After months of thinking Dylan Crews was going 1-1 … a last minute shake-up in Pittsburgh’s camp led to them taking Paul Skenes and letting Crews drop to the Nats at 2nd overall.
We talked about the “why” of why this might happen:
- Pittsburgh wants a fast-to-the-majors arm
- Skenes would probably take a haircut off of the $9.7M slot value, giving them more money to chase HS prospects later on.
- Crews had been posturing about not wanting to go to Pittsburgh or wanting a huge bonus.
It doesn’t matter why. What matters is that the Nationals have found themselves with the 2023 Golden Spikes award winner, the 3rd time they’ve gotten to draft such a player. The first two times worked out pretty well (Strasburg and Harper).
We’ve talked Crews to death in the media; he’s a 5-tool guy, true CF, great hit tool, speed, shows power, etc. I’m happy the team didn’t do something clever and pass on him. I think I would have preferred Skenes if we had the choice, given our lack of pitching prospect depth and our abundance of OF prospects, but that can all work itself out later.
Later on in the evening, we took Yohandy Morales in the 2nd, out of U-Miami. Fantastic pick; a guy who had a ton of mid-1st round projection who we landed with the 40th overall pick. A great defensive 3B with a mature bat, he’s going to be a fast riser. Great pick, great bat.
So, yes we already have a top 3B prospect in Brady House. Again, you worry about these things being a problem only when they become a problem. Both were shortstops in high school before moving over due to size (Morales is 6’4″ 225, House is 6’4″ 215). Maybe they pivot to a corner OF spot, maybe someone pivots to 1B. If both these guys bash their way to the majors at the same time, maybe they platoon at 3B/DH. Maybe we flip one for a #2 starter.
I do realize the team has pitching needs, and i’m betting we’ll see a ton more arms drafted the rest of the way, but it seems to me the Nats stayed true to their draft board and grabbed BPA.
Can’t wait to see what happens from here…
agree with your BPA assessment, always the best play IMO. hopefully Crews get signed and acclimated in whatever level he’s assigned. he seems happy to be in the organization
FredMD
10 Jul 23 at 9:19 am
I agree with Law’s take: “It’s funny because the word all spring was that the Nats’ preference was to get Skenes at No. 2, but instead they have to settle for . . . the No. 1 player on my board, at least, if not theirs, in Crews. . . . I know this isn’t exactly how the Nationals hoped it would play out, but I think they got the best player.”
Like some others here, I had sort of developed the idea that Skenes was truly the generational player, but in some ways, the Nats are more in need of high-ceiling position players who are close to the majors. They certainly got one in Crews, and maybe two.
The strength of this draft is college position players, and the Nats played that strength. I was sort of hoping that Ty Floyd would be there at #40, though. The Reds hit the jackpot with Lowder and Floyd.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 9:50 am
The defining thing for the rest of the draft, and particularly for the top couple of Nat picks today, is how much overslot Crews wants. The majority of BPAs left right now are high schoolers, most of whom have dropped because of signability questions, so they’re not looking to take discounts. There’s some scuttlebutt about the Nats trying to work a deal with high-school lefty Cam Johnson, but who knows if they have any flexibility.
If the Nats still favor college pitchers who have dropped because of injury histories, huge Hunter Owen and Tanner Witt are still there. Considering Witt’s struggles returning from injury, there may be a good chance that he’s still there for the 4th-round-pick. I think Owen will go in the 3d.
The consensus best college position player still on the board is VA Tech OF Jack Hurley. The Nats are loaded with OF prospects, but if you truly believe that he’s the BPA, you take him. For organizational need, I’m intrigued by Tennessee shortstop Maui Ahuna. The Nats took two Vols last year in Lipscomb and Lawson so have connections to the program. Other college shortstops who could go in the top five rounds are Josh Rivera of FLA and Cole Foster of Auburn. (Seems to be an SS theme here.) Rivera is a senior so might be the type of discount signee the Nats are seeking. He had 19 homers for the Gators and significantly cut his K numbers this season. There seems to be some question whether he can stay at SS, though.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 10:03 am
An “SEC” theme with the shortstops.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 10:04 am
All in all, I’m slightly disappointed but feel somewhat vindicated (because I thought folks were under-appreciating the likelihood PIT would take Skenes). I’m disappointed because I was really excited by a Skenes-Gore-Cavalli-Gray rotation with the fifth starter and bullpen filled out by guys like Henry, Rutledge, etc. That is a rotation that can win a playoff series, if healthy and Skenes turns out to be who we think he is. Now, I think the Nats are probably going to have to spend some significant free agent money on the rotation. That’s not the worst thing in the world, of course, but there’s risk there (which we all know too well).
So far in the rebuild, the Nats have found some solid position players who are likely to contribute to a playoff-caliber MLB team, but no stars. Wood and House are potential stars in the minors, and now so is Crews. And we don’t have to worry every time Crews shakes his arm the way we inevitably would have with Skenes. It’s easy to dream on a Hassell-Crews-Thomas OF at some point next year and a Hassell-Crews-Wood OF the following year.
And, to be honest, a Skenes pick would have put the rotation way ahead of the position players in terms of being good enough to make the playoffs. If Skenes follows the Stras path, and Cavalli comes back solid, a Skenes-led Nats rotation could be playoff caliber as early as next year. It would take a lot of wishful thinking to see even a league average offense next year, much less a good one. So from this perspective, Crews seems to fit the Nats timeline a bit better, IMO.
Derek
10 Jul 23 at 11:14 am
I’ve forgotten which commentator said it (I was flipping between MLB and ESPN), but he said something to the effect that this was the only way Pittsburgh could get a pitcher of that level, as they’ve haven’t shown any inclination to sign them as free agents. That’s true. Of course the Nats seem to have no issue with such signings. (A Lucas Giolito reunion, perhaps?)
As much as I would have liked to have Skenes, and that rotation, if we’re being honest, the Nats are farther from where they need to be with position players. Even if Wood does prove to be a star, they needed another one or two. Crews seems like about as sure a thing as you can get. I still question whether he’ll have big HR power, but he’ll be a doubles machine. (Rendon only has one season with more than 25 homers, after all.)
The core future positional players with the big club right now are Ruiz, Garcia, and Abrams. All have had their ups and downs this season. All are still young. Abrams still seems like a question mark to me. Thomas and Meneses have done enough certainly to be considered a part of the transitional future, if they aren’t traded.
Beyond free agents, the Nats now also have enough prospects to think about a four-for-one Gio-type trade. They didn’t before.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 12:19 pm
Remember … yes we just drafted Morales (who plays 3B) and we have House (who plays 3B). Best man wins; the other guy either moves to another position or gets flipped for a starter.
Yes we just drafted Crews (and we have Woods, Hassell, Green … and Vaquero, and Lile, and De La Rosa, and White) … but only 3 of them will get to the majors and deliver. The rest? get flipped for starters.
Todd Boss
10 Jul 23 at 12:47 pm
FWIW, Longenhagen had Morales graded as the #13 overall player. Wow. Calls him an “incredible value” for the Nats.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 1:21 pm
Nats go for massive (6-6, 232) high school pitcher Travis Sykora in the 3d round. They must have a deal already in place for him? #34 for Longenhagen, #36 Law, #40 MLB.com, but way down at #88 for McDaniel, who doesn’t think he can stick as a starter. The other question mark is that he’s already 19. Overall, it looks like good value board-wise if they can sign him, but I don’t love high school pitchers in general.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 2:11 pm
I was with KW that this was likely a choice between Owen and Hurley. So of course they sign a HS RHP, Travis Sykora. These are three great value picks if they can sign all of them. And especially if they can sign them without drafting 7 college seniors the rest of the way.
Maybe they spent a lot of time on the phone last night working out a deal with one of the HS pitchers?
NG
10 Jul 23 at 2:12 pm
Owen, Witt, and Ahuna are all still available as of pick #95.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 2:25 pm
Well, with all three of Owen, Witt, and Ahuna, they take Andrew Pinckney, a 4 year senior from Alabama. Must be an underslot deal, maybe one of many to come for the first 3 rounds.
NG
10 Jul 23 at 2:35 pm
And here comes the cost savings in round 4: Andrew Pinckney, OF out of U of Alabama, #216 MLB.com, #211 McDaniel. He redshirted as a frosh so is a fourth-year junior (undrafted last year). He’s not a stiff by any means, though: .339/.442/.648, 18 HR, 12 doubles, 2d-team all-SEC. He went 3-for-3 with a homer off a fella named Skenes.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 2:41 pm
The Braves couldn’t be outdone by Sykora, so they just took a 6-8, 245 lb. HS pitcher out of Florida. LOL.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 2:58 pm
There’s my shortstop! Marcus Brown out of OK State, not in MLB.com or McDaniel top 300, so a potentially very cheap signee. Slashed .273/.360/.469 this season with 9 homers and 10 doubles.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 3:13 pm
Tanner Witt of U of Texas still on the board through 150 picks. An MLB legacy coming off a TJ sure sounds like a Rizzo pick. There must be either concerning medicals or a concerning asking price, or both. Was thought to be a 1st-round talent before injury.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 3:22 pm
6th round: Crews/Skenes LSU teammate Gavin Dugas, another senior who should sign for very little. Also not a stiff: .290/.464/.589, 17 homers, 12 doubles as a starter for the national champions. He had 19 homers last season.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 3:41 pm
as soon as you saw Travis Sykora’s name you had to expect signables to follow. given that they’ll add some additional prospects via trades this month’s additions have a chance to be considered a success. Crews alone goes a long way to that end
FredMD
10 Jul 23 at 3:46 pm
The low-money guys they’re drafting aren’t bad, at least on paper. Seventh round: Ryan Snell, catcher, Lamar, .317/.412/.654, 17 homers, 17 doubles, only struck out 30 times in 55 games.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 4:16 pm
I must say that I’m surprised that we’re through seven picks and the Nats have only taken one pitcher.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 4:22 pm
Here’s a pitcher in round 8, but like a $10K guy: Jared Simpson, relief pitcher, Iowa. 6.54 ERA this season, 1.50 WHIP, but 13.5 K/9.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 5:03 pm
Law on Sykora, who he had ranked #36 overall:
“Sykora is probably the hardest-throwing high school pitcher in the draft class, hitting 100 mph last summer and sitting 96-98 mph with some arm-side run, pairing it with a plus splitter that has hard tumble. He’s huge at 6-foot-6, 220 pounds, but has a super-short arm action where his arm is extremely late relative to his front leg landing, which might be why his slider has velocity but not much bite or tilt. He’s 19 already, which will hurt him in analytical models and means he’ll be draft-eligible in two years if he ends up at the University of Texas. He’s one for teams that value size and arm strength over delivery or breaking stuff.”
Longenhagen: “One can’t help but malaprop Sykora into “Sequoia” because Travis is the size of a tree at 6-foot-6 and 220 pounds. He overpowers high school hitters with a downhill, upper-90s fastball and promising fosh changeup, which sometimes has nasty glove-side finish that can make you mistake it for his less consistent slider. He is apt to work his fastball at the top of the zone and mix in his secondaries to induce weaker, early-count contact, since his heater doesn’t play as well in the middle and bottom of the zone. Sykora is already a giant and you just hope he can sustain his current level of arm strength in pro ball when faced with a starter’s workload. If he can, he has a mid-rotation shot.”
MLB.com:
Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 55 | Splitter: 60 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50
“Both physical and athletic, Sykora repeats his sound delivery well and pounded the strike zone last summer against top competition. Scouts praise his intelligence and work ethic, and there’s still projection remaining in his 6-foot-6 frame.”
KW
10 Jul 23 at 5:09 pm
9th round: Thomas Schultz, reliever from Vandy, 4.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 (so good control).
Yes, the Nats are going for very affordable guys so they can pay the first three picks.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 5:15 pm
Another interesting note about Pinckney — the game where he went 3 for 3 against Skenes is the infamous April 28th game against LSU where Alabama coach Brad Bohannon tipped off gamblers ahead of time that his top starter was hurt, which ultimately cost him his job.
Pinckney ended up going 5 for 5 with a double, homer, 3 runs scored and 3 RBI. So even though the gambling plan was basically DOA because it was so poorly planned, Pinckney almost singlehandedly blew it up on the baseball field too.
NG
10 Jul 23 at 6:27 pm
That’s a great story about Pinckney.
They got me another SS in round 10: Phillip Glasser, Indiana, .357/.444/.515, 7 homers, 19 doubles, only 30 K’s in 63 games. He looks like a better hitter than Marcus Brown, who they took five rounds earlier.
Nearly all the underslot position players they took hit well in college, which gives them a chance. The two college pitchers seem like real long shots.
KW
10 Jul 23 at 6:42 pm
Looking at the players still let on the MLB.com board. The only non-high schooler from their top 100 is Tanner Witt, who presumably will go back to school and try to improve his draft standing. (It’s not like his family needs the money.)
Assuming the ranked high schoolers still left aren’t going to sign, here are the top collegians:
76 Tanner Witt, RHP, Texas
115 Jared Dickey, OF, Tennessee
148 Jack Peyton, C, Louisville
150 Cam Clayton, SS, Washington
173 Lebarron Johnson, RHP, Texas
197 Khristian Curtis, RHP, Arizona State
211 Carson Montgomery, RHP, Florida State
220 Drew Conover, RHP, Rutgers
235 Joseph Gonzalez, RHP, Auburn
246 Christian Rodriguez, RHP, Cal State-Fullerton
248 Paulshawn Pasqualotto, RHP, Cal-Berkeley
250 Nigel Belgrave, RHP, Maryland
KW
10 Jul 23 at 7:08 pm
so in a draft considered one of the best in years, they could walk away with three of MLB.com top forty prospects. not too shabby
FredMD
10 Jul 23 at 7:39 pm
I do feel cautiously optimistic about this draft class.
1. Unlike, for example, the “Giolito or bust” draft of 2012, while there appear to be a lot of signability picks in the late rounds, those are in service of multiple legit high end players in the first 3 rounds. The Nats arguably drafted three first round talents here — it’s not clear they’ve ever done that before. 2011 is probably the closest (Rendon, Meyer, Goodwin), but they actually had 2 first round picks that year, so I don’t think that’s entirely comparable. Maybe 2016 (Kieboom, Dunning, and Luzardo)?
2. As KW noted, there does seem to be some strategy behind the signability picks — take guys who’ve succeeded at hitting in college — as opposed to previous years where many of them seemed like names drawn out of a hat.
NG
10 Jul 23 at 7:45 pm
New posted a review of top 10 with a slew of scouting reports where i could find them.
This looks to me like a 3-man draft.
Todd Boss
11 Jul 23 at 9:15 am