Nationals Arm Race

We’re a month into the 2026 full seasons, believe it or not, so its time to bring back the monthly check-in on the rotations, from the MLB to DSL (once they start). This always ends up being one of the main posts I look forward to researching and writing each month, and we’ll continue the format from years’ past.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.

Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).

• Big Board, Draft Tracker, and IFA Tracker
• Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com, Nats MLB stats at fangraphs.com
• AAA Rochester stats at milb.com. AAA Rochester Stats at fangraphs.com
• AA Harrisburg stats at milb.com, AA Harrisburg Stats at fangraphs.com
• High-A Wilmington stats at milb.com, High-A Wilmington Stats at fangraphs.com
• Low-A Fredericksburg Stats at milb.com, Low-A Fredericksburg stats at fangraphs.com
• FCL Nationals Stats at milb.com (not yet started for 2026)
• DSL Nationals Pitching Stats at milb.com (not yet started for 2026)

All Stats quoted are as of 4/30/26’s games.

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We’ll start with the Majors.

• Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
• End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin

Changes since end of last Month: Butera has been using Poulin as an “opener” for Mikolas, but technically he’s still the pitcher expected to go the most innings on that day in the rotation. Otherwise, the rotation has not changed for the first month of the season.

Rotation Observations: We have two solid starters in Griffin and Cavalli. Griffin is getting national attention for his start and is looking like a steal that may fetch a pretty penny at the trade deadline. Cavalli’s numbers are a bit deceiving (3.82 ERA and 1.66 whip) but his peripherals show us what’s really going on: a 2.84 FIP thanks to a ridiculous .419 BABIP he’s carrying right now. His walks are a bit high, but nothing he’s throwing is leaving the yard (just a 3.3 FB/HR percentage). Dare I say it? Cavalli is looking like the 1st rounder we’ve been waiting for, for years.

Irvin is about what we expected: a 5th starter quality guy who has good days and bad.

Then there’s the problem children. Mikolas and Littell are tied for the league lead in Earned Runs allowed so far, and every 4th flyball Littell throws ends up in the stands. Mikolas has been so bad that the manager has relied on an opener to get through the first inning AND AAA call-ups to mop up innings knowing that he can barely get through the order once. Littell is even worse: he’s got a FIP north of 9.00 … and that’s with a BABIP of .268! He’s actually set to get worse. The team has $7m tied up in Littell but just $2.25M in Mikolas, and he looks washed up. I think he gets another month, tops, before the 37-yr old is released.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Mikolas

Bullpen comments: Not great. When you open the season with a slew of MLFAs and waiver claims as your bullpen, you’re asking for trouble. Plus, the starters have been so bad that the bullpen has been taxed to the point were every single 40-man arm except Perales has been put to use … and we’re a month into the season. We’ve already lost Waldichuk for the year and our two best arms Beeter and Henry) are on the DL. This seems like its going to get bad, fast. The 3 arms in AAA available for call-up include Rutledge and Fernandez, who were awful in short MLB stints.

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AAA Rochester

• Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
• End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)

Changes since end of last Month: Parker got the call-up and stuck, which necessitated the promotion of late-spring MLFA signing Champlain to move to AAA (where he probably should be anyway). Ogasawara came up for a couple spot starts to cover for when Alvarez and Cornelio covered innings in MLB, but he’s back in AA (where he probably should be).

Rotation Observations: Cornelio’s era/fip aren’t great but he’s got a 32/13 K/BB in 21IP. I’d expect this kind of swing and miss to get him the majors first amongst the 40-man starters. Lara and Champlain have probably been the most effective of the starters so far, with ERAs in the mid 3s, a 28/4 K/BB, and workable FIPs. That’s great news for Lara’s sake, in that he was DFA’d in January but didn’t get claimed; he seems like he’s earning his way back onto the 40-man and may get a chance sooner than later. Alvarez is experiencing a bit of a letdown after not making the MLB roster, but he’s on the 40-man and was pretty effective in his brief callup. Perales is walking too many guys, but remains the highest ranked prospect starter of the bunch. However, his middling numbers are masking a very low BABIP and his xFIP is through the roof.

Next guy to get promoted: I’d have to think Alvarez would be the next starter promoted if they needed it, but with Parker already up there they seem like they’ll continue to use Alvarez and Cornelio as they have; middle long relief. Maybe the team eventually cuts bait with both Mikolas and Littell and both Alvarez and Cornelio will get the call.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: none of these guys are pitching their way out of the rotation due to 40-man status or prospect status. The team has the least invested in MLFA Champlain, so if someone in AA really needed moving up, I’d guess Champlain would make way.

Bullpen comments: Yean and Gott are the two guys in the AAA bullpen with MLB experience who could get call-ups relatively easily, and both are pitching relatively well in AAA. Penrod has 14 walks and 14 strikeouts in 10 innings; that’s some Nuke Laloosh work right there. The rest of the bullpen in AAA are guys with ERAs in the 5-6 range; it’s ugly.

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AA Harrisburg

• Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
• End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Kent
• Reminder of the AA Disabled List: Sykora, Susana, Rosario, Stuart, Swan

Changes since end of last Month: Swan got hurt and was replaced by Kent, but Ogasawara only managed to get one start in the month as he bounced up and back; the rest of the starts were openers/bullpen games started by relievers.

Rotation Observations: Clemmey’s base numbers (2.95 ERA) are exposed by a ridiculously low BABIP and way too many walks (17 walks in 18 IP). He’s young (he’s 20), and he’s still a prospect, but he’s just walking too many guys. Garcia is looking like he may have been too aggressively pushed up this off-season; he’s got 18 walks and 15 K’s in 16ip so far. Kent looks very solid in his first four starts, even if they were pretty short, and he continues to be an underrated starter prospect in the system. Luckham may have permanently established his ceiling as a pro; he’s been tried out in AAA twice now and has gotten shelled; now he’s 26 and in his 5th pro season.

Next guy to get promoted: Ogasawara has already been the guy who gets the first call up and would be again. After him, its probably Kent.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Luckham.

Bullpen comments: Connor Van Scoyoc has been effective in long relief and could slot in as a spot starter if need be. Luke Young is having a solid start to the season. Erick Mejia probably should be in AAA; not sure why he got dumped down to AA after finishing last season there. Holden Powell may be running out of time; he’s in his 6th pro season and is repeating AA for the fourth year.

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High-A Wilmington

• Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
• End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon

Changes since end of last Month: Bruni was the opening day starter, but really only because Sullivan was apparently a late scratch that day. Sullivan was then sent down and replaced by the promoted Lyon. Bruni remains a LR but hasn’t started again.

Rotation Observations: Randall is the class of the group right now, with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.80 whip, and a 21/3 K/BB ratio. The 2024 3rd rounder was our bounty (along with the injured RJ Sales) for former closer Finnegan last year, and he’s already looking like he needs to be pushed to AA. Maddox is holding his own so far with decent if not spectacular numbers. Tejeda is walking too many guys and if he can clear that up he’ll have similar numbers to Maddox. Polanco is the oldest of the group and is getting shelled; he’s got a .338 BAA and has given up 6 homers in 17IP so far. That’s not good, especially since Wilmington is a pitcher’s park. Lyon has two starts but just 4 IP, so it seems like the team is still trying to figure out who their 5th starter is. They’ve got a couple of candidates on the 15day (Sthele and Tepper), so maybe one will come back soon.

Next guy to get promoted: Randall

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Polanco

Bullpen comments: Aldonis and Hill have been pitching the best out of the bullpen, but most of the High-A pen is getting shelled. Whips north of 1.6, and more than a few ERAs in the 8s and 9s. Six of the relievers in Wilmington were MLFAs or Rule5 draftees, thus brand new to this org and presumably grabbled due to a gap in our pitching development pipeline. Hopefully there’s reinforcements bubbling up from Low-A soon.

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Low-A Fredericksburg

Note: Low-A has been doing mostly “tandem” starts, with each guy named going 3IP each night.

• Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
• End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan

Changes since end of last Month: The initial five “starters” have stayed relatively consistent, even if the “2nd guy in” has switched around slightly.

Rotation Observations: We’re seeing some really promising stuff out of Low-A right now. 2024 big-bonus prep kid Sime has exploded onto the scene with crazy K numbers: he’s got 32ks in 14IP. He’s also got 11 BBs in those 14Ip, so not all is great, but he’s only given up six hits in his first 5 starts. Harmon, our other 2024 big-money prep pitcher, doesn’t have 16 k/9 figures but has been very solid with a 1.88 ERA, a sub-1.00 whip, and a .174 BAA. There’s several other names here who have solid numbers to build on: Fischer and Meckley are the oldest of this group at 23 and 22 respectively and are showing signs that they’re close to solving the level. Portorreal is the only guy who doesn’t seem to be getting ‘tandemed” and he’s easily the worst of these starters: just 9 Ks in 18ip.

Next guy to get promoted: Meckley.

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Portorreal

Bullpen comments: Jared Beck line for the month: 12IP, 19Ks 16 walks, 3 hits and a hilarious 0.81 BAA. Well, if you don’t throw it over the plate they can’t ever get a chance to hit it. I once walked 8 straight times to open a Babe Ruth season; my OBP remained north of .500 for basically the entire year as a result. Bryant Olsen another one: 21/10 K/BB in 11 innings. Sullivan is a weird one: he started the year in High-A, got demoted, and he’s fallen apart to the tune of an ERA in the 12s.

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That’s it for April 2026.

It’s never too early to do a mock draft. Well, yes of course there is, but what’s the fun in that?

Here’s a smattering of super-early mock drafts and ranks that i’ve seen. I think these have value because they give you an idea of what the industry is hearing about the very top guys, plus we can see who’s highly ranked now but who may drop to the Nats #11 pick range (which has happened with us more than a few times to our great benefit, ahem, Anthony Rendon). These links run from December to the end of April.

For each mock i’ll list the top 5, then (if they go that deep) who they project to #11. I won’t repeat full names past first mention for space.

• MLBPipeline’s first mock Dec 2025: Roch Cholowosky, Grady Emerson, Justin Lebron, Drew Burress, Jacob Lombard. Nats at #11 take Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida 
• Baseball America’s first mock Dec 2025: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lebron, AJ Gracia (a 1B/OF from UVA), Derek Curiel. Nats at #11 take Ace Reese, 3B from Mississippi State.
• Bleacher Report first mock Feb 2026: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lebron, Burress, Curiel. Nats take Peterson.
• PrepBaseballReport 3/1/26 early mock: Cholowosky, Lebron, Lombard, Jackson Flora (UCSB rhp), Carson Bolman. Nats at #11 take Coleman Borthwick, a prep RHP/3B committed to Auburn.
• D1Baseball 3/5/36 Early march mock: (they use the above Prep Baseball Report mock data)
• Baseball America Mar 2026 mock 1.0 3/9/26: Cholowosky, Emerson, Lebron, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 take Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove (Miss.) HS
• BA Staff Draft 3/23/26: Cholowosky, Lebron, Emerson, Lombard, Van Lackey (fast-rising C from Ga Tech). Nats at #11 take AJ Gracia from UVA.
• BA Mock 2.0 4/13/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 get Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State. Big bat, projected pro 1B so has to keep hitting. Has been 5-6 in draft ranks in the class, but is a risk taking a non-premium position here. This pick also leaves leBron on the table, which is crazy to have said a month ago.
• BA Staff Draft 2.0 4/27/26: Cholowsky , Emerson, Flora, Lackey, Lombard. Nats at #11 get Drew Burress, OF from Georgia Tech. Burress was top 5 early in the cycle and has dropped a bit. Understandable: he’s “only” slashing .360/.484/.611 as of 4/27/26 with more walks than Ks. (sarcasm). In their draft we leave the likes of Curiel, Lebron, and Reese on the table.
• BA’s Top 400 Draft ranks 4/29/26; Ranks aren’t the same as mocks, but it is useful to see where BA ranks these players independent of team drafting proclivities. Their top 5: Cholosky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard, and #11 on their board is Drew Burress, so that’s relatively consistent with the BA staff draft.

Conclusions: Cholowsky is #1 on every single mock, without fail. Not one pundit has moved him off the top, and his performance so far in the college season has kept him there. The major name flying up the board this spring is Van Lackey, and it seems like he’s going #2 or #3. Nearly everyone has prep phenoms Emerson and Lombard in their top 5 as well. The top arm now seems to be Flora across the board.

Falling out of top-5 contention and now likely in the conversation for the Nats pick at #11 include Burress, Lebron, Gracia, and Curiel primarily. Also throw in there Tyler Bell and Liam Peterson, both college guys who were ranked higher but have had injury issues this year. If Mike Rizzo was still drafting, I would almost bet money on him taking Derek Curiel if he was here, just based on how “famous” he is (he was a 1st round talent out of HS before becoming perhaps the wealthiest NIL player in the country at LSU). But the new crew went prep-heavy in 2025 and may do so again in 2026.

I don’t really see any prep kids right in the 10-12 range on any of these mocks, and our new front office may be looking to go young again. One mock has us taking Eric Booth, but others have him ranked in the 6-10 range and going before he drops to us. If you want to see who the highest ranked Prep kids are by BA, here’s that list. It goes Emerson, Booth, Lombard, relatively big gap, then Spangler (who has a strong commit to Stanford) and a LHP out of florida named Rojas who’ll be 19 at the draft and is a Miami commit. Neither of those seem like Nats guys, not when there’ll be a slew of college players that make sense. But, if they get slot savings at #11 on someone like Rojas who is ranked in the teens, that lets them throw money in later rounds at prep kids who have slipped, which is how we ended up with the likes of Harmon, Sime, James, Fitz-Gerald, Fien, Jones, etc.

We finally get the last major pundit chiming in on the state of our system’s prospects, on this 24th day of April 2026. Eric Longenhagen and his Fangraphs crew have published their top 41 for the system. They are the last of the major pundits I track (Baseball America, MLBpipeline, Keith Law, Kiley McDaniel) plus more fringe prospect shops (Prospects1500, Prospects361, ProspectsLive, and BaseballProspectus, which hides everything behind a paywall i’m not willing to buy).

With this data, we have a complete set of “pre-2026 season” rankings for the system, and I will now work on my own such ranking. I published a top 125 at the end of last season, which had a few players ranked wildly out of place in retrospect, plus we’ve added at least 14 prospects who will feature in the top 50 or so and have released/traded at least 8-10 others who I ranked at the time, so I’ll work on a re-rank and see where things land. Ranking 125 guys out of a system that has 165 players domestically and another 30-40 in the DSL, 95% of whom won’t ever even get to Florida, may seem like a fools errand, but hey, this is what we do 🙂

Here’s the Fangraphs top 41 for our system, which seems like an odd number but is driven by the total number of our prospects who Longenhagen determines to have a Future Value (FV) of 35+ or more (FV runs on the typical scouting 20-80 scale, and anyone 50 or above is projected to be at least an “Average Everyday Player.” We’re projected to have just five of these players out of this top 41, which may temper your opinion of the system).

Fangraphs	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
3	Harry	Ford	C
4	Ronny	Cruz	SS
5	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
6	Alejandro	Rosario	RHP
7	Landon	Harmon	RHP (Starter)
8	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP (Starter)
9	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
10	Devin	Fitz-Gerald	SS
11	Davian	Garcia	RHP (Starter)
12	Luis	Perales	RHP (Starter)
13	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
14	Gavin	Fein	SS
15	Yoel	Tejeda Jr.	RHP (Starter)
16	Nauris	De La Cruz	OF (Corner)
17	Isalas	Suarez	OF (CF)
18	Samil	Serrano	OF (Corner)
19	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
20	Abimelec	Ortiz	1B/OF (Corner)
21	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF (Corner)
22	Riley	Cornelio	RHP (Starter)
23	Sir Jamison	Jones	C
24	Caleb	Lomavita	C
25	Seaver	King	SS
26	Coy	James	SS
27	Marconi	German	SS
28	Eriq	Swan	RHP (Starter)
29	Christian	Franklin	OF (CF)
30	Yeremy	Cabrera	OF (corner)
31	R.J.	Sales	RHP (Starter)
32	Josh	Randall	RHP (Starter)
33	Andry	Lara	RHP (Starter)
34	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
35	Angel	Ramirez	OF (Corner)
36	Kevin	Bazzell	C
37	Angel	Feliz	SS/3B
38	Brayan	Cortesia	SS
39	Daniel	Hernandez	C
40	Jose	Feliz	RHP (Starter)
41	Sam	Brown	OF (Corner)

Phew. There’s a lot to talk about here. I’d say at least a third of these players are ranked completely at odds with the entire rest of the industry. So, how did we get here, and what does it mean? Well, Longenhagen’s FV driven rankings is almost entirely about Ceiling, so you’re going to see teenagers who are performing ranked well higher in his methodology than you might see elsewhere, where pundits take a more balanced floor/ceiling/age approach. I’ll call out the outliers as we go.

• 1-2-3 Willits-Susana-Ford is mostly unassailable. You can quibble about not having Sykora higher, but basically every other shop has the exact same top 5 right now (these 3 plus Sykora and Fein).
• Ronny Cruz at #4. that’s crazy high; most others have him in the mid 20s if at all. Prophetic? he’s already been promoted to High-A at age 19 and showed up there and hit 2 more homers in his first three games, likely pushing Angel Feliz off Short for now.
• Rosario at #6 is also well above where anyone else has him, and I really don’t get this ranking. He didn’t pitch in 2023 after getting drafted. Sure, he looked awesome in his 2024 pro debut as he should have; he was a 3-year starter in Miami’s rotation pitching in A-ball. The problem is this: he missed all of 2025 with injury, gets traded, and THEN gets Tommy John. So he’ll miss all of 2026 and may not be ready for 2027. How is that possibly the 6th best prospect in our system? He’s going to be Rule-5 eligible this coming December with a grand total of 88 pro innings!
• He’s got Sime way higher than others, but from what we’ve seen so far in Fredericksburg this may be warranted (23 Ks in 11 innings). Sime sits right behind Harmon, who has also come out of the gate shining for F-burg.
• Jackson Kent at #9. Ok, so I like Kent, and I think his numbers aren’t flattering his capabilities so far, but top 10 in the system? For a command and control lefty? Seems high.
• He’s clearly high man on Davian Garcia at #11, who surprisingly made the AA rotation to start 2026 after barely pitching in Wilmington. Maybe there’s something to Longenhagen’s madness.
• He loves Sir Jamison Jones … who has been kind of forgotten with the Willits draft, all the other HS guys pouring in, and all the trade acquisitions. But he’s holding down the fort as starting Catcher in Low-A with all these other teenagers, which must make for a fun time on the bus rides.
• He’s got two 2026 IFA signings in his top 20 (Suarez and Serrano). Hard to pass judgement here, other than to say that Longenhagen is probably the most plugged-in guy to the DR scene.

We’ve talked about nothing but elevated prospects so far. Well, for all the guys above who are super high, there had to be guys who got knocked down.

• Gavin Fein; Top 5 on every other board and as high as #2 on Keith Law’s board … is #14 here. Interesting. He struggled in his pro debut last year, got traded, then immediately got hurt for us, with little idea of how bad it is. We know he had off-season surgery on a bone spur, which can explain his pro debut crummy numbers; is this a follow-on injury? Nobody knows.
• Alex Clemmey: What the heck is he doing at #18? Ok, so no he can’t find the plate right now, but he’s a 20yr old in AA for the second year in a row. If he was in High-A right now with a 2.47 ERA like he had last year, he’d likely be top 5. You can’t punish a guy for punching way above his weight class and not putting up sub 2.00 numbers.
• He’s a bit low on Ethan Petry, likely thinking he’s a 1B-limited bat. Fair enough. He’ll hit until he doesn’t. There’s nobody blocking his path in AA in the “1B-corner OF” realm from a top-end prospect perspective with a MLFA, a Rule-5 draftee, and a minor trade acquisition starting at 1B, LF, and DH respectively.
• Here’s where things get weird: Seaver King is at #25. Ok, that just seems ridiculous. Even if you thought he was over rated via his 2025 season … we’re still talking about a 1st round pick who is a starting SS in AA with solid numbers.
• Angel Feliz is way down at #37, nearly out of his rankings, despite mostly being an upper teen in other places. I wonder what Eric sees here.

Ranking to 41 should capture every name one could think of … but there’s some curious omissions here:

• Yohandy Morales: totally missing. Which we’re starting to see more and more of, as some believe he may be in the Andrew Pinckney camp of stalled AAA players who couldn’t even turn themselves into 4-A taxi squad guys.
• Sam Peterson; completely missing as well, and a bit more shocking. This is a guy who was top 10 in other lists, a true CF with power and speed. Not sure what we’re missing here.
• No love for our POTY Glasser, but no surprise either.
• Previous Bonus babies like Hurtado and Vaquero have dropped out.
• Shockingly, no Elijah Green. (kidding).

Conclusion: Interesting list here. It made me question some of the spots i’ve got players ranked at in my current top 100 and something draft rankings spreadsheet. I may have to go back to the drawing board.

When the team chose to go to war for the 2026 Opening day with a bullpen that featured

• 5 Wavier claims (Poulin, Varland, Waldichuk, Schultz, and yes Lovelady counts here)
• 1 MLFAs (Perez), and
• 2 trade acquisitions with negligible MLB service time (Beeter, Granillo)

… one could probably have been a little concerned about how they’d fare.

Well, 3 weeks in, we have our answer. They’ve already made use of every other reliever on the 40-man at some point (Rutledge, Ribalta, and Fernandez … yet another Waiver claim) plus have made use of two starters (Parker and Alvarez) to eat innings with varying success.

As Mark Zuckerman pointed out, with Fernandez’s ridiculously awful outing last night (where he gave up 2 hits, 2 walks, threw a pitch to the backstop, and bounced so many balls in the dirt that his catcher Millas seemed completely fed up when one of them caught him flush in the hand), the team has now used 21 pitchers already, including one mop-up inning from outfielder Joey Weimer.

21 pitchers. That’s hard to do when you only have 25 arms on the entire 40-man roster, and four of them are on the 60-day DL.

Already, the Nats bullpen is last in the league in fWAR, 29th in FIP, 27th in ERA, 30th in K/9.

Clearly, this isn’t sustainable. But, I’m not entirely sure where they go from here. It’s one thing when you build a bullpen as Rizzo did so frequently in the past, from a combination of holdovers, veteran FAs, and call-ups. At least there you weren’t rolling the dice with 75% of the pen. But with so many trash-heap players, who other teams didn’t even think were worthy of keeping a 40-man spot, let alone a 26-man active roster spot, this was always going to be a recipe for disaster.

There’s zero 40-man help remaining in Rochester; the only two guys they haven’t called up are starters Perales and Cornelio … who aren’t exactly locks to be able to come in and pitch effectively in relief after being on longer rest. There’s a couple more MLFAs there with MLB time who aren’t pitching half bad (Yean and Gott), but the rest of the AAA bullpen isn’t exactly inspiring confidence either.

It could be a long season.

With the staggered starts now in place for MLB, AAA, and then the rest of the full-season minor leagues, we no longer get the massive data dump of roster releases like in year’s past. We get MLB, then AAA, then the rest. So, I’ve kind of held onto this post for a bit. We also had to wait for all the leagues to get totally through one rotation so I could write this reaction piece.

Here’s some reactions to the five Full-season roster announcements. I’m primarily focusing on the starting rotations, and just for fun i’m pulling in my 2026 Rotation predictions piece written last October to talk about just how far off I was. I’ll throw in some commentary on each rotation, and I’m also adding in commentary on some notable position player assignments.

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• MLB predicted for 2026: Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, Alvarez
• MLB Actual 2026: Cavalli, Mikolas, Irvin, Griffen, Littell

Rotation Thoughts: Well, that didn’t go how I thought it would last fall.

1. I thought the team would hold onto Gore through the 2026 trade deadline and flip him then (wrong: they found a trade partner willing to part with some top-end prospects)
2. I thought Grey would be healthy (nope: flexor strain, on top of an entire year lost to TJ. not good)
3. I thought Alvarez’ September would earn him a spot as the sole lefty worthy of the rotation (nope: by all accounts reading the tea leaves from sping training coverage this team never really considered him, or Parker, for the 5th starter spot.
4. I figured we’d sign just one FA, not three.
5. And I certainly didn’t think Irvin would earn a spot after his awful 2025.

Lots of “wrong” in there.

Losing Grey was a bummer; Flexor Strain often turns into more. I know he’s not an Ace in this league, but he has promise, and would be a solid 4th starter on a good team. Unfortunately, we’re not a good team, so he was our opening day starter two years ago. Lets all just hold our collective breath and hope these three veteran FAs pitch well enough to net talent at the trade deadline.

In my prediction piece, I thought the team would push all three of Parker, Irvin, and Lord to the bullpen. Lord’s relief splits were so much better than his starter splits that it made too much sense, while the others could hopefully morph into better starters. Instead, the team sent Parker down, along with (initially) four other 40-man members.

Other Roster thoughts: MLB Bullpen, Roster reactions: I already posted on this topic around Opening day. TL/DR: the bullpen is a collection of waiver claims and MLFAs nobody’s heard off and the team sent down or cut loose prospects instead of playing them at the MLB level. And, through the first week we’re not exactly seeing a murder’s row of relivers coming out of the pen. After a promising opening series, the bullpen has looked worse than awful, and it may be a long season of up-and-down options/call-ups from the AAA core.

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• AAA predicted for 2026: Lao, Ogasawara, Cornelio, Bennett, veteran MLFA
• AAA actual: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Cornelio, Lara/Champlain

Rotation thoughts: We thought we had a clean set of 40-man starters set to go in AAA when the opening day MLB rosters were announced, but then the team DFA’d Linan and has had to scramble in the opening weeks of the season to find a 5th starter. The first turn through was a brief stint from former 40-man member Lara, but the real candidate seems to be MLFA signee Champlain, who’s basically always been a starter. This is an experienced, expectations-heavy crew; Parker hasn’t been in AAA since late 2023 and (for me) should be in the MLB bullpen. Same with Alvarez: not sure what he has to prove in AAA after a stellar 2025 (his first two starts in 2026 confirm that so far). Cornelio more than earned his spot on this roster with his meteoric rise in 2025; should be interesting to see if he sticks. My off-season predictions were understandably shredded when the team released Lao (to go to Japan) and traded Bennett (straight up for Perales). Ogasawara got pushed down with so many 40-man players pouring into AA to be the richest guy in the Eastern league.

Other roster thoughts: the team, by virtue of sending down so many 1B/OF types, now has a massive logjam of players in AAA who need playing time. AAA now has Ortiz, Chapparo, Hassell, Crews, and Franklin, all of whom are on the 40-man and aren’t in AAA for their health. On top of that you have well regarded OF prospects Pinckney and Glasser with little room to play, and then so many 1B types has pushed Morales to 3B … that’s like 7 guys for 5 spots night in and night out. At least they alleviated the pressure a little bit by releasing Mervis … but a 40-man guy is now sitting regularly in AAA. So far, it seems like Pinckney is the odd-man out, with the more flexible Glasser playing mostly 2B. Pinckney may be another sign of something I alluded to previously; he was clearly a favorite of the previous front office, getting spring training NRIs out of nowhere despite being basically less-than 4A talent.

The Bullpen features basically three 40-man guys on their last chance (Rutledge, Ribalta, Fernandez). If these guys couldn’t beat out the any one of the waiver claims currently in MLB, that really is an indictment of where they are. They’re joined by four 2026 MLFAs (one step above a waiver claim) in Yean, Gott, Penrod, and Montes de Oca (already hurt). There’s three former starters in the pen (Lara, Shuman, Tolman), so it should be interesting to see who gets the 5th starter spot long term once Eder got DFA’d and traded for basically nothing (ok, they got “cash”). Technically it looked like Lara got the start when they first needed a 5th starter, but i’m guessing it may actually be Chander Champlain, an end of spring training MLFA who pitched to a 7.84 ERA last year as a AAA starter in the PCL. Could be an interesting year of churn in AAA with the new regime so freely grabbing guys off the MLFA/waiver wire.

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• AA predicted: Rotation: Kent, Clemmey, Choi, Sthele, Atencio
• AA Acutal: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
• AA D/L rotation: Susana, Sykora, Stuart, Rosario, Kent.

Rotation thoughts: Gee, kinda wish our AA rotation was our DL list and not who we’re actually throwing out there. That’s two top-5 prospects, a near top-10, and two current/former mid teen prospects.

Happy to see both Swan and Garcia moved up. Where is Kent?? I thought he was a key member of this rotation but he’s nowhere to be found to start the season (answer: he’s on the DL, put there after the season started, though apparently not yet onto Milb.com’s register). Luckham and Ogasawara were pushed down to AA thanks to too many 40-man guys coming down from MLB, and that ended up impacting a couple arms here: I initially predicted Choi to be here but he was a MLFA after last season … and remains a MLFA. Same with Atencio; he elected MLFA as well and is out of the system (not sure how I screwed that up). Nonetheless, AA a major prospect and two promising arms to watch. I’ll have to time it right in the rotation when Harrisburg comes to visit Richmond so I can see one of the better prospects throw.

Other roster thoughts: the AA non-pitching roster has a lot of holdovers from the end of 2025, and a lot of down-ballot but still important prospect depth. Lomavita’s pathway to the majors has been severely impacted with the Ford acquisition; how will he react? Is Seaver King mid-2025 version of AFL-version? Is Wallace a top 10 prospect or a mid-30s prospect? Is Sam Peterson the real deal? Lots of fun questions for this roster. The day before this writing Made broke his leg (or something similarly bad) and went straight to the 60-day DL, opening up probably the last chance for DC-native Cortland Lawson to get a chance.

The bullpen, like AAA’s, features a growing collection of MLFAs and rule5 guys, including a few signed on the eve of the season and newly introduced to Nats fans when the rosters were revealed and we were like, “Uh, who is that guy?” Gaston? Van Scoyoc? Tebrake? Linarez?

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• High-A predicted: Randall, Garcia, Polanco, Linan, Sales
• High-A Actual: Bruni, Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Sullivan

Rotation thoughts: From predictions, Garcia made AA, Linan got flipped, and Sales started the year on the 60-day DL, so that opened up some spots. Polanco seems like he’s the LR/SS, and Sullivan got promoted up a level from where I thought he’d be last fall. It’s great to see Tejeda keeping a spot and not getting pushed to the bullpen. It should be good to see what Maddox can do; he didn’t really pitch last year. Lastly, we have a guy in Bruni who got the opening day start who was not only just a reliever last year, but struggled. I wonder if he sticks in the rotation, or if he’s actually really in the rotation, or if someone else (Polanco?) was supposed to go opening day and got hurt last minute.

Interestingly, when i shook out all the rosters on opening day, there were half a dozen names missing who I figured were headed for release … instead, a big chunk of them were added to Wilmington a few days later and are on the DL to start. Biven, Arguellas, Collins, Sthele, Tepper, and Dugas are all in that same category … wouldn’t have been surprised to see any of them released, but instead they’re on the High-A DL.

Other roster thoughts: There were a couple of kind of surprising roster assignments when the High-A roster was announced. I’ll kind of go through them one by one:

• Hunter Hines made this team. Hines was a negligible bonus senior draftee in 2025 but not only made a full season squad but made High-A right out of the gate. Bravo there.
• Devin Fitz-Gerald straight to High-A; this was one way to fix the log-jam of high-end SS prospects in Low-A; send one of them up. Looks like he’ll move to 2B for Feliz.
• Also in High-A is Angel Feliz, as we suspected. Feliz likely splits time with Jorgelys Mota at 3B/DH if i’m reading the roster right.
• I wonder if Elijah Green is there to play, or for social promotion. We’ll soon see. He got the early starts in Center, and picked right up where he left off (4 ks in first 8 ABs). It got even worse: he had a 5-k game the day before this drops, giving him 11 Ks in his first 16 ABs. He’s only 22, so High-A isn’t a reach, but with a new regime not wedded to keeping mistakes of the past, one has to wonder if/when Green gets released.
• Marcus Brown popped up out of nowhere 2 days in; he wasn’t on the social media roster releases then suddenly was subbed into a game 2 games in.
• The Bullpen is super heavy on MLFAs and rule5 minor league phase guys: 6 of the 12 guys. I don’t think this Front Office was impressed with what they saw down on the farm in terms of arms. However its safe to say

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• Low-A predicted: Sullivan, Johnson, Agostini, Feliz, Farias
• Low-A actual: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt

Rotation thoughts: My 2025 predictions were awful. Sullivan in High-A, Agostini and Farias were released, and Feliz is in XST. I was sort of surprised to see both our high-end bonus picks from 2025 (Harmon and Sime) here to start; the prior regime would have absolutely started them in XST and FCL. so, bravo to see them thrown to the wolves.

The first turn through the rotation looked like a ton of “tandem starting,” where two (or in some cases three) guys each go 3 innings/50 pitches. We’ll see how this shakes out; I’d guess the leaders in the clubhouse are Portorreal, Sime, Harmon, Johnson, and Lyon. But we’ll see.

Other roster thoughts: Well, if you’ve got half a dozen SS prospects who all need playing time, you do what Low-A is doing with them. Signed as SS but playing elsewhere early on includes Ronny Cruz (2B), Luke Dickerson (3b), Coy James (LF), and Gavin Fein (RF). Trade Acquisition SS Ramirez hurting for time early on. A good problem to have: good SS can move around.

Fredericksburg is suuuuper young. Half the lineup and two of the starting pitchers are teenagers.

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Who’s still in XST or missing?

Per the big board, which has been a bit challenging to keep up with this spring. there’s just a few names still hanging in XST purgatory.

• Jackson Ross, 1B 9th rounder from High-A last year.
• Brenner Cox, OF 4th rounder; career .177 BA who got squeezed out of the A rosters and may be done.
• Juan Abreu, a middle reliver from Low-A last year who’s without an assignment so far.
• 5-6 IFAs who clearly are headed to the DSL eventually, but there’s so many players listed there right now they’d overflow the XLS. I’d imagine we’re going to see at least 20 cuts from the DSL roster in the coming weeks.

One of these random files I have maintained since 2005 is a history of our Opening days. Now that we’ve had both our opening day on the road and our 2026 home Opener, here’s that data updated for 2026.

Home Opener Attendance and Weather through the years

The weather for 2026’s home opener was solid: 62 and partly cloudy is a heck of a lot better t han it has been in the past. 2011? 41, overcast, windy. 2022 a 4+ hour delay, 52 and rainy.

I think the best weather we ever had for a home opener may have been the infamous Philly invasion: 1pm 80-degree and sunny day. Too bad it was ruined by so many South Jersey bros who had been drinking for 3 hours by the time they got to the stadium.

• 2026: 41,161 (2:45 fri game, 62, partly cloudy)
• 2025: 41,231 (4:05 thurs game, 57, sunny, slight wind)
• 2024: 40,405 (4:05 tues game, 53, cloudy, slight wind)
• 2023: 35,756 (105 thurs game, 45 degrees and sunny)
• 2022: 35,052 (7:05 thurs game (pushed back from 4:05, then delayed to 8:21 weather. 52 degrees, cloudy, rainy)
• 2021: 4,801 (4:05 tuesday game, 74 degrees, partly cloudy, 5mph wind)
• 2020: 0 (7:09 thurs game, 90, partly cloudy, 7mph wind)
• 2019: 42,263 (1:07 thurs game, 56, partly cloudy, no wind)
• 2018: 42,477 (1:08 thurs game, 42, partly cloudy, slight wind)
• 2017: 42,744 (1:05 monday game, 66 and cloudy, slight wind)
• 2016: 41,650 (4:05 thursday game, 60 and 1.5hr rain delay)
• 2015: 42,295 (4:05 monday game, 75 and gorgeous)
• 2014: 42,834 (1:05 friday game, 50s and overcast)
• 2013: 45,274 (1:05 monday game, 60 and beautiful)
• 2012: 40,907 (1:05 thursday game 56, partly cloudy)
• 2011: 39,055 (1:05 thursday game, 41 degrees and overcast)
• 2010: 41,290 (1pm game monday, beautiful weather 80s and sunny): This was Phillies Invasaion
• 2009: 40,386 (3pm game on a monday, chilly 53degr and overcast).
• 2008: 39,389 (season and stadium opener), 8pm sunday night, Braves, nat’l tv clear but cold.
• 2007: 40,389 (in rfk, 1pm game vs Florida, 72 degrees
• 2006: 40,516 (in rfk, tuesday day game vs Mets, 72 degr and sunny)
• 2005: 45,596 (in rfk, debut of entire franchise, 62 degr and clear, evening game).

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Home opener Results and Box Scores

The Nats are just 6-16 all time through 2026 in their home openers, a pretty interesting stat given that for most of the 2010s they were one of the best teams in the sport.

• 2026: L Dodgers d Nats 13-6
• 2025: L Phillies d Nats 7-3
• 2024: L Pirates d Nats 8-4
• 2023: L Braves d Nats 7-2
• 2022: L Mets d Nats 5-1
• 2021: W Nats d Braves 6-5
• 2020: L Yankees d Nats 4-1
• 2019: L Mets d Nats 2-0
• 2018: L Mets d Nats 8-2
• 2017: W Nats d Marlins 4-2
• 2016: L Marlins d Nats 6-4
• 2015: L Mets d Nats 3-1
• 2014: L Braves d Nats 2-1
• 2013: W Nats d Marlins 2-0
• 2012: W Nats d Reds 2-0
• 2011: L Braves d Nats 2-0
• 2010: L Phillies d Nats 11-1
• 2009: L Phillies d Nats 9-8
• 2008: W Nats d Braves 3-2
• 2007: L Marlins d Nats 9-2
• 2006: L Mets d Nats 7-1
• 2005: W Nats d Diamondbacks 5-3

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Nats Season Openers.
We are slightly better in Season openers: Record: 9-13. We’ve been home 13 times, away 9 times.

• 2026: Away: Nats d Cubs 10-4. WP Lord, LP Boyd (Starters Cavalli, Boyd).
• 2025: Home: Phillies d Nats 7-3, WP Alvarado, LP Poche (Starters: MaKenzie, Wheeler)
• 2024: Away: Reds d Nats 8-2. WP: Montas. LP Grey (Starters: Grey, Montes).
• 2023: Home: Braves d Nationals 7-2. WP: Luetge, LP Corbin (starters: Fried, Corbin):
• 2022: Home: Mets d Nationals 5-1. WP: Megill, LP Corbin (starters same):
• 2021: Home: Nationals d Braves 6-5. WP: Hudson, LP Smith (starters Scherzer v Smyly):
• 2020: Home: Yankees d Nationals 4-1. WP: Cole, LP Scherzer (starters same):
• 2019: Home: Mets d Nationals 2-0. WP: deGrom, LP Scherzer (starters same):
• 2018: Away: Nats d Reds 2-0. WP Scherzer, LP Bailey (starters same):
• 2017: home: Nats d Marlins 4-2. WP Strasburg, LP Phelps (Starters Strasburg, Volquez):
• 2016: away: Nats d Braves 4-3. WP Treinen, LP O’Flarity (starters Scherzer, Teheran):
• 2015: home: Mets d Nats 3-1. WP: Bartolo Colon. LP: Max Scherzer
• 2014: away: Nats d Mets 9-7. WP Aaron Barrett, LP Familia (starters Strasburg, dillon Gee):
• 2013: home: Nats d Marlins 2-0. WP: Stephen Strasburg. LP: Ricky Nolasco.
• 2012: away: Nats d Cubs 2-1. WP Clippard, LP Marmol (starters: Strasburg and Ryan Dempster):
• 2011: home: Braves d Nats 2-0. WP: Derek Lowe. LP: Livan Hernandez.
• 2010: home: Phillies d Nats 11-1. WP: Roy Halladay. LP: John Lannan
• 2009: away: Marlins d Nats 12-6. WP: Nolasco, LP; Lannan
• 2008: home: Nats d Braves 3-2. WP: Rauch. LP: Moylan (Starters: Tim Hudson and Odalis Perez)
• 2007: home: Marlins d Nats 9-2. WP: Dontrelle Willis. LP: John Patterson
• 2006: away: Mets d Nats 3-2. WP: Glavine, LP: Hernandez.
• 2005: away: Phillies d Nats 8-4. WP: Lieber, LP: Hernandez.

Now that the 2026 Opening Day is past us, and I’ve updated my internal spreadsheet that tracks Opening Day starters over the years, which lets me bring you the following useless Trivia realted to Opening Day starters.

Here’s a link to my Opening day starter xls, which is also updated along the right hand side in the Links section. It is also worth noting that Baseball Reference of course maintains similar information. Here for example is the canonical opening day list of lineups (pitchers and players) for the Washington Nationals franchise. And here’s the list of all 30 teams’ opening day lineups for the 2025 season, with similar data for all past seasons). I can’t quite find a similar resource to just the starters across all 30 teams, but I’m sure it’s there somewhere, so I continue to maintain this XLS and the streak/trivia information.

Ok, that being said, here’s some useless trivia related to Opening Day Starters:

• First time Opening Day Starters for 20262: 13 of the 30 teams used first-time starters this year. That’s in line with the past few years (12 in 2025, 14 in 2024) and continues the trend of overall churn in starting pitching in the sport.
• Current Active Leader of Opening Day Starts: this remains the ageless Richmond-native Justin Verlander, with 12. He did 9 in Detroit, then another 3 in Houston. Clayton Kershaw was #2 but has now retired. Tied for 2nd now is Chris Sale (who extended his streak this year with Atlanta) and our former Ace Max Scherzer (who will slot into the back-end of Toronto’s rotation as he chases one more ring).
• Current Active Consecutive streak: Logan Webb, who made his 5th straight for San Francisco and was quickly bombed by the powerful Yankees lineup on the Netflix day before the real opening day nonsense that broke a ton of traditions.
• Current Leader of Consecutive Opening Day Starts: Verlander made 7 straight with Detroit; Webb is creeping up on him, and we have a slew of guys who just made their 3rd or 4th straight opening day starts … including Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, who seems like a great candidate to push for this record if/when he joins a new team.

Historical records:

• Most Opening Day Starts in History: Tom Seaver (16).  Tied for 2nd place with 14 is Jack Morris, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Walter Johnson
• Most Consecutive Opening Day Starts in History: Jack Morris; all 14 of his starts were in a row, Mr. Durability, and Mr. Hall of Famer thanks to the Veteran’s committee.

Nats Records:

• Max Scherzer is the Nats franchise leader in Opening day starts with 6. Do you think he’ll go into the Hall of Fame wearing a Nats hat? I tend to think so; he elevated himself to HoFame levels during his time in Washington.
• Strasburg is 2nd with four: he took the ball opening day in the 3 seasons before the Scherzer acquisition, then got it in 2017 mid Scherzer contract. Reminder: $35M of the Nats $92M opening payroll is going to Strasburg, who will get another $35M next year too in what may be the worst free agency contract ever handed out.
• Cade Cavalli becomes the 10th player in the Nats 22 year history to take the ball on opening day.
• Odalis Perez remains the most unlikely Opening Day starter, getting the ball in our bottoming-out year of 2008.

Lastly, here’s some interesting team observations for 2025’s Opening day Starters

• Cavalli is the 4th straight different Opening day starter we’ve had, not really a surprise to Nats fans who are watching the second straight reboot of the franchise. Cavalli seems likely to lead the line again though, since his competitors have either been traded (Gore) or are injured again (Grey) and our top starter prospects remain lower in the minors or hurt.
• Some teams have consistency, others are just all over the road. Cincinnati threw Virginia-born Andrew Abbot; he’s their 11th different opening day starter in 12 years.
• Other teams who can’t find a consistent ace: Tampa Bay (8 different guys in last 9 years),
• Texas had a crazy run where they used 15 different starters in the 16 years running from 2009 to 2024, but have now thrown Eovaldi 3 years’ running.

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Today 3/25/26, the Washington Nationals, a franchise in Major League Baseball purportedly worth more than $2 Billion dollars, rolled out the following opening day 26 man lineup.

• SP: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
• RP: Henry, Beeter, Poulin, Varland, Granillo, Waldichuk, CPerez, Lord,
• C: Ruiz, Millas
• INF: LGarcia, Abrams, House, Vivas, Nunez, Tena, Chapparo
• OF: Wood, Young, Lile, Weimer

By way of comparison, here’s 2025’s opening day 25-man roster.

• SP: Gore, Williams, Irvin, Soroka, Parker
• RP: Finnegan, Lopez, Sims, Ferrer, Poche, Salazar, Ribalta, Lord
• C: Ruiz, Adams,
• INF: Lowe, LGarcia, Abrams, DeJong, Tena, Rosario
• OF: Young, Wood, Crews, Call
• DH: Bell

So that’s 1 returning Starting Pitcher, 1 returning Reliever, 1 returning catcher, 3 returning infielders (against all odds since Tena should have been DFA’d the moment we acquired Vivas), and 2 returning outfielders. That’s just 8 of the 26 men who made it a year on the roster from this time last year, and probably half the roster that even the most experienced fan couldn’t pick out of a lineup.

Perhaps another way to look at it: acquisition method of this 26-man roster. Here’s a breakdown:

• Home grown players: 8: Garcia, House, Young, Lile, Henry, Cavalli, Irvin, Lord.
• Trade acquisitions: 9: Ruiz, Chapparo, Abrams, Wood, Beeter, Granillo, Millas, Tena, Vivas
• MLB FAs: 3: Griffin, Mikolas, Littell
• MLFAs: 1: Perez
• Waiver claims: 4: Weimer, Poulin, Varland, Waldichuk
• Rule5: 1 Nunez

On the one hand, yes it’s great that 17 of the 26 are either home grown or trade acquisitions, since for the most part these trade acquisitions were prospects when we got them. But 6 MLFA/Waiver/Rule5 guys is embarrassing. That’s 6 guys who weren’t worthy of being on some other team’s entire 40-man roster but who are now on our MLB active lineup..

Somehow, this roster is costing the team $92M in 26-man payroll … until you realize that figure includes Strasburg’s $35M annual salary still on the books (as well as Adam’s split contract $500k figure and Ogasawara’s $2M/year figure still owed despite his outright). So it’s actually closer to $58M to field this team … or about $25 less than what the official 30th ranked team (Miami) is spending. Wow.

So, hey Season Ticket Fans, welcome to 2026! Thanks for your checks last fall securing your seats; hope you enjoy the season.

So, we knew going in that 2026 was going to be another lost season. We could tell from the HS-heavy focus on players they drafted in June 2025, from the lack of any spending this off-season, and now by the increasingly curious moves they’re making in spring training.

And, honestly, I don’t entirely get what the team is doing.

The strategy should be simple: if you have no aims to compete, play the kids.

Instead, the team has endeavored to fill the MLB roster with veteran retreads. Instead of seeing if our younger arms like Parker, Lord, or Alvarez can prove out, or to let Josiah Grey get back to being his opening day starter self, we’re going to give starts to innings eaters like Mikolas, Griffen, and Littell.

Instead of having top-prospects like Crews and Hassell getting MLB at-bats, we’re going to apparently give the likes of Christian Franklin and waiver-claim Joey Wiemer those opportunities. We’re still claiming random middle infielders off other team’s waiver wires, and are quickly putting together a roster of randoms instead of a roster of home-growns. They did five waiver claims in a week and a half, then turned around and DFA’d most of them for other moves, making us (i’m sure) super popular reputation-wise in the player base.

What is this front office doing??

Are they planning on letting all these 30-something 1yr FAs showcase as trade bait in a few months? Is that what all of this is?

Because, I’ll tell you, the team this front office is putting on the field at the expense of home grown talent that the fan base actually knows, after years of trading away all their stars, is going to literally repel the casual fan. Who is going to look at the probable pitchers and say to themselves, “Oh man, we gotta go see 37yr old Miles Mikolas pitch today!”

What exactly does Crews or Hassell have left to prove in AAA? Or Alvarez, or Grey, or Parker? Eder is now 27; he NEEDS to be in the majors. They just optioned Fernandez: he’s 30. If he can’t cut it at this point, then just release him.

I dunno. This entire spring has been one small hint after another that this was the trend, but Crews’ demotion sealed it. There’s very little exciting to this MLB team this year, except maybe to see if Cavalli’s spring dominance can continue, or to see if House can turn the corner. Otherwise … it’s seemingly going to be a long year.

A quick recap of the 2026 World Baseball Classic.

I hyper-covered early versions of the WBC, back in 2013 and 2017 especially, then curiously didn’t post a single thing about the 2023 version. I think i ran into “fixture overload” with respect to work and writing duties that spring; it was the first year I began officially covering Pickleball for Forbes Magazine and I probably just ran out of spare time. This year, while I have been following the storylines, this will be the sole recap for similar reasons; March is a tough time to keep up with all the requirements on my time.

I feel like each iteration, this event grows in stature amongst the fans and (especially) the players. This time around many called the USA team the greatest team ever assembled … yet they barely qualified out of the group stage thanks to (frankly) stupidity from its manager.

This event had a pall over it thanks to overbearing Insurance requirements that blocked a slew of high profile players from playing, almost all from Puerto Rico and Venezuela, which stemmed form Edwin Diaz’ 2023 injury that cost him the season and cost the insurance company his 2023 salary of $20M. They cracked down on a number of players this year, which depleted some of the Latin American teams greatly.

Here’s a quick recap of the event, with thoughts on group stage and the knockout results.

Group Stage Observations

Here’s a link to the four groups:

• Group A: Canada and Puerto Rico advance. Cuba in particular knocked out, though they were not allowed to use any Cuba-born players who have defected. I did a post back in 2017 surmising what a “unified Cuban” roster would look like for that WBC and it was spectacular. Now? It’d still be a pretty solid lineup, but until something massive changes geopolitically we’ll never know.
• Group B: In an amazing Gaffe, USA’s manager (and former Nat) Mark DeRosa apparently forgets the team hadn’t yet qualified and put out an all-bench roster for their final game against Italy … then had to wait to see if the result of Italy-Mexico allowed them to advance. They lucked out, since the “Italy” team, which features exactly one player actually born there, the rest qualifying seemingly because their names ended in a vowel (i’m only half kidding; nearly the entire roster qualified by virtue of their parents holding Italian passport at some point in their life), went on a rampage and blew through the group, finishing undefeated and sending the favored Mexicans home. The Italian team of MLB regulars have an espresso machine in the dugout and slut down shots of caffine after every homer; awesoem.
• Group C: no surprises here: the two favorites (Japan and South Korea) advanced as expected. It’s perhaps slightly surprising not to see Chinese Taipei futher along given its little league dominance; they finish 4th behind Australia. Perhaps the greatest story of the group stage was the send-off Czech pitcher Ondřej Satoria got upon his removal from the group stage game. He famously struck out Shohei Ohtani back in 2023 and threw nearly 5 shutout innings in his final WBC appearance. Not bad for a guy who plays amateur league in his home country and works as an Electrical engineer full time.
• Group D: again no surprises here: the dominant Dominican Republic team cruised through the bracket, with Venezuela second. The DR is a power house team, likely the best its ever put together, fitting for a country that provides something like 20% of the players in the sport.

In the knockouts:

Quarter finals:

• DR destroyed Korea 10-0; they’re going to be a tough out and are probably favorites to win again for the first time since 2013.
• USA held on to beat Canada 5-3. Former Nat Mike Soroka got batted around and took the loss.
• Italy continue their run, beating Puerto Rico 8-6 after getting to PR’s starter Seth Lugo early.
• Venezuela shocked 3-time champ Japan 8-5, somehow surviving an awful outing from their star Ranger Suarez to win.

Semis:

• USA-DR was perhaps the most star-studded game the game has seen in decades, perhaps since the famous 1970 MLB all star game, which featured 20 future Hall of Famers. USA ends up winning a nail biter 2-1 which probably will be more remembered for two awful strike-3 calls to end the inning and offensive threat late for the DR. ABS can’t get here soon enough.
• Venezuela overcame the upstart Italy team to reach its first WBC final. Fitting in a year where the US president forcibly arrested the sitting Venezuelan president in the months prior to the event.

Final:

• VZ wins 3-2 with a go-ahead run in the 9th. A very good game for those who watched it, with USA’s rookie pitcher Nolan McLean holding his own and Harper hitting a super-clutch 8th inning homer. I just have to say: for all the talent we put on the offensive side of the ball, here’s the arms we threw in the final game: McLean, Keller, Vest, Jax, Whitlock, and Rodgers. Not exactly who we were promised nor a comprehensive list of the top American arms of today.

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Here’s the updated list of WBC finals, with baseball powerhouse Venezuela now joining the list of winners:

• 2026: Venezuela beats USA 3-2. (Eduardo Rodriguez pitching, Eugenio Suarez hitting)
• 2023: Japan beats USA 3-2 (Ohtani coming out party)
• 2017: USA beats Puerto Rico 8-0 (Stroman throws 6ip of 1hit ball in final)
• 2013: Dominican Republic beats Puerto Rico 3-0 (Encarnacion drives in the runs, Dedundo throws 5 scoreless)
• 2009: Japan d South Korea 5-3 (Ichiro goes 4-6 in title game)
• 2006: Japan d Cuba 10-6 (Dice-K coming out party)

Departing thoughts: I think Venezuela winning is awesome for the sport: we’ve now had USA, DR, Japan, and Venezuela win this thing (with PR, Cuba, and South Korea reaching the finals) in the history of the competition; that’s basically 95% of the origin countries for players in this sport. All we need now is for Mexico to finally break through and have a run along with Canada and we’ll have all the major baseball playing countries represented.