Nationals Arm Race

The Nationals are moving on to a new short-A facility for 2011 (and by all accounts the move is welcomed, as Vermont’s stadium was reportedly among the oldest in the country still in use).  So for 2011 we’ll be referring to “Auburn” instead of “Vermont.”

Here’s how the Vermont pitching staff ended up the 2010 season:

Rotation: Jenkins 22, Hansen 21, Swynenberg 21, Jordan 21, McKenzie 21/Bates 22
(rotation order: Jenkins, Jordan, Swynenberg, Hansen, McKenzie/Bates)
bullpen: Bates, Barrett, Cahill, Crane, Eusebio, Gibson, NHerrera, Holland, Selik, Zellers, Demmin
spot starts: Bates 22, McKenzie 21
promotions: Graham, Hicks, McCatty, Ott
up-and-back:
demotions:
dl: Garrett
cut/retired:

Short A teams generally exist to be the first professional destination of newly drafted college juniors and seniors.  The draft is in the beginning of June, and the short-A season usually starts around the 19th of the month, giving teams a couple weeks to draft, sign, and logistically ship its college players out.  In fact, no less than 10 of the pitchers we drafted in 2010 were assigned to the Vermont squad.

Unfortunately, very few of these pitchers really impressed in 2010.  Of the 13 guys who had at least one start in short-A, only four of them had an ERA under 4.  Hicks (who had one start and moved up to low-A), Mattheus (in a rehab stint), Demmin (who got a spot start but was sparkling in a relief mode), and Ott (who pitched for 3 levels for the team in 2010 after signing as an undrafted free agent).  Lets talk about what may happen to the rest of these guys:

• Chad Jenkins 22yr old lefty 2009 17th round pick out of Juco, posted a 4.67 era but was wild, walking 34 guys in 54 innings.  His lefty status saves him.  2011 Outlook: May make the low-A rotation but will be on a short leash.
• Bobby Hansen 21yr old lefty 2008 18th round pick out of high school, now entering his 3rd pro year.  You don’t normally see high schoolers sign when drafted that late.  He’s a big guy (6’5″ 220) and he projects well, but has yet to really throw impressive numbers in GCL or short-A.  2011 Outlook: probably starts in short-A again after an extended spring.  Could get a look in the low-A rotation.
• Matt Swynenberg 21yr old righty 2009 28th round juco pick who isn’t really impressing anyone with his ERA or his low K/9 rates.  2011 outlook: seems bound for the Hagerstown bullpen.
• Taylor Jordan 21yr old 9th round pick in 2009 out of juco.  Similar numbers and outlook to Swynenberg.  Slightly more valuable to the team (9th round versus 28th).  2011 Outlook: may get one more shot to stick in the short-A rotation.  Otherwise bound for the bullpen.
• Christopher McKenzie 21yr old 13th round 2010 pick out of juco; his 2010 numbers were awful.  He posted nearly a 2.00 whip and nearly a 9.00 era.  2011 outlook: hard to see him anywhere but a bullpen somewhere.  Will need to show his value or he’ll get released.
• Colin Bates 22yr old righty 2010 23rd round pick out of UNC.  5.40 era but showed great swing and miss and good control (45/8 k/bb in 48 innings).  2011 Outlook: Because of his K rate I could see him getting another look in 2011 as a starter somewhere in the system.  Perhaps Hagerstown, perhaps again in Short-A depending on who we draft.

For the most part its rather difficult to predict who is going to be in the 2011 Short-A rotation until we reach the draft; it will be part 2011 draftees and part high school/Juco guys moving up from the GCL.  As we will see in the last installment, the GCL rotation wasn’t much better than Vermonts in 2010, but there will be a couple names that move up.