Nationals Arm Race

Before we get too far away from June 1st … Here’s a monthly check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system. Stats are for just May 2026 unless otherwise noted.

I’ll be using my own personal top 20 to drive the rankings, the ones I posted right after the season started so they don’t take into account fast starts from players like Fitz-Gerald or Cruz.

All the stats links I use are at my Nats Links page, which I visit every day for various reasons. I won’t repeat all the stats links and transactions pages and what not; just go to the Links page.

• #1. Eli Willits SS, Low-A: Slashed .342/.457/.526 for May, with 2 homers, 10sb. Yeah, that’ll do. That’s not bad for a kid who should be getting measured for his HS cap and gown right now. This team is not shy about promoting players; how long does he stay in Low-A? Temperature: red hot, imminent promotion candidate.
• #2. Henry Ford, C AAA: He is still not hitting. He was off in April, and May wasn’t much better. .234/.372/.344. that’s not a ton of power, even for a catcher. Luckily Kiebert Ruiz has “remembered” how to hit at the MLB level so there’s not a ton of pressure. One has to wonder what the heck is going on here? We’re talking a significant prospect, well regarded across the industry. I wonder if he’s got a knock we don’t know about. Temperature: pretty cold
• #3: Jarlin Susana, RHP (starter) AA: On the 60-day DL to open the season, and is still there. Per the Nats injury report, the last update was 5/5 a month ago and he was “continuing his throwing progression” in Palm Beach. His return has now just been listed as “2026,” which could mean tomorrow or September. I don’t think anyone though this was a season long injury, and the loss of both Susana and Sykora for an entire season really is putting this franchise back. Temperature: on ice.
• #4 Travis Sykora: RHP (starter) AA: likely out for the season, the injury report lists his return as 2027. Temperature: on ice.
• #5 Gavin Fien SS/3B, Low-A: he made it back off the DL, still not entirely sure what the injury was, but he’s been really struggling. .180/.305/.280 for May. I wonder if he came back too soon from injury. Temperature: ice cold.
• #6 Alex Clemmey, LHP (Starter) AA: Clemmey continues to struggle in AA; 5.26 ERA this month, 15 walks in 22 innings. I’m not sure what to do here; he has nothing to prove in High-A; he’s just got to ride it out here. Temperature: pretty cold.
• #7 Seaver King, SS AAA: King continued his torrid start to the season, slashing .415/.475/.604 the first half of the month in AA before forcing the promotion. So far in AAA? .325/.378/.525. He also played at 2B recently (not that a SS can’t seamlessly move to 2B anyway, but still a notable signal) possibly indicating the team is thinking of bringing him up to play there instead of the Mendoza-line hitting Nunez.. Temperature: red hot; player of the year candidate.
• #8 Luis Perales, RHP (starter) AAA: Perales, who is the sole remaining 40-man arm from opening day who hasn’t pitched in the majors, was stellar this month: 1.53 ERA in 4 games. but, he’s still not pitching that many innings: 17ip in 4appearances. Also, if he throws 101, where are the Ks?? 11 Ks in 17 ip? Nonetheless, its improvement. Still, the Nats are “losing” this trade right now. Temperature: warming up nicely.
• #9 Devin Fitz-Gerald, 2B/SS, High-A: he’s blowing up High-A; .287/.368/.634 for the month of May with 9 homers. He has a higher OPS than Petry. He’s playing about 50% at 2B, 25% at SS, and 25% at 3B. He’s a little undersized so it seems like 2B may be his destination, but with this kind of power I’ll take it. Temperature: Red Hot, POTY candidate.
• #10 Landon Harmon, RHP (starter): Low-A: He hasn’t pitched since April 24th, hit the 7-day DL in early May and has sat there. It’s reportedly an oblique injury and is “not serious” but its been a while. At least its not a shoulder/elbow. Temperature: On Ice
• #11 Ronny Cruz: SS High-A, Cruz blasted his way to High-A early … and has seen the league catch up to him in a big way. May slash line: .141/.200/.196. Was it too much, too soon? Could be. Temperature: Ice cold
• #12 Luke Dickerson, SS/CF Low-A: came back to earth this month after a nice April. Slashed: .185/.368/.310. Lots of walks and strikeouts, not much else. If you’re going to whiff at this rate, you need to hit a ton of bombs. Temperature: pretty cold.
• #13: Ethan Petry, 1B High-A: Petry spent another month in High-A crushing the ball: .288/.355/.606. I just have to ask: why is he still in High-A? The guy playing 1B for Harrisburg (Sam Brown) is hitting .228 with almost no power, so it’s not like he’s blocked. This is a 2nd rounder from a major college program; it shouldn’t be long before he’s up. Temperature: Red hot still.
• #14: Coy James, SS/3B, Low-A: Improved slightly at the plate, still not playing how we want. .229/.339/.396for the month. He has shown his fielding versatility though, hitting 4 positions so far this year (2B,SS,3B,LF). Temperature: still cold.
• #15: Angel Felix, SS High-A: May numbers improved slightly over April: .250/.337/.375. However the new knock is his defense: he’s made 9 errors in his 18 games played at 3B so far this season. That’s not good. Temperature: cool.
• #16: Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (starter) High-A: He was adequate in May with a pedestrian 4.34 ERA and more Ks than IP. But nothing special. Temperature: luke warm.
• #17: Jackson Kent, LHP (Starter) AAA: Kent blitzed through his first 3 AA starts in May, and earned a promotion to AAA. His first two AAA starts were a struggle, but his achieving AAA as a 2024 draftee is impressive. Temperature: Hot to earn the promotion.
• #18: Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (starter): High-A: Sime had an ugly era/whip in Low-A for the month but continued to strike out 2 guys an inning, so the team promoted him. As discussed extensively in the comments, If you can just throw it past everyone at the level you’re never going to develop alternate pitches. Temperature: hot.
• #19: Davian Garcia, RHP (starter) AA; Garcia was placed directly on the “Full Season” injured list on 5/29, with no passing through either the 7-day or 60-day. That’s not good, and indicates a serious arm injury. No word anywhere on what happened to him, even with AI scouring the internet for clues. Temperature: on ice.
• #20: Yeremy Cabrera CF High-A: Started May in Low-A with this ridiculous line: .483/.564/.897 and earned a promotion. In High-A so far? Not as great: 236/.323/.309. Hopefully he adjusts to th e level and returns to form. Temperature: hot.

---

Notables #20 and above by level:

in AAA:

• #27 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B continues to destroy AAA pitching: May slashline: .361/.431/.691. We’ve talked about him extensively. My take is simple: the “scouting reports” we’re getting on him make no sense, and you can’t leave someone in AAA who’s OPS is north of 1,100 forever.
• #33 Albimec Ortiz 1B/DH in AAA had an even bigger may OPS figure than Morales. We’ve struggled to score runs for years, now suddenly a bunch of randoms in the majors are leading the league in runs scored while guys are finally hitting in AAA. A weird season.

In AA:

• #21 Sam Peterson is putting it together; in May: .297/.390/.554.
• #30 Cayden Wallace continues to produce. May: .275/.333/.505
  
  

In High-A:

• #40 Kevin Bazzell blasted the ball this month: .378/.472/.511 with 5 homers in 14 games played.
• Elijah Green cut down on his K’s this month! Just 41 Ks in 25 games. (In april it was 52 Ks in 21 games).

In Low-A:

• #39 Rafael Ramirez Jr had a nice month. .323/.500/.508. I’ll take that from a SS.
• Unranked Jack Moroknek put up another good month; .293/.397/.586. Second straight month mentioning him.
  

In FCL:

• #47 Victor Hurtado, known more for his bonus figure than his production, had a nice month. .293/.397/
  .586
  
  

Here’s the May 2026 check-in on rotations. In the interest of time, which I’m pressed for this month badly, I’ll skip the bullpen comments and just focus on starters this post.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, etc.

Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).

• Big Board, Draft Tracker, and IFA Tracker
• Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com, Nats MLB stats at fangraphs.com
• AAA Rochester stats at milb.com. AAA Rochester Stats at fangraphs.com
• AA Harrisburg stats at milb.com, AA Harrisburg Stats at fangraphs.com
• High-A Wilmington stats at milb.com, High-A Wilmington Stats at fangraphs.com
• Low-A Fredericksburg Stats at milb.com, Low-A Fredericksburg stats at fangraphs.com
• FCL Nationals Stats at milb.com
• DSL Nationals Pitching Stats at milb.com

All Stats quoted are as of 5/31/26’s games.

---

We’ll start with the Majors.

• Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
• End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin
• End of May 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (still with openers), Littell (also with openers), Alvarez.

Changes since end of last Month: Irvin suffered a right shoulder strain while pitching his best game of the season (of course he did), and hit the DL. Though reported as mild, per the injury report he’s yet to resume any throwing and is just doing strength and conditioning stuff. Alvarez took his spot (as opposed to other options like Parker or Cornelio or Lord) and has continued to be decent.

Rotation Observations: Griffen’s numbers came back to earth thanks to one horrid outing. He’s still got decent looking ERA and WHIP, but a troubling 4.88 FIP that makes me wonder if we’re not going to see more regression to the mean. Cavalli really bore down in May, cutting his walk rate in half and thus his WHIP from 1.6 to 1.1. Love it. Despite Irvin’s excellent start where he got hurt, he had a rough month. Mikolas was actually decent in May; a 3.52 ERA in his five “starts.” Even though he got hit around in his first June appearance. Lastly Littell was actually our best pitcher in May; pitching to a 2.35 ERA in 6 games/30IP. Amazing given what he did in April.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April 2026: Mikolas
• May 2026: Probably Irvin before he got hurt. Now it’s likely Alvarez who makes way unless he starts throwing nothing but shutout innings. Mikolas has stayed his execution.

---

AAA Rochester

• Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
• End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)
• End of May 2026: Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain, Kent

Changes since end of last Month: Alvarez called up to cover for Irvin. That spot was filled by the promotion of Jackson Kent. Just a comment here: Kent was a 2024 4th rounder who signed for under slot and who has almost no prospect buzz; now he’s in AAA.

Rotation Observations: Perales, who is the sole remaining 40-man arm from opening day who hasn’t pitched in the majors, was stellar this month: 1.53 ERA in 4 games. He’s still not pitching that many innings: 17ip in 4appearances. Also, if he throws 101, where are the Ks?? 11 Ks in 17 ip? Weird. Champlain isn’t getting a ton of K/9 but he is effective: 3.45 ERA for the month for the late spring training MLFA signing. Cornelio & Alvarez’s numbers weren’t great this month, but they’ve also been on the commuter shuttle back and forth, a lot. Lastly we have Lara, who was outrighted and was out of the rotation for a while, and now we remember why. 7.85 ERA for the month in 6 starts and it seems like he should go back to the bullpen.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Alvarez and Cornelio. Verdict: both have been promoted, Alvarez is staying there.
• May: Perales and his sub 2.00 ERA could play in the majors.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: none really, Champlain had the least investment
• May: Lara clearly.

---

AA Harrisburg

• Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
• Reminder of the AA Disabled List: Sykora, Susana, Rosario, Stuart, Swan, now Garcia
• End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawara, Kent
• End of May 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Ogasawara, Lyon, Randall (spot starts from Van Scoyoc)

Changes since end of last Month: Kent got promoted, replaced by newly promoted Lyon. Then, Garcia hit the DL and was replaced by newly promoted Randall.

Rotation Observations: Ogasawara had another solid month with a 2.31 era, and it’s kind of dumb why the team is keeping a 28yr old veteran IFA in AA. Clemmey continues to struggle in AA; 5.26 ERA this month, 15 walks in 22 innings. I’m not sure what to do here; he has nothing to prove in High-A; he’s just got to ride it out here. Luckham continues to confound how he retains his rotation job; 6.31 ERA for the month. Lyon has struggled in his two AA starts since promotion, while Randall’s AA debut was stellar (5ip 2H 0 runs). Lastly, Long Man/spot starter Van Scoyo had a solid month: 23/2 K/BB in 23IP, a 3.80 ERA.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Ogasawara, then Kent. Kent was promoted over Ogasawara
• May: clearly Ogasawara.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Luckham.
• May: still Luckham.

---

High-A Wilmington

• Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
• End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon
• End of May 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Polanco, Bruni, Meckley

Changes since end of last Month: Randall and Lyon were promoted, replaced by LR/SS Bruni and newly promoted Meckley

Rotation Observations: It was mostly a rough month for the starters in Wilmington. Lyon had the best stats and got promoted for it, but the rest? phew. Tejeda was the best of the rest with a pedestrian 4.34 ERA and more Ks than IP. Maddox and Meckley both had ERAs right around 5. Bruni and Polanco? They’re in the 7s. It’s no wonder the system promoted Miguel Sime Jr just after the month ended.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Randall: he did indeed get promoted
• May: None. Tejeda if I had to name one.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Polanco
• May: still Polanco but likely Bruni makes way for Sime.

---

Low-A Fredericksburg

Low-A spent most of the first 6 weeks of the season doing tandem starts, but as players hit the DL or hit ineffectiveness, we’ve seen the rotation really settle into something more conventional.

• Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
• End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan
• End of May 2026: Portorreal, Sime, Johnson, Fischer, and Tepper doing rehab the whole month

Changes since end of last Month: Meckley promoted, Hughes struggled so they’re both out from April. The Sime/Johnson tandem was the split up. Harmon hit the 7-day DL with a non-serious Oblique injury, but Conradt was put on the full-season DL with a very serious injury. Lastly Tepper made 4 rehab starts in Low-A this month, enough so that he was basically on the team. Minor league rehab sessions can be up to 30 days for pitchers, so he’s got a few more days as of this writing before heading back to High-A. The team just promoted De la Cruz from the FCL; he may take Tepper’s spot.

Rotation Observations: Fischer, a 2025NDFA from UMiami, is dominating; 0.90 ERA, 0.90 whip in 6 May starts. Portorreal turned things around in a big way, even if he’s only doing 2-3 IP/start. Sime had an ugly era/whip but continued to strike out 2 guys an inning, so the team promoted him. Frankly, I don’t think he’s ready for the next level, not when he’s walking more than a guy an inning, but the fastball plays. Luke Johnson: 3.12 ERA but too many baserunners. He’s too hittable (.304 BAA). Tepper’s 4 rehab starts were stellar as expected.

Taking a quick peek at some of the guys still doing “tandem” longer relief sessions: Manning had 7 games/15IP, and a 20/2 K/BB. That’ll work. Sullivan had 2 starts and 6 appearances with a middling 4.86 ERA.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Meckley; indeed he was promoted
• May: Fischer

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Portorreal: he has turned it around greatly.
• May: Probably Johnson if we had to pick someone; they’ve already settled the tandem starters and demoted guys to the pen

---

Rookie FCL

Reminder: FCL guys are basically throwing 2-3 IP stints, so a month’s of work is usually 12-14 IP. This is small sample size analysis.

• Opening Day 2026: Weaver, Reyes, Martina, De la Cruz, Robles
• End of May 2026: Reyes, De la Cruz, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell,

Changes since end of last Month: Martina got a start the first week, but likely is hurt (hasn’t thrown since 5/11). The team added Bothwell into the mix so we show a 6-man “rotation” right now that has these guys mostly stacked up for tandem starts. Weaver made one start and hasn’t pitched since May 8th; not a good sign.

Rotation Observations: De la Cruz had a 0.75 ERA in 6 games and got promoted. Reyes looks promising: .122 BAA but a few too many walks. Lopez, Bothwell, and Reyes all have decent looking ERAs in the 3s and decent peripherals.

Next guy to get promoted:

• May: Reyes

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• May: Robles

---

Note: the DSL just started its league on 6/1, so we don’t know their rotation yet. We’ll cover that on July 1.

---

That’s it for April 2026.

So, Keith Law released an updated Top 50 minor league prospects today, and something really struck me after reading his analysis. We’ve talked about this particular issue in the past in the comments after analyzing the rankings, but now its time to put all the scouting reports on the table openly.

Here’s how Law described Seaver King in his write up today from a defensive standpoint:

“He’s a 70 defender at short with plus bat speed, above-average power and an aggressive approach at the plate that should produce a lot of contact but maybe not many walks.“

70 defender at Short. The scale only goes up to 80. A 70 grade is a plus-plus grade indicating that the player is among the absolute best in the game at that particular skill. Keith Law does not throw out those grades lightly.

Meanwhile, here’s what we have on the books as grades and quotes from the other major pundits in the space.

Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen. Here’s his top 41 prospects published earlier this year, where he gave King a 30 present/45 future grade on his defense, and a 60 arm, writing the following:

“He isn’t yet a polished shortstop defender (he’s seen his first pro action at second base in 2026) and can be error-prone both fielding and throwing … It’s going to be important for King’s shortstop defense to polish up because his future big league fit is likely in a utility role.”

This was published in April 2026 and is already aging poorly, but a 30 present grade for his defense is wildly different from what Law is reporting. Wildly.

---

Baseball America is a bit more middle of the road. In their January 2026 write-up, they gave him a 55 Arm and a 50 Field, then wrote the following:

“King played more third base and center field at Wake Forest, but he settled in as a reliable everyday shortstop with an above-average arm. He has the athletic ability to adapt at the position and learn its nuances..”

How about the boys at MLBPipeline? Their current scouting report is here. Current defensive grade: Arm 55, Field 50, exactly the same as BA, and had this to say about his defense in general:

“He played third base and center field at Wake but has been focused on shortstop in the pros. His athleticism could make him average there, but he has the arm strength to move back if needed.”

---

So, what is it? Is King’s defense a 30 or a 70? Is it really a 55 like BA/MLB say and both Law and Longenhagen are smoking something?

Better question, one that has been articulated before in the comments … how is it possible that two professional scouts watch the same guy and come to such wildly different conclusions? I mean, it’s one thing for Jonathan Mayo to watch a Seaver King game and go, “eh, 55” while Jim Callis sits right next to him and says, “nah i like him, i’m going 60.” It’s entirely another for two guys to come to such a completely different opinion.

Its College Baseball post-season time, something we’ve followed in this space for years. Here’s a quick guide to the CWS 2026 post season. The field of 64 was announced on Memorial Day Weekend at Noon, so here’s a preview of this coming weekend’s 16 regional events.

First off, some resources for you.

• Your final top 25 heading into the post-season according to d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
• WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings are a very important part of the seeding and selection process, as we’ll discuss in a bit.
• Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
• Here’s the NCAA.com field of 64 Bracket with some great data points at NCAA.com

---

Your top 8 seeds and favorites to make Omaha, in order, along with their D1Baseball Rank, RPI and their Strength of Schedule (SoS) denoted:

1. UCLA (51-6): D1Baseball #1, RPI #1, SoS #25
2. Georgia Tech (48-9): D1Baseball #2, RPI #2, SoS #15
3. Georgia (46-12): D1Baseball #3, RPI #7, SoS #24
4. Auburn (38-19), D1Baseball #5, RPI #3, SoS #1
5. North Carolina (45-11-1), D1Baseball #4, RPi #4, SoS #13
6. Texas (40-13) D1Baseball #6, RPI #5, SoS #9
7. Alabama (37-19). D1Baseball #16, RPI #6, SoS #3
8. Florida (39-19), D1Baseball #10, RPI #11, SoS #2

UCLA has put in one of the most dominant seasons we’ve seen in some time, and has never NOT been ranked #1 on any poll at any point during the season. They’re 51-6. here’s their 6 losses:

• 2/15/26 vs UC San Diego on the first Sunday of the season
• 2/24/26 vs San Diego State, a mid-week Tuesday game
• 4/14/26 vs UC Santa Barbara, another mid-week Tuesday game
• 4/26/26 vs Sacramento State, a Sunday series finale
• 5/9/26 vs Oregon, the Saturday game of their marquee series of the season
• 5/14/26 At Washington, the “Friday” game of their last league series of the season.

As for the rest of the top 8 seeds, Georgia Tech won the ACC tournament and #3 Georgia won the SEC tournament, so no surprise there. You can quibble slightly with Georgia’s RPI versus its ranking, but winning the SEC gives them that spot. Auburn gets seeded ahead of several other higher ranked SEC schools mostly because of its RPI and SoS, but they’re just 17-18 against Q1 schools, meaning I suspect they’ll be favored to get to Omaha but will go 2-out once they’re there. Same with Alabama, who is also .500 in Q1 games and is the only top 8 seed that seems to be out of line with their ranking. UNC is basically the 2nd best ACC team. Texas probably would have been above Auburn had they done better in the SEC tourney. Lastly we have Florida, who sneaks into a top 8 seed ahead of its rival Florida State, who has a slightly worse Q1 record and who lost too early in the ACC tourney.

---

The National seeds 9-16 and the other regional hosts go as follows:

• #9: Southern Miss (44-15). D1baseball ranked #7, RPI #12, SoS #35.
• #10: Florida State (38-17): D1Baseball ranked #12, RPI #8, SoS #5
• #11: Oregon (40-16), D1Baseball ranked #15, RPI #15, SoS #29
• #12: Texas A&M (39-14), D1Baseball #11, RPI #14, SoS #17
• #13: Nebraska (42-15), D1Baseball #20, RPI #10, SoS #40
• #14: Mississippi State (40-17), D1Baseball #17, RPI #13, SoS #7
• #15 Kansas (42-16) D1baseball #13, RPI #19, SoS #60
• #16 West Virginia (39-14), D1Baseball #9, RPI #17, SoS #56

Are there any hosting snubs here? Yeah probably. I’d say Arkansas has the biggest beef here: they’re ranked 14th, just made the SEC tourney final, are a bit depressed in RPI but have a 18-13 Q1 record. But it’s splitting hairs; who would you take out? WVA is screwed as the #16 seed playing into UCLA when they’re ranked top 10 and just made their conference final. Maybe Nebraska is a little weak here, but they won the Big 10 and have to get some props. The highest ranked RPI team not hosting is USC out in California … but they went just 1-11 in Q1 games.

Conference Breakdown

As usual, the SEC and ACC dominate the field with 12 and 9 teams respectively. Every team in the ACC with a 14-16 conference record or better made the field, which included a couple of arguable bubble teams in UVA and NC State. Meanwhile, the SEC got 12 teams in, including Kentucky with its 13-17 conference record ahead of Vanderbilt. Big12 got 6 teams and the Big 10 got 4 teams to round out the rest of the power conferences. Big Baseball conference Sun Belt got a record 5 teams as well, led by Southern Miss and joined by Coastal Carolina, Troy, Louisiana, South Alabama, and Texas State.

Local DC/MD/VA local teams in the tourney:

Once again, it is kind of a down year for DC/MD/VA baseball in terms of top-ranked teams; not one local team finished the year anywhere close to the top 25. UVA has some down-ballot votes but that’s it; they were shredded when their coach took a huge contract and left the program. Several local teams are in the field of 64 from the state however: Virginia, Virginia Tech, VCU, Liberty plus neighbor schools that usually have VA kids like West Virginia, ECU, CCU).

Snubs and Surprises in the field

The biggest snub seems to be Mercer; they’re RPI #28 and there’s a slew of at-large teams with lower ranks that got picked over them. their SoS hurts them, and they left themselves in jeopardy after getting upset in their conference tourney.

---

Quick Regional Thoughts

Here’s one sentence or so on each regional

1. UCLA should have no issues advancing; Virginia Tech gets a 3,000 mile flight to play in this regional.
2. Georgia Tech has to fend off a top 25 edge case team in Oklahoma but shouldn’t have any issues.
3. Georgia gets a weak ACC also ran in Boston College and Liberty; easy regional.
4. Auburn has to fend off UCF and a team in NC State that probably shouldn’t have made the field.
5. North Carolina gets a mid-pack SEC team in Tennessee and VCU. Tennessee has a late 1st round starter Tegan Kuhns who could cause issues if they save him, but UNC is favored here.
6. Texas has a joke of a regional with UCSB, Holy Cross, and Tarleton State. UCSB likely holds their 1st round pick Jackson Flora for the Texas matchup, but they don’t have much after him.
7. Alabama’s #2 seed is Oklahoma State, who can be plucky but not a challenge. They’re the most vulnerable of the top 8 seeds.
8. Florida gets their buddies Miami for a fun regional, but should advance. Florida and Miami met early in the season at Miami and Florida won both weekend games (the Sunday game got rained out).
9. Southern Miss has UVA in their regional, who would be a decent foe but who are a long ways from home. Some may think an ACC team is favored here, but Southern Miss is a tough team.
10. Florida State should have been a top 8 seed and will have to deal with Coastal Carolina’s ace Cameron Flukey to advance. But, Flukey can only pitch once, so advantage FSU.
11. Oregon has a cakewalk of a regional against two former Pac12 foes in Oregon State and Washington State.
12. Texas A&M has to be happy with their #2 being Southern California, who is an RPI darling who can’t beat any big teams (1-11 in Q1 games). Their #3 team Texas State might be more formidable.
13. Nebraska will struggle with SEC battle-tested Ole Miss in their bracket, along with the college baseball legends from Arizona State, who also has a 1st round projected starter who may get burned before they face Nebraska. Upset watch here, unless both Ole Miss and AZ State burn their aces in game one.
14. Mississippi State has to love this regional; Cincinnati and Louisiana? Really?
15. Kansas beat West Virginia for the Big 12 tourney title and for their trouble will get Arkansas, who likely blows them away.
16. West Virginia gets both an ACC and SEC team in Wake Forest and Kentucky. This should be a dog-fight. Wake as a #2 seed here is my slight favorite b/c of the strength of the conference.

---

Prospect Watch. By region, here’s some guys to watch that are like top 50 college prospects in this year’s draft:

1. UCLA regional: Roch Cholowsky is the leading 1-1 overall candidate for UCLA. UCLA also has a late 1st round arm in Logan Reddeman and 3B Roman Martin. 3 1st round talents will help you go 51-6.
2. Georgia Tech regional: GaTech’s catcher Vahn Lackey is likely going top 5. Drew Burress has been top5 in this cycle and has been mocked to the Nats in some drafts.
3. Georgia regional: (no 1st rounders in this regional)
4. Auburn regional: Auburn is led by 2B Chris Rembert, a late 1st rounder.
5. North Carolina regional: Tennessee’s ace is late 1st rounder Tegan Kuhns.
6. Texas regional: UCSB’s Jackson Flora is an upper 1st rounder.
7. Alabama regional: their SS and leading hitter is Justin Lebron, who might be in the mix for the Nats at #11.
8. Florida regional: Fla’s ace is Liam Peterson, likely the 2nd or 3rd arm off the board.
9. Southern Miss regional: UVA’s Eric Becker and AJ Gracia have 1st round buzz.
10. Florida State regional: Coastal Carolina’s ace Cameron Flukey is a mid 1st rounder.
11. Oregon regional: (no 1st rounders in this regional)
12. Texas A&M regional: TAMU is led by SS Chris Hacopian, who has mid 1st round projections. The Aggies also have a power hitting 1B in Gavin Grahovac, who may be end of 1st/supp-1st pick and another late 1st pick in Of Caden Sorrell.
13. Nebraska regional: Ole Miss’ ace is Cade Townsend and AZ State’s ace is Cole Carlon, who may meet in game one of the regional.
14. Mississippi State regional: Ace Reese for the hosts is a late 1st round 3B prospect.
15. Kansas regional: Arkansas’ ace is 1st rounder Hunter Dietz and they have 1st round Catcher prospect Ryder Helfrick as well.
16. West Virginia regional: Kentucky’s SS Tyler Bell is a 1st rounder.

Top 1st round prospects whose team outright missed the post season:

• LSU had a shockingly bad year. Derek Curiel is likely a mid-1st rounder.
• TCU just missed the bubble, so no post-season scouting of both their 1st round outfielders Sawyer Strosnider and Chase Brunson.
• Louisville had a down year; OF Zion Rose is a late 1st rounder.

---

We’ll circle back next week with Regional recaps and Super Regional projections. We probably will also return with a check-in on the 1-1 candidates in our regular series.

Baseball America just released an updated top 30 rank for all 30 teams in the majors, their first release of updated ranks since they published their big off-season material in January. Unlike some pundits, who barely bother to move prospects in-season, the BA staff did a massive overhaul of our ranks, seemingly re-evaluating the entire top 30, moving prospects in some cases 20+ spots based on the first 6 weeks of the season, to give our system a pretty radical overhaul.

Here’s the current ranks as of today; I’ve included their rank in the Jan 2026 data for comparison purposes, and will then list the next 10 or so names mentioned 5 months ago who are not in the announced top 30 today. I’ll also comment on the movement.

BA 5/18/26 rank	BA 1/28/26 rank	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	2	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
3	26	Ronny	Cruz	SS
4	8	Seaver	King	SS
5	9	Devin	Fitz-Gerald	SS
6	4	Luis	Perales	RHP (Starter)
7	6	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
8	5	Gavin	Fein	SS
9	24	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP (Starter)
10	3	Harry	Ford	C
11	15	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF (Corner)
12	7	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
13	22	Yeremy	Cabrera	OF (corner)
14	11	Coy	James	SS
15	13	Landon	Harmon	RHP (Starter)
16	10	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
17	14	Sam	Peterson	OF (CF)
18	16	Alejandro	Rosario	RHP
19	20	Marconi	German	SS
20	18	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
21	30	Riley	Cornelio	RHP (Starter)
22	19	Yohandy	Morales	3B
23	12	Angel	Feliz	SS/3B
24	21	Caleb	Lomavita	C
25	23	Samil	Serrano	OF (Corner)
26	25	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
27	29	Yoel	Tejeda Jr.	RHP (Starter)
28	40+	Cayden	Wallace	2B/3B
29	37	Davian	Garcia	RHP (Starter)
30	17	Andrew	Pinckney	OF (Corner)

Here we go. Any stats are as of 5/18/26.

• Willits stays top, as he should. He’s slashing .270/.412/.440 for the season in Low-A when, had he been a normal kid, would be finishing off his High School regular season. He’s also got 24 steals in the first 36 games of the season, on pace to hit a century of SBs (which would have led the entire minor leagues in 2025). No notes.
• Susana stays #2 despite no appearances and no real timeframe for his return. The latest news as of May 5th was that he was “continuing his throwing program.” I mean, ok? it was a Lat surgery, not an arm/shoulder, so that’s one thing. But I was not expecting him to miss months of 2026.
• Ronny Cruz is everyone’s new favorite Nats prospect, and BA gives him major props, moving him from #26 in January to #3 now. Cruz was in the Mike Soroka deal last trade deadline, coming over along with Christian Franklin in a classic “one established prospect and one lottery ticket” trade. Well, that lottery ticket is looking like it’s hitting the Powerball for sure right now.
• Seaver King now in the top 5 as he has a monster slash line right now in AA (.336/.427/.562). It seems like it’s just a matter of time before he gets moved up; the guy playing SS in AAA right now is Trey Lipscomb, who unfortunately seems to have peaked as not even a “4-A guy” having already been outrighted off the 40-man. The “story” on King is that someone in the Nats player development staff tried to get him to “pull the ball in the air more” last year (according to Keith Law), and it took until the AFL for him to get back on track. I hope whoever this Nats PD guy was, is no longer. There remains disagreement in the pundits about just how “good” his defense is (Law says “plus-plus defender” while Longenhagen has him as a 30 grade defender right now … i’m not sure who’s not seeing what the other is seeing here).
• Devin Fitz-Gerald has not shied away from the aggressive promotion to High-A, and is crushing the ball in a pitcher’s park/pitcher’s league. He’s slashing .307/.423/.650 with 11 homers as a 20-year old. He’s played mostly 2B thanks to Angel Feliz’s presence in Wilmington, but has starts at SS and 3B this season. He’s one of 5 prospects we got in the Gore trade, and is the clear leader in the clubhouse for value in that trade. He’s not blocked in AA at all (2B currently manned by a MLFA in Kevin Pichardo, and the guys on the AA infield bench are org-guys who i’m surprised are still in the system).
• Gavin Fein has slipped down a bit from January thanks to a wrist injury that cost him most of April. Jury still out, but he’s just turned 19 so hard to criticize. He’s listed as a SS but has thus far only played RF for Low-A; I wonder if he moves back to the dirt with some coming mid-season promotions (Willits can’t stay in Fredericksburg all year, can he?)
• The next big riser after Cruz is Sime, going from #24 to #9. 44 Ks in 21 innings will do that for you, as will the 101mph fastball he used to strike out J.J. Wetherholt in the Spring Breakout game. Same Wetherholt who was a top-5 prospect in the entire minors and who just got called up. Big arm, big velocity, but not a big track record so far for managing his pitch counts; he’s got 8 starts but just 21 total innings as he is struggling to keep the ball in the strike zone.
• Harry Ford’s awful start has him drop from #3 to #10 on BAs’ list. I had him #2 before the season and that’s aging like … well not aging well at all.
• Petry has earned a jump up the board with a nifty 3/4/5 slash line … he should get promoted ASAP frankly. In fact, AA Harrisburg just put their starting 1B Sam Brown on the DL, so there’s a natural spot open for Petry to get moved up, perhaps by the time you read this since i’m writing this on the monday off-day for the Minors that serves as a nice little promotion travel day for guys.
• Clemmey’s ugly start (28 walks in 28 innings) has dropped him a bit down the board. Every time I write about him I remind people of his age (he’s 20 in AA), but that’s only going to tell part of the story. There’s something missing here in 2026.
• The third major riser in these ranks is Yeremy Cabrera. He absolutely torched Low-A for a month to earn a promotion to High-A. I thought perhaps his promotion would spell the end of the strikeout machine Elijah Green, but they’re still sharing the OF in High-A for now. He’s the 3rd of 5 prospects in the Gore trade, which is looking more and more like a steal the better these guys play.
• Luke Dickerson, despite some decent numbers (an .815 OPS) and others not so decent (45 Ks in 36 games) drops a bit on BA’s list to #16.
• Jackson Kent drops a couple of slots, mostly due to getting layered by the likes of Cruz/Sime/Cabrera, but he’s a sneaky solid prospect putting up very solid numbers in AA right now: 2.35 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .176 BAA, and a 38/8 K/BB ratio in 30 innings. Maybe we’re looking at the next Andrew Alvarez or Mitchell Parker for the system: an unheralded lefty starter who dominates all the way up while getting little top-prospect buzz until suddenly he’s in the majors.
• Some love for Cornelio, putting him at #21 in recognition of his ascent to the majors. Remember guys … that’s the whole point of prospects! To get them to the majors so they contribute.
• Amazingly … Yohandy Morales was ranked #19 in January and is now #22 on this list. Reminder: his AAA slash line right now is .348/.435/.589. And he plays on the dirt. How is this production DROPPING his prospect ranking? He’s 24! in AAA! Where he’s been since May 23rd of last year. Did Morales like insult the mothers of all these prospect evaluators in the industry? Morales is one injury away from someone like Garcia or Mead from getting added to the 40-man and probably playing every day in the majors. In fact, if the team was smart right now they’d move Garcia back to 2B (where Nunez has a 53 OPS+ figure) and would put Morales into the 1B/DH carousel.
• We mentioned Angel Feliz as being the one who’s blocking Fitz-Gerald from playing his natural SS position; BA doesn’t like Feliz’ start to the season and has dumped him more than 10 spots. Interesting; he’s not hitting THAT bad (.243/.335/.371) to warrant such a precipitous drop.
• Cayden Wallace is the sole player outside the top 40 from January who’s back into the top 30 today, thanks to his excellent start to 2026. He’s slashing .276/.345/.546 with a ton of homers and playing primarily 3B. He’s kind of blocked from moving up (Glasser at 2B and Morales at 3B in AAA), but could see a move if we see a cascading set of promotions that sees Morales head to MLB.
• Davian Garcia is a bit of a divisive prospect, but has moved up 10 spots since January despite somewhat iffy AA numbers to start the season. His ERA is ok at 3.90 but he’s walking nearly a batter an inning and his whip is 1.66.

Here’s the list of players that BA ranked somewhere in the 27-40 range in January who are no longer in the top 30:

• Linan & McGarry: traded and released
• Christian Franklin: was #27 now probably in the low 30s. He’s not really any different from where he was last year; kind of the 7th man on a 7-man OF depth chart on the current 40-man roster, and not really doing anything to improve his lot on life right now in AAA.
• Alvarez was at #31; probably at the same relative spot now.
• Glasser: was #32 but is putting up just a .583 OPS figure in AAA right now playing mostly 2B. He certainly earned his promotion to Rochester and started out last year great, but not much since.
• Others in that 30-40 range include DSL types like De la Cruz, Cortesia, injured arms like Swan and Stuart, and the bonus baby Vaquero, who’s got a mid .500 OPS in High-A.

Highest player I ranked who’s nowhere to be found on either Jan or May 2026 BA list?

• Josh Randall: 4.86 ERA in high-A, but his peripherals make him look a little better. I had him #29 on my list, odds are i’d re rank him 10 spots lower right now.
• Albimec Ortiz, who is on the 40-man and is doing 1B/DH duties in AAA. He’s closer to a DFA than he is to a promotion and this ranking looks terrible just 6 weeks into the season.
• Rafael Ramirez Jr, who was kind of the forgotten prospect in the Lane Thomas trade nearly 2 years ago, has been toiling in the shadow of all our more heralded prospects in Low-A. He can play anywhere on the infield but has struggled to get onto the field ahead of Willits, James, and Dickerson (and not to mention Fein, who’s been relegated to RF to get playing time). Even given that, his numbers are solid so far this year: .269/.432/.433 with more walks than Ks. Maybe we need a promotion to get him more PT.
• Kevin Bazzell is back to producing; the catcher in High-A has a .827 OPS so far this year. Unfortunately, he’s completely blocked upstream, with Ford in AAA and Lomavita in AA requiring full-time play.
• Daniel Hernandez joins three other 2025 IFA guys who are ranked prospects (German, De la Cruz, and Cortesia) in the FCL league that just started. We finally get to see some domestic production from the four best players from that class right now.

With the benefit of all the other pro pundits, all the off-season moves, and really trying not to have April stats color my opinions too much, here’s my “104 ranked prospects” for the system.

When I did this at the end of the 2025 season, I got lots of good feedback that i had some guys way too high or low. Hopefully I’m not so drastically off this time around as well. I went 125 deep at the end of 2025, which seems crazy. how did I get back to 104? Well, since the Sept post we’ve lost 33 of those 125 players:

• 2 were traded (Bennett, Linan,
• 15 became MLFAs and left the system; highest one was Nick Schnell in the low 30s.
• 2 were DFA’d and got claimed/Traded (Brzycky, Eder)
• 2 were released to pursue other opps or by their request (Lao, Baker)
• 12 were outright released; these are the embarrassing ones; how do you rank a guy who the team flat out released? The highest ranked release I had ranked in Sept 2025 was Armando Cruz, who I had ranked 57th basically clinging to the $3.9M the team wasted on him in 2021.

But, we’ve also added 12 players in the off-season who are now somewhere in the top 100:

• 4 2026 IFA signings, the highest of which is Serrano at #37.
• 8 prospects acquired in trade, including four of our top 10 in Ford, Fien, Perales, and Fitz-Gerald.

125-33+12 = exactly 104, and that’s exactly how many I’ve ranked in this iteration.

Nonetheless, posting this a week into May seems dumb, and next year i’ll do a better job of posting this before the season starts and won’t wait for Fangraphs’ ranking to finish. I’m basically posting this now so the work doesn’t go to waste.

Here’s my full list as it stands today:

TB rank	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	Harry	Ford	C
3	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
5	Gavin	Fein	SS
6	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
7	Seaver	King	SS
8	Luis	Perales	RHP (Starter)
9	Devin	Fitz-Gerald	SS
10	Landon	Harmon	RHP (Starter)
11	Ronny	Cruz	SS
12	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
13	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF (Corner)
14	Coy	James	SS
15	Angel	Feliz	SS/3B
16	Yoel	Tejeda Jr.	RHP (Starter)
17	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
18	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP (Starter)
19	Davian	Garcia	RHP (Starter)
20	Yeremy	Cabrera	OF (corner)
21	Sam	Peterson	OF (CF)
22	Alejandro	Rosario	RHP
23	Marconi	German	SS
24	Eriq	Swan	RHP (Starter)
25	Christian	Franklin	OF (CF)
26	Caleb	Lomavita	C
27	Yohandy	Morales	3B
28	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
29	Josh	Randall	RHP (Starter)
30	Cayden	Wallace	2B/3B
31	Phillips	Glasser	SS
32	Andrew	Pinckney	OF (Corner)
33	Abimelec	Ortiz	1B/OF (Corner)
34	Riley	Cornelio	RHP (Starter)
35	Andrew	Alvarez	LHP (Starter)
36	Brayan	Cortesia	SS
37	Samil	Serrano	OF (Corner)
38	Sir Jamison	Jones	C
39	Rafael	Ramirez Jr.	SS
40	Kevin	Bazzell	C
41	Cristian	Vaquero	OF (CF)
42	Daniel	Hernandez	C
43	Nauris	De La Cruz	OF (Corner)
44	Isalas	Suarez	OF (CF)
45	Angel	Ramirez	OF (Corner)
46	Browm	Martinez	OF (CF)
47	Victor	Hurtado	OF (Corner)
48	Tyler	Stuart	RHP (Starter)
49	R.J.	Sales	RHP (Starter)
50	Clayton	Beeter	RHP (Reliever)
51	Dashyll	Tejeda	OF (CF)
52	Juan	Duran	OF (Corner)
53	Isaac	Lyon	RHP (Starter)
54	Robert	Cranz	RHP (Reliever)
55	Schultz	Thomas	RHP (Reliever)
56	Jose	Feliz	RHP (Starter)
57	Marquis	Grissom	RHP (Reliever)
58	Austin	Amaral	RHP (Reliever)
59	Liam	Sullivan	LHP (Starter)
60	T.J.	White	OF (Corner)
61	Randal	Diaz	SS/3B
62	Sam	Brown	OF (Corner)
63	Leuris	Portorreal	RHP (Starter)
64	Elijah	Nunez	OF (CF)
65	Brenner	Cox	OF (CF)
66	Johnathan	Thomas	OF (CF)
67	Tyler	Schoff	RHP (Reliever)
68	Erik	Tolman	LHP (Starter)
69	Andry	Lara	RHP (Starter)
70	Brayan	Romero	RHP (Starter)
71	Branden	Boissiere	OF (Corner)
72	Kevin	Made	SS
73	Elijah	Green	OF (CF)
74	Juan	Reyes	LHP (Starter)
75	Pablo	Aldonis	LHP (Reliever)
76	Orlando	Ribalta	RHP (Reliever)
77	Enmanuel	Carela	RHP (Starter)
78	Darrel	Lunar	RHP (Starter)
79	Adam	Bloebaum	RHP (Reliever)
80	Travis	Sthele	RHP (Starter)
81	Alexander	Meckley	RHP (Starter)
82	Merritt	Beeker	LHP (Reliever)
83	Bryan	Polanco	RHP (Starter)
84	Carlos	Tavares	1B/OF (Corner)
85	Greyson	Gimenez	RHP (Reliever)
86	Kyle	Luckham	RHP (Starter)
87	Luke	Johnson	RHP (Starter)
88	Holden	Powell	RHP (Reliever)
89	Max	Romero Jr.	C
90	Huff	Chance	RHP (Reliever)
91	Marcus	Brown	SS
92	Juan	Obispo	OF (CF)
93	Rony	Bello	2B/3B
94	Manuel	Cabrera	SS
95	Nick	Peoples	OF (Corner)
96	Mikey	Tepper	RHP (Starter)
97	Seth	Shuman	RHP (Reliever)
98	Gavin	Dugas	2B
99	Luke	Young	RHP (Reliever)
100	Jack	Sinclair	RHP (Reliever)
101	Elian	Soto	1B/OF (Corner)
102	Leodarlyn	Colon	RHP (Reliever)
103	Everett	Cooper	SS
104	Matt	Suggs	C

In the interests of not making this too long of a post, I’ll provide some commentary in batches of picks:

• 1-5: I’ve got the same top 5 as all pundits not named Longenhagen. Not much to note here. As we’ll discuss more later, with the benefit of April’s production there’d probably be different names in my top 5 now.
• 6-10: I’ve kept this a conventional list, so Clemmey and King remain high. I’m trusting that Perales is all that he’s been promised, and i’ve put our big dollar prep RHP Harmon right at #10 so that its consistent with most other shops ranking of him. King is making huge strides now, and probably moves into the top 5 in the next ranking along with Cruz (he was just named into BA’s latest top 100)
• 11-15: Ronny Cruz is going to start showing up on top 100 lists, so I’ve moved him to just outside the top 10 for now. If I was fully taking into account his April performance he’d be ranked 5th. I’ve also kept Dickerson here despite his 2025 struggles due to scouting reports remaining glowing, and have a couple of our younger stars in here as well.
• 16-20: four of the five end up being starters, including two guys in AA in Garcia and Kent who could be the part of the next crew of low-ceiling starters to push for the majors in the Irvin-Parker-Herz mold. Also, Sime has started incredibly hot and is looking nearly unhittable in Low-A; he’d be 10 spots higher taking April fully into account.
• 21-25: I’ve got a couple of injury-riddled starters here who might be higher in Rosario and Swan; i think people ranking Rosario anywhere in the top 20 are fools. Franklin remains here as the best of the AAA-addled corner OF we seem to have collected there this year.
• 26-30: Three college bats who have been much more heralded than they are now in Lomavita, Morales, and Wallace. I’ve given up fighting the Morales fight; he was #6 on my post-2025 list and honestly I have no defense of why i’ve pushed him this far down. Of course as I write this he’s raking in April in AAA so i’ll look like a fool when he heads to the majors and supplants Luis Garcia at 1B/DH. Randall’s AA debut looks great; he may be higher soon.
• 31-35 has two 4-A starters (Cornelio, Alvarez), and apparently two 4-A corner outfielders (Pinckney and Ortiz). They’re joined by Glasser, who may be our hitter of the year but will struggle to get any further in the system.
• 36-40 has a couple of DSL bonus-baby ranked players in Cortesia and Serrano; Serrano was our highest ranked 2026 IFA signing and is very well regarded by those in the know (Longenhagen had him #18). We also have two other pretty young players in Jones and Ramirez Jr here.
• 41-45: this is the range where we stick DSL types who have had one good season there, or who signed for big money but we just don’t know how good they will be. That includes Hernandez, De la Cruz, Suarez, and Rodriguez here.
• 46-50: Two injured arms who probably should be higher in Stuart and Sales, a solid reliever in Beeter who will be off these “prospect” lists soon, plus the $2.8M Hurtado who at least has made it to FCL in his 3rd pro year but needs to “do something” soon.
• 51-55: Three promising looking minor league relievers in Lyon, Cranz, and Schultz. Lyon is now leading the High-A roster and I continue to be amazed that we fetched both Ford and Lyon for a reliever with a 4.46 ERA last year (yes, I know he’s pitching better in 2026, but the point remains).
• 56-60: Three more relievers in Amaral, Grissom and Sullivan, plus TJ White, who has struggled for years but is finding his footing this year.
• 61-70: a hodge podge of players, including some failed starters and a MIA former top prospect in Cox who we now know is converting to be a pitcher after hitting sub .200 for three years in the low minors.
• 71-80 includes a couple of very high profile prospects who seem to be playing their way out in Made and Green, along with a few DSL starters who were solid in their first year and who might work their way up the ranks soon.
• 80-90: A couple of system starters in Meckley and Luckham, maybe they should be higher. We also have some hold-over starters here like Polanco and Johnson.
• 90-104: Backup catchers, backup middle infielders who used to be more heralded, and low-ceiling relievers.

A few more interesting tid bits:

• The highest player I have ranked who does not appear on a single other ranking list is 2026 IFA signing Juan Duran, who got $1m from us in January and who i’ve put at #52.
• The next three players on my list after Duran (Lyon, Cranz, and Schultz) also fail to appear on any other lists, likely b/c they’re essentially promising looking relievers who would never appear within a top 30 of a major shop.
• Pretty much everyone I have ranked about 75 only appears on my own ranking lists for the last couple of cycles. They’re ranked b/c they showed some promise, or earned promotions in the last couple of seasons. Mostly though, they’re “org guys” for now unless they blow it up and make a leap that hasn’t been really evident in their performances thus far.

With the beginning of May begins the Florida Complex League (FCL) competition, and the release of the official Nats FCL roster for 2026. As I keep the Big Board, I often put players without clear assignments in the Extended Spring Training (XST) column, when really they probably were always on the FCL roster throughout the off-season, as teams play it loose with the 165 minor league domestic player limit. As I write this, the Big Board shows 159 players total on the non-60 day/non-Restricted lists for all 5 of our domestic minor league teams, but during spring training with all the Non Roster Invitees (NRIs) that numbers welled to like 180 or so.

Anyway, even though FCL has been rained out its first two days (Florida in Springtime!) the rosters have been set, and there’s definitely some interesting information to be gleaned from what the FCL looks like to start 2026. Here’s some of those comments.

• Nats 2022 4th round prep draftee Brenner Cox is now a pitcher. After four years of hitting ineptitude in the low minors (including a combined .156/.249/.270 figure in 2025 between Low and High-A) the former outfielder is moving to the mound to see if he can make it work. I hope he resurrects his career.
• Both Elian Soto and Carlos Tavares are still listed as Outfielders. Soto played 1B in 39 of his 49 games last year, while Tavares was demoted back to FCL from Low-A last year, where he played 1B in 49 of his 55 games. I’ve kept both as 1B on the Big Board despite what the MILB.com rosters say.
• Soto and Tavares being in FCL creates a log-jam in the FCL infield, since they also have 1B/3B Manual Cabrera and 3B-only Luis Arias on the roster. Honestly, I’m surprised Tavares still is rostered after hitting just .153 in Low-A and getting moved back to the FCL at age 20. I’d guess they go Cabrera at 1B, Arias at 3B, Soto at DH, and Tavares on the bench.
• They’ve promoted essentially their projected starting Outfield from the DSL in Nauris De La Cruz, Browm Martinez, and Victor Hurtado. All three are promising prospects; Martinez came to us in the Rosario trade with the Yankees last year and immediately hit the DL, so we’ve yet to see him play.
• The two highest ranked prospects from the DSL last year (Marconi and Cortesia) also are here and should be the starting 2B and SS middle infield.
• There’s 4 catchers on the roster, including top prospect Daniel Hernandez. One of them is a recent 23-yr old MLFA in Brady Cerkownyk who probably should be on a dev list in Low-A but starts in West Palm Beach.
• Gavin Dugas is alive; he’s on the FCL roster rehabbing. He was a very old senior sign in 2023 and turns 26 in a few days .. he needs to push his way into AA at least this year.
• We will have an entirely new starting rotation from 2025’s season closing five of Feliz, Portorreal, Farias, Lunar, Johnson.
  • Portorreal was the opening day starter in Low-A
  • Farias was released at the end of March
  • Luke Johnson is doing tandem starts in Low-A
  • Both Feliz and Lunar are on the FCL 60-day DL (Lunar is full-season already, implying a major arm injury).
• Reading the tea-leaves of the arms they’ve promoted from FCL … they promoted exactly five pitchers, all of whom were either starters or long relievers on the 2025 DSL roster. I’d have to thus guess that these are going to be the 5 “starters” for FCL: De La Cruz, Lopez, Reyes, Robles, and Torrellas. This makes sense; 4 of these 5 finished the DSL season in their rotation and the fifth (Lopez) was probably the most effective long reliever on the team.
• There’s now an astonishing eight (8) MLFA signings on the FCL roster. There was not a single MLFA signing on the season-ending FSL roster last season; the roster was (save for one prospect received in trade) 100% in-house drafted or IFA signed players. That’s quite a turnaround in terms of roster management for this new organization.
• While doing the FCL roster work for the Big Board, I learned for the first time about one additional MLFA signings the team has made: Noah Dean was signed on 3/30/26. I continue to be amazed at how poorly the milb.com pages work with each other, and how poor of a job they do at keeping up with these transactions.
• Nearly all of these MLFAs are way too old for the FCL; one guy is 28 with AAA time (Shortridge). Clearly they’re part of the now-in-full-effect MLFA middle reliever churn that the team will be doing for the rest of the year, and I’d guess they’ll keep moving guys up and onward.
• Speaking of milb.com issues: I have just one remaining player in XST on the Big Board with all these moves: Jackson Ross. The 2024 9th rounder hit well at Low-A last year, not so much when he got promoted to Wilmington. Now we have no idea where he is: his last listed transaction was the May 2025 promotion to Wilmington. However, he’s not on the 2026 Wilmington Roster, isn’t on the FCL roster .. and is still listed as Active. If I had to guess, i’d guess Ross either voluntarily retired over the off-season or got released and the transaction didn’t get properly recorded. That’s happened more than a few times in my big Board administrative time. Maybe he’ll suddenly pop up on the Wilmington roster though; hope so, since he only got a season’s run with the team.
• I count 13 graduates from the DSL to the FCL:
  • 2 catchers Hernandez and Figueroa
  • 2 infielders Marconi and Cortesia
  • 4 Outfielders: De la Cruz, Hurtado, Martinez, Obispo
  • 5 Starters: De La Cruz, Lopez, Reyes, Robles, and Torrellas
• Coincidentally, this leaves (if I’ve got the board right) 38 players in the DSL counting the new 2026 IFA class. 19 arms and 19 position players, including 9 outfielders. I’d imagine we’ll see 8-10 cuts from the DSL roster before they start play.
• Players to watch: My highest ranked DSL prospects who got promoted are:
  • #23 Marconi German
  • #36 Brayan Cortesia
  • #42 Daniel Hernandez
  • #43 Nauris De la Cruz
  • #46 Browm Martinez
  • #47 Victor Hurtado
• Not one of these newly promoted ranked prospects is one of the projected starters, even though I ranked past 100 players. The two best arms coming up are probably Lopez and Reyes; the other three didn’t exactly light the DSL up last year, so we’ll see what happens.

Before we get too far away from May 1st … Here’s a one-month check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system.

I’ll be using my own personal top 20 to drive the rankings … which I’ll post soon.

Here’s a quick check in with our top prospects and a quick heat check on how they’re doing, plus notables ranked outside the top 20 worth mentioning. All stats were as of 5/1/25.

All the stats links I use are at my Nats Links page, which I visit every day for various reasons. I won’t repeat all the stats links and transactions pages and what not; just go to the LInks page.

• #1. Eli Willits SS, Low-A: Started slow, but raised his average 50 points in the last 10 games of April. Finished the month slashing .247/.377/.398 with 18 steals in 23 games while starting at Short a few months after turning 18. Can’t ask for much more than that. Temperature: heating up.
• #2. Henry Ford, C AAA: he has not had the best month. After not making the MLB team with the though that he’d get to play full-time in Rochester, he’s slashed .200/.288/.243 in 18 starts. he has too many strikeouts and almost no power (just 3 doubles in 70 ABs). Temperature: ice cold
• #3: Jarlin Susana, RHP (starter) AA: On the 60-day DL to open the season, so we won’t see him until at least June 1. Per the Nats injury report, the last time we got an update on his off-season Lat surgery was that in late march he was throwing on flat ground. I would hope he’s made progress since. Temperature: on ice.
• #4 Travis Sykora: RHP (starter) AA: likely out for the season to rehab his July 2025 TJ surgery, though on the injury report in Spring training he was throwing 3x/week on flat ground. Maybe he makes it back for a couple of starts in August, morelikely he goes to the AFL this off-season to get some game prep for 2027. Temperature: on ice.
• #5 Gavin Fien SS/3B, Low-A: played just four games into the season and was 2-for-17 before hitting the DL with an unknown injury. Google and AI don’t know either, guessing that its something related to his off-season bone-spur removal surgery and are calling it a “wrist injury” for this year. Guessing he’s back mid-May. Temperature: on ice.
• #6 Alex Clemmey, LHP (Starter) AA: Clemmey’s base numbers (2.95 ERA) are exposed by a ridiculously low BABIP and way too many walks (17 walks in 18 IP). Remember; he’s 20 and was the opening day starter in AA. I’m not going to crush him too much, but there’s some doubt creeping into some player evaluators on Clemmey’s future. Temperature: holding steady.
• #7 Seaver King, SS AA: King had a great month in Harrisburg, slashing .286/.400/.536 with 4 HRs and 20 RBI in the middle of the order. This is a huge improvement over his performance in AA last season, and he seems to be building off of his strong AFL. Cross your fingers, but having King flourish into a top prospect worthy of his draft stature would do a ton for this team. There’s nobody blocking him for a AAA move. Temperature: red hot.
• #8 Luis Perales, RHP (starter) AAA: Perales had a 4.42 ERA and a 1.20 whip and a .182 BAA for the month, which all sounds decent. But, he’s walking too many guys and his numbers are are masking a very low BABIP and his xFIP is through the roof. This “show-me” trade where they traded Jake Bennett even up for Perales is not aging well; Bennett had a 0.86 ERA in his 5 AAA starts and just got called up to the majors for Boston. Meanwhile Perales is the sole arm on the 40-man NOT to get called up in April. Not good. Temperature: cool
• #9 Devin Fitz-Gerald, SS, High-A: A very solid first month for Fitz-Gerald in the system: .293/.435/.511 with 3 homers and 10 SBs. He’s been playing primarily 2B thanks to multiple other SS prospects in High-A, and is blocked in AA by a higher ranked prospect in King, but if the team decides to make a slew of SS-only moves to do promotions, he could be in line if he keeps up this production. Temperature: Red Hot.
• #10 Landon Harmon, RHP (starter): Low-A: He has started off his pro career with a solid month: He doesn’t have massive K/9 figures but has been very solid with a 1.88 ERA, a sub-1.00 whip, and a .174 BAA. All three of those figures lead the team in Fredericksburg for those with more than a trivial number of IP. He’s been outshined a bit in the Low-A bullpen by his fellow 2025 prep draftee Sime, but don’t let that fool you; he’s doing great. Temperature: Hot.
• #11 Ronny Cruz: SS, High-A: Cruz is probably the minor league POTY so far, earning a promotion to High-A after just two weeks with a .333/.460/.627 line to open the season in Fredericksburg, and didn’t stop once he got to Wilmington with a .354/.436/.604 line since. The 19 yr old is showing both power and speed (6 hrs and 18 SBs so far), and is likely to be in the next iterations of the top 100 prospects in all of the minors when they start getting refreshed. Juan Soto made it to the majors at 19, as did Harper; can Cruz? Temperature: Red Hot.
• #12 Luke Dickerson, SS/CF Low-A: Slashed .261/.356/.523 for the month with a ton of extra-base power (10 doubles and 3 homers) and showing major positional flexibility (he’s played 2B,SS,3B and CF so far this season). This is a massive improvement over last year and I like what I see here. A middle infielder with this kind of power will play for sure. Temperature: Hot.
• #13: Ethan Petry, 1B High-A: Petry destroyed the ball in April, slashing .329/.454/.506 while splitting time between 1B and RF. We don’t exactly have a murderer’s row of outfielders playing AA right now, so I’d imagine he’s getting moved up soon since he’s repeating the level from the end of last season and is a seasoned collegiate hitter. Temperature: Red Hot.
• #14: Coy James, SS/3B, Low-A: struggled at the plate a bit with a .182/357/377 slash, but also showed some interesting promise with 4 homers and 11 SBs for the month. That kind of 20/20 split is something to look forward to, and it seems like he may be due for a stats rebound. Temperature: luke warm hopefully.
• #15: Angel Felix, SS High-A: struggled in April: .200/.307/.294. If you hit .200 you can’t have such a low slugging or else you’re just lineup fodder with no power potential. Temperature: cold.
• #16: Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (starter) High-A: 0-2 with 5.48 ERA, 1.57 whip. He’s walking way too many guys (15 BBs in 23 ip) and is struggling from a consistency perspective. Temperature: cold.
• #17: Jackson Kent, LHP (Starter) AA: 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA, 0.80 whip, and 17/4 K/BB in 13 innings. He’s not going deep into starts yet, but he’s got very solid numbers. He’s almost like this year’s version of Jake Bennett. Let’s see him going 5-6 innings per start with this production and look for a mid-season promotion. Temperature: very warm.
• #18: Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (starter): Low-A: well, you can’t ask for much more than his start: 32/11 K/BB in 14.2 IP in four tandem/3-inning starts to begin his pro career. That’s too many walks but you can’t argue with the K figures. Even if he continues to walk that many guys, he won’t be long in Low-A striking out more than 2/3rds of the hitters he faces. Temperature: red hot.
• #19: Davian Garcia, RHP (starter) AA; Garcia is looking like he may have been too aggressively pushed up this off-season; he’s got 18 walks and 15 K’s in 16ip so far with poor numbers across the board. If he continues with 5.00 ERA and 1.80 whip figures, he may get sent back to High-A. Temperature: cool.
• #20: Yeremy Cabrera CF low-A: Slash of .280/.427/.561 for Fredericksburg, part of a slew of hot hitters just down I-95 from Nats park. Another 20/20 guy showing both power and speed (4hrs and 13SBs). Temperature: red hot.

A quick reminder: we trade MacKenzie Gore for 3B Gavin Fien, 1B Abimelec Ortiz, SS Devin Fitz-Gerald, RHP Alejandro Rosario and CF Yeremy Cabrera. And I wondered if we got enough. If these top prospects continue to shine that trade is going to look like a steal. Especially with Gore struggling in his Texas debut a bit.

---

Notables #20 and above by the Level they started 2026:

in AAA:

• #27 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B is destroying AAA pitching right now: .341/.406/.518 for April. There’s not really any room for a 1B/DH guy at the MLB level right now, but at some point the team may fully cut ties with Luis Garcia or Curtis Mead and give Morales a shot.
• #32 Andrew Pinckney OF continues his solid AAA hitting: .282/.363/.493 in April. That’s nearly identical to his 2025 season slash line in AAA of .269/.348/.431. I’m trying to think of a comp for Pinckney; a player we had who produced in the minors for years w/o getting a shot then finally came up and killed it … maybe someone like Tanner Roark?
• #36 and #37 are Cornelio and Alvarez, who both have MLB call-ups and then got sent right back. If they were better arms, they’d be in the rotation instead of Mikolas and Littell … perhaps in a month.

In AA:

• #30 Cayden Wallace 3B/2B is absolutely destroying the ball in AA right now: .292/.379/.584 for the month. Six homers, a ton of extra base power, getting walks. He’s played mostly 3B, can play 2B (where he did most of last year making way for House). Thus he’s kind of blocked moving up due to Morales & Glasser. However, it’s great to see some major production from the former top 10 prospect.
• #71 Brandon Boissiere OF started the season super strong .289/383/.526 then did something really bad to himself, in that the team moved him to the 60-day DL on 4/28/26. He’s one of those guys who seemed to be ‘this close’ to getting released, but now we don’t know what to make of the situation.

In High-A:

• High-A is a weird roster to start; there’s the aformentioned Fitz-Gerald, Petry, Feliz and Tejeda, then there’s really a gap to the next best prospect on the roster. What High-A has a lot of are guys who used to be ranked highly but who have seen their stock fall: think Bazzell, Vaquero, White, and especially Green. That being said, looking for positives:
• #29 Josh Randall had a solid April on the mound: 2.70 ERA, 21/3 K/BB in 23innings and awesome peripherals 0.80 whip and.186 BAA. That’s promotional material.
• For the month: Elijah Green: 21 games and 84 ABs. Of those 84 ABs he struck out an astonishing 52 times. He’s averaging 2.5 strikeouts a game.

In Low-A:

• #81 Alexander Meckley RHP starter had a solid month: 2.18 ERA, 26/11 K/BB in 20ip.
• Unranked Jack Moroknek had nearly as good of a line at the plate as Ronny Cruz: .344/.456/.563. Lots of power, lots of walks. The 2025 11th rounder has started his pro career nicely.

We’re a month into the 2026 full seasons, believe it or not, so its time to bring back the monthly check-in on the rotations, from the MLB to DSL (once they start). This always ends up being one of the main posts I look forward to researching and writing each month, and we’ll continue the format from years’ past.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.

Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).

• Big Board, Draft Tracker, and IFA Tracker
• Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com, Nats MLB stats at fangraphs.com
• AAA Rochester stats at milb.com. AAA Rochester Stats at fangraphs.com
• AA Harrisburg stats at milb.com, AA Harrisburg Stats at fangraphs.com
• High-A Wilmington stats at milb.com, High-A Wilmington Stats at fangraphs.com
• Low-A Fredericksburg Stats at milb.com, Low-A Fredericksburg stats at fangraphs.com
• FCL Nationals Stats at milb.com (not yet started for 2026)
• DSL Nationals Pitching Stats at milb.com (not yet started for 2026)

All Stats quoted are as of 4/30/26’s games.

---

We’ll start with the Majors.

• Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
• End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin

Changes since end of last Month: Butera has been using Poulin as an “opener” for Mikolas, but technically he’s still the pitcher expected to go the most innings on that day in the rotation. Otherwise, the rotation has not changed for the first month of the season.

Rotation Observations: We have two solid starters in Griffin and Cavalli. Griffin is getting national attention for his start and is looking like a steal that may fetch a pretty penny at the trade deadline. Cavalli’s numbers are a bit deceiving (3.82 ERA and 1.66 whip) but his peripherals show us what’s really going on: a 2.84 FIP thanks to a ridiculous .419 BABIP he’s carrying right now. His walks are a bit high, but nothing he’s throwing is leaving the yard (just a 3.3 FB/HR percentage). Dare I say it? Cavalli is looking like the 1st rounder we’ve been waiting for, for years.

Irvin is about what we expected: a 5th starter quality guy who has good days and bad.

Then there’s the problem children. Mikolas and Littell are tied for the league lead in Earned Runs allowed so far, and every 4th flyball Littell throws ends up in the stands. Mikolas has been so bad that the manager has relied on an opener to get through the first inning AND AAA call-ups to mop up innings knowing that he can barely get through the order once. Littell is even worse: he’s got a FIP north of 9.00 … and that’s with a BABIP of .268! He’s actually set to get worse. The team has $7m tied up in Littell but just $2.25M in Mikolas, and he looks washed up. I think he gets another month, tops, before the 37-yr old is released.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Mikolas

Bullpen comments: Not great. When you open the season with a slew of MLFAs and waiver claims as your bullpen, you’re asking for trouble. Plus, the starters have been so bad that the bullpen has been taxed to the point were every single 40-man arm except Perales has been put to use … and we’re a month into the season. We’ve already lost Waldichuk for the year and our two best arms Beeter and Henry) are on the DL. This seems like its going to get bad, fast. The 3 arms in AAA available for call-up include Rutledge and Fernandez, who were awful in short MLB stints.

---

AAA Rochester

• Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
• End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)

Changes since end of last Month: Parker got the call-up and stuck, which necessitated the promotion of late-spring MLFA signing Champlain to move to AAA (where he probably should be anyway). Ogasawara came up for a couple spot starts to cover for when Alvarez and Cornelio covered innings in MLB, but he’s back in AA (where he probably should be).

Rotation Observations: Cornelio’s era/fip aren’t great but he’s got a 32/13 K/BB in 21IP. I’d expect this kind of swing and miss to get him the majors first amongst the 40-man starters. Lara and Champlain have probably been the most effective of the starters so far, with ERAs in the mid 3s, a 28/4 K/BB, and workable FIPs. That’s great news for Lara’s sake, in that he was DFA’d in January but didn’t get claimed; he seems like he’s earning his way back onto the 40-man and may get a chance sooner than later. Alvarez is experiencing a bit of a letdown after not making the MLB roster, but he’s on the 40-man and was pretty effective in his brief callup. Perales is walking too many guys, but remains the highest ranked prospect starter of the bunch. However, his middling numbers are masking a very low BABIP and his xFIP is through the roof.

Next guy to get promoted: I’d have to think Alvarez would be the next starter promoted if they needed it, but with Parker already up there they seem like they’ll continue to use Alvarez and Cornelio as they have; middle long relief. Maybe the team eventually cuts bait with both Mikolas and Littell and both Alvarez and Cornelio will get the call.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: none of these guys are pitching their way out of the rotation due to 40-man status or prospect status. The team has the least invested in MLFA Champlain, so if someone in AA really needed moving up, I’d guess Champlain would make way.

Bullpen comments: Yean and Gott are the two guys in the AAA bullpen with MLB experience who could get call-ups relatively easily, and both are pitching relatively well in AAA. Penrod has 14 walks and 14 strikeouts in 10 innings; that’s some Nuke Laloosh work right there. The rest of the bullpen in AAA are guys with ERAs in the 5-6 range; it’s ugly.

---

AA Harrisburg

• Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
• End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Kent
• Reminder of the AA Disabled List: Sykora, Susana, Rosario, Stuart, Swan

Changes since end of last Month: Swan got hurt and was replaced by Kent, but Ogasawara only managed to get one start in the month as he bounced up and back; the rest of the starts were openers/bullpen games started by relievers.

Rotation Observations: Clemmey’s base numbers (2.95 ERA) are exposed by a ridiculously low BABIP and way too many walks (17 walks in 18 IP). He’s young (he’s 20), and he’s still a prospect, but he’s just walking too many guys. Garcia is looking like he may have been too aggressively pushed up this off-season; he’s got 18 walks and 15 K’s in 16ip so far. Kent looks very solid in his first four starts, even if they were pretty short, and he continues to be an underrated starter prospect in the system. Luckham may have permanently established his ceiling as a pro; he’s been tried out in AAA twice now and has gotten shelled; now he’s 26 and in his 5th pro season.

Next guy to get promoted: Ogasawara has already been the guy who gets the first call up and would be again. After him, its probably Kent.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Luckham.

Bullpen comments: Connor Van Scoyoc has been effective in long relief and could slot in as a spot starter if need be. Luke Young is having a solid start to the season. Erick Mejia probably should be in AAA; not sure why he got dumped down to AA after finishing last season there. Holden Powell may be running out of time; he’s in his 6th pro season and is repeating AA for the fourth year.

---

High-A Wilmington

• Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
• End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon

Changes since end of last Month: Bruni was the opening day starter, but really only because Sullivan was apparently a late scratch that day. Sullivan was then sent down and replaced by the promoted Lyon. Bruni remains a LR but hasn’t started again.

Rotation Observations: Randall is the class of the group right now, with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.80 whip, and a 21/3 K/BB ratio. The 2024 3rd rounder was our bounty (along with the injured RJ Sales) for former closer Finnegan last year, and he’s already looking like he needs to be pushed to AA. Maddox is holding his own so far with decent if not spectacular numbers. Tejeda is walking too many guys and if he can clear that up he’ll have similar numbers to Maddox. Polanco is the oldest of the group and is getting shelled; he’s got a .338 BAA and has given up 6 homers in 17IP so far. That’s not good, especially since Wilmington is a pitcher’s park. Lyon has two starts but just 4 IP, so it seems like the team is still trying to figure out who their 5th starter is. They’ve got a couple of candidates on the 15day (Sthele and Tepper), so maybe one will come back soon.

Next guy to get promoted: Randall

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Polanco

Bullpen comments: Aldonis and Hill have been pitching the best out of the bullpen, but most of the High-A pen is getting shelled. Whips north of 1.6, and more than a few ERAs in the 8s and 9s. Six of the relievers in Wilmington were MLFAs or Rule5 draftees, thus brand new to this org and presumably grabbled due to a gap in our pitching development pipeline. Hopefully there’s reinforcements bubbling up from Low-A soon.

---

Low-A Fredericksburg

Note: Low-A has been doing mostly “tandem” starts, with each guy named going 3IP each night.

• Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
• End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan

Changes since end of last Month: The initial five “starters” have stayed relatively consistent, even if the “2nd guy in” has switched around slightly.

Rotation Observations: We’re seeing some really promising stuff out of Low-A right now. 2024 big-bonus prep kid Sime has exploded onto the scene with crazy K numbers: he’s got 32ks in 14IP. He’s also got 11 BBs in those 14Ip, so not all is great, but he’s only given up six hits in his first 5 starts. Harmon, our other 2024 big-money prep pitcher, doesn’t have 16 k/9 figures but has been very solid with a 1.88 ERA, a sub-1.00 whip, and a .174 BAA. There’s several other names here who have solid numbers to build on: Fischer and Meckley are the oldest of this group at 23 and 22 respectively and are showing signs that they’re close to solving the level. Portorreal is the only guy who doesn’t seem to be getting ‘tandemed” and he’s easily the worst of these starters: just 9 Ks in 18ip.

Next guy to get promoted: Meckley.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Portorreal

Bullpen comments: Jared Beck line for the month: 12IP, 19Ks 16 walks, 3 hits and a hilarious 0.81 BAA. Well, if you don’t throw it over the plate they can’t ever get a chance to hit it. I once walked 8 straight times to open a Babe Ruth season; my OBP remained north of .500 for basically the entire year as a result. Bryant Olsen another one: 21/10 K/BB in 11 innings. Sullivan is a weird one: he started the year in High-A, got demoted, and he’s fallen apart to the tune of an ERA in the 12s.

---

That’s it for April 2026.

It’s never too early to do a mock draft. Well, yes of course there is, but what’s the fun in that?

Here’s a smattering of super-early mock drafts and ranks that i’ve seen. I think these have value because they give you an idea of what the industry is hearing about the very top guys, plus we can see who’s highly ranked now but who may drop to the Nats #11 pick range (which has happened with us more than a few times to our great benefit, ahem, Anthony Rendon). These links run from December to the end of April.

For each mock i’ll list the top 5, then (if they go that deep) who they project to #11. I won’t repeat full names past first mention for space.

• MLBPipeline’s first mock Dec 2025: Roch Cholowosky, Grady Emerson, Justin Lebron, Drew Burress, Jacob Lombard. Nats at #11 take Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida 
• Baseball America’s first mock Dec 2025: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lebron, AJ Gracia (a 1B/OF from UVA), Derek Curiel. Nats at #11 take Ace Reese, 3B from Mississippi State.
• Bleacher Report first mock Feb 2026: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lebron, Burress, Curiel. Nats take Peterson.
• PrepBaseballReport 3/1/26 early mock: Cholowosky, Lebron, Lombard, Jackson Flora (UCSB rhp), Carson Bolman. Nats at #11 take Coleman Borthwick, a prep RHP/3B committed to Auburn.
• D1Baseball 3/5/36 Early march mock: (they use the above Prep Baseball Report mock data)
• Baseball America Mar 2026 mock 1.0 3/9/26: Cholowosky, Emerson, Lebron, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 take Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove (Miss.) HS
• BA Staff Draft 3/23/26: Cholowosky, Lebron, Emerson, Lombard, Van Lackey (fast-rising C from Ga Tech). Nats at #11 take AJ Gracia from UVA.
• BA Mock 2.0 4/13/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 get Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State. Big bat, projected pro 1B so has to keep hitting. Has been 5-6 in draft ranks in the class, but is a risk taking a non-premium position here. This pick also leaves leBron on the table, which is crazy to have said a month ago.
• BA Staff Draft 2.0 4/27/26: Cholowsky , Emerson, Flora, Lackey, Lombard. Nats at #11 get Drew Burress, OF from Georgia Tech. Burress was top 5 early in the cycle and has dropped a bit. Understandable: he’s “only” slashing .360/.484/.611 as of 4/27/26 with more walks than Ks. (sarcasm). In their draft we leave the likes of Curiel, Lebron, and Reese on the table.
• BA’s Top 400 Draft ranks 4/29/26; Ranks aren’t the same as mocks, but it is useful to see where BA ranks these players independent of team drafting proclivities. Their top 5: Cholosky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard, and #11 on their board is Drew Burress, so that’s relatively consistent with the BA staff draft.

Conclusions: Cholowsky is #1 on every single mock, without fail. Not one pundit has moved him off the top, and his performance so far in the college season has kept him there. The major name flying up the board this spring is Van Lackey, and it seems like he’s going #2 or #3. Nearly everyone has prep phenoms Emerson and Lombard in their top 5 as well. The top arm now seems to be Flora across the board.

Falling out of top-5 contention and now likely in the conversation for the Nats pick at #11 include Burress, Lebron, Gracia, and Curiel primarily. Also throw in there Tyler Bell and Liam Peterson, both college guys who were ranked higher but have had injury issues this year. If Mike Rizzo was still drafting, I would almost bet money on him taking Derek Curiel if he was here, just based on how “famous” he is (he was a 1st round talent out of HS before becoming perhaps the wealthiest NIL player in the country at LSU). But the new crew went prep-heavy in 2025 and may do so again in 2026.

I don’t really see any prep kids right in the 10-12 range on any of these mocks, and our new front office may be looking to go young again. One mock has us taking Eric Booth, but others have him ranked in the 6-10 range and going before he drops to us. If you want to see who the highest ranked Prep kids are by BA, here’s that list. It goes Emerson, Booth, Lombard, relatively big gap, then Spangler (who has a strong commit to Stanford) and a LHP out of florida named Rojas who’ll be 19 at the draft and is a Miami commit. Neither of those seem like Nats guys, not when there’ll be a slew of college players that make sense. But, if they get slot savings at #11 on someone like Rojas who is ranked in the teens, that lets them throw money in later rounds at prep kids who have slipped, which is how we ended up with the likes of Harmon, Sime, James, Fitz-Gerald, Fien, Jones, etc.