Fister shows Tim Hudson what *he* has between his legs. Photo via wp.com
It’s only fair to discuss, since we just saw Matt Williams pull another starter in the midst of a shutout and sitting right at 100 pitches. That’s where Doug Fister stood after completing 7 innings last night before giving way to the conventional 1-2 punch of Clippard-Storen to finish off the Giants in Game 3.
With a 3 run lead and the top of the order due up in the 8th inning, the move to Clippard was a bit less arguable. Fister was on a shutout, but wasn’t half as dominant as Jordan Zimmermann was the previous night. Fister had given up 7 base runners in 7 innings: Zimmermann only 4 in 8 2/3rds. It may smell like hindsight-is-20/20, but I thought this was a good managerial move.
Meanwhile, even if the hits off of Storen were mostly weak (going back to last night too; Posey’s single was on a good outside pitch that he nubbed into center and Sandoval sliced a ball the other way, landing it three feet fair, usually a sign of luck and not malice), are you concerned about going back to him with the game on the line?
Tonight, the Giants get our sole lefty Gio Gonzalez, who didn’t face the Giants this year. In his sole start against SF last year, he gave up 2 in 7 and took the loss. The Giants as a team possess a .258/.318/.390 slash line good for a wRC+ of 104 against lefties on the year, slightly better than how they fare against righties. So we may brace ourselves for a bit more offense than we’ve see so far. Meanwhile, the Nats get Ryan Vogelsong, who had just a 87 ERA+ for the season and who got absolutely blitzed in the two games he faced the Nats this year (2 starts, 11 1/3 innings, 13 hits and 9 runs).
Smells like a high-scoring, get into the bullpen early kind of game. Do you like the Nats’ chances?
If we make it to game 5, do you dare to skip Strasburg and go with Zimmermann (who, by the way, would have his normal 4 full days of rest by the time the deciding game rolled around on thurs 10/9/14).
Interesting that the Giants for the season have a slightly higher wRC+ against LHP instead of RHP, because the perception is that their record this season against LHP is not good. And while Posey and Pence are both RH, their lineup is really tilted LH – Belt, Crawford, Ishikawa, Panik, and Blanco are all LH, and Sandoval might as well be with his splits. They may start Perez or Hicks to get RH batters in the game – but Perez and Hicks simply aren’t very good hitters – Perez actually has a reverse platoon split (albeit in SSS). Of course, baseball being baseball, they’ll now get six hits between them.
This is a game where the Giants’ not having Morse may make a difference.
John C.
7 Oct 14 at 9:43 am
I was wondering the same: perhaps the slightly better record versus righties comes down entirely to their 3 biggest hitters all hitting lefties better by virtue of being righty batters (Morse, Posey) or switch hitters hitting from their natural side (Sandoval).
I’d look up splits for all three guys but have a meeting in like 10 minutes…
Todd Boss
7 Oct 14 at 9:49 am
BTW, I like the plan to have Strasburg in the bullpen as the long guy for today – just in case. The “Johnny Wholestaff” pitching approach so that if Gio wobbles even a little bit you bring in Strasburg. This not only give you one helluva security blanket, it gives Bochy the choice of leaving his RH hitters in or burning through his bench early.
Hopefully, of course, Gio is Good Gio and we go to Game Five. If they go Game Five I DO start Strasburg. It may not be the correct thing to do on paper (although Strasburg was pretty good in Game One, and has been awesome the last few weeks), but you don’t want to have the team’s momentum from two straight road wins (not a prediction, of course; it’s the only way we get to Game Five) disrupted by having to deal with the sh!tstorm that would ensue. The difference in pitching simply isn’t great enough to make that worth it.
John C.
7 Oct 14 at 9:50 am
Morse hits everybody; his OBP is actually better against RHP but his SLG is higher against LHP enough to give him a slight OPS platoon tilt (.827/.803 L/R).
Sandoval has been terrible against LHP this season (.563 OPS – not a typo); this is an exaggerated, but not extreme version of a consistent career split.
Posey is great against everyone – slightly better against LHP (.875) but still really good against RHP (.844).
Pence actually has a very slight reverse platoon split (.770/.779 OPS vs. L/R). Interestingly, his power numbers against RHP are much better (.456 SLG vs. RHP, .415 vs. LHP).
I haven’t looked at wRC+ or other advanced stats, this is just a quick basic check.
John C.
7 Oct 14 at 10:03 am
I was thinking about that (who covers for Gio if he slips) and wondered if it shouldn’t be Roark. Roark only threw 2 innings the other night. I havn’t reviewed all the nats news for the day though so i missed that announcement.
But consider this scenario; Gio falters, Stras comes in in relief, Nats survive and then are “forced” to throw Zimmermann in game 5. I’d take that scenario.
Todd Boss
7 Oct 14 at 11:19 am
The Dodgers are starting Kershaw on three days’ rest. (Of course if Haren is your other option, Kershaw on no rest might be better!) Anyway, I’m completely good with the thought of Stras coming in, not holding back, throwing 100 mph. If you keep your best weapons until Thursday, you may not make it to Thursday.
If Gio faulters very early, my first call would probably be Roark, if you need six or seven innings. But by the third or fourth, Stras would be my guy. You don’t lose this series with Blevins or Soriano on the mound with Stras still in reserve. You just don’t.
And yes, it might be an easier decision on Thursday if Stras has already pitched. But we’re NOT talking about Thursday! I’d pitch Stras and JZim both today if that’s what it takes. We certainly know what JZim can do in a game 4 relief appearance.
KW
7 Oct 14 at 1:05 pm
I was ok with taking out Fister. He did well but didn’t look as in command as JZ.
Has Stras ever pitched on short rest? I’d bet no, even in college; just wondering if he will be effective on short rest. I assume that he threw his regular bullpen the other day, too. I’d pull out all stops to win the game, including using Stras, but can you imagine the media BS if he throws today (they shut him down in 2012 to protect his arm, now they use him on short rest. Guess they realize thatthey were wrong, and aren’t worried about preserving him any more….)
I wonder if MW will say beforehand if he will be available? Might be a nice psychological nugget to drop during the pregame.
Wally
7 Oct 14 at 1:41 pm
Kershaw on 3 days rest == disaster. But maybe as KW says, better than Haren.
Todd Boss
7 Oct 14 at 2:44 pm
Upon further reflection, I’ve decided that I would go with Roark as the first long guy out of the bullpen rather than Strasburg. Strasburg is slightly better as a starter (by most, though not all, metrics) and certainly has better “stuff.” But he has never pitched out of the bullpen – at least not as a professional. The fact that he would be pitching out of his normal routine and comfort zone tips the scale for me to Roark. But certainly I’d have Strasburg available for emergencies; it’s an “all hands on deck” situation tonight.
John C.
7 Oct 14 at 2:49 pm
JohnC: agree. Roark has ample experience with the swingman role and would be my choice to go in that role too. Read elsewhere that Strasburg has some huge long warm-up routine that makes his going out of the bullpen on a moment’s notice very difficult.
Todd Boss
7 Oct 14 at 3:50 pm
Kind of nauseating watching this offense. As things stand, I am sure there’ll be a lot of ‘Gio melted down again’ talk, but this offense looks to be completely capitulating.
Hopefully they turn it around and people can laugh at me tomorrow, but I don’t know how much more of it I can watch.
Wally
7 Oct 14 at 10:16 pm
Thank god for Harper, but where the bleep is Strasburg? Gotta say, leaving in Thornton to face Posey seems questionable, now Barrett for a pence and we are out of lefties, so Panda bats LH.
Maybe this works out, but not how I’d do it. And with Twitter blowing up that Zim goes game 5, I repeat : where is Stras?
Wally
7 Oct 14 at 11:39 pm
Ok, I’ll stop now but Williams is going to get creamed for this, and hard to say it isn’t warrnted. I feel bad for Barrett but Williams should never have put him in this spot, and sure as heck shouldn’t have left him after Posey.
I think it is the 8th inning crap why Clip wasn’t in, and I look forward to the explanation about Strasburg.
Wally
7 Oct 14 at 11:51 pm
For those of you who are younger, this is exactly what it felt like every year to be an Expos fan.
The Montreal Torment.
What a FAIL. I guess the point made earlier that the postseason performance will dictate the offseason feels about right. It will be a busy one.
forensicane
8 Oct 14 at 12:28 am
New post. Not a glowing review of william’s decisions nor the Nats offense.
Todd Boss
8 Oct 14 at 8:53 am