Hacopain’s TAMU profile pick is … jacked. Photo via MLB network
So, one of the challenges of having a draft on a Saturday is, it’s awfully hard to find time to do a full comprehensive reaction in a timely manner. So, this will be somewhat brief, but wanted to get a conversation out there real quick.
In this year’s first round, the Nats at #11 take Chris Hacopian, 2B from TAMU. He’s a DC area native; born in Gaithersburg, grew up in Potomac, went to Churchill, and spent his first two college seasons locally at Maryland (click here for his PG profile). He was at UMD with his older brother, and upon his graduation Hacopian entered the transfer portal and went to TAMU. Hacopian was ready for better competition than what UMD gave him; he destroyed big 10 pitching his sophomore year. He wasn’t awful in the Cape Cod league after his sophomore year (he destroyed the NECL after his freshman year).
His junior season at TAMU he slashed .319/.405/.578 with more walks than Ks and some power (11 homers). He played 3B and SS for Maryland, and initially was set to play SS for Tamu as well, but ended up at 2B instead thanks to some limitations in his arm strength and lateral motion. I think he’s profiling as a 2B/LF type in the pros. His leading tool is his Hit tool, where he was one of the best pure hitters in the draft and has a 60 grade from MLBpipeline.com. They give him a current 50 power grade, but something tells me this guy can improve on that as well. I think he’s a pro hitter who won’t chase, hits the ball hard, can power it up when he wants to, and who should move through the ranks quickly. He had some injury issues this year, and by most accounts is a stiff, awkward athleticism guy who may struggle to stick even at 2B.
Hacopian was mocked to the Nats pretty frequently in the end, with the major pundits all over the pick. The way the 1st round worked out, if the Nats were after a college hitter, then they got the one that made the most sense; Burress, Gracia, and Bell all went just before Hacopian, and the next three picks were all HS guys (Gringlinger, Condon, Lombard). They passed on the toolsy Lebron, as well as Ace Reese, who went 24th and was clearly not in the near-top10 level. They also passed on all the prep projects, which is interesting and indicative of what this new front office is thinking after last year’s prep-heavy draft.
My judgement: the way the draft worked out, he was the “right” pick if the target was a College bat, with all the other candidates going before him. He could be a fast mover, maybe in the majors by end of 2027.
Roch Cholowsky may not be the consensus 1-1 pick any more. Photo via BA
I published the “way too early” Phase 1 Mock draft post in April, covering all the very early mocks plus those that hadn’t really taken into account a big chunk of the spring season. Then, I published Phase 2 mock draft review on 6/8/26, with a deeper dive into analysis and some macro draft thoughts. That Phase 2 post ended up being rather lengthy; we’re still technically in that “weeks leading up to the draft” portion of the Mock Draft season, without a ton of movement. However, by the time you read this HS is done, College is done, and top prospects are sitting at home fielding phone calls from interested teams (1st rounders aren’t likely to go spend a couple weeks playing summer wood bat, but lesser players may in order to get some last minute impress-the-scouts views).
Since the mocks continue to roll in, here’s another post. This time, I’m separating out the “Draft Class Ranks” from the “Mock Drafts” since they have different aims. I’ve captured these draft boards mostly so that I can reference them in my 2026 draft class post, to kind of show where players were ranked that we ended up picking.
I’ll just be adding all the “final” mocks to this post since the draft starts two days after I posted.
Here’s the mocks, starting with those released right after my last post
The Athletic/Keith Law Mock 2.0 6/10/26: Lackey, Bell, Cholowsky, Emerson, Flora. This is a crazy departure from basically every other mock we’ve seen in the cycle. Nats at #11 are on Chris Hacopian, the TAMU 2B with ties to the DC area (Churchhill HS then two years at Maryland), though he also mentions Jared Grindlinger as a name that the Nats are tied to at this pick. In Law’s mock, other names we’d like to see like Burress are gone.
CBSSports/Mike Axisa 6/12/26 mock: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Pretty standard. Nats at #11 on Grindlinger, saying that the Nats were heavily scouting his last few HS games.
MLBPipeline/Jonathan Mayo One-month away Mock 6/12/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. No real change for Mayo over the last few mocks for the top 5. Nats at #11 he now has Justin Lebron, the very tooled up Alabama SS who has been all over the map this draft season, from an early top 5 pick to late 1st round. In this scenario, both Burress, and Hacopian are gone, as is Bell (who Law has going super early), the Nats leave Grindlinger alone, and pass on college guys like Curiel, Flukey, and Reese.
Baseball America Staff Draft 6/15/26: Lackey, Cholowsky, Emerson, Booth, Curiel. Nats “GM” at #11 got Ryder Helfrick, C from Arkansas. The guys just after the Helfrick pick: Gringlinger, Hacopian, Gracia, Reese, and Lebron… basically 5 guys who I think are better picks than Helfrick. BA warns that this is not a “mock draft” but instead what their staff picking at those spots would do, but Curiel in the top 5 seems crazy.
ESPN/Kiley McDaniel Who they should pick Mock 6/18/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard. So, the classic top 5 we’ve been seeing for months. McDaniel says the top 3 are a tier, then the next two, then 6 and up. He’s got the Nats at #11 on Liam Peterson, the RHP friday starter from Florida. First time i’ve seen anyone project Peterson to the Nats, who would be leaving Flukey, Gringlinger, and Curiel on the table with this pick. McDaniel points out that the Boston-alum heavy front office was “good at identifying pitching it could optimize” and Peterson could slot in. I have to tell you, I don’t hate getting a top college pitcher at this point in the Nats farm system development … which is super SS heavy.
MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Mock on 6/18/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Lombard, Booth. First guy that I can think of that inserts Booth into the top 5 (he has Flora 6th). He has Nats on Hacopian, though notes that the industry knows that the team is “in” on Gringlinger. This mock has the two-way prep star falling to #19.
MLBPipeline Callis & Mayo tag team a Mock 6/26/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Lombard, Flora. Pretty standard. Nats at #11 they have Kentucky SS Tyler Bell, who is picked over the likes of Gringlinger, Hacopian, Reese, and Lebron in this mock.
CBSSports/Mike Axisa 6/26/26 mock: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Lombard, Bell; from his last mock he moves up Lackey a spot, and puts Bell at #5 after a strong CWS finish. He also describes Bell as an underslot guy at this position, which seems fair given that he’s got a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder that he’s played with all year that will require immediate surgery . Nats at #11 still on Gringlinger, saying the Nats would let him be a 2-way player to start his pro career.
BA Mock 5.0 post CWS and Combine 6/29/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Standard top 5, though he says Cholowsky isn’t certain 1-1 anymore, and that Pittsburgh at 5 could do an underslot deal instead of picking the obvious Flora. Nats at #11 on Ace Reese, the power-hitting 3B from Mississippi State. He recognizes the industry all says Gringlinger, but BA says the Nats are moving more towards college bats now. Grindlinger falls to #20 as a result.
Prep Baseball Report Staff Mock (via D1baseball) 7/2/26: Lackey, Emerson, Cholowsky, Flora, Lombard. Sorry, but this just seems out of touch with reality. There’s zero chance Tampa passes on Cholowsky if he somehow doesn’t go 1-1, and there’s little chance the Giants pass on Lombard. There’s a reason these mock drafts look similar; its because the pundits have relationships with GMs and know who they’ve been sending cross checkers out to see. They also put a guy at #6 who I’ve literally never heard of. Nats at #11 take prep lefty Gio Rojas, leaving a slew of top 10 names on the board.
MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo Mock 7/2/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Booth; Booth jumps Flora in this mock. Nats at #11 get Reese. They leave Curiel, Bell, Hacopian, Lebron, and Gringlinger on the board to take Reese, which seems unlikely.
Keith Law’s Mock 3.0 7/6/26: Emerson, Lackey, Cholowsky, Lombard, Flora. Law’s research now shows CWS at 1-1 have Cholowsky “a distant third” for the pick, At #11 he has the nats taking Hacopian, as he did a month ago, saying that the Nats staff loves Grindlinger but is concerned about the amount of dev time needed for a 2-way 17 yr old.
Not a mock, but Kiley McDaniel posted the “one big question” each team faces with its 1st round pick on 7/6/26. The Nat’s conversation talks about how recent Boston draft proclivities at the top may show up in the Nats draft this year.
Baseball America Staff Draft v4.0 7/6/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Flora, Booth. Nats at #11 got Reese.
Prospects1500 Mock Draft 7/7/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Booth. At #11 they mock Carson Bolemon, a prep LHP from Southside Christian (HS) in South Carolina to the team. This seems crazy; he’s ranked in the 20s and has not once appeared in any mock draft conversation for the team.
ProspectsLive team did a podcast/video mock 7/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. Nats at #11 they go with Grindlinger.
Baseball Prospect Journal Staff Mock Draft 7/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard. nats at #11 get Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah (Ga.) HS, another name that basically nobody is mentioning to the Nats in particular, or this high. At least the boards have him reasonably within the realm of the #11 range.
Fangraphs/Longenhagen Mock v1.0 7/8/26: Emerson, Lackey, Cholowsky, Flora, Booth. Like other major pundits, he’s reading the tea leaves and seeing that Cholowsky may be slipping and that Booth has taken over Lombard’s spot int he top 5. In this draft, Drew Burress drops to the Nats at #11, and if this happens I’d think the team would be ecstatic.
Final Mocks from Pundits
Baseball America Mock 6.0 final mock 7/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Booth, Flora. We’re seeing Lombard with some late slippage, and Booth seems to be the name now stepping into the top 5. As with their previous mock, they have Nats on Reese. Gringlinger drops to #19.
ESPN/McDaniel Final Mock Draft 7/10/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Booth, Burress. Wow, first time we’ve seen Drew Burress in the top 5; just a day before Longenhagen had him dropping to us at #11. In this mock, Nats at #11 get Derek Curiel, the famous hitter from LSU. I’d be a-ok with this scenario.
The Athletic/Keith Law’s Final Mock 7/10/26: Emerson, Lackey, Cholowsky, Lombard, Flora. Nats get Hacopian.
Fangraphs/Longenhagen Final Mock 7/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. Nats get Bell.
MLBPipeline/Jonathan Mayo’s Final Mock 7/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. Nats get Lebron
MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Final Mock 7/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Curiel. Nats get Hacopian
CBSSports/Mike Axisa Final Mock 7/10/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Booth. nats get Gracia.
Baseball Prospect Journal/Logan Quinton Final Mock: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Booth, Flora. Nats get Condon (BPJ is the only shop that is on Condon here)
The draft runs from July 11 to 13th this year, so we’re just a few days away.
My predictions right now?
Top 5: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey (in some order), then Booth, Flora.
Nats at #11: It’s looking like a college bat: whoever is left from Reese, Curiel, Burress, Hacopian.
Actual Draft Results post draft:
Top 5 went Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Curiel. Nats get Hacopian.
Jim Callis nailed it perfectly; only guy to have Curiel in top 5, he had the top 5 in order, and he got Nats pick right. Only Keith Law besides Callis got Nats/Hacopian.
Sime keeps mowing them down in High-A. Photo via BA
Since we’ve been talking about Baseball America ranks this week … and since BA just named the Nats overall system 4th best in the sport, lets see how they’re ranking our prospects in this Mid July update.
Baseball America does the best job of reshuffling prospect lists during the season, and I’m here for it. They did a mid May update that we covered here, and now we get a July 1 update just before the draft (where we’ll presumably add in at least a few more top 30 system prospects).
For now, this is a great way to gauge these players’ 2026 seasons… in some cases. After a point (as we’ll see) BA just kind of gave up and cut-n-pasted from the previous ranking.
Here’s their current top 30, with ranks pulled in from 2 months ago and from January to show evolution in 2026:
7/1/2026
5/18/2026
1/7/2026
First Name
Last Name
Position
1
1
1
Eli
Willits
SS
2
4
7
Seaver
King
SS
3
2
2
Jarlin
Susana
RHP (Starter)
4
5
Pre-Acqu
Devin
Fitz-Gerald
SS
5
3
21
Ronny
Cruz
SS
6
7
5
Travis
Sykora
RHP (Starter)
7
6
4
Luis
Perales
RHP (Starter)
8
8
Pre-Acqu
Gavin
Fein
SS
9
9
19
Miguel
Sime Jr.
RHP (Starter)
11
20
15
Jackson
Kent
LHP (Starter)
12
11
13
Ethan
Petry
1B/OF (Corner)
13
15
11
Landon
Harmon
RHP (Starter)
14
12
6
Alex
Clemmey
LHP (Starter)
15
10
3
Harry
Ford
C
16
22
16
Yohandy
Morales
3B
17
17
12
Sam
Peterson
OF (CF)
18
28
30+
Cayden
Wallace
2B/3B
19
14
9
Coy
James
SS
19
13
Pre-Acqu
Yeremy
Cabrera
OF (corner)
20
16
8
Luke
Dickerson
SS/CF
21
18
Pre-Acqu
Alejandro
Rosario
RHP
22
21
25
Riley
Cornelio
RHP (Starter)
23
23
10
Angel
Feliz
SS/3B
24
24
18
Caleb
Lomavita
C
25
25
Pre-Acqu
Samil
Serrano
OF (Corner)
26
26
20
Jorgelys
Mota
SS
27
27
24
Yoel
Tejeda Jr.
RHP (Starter)
28
19
17
Marconi
German
SS
29
30
14
Andrew
Pinckney
OF (Corner)
30
30+
30+
De la Cruz
Marlon
RHP (Starter)
Here’s some thoughts going down the list.
Having King now ascended to #2 in the system seems appropriate, even with his June swoon. Too bad we have the NL starting All Star short stop blocking his path to the majors. A good problem to have. His dip in performance has slowed the calls for him to get promoted.
Honestly, I don’t understand why they have Susana so high; he’s got an unspecified injury with no timeframe for return and has been doing “throwing programs” for months. I don’t think anyone thought his injury would cost him an entire season, but it’s leaning that way.
Ronny Cruz’s trajectory has dipped slightly, but he’s still top 5 after his torrid 2026 start.
They’re holding firm on Gavin Fein, and I hope he pays off. Moving him off SS lowers his value, and i’m surprised he’s still in the top 10.
Based on what you’ve seen in 2026, would you have Luis Perales at #7? I wouldn’t. Raise your hand if you want Jake Bennett back.
I like the recognition that Jackson Kent is now nearly a top 10 prospect, flourishing in AAA.
Clemmey taking a dive, as we’ve discussed a ton, going from #6 in January to #14 now. Honestly, that seems fair given what he’s struggled to do since his AA promotion.
What the heck is going on with Harry Ford? #3 in January, now #15.
Great to see Cayden Wallace showing up; he was just promoted to AAA where, I guess, he’ll play short stop? I mean, House is the 3B, Glasser has played the entire season at 2B. Maybe Glasser (listed as a SS) will move over and Wallace plays 2B. I can’t imagine the team will sit one of them on the regular so that Lipscomb (the only true SS on the AAA roster) can play at this point.
Both Coy James and Luke Dickerson were top 10, now nearly out of the top 20. Both are young, and have some time, but not a good pro career start really for either.
Lomavita’s excellent June apparently too late for him to get any change from the last ranking; he sits at #24 still.
Marlon De La Cruz gets the last spot, pushing out Davian Garcia (the only player ranked 6 weeks ago not listed). Fun fact; this is the first time he’s been ranked by any shop for this team, ever. He’s a 2024 IFA who signed for so little that they didn’t bother to register it, and now he’s in the LowA rotation.
Willits continues his torrid trajectory towards the majors. Photo via Federal Baseball
Here’s a monthly check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system. Stats are for just June 2026 unless otherwise noted.
(Note: I wrote this before the July 4th holiday, with its slew of moves/DFAs/promotions, so I know i’m missing some details).
I’ll be using my own personal top 20 to drive the rankings, the ones I posted right after the season started and which are a bit outdated. If I was to re-rank the top 10 right now versus what’s below, i’d probably go Willits, King, Fitz-Gerald, Sykora, Susana, Cruz, Kent, Petry, Sime, and then maybe a wild card like Morales or Lomavita.
All the stats links I use are at my Nats Links page, which I visit every day for various reasons. I won’t repeat all the stats links and transactions pages and what not; just go to the Links page.
Eli Willits SS, High-A: Slashed .246/.418/.590 for an OPS north of 1.000 and the continued streaking up prospect boards (he’s now #3 on MLBPipeline’s overall minor league list). Reminder: he’s 18, doesn’t turn 19 until December. Also named to the Futures game roster along with Sime. Temperature: red hot, POTY candidate, another promotion candidate.
Henry Ford, C AAA: had a .244/.426/.415 split for the month, good for a halfway decent looking OPS figure, thanks to a slew of walks bolstering the OBP. Still not impressing, which is why his prospect stock is falling fast. He’s now at least down to 7th or 8th in the system. Temperature: still cool.
Jarlin Susana, RHP (starter) AA: On the 60-day DL to open the season, and is still there. Per the Nats injury report, the last update was 6/12 reporting that he was throwing off a mound. What gives here? It took him 5 weeks to go from throwing on flat ground to the mound. Did the team hide the severity of his injury? Temperature: still on ice.
Travis Sykora: RHP (starter) AA: out for the season, the injury report lists his return as 2027. Temperature: on ice.
Gavin Fien SS/3B, Low-A: Finally had a good month at the plate, .294/.380/.529. He’s still entirely playing OF, despite all the middle infielder promotions out of low-A, which lowers his value a little bit. He’s splitting time between CF and RF. Temperature: warming up.
Alex Clemmey, LHP (Starter) AA: Clemmey had another mediocre month; 5.53 ERA, too many hits, too many walks. I’m not sure what to do here; is it possible he’s hit a ceiling? Temperature: pretty cold.
Seaver King, SS AAA: After a torrid start to the season, King cooled this month, slashing just .256/.323/.389. he’s playing a lot of 2B, presumably in case the Nats want a stretch bat to take over. But, unless he continues to hit, he’s not coming up anytime soon. Temperature: cooled for a bit.
Luis Perales, RHP (starter) AAA: Perales reverted to earlier bad form, and continues to remind us that the Bennet-for-Perales trade sucked. 20/11 k/bb in 21 innings and a 6.53 ERA. Temperature: cold.
Devin Fitz-Gerald, 2B/SS, AA: AA has been a wake-up call for Fitz-Gerlad; he hit just .132 this month. Temperature: Hot to get to AA, now cold.
Landon Harmon, RHP (starter): Low-A: He remains on the 7-day DL in Low-A with an oblique strain that continues to be described as “not serious.” He hasn’t thrown since April 24th, meaning he’s now working on 9 weeks out of action. Temperature: On Ice, starting to be concerning.
Ronny Cruz: SS High-A. After a tough first month, he’s picking it up. 263/.314/.400. Not awesome, but not terrible. Temperature: luke warm?
Luke Dickerson, SS/CF Low-A: .253/.451/.413. Dickerson took a TON of walks this month, ironic since our discussions on this platform included criticism of the amount of Ks he was taking. Well, this month he still struckout a lot, but only hit one out to go with 27 BBs in 22 games. Interesting. At least he’s back on the dirt, playing mostly middle infield now, moving around all three skill positions. Temperature: meh. Not sure what to think here.
Ethan Petry, 1B AA: his promotion to AA has not gone well: he hit just .172 in June Temperature: Hot to get to AA, now cold.
Coy James, SS/3B, Low-A: No real change here; .243/.360/.365 for the month. Not really living up to the prospect hype so far. Temperature: still cold.
Angel Felix, SS High-A: Meh slash line of .265/.315/.422 . Showed a little bit of pop. May be impacted by being moved of SS thanks to Willits. Temperature: cool.
Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (starter) High-A: He cleaned up this month: 1.38 ERA and 33/11 K/BB in 22 ip and probably merited a promotion; perhaps another month of work and he’ll be up. Temperature: hot.
Jackson Kent, LHP (Starter) AAA: . Jackson Kent’s first full month in AAA went swimmingly: 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA and solid K/BB numbers (28/7 in 24ip). Is it possible that Kent will be the first 2024 class draftee to get to the majors? Temperature: Pretty warm
Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (starter): High-A: Sime’s first month in High-A was … interesting. 5 starts, 17ip, 2.60 ERA and 27ks in 17ip, so he still is throwing it by people. But, he also has 16 walks in those 17ip, which has bloated his Whip a bit to 1.50. Named to the Futures game roster. Temperature: hot.
Davian Garcia, RHP (starter) AA; On the full-season DL, hopefully to return in 2027. Temperature: on ice.
Yeremy Cabrera CF High-A: has struggled upon his promotion; hit just .205 this month. Temperature: hot to get to High-A, now cold.
Notables #20 and above by level:
in AAA:
#27 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B in AAA finally had a bad month: .230/.287/.437.
#31 Phillip Glasser 2B in AAA had a great month: slashing .438/.491/.500. He’s back on track. .
#33 Albimec Ortiz 1B/DH in AAA is hitting just .225.
Also, not for nothing: 40-man members Hassell (.203) and especially Weimer (hitting just .125) are not doing themselves any favors.
In AA:
#21 Sam Peterson is struggling, hitting just .221 this month.
#26 Caleb Lomavita had a monster June; 8 homers powering his slash line to .286/.352/.762. Too bad Ford blocks his path to AAA.
#30 Cayden Wallace is producing at a very high clip once again: .329/.346/.633. He can play 2B, 3B, and has even been playing a bunch of SS this season.
#60 TJ White, newly promoted to AA this month, hit just .154 for the Senators in June.
In High-A:
#40 Kevin Bazzell continued to hit this month, slashing .300//.345/.440. Not bad for a catcher, but see above; Lomavita in AA is crushing, and Ford in AAA can’t be sat. So there’s a log jam.
#41 Cristian Vaquero remains on the DL, but has started rehab. Somehow he’s been on the DL since early May and I never saw it; he’s been on the “active” roster on the Big Board for weeks.
#61 Randal Diaz played well this month: .304/.420/.411, somehow getting playing time in a crowded middle infield in Wilmington.
Elijah Green cut down on his K’s this month once again, down to 34 for t he month (in 21 games). His astounding figures for the season? 67 games, 243 ABs, and 127 Ks. He’s striking out at a 52% clip for the season. I’ve just never seen anything like it before.
Unranked but recently promoted Jacob Walsh hit just .206 for the month.
Unranked but recently promoted Jack Moroknek hit just .125 upon his promotion.
In Low-A:
#38 Sir Jamison Jones hit just .125 this month.
#39 Rafael Ramirez Jr took a step back slashing .226/.368/.371.
#51 Dashyll Tejeda, newly promoted, held his own his first month in full season ball: .246/.364/.393
#94 Manual Cabrera got promoted up from FCL and has been hitting well: .288/.377/.458. He’s playing mostly 3B
Unranked Hunter Hines got demoted, then destroyed Low-A with an OPS > 1.000. may want to put him back up.
Unranked Jordan Williams, a 26yr old NDFA signed earlier this year, has been cruising: .349/.472/.512. Williams is an interesting one: he didn’t finish his NCAA eligibility until he was 25.
In FCL, here’s hitting stats for some of our notable hitting prospects recently moved up from the DSL.
#23 MarconiGerman; .238/.432/.413 in june.
#36 Brayan Cortesia: .288/.447/.288. that’s not a lot of power.
#42 Daniel Hernandez: .222/.323/.259. Not good.
#46 Browm Martinez: .259/.474/.389. Nots of walks.
#47 Victor Hurtado struggled in june: .237/.387/.271
In DSL, here’s hitting stats for the four marquee 2026 IFA signings:
Isaias Suarez OF (corner): .207/.452/.207 in 11 games
Angel Ramirez OF (corner): 211/.333/.649 in 38Abs so far.
Samil Serrano OF (cf): 310/.397/.517 in 58ABs so far.
Juan Duran 1B: 357/.438/.956
In the DSL, the remaining big money 2025IFA signings who are still there:
Ronny Bello SS: .294/.387/.412; big improvement over last year.
Esnaider Vargas: Of/DH: .278/.371/.519: providing some more pop this year for sure.
Sime keeps mowing them down in High-A. Photo via BA
Here’s the June 2026 check-in on rotations. I’ll return to a bit of bullpen-commentary this month, because we have just gotten some significant bullpen news in the majors.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, etc.
Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).
Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin
End of May 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (still with openers), Littell (also with openers), Alvarez.
End of June 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Alvarez. Still using Openers in key spots
Changes sinceend of last Month: No changes; the same 5 guys are still making all the “starts” and we still are seeing the likes of PJ Poulin being an Opener here and there.
Rotation Observations: After one bad outing in May, Foster Griffin’s been unhittable for a month: 5 starts, 1.15 ERA, 33/4 K/BB. If we bail on the season, he’s back to being a major trade bait. Speaking of unhittable, Cade Cavalli had his best career start, and one of the better starts in the history of the franchise (non-Max Scherzer category) last night in Boston: 7ip, 1hit, 13 Ks, 0 walks, and one inexplicable sh*t talk to Wilson Contreras that got everyone all riled up. It was enough to really paper over an other wise “meh” month for Cavalli. He’s still holding onto a sub 4.00 ERA for the season. Littell was so good in May, and was right back to being awful in June: 6.10 ERA for the month. Mikolas held it together in June, even if his K/9 rate keeps plummeting (just 15Ks in 34 IP in June). Lastly Alvarez continues to be more than an effective 5th starter: 5 starts, 3.00 ERA even if his WHIP is a little elevated. He continues to show he belongs in a MLB rotation, even if he’s not throwing 95. Alvarez is exactly the kind of low-cost, under the radar starter that can make a team suddenly a play off contender, by giving confident, solid innings from the back of the rotation instead of replacement level production like most 5th starters bring to the table.
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
April 2026: Mikolas
May 2026: Irvin (but he got hurt)
June 2026: Littell but they’ll never cut him and his salary, so i’ll go back to Mikolas
Quick bullpen thoughts: I opined in general about the Philly collapse a week ago. We just got word that Mitchell Parker has a grade-3 strain of his UCL, and likely needs Tommy John surgery. This surgery, combined with his service time and overall struggles, will be presenting the team with a major decision this coming off-season, as is detailed in the MLBtraderumors.com article. He’ll be super-2, but will be basically out all of 2027; do you even tender him a contract? His production this year has been abhorrent out of the bullpen (6.58 ERA) but wasn’t a ton better last year as a starter (5.68 ERA across 33 games/30 starts). You hate to part ways with a home-grown guy, but I see little evidence he can be an effective starter or reliever at this point, and his 40-man spot may be better served by a pending rule5 eligible guy this coming off-season. Maybe we can offer him a MLFA/NRI deal so he can remain in the org and rehab with the only team he’s known, then give him a shot in 2027.
AAA Rochester
Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)
End of May 2026: Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain, Kent
End of June 2026: Perales, Lara, Champlain, Kent, Penrod as an opener
Changes sinceend of last Month: Cornelio spent most of the month, including the end of it, in the MLB bullpen and had his “starts” replaced by middle-reliever Zach Penrod, who had four opens in the month. Reinforcements are arriving, as we’ll discuss in the AA promotion section.
Rotation Observations: Perales reverted to form, and continues to remind us that the Bennet-for-Perales trade sucked. 20/11 k/bb in 21 innings and a 6.53 ERA. Maybe we move this guy to the bullpen and see if he can max it out effectively as a late-inning guy? Lara was average: 4.00 era, 1.53 whip, and a .265 BAA. Newly promoted Champlain got a full month’s run-out and was meh: 5.56 ERA, 13 Ks in 22 ip, an a .292 BAA. Jackson Kent’s first full month in AAA went swimmingly: 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA and solid K/BB numbers (28/7 in 24ip). Is it possible that Kent will be the first 2024 class draftee to get to the majors? The only other 2024 draftee to get to AAA thus far is Seaver King, who we’ll certainly talk about in the July 1 prospect post coming up soon.
Next guy to get promoted:
April: Alvarez and Cornelio. Verdict: both have been promoted, Alvarez is staying there.
May: Perales and his sub 2.00 ERA could play in the majors.
June: Kent the only deserving candidate right now, but he’s not getting promoted anytime soon.
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
April: none really, Champlain had the least investment
May: Lara clearly.
June: Back to Champlain, who looks like he may be stuck at a ceiling of effectiveness in AA
AA Harrisburg
Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawara, Kent
End of May 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Ogasawara, Lyon, Randall (spot starts from Van Scoyoc)
End of June 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Lyon, Randall, Van Scoyoc
Changes sinceend of last Month: Ogawawara was released so he could return to Japan, ending our first (?) foray into the Japanese FA market with a thud. He was replaced by promoted long-man/spot starter Van Scoyoc and a slew of openers/bullpen games; 10 different guys had “starts” in June, but we’ll just talk about the ones making the longest stints per night.
Rotation Observations: Clemmey had another mediocre month; 5.53 ERA, too many hits, too many walks. I’m not sure what to do here; is it possible he’s hit a ceiling? At Age 20? Hopefully not. Luckham was actually effective this month; a sub 3.00 ERA and good peripherals pitching behind openers for the most part. Lyon’s ERA was bloated in comparison to his excellent numbers: a 1.02 whip and a .183 BAA; he’s pitching very well for a 2025 draftee in AA. Randall’s first full month in AA was solid; 4 ERA, nearly a 1 whip, .229 BAA, a K/inning; that’s great. Van Scoyoc’s month was so-so, a 3.94 ERA in just 16ip but for some reason was the one they chose to promote up to slot into the rotation spot in AAA. Maybe it was social promotion, in that he’s a 26 MLFA who spent the entirety of 2025 in the AAA bullpen of Colorado.
Next guy to get promoted:
April: Ogasawara, then Kent. Kent was promoted over Ogasawara
May: clearly Ogasawara.
June: Van Scoyoc (and he was promoted on 7/1). After that it may be time to see if Luckham can make it “third time a charm” in AAA; he had starts there in 2024 and 2025.
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
April: Luckham.
May: still Luckham.
June: Chemmey
High-A Wilmington
Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon
End of May 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Polanco, Bruni, Meckley
End of June 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Meckley, Sime, Tepper
Changes sinceend of last Month: Polanco was dumped out of the rotation when Sime was promoted up. Similarly, Bruni went back to LR/SS duties when Tepper came off the DL officially after a long rehab stint in Low-A.
Rotation Observations: Riley Maddox had another solid month; 3.25 ERA, 1.10 whip, which led to his promotion at the end of the month. If it were me, I probably would have promoted Tejeda, who cleaned up this month: 1.38 ERA and 33/11 K/BB in 22 innings. Meckley struggled badly this month, with 9 Ks and 15BBs in 16ip and a 6.06 ERA. Sime’s first month in High-A was … interesting. 5 starts, 17ip, 2.60 ERA and 27ks in 17ip, so he still is throwing it by people. But, he also has 16 walks in those 17ip, which has bloated his Whip a bit to 1.50. Finally Tepper, back after 6 rehab starts in lower minors, had a solid first month back but is walking too many guys. Interestingly, after finally being relieved of starter duties, Polanco in a long-man role had a decent month; ERA in the 3s, decent peripherals. Maybe he just needs to be an innings eater in the middle of the bullpen.
Next guy to get promoted:
April: Randall: he did indeed get promoted
May: None. Tejeda if I had to name one.
June: Maddox (Promoted on 7/1), should have been Tejeda.
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
April: Polanco
May: still Polanco but likely Bruni makes way for Sime. (Polanco indeed finally dumped to bullpen)
June: Meckley
Low-A Fredericksburg
Low-A spent most of the first 6 weeks of the season doing tandem starts, but as players hit the DL or hit ineffectiveness, we’ve seen the rotation really settle into something more conventional.
Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan
End of May 2026: Portorreal, Sime, Johnson, Fischer, and Tepper doing rehab the whole month
End of June 2026: Portorreal, Johnson, Fischer, Manning, De La Cruz plus rehab starts from Herz, Williams, Tepper.
Changes sinceend of last Month: Sime was promoted, replaced by De la Cruz. When Tepper’s rehab ended, they put Manning into the starting rotation.
Rotation Observations: Portorreal reverted to his earlier season form and put up an 8 ERA for the month; that’s just not going to cut it, with the huge number of MLFAs pouring into the system that the team may want to try out as starter. Luke Johnson, who the team signed for exactly $2k in 2024 as a 10th round throw away pick, dominated last month to the tune of a 1.86 ERA. Fischer had a solid month, turning 4 starts into a 3.60 ERA and a promotion (like with Maddox above, not sure why it was Fischer to move up and not someone else). Manning struggled in the rotation for the first time, with a 5.60 ERA for the month. Lastly De la Cruz, the first 24IFA arm to get out of rookie ball (Angel Feliz is in High-A, also a 24IFA), had an abhorrent k/bb ratio 10k/18bb in 15Ip but somehow kept his ERA at 2.30 for the month.
Taking a quick peek at some of the guys still doing “tandem” or long relief work at this point in Low-A: Travis Sthele threw a donut this month: 5 games, 16ip, 0 runs. All in “rehab” appearances. Clearly he needs to go back home to High-A.
Lastly, DJ Herz made one rehab start, then got diagnosed with a left flexor strain, so he’s back to being shut down, and who knows now when he’ll be back.
Next guy to get promoted:
April: Meckley; indeed he was promoted
May: Fischer
June: Fischer, who was actually promoted 7/1. Should be Johnson
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
April: Portorreal: he has turned it around greatly.
May: Probably Johnson if we had to pick someone; they’ve already settled the tandem starters and demoted guys to the pen
June: Portorreal
Rookie FCL
Reminder: The Milb.com FCL site can’t do month splits, so this is kind of running full-season analysis.
Opening Day 2026: Weaver, Reyes, Martina, De la Cruz, Robles
End of May 2026: Reyes, De la Cruz, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell
End of June 2026: Reyes, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell, Gillis, Millikan
Changes sinceend of last Month: De la Cruz promoted, replaced by Gillis.
Rotation Observations: Reyes continues to hold a respectable 4.09 ERA.as a 21yr old 23IFA. Robles has 20 walks in 24IP and needs to tighten up. Lopez has 17 walks in 21 innings; same story. Bothwell is a 26yr old MLFA with an ERA north of 9.00, but he does have 34 ks in 26ip. Nonetheless, not sure why he’s still rostered after having been demoted from Low-A earlier this year. In Gillis’ two starts; 5 runs on 10 hits. Too early to tell. Lastly we have Millikan, the sole bright spot on the starters: in 5 games and 17IP he has a 0.53 ERA. Time to move up the 23yr old MLFA.
Next guy to get promoted:
May: Reyes (ended up being De la Cruz)
June: Millikan
Next guy to get cut/demoted:
May: Robles
June: Bothwell
Rookie DSL
Reminder: The Milb.com FCL site can’t do month splits, so this is kind of running full-season analysis.
Opening Day 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Reynoso, Carela
End of June 2026: Manzueta, Medina, Sarit, Carela, Salas
Changes sinceend of last Month: Reynoso made 3 starts, then hasn’t appeared since 6/19 (but isn’t on the DL). He seems to have been replaced by LR/SS Salas for the time being.
Rotation Observations: The first month of a DSL rotation is always fun, with 17yr olds coming face to face with pro hitters for the first time and sometimes putting up astronomical numbers. Manzueta: 11+ ERA. Medina: 0.96 ERA. Night and day. Sarit’s 6.48 ERA a little inflated when looking at peripherals. Reynoso got shelled for 3 outings then hit the non-DL bench. Carela looks good so far in 4 starts, but it’s just 10 innings. Salas has 4 appearances and 9ip and has struggled so far.
Amongst those also getting longer outings/tandem starts: Jesus Carrasco has a 7.71 ERA in 11ip and Manuel Ruiz has a 5.23 IP in 10innings. Everyone else in the DSL seems to be more in the 1-2 IP/appearance range right now.
In the bullpen, Rafael Mejas gave up 0 runs in 7 middle relief innings for a good start.
On the other end of the spectrum, here’s a line for you: Aldemaro Sevilla, signed in January, had 4 apperances, threw 6 2/3 innings. In those 4 games, he gave up 14 runs on 8 hits and 14 walks. That’s a 17.55 ERA and a 3.30 whip.
I like Lord, but man he got pummeled this week. Photo via threads.com IG
It’s always fun when Philadelphia comes into town. Three of their best hitters are former Nats (Turner, Harper, and Schwarber) and a massive number of DC area residents are PA transplants more than willing to scarf up cheap seats, drink beer, and make noise.
This week’s trip though had a somewhat ominous feeling. That’s because this week may finally have been the breaking point for the cobbled together bullpen for this erstwhile wild card contender.
On Tuesday, the bullpen gave up three in the 8th and eight in the 9th to blow two leads in two innings.
On Wednesday, they gave up 2 in the 9th to blow another lead.
On Thursday, they turned a 5-0 lead into a 10-5 loss, this time giving up five in the 9th, including a F-You homer from or former prodigal son Harper.
That’s, not good. Those are debilitating losses for an offense that did its job and demoralizing for starters who put the team in position to win. Nearly every guy in the bullpen over the last three days showed the kind of ineptitude that would lead to demotions or outright releases on a real team.
Tuesday it was Lovelady for 3, Lord for 6, and Schultz for 2
Wednesday it was Ribalta and Lovelady for 1 apiece
Thursday it was Parker for 3, Varland for 5
The only relievers not named for ineptitude this week were Poulin (the opener on Tuesday who also got a hold Wednesday) and our closer Beeter (who blew saves on both Tuesday and Thursday but somehow avoided having any ERs).
Fun fact, and a reason I began writing this post: I read someone on twitter point out that the Nats relievers now have had 48 Save Opportunities this season and have blown HALF of them. Half! Mitchell Parker has as many blown saves by himself as the entire Houston Astros team this season, and our closer Beeter isn’t far behind, having padded his stats this week. Pretty awesome statistic.
I’ve been kind of beating the drum on this bullpen for a while, having been thrown together primarily with MLFAs, Waiver claims, and low-level trade acquisitions. Somehow the team has remained above .500 for weeks thanks to an amazing offense in spite of the pitching staff deficiencies. But this week, it finally collapsed.
There’s five 40-man relievers in AAA right now, four of them down there because they weren’t even as good as the crew we have in the majors. Henry has a 6.00 ERA in the majors this season, Granillo a 9.64 ERA, Kent a 6+ ERA in limited innings, and Schulz at 5.87. We also have a just-acquired waiver claim in Justin Lawrence, who may be next in line for the firing squad if the team decides to demote one of these guys before the weekend series.
On top of that, the team has spent most of the last 2 months grabbing every MLFA they could find looking for reinforcements. This team now has 35 MLFAs in its system signed this year, all up and down the system, many of them arms. They’ve got 26yr old MLFAs in rookie ball, they’ve got Indy league castoffs up and down the system, they’ve got a 29yr old MLFA from the Mexican leagues in AA. All looking for found gold apparently. Havn’t really found it yet, but we’re running out of time.
Is this week’s results the end of our Wild Card dreams? Well, no, but they’re not looking good. We lost 3 games to a Wild Card competitor and now sit 3 games out of the last wild card spot. We can get healthy fast; our next six games are away to AL East competition that normally would be competitive, but are not this year (Baltimore and Boston). However, these two teams are not easy to beat, especially on the road. Then we host Pittsburgh and Houston, both hovering around .500 like us. Our last series before the ASB is hosting the Yankees, which could be a telling series to take us into the break.
If this team scuffles through its next few series, then gets pulverized by the Yankees, that could be the signal to the front office to Sell, Sell, Sell. We’ll see.
This past weekend Oklahoma took on UNC in the CWS finals to win.
Here’s a quick game by game recap.
Game 1: Oklahoma got to UNC’s starter Jason Nicaro fast, knocking him out in the 4th and building a 7-3 lead they wouldn’t give up. Their own starter Cord Rager settled down after giving up 3 in the first to keep his team in the game, and Oklahoma’s Jaxon Willits (brother of Eli) hit 4th for the sooners and helped drive the offense.
Game 2: OK scored early, but UNC hung in and got 5 one-hit shutout innings from its star long reliever Glauber, which gave the offense time to win the game 6-2 and send it to the Monday finale. Oklahoma let their starter Xander Mercurious throw FIFTY (50) pitches in the third inning… and then brought him back out for the 4th! Yeah, that’s not good.
Game 3: Oklahama’s offense just would not stop, knocking out UNC arm after arm and eventually winning by the lopsided score of 13-2 to win the national title. In the “not to be outdone” category, UNC brought in their freshman stud Glauber, who threw 65 pitches on Sunday, with zero days rest into the highest of high leverage situations in this game. That’s serious coaching malpractice, and I hope Glauber’s arm didn’t suffer any permanent damage.
Your 2026 College World Series Champion: Oklahoma Sooners
Here’s some links to past years of CWS coverage here. I’ve been doing this for almost 15 years now! Each link below is the blog post covering that CWS final.
That’s it for the 2026 CWS tournament. It was a weird tournament, losing the two top seeds early and then the odds-on favorite quickly in Omaha. There was very little star power, unlike the previous few years when the eventual champions were led by 1-1 draft candidates.
Up next: the draft season kicks into gear; we’ll post more mocks and more analysis, do the July 1st recaps of prospects and pitching, and then see who we pick 11th overall in mid July.
After a couple of frenetic weeks of tracking CWS regional and super regionals, we’re through the pedestrian-paced group play in Omaha and have reached the final of the 2026 CWS tournament; here’s a recap of group play in Omaha for the 2026 CWS.
In the Top Bracket (#16 West Virginia, Troy, #5 North Carolina, Ole Miss )
In the opening games, as they’ve had a habit of doing, WVA got two runs late to win it 7-5 over Troy, while UNC scored 5 runs in the 7th and 8th innings to sneak past Ole Miss and put themselves into a great position, having passed the first test by beating the sole SEC participant in the group.
In the first elimination game, Troy got a historic program win, ousting the SEC’s Ole Miss with a two-and-out, to stay alive.
In the winner’s bracket game, UNC took control of the group with a solid 5-2 win over West Virginia.
In the play-in game, West Virginia waxed Troy 12-0 (as one might expect) to put themselves into the group final.
In the group final, UNC jumped ahead early and the game was never in doubt, eventually winning 12-7 to wrap up the group without a loss and move to the CWS final.
Final Group standings: UNC, WVA, Troy, Ole Miss
In the Bottom Bracket (#3 Georgia, #6 Texas, #7 Alabama, Oklahoma)
In the opening games, #7 Alabama could do nothing with Oklahoma’s starer Cord Rager (7ip, 3h, 0r) and lost 9-0. Meanwhile, Georgia’s Joey Volchko threw a complete game with 15Ks, 4 hits and one unearned run as Georgia dominated Texas.
In the first elimination game, #6 Texas destroyed #7 Alabama, scoring 7 runs on their starter in the first two innings to send them home 2 and out.
In the winner’s bracket game, Oklahoma stunned #3 Georgia with 3 in the first, then made the lead stick as they took control of the bracket.
In the play-in game, two Georgia arms tag-teamed for a 4-hit shutout to send Texas home and give themselves a shot at living up to pre-CWS predictions
In the group final, Oklahoma never trailed, and blew out the game late to win 11-4 and move to the CWS final.
Final Group standings: Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas, Alabama
Analysis/commentary
UNC winning the Group A isn’t much of a surprise, given the weakness of the group. But Oklahoma beating three top-8 seeds and fellow SEC members is a shock, and a testament to the depth of the SEC. Oklahoma finished 14-16 in the SEC and was the 11th ranked team in the conference. And now they’re in the CWS final. That’s why they play the games, eh?
CWS Preview and Prediction:
Thanks to clean weather and no extra games, both squad’s pitching staffs will be on full and regular rest. The potential third game “starters” would be slightly rushed back; they’d have 4 days rest instead of the normal 6-day cycle in college baseball, but that’s certainly not going to kill anyone’s arm, especially if its the final game of the season.
The CWS national series starts on Saturday 6/20/26.
Sat 6/20/26: UNC’s Jason Decaro (10-2, 2.35 ERA) vs Oklahoma’s Cord Rager (6-3, 4.69 ERA)
Sun 6/21/26: UNC’s Ryan Lynch (4-4, 4.53 ERA) vs Oklahoma’s Xander Mercurius (1-2, 5.51 ERA)
(if needed) Mon 6/22/26. UNC’s Jackson Rose (5-0, 2.15 ERA) vs Oklahoma’s Nick Wesloski (2-1, 3.63 ERA)
Suffice it to say, neither team is known for lock down pitching necessarily. A couple of these “starters” are actually the staff’s long relievers, and some of these games may turn into bullpen games, or use openers, or other creative pitching plans. Look for a high-offense final set.
Abrams can’t possibly be traded now, can he? Photo via Wikipedia
As I write this post on 6/17/26, the Washington Nationals baseball team sits at 39-35. Four games over .500 for the first time since the 2019 season, and if the season ended today they’ve be the last NL Wild Card.
To say that I’m generally shocked the team is in this position is putting things lightly.
When the team cut bait on its pre-FA stars in July 2021 (Schwarber, Turner, Scherzer) and then again in Aug 2022 (Soto), I figured we were on another 5 year rebuilding path, not unlike the one we endured as fans starting in 2008. That rebuild plan ran into a bit of a snag though, as ownership turned over and the new group refused to spend money to augment the roster when injuries took out key planned contributors. A real gap in player development thanks to basically 5 straight blown drafts from 2016-2020 doomed the team from really having any chance to compete without those FAs, and we drifted for years.
The new regime, marked by its openness to analytics and its youth, seemed like it was preparing the 2026 season to be a 60-win team, trading away its best arm for prospects, grabbing a half a dozen waiver claims throughout the beginning of the year, and starting the 2026 season with fully 1/4 of its opening day roster being comprised of Rule5, Waiver claims, or MLFAs while sending down a slew of guys who ended the 2025 season on the MLB roster.
I was convinced this was a “bottoming out” technique, just grabbing spare parts off the waiver wire to see who stuck at the expense of guys like Crews, or Hassell, or Parker.
Well, damned if it doesn’t look like its working. We’re nearly to the halfway point of the season and the team is at 39-35. How? Well, somehow this team leads the league in Runs scored, and they sit 3rd (behind only the LAD and NYY) in terms of total team wRC+. That’s patently amazing. Wood and Abrams of course, but Ruiz is crushing the ball all of a sudden, Garcia is holding his own, Lile continues to be productive, found-gold Mead is hitting for a ton of power, and even most of the fringe infielders are holding their own.
The starters collectively aren’t great for the season… but after weathering the April storm, the starters have gone from dead last in multiple metrics to middle-of the road. The Relievers are still awful, but just less awful as the manager has used openers freely (a first for the organization), has not been afraid to call up guys to give innings, and we have a few guys who we can now count on when the chips are down. The team continues almost weekly to sign additional veteran MLFAs, who are waiting in the wings like army reinforcements, ready to come up and help out and see who can stick.
It’s amazing really. They’ve won 10 of their last 11 series! How is that possible?
Now for the big question; you can’t possibly sell at the trade deadline if you’re in playoff contention, can you?? The entire off-season was talking about flipping Gore and Abrams … you can’t possibly break this team up now, can you? Now, if they go on a swoon and go on a 10-20 stretch … sure. That’s probably be too big of a gap to overcome. but, again, they’ve won 10 of their last 11 series; they’re more likely to go 20-10 than 10-20 right now.
Anyway. It seems like I rarely write about the big league team since .. well, tracking prospects and dreaming on guys in Low-A is more fun than hyper analyzing a second division team, which they’ve been basically from the moment they won the 2019 World Series. But fair is fair; this rag tag team seems like it could absolutely be in the playoffs in October. Amazing.
I’m a little late with this post, thanks to this time of year being a little tough to keep up with in Baseball, but I wanted to comment on the opening offers in the upcoming CBA labor war.
I’ve been on record for some time as being a real cynic for essentially anything that comes out of the MLB owners’ collective mouths when it comes to bargaining sessions. I’ve shown before how the owners have systematically pocketed hundreds of millions of dollars of collective salary over the past decade of CBAs, and how they’ve picked and picked at a “salary cap” for years in the form of a Luxury tax with increasing penalties.
Now, in the first salvos of the upcoming Collective Bargaining sessions for the soon-to-expire CBA between the league and its players, the owners have laid it bare: they want a hard cap.
They’ve proposed a floor of $171,200,000 and a cap of $245,300,000.
In this post, let’s talk about the Cap and Floor, specifically. This is the first time the owners have proposed a Floor, and it’s a hefty one. So, naturally you may say, “ok well the $171M floor is super high … that would guarantee a ton more money goes to the players, right?”
Wrong.
Here’s some quick simple arithmetic to show that the owner’s offer is self-serving. Using Cot’s macro numbers for each of the 30 teams’ 40-man/CBA tax figure (which includes salaries for all 40-man players, plus deferrals, plus minor leagues, plus benefits), I’m going to show you why this initial proposal is disengenuous.
Team
CB tax rank
CB Tax figure
O/U
Amt over Cap or Amt to get to floor
Cap/Floor
LAD
1
$420,000,000
Over
-174700000
$245,300,000
NYY
2
$379,200,000
Over
-133900000
$245,300,000
NYY
3
$338,700,000
Over
-93400000
$245,300,000
tor
4
$322,700,000
Over
-77400000
$245,300,000
Phi
5
$314,800,000
Over
-69500000
$245,300,000
Bos
6
$268,700,000
Over
-23400000
$245,300,000
SDP
7
$259,200,000
Over
-13900000
$245,300,000
Atl
8
$253,400,000
Over
-8100000
$245,300,000
CHC
9
$249,700,000
Over
-4400000
$245,300,000
Det
10
$245,200,000
Within
$245,200,000
Hou
11
$237,200,000
Within
$237,200,000
SF
12
$230,900,000
Within
$230,900,000
Ari
13
$226,100,000
Within
$226,100,000
Bal
14
$218,800,000
Within
$218,800,000
Tex
15
$207,800,000
Within
$207,800,000
Sea
16
$199,500,000
Within
$199,500,000
LAA
17
$196,400,000
Within
$196,400,000
KC
18
$185,300,000
Within
$185,300,000
Cin
19
$151,100,000
Below
20100000
$171,200,000
Col
20
$141,900,000
Below
29300000
$171,200,000
Oak
21
$141,400,000
Below
29800000
$171,200,000
Mil
22
$139,700,000
Below
31500000
$171,200,000
Pit
23
$138,500,000
Below
32700000
$171,200,000
Min
24
$131,800,000
Below
39400000
$171,200,000
Was
25
$122,700,000
Below
48500000
$171,200,000
STL
26
$112,900,000
Below
58300000
$171,200,000
TB
27
$112,200,000
Below
59000000
$171,200,000
CWS
28
$111,700,000
Below
59500000
$171,200,000
Cle
29
$88,800,000
Below
82400000
$171,200,000
Mia
30
$82,000,000
Below
89200000
$171,200,000
Sorry for the crummy formatting, but hopefully you get the gist.
9 Teams are currently over the proposed hard cap. They’re a collective $598M over.
12 Teams are currently under the proposed floor. They’re a collective $579M under.
If you add up the 30 team’s current CB tax figure, you get to $6.228B in payroll.
If you add up the Cap/Floor figures, assuming that the 9 over teams get under, the 12 teams currently under raise to the floor, and the middle ground teams stay where they are … you get $6.209B
In other words … the Owners just proposed a system that will see them spend LESS than they currently are. And that’s before we get any details in to the supposed 50/50 split on “league revenues” that is usually laughable to arrive at, since 28 of the 30 teams are privately owned and refuse to open their books.
Yes this is just a first offer, so presumably the next offer will raise these figures to something more palatable. There’s no details on penalties for teams who refuse to spend the floor (and you KNOW there’s going to be teams that refused to get there). There’s no details on how we possibly get to this system from where we are now, with long-term contracts that would have to be grandfathered in somehow or an incremental implementation plan.
Yes, I get it; NFL, NBA, and NHL all manage to live with a defined revenue split and a cap/floor. but, all three of those leagues also have simple, national TV contracts that facilitate and equalize revenue across teams. That instantly make playing in NYC little different than playing in Green Bay, Wisconsin. So it’s still apples and oranges. Baseball is such a regional sport, it’s just hard to imagine teams like the Yankees, Boston, Cubs, and Dodgers giving up their lucrative local RSN deals for the betterment of their co-owners. Especially when we don’t even KNOW what some of these teams actually earn from RSN deals because they, you know, own the RSN.
There’s a slew of other issues presented that go along with this, but I wanted to focus on this issue as a starting point.
