Happy Thanksgiving!
The second early publisher of prospect top 10s is Prospects361, written by Rich Wilson, with a definite fantasy focus. I believe he ranks deeper than 10, but you can only see 10 without a premium account.
Pre-2024 Prospect Lists and Analysis:
- Baseball America’s short list/top 10
- Prospects 361/Rich Wilson (this post)
Here’s his top 10 list for us.
| pe | Last Name | First Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crews | Dylan | OF (CF) |
| 2 | Wood | James | OF (Corner) |
| 3 | House | Brady | SS/3B |
| 4 | Vaquero | Cristian | OF (CF) |
| 5 | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) |
| 6 | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) |
| 7 | Morales | Yohandy | 3B |
| 8 | Green | Elijah | OF (CF) |
| 9 | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) |
| 10 | Sykora | Travis | RHP (Starter) |
Quick reaction to this top 10 list.
- Nothing really shocking here, despite Wilson’s fantasy tint. For the most part this is a defensible list.
- In the lead-up to the list, he does notice that a lot of our top prospects took steps back or struggled in 2023. And yes he’s right. Hassell didn’t seem right all year. Cavalli missed the entire season with TJ. Bennett GOT TJ. Green strikes out half the time he bats. Susana can’t find the plate. So yeah there’s some angst in the system.
- His top 3 are basically the same as anyone elses right now: Crews, Wood, House.
- Putting Vaquero 4th is ridiculous … and is one of the two really notable fantasy-tinged picks in this list. He’s doing analysis for dynasty leagues who are drafting 18 and 19yr olds, and in those leagues guys like Vaquero are getting snapped up.
- He’s dinged Green down to 8th, whereas most have him a bit higher. He has to figure out how to not strike out.
- 10th was Sykora, entirely on draft bonus amount and hype.
The highest players he doesn’t have ranked would include the likes of:
- Rutledge, who still maintains rookie status. I guess when you’re a 6th starter in the majors, you’re less valuable than an 18 yr old who hasn’t thrown a pitch in pro ball.
- Lile, who MLBpipeline is super-high on.
- Bennett, though to no surprise since he is missing all of 2024.
The Nat prospect who the alleged gurus are sleeping on most is Andrew Pinckney. If you ask me to bet on who from among all the Nat OF prospects will end up starting with the big club along with Wood and Crews, as things stand right now I’d bet on Pinckney. He’s 6-3, 215, with plus speed and plus power (18 homers at Bama in the spring, including one off Skenes). In 41 games as a pro, he hit .321, scored 39 runs, and ended the summer at AA. Following a similarly pushed promotion schedule, Morales hit .349 in 42 games. Both certainly would be ahead of Vaquero and Hassell for me right now.
Honestly, if real front offices rank Vaquero as highly as the gurus do, he’d be a trade chip for me right now. I’m not at all dismissing the possibility that he’ll become a very good player, but he’s also not on a Soto/Harper-like superstar trajectory.
It would be selling very low to trade Green or Hassell right now. All we can do with them is cross our figures and hope that they can figure things out. Hassell did finish his AFL fairly strongly.
KW
24 Nov 23 at 1:29 pm
Here’s a “wow” from the Immaculate Grid this morning: only 19 pitchers picked in the first round have ever won the Cy Young Award. That’s an astounding number considering that at least half the first round every year is usually pitchers, supposedly the best of the best. So good luck Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge, not to mention MacKenzie Gore. I think that Max is the only Nat to do it.
Only 30 first-round picks have won an MVP (Bryce), and only 41 have even been named Rookie of the Year (Bryce). Here’s looking at you, Dylan Crews and Brady House!
KW
25 Nov 23 at 10:19 am
Truth, KW. Baseball is hard. One of our most favoritist pastimes is savaging the Nats when a pick doesn’t pan out. Having reviewed the results of the first couple of rounds I am always struck by the fact that a lot of them, even in the top ten, never have a substantial impact at the big league level.
John C.
25 Nov 23 at 10:33 am
(To be clear, when I say “a lot of them” I mean across MLB)
John C.
25 Nov 23 at 10:34 am