Nationals Arm Race

"… the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same – pitching.” — Earl Weaver

2024 Day One Draft Reaction – Seaver King!?

34 comments

Here’s my quick take on Nats Day 1 picks (1st, 1st-comp, and 2nd rounders)

First: Important Draft Links

  • MLB Draft Tracker
  • List of all Slot values for 2024
  • The Nats Draft Tracker master XLS, which I’m building out for 2024 as we go. With the trade we just made, our bonus pool is 13,895,100, but with the 5% buffer we can go up to 14,589,855 on our first 10 picks and 11th-20th rounders who get more than $150k.

Also, Here’s all the main pundit Draft Ranks with Scouting Reports; here’s links to the leading pundits out there with their Draft Boards (not Mocks) which usually have click-through scouting reports.

I’ll use some of these links to show where each guy we pick landed on the various boards to indicate whether it was a reach or a steal.

1st Round, 10th Overall: Nats take Seaver King, a College Junior SS from Wake Forest.

Ranks by major shops: BA=17, ESPN=16, MLBpipeline=17, Law=17, Fangraphs=11. SportingNews=11. Others generally in the 17-19 range.

So, the Nats at #10 have Bryce Rainer AND Braden Montgomery on the board dropping to them after both being mocked as high as the top 5 all month, and they reach down past even where Yesevage was projecting to go to pick Seaver King, a D2 transfer to Wake who has been creeping up draft boards ever since he slashed .424/.479/.542 with wood on the Cape last year.

I’ll point out that Seaver King did not appear in a SINGLE MOCK draft in the top 10 that I can recall, nor was he ever associated with a Nats pick at #10. This is coming out of LF for sure. To me, this smells like an under-slot deal (slot value for 1-10 is $5.9M) so that the team, who now owns the #39 and #44, might be able to save $1.5M or so (the difference between 10th overall and 17th overall, which is probably where he was expecting to go) and throw it at one of their next two picks to make it look like a mid-1st rounder.

Back to King: he played CF, SS, 3B, and 2B in that order this year, has positional flexibility, can absolutely hit both with metal and with wood (Slash line at Wake Forest this year: .308/.377/.577), has some speed and some power. I bet the Nats like him b/c he can play a bunch of different positions.

What do I think? I would rather have taken Montgomery. Maybe they were spooked by the injury. I wasn’t really on Tibbs as much as Moore (who went a couple picks earlier), and Yesevage would have been a reach (he went 20th overall). So. Lets see who they pick in the next two rounds.

1st round Comp round, #39 overall: Caleb Lomavita, a College Junior C from Cal-Berkeley.

Ranks by major shops: BA=18, ESPN=24, MLBpipeline=33, Law=46, Fangraphs=43. SportingNews=35

Interesting range of ranks from the shops, especially BA at #18 and Law at 46 as extremes.

So, three picks before ours, MLB’s best available included Brody Becht and Tommy White, both of whom got mid-1st round buzz throughout the spring. In fact, the very first mocks we saw all had White going to Nats at #10 under the guise of “Mike Rizzo loves the famous guys.” Well, White had a crummy spring, which knocked him down to being available at #39, and Becht got popped one pick beforehand, so the Nats went with the Catcher Lomavita. We don’t have a ton of depth at the position and there’s definitely concerns about Kiebert Ruiz right now despite the contract we gave him (he’s slashing .224/.260/.333 this year). We say it over and over; you don’t draft for need, but here’s the Nationals Catching depth chart right now:

  • MLB: Ruiz & Adams, neither of whom can hit
  • AAA: Millas, Lindsley (a 10k senior sign), Gonzalez (an NDFA who spends most of his time on the Dev list).
  • AA: Pineda (already outrighted), Vega (boucning around like an org guy), Stubbs (2024 MLFA)
  • High-A: Romero (hitting .168 this year), Suggs (an NDFA hitting .202), Diaz (2024 BA: .116).
  • Low-A: Colomenares (.197), Farmer (22 NDFA hitting .186), Rombach (just promoted from FCL)
  • Rookie: three 18yr olds from the DR
  • DSL: three 17yr olds we signed in January

So, yeah, we need catching depth. Badly. The scouting reports aren’t great, he’s undersized and has some mechanical issues, but he’s definitely a college catcher and will stay there. Maybe we put him at Low-A to start, move Rombach up since nobody at Wilmington can hit, and see what happens.

2nd round #44 overall: Luke Dickerson, Prep SS from Morris Knolls HS (NJ).

Ranks by major shops: BA=56, ESPN=77, MLBpipeline=49, Law=59, Fangraphs 100+. SportingNews=36

It’s possible some bonus dollars will go to buy Dickerson out of his UVA commitment, but they probably don’t need THAT much. The slot value is $2.1M. The pundits said he was getting 1st round buzz, and he was certainly a helium prospect this year. 6′ shortstop who is offense over defense, may project more like a 2B or a CF, but has serious athleticism. Not only is he a top baseball prospect, but he also helped his HS team win the state Ice Hockey championship this year. Interesting sport combo.

An interesting pick; not sure who was exactly available at this point who might have made more sense. A slew of college arms went right after him. One thing that seems to stand out is his positional flexibility; he’s an athlete enough to move around the dirt, or play the OF with his speed.

Day 1: A solid college SS, a college C, and a prep SS. We’re a long way from drafting pitcher after pitcher.

Written by Todd Boss

July 14th, 2024 at 10:48 pm

Posted in Draft,Prospects

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34 Responses to '2024 Day One Draft Reaction – Seaver King!?'

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  1. Well the new draft team sure is making their marks. We’ll see if they’re really smarter than everyone else in the room.

    kevin r

    14 Jul 24 at 11:21 pm

  2. It’s hard to judge drafts immediately after they happen, right? But i’ve been super frustrated with Rizzo’s drafts for years now. It’s been more than a decade since he had a 2nd round pick work out. Now suddenly this new group has a 4th rounder in the MLB rotation (Irvin), a 5th rounder in the MLB rotatoin (Parker), a 7th rounder starting CF and earning Rookie of the year Votes (Young), an 18th rounder from 2022 in the AAA rotation (Lord), a 12th rounder in the AAA rotation (Alvarez), a 10th rounder on the brink of a middle infield callup (Baker), and a bunch of middle-round guys holding important reliever roles in AA and AAA (Ribalta, Willingham, Grissom, Sinclair, etc).

    Maybe not all of these are the new regime. Maybe you can criticize that htey blew the Green pick, or that House was too obvious. But man, Sykrora looks like the real deal from a prep high-bonus draft perspective. So… in Rizzo we trust.

    Todd Boss

    14 Jul 24 at 11:51 pm

  3. @KW – Thanks for the response earlier but I understand why teams honor their own deals – it’s a repeat game between teams and agents and you just can’t break your word without a very very good reason, or you’ll never do business again.

    But I don’t understand why other teams honor those deals.

    Here’s an example: Let’s say the O’s this year with the 22nd and 32nd pick decided to try to go overslot on their 1st rounder. They promise $5.5M to a kid and their agent tells every team after that he needs that number.

    The way it seems to work is that, if other teams aren’t willing to match the $5.5M, they pass and then the O’s pick him and he signs for the agreed overslot bonus.

    But why don’t the Blue Jays pick him at 20th, offer him slot ($4M) and tell the kid of sign or go to school?

    Once he’s drafted by the Blue Jays, how does “But the O’s would have given me $5.5M” play at all in the negotiations?

    SMS

    15 Jul 24 at 1:37 am

  4. Yeah, not the draft picks I was expecting… For one, the eschewing pitching approach of the last year or two continues after another scouting revamp.

    The Nats going with King at #10, while not a massive reach, was still a statement pick, of “we know better than conventional wisdom”, or at a minimum “we wish we could have traded this pick back 5 picks”.

    I know the mantra is to draft the best players available and not for positional need, but it certainly feels like these first 3 picks were driven almost exclusively by positional need, otherwise what argument is there to be made that King is a better player than Montgomery, for example?

    It’s the Dickerson pick that I’m the least enthused about. It’s not the Green failure that has me mostly worried. It’s the other half dozen HSers we’ve drafted over the past few seasons that are each struggling to hit above .200 and strike out below 30% in A ball that has me worried. I’m talking about White, Cox, Ochoa Leyva, Cooper and Peoples. Yes, Lile and House have bucked that trend, but if the equation is something like a 3 in 4 chance the guy never makes it out of A ball, then maybe it’s not the right risk-reward balance.

    But let’s see, some of the Nats’ best draft picks in recent years have come not in the first day, but in days 2 and 3.

    Will

    15 Jul 24 at 5:24 am

  5. Will — Same thought: this is Rizzo trying to outsmart everyone. Ask him how Sammy Infante and Brenner Cox are working out. Oh, they’re not even in most people’s top 30 for the organization? And Infante is at risk of release with the arrival of King and Cayden Wallace? Yeah, they don’t look so smart.

    If they wanted to overpay a high school shortstop, they could have just given the money straight to Rainer and avoided the machinations. Law fairly screamed that this wasn’t a year for slot saving for later players because the later players aren’t worth it.

    By himself, King is a fine player. He’s hit at every level, including Team USA and on the Cape with a wood bat. He also fills a middle-infield organizational need. But nearly everyone thought Montgomery was a top-5 talent in a talent-thin draft. They passed on Montgomery, Rainer, and Yesavage, who many mocked in the top 10.

    On a separate page, the Hunter Harvey deal looks brilliant. They got an advanced infield prospect in Cayden Wallace and one of the best catchers in the draft in Lomavita.

    King, Wallace, and Lomavita fill obvious needs, although all may have MLB ceilings no higher than as reserves. Dickerson seems like a wild shot in the dark. But as always, I hope he proves me wrong.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 7:13 am

  6. And, as Todd mentioned, they passed on Tommy White to take a guy with a ceiling of backup catcher. I know that White has his detractors, but even they would concede that if he clicks, he could post a top-5 WAR from this class.

    If White does click as the A’s move to Vegas, that’s going to be quite a show.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 7:24 am

  7. @SMS why don’t teams honor these deals? I think its pretty simple: if you draft a kid who doesn’t want to be drafted, it throws a huge wrench into your draft plans too. You can get draft pick compensation for i believe the first two rounds, but not the comp picks nor anything further down. So lets say a kid has an overslot deal at #3 with some team; another calls and says i’m picking you will you sign? They say nope and there’s just no way you can waste that draft pick.

    Top 2 rounds? happens less i think, though it still can happen especially if someone has like a $1M overslot deal. Teams just don’t want to waste the pick.

    Todd Boss

    15 Jul 24 at 8:19 am

  8. @KW: I think you’re underrating these players. There’s no way a guy ranked in the top 50 of a draft class projects as a backup catcher. If he was perfect, he’d be a top 10 pick, but every kid outside the top 10 has some limitation here or there.

    Todd Boss

    15 Jul 24 at 8:20 am

  9. Rizzo trying to outsmart everyone???

    do you really think he did not give the authority to draft who they wanted to Haas, Ciolek and Dunn?

    FredMD

    15 Jul 24 at 8:38 am

  10. Oh, they all have the potential to be solid everyday players. And when I watched the King highlights, I had to force myself not to think too much about Mookie. There are several pundits, including Law, who believe in King more than they do Christian Moore. And for where the Nats are right now, I thought a college bat made more sense than a high school dream pick. (The Pirates went down the rabbit hole that I thought the Nats might: a team close to contending takes a high schooler who won’t help for at least three or four years.)

    I’m glad they got Lomavita as well. Some think he might be the best-hitting catcher in the draft, and there’s good consensus that he can stay behind the plate. Ruiz is signed through 2030, and I still hope he can turn things around. They just need someone competent to split time with him.

    But, they might have still gotten Lomavita at #44, or could have had Jake Cozart if he was gone. If their draft was Montgomery, White, and Lomavita/Cozart, it would look a lot more impressive on paper than King, Lomavita, and Dickerson.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 8:57 am

  11. There’s an interesting “fallen star” name among the players remaining on the board: Josh Hartle, LHP from Wake, who would have been a top-15 pick out of high school in 2021 but is now #70 on the MLB.com board. He was really good as a college soph but lost his mojo this spring.

    This draft seems VERY thin on pitching. I assume the Nats will take a few arms today, but none on the board are anywhere close to sure things.

    There are quite a number of SEC hitters, which have given the Nats recent success with Young, Lipscomb, and Pinckney in particular.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 9:07 am

  12. Regarding the Harvey deal, I don’t remember if I’d commented on the trade market value of relievers here before, but I’m kind of surprised by everyone else’s surprise at the return for Harvey. For a few years now, the trade deadline market has shown how pitching is valued irrationally higher than hitters. For example, Jordan Hicks (a reliever with 3 months of control, worth 0.9 WAR at the deadline) returned a better package than Jeimer Candelario (worth 3.0 WAR at the deadline) last July. Similarly good-but-not-great relievers from Kendall Graveman and David Robertson returned similar packages. Harvey and Finnegan both fit into this tier, but with the added benefit of being under control for a whole extra season, which is why Harvey, despite his recent struggles, returned around $15m+ of value, which is why I’d hoped the Nats might be able to package them together to a team to return a back of the top 100 infield prospect. But I don’t dislike also spreading the risk around and getting a few top 300-ish guys instead. I think there’s a real possibility our bullpen could bring in as much talent as the draft this July.

    Will

    15 Jul 24 at 9:30 am

  13. Well, we did have years of pain and agony watching the Nats overpay for relievers at every trade deadline. They’re seen as THE essential commodity for contending teams.

    It will also be curious to see, if/when the Nats sell off their bullpen assets, if they’ll promote Adon, Rutledge, and Ward as the relievers that they already should have been.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 9:46 am

  14. Law’s take, really pretty positive:

    Washington Nationals: The Nats did well with their three picks, one just acquired on Saturday from the Royals for Hunter Harvey, landing Wake Forest shortstop/centerfielder Seaver King with their first pick (No. 10) and a high-upside high school infielder in Luke Dickerson with their third pick (No. 44). They used the new pick (No. 39) on Cal catcher Caleb Lomavita, fair value at that pick, although I can’t warm up to a guy who is as impatient as he is at the plate.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 10:17 am

  15. Law’s BPA list for Day 2:

    1. Peyton Stovall, 2B, Arkansas (ranked No. 34)
    2. Kevin Bazzell, C/3B, Texas Tech (No. 35)
    3. Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State (No. 49)
    4. D’Marion Terrell, OF, Thompson HS, AL (No. 52)
    5. Gage Miller, 3B, Alabama (No. 54)
    6. Carson Wiggins, RHP, Roland HS, OK (No. 55)
    7. Jared Jones, 1B, LSU (No. 57)
    8. Connor Gatwood, RHP, Baker HS, AL (No. 61)
    9. Dax Whitney, RHP, Blackfoot HS, ID (No. 63)
    10. Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern (No. 65)

    —

    Four of the six collegians are SEC hitters, and three of the four high schoolers are SEC commits. Jared Jones would fill a need for the Nats as a power 1B/DH. He’s lower on some boards and might still be available in the fourth or fifth round. The profile of Jordan reminds me of that of Pinckney, a toolsy SEC OF with some contact questions.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 10:24 am

  16. On Will’s point, this is from Ken Rosenthal in the Athletic’s baseball newsletter this morning:

    I can already hear the complaining from baseball executives who will try to add relievers before the July 30 trade deadline: Did you see what the Royals gave up for Hunter Harvey? They set the market too high. And now the asks for bullpen pieces are exorbitant. . . .

    In a seller’s market, the Nationals indeed could set a high price for Harvey. The Royals, in a heated race for an American League wild card, entered Sunday ranked next-to-last in the majors in strikeout rate. They needed the help.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 10:50 am

  17. From Fangraphs:

    I don’t think Washington is done wheeling and dealing with high profile players. First rounder Seaver King is likely under slot, and I don’t think Luke Dickerson is so far over that he’ll completely swallow the surplus created by King cutting a deal. There are three or four seven-figure high schoolers left on The Board and the Nats pick fifth today. Multiple high school pitchers were picked early in round two last year (including Travis Sykora) and I’d expect at least some of that to happen again. Caleb Lomavita is a compact, athletic catcher with a plus arm and good pull pop for his position; he might be most effective in a big league timeshare due to his stature.

    Derek

    15 Jul 24 at 10:58 am

  18. @Todd – I didn’t realize teams actually lose picks w/o agreements. I thought as long as the team offers 60% of slot or whatever their worst case is a year delay (which is obviously not a good outcome either, but is quite a bit less bad, especially if the next year’s draft is scouted as stronger)

    I guess it boils down to how plausible the threat is from the player. I have to imagine it’s a rare kid who actually would turn down $2M to go to school but accept $3M to go pro. But losing a day 1 pick would be such a disaster, I can see how teams could be very conservative around it.

    SMS

    15 Jul 24 at 11:05 am

  19. Derek, I had that same thought about another over-slot when I saw that William Schmidt was still on the board. I think he’s probably too highly rated for the Nats to convince, but yes, they may have enough to throw at another high schooler.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 11:19 am

  20. McDaniel’s Day 2 BPA list, which is very different from Law’s. There really isn’t much consensus about this draft at all:

    27. Dakota Jordan, CF, Mississippi State
    44. Joey Oakie, RHP, Ankeny Centennial (Iowa) HS
    50. Chase Harlan, 3B, Central Bucks East (Pennsylvania) HS
    52. James Nunnallee, RF, Lightridge (Virginia) HS
    53. Dax Whitney, RHP, Blackfoot (Idaho) HS
    54. Sawyer Farr, SS, Boswell (Texas) HS
    55. Johnny King, LHP, Naples (Florida) HS
    56. Cole Messina, C, South Carolina
    58. Ryan Prager, LHP, Texas A&M
    59. Kevin Bazzell, C, Texas Tech

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 11:36 am

  21. @Derek, definitely agree that the Nats aren’t done. Interestingly, King might have tipped his/the Nats’ hand a bit in his interview with the Post. He said he expected to be drafted between 12th and 24th, already putting his signing expectation ceiling slot at 12th ($500k less than 10th slot), but if they agreed to meet in the middle, i.e. 18th’s slot value, that would save them $1.4m. Dickerson’s slot value is already $2.12m, there’s no way he could demand even close to $3m. Honestly, given his scouting reports, he should be pretty pleased with full slot value at #44, but that would free up around a million for pick #79 (slot already $980k), which means we could have around $2m to spend there.

    Will

    15 Jul 24 at 12:44 pm

  22. If Dickerson isn’t getting significant over-slot then I will like the pick more. He’s definitely an interesting athlete, but I don’t like overpaying for a reach (Infante, Cox).

    There’s so little consensus about draft boards this year that it will be interesting to see how things play out over the next few years, and over the next few rounds today.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 1:17 pm

  23. Nats double down on catching at #79 with Kevin Bazzell from Texas Tech. Interesting. Law had him at #35 on his board, ahead of Lomavita. It’s certainly true that there is a desperate need for catching in the organization.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 2:09 pm

  24. Seven pitchers taken immediately after Bazzell, including six collegians and one potentially big HS over-slot. The already-thin pitching stock is diluting rapidly. Might as well just stick with hitters.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 2:16 pm

  25. Interesting note from RJ Anderson in the CBS Sports draft recap: he said that scouts from multiple teams had told him that Montgomery was out of their top 10 because of his contact issues even before he injured his ankle. If the Nats were one of those teams, and they didn’t want to take a high schooler, it’s actually possible that King was at the top of their board, if they had him ahead of Tibbs and Cam Smith.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 2:31 pm

  26. #108 — Jackson Kent, a large lefty from U of Arizona:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=kent–001jac

    His numbers aren’t great, but few of the pitchers this year seem to have great numbers. Big guy with low mileage on his arm. He was taken a round earlier than projected so also could provide some slot savings. But for whom?

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 2:36 pm

  27. #141 — Randal Diaz, SS, Indiana State:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=diaz–002ran

    Very solid numbers at the plate. They’ve now drafted three infielders plus added Cayden Wallace. They’re very obviously not satisfied with the INF crop in the system.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 3:06 pm

  28. #170 — Davian Garcia, RHP, FLA Gulf Coast

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=garcia020dav

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 3:34 pm

  29. Robert Cranz, RHP, Oklahoma State:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cranz-000rob

    A reliever with outstanding numbers and good control. Tag this one as someone who could move up quickly.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 4:12 pm

  30. 8th round – Sam Petersen – OF – Iowa

    Getting Pinckney vibes from him. He was also rated as the #205 prospect by MLB.com

    Will

    15 Jul 24 at 4:46 pm

  31. Petersen: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=peters006sam

    Seems to be a speed-over-power guy. Does a good job at getting on base.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 5:00 pm

  32. 9th round — Jackson Ross, 3B the Rebel God of Walks from Ole Miss, already 24 years old:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ross–005jac

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 5:04 pm

  33. 10th — Luke Johnson, RHP, UMBC:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=johnso007luk

    Not much to write home about in his stats. Would seem to be a $10K signee as a senior.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 5:28 pm

  34. Here’s the list thus far:

    https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/2024/all/team/nationals

    One thing that jumps out is the size of the players, or lack thereof (relatively speaking). The Kris Kline days of “damn, he fills out a uniform” seem to be over.

    KW

    15 Jul 24 at 5:46 pm

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