was saying even before the Cruz signing that the lineup at the end of last season was producing well. I do think it’s worth continuing to consider additional hitting options, though, for a couple of reasons: 1) there simply is no place to spend real money to improve the pitching, and 2) since the pitching is going to suck, we need all the mashing we can get.
I don’t know what trades might be available. The A’s and Reds seem to be dumping anyone who is owed real money. The Padres seem to be looking to move some contracts. I’m sure they’d basically give away Wil Myers, probably even pay part of his salary. Not sure he’d be worth it, though.
KW
16 Mar 22 at 1:17 pm
Quick attempt to stimulation more discussion here:
Josh Bell still needs a RH platoon partner… why not sign Sir Albert? If he only stands in the field against LHP’s the negative defense wouldn’t be the worst. He’d be a power RH pinch hitter, veteran experience/mentoring, and would give the team some milestone moments to celebrate this year.
Otherwise, perhaps they should look at someone like Tommy Pham and see if he can be a 1B/OF super sub?
MG
18 Mar 22 at 1:47 pm
Prompted by seeing what the Yankees got for Luke Voit. At that low price, would have been a good addition for the Nats. I just don’t trust Bell to be a full-time stud for this team.
MG
18 Mar 22 at 2:06 pm