Now that we’re past CWS, but not yet to the draft, lets clear out some psots.
If a major prospect scouting shop publishes a top 30 list, you know i’m all over it. On June 15th, BA did so for our team. Here’s an analysis of the list, looking at players who rose/fell against BA’s list in January, as well as how BA’s rankings for a player may be out of whack with the general consensus by all the major shops.
Here’s the Mid-Season BA top 30 list in order:
| BA Rank 6/15/23 | Last Name | First Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wood | James | OF (Corner) |
| 2 | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) |
| 3 | House | Brady | SS/3B |
| 4 | Green | Elijah | OF (CF) |
| 5 | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) |
| 6 | Rutledge | Jackson | RHP (Starter) |
| 7 | Vaquero | Cristian | OF (CF) |
| 8 | Bennett | Jake | LHP (Starter) |
| 9 | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) |
| 10 | De La Rosa | Jeremy | OF (Corner) |
| 11 | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) |
| 12 | White | T.J. | OF (Corner) |
| 13 | Henry | Cole | RHP (Starter) |
| 14 | Cruz | Armando | SS |
| 15 | Lara | Andry | RHP (Starter) |
| 16 | Irvin | Jake | RHP (Starter) |
| 17 | Lipscomb | Trey | 3B |
| 18 | Ferrer | Jose | LHP (Reliever) |
| 19 | Pineda | Israel | C |
| 20 | Brzykcy | Zach | RHP (Reliever) |
| 21 | Alu | Jake | 3B |
| 22 | Quintana | Roismar | OF (CF) |
| 23 | Millas | Drew | C |
| 24 | Parker | Mitchell | LHP (Starter) |
| 25 | Cronin | Matt | LHP (Reliever) |
| 26 | Saenz | Dustin | LHP (Starter) |
| 27 | Young | Jacob | OF (CF) |
| 28 | Baker | Darren | 2B |
| 29 | Acevedo | Andy | OF |
| 30 | Solano | Edwin | SS |
Now, here’s some observations.
- Same top 2 for BA as in January, and confirming that Wood may be the best player we got in the whole post-World Series dumping. He’s settled a bit since his AA promotion, but still has an OPS north of .800 in AA at age 20.
- They’ve elevated House a couple spots, and they have him higher than anyone else had him this spring at #3. Why? Because he forced his way into High-A a couple of weeks ago and looks recovered from back and wrist issues. 2023 OPS so far: .829. not bad.
- Big Riser: Rutledge; #9 in January, #6 now and in stark contrast to other shops, one of which has him all the way down at #17. And who can blame them? So far in 2023; 11 starts, 3.18 ERA, 1.11 whip in AA. Last year in Low-A: 20 starts, 4.90 ERA, 1.39 whip. I mean, who would have predicted that you’d take a guy who couldn’t get guys out in Low-A, bump him up two levels, and suddenly he’s a top prospect again?
- Jake Bennett bumped up 3 spots from #11 to #8. It was probably dumb to start the guy in low-A as a 2nd round pick from a major conference with CWS experience … and rightfully so, he dominated it in April and early May. Lets hope he pushes for another promotion and ends the season in AA.
- Daylen Lile: what is going on here? BA had him at #27 in January, basically a non-prospect, now he’s #11 in the system. A true CF with some power and a ton of speed (18 SBs in 19 attempts) and he’s hitting in low-A; he needs a promotion. But where will he go? High-A has 40-man player De La Rosa in CF, AA has Hassell, AAA has Alex Call. In this humble opinion, the Nats could (finally) cut bait on Antuna, who is hitting f*cking .151 in High-A after getting outrighted off the 40-man and it confounds me why he still plays, so as to make some room for Lile or Green, both of whom may need to be promoted soon.
- Cole Henry treads water at #13, a bit lower than other shops. Its a “show me” season for Henry, to see if he’s recovered from a major shoulder issue. My hops are not high.
- BA has bumped up Jake Irvin, rightfully so. He may be posting a 5.25 ERA in the majors, but at least he’s in the Majors … which, remember, is the entire point of prospects. Should Irvin be ranked higher than guys like Susana (#9) or Lara (#15), who can’t get guys out in the bus league? Yes he should.
- Trey Lipscomb gets a bump up a few spots. He’s quietly made his way to AA a year after being drafted … think about this? Lipscomb was a 3rd rounder last year and is in AA, but Bennett was a 2nd rounder and is in High-A. Why? Lipscomb may be in AA due to positional scarcity; he’s not earning it at the plate with a sub-700 OPS figure right now, and he may very well trade spots with House in a few weeks when Brady needs to get moved up and play 3B.
- #21 Jake Alu gets back onto the rankings after being dropped out of the top 30. #21 seems about right for a 4-A corner infielder/outfielder type.
- Quintana dumped 5 spots, and rightfully so. He’s struggling in Low-A, and they’ve moved him to be a 1B/DH type. Not good; he’s gonna have to really hit to move forward as a 1B only guy.
- Mitchell Parker has taken a nose-dive, from #14 in Jan to #24 today. Rightfully so; he’s finally getting hit after succeeding in Low and High-A in the last couple of years. I think this was an inevitability; scouts never favored the guy, who seemed to be getting outs mostly due to deception and a funky delivery. in AA, he’s been exposed so far. One of 2 things happens from here: he either “figures out the level” in early 2024 and keeps on moving, or he’s relegated to be “funky lefty out of the pen” guy, a role that might get him to the majors faster.
- Matt Cronin also dumped a ton of spots, from #18 in January to #25, and rightly so; he’s getting shelled in AAA as a 25-yr old lefty bullpen arm. Word of caution; if they’re a reliever in college … they better be a really, really good reliever to count on them going forward.
- Dustin Saenz pops onto the list at #26 after not being ranked by practically anyone for a while, on the strength of his dominating low-A and getting moved to Wilmington. Unfortunately, he was already too old for low-A, made one start in high-A and got shelled. We’ll see where he goes from here.
- Jacob Young also resurrecting his prospect career, popping in at #27. the 2021 7th rounder without a ton of prospect cred hit .300 in high-A and got moved up to AA, where he’s sharing an OF with two of our best prospects in Hassell and Wood. He’s only 23, and he’s got some speed even if he’s undersized. Should be interesting to see where he goes.
- Another guy without much prospect love pops in at #28: Darren Baker. I mean, the guy is now in AAA, starting at 24, hitting .300. I’m not sure why he’s not a higher-ranked prospect honestly. Maybe b/c he’s got a limited ceiling as a utility 2B guy in the majors.
- The last two guys ranked were the top 2 prospects from the 2023 IFA class, Andy Acevedo and Edwin Solano. I call these types of prospects, “Call me in 3 years if/when they show up in Florida.”
Jan 2023 top 30 players now off the list:
- #16 Thad Ward: probably has exhausted his rookie status at this point.
- #23 Evan Lee: what happened to this guy? Went from AFL darling to 40-man to a lefty reliever who can’t get guys out in AA at age 26.
- #26 Gerardo Carrillo; Maybe we over-rated this guy all along. Ok, maybe *I* overrated this guy all along. Initially he presented as a more important player in the big Scherzer/Turner trade; we got back Grey, Ruiz, Carrillo, and Casey. Clearly Ruiz and Grey were the prizes, Casey a utility throw in (who’s now 27 in AA hitting .201), and we have Carrillo, who has never really shown he can get guys out above A Ball and is on the season-ending DL list right now.
- #28 Tim Cate: BA was one of the last hold-outs on the Tim Cate prospect bandwagon in January, now even they can’t find room.
- #29 Aldo Ramirez: 8 good starts for Low-A in 2021, and he hasn’t pitched since. Missed all of 2022, still on the 60-day dl halfway through 2023. Will he ever come back?
- #30 Will Frizzell, the Mr. Irrelevant of the Jan 2023 list. The team over-promoted him in the off season, quickly exposed him in AA as he hit .155, now he’s back in High-A where he should have been, hitting a healthy .889 OPS figure. Problem is … he’s been a full time DH this entire year, not even taking the field at 1B. Unless he’s posting a thousand OPS figure, its hard to be a prospect like that.
Other Notable names not ranked:
- Brenner Cox: not every prospect shop likes him, and he couldn’t even come close to cutting it in Low-A this year. Might be a wasted prep 4th rounder.
- Jared MacKenzie: he hit .400 in low-A last year, true CF. He’s not bad. Would you put him above a 1B only guy who’s the same age but in a lower league? Probably.
- Seth Shuman: Looked great in High-A until a sudden season ending injury (which screams TJ); no wonder he’s not on the fringes of the top 30.
- Samuel Infante, Brandon Boissiere, Jackson Cluff: what happened to these guys?
- Yasel Antuna: just kidding.
Law joining the ranks of those thinking that Skenes may be 1/1:
https://theathletic.com/4646310/2023/06/29/mlb-mock-draft-paul-skenes-pirates/
On the Nats: “I had a scout say to me that Washington is actually in the best position of any team in the draft – they like two players, and they’ll get one of them, and the most likely outcome is that the Pirates take one of the two and the Nats don’t even have to think before submitting a name on draft night. I imagine if Crews gets here, it’s full slot, if not slightly above.”
Pertinent to Todd’s post, as this season started, I wasn’t as interested in Crews in part because the Nats are so invested in OF prospects. Well, as of right now, Wood is the only one who is looking like he’s anywhere near the majors. House’s trajectory sure seems to be better than Hassell’s at this point, with Hassell currently slashing .223/.313/.303 at AA. He’s still quite young and trying to come back from significant injury, so I’m not giving up on him, but Crews would come in higher in the pecking/expectation order. Green and Vaquero still are a long way from maturing into their potential, and de la Rosa isn’t that class of a talent.
I’ve become enamored with Skenes’s very high ceiling, but it’s fair to say that Crews would still fit very well in getting the Nats rebuilt sooner rather than later. His arrival might also give the Nats some flexibility to trade from their OF prospect stock.
KW
29 Jun 23 at 10:16 am
Came here to post about Klaw’s latest mock. At this point, with the draft so close, these articles have to be seen as part of a team-driven (or agent-driven) negotiation. Guys like Law and McDaniel have all sorts of team and agent sources (some of whom they trust more than others to tell them the truth), which leads the writers to the conclusions they draw in their mock drafts.
What does it mean that every mock for months had Crews 1/1 and now all of a sudden every mock is exploring the possibility that Skenes may go 1/1? It means that the writers are all hearing the same thing from their various sources. It does NOT mean that the same thing each writer is hearing is the TRUTH, however.
If we assume that PIT prefers Crews to Skenes, it is quite clearly in PIT’s interest to make Crews think the opposite. These new mock drafts are consistent with that. They are also consistent with PIT actually preferring Skenes to Crews. And there’s really no way to use the mocks to distinguish between truth and puffery. We’re just going to have to wait, unfortunately.
Both Crews and Skenes are all star caliber players. If I had to bet on who will get more MVP/Cy Young votes during their pre-FA years, I think I’d bet on Skenes because I think his ceiling is higher. There’s a plausible outcome where Skenes is the best starting pitcher in baseball. I’m skeptical there’s an outcome where Crews is the best position player. On the other hand, if I had to bet on who is likely to have a zero or negative WAR MLB career, Skenes is an incredibly easy choice for that bet.
It’s a good spot to be in for the Nats. It’s easy to fantasize about a MLB OF in ’24 or ’25 that has Crews and Wood as young, cheap, controllable potential all stars. It’s just as easy to fantasize about a rotation in ’24 or ’25 led by Skenes and Gore at the top, with Gray/Cavalli and any number of other candidates filling out the rest.
Derek
29 Jun 23 at 10:48 am
the point I was making/questioning in the previous post was whether PIT goes to Langford at #1 and offers 2-3 slot money. the choice then falls to the Nats of Crews vs Skenes.
too outrageous?
FredMD
29 Jun 23 at 12:49 pm
Not outrageous at all. There has been a lot of scuttlebutt about about the Bucs longing for some underslot scenario. There also seems to be some building scuttlebutt that Crews doesn’t want to play for the Pirates and/or his camp thinks they would try to squeeze him on slot money.
FWIW, I’m all in with the players on these things. This is their only chance to get really paid until they make the majors and hit their arb years. Everyone says that this is the most talented draft pool in years. Crews, Skenes, or Langford all would have been 1/1 in the last several drafts. They all “deserve” slot, or more.
KW
29 Jun 23 at 9:44 pm
As we’ve discussed before, I’ve come around to the same conclusion that Derek expressed above, that Skenes probably has the highest potential ceiling of those in the draft. My only concern at this point would be along the lines of what Todd expressed when he was saying that Lowder “outpitched” Skenes. I saw similar things in Skenes’s NCAA start against Kentucky. I think he only struck out one during the first trip through the order, even with consistently going over 100. UK was still getting the bat on the ball. Skenes doesn’t have the concerning H9 number that Cavalli did that gave some concern that his fastball didn’t have enough moment, but it does give some pause when college hitters can put his 101/102 into play.
The flip side of that is that Skenes is a two-way player who just started pitching full time for a top college program last fall. He still have some things to learn, and apparently is quite a willing learner.
Crews is going to be a very good pro hitter from Day 1. He’s going to be a doubles machine. It’s really difficult to project his pro homer power. I do love that he doesn’t give away outs, is on base all the time. Sure would be nice to have more of that mojo in the organization.
KW
29 Jun 23 at 10:05 pm
Agree with Todd on Bennett, it was dumb to start him this year at Low A.
The numbers posted on Trey Lipscomb are wrong; at Harrisburg he’s hitting at a very healthy .815 OPS.
Mark L
30 Jun 23 at 8:26 am
in fairness to Todd re Lipscomb numbers, he may have started this post before Trey’s recent tear
FredMD
30 Jun 23 at 9:53 am
Lipscomb was my under-the-radar pick to click this year. Sure didn’t look like a good bet at Wilmington, where he was scuffling with a .251 BA. It seemed like they only moved him up to clear an A+ slot for Brady House. Perhaps the hitting coach at Harrisburg has found the right formula for Lipscomb, who is indeed on a tear. He was a college senior signee, but he just turned 23 this month and is at AA, so he’s right on track, all in all. I don’t know that he has a very high ceiling, but if Michael Chavis can have a major-league career, then it seems possible that Lipscomb can be at least that level. He doesn’t strike out as much as Chavis, so perhaps he can be a bit better.
KW
30 Jun 23 at 10:44 am
Lipscomb; its entirely possible i mistyped his stats. 🙂 Its also true that I wrote up this BA post like 2 weeks ago, the day the list dropped, so yeah if he’s torn thigns up those stats are out of date.
A good problem to have!
Todd Boss
30 Jun 23 at 1:29 pm