Draft resources:
1st round: Elijah Green.
After a curveball at the top of the top of the draft (Texas taking Kumar Rocker at #3), the Nats found themselves in a fantastic position: all the main players they were reportedly considering were available to them. Parada, Lee, Green, and Berry (all the guys ever mocked to them) were there.
Who did they take 5th overall? Florida prep Outfielder Elijah Green. Here’s a couple scouting reports (which i’ve cut and pasted in the comments previously):
MLBpipeline: “Green is the son of former NFL Pro Bowl tight end Eric Green, and at 6-foot-3, 225 pounds, he looks like he could have followed in his father’s footsteps had he not desired a future on the diamond. Green really jumped on the map with a strong performance at the Area Code Underclass event back in the summer of 2020, leading some to wish he’d reclassified for the 2021 Draft, but he’s shown off his tremendous raw tools at IMG Academy this spring to put himself in position to be a very high Draft pick in 2022. A right-handed hitter, Green is capable of doing just about everything very well. He can make very loud contact and has proven he can drive the ball to all fields and hit the ball out of the park just about anywhere with at least plus raw power, and he’s done that this spring in front of a lot of decision makers. . The one question that had arisen about his offensive upside had been about the swing-and-miss in his game. He’s struggled in the past against elevated velocity and there are some concerns about his ability to adjust to offspeed and breaking stuff, but had assuaged many of those fears with how he has swung the bat this spring. Green is an elite-level runner who can steal bases and cover a ton of ground in the outfield, where he should be able to man center field, with a plus arm, for a very long time to come. His complete toolset doesn’t come around very often, so it’s likely someone in the top of the first round will call his name even if there are remaining questions about his hit tool.
BaseballAmerica: Green is one of the most dynamic and unique athletes scouts have seen on the baseball field in a long time. The son of 10-year NFL tight end Eric Green, Elijah’s physicality would stand out on a football field and is almost unheard of on the baseball field at his age. At 6-foot-3, 214 pounds, Green has tremendous strength and power currently and would look right at home standing next to the top sluggers in baseball as an 18-year-old. His power/speed combination with his frame gives him the biggest pure upside in the 2022 draft class as a righthanded hitter with the power to drive the ball out of any ballpark, while also turning in 70-grade run times. As one scout remarked, “Guys that big and that strong aren’t supposed to be running 6.5 in the 60.” Green isn’t a raw hitter without a plan at the plate either. He has an impressive track record of performance as an underclassman and accessed his power regularly in games over the summer showcase circuit, with USA Baseball’s 18U National Team—where he homered four times in seven games—and this spring against strong competition with IMG Academy. There is swing and miss in Green’s game. He’ll get caught out in front on breaking balls and he has shown whiff tendencies against velocity as well, but he should make more than enough impact to live with those whiffs. He has more than enough speed for center field now, and will likely begin his career at the position, but will need to refine his routes and reactions to stick there long term. It’s uncommon to see a major league center fielder with Green’s size, but he is an outlier athlete. If he does have to move to a corner he has the tools to be an above-average defender in right, with plus arm strength to profile nicely there. While other hitters in this class might top Green as a pure hitter, you won’t find anyone with his combination of dynamic athleticism, power, speed and pure upside.
If you have a BA subscription, a ton of video here.
Fangraphs: The son of two-time Pro Bowl tight end Eric Green, Elijah became “Draft Famous” during his junior year, homering a couple times in high school tournaments held in big league parks, and looking much toolsier than all but a couple of the prospects who were a year older than him. He was seen a ton as a junior because he played at IMG, where lots of draft prospects from the 2021 class played, and played against. Scouts were blown away by his power and speed, but swing-and-miss issues were a concern. Green struck out in a third of his varsity at-bats in 2021, and swung and missed more than he put balls in play during that year’s summer/fall showcase circuit (several other top high schoolers put two times as many balls in play as they swung at and missed; an extreme example is 2021 draftee James Triantos’ 7:1 ratio) before things improved during his senior year of high school. What’s causing the swing and miss? Green’s swing is simple and direct, and he doesn’t have an elaborate leg kick (he barely has a stride) or a complicated load; he just tends to swing inside fastballs on the outer third and expand the zone a little bit against fastballs up. He is as gifted as any player in this draft, a 70 runner with at least 70 raw power that plays to all fields. His long speed gives him a shot to stay in center field, but his routes to balls can be a bit of an adventure, and he’s not a lock to stay there, especially if he slows down with age. If he even develops a 40-grade hit tool, then he’ll hit 30 annual bombs, and it won’t matter where he plays. There is hit-related bust risk here, but things trended in a favorable direction during Green’s senior season.
I understand there’s people who hate this pick. It is an upside pick, clearly. This pick is about ceiling, not floor. Picking Parada or Lee would have been about floor. This is about picking someone who might be the next Ken Griffey; a guy who’s already 6’3″ with 70 power who also has 70 speed.
2nd round: Jake Bennett, LHP from Oklahoma
Wow, woke up this morning to find out we’d taken a familiar face in Bennett. We drafted this kid in 2019 out of HS … and now we’ve drafted him again. Both HS and College teammates with Cade Cavalli. A post-season stud from Oklahoma who got a lot of eyeballs this post season.
So, for all the arguments about upside with the Green pick, this one is much more of a quicker to the majors pick. A polished college junior pitcher, like a lot of Nats upper round picks lately (see Henry, Cole as our 2nd rounder two years ago).
Here’s some scouting takes:
mlbpipeline: Bennett pitched with current Nationals top prospect Cade Cavalli at Bixby (Okla.) High and followed him to Oklahoma after turning down Washington as a 39th-round pick in 2019. They’re a contrast in styles, with Cavalli a flame-throwing right-hander and Bennett a polished left-hander. While he won’t emulate Cavalli by becoming a first-rounder out of college, Bennett could factor into the top two rounds after pitching the Sooners to the College World Series finals by winning four of his five postseason starts. Bennett is more effective against right-handers than same-side hitters because his 82-85 mph changeup is a legitimate plus pitch that tumbles at the plate, and he uses it almost exclusively against righties. Although his four-seam fastball has touched 98 mph, it usually operates at 91-94 with some arm-side run, and he must locate it up in the zone to be effective. He uses a slider with similar velocity to his changeup against left-handers, and it lacks consistency while flashing solid sweep at times. At 6-foot-6 and 234 pounds, Bennett is built to be a workhorse starter. He has an easy yet somewhat deceptive delivery that he repeats well, allowing him to pound the strike zone throughout his college career. He stands out more for his floor than his ceiling with a good chance of becoming a No. 4 or 5 starter.
BA: Bennett has been a big part of the Sooners’ strong 2022 campaign. The 6-foot-6 234-pound lefty has performed his way up draft boards this spring and has been a model of consistency for head coach Skip Johnson. Bennett is very efficient in his delivery. He has a bit of a longer takeback with some wrap and is on time with his front foot plant, releasing from a low three-quarters slot. With good extension out front, Bennett adds deception to his 91-94 mph fastball that can get up to 95. He likes to work both sides of the plate, and notches plenty of punchouts up in the zone, especially early in outings when his arm is fresh. Along with his fastball, he has a sweeping slider thrown in the 82-85 mph range that presents quite a problem for lefthanded hitters. Bennett has the ability to vary the break depending on the count, making it difficult for lefthanded hitters to lay off of it when it begins on the inner half and rides out of the zone. He will mix it in to righthanded hitters as well, busting them in on the hands when executed properly. He mostly throws his 82-84 mph changeup to righthanded hitters. Bennett is very effective locating the changeup on the outer rail, resulting in a lot of rollover swings and weak groundouts to the left side of the infield. In previous years, Bennett’s command had a tendency to come and go, which would get him in trouble at times with the self-inflicted busy innings. However, this spring has been a different story. He only surrendered 18 walks in his first 90 innings pitched while his strikeout total drastically increased, surpassing the century mark on the year during the Big 12 Tournament. Bennett joins a long line of Oklahoma pitchers that have transitioned from a talented thrower to a more polished pitcher under Johnson’s watch. The organization that drafts Bennett will be getting a mature arm who’s made the proper adjustments during his time in college.
Fangraphs Bennet has a huge, statuesque frame and his delivery is silky smooth despite a longer arm swing, though his arm slot does not impart bat-missing shape on his fastball. Instead Bennett is reliant on arm strength, which he came into more of throughout the 2022 college season, and he was dominant late in the year as Oklahoma competed in Omaha. His changeup and slider are nastier, and Bennett uses them with the frequency you’d expect depending on the handedness of the hitter. His slider plays against lefties in part because his arm slot is tough for them to pick up, while his mid-80s changeup has plus fade. There may be a way to tweak his stride direction, and by extension his arm slot, to help him create more carry on his fastball, which would give Bennett three swing-and-miss weapons instead of two. Otherwise, he looks like a quick-moving backend piece.
Conclusion on Bennett: potential is there to have 3 plus pitches, and most scouts think there’s room to work on him. No injury history, great size and pedigree. This could be the best 2nd round pick we’ve made (outside of the very promising Henry) in a decade.
Bennett’s stats:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bennet007wil
The thing that stands out to me is the very low walk number, giving him a low WHIP, despite a H9 figure that’s higher than you’d like to see.
McDaniel had Bennett higher on his board than others. Here is his take:
39. Jake Bennett (21.5), LHP, Oklahoma
Velo: 90-94 t96, Fastball: 50/55, Slider: 50/50, Changeup: 50/60, Command: 45/50
Bennett has the look of a big leaguer, though the role is still in question. His changeup is his best pitch, and he could stand to throw it more, which might dictate if he’s ultimately more No. 3-4 starter or eighth-inning reliever.
KW
18 Jul 22 at 8:26 am
McDaniel on Green:
7. Elijah Green (18.6), CF, IMG Academy HS (FL), Miami commit
Hit: 25/50, Game Power: 35/65, Raw Power: 70/70, Speed: 70/70, Field: 50/55, Throw: 70/70
About 18 months ago, Green (son of NFL tight end Eric) was on a trajectory to become the top player in this draft, with raw tools on par with the Justin Upton type slam-dunk prospects who easily go first overall. In the past two springs and summers, he has faced excellent competition but has had worrying swing-and-miss rates. Everyone raves about his makeup and desire to adjust his swing and approach. He also took on a much bigger challenge than he needed by playing at IMG when he could’ve played typical high school competition. He has closed well ahead of the draft and made notable adjustments with results to match in the past month or two.
There has been movement among teams to take a safe pick in the top 10 picks, then take riskier types later, and Green is running into that trend at the wrong time. If he can roll through the minors with strikeout rates under 25%, his upside is right there with Druw Jones: it’s very hard to think of players with 70 grades for power, speed and arm strength. If you have an appetite for risk/reward, this is your guy.
KW
18 Jul 22 at 8:31 am
As I’ve made clear, I’m not a fan of the Green pick and fear that there’s more Byron Buxton (or even Bubba Starling) in his profile than there is Griffey. McDaniel splits the difference with the Justin Upton comp, a guy who has had some very good seasons but has always been held back from reaching the next level because of lack of contact. Upton will surpass 2,000 Ks this summer.
That said, I could understand why the Nats didn’t completely love any of their options. As I said many times, they don’t need a catcher, so they would have been projecting Parada totally on his bat and probably into LF/1B/DH. That’s a hella high pick to spend on a DH . . . which is the same argument that could be made about Berry. I also cooled on Berry when I broke out how little he had actually done against the heart of SEC competition. Lee has great contact skills, but not a lot of physical projection and probably can’t stay at SS. Nevertheless, he was the name I was hoping to hear from Manfred’s evil lips. The love for Collier completely fizzled and he fell like a stone, for reasons that are unclear. But he may still progress faster than Green, and is younger.
Of course what the Nats, and nearly every other team picking in the top 10, really need is starting pitching, but no pitchers were thought to be top-10 caliber. Three ended up being reached for in the top 10 nevertheless. And frankly, I wouldn’t have minded a Nat gamble on Rocker at #5, but he didn’t make it that far. He could be in the majors next season . . . or not be completely healthy and turn into Rutledge/Denaburg/Romero.
I would like to say that I’m cautiously optimistic about Green, but I’m not. And it’s not just the player, it’s the organization. The Nats have no history of player development/improvement. They turned over some of their player development staff last offseason, but results aren’t readily apparent.
I sure hope I’m wrong. I hope Green is a superstar and that he’ll blow through to the majors in two or three years. But I’m not holding my breath.
KW
18 Jul 22 at 9:03 am
@KW, I agree with all of that. Hopefully, if Green signs on the dotted line, he can reach a 90th-percentile outcome and become a dude. But when I hear things like, “He does everything well *but* he swings and misses a lot,” I am reminded of the old joke: “But other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?”
We heard this same optimism projected about Desmond, Espinosa, and Taylor too, and we’ve seen the consequences most recently with Robles and now Casey, who has yet to even taste MLB action. Hopefully Green breaks the mold.
SaoMagnifico
18 Jul 22 at 10:13 am
If one wants to look at the glass as half full, the Nats have taken the two alleged highest-ceiling guys in the last two drafts, particularly power-wise. But the hit tool is the most important tool by at least a factor of three. House’s K rate a A level is 29%, and he’s more or less had a lost season because of injuries. He’s not much closer to DC than he was at the start of the year.
I don’t hate the Bennett pick, but it was pretty head-scratching to take him over Tidwell or Priellip. One suspects they already needed underslot savings because of Green. As I’ve noted, the Mets took Parada and Tidwell, two guys who would have made a lot of sense for the Nats, so we’ll see which team makes out better.
Looking for the Nats to take another college pitcher in round 3. Jonathan Cannon of Georgia seems to be the highest-rated one still available. He’s 6-6, so Rizzo should love him. Carrying my torch for sluggers Sonny DiChiara and Tim Elko in later rounds.
KW
18 Jul 22 at 12:59 pm
On the Soto front, I see that Rosenthal has floated something that I suggested: why wouldn’t the Rays try to pick up a talent like this that isn’t normally available to them? They could have Soto for three playoff runs, and they have the prospect talent with which to probably outbid everyone else. Seattle is in a similar situation, with a lot of prospect capital.
I do think that a trade is going to happen, that it won’t be with a team in the division, and that Rizzo will be trying to play three or four teams off each other to get the best package. The next couple of weeks will be really interesting . . .
KW
18 Jul 22 at 1:11 pm
3d round, Trey Lipscomb:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lipsco000tre
Had a massive senior season at Tennessee after doing very little in previous years, a la Will Frizzell from last year’s draft. Slashed .355/.428/.717 with 22 homers and 19 doubles.
KW
18 Jul 22 at 2:14 pm
And as a senior, he should sign for almost nothing. Presumably all slot savings for Green overpay.
KW
18 Jul 22 at 2:22 pm
4th round, Brenner Cox:
https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=488060
High school OF who will have to be bought out of a college commitment. What???
KW
18 Jul 22 at 2:34 pm
5th round, Jared McKenzie:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mckenz000jar
I see nothing special here whatsoever. This has to be an underslot guy. Three outfielders in first five picks. What about de la Rosa, White, Lile, Quintana, and Vaquero? Not to mention Green. I was unaware that OF was still a pressing need.
KW
18 Jul 22 at 2:53 pm
DiChiara to Angels in 5th. Sigh.
KW
18 Jul 22 at 2:57 pm
6th: Nathaniel Ochoa Leyva, a Brady House-sized SS out of Ontario. He’s already 19, so he loses some of the benefit of signing “young.” Next year will be his age-20 season. Similar situation to Sammy Infante.
KW
18 Jul 22 at 3:31 pm
7th: Riley Cornelio, RH starter from TCU with 4.68 ERA and a lot of walks. Ugh.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cornel000ril
For only the second pitcher the Nats have drafted, it’s difficult to see much promise here.
KW
18 Jul 22 at 3:50 pm
10th rounder Murphy Stehly had a huge season for Texas:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=stehly000mur
He had a .367 average with 19 homers and 23 doubles, 102 hits total in 68 games. Kinda stubbly at 5-10, 205. Also, he turns 24 in September.
8th rounder Chance Huff was awful at Georgia Tech (6.98 ERA). Not sure what they see in him, other than that he fills out a uniform well. 9th rounder Maxwell Romero is a catcher who hit .272 at Miami with 12 homers and 15 doubles. Interestingly, both of those players transferred out of Vanderbilt.
KW
18 Jul 22 at 6:44 pm
I assume you’ll do a draft recap post, so I’ll save my summary opinions. All in all, this seems like a really risky class, even by the Nats’ standards. Of course a lot of that likely was dictated by backing themselves into a corner with money because of Green. I don’t really hold much hope beyond the top four picks, although Stehly’s numbers do make him interesting.
KW
19 Jul 22 at 8:57 am
My jaw is on the floor with your overall take on Bennett
Best arm draft outside Henry in a decade ?
Wow
Alou2alu
19 Jul 22 at 10:17 am
Jeff/Alou: i wrote “This could be the best 2nd round pick we’ve made (outside of the very promising Henry) in a decade.”
Not the best overall arm … the best 2nd round pick.
I’ve been highly critical of our 2nd round picks specifically over the last 15 years … for whatever reason we really, really struggle with them. I like Henry … but then you really have to go all the way back to Jordan Zimmermann in 2009 or whenever to find a solid 2nd round arm.
Todd Boss
19 Jul 22 at 11:53 am
I realize there’s a ton of critcism of Green. But you can’t compare him to Desmond, Espinosa, Taylor. Those were not players who were i talks to be 1-1 picks. Those were not players scouted to wits end, playing at perhaps the most prestigous HS in the country for baseball, with full attendance at every major showcase. This is an 18yr old who plays CF with 60 power, a 60-arm, and 70 speed. That’s Willie Mays/Mike trout/Ken Griffey jr. that’s nearly a 5-tool player out of the box in terms of tool grades. that’s the ceiling. I’ll take that versus a current catcher who won’t stay behind the plate (parada) or a current SS who won’t stay there in pro ball (Lee).
Todd Boss
19 Jul 22 at 12:05 pm
I wrote above of the conundrum the Nats faced where they were picking. It’s sort of weird to say that I didn’t love any of the options at #5, but it’s true. If this had been the NFL or NBA, I would have been hoping that they would trade down and add a couple of extra picks. I do agree that Lee will probably end up at 2B, but I don’t know that he projects to be a star. His ceiling may be a pre-Nats version of Daniel Murphy.
I would be pleasantly SHOCKED if the Nats have stolen the next Junior Griffey in Green. I do think that Green may have a higher POTENTIAL offensive upside than Druw Jones, though. I think the Justin Upton comp for Green’s potential peak holds for now, unless he can really improve his contact. Upton was as toolsy as they come, but lack of contact has kept him from ever really becoming a superstar.
BTW, J-Up was a Rizzo 1/1 pick in AZ. The D-Backs passed on several pretty good college hitters to take him, all of whom have posted more bWAR than Upton: Alex Gordon (1/2), Ryan Zimmerman (1/4), Ryan Braun (1/5), and Troy Tulowitzki (1/7).
KW
19 Jul 22 at 1:09 pm
If you want a good laugh about “tools” grades, here you go:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-18-prospects-washington-nationals/
Nats top prospects for 2018. Robles has a 55/70 hit grade, while Soto’s is 30/55. Oops! They have Robles and Kieboom ranked ahead of Soto.
BTW, if anyone in baseball right now truly rates an 80 hit grade, it’s Soto. His ability to adjust to pitches is insane, as he showed again in the Home Run Derby. His BP pitcher was terribly inconsistent, yet he still managed to adjust and win the thing.
KW
19 Jul 22 at 1:35 pm
11th round: Luke Young, Midland JC (yet another Texas pick), 3.95 ERA, 12.4 K/9, only one game started this season.
https://www.gochaps.com/sports/bsb/2021-22/players/lukeyounghtu3?view=career&pos=p
KW
19 Jul 22 at 2:24 pm
12th round: Nick Peoples, another massive (6-5) high schooler.
https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=733865
One would think that it shouldn’t be difficult to buy him out of a New Mexico State commitment.
KW
19 Jul 22 at 2:28 pm
13th round: Marquis Grissom Jr., RHP, Georgia Tech
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=grisso005mar
Our ex-Expo friends have a new favorite prospect! One with a 5.75 ERA and 1.67 WHIP . . .
KW
19 Jul 22 at 2:52 pm
14th round: Cortland Lawson, SS for the Tennessee team that was dominant during the regular season. (Also a Sterling, VA, native.)
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lawson001cor
Not the greatest of hitters, but there is a MAJOR opportunity for a utility guy to move quickly through this organization. Jackson Cluff didn’t work out like they hoped.
KW
19 Jul 22 at 3:08 pm
15th: Kyle Luckham, RHP, Arizona State
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=luckha000kyl
KW
19 Jul 22 at 3:32 pm
16th round: Everett Cooper, HS SS from suburban Baltimore:
https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=447534
KW
19 Jul 22 at 5:49 pm
17th round: Blake Klassen, 1B/DH, UCSB (Arizona transfer):
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=klasse000bla
KW
19 Jul 22 at 5:51 pm
18th round: Brad Lord, RHP (starter), South Florida:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lord–000bra
KW
19 Jul 22 at 5:52 pm
19th round: Johnathon Thomas, CF, Texas Southern:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=thomas023joh
62 stolen bases in 53 games! Also hit nine homers even though only 5-7.
KW
19 Jul 22 at 5:56 pm
20th round: JeanPierre Ortiz, SS, Green teammate at IMG:
http://members.baseballfactory.com/player/jeanpierre/ortiz/b12aeec7d9a944f798dc259c4f8431c5
KW
19 Jul 22 at 5:58 pm
Six high schoolers, likely a Nats’ record in the top 20 picks. Only seven pitchers, probably also a record for least number. Five outfielders, three shortstops, two 3B, and one catcher.
KW
19 Jul 22 at 6:01 pm
FYI, the draft tracker is now updated for the 2022 draft class.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qd5DS9GlmkQOEh_zGhOvlhHK0EegqY1uJB4mLGmRBaY/
Three tabs populated: The main Draft Tracker, dating to 2005, then the 2022 Draft class worksheet, then the 2022 Local Player draft worksheet.
I’ll need some time to write a post summarizing thoughts on the class.
Todd Boss
19 Jul 22 at 6:15 pm
This is a class with a whole lot of lottery tickets, including toolsy high schoolers, college boppers, and a bunch of pitchers with high ERAs who will need a little fixing. That said, if only two or three of the lottery tickets hit, it will be better than most of their drafts.
KW
19 Jul 22 at 6:28 pm
Does anyone know who the Nats’ area scout(s) in Texas are, and whether we’ve changed them over time. It feels like there’s been a huge number of misses in that area in that 2-5 round range in recent years. Brigham Hill, Robbie Dickey, Nick Banks, Austen Williams, Cody Gunter, Jake Johansen. Maybe Mitchell Parker is looking like a success story, but it’s early.
Now we’ve drafted in the 4th round a guy in Brenner Cox that no one else has ranked anywhere (plus 3 more Texas guys in the rest of the top 10). I want to give the benefit of the doubt here, but…
NG
19 Jul 22 at 6:49 pm
It used to be Jimmy Gonzales (the Nats drafted his son or nephew one year), but I think he’s been promoted to a cross-checker now, so I don’t know who the primary person is. Rutledge also was from Texas, Cavalli and Bennett from Oklahoma, and Daniel Johnson from New Mexico. So yes, they’ve picked very heavily in that area.
Speaking of scouting, whoever was following Parada must have recommended some pitchers because they drafted two from Ga. Tech, neither of whom had very good numbers. They also drafted one of Green’s IMG teammates, Ortiz (about whom there is some speculation that he’ll be difficult to sign).
KW
19 Jul 22 at 7:33 pm
Romero and Fletcher from U of Houston, Kyle Johnston from U of Texas (the trade piece for Daniel Hudson), Will Frizzell from Texas A&M, a couple of Baylor guys who didn’t do anything — it’s a long list. Three first-rounders from that area in four years: Romero, Rutledge, and Cavalli.
KW
19 Jul 22 at 7:37 pm
On a positive note: Rendon from Rice in Houston, but his teammate Ricky Hague didn’t do much.
KW
19 Jul 22 at 7:39 pm
So it looks like we’ll probably end up signing 17/20 with the possibility we fit Peoples into the bonus pool. I figure Green likely gets close to $7M, which hoovers up most of the bonus pool and would already require nearly everyone else to sign below slot (Cox will likely sign for a little over slot and Ochoa Leyva might too). Ortiz in the 20th round looks good but probably just a courtesy pick, given he was seen as a third-round talent and presumably has a strong college commitment. I suppose it’s possible he and his IMG teammate Green put their heads together and give the Nats a way to sign them both, but that doesn’t seem like something that happens very often.
Most of the late-round picks (say, R8-20) look like throwaways, which is typical, but there are a few interesting names in there. Murphy Stehly will have to *fly* through MiLB to ever be considered a prospect, given his age, but if the offensive breakout this year is for real, there’s a chance (albeit a small one). Cortland Lawson doesn’t have a high ceiling but could be an Alu/Noll type who ends up rising relatively quickly and maybe getting some major league opportunities if he hits enough. Johnathon Thomas is a burner with a little pop, which is always an intriguing profile even if we rarely seem to develop them into useful players. JeanPierre Ortiz obviously would be a coup if he signs, but don’t count on it, as discussed above.
SaoMagnifico
19 Jul 22 at 10:46 pm
Sao, who are the two others you think are questionable besides Ortiz? I guess Peoples is one. They sound pretty confident with Cox so presumably had a deal with him. I guess Cooper would be the other questionable one?
I’m not that excited about overpaying Ochoa Leyva because he sounds really raw, hasn’t shown a lot of power despite his size. He’s a real project and already will be 20 next season, a la Infante when they drafted him.
The huge thing that Lawson has that Noll and Alu don’t is that he’s SS-capable. Cluff never clicked, and Fox looks like a deer in the headlights in an MLB batters box, so the door is wide open for someone with SS capabilities to advance quickly and fill that Difo shuttle role, or even become an effective bench option.
Thomas looks like Billy Burns. He could be fun. It’s intriguing that he had enough pop to get nine homers. One wonders if at least a couple were inside the park, as he also had five triples.
I agree that Stehly won’t have much time since he’ll already be 24.5 when next season starts. But I don’t mind taking flyers on guys who posted outrageous stats on a high-level team. I’m really looking forward to seeing what Lipscomb can do.
KW
20 Jul 22 at 8:05 am
New posted with a huge draft class review.
Todd Boss
20 Jul 22 at 9:38 am
[…] we already dove into our #1 and #2 picks in a previous post, and we’ve litigated it a bit in the comments. Green’s stature speaks for itself: […]
2022 Nats Draft Class Review at Nationals Arm Race
20 Jul 22 at 10:23 am
[…] Dear MASN Commenters: Bryce Harper was a JuCo pick. This, of course, is in reference to Elijah Green and his K rate that’s akin to President Biden getting Joe Manchin to toe the party line. OK, maybe not that bad. For (far) more astute commentary/coverage, check out Todd Boss’s post. […]
Nats Draft HS Position Players on Day Two – Wait; What? – NationalsProspects.com
26 Jul 22 at 5:34 pm