Nationals Arm Race

The draft signing deadline for the 2026 draft has come and gone, and this year just two of the 313 players drafted in the first 10 rounds failed to come to terms with their drafting team. Ever since we entered the draft pool bonus era started in 2012 (which is why this analysis starts in 2012), players not signing who were drafted in the top 10 rounds have been a relative rarity as compared to the decades prior, and this is a running post that catches us up with these players to talk about the “why” they failed to sign and to see if the gambit worked.

This post tries to answer the question: “does it ever pay off for a player not to sign?” And I’ve added in the 2026 players for tracking and analysis going forward. Most of the older content is repeated, but is included for continuity, and if there’s an known update to older draft classes I’ve added it as necessary.

In 2025’s version of this post, I had a long discussion on how this tpoic is now greatly impacted by the rise of NIL money in college; I won’t repeat the discussion here, but will link it for your perusal. I mention this because … well one of the 2026 guys who failed to sign was directly impacted by NIL money, as we’ll discuss in a moment.

I’ve also moved the summary analysis to the top, since most of this post is recycled historical information from 10-15 years ago.

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Here’s a list of the last 15 years of players who were drafted but did not sign from the top 10 rounds.  This analysis goes back to 2012, since that’s the beginning of the new draft bonus hard slot rules.

• 2026: 2
• 2025: 2
• 2024: 4
• 2023: 1
• 2022: 3
• 2021: 3 (start of the 20-round era)
• 2020: 0 (covid 5-round draft)
• 2019: 2
• 2018: 4 (all 1st or supp-1st rounders)
• 2017: 3
• 2016: 2
• 2015: 6
• 2014: 6 (two of which were Nats picks: Andrew Suarez and Austin Byler in that ill-fated draft class, and one more who didn’t sign thanks to Houston’s screwing up the Brady Aiken deal and who was eventually granted free agency).
• 2013: 8
• 2012: 8

In total, 54 total players picked in the top 10 rounds in the last 15 drafts failed to sign, more than half in the first four years of the construct as teams/players/agents were still getting used to the system. The number of players drafted in the top 10 rounds varies slightly from year to year, but its roughly 300 players a year times 15 seasons, so at least 4,500 players picked in that time and probably closer to 4,600 when you add in the dozens of supplemental and draft-compensation picks. Thus, more th an 99% of the top 10 rounds of players generally sign, making these non-signers worth analyzing individually.

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Here’s the summary of the follow 54 players, broken down into various categories. I have now uploaded all 54 players to a XLS at this Google sheets link with the relevant information needed for this aggregate analysis.

Breakdown of HS vs College players:

• 29 High Schoolers
• 25 College guys

This makes sense; HS guys drafted have built in leverage of going to school, so (especially earlier on) teams would speculatively draft them in the top few rounds to try to buy them out of college.

Breakdown of Pitchers versus Positional players

• 36 Pitchers
  • 14 College
  • 22 HS
• 18 position players
  • 11 College
  • 7 HS

Interestingly, this list is super skewed towards pitchers. Why? I’m not sure.

Overall Gambit verdict:

• 28 hurt their draft stock by failing to sign
  • 13 college
  • 15 HS
• 21 improved their draft stock/money (I’m including Jacob Nix in the win column here, as he got declared a FA)
  • 11 college
  • 10 HS
• 5 are too early to tell yet, all from 2024-26

So, thanks to a bunch of recent “wins,” the gambit balance has really gotten a lot closer to 50/50. This ratio used to be 2-1 against the players who didn’t sign.

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(a caveat here: I did not look at the exact dollar amounts in every case; Its possible that a 5th rounder in one year went in the 8th the next and got offered more money … but its quite rare with the new draft rules and bonus pools. For the most part these guys went from 3rd to 13th, or 8th to never redrafted, making it pretty easy to judge. See the raw data XLS for more)

2026: 2 players failed to sign:

• Logan Schmidt, Cleveland Guardians 2nd rounder. He’s a prep LHP from Ganesha HS (CA), picked 59th overall (mid to late 2nd round), by Cleveland. Schmidt was a significant prospect, ranked in the mid 40s for the whole draft and projecting as an early 2nd rounder. He fell a bit to later in the 2nd round. The pick had a slot value of 1.6M, and at the end of the draft they could have gone up to around $1.67M, but the two sides failed to agree. Schmidt is committed to LSU, and if he goes he’s not eligible again for 3 full years. He also reclassified (graduated early) so he was just 17 at the draft. I sense he was expecting to go higher, and when he fell out of the $2M bonus range he may have made up his mind. It’s odd though; you don’t generally reclassify and graduate super early unless you’re looking to get your pro career going, so I’d guess he may go the Juco route and re-enter next year’s draft. Note: Cleveland will get a comp pick in 2027’s draft for this failure to sign.
• Aidan Knaak, a fifth-round pick of the Milwaukee Brewers. Knaak is a College Jr. RHP starter for Clemson who struggled at the worst possible time in his college career. He was 1st team all -ACC both as a freshman and sophomore, but got hit this season to the tune of a 5.81 ERA. This was only good enough to get him drafted at the end of the 5th round; slot value $425k. We don’t know what was offered and what he turned down, but there’s a ton of rumors out there that Clemson came up with a $600k NIL package to keep Knaak in school. I cannot find a credible link validating this figure, but (as I talked about last year at length) is no surprise that he decided to stay in school. Knaack technically will have another two years of eligibility under the NCAA 5-for-5 rule, meaning Knaak could still play off remaining eligibility even in the 2027 draft. Interesting times, when “wealthy” schools can now compete with bonus figures in the $600k range; that’s the 5th round. Imagine every College Junior not drafted in the first four rounds having the option to take a bigger check to stay in school one more year; that would be a major draft impact going forward.

Verdict: obviously too early for both; Schmidt’s failing to sign is surprising and probably ill-advised, while it sounds like Knaak actually made money in this deal and can try to improve on his draft stock in 2027.

2025: 2 players failed to sign.

• Angel Cervantes, a prep RHP from Lynwood, California (right in the heart of Los Angeles county), who was generally ranked in the 45-50 area on draft boards. Pittsburgh drafted him right at his projection, 50th overall in the 2nd round, bonus slot of $1.93M. He failed to sign and honored his commitment to UCLA, which is just 13 miles from his home. Pittsburgh’s GM seemed aware that Cervantes may not sign when interviewed after the fact, and Pittsburgh will get a comp pick in the 2026 draft. They took that 1.93 and were able to spread some of it around to two lesser prep kids in the teens, but seemed to leave money on the table in the end. Cervantes wasn’t listed as a “strong college commit” in the scouting report at the time, and this seems like something of a shock. UCLA isn’t known as a major NIL school so it seems unlikely he’s making back $2M in three years at the school. UCLA is projecting to be a favorite to win the 2026 NCAA title, is his home town college, and Pittsburgh is not exactly a desirable franchise, all which may be factors. The Daily Bruin had a long article discussing this decision as well. 2026 update: Cervantes served as UCLA’s mid-week starter for most of the season, posting a 4-1 in 15 starts with decent numbers for the consensus #1 team in the nation. He should join the weekend rotation for 2027, and if he succeeds for the high-profile team he may beat his draft slot when he’s eligible in 2028.
• Mason Ligenza, a prep Lefty OF from a rural Pennsylvania school, drafted in 6th round by the Dodgers with a slot value of $317k. He chose to honor his commitment to Pittsburgh instead of signing. There’s little information out there about why Ligenza made this decision; perhaps it wasn’t enough money to forgo going to college and he’s staying relatively close to home. U-Pittsburgh isn’t exactly a baseball power house, so it seems unlikely he’s vastly going to improve on his draft stock in the near term. 2026 Update: He played 20 games for Pitt this season with a solid slash line (.292/.393/.667) … but why only 20 games? He would go weeks at a time without appearing, then suddenly in early May he was playing every day through the last two series and the ACC tourney. No injury news; seems like a weird season. If you post an OPS north of 1,000 in the ACC, you’re going to get drafted high, so, so far so good for Ligenza.

Verdict: too early to tell for both. Gut feeling: Cervantes is on track, as is Ligenza to beat the bonuses they turned down.

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2024: 4 players failed to sign.

• Tyler Bell, a prep SS from an IL HS. Drafted in 2nd-supp (#66 overall), slot value of $1.26M. Failed to come to terms with Tampa Bay. Based on some quick googling, it looks like Tampa offered him around $1.5M to sign but got other over-slot guys to sign before Bell would, which cost them the overage it likely would have taken. Bell was a top100 draft prospect and went to Kentucky and will be a draft-eligible sophomore in 2026. 2026 update: Bell was picked 10th overall and signed for $6M. Huge success for him.
• Chris Levonas, a prep RHP from a NJ HS. Drafted one pick after Bell as a 2nd round Supp (#67). Slot value: $1.23M. He was a higher ranked prospect than Bell, and he and Milwaukee couldn’t come to terms. Per my google research, Milwaukee had $3M to offer him, but Levonas was a significant prospect and decided to honor his commitment to Wake Forest. We don’t know if he turned down $1.23M, $3M or something in-between. The higher the number though, the higher the risk. 2026 update: Levonas was a mid-week starter for Wake in 2025, and had a sterling 2026 debut going 6 no-hit innings with 14Ks over Loyola Marymount. He finished the season as Wake’s Friday night starter with these excellent stats: 10-3, 2.92 ERA, 1.05 whip. He’s at Wake til the 2027 draft, where right now he’s projecting as a big-time, upper 1st rounder with a $6M bonus. So far, Levonas’ gambit is looking like it will pay off.
• Ryan Prager, a college junior LHP from Texas A&M. Los Angeles picked him in the 3rd round with a slot value of $948k. Per reporting in the Athletic, Prager was pretty open with teams about being open to coming back to school, earning his degree, and seeing if he could help TAMU get back to the title game. No numbers were discussed, but it sounds like the Angels drafted him without understanding his requirements nor what it would take to sign. Not terribly surprising given the Angel’s reputation in the industry. 2025 update: he regressed for TAMU in 2025, and he dropped to the 9th round, signing for $197k, far below his 3rd round slot the year before. Currently in the minors. That year cost him nearly $800k
• Jaxon Jelkin, a college junior RHP from Houston. The Mets drafted him in the 9th round (slot value $196,700). There’s not a lot of information out there. MLB’s scouting report notes that he made 7 starts for Houston then blew out his UCL, requiring TJ. They also note he was “dismissed” from Nebraska’s two years ago and has “severe makeup concerns.” Reportedly NY didn’t even make him a contract offer. 2026 Update: he sat out all of 2025, did not get drafted, and is on Kentucky’s 2026 roster. He’s their Friday night starter, and despite being a 5th year senior he got drafted in the 4th round comp in 2026 and signed for $547k. His bet on himself paid off.

Conclusion: Bell was a success, Levonas is looking like he will pay off, Prager lost money in the deal but gained a 4th year/degree hopefully, and Jelkin’s bet on himself paid off.

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2023: 1: just one player out of the 314 players selected in the top 10 rounds failed to sign.

• Caden Kendle, a Jr OF from UC-Irvine taken in the 10th round by St. Louis. He apparently agreed to a $175k bonus (around 10k over slot), but then had a change of heart and decided to go back to school for his senior season.

Verdict: He refused a $175k, played another year, got drafted in the 5th round of 2024 and signed an under-slot deal for $147k. So, he lost money, and a year of pro development. He may have gained a college degree though, so that’s good.

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2022: Just three players failed to sign in the 2022 draft’s top 10 rounds.

• Nolan McLean, a draft-eligible sophomore two-way player from Oklahoma State (RHP and 3B) who was picked by the Orioles at the top of the 3rd round. Baltimore found an issue in his medicals, so McLean went back to school. Slot bonus figure: $794k. Its unclear what bonus figure they agreed upon. McLean went back to school, and was picked again in the 3rd round in 2023, dropping 10 slots and signing for $747K with the Mets.
• Brandon Sproat, a RHP sophomore from Florida, failed to sign with the Mets as a 3rd rounder (slot value $691k) for reasons unknown. He went back to school, then (amazingly) agreed to a re-draft by the Mets in 2023, who picked him in the 2nd round and signed him for $1.47M. Sproat also appears later on in this post because he refused to sign out of HS as well.
• Brock Rodden, a 2B junior from Wichita State, failed to sign as a 10th rounder with Oakland (slot value: $151.3k). He went back to school, got drafted as a 5th rounder in 2023 and signed for $200k.

Verdict: McLean was not penalized for not signing, but it wasn’t really his choice since the team reneged. Sproat more than doubled his bonus offer from last year, and Rodden improved his by likely 25%. So, all three guys “worked out” in the end.

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2021: 3 players did not sign from the top 10 rounds:

• Kumar Rocker, RHP Vanderbilt, in a well publicized blow-up, the Mets drafted Rocker 10th overall and made a huge splash announcing a $6M over-slot bonus .. then ran into issues with his medicals, resulting in the two sides failing to agree on anything and the Mets passing on the Vanderbilt star altogether.  Rocker’s agent (ahem, “advisor”) Scott Boras of course refused to make his medicals available ahead of time, and of course claimed that there was no injury, but the subsequent findings vindicated the Met’s decision. Rocker had shoulder surgery in the fall of 2021, then pitched in Indy ball in 2022 before shockingly getting drafted by the Rangers with the 3rd overall pick in 2022. He signed for $5.2M, well below the slot value, and well below the $6M he agreed to in 2021, but he was still an upper 1st rounder. He pitched in the fall league, then made a handful of starts in 2023 before …. tearing his UCL and having Tommy John. So, Perhaps the Mets were right all along. 2025 Update: He finally got a run with Texas in 2025 and was awful: 14 starts, 5.74 ERA. Two arm injuries in 5 years is tough.
• Jud Fabian, OF Florida; saw his draft stock fall from a possible top-5 pick all the way out of the first round.  But, he apparently had a $3M deal with Baltimore in the second, but those plans were foiled when Boston selected him at the beginning of the 2nd round with a $1.86M slot value.  Fabian stuck to his bonus demands, and the two sides could not reach an agreement.  Fabian went back to school and was a Comp-B pick in 2022, signing for $1.03M.
• Alex Ulloa, prep SS from Texas failed to come to terms with Houston as a 4th round pick.  Ulloa bailed out of an Oklahoma State commitment, went to Yavapai College Juco … and went undrafted in 2022 altogether. Again in 2023, but he did get a commit to U of Miami for 2024, his junior season, but never attended. Failed to get drafted in 2024 altogether, now at Florida International. 2026 update: Ulloa played all of 2026 at Wichita State, slashing .279/.364/.377 as a 23yr old, and I believe he still has one year of eligibility. Undrafted in 2026, but the story may not be over.

Verdict: Rocker couldn’t beat $6M but still got $5.2M as damaged goods, so its hard to say he made a bad decision (not that it was entirely his to make with the Mets pulling the offer).  Fabian lost out on $2M of bonus money, but we don’t know what money he turned down from Boston (odds are he lost out on the deal). Ulloa’s slot value was $492k in 2021; we don’t know what he was offered in 2021, but we went completely undrafted in 2022, so it seems safe to say he has lost out on money, since it seems incredibly unlikely he’ll get picked that high again as a 5th year junior or whatever he is in 2026.

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2020: in a shortened 5-round Covid-related draft, not one player picked in the 5 rounds failed to sign.

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2019: 2 players did not sign from the top 10 rounds

• Brandon Sproat, RHP Fla HS 7th/205 overall by Texas.  $222,100 slot value, which wasn’t enough to buy Sproat out of his commitment to Florida. As we’ve already seen, Sproat and sign-ability was also an issue in 2022, but he did eventually sign in 2023 for a ton of money.
• Wyatt Hendrie, C from Calif Juco 10th/312 overall by Chicago Cubs.  $142,200 slot value.  Cubs seemingly ran into slot issues with both 10th and 11th rounder, and Hendrie wouldn’t take under slot. Hendrie went undrafted in 2020’s shortened draft, but then was picked in the 7th in 2021 and signed for $177,500 out of San Diego State.

Verdict: both players ended up making money by not signing; Sproat a ton, Hendrie a little bit.

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2018: 4 players did not sign

• Carter Stewart, RHP Fla HS. 1st/8th overall. Atlanta didn’t like Physical, offered 40% of slot value ($1.9M); initially slated to Mississippi State.  Update: However, he did an about face, went to a Juco instead with the plan on re-entering the 2019 draft.  When he struggled in Juco and fell to a mid 2nd round projection … he attempted an end-around of the MLB draft rules and signed to play in japan, a situation I detailed in this space.  By 2021 he had graduated the Japan minor leagues into their majors, and his stats as of 2023 seem pretty solid (as a 23yr old he has a sub 2.00 ERA for his team Softbank). 2026 update: he was dominant in 2024 but missed the entire 2025 season with injury. He has started 2026 slow. He’s signed in Japan through 2026, at which point he may come back.
• Matt McLain: 2B Calif HS. 1st/25: Asked $3M, Arizona offered $2.6M didn’t budge, going to UCLA.  Update: picked 17th overall in the 2021 draft and signed for $4.63M. Huge gamble and huge win. One of the few Prep guys to turn down that amount of money and eventually get more.
• JT Ginn: RHP Miss HS. 1st/30th: LA dodgers offered $2.4M, asking $2.9M, going to Mississippi State.  Update: drafted 2nd round/52nd overall in 2020 draft, signed for $2.9M with the Mets in a well over-slot deal.  So two years later he got his asking number.
• Gunnar Hoglund: LHP Fla HS. 1supp/36: Pittsburgh didn’t like physical, low-balled and he declined. going to Ole Miss.  2021; was projected as a top 10 pick, hurt his arm, had TJ but still got drafted 19th overall by Toronto and signed for $3.25M. Big win.

McLean drastically improved his stock, Ginn got what he wanted, and Hoglund (despite his injury) got paid.  I already detailed in a separate post why I think Stewart’s deal is smart.

Verdict: All four made the right decision.

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2017: 3 players did not sign

• Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Oregon State, 1s/31st overall. Failed to sign with Tampa, who (I guess) didn’t like his medicals.  He was coming back from TJ and only had a few weeks of action before the draft. Update: Went 6th round in 2018 to Milwaukee.
• Jack Conlon, RHP, Clements HS (Sugar Land, Texas). 4th round/128 overall. Failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Texas A&M.  Update: left TAMU, went to San Jacinto, then enrolled in Rice and sat out 2020.  However, he wasn’t on the 2021 roster, and its unclear where he’s playing at this point. He seems to be out of baseball at this point.
• Jo Jo Booker, RHP, Miller HS (Brewton, Ala.). 5th round/145 overall. failed to sign with LA Angels, went to South Alabama.  Ended up playing 5 full seasons for South Alabama, was never drafted, posted an ERA north of 6.00 his 5th year, and is likely out of baseball.

Two players who ended up playing themselves out of any bonus dollars.  Rasmussen didn’t turn down the Rays as much as they refused to tender him a contract … they must have tendered him something because they got a comp pick in 2018 draft.  So he turned down 40% of first round money in 2017 to sign an under-slot deal in the 6th round of 2018 ($135k, just $10k more than the non-top 10 rounds minimum).  I’d say this was a bad move by the player unless Tampa flat out refused to pay a dollar.

Verdict: 1 worsened his draft position, 2 missed out on any draft money.

2016: 2 players did not sign

• Nick Lodolo: 1S/41st overall; LHP from Damien HS in California. failed to sign with Pittsburgh, went to TCU instead, draft eligible in 2019.  In 2021, drafted 7th overall, signed for $5.43M.
• Tyler Buffett: 7th/217 overall; RHP, failed to sign with Houston. returned to Oklahoma State, drafted in 6th round in 2017 and signed with Cincinnati

Lodolo went to school (an arm-shredder program in TCU even) and went from 41st overall to 7th overall, with probably 3x the bonus.  Furthermore, by 2021 he was one of the best pitching prospects in the game.  Meanwhile Buffett improved his draft position one round by going back to school.

Verdict: 1 drastically improved his draft pick and money, 1 improved his draft position one round.

2015: 6 guys did not sign.

• Kyle Funkhouser: 1st/35th overall: RHP from Louisville, failed to sign with LA Dodgers, turning down an above-slot $2M. 4th rounder in 2016, signed with Detroit.
• Brady Singer, 2nd/56th overall: RHP Florida HS. failed to sign with Toronto, went to Florida and was 1st rounder in 2018, signed with Kansas City
• Jonathan Hughes, 2nd/68th overall: RHP Georgia HS. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Georgia Tech and not even drafted in 2018…
• Kyle Cody, 2nd/73rd overall: RHP U Kentucky. failed to sign with Minnesota, drafted in 6th round in 2016 and signed with Texas
• Nicholas Shumpert, 7th/220th overall. SS Colorado HS. failed to sign with Detroit. Went to San Jacinto CC, drafted in 28th round 2016 by Atlanta and signed.
• Kep Brown, 10th/311 overall. RF South Carolina HS, failed to sign with LA Dodgers. went to Juco, then to UNC-Wilmington, not drafted in 2018.

Funkhouser was the biggest “whoops” here; a poor spring took him from his pre-season top 10 draft position all the way out of the first round, but he still demanded upper 1st round money.  He didn’t get it … and then fell to the 4th round the next year.  That was a big fail.  Singer clearly improved on his 2nd round status by going to college.    Cody slipped from being a 2nd rounder to a 6th rounder.  The other three guys drastically fell on draft boards; one of them going from a 10th rounder to not even being drafted.

Verdict: 1 improved, 5 hurt draft stock

2014: 6 failed to sign

• Brady Aiken: 1/1 overall, LHP from San Diego HS. failed to sign with Houston, went to IMG Academy in FL, drafted 1/17 by Cleveland
• Andrew Suarez: 2nd/57 overall LHP from U-Miami, failed to sign with Washington. Drafted 2nd round/61st overall in 2015 by San Francisco
• Trevor Megill; 3rd/104th overall RHP from Loyola Marymount. failed to sign with Boston, drafted 7th/207 in 2015 draft and signed with San Diego
• Jacob Nix: 5th/136 RHP from Los Alomitos HS; couldn’t sign when Tampa lost bonus money, sued, FA, signed with San Diego
• Zack Zehner: 7th/204 OF from Cal Poly, failed to sign with Toronto. Drafted 18th round 2015 and signed with NYY
• Austin Byler, 9th/274 1B from nevada-Reno. failed to sign with Washington, drafted 11th round in 2015 and signed with Arizona

Aiken became quite the rarity; the first #1 overall baseball pick to fail to sign in 30  years.    But his lack of signing cascaded and cost the Astros both their 5th rounder Nix and another player later on thanks to the new draft rules on bonus pools; Nix ended up being declared a FA in a face-saving move by MLB so as not to admit that their new bonus cap circumvention rules were BS.  Aiken had no where to go but down from 1-1 so he obviously cost himself money.  The others all fell, if only slightly in Suarez’s case.

Verdict: 1 didn’t count, 5 lowered draft stock

2013: 8 failed to sign

• Phil Bickford: 1/10 RHP California HS. Toronto failed to sign. went to Southern Nevada juco, drafted 1/18 by SF and signed.
• Matt Krook 1s/35 LHP calif HS. Miami failed to sign, went to Oregon State, drafted 4th round by SF in 2016
• Ben DeLuzio 3rd/80 SS from Fla HS. Miami failed to sign. Went to Florida State, played 4 years … undrafted out of college, NDFA with Arizona
• Ben Holmes, 5th /151 LHP Oregon State. Philly failed to sign. went 9th round in 2014
• Jason Monda 6th/181 OF Washington State. Philly failed to sign … then accused him of NCAA violations. he wasn’t drafted again and quit to go to Med school
• Stephen Woods 6th/188 RHP NY HS: Tampa failed to sign, went to Suny-Albany, drafted 8th round 2016 by SF and signed
• Dustin DeMuth 8th/230 3B from Indiana, Minnesota failed to sign, became 5th rounder in 2014 and signed with Milwaukee
• Ross Kivett 10th/291 2B from kansas State. Cleveland failed to sign, became 6th rounder in 2014 and signed with Detroit

Bickford fell 8 slots year over  year but still fell.   DeMuth and Kivett both improved their stock.  The rest fell, drastically in some cases.

Verdict: 2 improved, 6 fell

2012: 8 failed to sign

• Mark Appel 1/8 RHP Stanford by Pittsburgh. failed to sign, was 1/1 in 2013 with Houston
• Teddy Stankiewicz 2/75 RHP from Texas Hs. failed to sign with Mets, went Juco, 2/45 in 2013 by Boston
• Alec Rash, 2/95 by Philadelphia from IA HS. went to Missouri, 2015 drafted in 23rd round by Washington but still didn’t sign; quit baseball and started playing NCAA basketball
• Kyle Twomey, 3/106 LHP Calif HS Oakland. Drafted 13th round 3 yrs later out of USC by Chicago Cubs.
• Brandon Thomas 4/136 OF from Ga Tech; didn’t sign with Pittsburgh, drafted 8th round one year later and signed with NYY
• Colin Poche 5/162 LHP texas h s. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Dallas Baptist, undrafted Jr year, drafted 14th round 2016 by Arizona
• Nick Halamandaris 8/251 1B Calif HS. failed to sign with Seattle, played 4 years at cal, undrafted jr and Sr year, NDFA with Seattle, played one season
• L.J. Mazzilli 9/280 2B from UConn. 4th rounder in 2013 signed with NY Mets

Appel managed to improve from 8th overall to 1st overall.  Stankiewicz also improved his stock about a round’s worth.  Mazzilli improved from a 9th rounder to a 4th rounder.  The others all fell.

Verdict: 3 up, 5 down.

Busy weekend, so I’m just commenting now on the unexpected trade the team made over the weekend. I posted an opinion piece saying we should start moving players despite our Wild Card position … but I wasn’t expecting THIS move:

• Nats send 3B/1B Curtis Mead to Boston
• Boston sends us LHP Starter Connell Early

Ok first off, I love this trade. This is the epitome of a team selling high on a player in Mead, selling from a position of strength, using that strength to acquire in an area of weakness, and demonstrating how to move players around well. That’s how you build winners, and is something we’ve talked about recently with all our corner OF depth in the minors. Trade those guys if they’re blocked, get something we need. Well, that’s what we just did.

The team acquired Curtis Mead at the end of spring training after the White Sox DFA’d him, flipping 2025 6th round Senior Sign Boston Smith to acquire him. Mead had been a disappointment to that point, with years of OPS+ figures in the 60-80 range. Chicago probably thought they were fleecing US in March.

Mead rewarded the team with a 133 OPS+ figure, hitting well enough to enable the team to send House down and feature in the middle of our order for much of this season. To say this Mead production has come out of nowhere is an understatement; he was literally DFA’d at the end of spring. We traded a guy who we gave a $50k draft bonus to in order to acquire him.

(Yes, I’m aware Smith is crushing the ball in AA for the White Sox; but he was still a 6th round throw-away draft pick; anything the White Sox get out of him is found gold as well. Also, if Smith was that big of a potential prospect coming out of college, not only would he have been drafted in 2024 as a junior, but he’d have been at a better school via the transfer portal. I think his production may be smoke and mirrors, and if he even turns into a backup MLB catcher I’ll be surprised).

Meanwhile, the return is something the Nats desperately need, and which we’ve desperately struggled to consistently develop for a decade: a reliable starting pitcher. Well, at least he looks reliable while healthy, giving the Red Sox 17 starts this year with a 3.44 ERA, a 1.2 whip and perhaps a little concerning 4.62 FIP. Nonetheless, his 119 ERA+ is exactly equal to what Cavalli has done for us this year to this point.

Early is a local kid: went to James River HS in Midlothian (which i’ve driven past 100 times in my time living here), then to UVA where he seems to have avoided the UVA mechanics issues that plague their grads. He was a 2023 5th rounder who was basically Boston’s 3rd starter this year. He’s in his first arb season, and thus is controlled through 2031.

In essence, we’ve now turned a 6th round senior sign into a #3 starter. Even saying that we’ve turned a March DFA acquisition into a #3 starter is big enough.

Worst case scenarios: Early is on the DL right now with “elbow soreness,” which probably greased the skids on this trade. Boston has gotten themselves back into the playoff chase, and they can’t “wait” for a starter to return from injury, so might as well flip him for an area of need. If Early is out for the rest of the season, or needs TJ? Well, that’d be a tough break. If Early reverts to his FIP and is more of a 5th starter than a 3rd starter? Still a good trade. If Mead continues to hit this way for the coming years and becomes a cornerstone of the Boston offense, we’ll have to hope that House lives up to his advance billing and replaces that offense.

Well, here’s one of those posts that may draw a pretty angry response.

First, some facts driving this decision:

As of this writing, on 7/25/26, the Nats sit 52-52, are 3 games out of the last wild-card spot to the team they just lost to last night at home, and are staring up in the standings at another 3 teams (Miami, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh) in between us and the final wild-card spot.

We are some how 52-52 because of a historically good offense for us (2nd or 3rd best in the league based on wRC+ and fWAR), and are doing it in spite of a ridiculously bad pitching staff (28th or 29th in the league based on overall ERA or fWAR). Our relievers have a combined -2.4 fWAR for the season and have blown nearly as many saves as they have actual saves. We really only have two reliable starters and our #3 starter in a series would probably be either Alvarez or an opener in front of a guy who has an ERA in the 5s.

The trade deadline is Monday August 3rd at 6pm EST.

Between now and then, here’s our schedule:

• 2 more games against Arizona at home (55-49)
• 3 games at home vs Toronto (47-57)
• 4 on the road at Atlanta (61-42)

That would take us to Monday, where we start an away series against Philadelphia on the deadline day itself (56-48).

The last wild card spot would play a 3-game away series against the worst of the three divisional winners; guess who that is right now? Why, yes, it is Atlanta.

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So, the decision this team faces is this. Do we:

1. Go all-in on chasing the last wild card spot, which is no guarantee and would buy us a 3-game away series at Atlanta, a team that’s nearly 20 games over .500 right now and is on pace for 96 wins?
2. Stick with “the plan” from before the season and trade who we can to continue to build prospect capital for the future?

I think you can tell what my thought process is, from the way I phrased those options.

I’m not convinced that .500 team doing it on smoke and mirrors and an entire bullpen of waiver clams and MLFAs is going to be able to keep it together all the way to the end of the season, and if we skip out on the opportunity to cash in on, specifically, Foster Griffin just to end up as an 81-81 team at the end of the season, missing out on the Wild Card spot by 2-3 games, then we’ve blown a massive opportunity to acquire pieces that may actually help us in 2027.

I think Luis Garcia should be flipped; the return will never be higher. I don’t believe he’s suddenly a leading 1B power hitter in this league; he’s still got a .310 OBP and is only at 1B because his defense was so bad at 2B. He’s Arb-4 eligible next year, then a FA heading into 2027 and is easily replacable.

Foster Griffin isn’t going to extend with us; not after toiling in Japan for years to get this one shot. He’s going to hit FA t his winter and he’s going to take his one shot at a 5-year contract. He’s not going to take a “home town discount” for the Nats just because we gave him a shot. You trade him, and we can re-engage with him and resign him in the off-season for sure, but if we let him go for nothing, we get nothing (even if we give him a QO).

Abrams is a bit more difficult to swallow, b/c he’s a starting all star for a team that hasn’t had one since the teens. But, the truth is, he’s an abhorrent SS defensively who needs to move off the position and it could get ugly between player and team when that reality finally hits, and I suspect it shouldn’t be our problem. King’s progression in the minors as a ready made replacement hit a injury snag, which has really stopped the real conversation of trading him/replacing him like-for-like tomorrow, but it still has to be out there as a conversation piece. Eventually the job should be Willits’ and when THAT time comes what really should happen is King moves from SS to 3B (if House never recovers) or to 2B (which he can do sitting on his head).

I’m assuming at this point every other expiring FA (Williams, Mikolas, Littell’s 2027 FA contract) won’t fetch anything, so we’re stuck with them.

So there it is. I’m seeing conversations from what sound like casual fans who are getting a little excited who are saying drastic things like, “if they trade him i’m done.” Well … that’s not the way you build for the next decade.

We’ll see; maybe they get swept this weekend and the decision is made.

I hate “rooting” for losses, but at this point that seems what it will take to ensure this team doesn’t do something dumb and think we should keep everyone for a run at a useless wild card spot.

Despite having a few days to go until the 7/27/26 deadline for signing its 2026 draftees, the Nats have gotten everything done well ahead of schedule, and according to Baseball America’s draft tracker have now signed 18 of their 20 draft picks. Based on the financial accounting, there’s no more bonus money to dole out, so this is the 2026 class.

With this post, I have updated the Nats Draft Tracker main page for the 2026 class, and have finished off the 2026 draft tab, where you can see signing bonuses compared to slot values and the running arithmetic of the entire draft bonus usage. If you’re interested in a players’ college stats, new this year i’ve got direct links to their college stats page to save you some googling. I also have links to their social media pages (X and IG) if you wanted to follow them.

I have also added all 18 draftees and the 7 known NDFAs to the Big Board in the XST section. As they’re assigned we’ll move them to a full season or FCL roster. With these 25 signings, as well as with all the moves we’ve made in recent days, the Minor League roster now sits (as far as I can tell) at exactly 165, or the target limit. Any new signings (MLFA or NDFA) from here on out will require a corresponding minor league move as the system is full (either a move to 60-day, a move to the Dev list, or a release).

Let’s talk about the signing bonuses, and who signed for more or less than predicted. Slot values are on the Draft tracker, and for the whole draft are here. You can go back to my two review posts for my quick predictions on what the players would sign for, which i’ll draw in here.

• 1st rounder Hacopian took a $433k haircut on his bonus, not surprising and about what one would expect. Most of the 1st rounders, especially in the top 10, don’t sign for slot, as teams basically play their “floors” against where they get picked and enact some savings. Hacopian signed for $5.7M, which is a bit more than the 13th overall slot value, and he probably would have slipped well past 13th overall had he not signed with us (the next three picks after #11 were HS picks, then a college catcher, then more prep picks). So Hacopian probably said, “well I can say yes to $5.7 now, or run the risk of falling into the mid teens where the slots are in the $4.8M-$5.2M range, so might as well say Yes to the Nats’ offer right now.”
• 2nd rounder Brunson ended up signing for $588k under slot, a big surprise for me since he was drafted #42 overall and sat right in that range on most of the draft boards. I thought this was a slot pick for sure. Nonetheless, big savings here and from Hacopian that then go to the next two kids.
• 3rd and 4th rounder Prep kids get big over-slot deals as expected: Williams got $2.5M, about $1.5M over slot and the equivalent of a early 2nd round pick. Harris took $1.5M on a slot value of $740k to buy him out of college, about the equivalent of a later 2nd rounder.
• This is what you do: we now have a 1st rounder and three 2nd round talents thanks to working the bonus figures properly.
• 5th rounder Cuvet signed basically for slot as predicted.
• 6th rounder Allen took about what I thought he’d take for a discount: I predicted $250k savings, he signs for $220k less than slot.
• It took more than I thought it would to sign 7th rounder Peterson: I thought he’d go for the $150k standard 11-20th round money, but it took $250k.
• Our 8th and 10th rounders both went for the standard Senior sign figure of $10k; honestly I’m happy the Nats do $10k and not the pittance of $1k that other shops do for these guys.
• 9th rounder Duger signed for exactly slot. I thought we might get $75k of savings here, but they didn’t need it with the big savings on Brunson, and at that point in the draft the team was probably just calling guys on their board and saying, “will you sign for slot right now?” until they got a Yes.

The 11th-20th rounders had some interesting bonus figures; in many years we just give everyone $150k and move on. Not this year.

• 11th and 12th rounders Moss and Dallas each got $25k more than the standard $150k, as I surmised in the review.
• 13th rounder Howard, a college grad student whose drafting we all questioned at the time, got $100k. This seems like a graduation gift on behalf of the team for a senior sign who at best should have gone in the 10th round for $10k. Why give him $100K? Something’s amiss here. But hey, its not my money.
• 14th, 19th, and 20th rounders were all college guys who took the standard $150k. 14th rounder Konstantinovsky makes sense for that figure, but the other two were odd. 19th rounder Brooks was a college senior (ok, technically a redshirt Junior) with a miserable batting average and little leverage; did it really take $150k to sign him, when they could probably get him as an NDFA next year for $20k? Our 20th rounder Siebert was a juco guy with a Tennessee commit who gook the $150kto my surprise; must not have had a great NIL deal on hand.
• It ended up taking $250k to get the IFA gambit Rivero, $100k over slot. Whether or not you think Rivero is “good,” this is still a big savings over the $750k he was offered by the Dodgers in the IFA market a year ago. If the Dodgers, who I think are the preeminent player development team in the sport, were willing to pay that much and we got him for a third less, I’ll take that as a win.
• The “last guy to sign who gets all the left over bonus money” seemed to be 18th rounder Ortiz, who I thought might be tougher to sign. He ended up getting $215k for an overslot deal, a weird amount that essentially was all the remaining leftover bonus money under the cap.
• As expected, once the two upper prep kids signed, the two prep kids drafted in the teens (#16 Murphy and #17 Galason) got cut loose; they’re the only 2 players not to sign in this class.

Bonus pool overall usage: If i have my calculations correct, and If I ignore all the BA reported signing bonuses that seem to be exactly $2,500 off for most of the bonuses, then the Nats left just $1,115 dollars on the table. Perfect usage.

• Total slot amount of $12,278,300
• plus 5% overage cushion of $613,905
• Total amount to spend: 12,892,225
• Total bonus dollars spent plus overages on the $150k/player in the 11-20th rounds: 12,891,110
• Left over: $1,115

That’s our 2026 class.

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One last note: Baseball America released its updated top 100 including 2026 draftees, which included 10 players from the 2026 class …. but not Hacopian, who just missed their top 100. But, to give you an idea of where Hacopian likely fits into our system, there’s 5 Nats in the BA top 100 right now:

• 15. Willits
• 39. King
• 55. Susana
• 68. Fitz-Gerald
• 87. Cruz

Outside the top 100 but who have been there before: Sykora, Ford, and Fein.

I’m guessing Hacopian will start at #6 in our system, just ahead of Sykora, Ford, and Fein, and just outside the BA top 100. If he pops immediately upon starting his pro career, he should push into the top 100 quickly.

The Nationals, in addition to their 20 rounds of picks, have generally signed a 1-2 Undrafted Free Agents (NDFAs) at the end of each draft. The last few years it’s been just a couple guys per year, but this year they signed a whole slew of them, some frankly promising, and were incredibly active in the days immediately following the draft. Not since 2022 have we seen this many NDFAs come on board.

This amount of guys is notable, because by and large each additional NDFA means someone has to make way within the organization (either to a dev list, or to the 60-day DL, or to get released altogether). I discussed in a comment on Nationalsprospects.com the below, but it bears repeating and cleaning up.

Farm systems under the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement are capped as to the number of players you can have rostered, both by level and overall. By level, the limits are:

• AAA: 28 active, 33 roster-able
• AA: 28 active, 33 roster-able
• High-A: 30 active, 33 roster-able
• Low-A: 30 active, 33 roster-able
• FCL: no actual defined limits; up to the total domestic cap roster-able. Target 33 players roster-able.
• (Note: there’s no limit or restrictions on DSL: these limits are domestic only)

So, 33 rostered players (either active or on the 7-day DL)*5 domestic levels = a total domestic limit of 165 players. Anyone in the following situation does not count against the 165 limit:

• 60-Day DL guys
• Developmental List guys
• 40-man Roster guys.
• Rehabbing players (who would otherwise get double counted on the big board).

I try to keep track of the running totals per team and for the system via XLS macros on the Big Board. As of this writing and as of the 2026 Draft I have us at 160 ( it was at 161 earlier this week before the Robert Hassell trade).

However, that 161 figure includes 40-man guys who are in the minors, who don’t count against that limit (11 guys in AAA on the 40-man right now before any call-ups post All-Star Break), so we have exactly 149 active players in domestic minors. We just drafted 20 guys, we’re probably going to sign 17-18 of them (which would put us at 167-168, meaning we’d have to shed a couple guys to get under the limit by the end of the month. However, if we have a slew of NDFAs, it’s one in, and one out. So, the more guys we sign, the more room we have to clear.

Now, players on 60 day/full season IL don’t count, nor do restricted list guys. So, it would probably be very easy to move 3 guys to one of these two lists. Just this week Erik Tolman for example moved off of the Developmental list where he’d been sitting for weeks. Hayes in AAA has spent most of the season on that list, pretty typical for backup/bullpen catcher types. There’s 3 catchers on the High-A roster; one of them can go on the dev list. And, there’s 8 guys on the 7-day DL in Low-A, some of whom who have been there since Mid April, so it seems that making space by moving guys to 60-day will be pretty easy.

However, at some point we’ll start to see some releases, since we’re adding the below NDFAs

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Back to the NDFAs. Let’s run through them; these guys lasted the entire 20 round draft w/o getting picked, but who can now sign for a $20k bonus figure. I’ll do some stat-analysis and background per what info I can find.

We may add a few more NDFAs to this list, if so I’ll update.

• Tony Neubeck, College grad/5th year senior LHP Starter from Indiana: Neubeck was in Indiana’s rotation all year, serving as their Ace/Friday Starter. 3rd team all Big-10. 3.95 ERA with 75 strikeouts to 27 walks over 70.2 innings. He features a Low-to-mid 90s fastball with carry, a slider, a plus-changeup and cutter. I mean, how does a Friday night starter for a major conference team completely fall through the entire draft? He sounds like someone we should have drafted in the mid-teens.
• Miles Smith, Redshirt Senior RHP reliever from Kansas State. So, the interesting thing about NDFAs is that they’re lottery tickets for just $20k. Smith’s college numbers were, frankly, awful his entire career. Freshman/Sophomore years in Juco: 8.38 ERA. Jr year: 19.29 ERA. Sr. year 7.01 ERA. So why did we sign him? Because he looked pretty solid in the MLB Draft League going on right now, where he’s had 8 games, 14IP with a 3.21 ERA and 19Ks in 14IP. So what the heck.
• Ciaran Caughey, Senior RHP starter from Kent State. Caughey was Kent State’s Saturday starter all year, posting a 8-2 record with a 3.39 ERA and 1.08 whip. 77/23 k/bb in 77ip. That’s solid. He finished his career with a 7ip/2h masterpiece in the MAC tournament, but Kent State fell short of the NCAAs in what many thought was a bit of a snub. Another excellent NDFA pick. He’s another who has been pitching in the Draft League.
• Cooper Carlgren, Senior RHP Swingman from Lamar.  Made 19 appearances and four starts with a 2-1 record and 4.44 ERA in 48.2 innings pitched with 53 strikeouts this year for Lamar. Had a solid start in the MLB Draft league to bolster his showing. He bounced around during his college career, playing two years of Juco, then one year at Washburn before finishing up at Lamar.
• Tyler Papenbrock, College Grad/5th year Sr LHP swing man from Louisiana. He was a 4-year starter in NAIA before trying one year with the Rajun’ Cajuns, where he served as a long-man/spot starter this season. He was 4-0 with a 5.36 ERA, a 1.56 whip. He had 29/25 K/BB ratio in 40ip. Hilariously, on his bio page at Louisiana, his major is listed as “undeclared” despite being a Grad student. That’s code word for, “majoring in baseball.”
• Trevor Moore, College Senior RHP reliever (closer) from Stanford. He pitched to a 3.92 ERA with 48 strikeouts to 23 walks over 43.2 innings. Mid-90s with cut-ride and a good slider. The Nats have a good history taking Stanford closers (Drew Storen).
• Signed 7/20/26: Kaleb Kantola, a College Grad/6th year RHP reliever from Lipscomb. Kantola ia a big dude 6’7″ who missed most of two full years with injury, so he’s finishing up his 6th collegiate season. He had a 1.95 ERA as a reliever out of Lipscomb’s pen,

Note: D1baseball’s NDFA tracker lists a 7th player to us at this time, but the source has him signing with another team. BA’s NDFA tracker has us with these 6 players for now.

Here’s part 2 of my overview of the 2026 Draft class, those players picked 11th -20th.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need.

• Nationals Draft Tracker: New for this year in the 2026 tab: links to instagram and twitter for each player (which we can use to verify signing if need be), as well as links to their college stats page directly.
• MLB’s Draft Tracker
• Baseball America Transfer portal: though, none of the 11-20th college players seem to be in the portal, likely a good sign for us to get them signed.

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Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick. Note: it’s quite rare for any of these picks to be ranked, so I’ll only include rankings if they exist.

• Baseball America Final pre-draft at 500 on 7/8/26.
• The Athletic/Keith Law final Draft top 100 big board.
• MLBPipeline final Draft Top 250 on 7/5/26
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel Final 250 ranked board
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen final Draft Board with around 150 players ranked.
• Prospects1500 Draft Rank: Top 100 for 2026.
• Baseball prospectus final Draft board 7/8/26 (paywall)

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• 11th Round, 316th overall: Weston Moss, a College Jr. RHP from Texas A&M

Ranks by major shops: BA=358

Moss was TAMU’s Sunday/#3 starter this season, posting a 5.46 ERA over 14 starts and 64.1 innings. 69/21 k/bb in 64IP. He was a reliever his first two years, then didn’t go drafted as a draft-eligible sophomore last year and moved into their rotation. Fringe average velocity, but he’s got a good frame and size (6’4″). Scouts think he can add velocity thanks to his mechanics, and can stay as a starter. He will sign, as most 11th rounders do, and may get a little extra cash to do so over the $150k standard.

Moss joins a solid group of 11th rounders that we’ve picked over the years, players who generally have had solid careers. 2025’s Moroknek has already been promoted this year, 2024’s Beeker was dominant out of the Low-A pen before getting hurt, 2022’s Luke Young is in the AAA bullpen, just promoted. 2010’s JT Arruda was a 6year org guy with a ton of AAA time, 2018’s Bartow made it to AA, etc.

• 12th Round, 346th overall: Matthew Dallas, a College Jr. LHP from Wake Forest

Ranks by major shops: none

Dallas was a major prep prospect; he started the gold medal game in 2022 for USA Baseball 18U. After sitting on the bench for Tennesee most of his freshman year he transferred to Wake Forest, where he was a rotation starter as sophomore. He was slotted into the Sunday starter spot for Wake this year, threw two games, then blew out his elbow in late March, requiring elbow surgery. The timing of the surgery is awful for Dallas: he likely cannot get back in time to even compete in the 2027 season, meaning he’d be looking at adding two full years to his college career. Given that timing, it works to the Nats’ favor; he should sign and get under the care of a pro team immediately, and when he’s healthy he’ll slot right into rookie ball instead. Tough break for him, but he can get some bonus money out of it and get on with his pro career.

• 13th Round, 376th overall: Cody Howard, a College Grad Student RHP from Texas

Ranks by major shops: none

Howard was a little-used RHP reliever by Texas his entire career. He only threw 16IP this season, and had an ERA in the 8s. It’s a weird pick at this juncture, especially for a 5th year senior/grad student. This smells like a pick made because he’s someone’s cousin, or a friend of a scout, and one I wouldn’t expect in the 13th round. I’ll be really curious to see what he signs for.

• 14th Round, 406th overall: Zack Konstantinovsky, a college Junior LHP from Rutgers

Ranks by major shops: none

Konstantinovsky (lord help me if I have to remember how to spell this guy’s name) was in Rutger’s rotation this season, mostly as their Saturday/#2 starter, and threw to a 4-5 record with a 5.48 ERA. 83/21 k/bb in 70ip, though with a .293 BAA. Not bad for the 14th round. He held his own when Rutgers went up against the likes of UCLA, and pitched admirably in the Big10 tourney before Rutgers went 2-and-out. No scouting report available anywhere; seems like a typical mid-major college starter who could have some value in the bullpen.

• 15th Round, 436th overall: Francisco Rivero, a Prep C from Canyon del Oro HS (AZ) (Arizona commit)

Ranks by major shops: none

Rivero is an interesting player. He tried an end-around gambit on the draft, moving from Arizona to Venezeula in order to try to establish IFA eligibility. The Dodgers signed him to a reported $700k bonus last year, but then MLB ruled him ineligible for the international draft, so he returned home to Arizona, re-enrolled in school, and here we are. He’s committed to Uof Arizona, but i’m guessing he wants to play pro, else he wouldn’t have tried the Venezeula gambit in the first place. I’d guess he signs for the $150k figure and comes on board.

• 16th Round, 466th overall: Anthony Murphy, a prep OF from Corona HS (CA) (LSU commit)

Ranks by major shops: BA: 159, MLB: 108, Espn: 146,

So, Murphy is essentially “Luke Williams” insurance; if negotiations with our two top HS picks Williams and/or Harris fall through, we can take that money and throw it at Murphy. He’s a significant prospect; he was the starting CF on the 2026 USA 18U national team, he’s been a starter on the powerhouse Corona HS for four years, and he’s committed to LSU, who have probably the biggest NIL budget in the sport, so you know he’s getting paid. It seems highly unlikely he comes on board. He should have been a 3rd or 4th rounder if he was going to sign; now it seems like LSU gets its leadoff hitter for the next three years as it tries to rebuild after a down 2026.

• 17th Round, 496th overall: Isaiah Galason, a prep SS from Houston County HS (GA) (Georgia Tech)

Ranks by major shops: BA: 345, Espn: 210

Galason is still a solid prep prospect, but not in the same range as Murphy. He’s still “Luke Williams” insurance though, in that he’s a top prep prospect who could be bought out of college for the right price. He’s an undersized SS with 70 speed but who BA’s scouting reports think may be a 2B longer term. Good hit tool, not a lot of power. He’s defense-first but also has a quick twitch bat that drives the ball, if not out of the park. Seems unlikely that he signs.

• 18th Round, 526th overall: Avery Ortiz, a college Jr. SS/2B from Oklahoma State.

Ranks by major shops: none

Ortiz was OSU’s starting SS … for 2 games, when he had a “lower body” injury that kept him out for nearly 2 months this season. He got back for 3 games in April, then out again until mid May. He missed a ton of time in 2025 as well, and likely is set to leave OSU unfulfilled; i can’t imagine going back for another season after he’s struggled to stay on the field all this time. He’s a sub-6-foot infielder, likely a SS/2B combo. No scouting report on him anywhere. I’d guess he’s going to sign, give pros a shot, even though he’s got eligibility left.

• 19th Round, 556th overall: Jack Brooks, a college senior OF (CF) from Oregon.

Ranks by major shops: none

Brooks has no scouting detail anywhere, and his stats don’t offer much promise: he slashed .236/.370/.391 while starting nearly every Oregon game this year in the outfield. He was a SS in high school, and i’d guess his primary skill is plus defense in the outfield. But a .236 hitter as a red-shirt junior seems like this may be a character guy, or a favorite of a local scout.

• 20th Round, 586th overall: Anson Siebert, a J2 RHP reliever (Tennessee commit)

Ranks by major shops: none

Siebert looked like he was the closer for his Juco team at Johnson County in Kansas; they went 67-3 this season. He’s been there two years, and has committed in the transfer portal to go to Tennessee. Does he want to skip a shot at the SEC for pro ball and $150K? I’m guessing this is a tougher sign; he may want a shot at better baseball. Plus, its SEC and Tennessee NIL money; probably not as much as a $150k signing bonus but it won’t be nothing. Tougher sign.

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So, of the 10 guys we drafted here, i’m guessing:

• Six (6) are most likely to sign (Moss, Dallas, Howard, Konstantinovsky, Rivero, Brooks
• Two (2) are maybes (Ortiz, Seibert)
• Two are no-way signing unless negotiations blow up with our two upper-round Prep kids (Murphy, Galason)

Which would leave us likely with a 17-18 player draft class, about what we’d expect.

Here’s a run through the first 10 picks we made this weekend. This post shows the ranks of our players on the various draft boards, plus a summary of any scouting reports/draft analysis I could find from the major pundits/shops.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week in as close to real-time as I can given my current employment status :-):

• Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2026 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick. New This year: i’m going to embed direct links to college stat pages for easy reference, since i’m looking them up anyway. For Prep kids, just a link to their Perfect Game profile, which will have video clips.
• MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.

As of this writing, I have updated the Draft Tracker main page for the 2026 class, and have populated the 2026 detailed tab.

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Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick.

• Baseball America Final pre-draft at 500 on 7/8/26.
• The Athletic/Keith Law final Draft top 100 big board.
• MLBPipeline final Draft Top 250 on 7/5/26
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel Final 250 ranked board
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen final Draft Board with around 150 players ranked.
• Prospects1500 Draft Rank: Top 100 for 2026.
• Baseball prospectus final Draft board 7/8/26 (paywall)

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• 1st Round, 11th overall: Chris Hacopian, a College Jr. 2B from Texas A&M

Ranks by major shops: BA=11, Law=34, MLB=14, ESPN=13, Fangraphs=8, Prospects1500=9

See here for the quick post I made specifically about Hacopian and my reaction. I won’t repeat that info here, but will note the interesting discrepancy of Hacopian on the ranking boards presented here. Every shop has him between 8-14 except … our friend Keith Law, ever the contrarian, whose writeup on Hacopian doesn’t really say anything critical of him except to note that he missed a month and hasn’t moved well since he returned. It’s almost like he dumped Hacopian way down when he got hurt, then never revisited him upon his return. I wonder where Law would have him if he had never gotten hurt. I can’t imagine, based on the consensus of his ranking in the class, that this is an under-slot pick by any means, so I’d expect him to sign at or near slot. Maybe he saves a little bit off of the $6.1M figure, money that we can throw at the two prep kids.

• 2nd round #42 overall: Chase Brunson, a College Jr. OF (CF) from Texas Christian

Ranks by major shops: BA=47, Law=24, MLB=50, ESPN=38 Fangraphs=52, Prospects1500=37

Brunson slashed .304/.462/.556 this year, and was a 3-year starter in CF for TCU. He’s got 50s or 55s across the board for every tool, showing promise everywhere but not a stand-out tool in any of the 5 disciplines. Law likes him the most, saying he’s got 20/20 capabilities with even more power there, and even if he can’t stay in CF he’s got the arm strength for RF. By all accounts he was better in 2025 but made adjustments this season, perhaps because he split time in CF with another 1st round talent teammate in Sawyer Strosnider. That caused him to slip from being a late 1st rounder to an early 2nd rounder, and I sense this could be a steal for us. I’d guess this is another slot pick, no real savings here.

• 3rd round #78 overall: Luke Williams, a Prep SS from Franklin Regional HS (near Pittsburgh, PA)

Ranks by major shops: BA=99, Law=outside top 100, MLB=90, ESPN=57, Fangraphs=67, Prospects1500=83

Williams is a Vanderbilt commit (one shop has him going to UVA but everywhere else says Vandy), but a 3rd round selection with a slot value of slightly more than $1M should buy him out of that with enough cash. I’m guessing he goes a bit over-slot, especially since Vandy is a premier college destination for players and they have a ton of money. Both BA and MLB put 70 grades on him for speed and arm strength. He’s a true SS with enough arm to handle CF if he can’t cut it there, and he’s got more than a bit of power with 50s there. The big worry here is an underdeveloped hit tool, but that’s not uncommon for a prep kid.

• 4th round #106 overall: Cooper Harris, a Prep RHP from Flower Mound HS ( a suburb of Dallas, TX)

Ranks by major shops: BA=83, Law=55, MLB=76, ESPN=110, Fangraphs=76, Prospects1500=76

Across the board, we seemed to get real value from this pick. Law likes him a ton, describing him as a 3/4 starter with clean mechanics who a good franchise can easily develop. Is that the Nats? We’ll see. He’s super young (he just turned 18 before the draft), sits 94-96, has a huge spin rate that naturally misses bats. BA gives him a 60 fastball and two 55s on his primary breaking pitches, which sounds like a good sign. I suspect a Texas kid with a commit to Texas will need more than 4th round money, so look for this to be an overslot deal too. As much as prep RHP are risky, this isn’t a 100mph kid with crazy mechanics; this sounds like a player who is getting guys out without the max effort that leads to injury.

• 5th round #138 overall: Daniel Cuvet, a College Jr. 3B from University of Miami

Ranks by major shops: BA=97, Law=87, MLB=120, ESPN=152, Fangraphs=unranked, Prospects1500=unranked

Cuvet, for those who pay attention to such things, was a consensus pre-season All American heading into this season after hitting 24 homers as a freshman and then posting a .372/.450/.708 slash-line as a sophomore. He’s a big dude: 6’3″ 240, with 70 grade power. The “ding” on him was swing and miss, which he seemed to be cleaning up early this season with more walks than Ks (30/33 K/BB in his 41 games. His season was cut short by a stress fracture in his back, something that had been bugging him all year and dampening his stats even before he hung ’em up. He stopped playing by the end of April, and missed the rest of the season. Question is this: is he ready to turn pro, or does he want to go back to school to try to increase his stock? It’s no guarantee; he could get hurt again next year and be looking at a teen-round bonus, or he could get squeezed based on lack of remaining eligibility. He played too much in 2026 to redshirt. So, odds are he’ll sign for something likely around slot and move to a pro organization to rehab and move forward. A healthy Cuvet looks really promising, and reminds one of Yohandy Morales, another slugger from Miami who was a 3B in college but who probably becomes at 1B in the pros. If he returns to his sophomore year form, this could be a steal of a pick in the 5th.

• 6th round #167 overall: Cooper Allen, a College Jr. RHP (starter) from UNC-Wilmington

Ranks by major shops: unranked anywhere.

The first of our underslot picks to pay the prep players, Allen was UNC-Wilmington’s Saturday Starter this season (aka their #2 starter), started 15 games and went 8-4 with a 2.79 ERA for the team. 96/23 K/BB in 87 IP, solid BAA of .210. Seems like a solid college pitcher. His scouting report at BA reports that he sits 90-91, with a mid-80s cutter that he uses to get guys out. He’s undersized (6’1″ 205) and seems to rely less on velocity and more on pitching to get guys out. He’s a college junior with eligibility left, but isn’t a huge prospect, so I’m suspecting he’ll take a haircut on his slot value ($410k) and will turn pro, with little left to prove in college. He is not currently in the transfer portal.

• 7th round #196 overall: Gage Peterson, a College Jr. RHP (starter) from Appalachian State

Ranks by major shops: BA: 344. Nobody else has him ranked.

Peterson went 8-1 and posted a 3.28 ERA in 15 starts and 85 innings, with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate for App State as their Sunday Starter (aka their #3), who he joined for his junior year after two years at a Juco. He sits 90-94 but is a big frame guy who BA thinks can throw much harder. 107/34 K/BB in 89 innings; that’s solid. He’s a big guy (6’5″) who scouts seem to dream on. BA’s scouting report thought he was an 8th-12th rounder; we got him in the 7th, which tells me he’s taking something closer to the $150k range instead of slot of $322k. He is not currently in the transfer portal.

• 8th round #226 overall: Max Hansmann, a College Senior RHP (starter) from Evansville

Ranks by major shops: none.

Our first senior/bonus pool savings pick, Hansmann was the Friday night starter for Evansville. He had solid numbers: 4-3 in 15 s tarts, 3.99 ERA.1.38 WHIP. A K/inning. But we’re talking about Evansville and the Missouri Valley Conference, so impressions should be tempered. I don’t think this is a $1k signing, but I can’t imagine him getting much more than $10k. Boston Smith was a senior draftee who got $50k last year; I’d expect Hansmann to be somewhere in-between. I cannot find any scouting reports on him, even on BA, which kind of tells you what you need to know about the guy. He is not currently in the transfer portal.

• 9th round #256 overall: Cashel Dugger, a College Jr. C from UCLA

Ranks by major shops: BA: #333

Dugger’s rank is entirely driven on his defensive capabilities and skill at handling a pitching staff. He slashed .251/.378/.382 this season, and has never slugged .400 in his career. His BA scouting report basically says he’s set to have a long career as a backup catcher in some organization, which is what it is. I can’t imagine he signs for a ton of money (slot is $216k), and I can’t imagine he agreed to be picked unless he intended to go pro. UCLA as a team kind of peaked this year, sitting at #1 the entire season with a slew of top players, and for Dugger to stick around for a rebuilding season may seem out of the cards. I’ll bet he signs for something slightly below slot but a bit above the $150k standard 11-20th round figure. He is not currently in the transfer portal.

• 10th round #286 overall: Nick Williams, a 5th year Senior OF from Michigan State

Ranks by major shops: none

Williams was Michigan State’s leading hitter this season, slashing .333/.434/.540 with a bit of power and a few SBs. He’s probably limited positionally to a corner due to his size and lack of speed, but could be a nice older presence on a team. Odds are this is a super bonus saving pick, in the $10k or less space. But, he seems like a nice pick here.

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So, that being said, Here’s what I think the team does with its bonus dollars.

• Over Slot picks: Williams, Harris
• Slot picks (or close to it): Hacopian, Brunson, Cuvet
• Under Slot picks: Allen (250k savings), Peterson ($150k savings), Hansmann ($225k savings), Dugger ($75k savings), Williams ($190k savings)

So that would give the team right around $900k to work with before the 5% cushion of an additional $600k. Can $1.5M get both Williams and Harris signed? Maybe: if Hacopian takes a haircut off his $6.1M slot, that extra money could seal the deal. Say Hacopian signed for $5.5m; that’d be an extra $600k to throw at the two HS players and could get it done, bringing both of them into the $1.75m range easily.

I’ll post the 11th->20th round picks analysis/overview in the next post later this week.

This is a running post with all star notes for the team, updated for 2026. It includes a complete history of our All Star selections dating to the franchise’s beginnings in 2005, and may look familiar as I recycle the old content every year.

Nats All Star Game Trivia: updated for 2026.

• All-time leader in Nats all-star appearances: Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer, both with 6 appearances with the Nats.  (these numbers are only appearances with us, not including other franchises)
• All-time leader in All-Star Game starts: Harper, who had 5 starts.
• Total number of Starters in the history of the Franchise: Now is 12; Harper 5 times, Scherzer 3 times, and one each for Soriano, Murphy, Zimmerman and Abrams with his 2026 selection.
• Most all-star players named in a single year: 5 in both 2016 and 2017.
• Least all-star game players named in a single year: 1 in multiple years during the “dark years” of 2006 through 2011, and again in the early 2020s as the team rebuilds.
• Most unlikely All-Star: Probably Dmitri Young or Cristian Guzman, both being the “someone has to make the all star team” nominations in our 100 loss period in the late 2000s.

(* == All-Star game starter)

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2026

• Nationals All-Star Representative: CJ Abrams*, James Wood, Foster Griffin (late addition)
• Snubs: none.
• Narrative: Abrams is named the starter after beating out Mookie Betts in a final fan vote to be the starter. It is the first time we’ve had a starting SS all-star in the history of the franchise, and just the 12th time we’ve had a starter since the franchise moved to DC. Wood was in the running for starting as well but eventually fell behind in the race. There really wasn’t any other obvious snubs: the next best performing player on the roster is the unheralded off-season FA signing from Japan Griffin, who sits in the top 10 of most pitching categories at the halfway point and whose last start prior to the All Star Break got him to 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA. He was deservedly added as an injury replacement in the week leading up to the event. Ironically, all three players have been the subject of heavy trade rumors both leading up to the season and through out the season, as the team stays within shouting distance of the last wild card spot well into July.

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2025

• Nationals All-Star Representative: James Wood, MacKenzie Gore (both 1st timers)
• Snubs: CJ Abrams
• Narrative: No surprises here; both Wood and Gore have been near league-best this season. Is it surprising the team got two ASG representatives as a last-place team? Absolutely. Last year’s AS rep Abrams, if we were a 1st place team instead of last place, likely would have gotten his 2nd AS naming since he enters the AS break with a 144 OPS+ figure but is skipped due to the deep SS field in the National League. Wood also got into the HR derby (which we didn’t separately cover this year) but went one-round and out.

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2024

• Nationals All-Star Representative: CJ Abrams, Kyle Finnegan (both 1st time)
• Snubs: Trevor Williams (on dl)
• Narrative: Abrams was initially our sole representative until Finnegan was added at the last minute as an injury replacement. Williams should have been the named representative, sitting in the top 10 in most pitching categories, but got hurt a few weeks before the ASG and probably won’t return for weeks afterwards. We have a couple other players putting up decent seasons (Winker, Irvin) but none really All Star worthy.

Four Ex-nats appeared in the 2024 ASG, three of them starters (Harper, Turner, Soto). Amazingly Reynaldo Lopez represented Atlanta. Erick Fedde didn’t make the ASG but is considered one of the best trade prospects of the year. Wish we could have gotten these two guys to pitch like this for us.

2023

• Nationals All-Star Representative: Josiah Grey (1st)
• Snubs: None really
• Narrative. The Nats were bad this year, and were one of those teams that had to dig deep to find a sole representative. Grey was our opening day starter and was our best starter for the bulk of the year. We had some other players who ended up having decent seasons (Candelario, Thomas, Harvey) but they would have too much competition in their respective positions to earn a spot.

2022

• Nationals All-Star Representative: Juan Soto (2nd)
• Snubs: Josh Bell
• Narrative. Soto gets his 2nd ASG appearance, probably more on reputation than performance for 2022. He’s only hitting .243 as of the naming, but is getting on base at nearly a .400 clip thanks to his league-leading walk figure. Meanwhile, the best hitter on the team by far is Bell, who is snubbed from making his own 2nd ASG appearance likely a couple of weeks before he’s traded to a contender. Well, when you’re a last place team, you’re only getting one guy on the roster. Soto also gets into the Home Run Derby, which he wins. However, the story of the week was the leaking of contract talks breaking down, with Soto turning down a $440M deal and the team announcing they’re entertaining trade talks. Soto was traded a few weeks after the All-Star game, in a deal so monumental it has its own wikipedia page. We end up getting MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, C.J. Abrams, James Wood, Jarlin Susana, Luke Voit for Soto and Josh Bell package; Gore, Abrams, and Wood become all-stars within just a couple of years.

2021

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, Max Scherzer* (substitute addition)
• Possible Snubs: none
• Narrative: The Nats scuffle into the all-star week on fumes thanks to losing 7 of 9 against NL West teams and suffering perhaps one too many injuries. Scherzer was not initially named, which I immediately listed as a huge snub. But then not only was he added as a replacement player … he was then named the damn starter. How is that possible? Anyway, among our other named players Schwarber’s injury prevents him from playing, but Soto gets into the Home Run derby, where he upsets #1 seed Shohei Ohtani before losing in the next round.

2020

• Nationals All-Star representatives: (No Game)
• Who would have made it: Juan Soto
• Narrative: Covid-19 forced the cancellation of the ASG and the shortening of the season from 162 to 60 games. Nonetheless, the season that Juan Soto put up should have been recognized, even un-officially. He hit .351/.490/.695 in 47 games for an astounding 221 OPS+ figure, the 33rd best ever season posted by this figure. But, since Soto got hit with Covid and had to miss the first two weeks … he did not qualify for batting titles and was left out of the ASG and MVP conversations.

2019

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon
• Possible Snubs: Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg, Howie Kendrick, Trevor Rosenthal (just kidding)
• Narrative: Rendon finally is named to an all-star team, having played in the shadows of other more well-known NL third basemen for  years.  Arbitrary Endpoints: Rendon is 7th in baseball among hitters in total fWAR since 2014.  7th.  In the entire league.  And this is his first ASG.  Meanwhile Scherzer is the obvious pick, though i’m not sure he gets the start this year.  Scherzer leads the NL in bWAR … but Hyun-Jin Ryu is having an amazing season and could get the nod (indeed, he has).  Soto’s numbers are solid, as good as his rookie campaign, but he started slow and the story-line surrounding the Nats this season has overshadowed his production.  Strasburg actually has more bWAR than Rendon … but his numbers are solid, not all-star good.  Kendrick would never have gotten a nod, but he should be a shoe-in for comeback player of the year for the season he’s having.  Others of note: Sean Doolittle was amazing for most of the first half but has tired and his numbers slipped.  Patrick Corbin‘s debut season has been solid, not flashy, and he has the same issues as Strasburg had.

Post publishing update: neither of our two representatives are actually going to Cleveland.  Rendon staying home to rehab a nagging quad injury, and Scherzer is traveling but will not pitch b/c he threw a start just ahead of the game.  Both players were replaced by non-Nats … which was a shame b/c a like-for-like with Strasburg for Scherzer seemed like the right thing to do.

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2018

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer*, Sean Doolittle
• Possible Snubs: Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
• Narrative: For the home-town All Star Game, Harper gets the starting nod from the fans despite his abhorrent season at the plate (his slash line on 7/8/18: .219/.371/.475).  However, by making the ASG, Harper now keeps his promise to participate in the Home Run Derby one last time before hitting free agency.   There’s no real “snubs” on this Nationals team; The #2 player on the team in terms of seasonal bWAR is Trea Turner but he’s not exactly having a head-turning season.  He was named to the “last 5 ballot” but was a huge long-shot to make it (update; he didn’t: the very deserving Jesus Aguilar did).  Anthony Rendon is having his typical under-rated season and got no love from the voters over the more famous Nolan Arenado (a common refrain when it comes to Gold Gloves/Silver Sluggers too).  None of our starters besides Scherzer are really deserving; Stephen Strasburg was having a decent but not spectacular season but missed a month and is on the D/L.  Nor is any of the bullpen past Doolittle.  Its an odd-season where a team-wide malaise is contributing to the team hovering at .500 at the All Star Break.  Only Juan Soto really is deserving … but he was never going to make the ASG (not when recent more spectacular rookies failed to make it) and thanks to his missing all of April and most of May he wasn’t on any ballots and may struggle to win the RoY over guys who have played longer this season.  Scherzer is named to the team on 7/8/18 was named the  NL starter for the 2nd year running on 7/16/18.

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2017

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Daniel Murphy*, Ryan Zimmerman*, Max Scherzer*, Stephen Strasburg
• Snubs: Anthony Rendon, Gio Gonzalez
• Narrative: For the second  year in a row, the Nats are well and properly represented in the All Star Game.  We have three starters named in the field, including Zimmerman who beats out a slew of 1B sluggers in the NL to not only make the team but get his first start.  Its also likely i’ll be editing this post and adding in Scherzer as an additional starter; he is the obvious choice to start the game for the NL given his first half production (7/10/17 update: yes indeed we did).  Rendon is having a very quiet solid season and is in the “last 5” popular vote, but he seems unlikely to win given that last year’s MVP Kris Bryant is also in the voting (Update: neither guy got in).  Gonzalez misses out despite having a better first half than Strasburg by nearly any statistic; he’s having a career year but seems unlikely to get rewarded with his 3rd ASG appearance.  There’s no other real snub from our 2017 team; certainly there’s nobody in the bullpen meriting a spot, and Trea Turner‘s torrid 2016 2nd half did not translate into the 2017 season (not to mention, he’s had two separate D/L trips).  Once again i’m slightly perturbed that Harper continues to refuse to participate in the HR derby; why the reticence?  Its a fun event that is quickly becoming better than the actual game itself and practically every other slugger is participating.  Is he afraid to lose?  On a larger scale, i’m really happy to see (finally) that deserving rookies are named: Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger are both named and are both on the inside track for ROY awards; too many times in the past we see deserving rookies unnamed.  On July 10th, the fourth Nat starter was named: Scherzer got the starting pitcher nod, a first for the Nats.  August Update: Rendon’s omission is looking even more ridiculous; he’s top 5 in the league in bWAR.

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2016

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos, Max Scherzer (named as replacement for Strasburg on 7/8/16),
• Possible Snubs: Danny Espinosa, Tanner Roark
• Narrative: The four obvious candidates from the Nats this year were all initially correctly selected, though voting shenanigans out of Chicago elected Ben Zobrist over Daniel Murphy by a scant 500 votes.   I thought perhaps Strasburg would have a chance to start the game, given his 12-0 record, but it seems the team pre-empted any such thought when Scherzer’s naming occurred.  For the first time writing this post, I can’t really name any “snubs” and the team has (finally?) earned the proper respect it deserves in terms of naming its players properly.  Espinosa had a week for the ages just prior to the end of voting but really stood little chance of selection in the grand scheme of things.  He’s not really a “snub” but is worthy of mention based on his resurgent year.  At the break, Espinosa ranked 3rd in NL fWAR but 7th or 8th in bWAR thanks to differing defensive value metrics, so maybe/maybe not on him being a “snub.”  As pointed out in the comments, even I missed the sneaky good season Roark is having; he’s 12th in the NL in bWAR at the break and 9th in fWAR but was left off in favor of any number of starters that stand below him in value rankings.  Unfortunately for fans (and for Harper’s “Make Baseball Fun again” campaign, he opted to skip the Home Run Derby again.  I guess its kind of like the NBA superstars skipping the dunk contest; the Union should really do a better job of helping out in this regard.  The new format is fantastic and makes the event watchable again; is it ego keeping him from getting beat by someone like Giancarlo Stanton?

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2015

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Max Scherzer
• Possible Snubs: Yunel Escobar, Drew Storen
• Narrative: Harper not only made it in as a starter for the 2nd time, he led the NL in votes, setting a MLB record for total votes received.  This is no surprise; Harper’s easily in the MVP lead for the NL thanks to his amazing first half (his split at the half-way point of the season: .347/.474/.722 with 25 homers and an astounding 225 OPS+).  I guess he won’t be earning the “Most overrated player” award next year.  That Harper is electing to skip the Home run derby in a disappointment; his father is nursing an arm injury can cannot throw to him in the event.  In a weird year for the Nats, the only other regular worth mentioning is newly acquired Escobar, who is hitting above .300 and filling in ably at multiple positions that, prior to this year, he had never played.  Storen is having another excellent regular season … but at a time when mandatory members from each team often leads to other closers being selected (there are 5 NL closers and 7 AL relievers), the odds of him making the All-Star team were always going to be slim.  Scherzer deservedly makes the team and probably would have been the NL starter; he’s got sub 2.00 ERA and FIP and leads all NL pitchers in WAR at the mid-way point of the season.  But his turn came up in the final game of the first half, making him ineligible for the game and forcing his replacement on the roster.

As a side note, the 2015 All-Star game will go down as the “Ballot-Gate” game thanks to MLB’s short-sighted plan to allow 30+ online ballots per email address.  This led to severe “ballot stuffing” by the Kansas City Royals fans, led to MLB  having to eliminate 60 million+ fraudulent ballots, but still led to several Royals being elected starters over more deserving candidates.

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2014

• Nationals All-Star representative: Jordan Zimmermann (Update post-publishing: Zimmermann strained a bicep, and had to withdraw from the ASG.  For a bit it looked like the Nats wouldn’t even have a representative, until Tyler Clippard was named on 7/13/14).
• Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Anthony Rendon, Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen
• Narrative: Zimmermann’s been the best SP on the best pitching staff in the majors this year, and thus earns his spot.  I find it somewhat odd that a first place team (or near to it) gets just one representative on the team (as discussed above).  Rendon tried to make the team via the “last man in” voting, but historically Nationals have not fared well in this competition (especially when better known players from large markets are in the competition, aka Anthony Rizzo from the Chicago Cubs), and indeed Rendon finished 4th in the last-man voting.  LaRoche is having a very good season, almost single handedly carrying the Nats offense while major parts were out injured, but he’s never going to beat out the slew of great NL first basemen (Joey Votto couldn’t even get into this game).  Soriano has quietly put together one of the best seasons of any closer in the game; at the time of this writing he has a 1.03 ERA and a .829 whip; those are Dennis Eckersley numbers.  But, the farce that is the all-star game selection criteria (having to select one player from each team) means that teams need a representative, and deserving guys like Soriano get squeezed.  Then, Soriano indignantly said he wouldn’t even go if named as a replacement … likely leading to Clippard’s replacement selection.  The same goes for non-closer Storen, who sports a sub 2.00 ERA on the year.  Advanced stats columnists (Keith Law) also think that Stephen Strasburg is a snub but I’m not entirely sure: he may lead the NL in K’s right now and have far better advanced numbers than “traditional,” but its hard to make an argument that a guy with a 7-6 record and a 3.50+ ERA is all-star worthy.

2013

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Bryce Harper*, Jordan Zimmermann
• Snubs: Stephen Strasburg, Ian Desmond
• Narrative: Harper comes in 3rd in the NL outfielder voting, ahead of some big-time names, to become only the second Nationals position player elected as an All-Star starter.  He was 4th in the final pre-selection vote, so a big last minute push got him the starter spot.   Harper also becomes the first National to participate in the Home Run Derby.   Zimmermann was 12-3 heading into the game and was on mid-season Cy Young short lists in July in a breakout season.  Strasburg’s advanced stats are all better than Zimmermann’s, but his W/L record (4-6 as the ASG) means he’s not an all-star.  It also probably doesn’t help that he missed a few weeks.  Desmond loses out to Troy Tulowitzki, Everth Cabrera and Jean Segura.  Tulowitzki was having a very solid year and was a deserving elected starter, while Cabrera and Segura are both having breakout seasons.  Desmond was on the “Final vote” roster, but my vote (and most others’ I’m guessing) would be for Yasiel Puig there ([Editor Update: Desmond and Puig lost out to Freddie Freeman: I still wished that Puig finds a way onto the roster but ultimately he did not and I believe the ASG was diminished because of it).   Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Zimmerman, and Rafael Soriano are all having solid but unspectacular years and miss out behind those having great seasons.

2012

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Ian Desmond, Bryce Harper
• Possible Snubs: Adam LaRoche, Craig Stammen
• Narrative: The two SPs Strasburg and Gonzalez were the obvious candidates, and my personal prediction was that they’d be the only two candidates selected.  Gonzalez’ first half was a prelude to his 21-win, 3rd place Cy Young season.  The inclusion of Desmond is a surprise, but also a testament to how far he’s come as a player in 2012.  Harper was a last-minute injury replacement, but had earned his spot by virtue of his fast start as one of the youngest players in the league.  Of the “snubs,” LaRoche has had a fantastic come back season in 2012 but fared little shot against better, more well-known NL first basemen.  Stammen was our best bullpen arm, but like LaRoche fared little chance of getting selected during a year when the Nats had two deserving pitchers selected.

2011

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Tyler Clippard
• Possible Snubs: Danny Espinosa, Michael Morse, Drew Storen, Jordan Zimmermann
• Narrative: While Clippard was (arguably) the Nats best and most important reliever, I think Zimmermann was a more rightful choice.  He was 10th in the league in ERA at the time of the selections and has put in a series of dominant performances.  Meanwhile Espinosa was on pace for a 28-homer season and almost a certain Rookie-of-the-Year award (though a precipitous fall-off in the 2nd half cost him any realistic shot at the ROY), and perhaps both players are just too young to be known around the league.  Lastly Morse is certainly known and he merited a spot in the “last man in” vote sponsored by MLB (though he fared little chance against popular players in this last-man-in voting).

2010

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Matt Capps
• Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg
• Narrative: Capps was clearly deserving, having a breakout season as a closer after his off-season non-tender from the Pirates.  The 3-4-5 hitters Zimmerman-Dunn-Willingham all had dominant offensive seasons as the team improved markedly from its 103-loss season.  But perhaps the surprise non-inclusion was Strasburg, who despite only having a few starts as of the all-star break was already the talk of baseball.  I think MLB missed a great PR opportunity to name him to the team to give him the exposure that the rest of the national media expected.  But in the end, Capps was a deserving candidate and I can’t argue that our hitters did anything special enough to merit inclusion.

2009

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Ryan Zimmerman
• Possible Snubs: Adam Dunn
• Narrative: The addition of Dunn and Willingham to the lineup gave Zimmerman the protection he never had, and he produced with his career-best season.  His first and deserved all-star appearance en-route to a 33 homer season.  Dunn continued his monster homer totals with little all-star recognition.

2008

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Cristian Guzman
• Possible Snubs: Jon Rauch
• Narrative: The first of two “hitting rock-bottom” seasons for the team; no one really merited selection.  Zimmerman was coming off of hamate-bone surgery in November 2007 and the team was more or less awful across the board.  Rauch performed ably after Cordero went down with season-ending (and basically career-ending) shoulder surgery.   Guzman’s selection a great example of why one-per-team rules don’t make any sense.  Guzman ended up playing far longer than he deserved in the game itself by virtue of the 15-inning affair.

2007

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Dmitri Young
• Possible Snubs: Ryan Zimmerman, Shawn Hill (though I wouldn’t argue for either)
• Narrative: Young gets a deserved all-star appearance en route to comeback player of the year.  Zimmerman played a full season but didn’t dominate.  Our 2007 staff gave starts to 13 different players, most of whom were out of the league within the next year or two.  Not a good team.

2006

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Alfonso Soriano*
• Possible Snubs: Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Chad Cordero
• Narrative: Soriano made the team as an elected starter, the first time the Nats have had such an honor.  Our pitching staff took massive steps backwards and no starter came even close to meriting a spot.  Cordero was good but not lights out as he had been in 2005.  Soriano’s 40-40 season is a poster child for “contract year” production and he has failed to come close to such production since.  The team was poor and getting worse.  Johnson had a career year but got overshadowed by bigger, better first basemen in the league (a recurring theme for our first basemen over the years).

2005

• Nationals All-Star representatives: Livan Hernandez, Chad Cordero
• Possible Snubs: Nick Johnson, John Patterson.
• Narrative: The Nats went into the All Star break surprisingly in first place, having run to a 50-31 record by the halfway point.  Should a first place team have gotten more than just two representatives?  Perhaps.  But the team was filled with non-stars and played far over its head to go 50-31 (as evidenced by the reverse 31-50 record the rest of the way).

So, one of the challenges of having a draft on a Saturday is, it’s awfully hard to find time to do a full comprehensive reaction in a timely manner. So, this will be somewhat brief, but wanted to get a conversation out there real quick.

In this year’s first round, the Nats at #11 take Chris Hacopian, 2B from TAMU. He’s a DC area native; born in Gaithersburg, grew up in Potomac, went to Churchill, and spent his first two college seasons locally at Maryland (click here for his PG profile). He was at UMD with his older brother, and upon his graduation Hacopian entered the transfer portal and went to TAMU. Hacopian was ready for better competition than what UMD gave him; he destroyed big 10 pitching his sophomore year. He wasn’t awful in the Cape Cod league after his sophomore year (he destroyed the NECL after his freshman year).

His junior season at TAMU he slashed .319/.405/.578 with more walks than Ks and some power (11 homers). He played 3B and SS for Maryland, and initially was set to play SS for Tamu as well, but ended up at 2B instead thanks to some limitations in his arm strength and lateral motion. I think he’s profiling as a 2B/LF type in the pros. His leading tool is his Hit tool, where he was one of the best pure hitters in the draft and has a 60 grade from MLBpipeline.com. They give him a current 50 power grade, but something tells me this guy can improve on that as well. I think he’s a pro hitter who won’t chase, hits the ball hard, can power it up when he wants to, and who should move through the ranks quickly. He had some injury issues this year, and by most accounts is a stiff, awkward athleticism guy who may struggle to stick even at 2B.

Hacopian was mocked to the Nats pretty frequently in the end, with the major pundits all over the pick. The way the 1st round worked out, if the Nats were after a college hitter, then they got the one that made the most sense; Burress, Gracia, and Bell all went just before Hacopian, and the next three picks were all HS guys (Gringlinger, Condon, Lombard). They passed on the toolsy Lebron, as well as Ace Reese, who went 24th and was clearly not in the near-top10 level. They also passed on all the prep projects, which is interesting and indicative of what this new front office is thinking after last year’s prep-heavy draft.

My judgement: the way the draft worked out, he was the “right” pick if the target was a College bat, with all the other candidates going before him. He could be a fast mover, maybe in the majors by end of 2027.

I published the “way too early” Phase 1 Mock draft post in April, covering all the very early mocks plus those that hadn’t really taken into account a big chunk of the spring season. Then, I published Phase 2 mock draft review on 6/8/26, with a deeper dive into analysis and some macro draft thoughts. That Phase 2 post ended up being rather lengthy; we’re still technically in that “weeks leading up to the draft” portion of the Mock Draft season, without a ton of movement. However, by the time you read this HS is done, College is done, and top prospects are sitting at home fielding phone calls from interested teams (1st rounders aren’t likely to go spend a couple weeks playing summer wood bat, but lesser players may in order to get some last minute impress-the-scouts views).

Since the mocks continue to roll in, here’s another post. This time, I’m separating out the “Draft Class Ranks” from the “Mock Drafts” since they have different aims. I’ve captured these draft boards mostly so that I can reference them in my 2026 draft class post, to kind of show where players were ranked that we ended up picking.

I’ll just be adding all the “final” mocks to this post since the draft starts two days after I posted.

Draft Board/Draft Ranks by major Pundit:

• The Athletic/Keith Law Draft top 100 5/14/26, updated on 7/3/26 to his final Draft top 100 big board.
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel top 150 Draft Ranks 5/17/26, updated on 7/8/26 to be his Final 250 ranked board
• Baseball America Top 500 Draft Board 5/27/26, then updated Baseball America top 500 Draft Board 6/24/26. This board was finalized pre-draft at 500 on 7/8/26.
• Baseball America published a Top 500 Prep-only list 6/5/26
• Baseball Prospectus Draft board 5/28/26: (paywall), and their final Draft board 7/8/26 (paywall)
• MLBPipeline Top 200 Draft Prospects 5/29/26, updated to Top 250 on 7/5/26
• D1Baseball Top 250 College-Only Draft Prospects 6/4/26, then their final Top 250 College-only draft prospects 7/4/26
• D1Baseball All American Teams 6/25/26: not draft related, but nearly the entire 1st team has been mentioned in these mock draft posts.

Also, I’m collecting 2026 Draft Reference material here for eventual use in my Draft recaps.

• MLB.com’s Draft Guide, with links to all MLB and MLBpipeline’s resources
• MLB Draft Tracker: the best guide to the draft as it occurs.
• Baseball America’s Draft Tracker: which often times gets signings and bonus dollars faster/more accurately than MLB
• MLB Draft Order: at MLB.com
• Total bonus Pools and Bonus value of every pick
• The Nats Draft Tracker, with a new 2026 Draft Tab that i’ve already pre-populated with slot values.
• MLB Draft Order at my own resource, which shows all the picks as they’ve evolved, been traded, lost.
• The Athletic’s 2026 Draft guide
• The Athletic’s 2026 Draft Tracker
• D1Baseball Draft Tracker

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Here’s the mocks, starting with those released right after my last post

• The Athletic/Keith Law Mock 2.0 6/10/26: Lackey, Bell, Cholowsky, Emerson, Flora. This is a crazy departure from basically every other mock we’ve seen in the cycle. Nats at #11 are on Chris Hacopian, the TAMU 2B with ties to the DC area (Churchhill HS then two years at Maryland), though he also mentions Jared Grindlinger as a name that the Nats are tied to at this pick. In Law’s mock, other names we’d like to see like Burress are gone.
• CBSSports/Mike Axisa 6/12/26 mock: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Pretty standard. Nats at #11 on Grindlinger, saying that the Nats were heavily scouting his last few HS games.
• MLBPipeline/Jonathan Mayo One-month away Mock 6/12/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. No real change for Mayo over the last few mocks for the top 5. Nats at #11 he now has Justin Lebron, the very tooled up Alabama SS who has been all over the map this draft season, from an early top 5 pick to late 1st round. In this scenario, both Burress, and Hacopian are gone, as is Bell (who Law has going super early), the Nats leave Grindlinger alone, and pass on college guys like Curiel, Flukey, and Reese.
• Baseball America Staff Draft 6/15/26: Lackey, Cholowsky, Emerson, Booth, Curiel. Nats “GM” at #11 got Ryder Helfrick, C from Arkansas. The guys just after the Helfrick pick: Gringlinger, Hacopian, Gracia, Reese, and Lebron… basically 5 guys who I think are better picks than Helfrick. BA warns that this is not a “mock draft” but instead what their staff picking at those spots would do, but Curiel in the top 5 seems crazy.
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel Who they should pick Mock 6/18/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard. So, the classic top 5 we’ve been seeing for months. McDaniel says the top 3 are a tier, then the next two, then 6 and up. He’s got the Nats at #11 on Liam Peterson, the RHP friday starter from Florida. First time i’ve seen anyone project Peterson to the Nats, who would be leaving Flukey, Gringlinger, and Curiel on the table with this pick. McDaniel points out that the Boston-alum heavy front office was “good at identifying pitching it could optimize” and Peterson could slot in. I have to tell you, I don’t hate getting a top college pitcher at this point in the Nats farm system development … which is super SS heavy.
• MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Mock on 6/18/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Lombard, Booth. First guy that I can think of that inserts Booth into the top 5 (he has Flora 6th). He has Nats on Hacopian, though notes that the industry knows that the team is “in” on Gringlinger. This mock has the two-way prep star falling to #19.
• MLBPipeline Callis & Mayo tag team a Mock 6/26/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Lombard, Flora. Pretty standard. Nats at #11 they have Kentucky SS Tyler Bell, who is picked over the likes of Gringlinger, Hacopian, Reese, and Lebron in this mock.
• CBSSports/Mike Axisa 6/26/26 mock: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Lombard, Bell; from his last mock he moves up Lackey a spot, and puts Bell at #5 after a strong CWS finish. He also describes Bell as an underslot guy at this position, which seems fair given that he’s got a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder that he’s played with all year that will require immediate surgery . Nats at #11 still on Gringlinger, saying the Nats would let him be a 2-way player to start his pro career.
• BA Mock 5.0 post CWS and Combine 6/29/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Standard top 5, though he says Cholowsky isn’t certain 1-1 anymore, and that Pittsburgh at 5 could do an underslot deal instead of picking the obvious Flora. Nats at #11 on Ace Reese, the power-hitting 3B from Mississippi State. He recognizes the industry all says Gringlinger, but BA says the Nats are moving more towards college bats now. Grindlinger falls to #20 as a result.
• Prep Baseball Report Staff Mock (via D1baseball) 7/2/26: Lackey, Emerson, Cholowsky, Flora, Lombard. Sorry, but this just seems out of touch with reality. There’s zero chance Tampa passes on Cholowsky if he somehow doesn’t go 1-1, and there’s little chance the Giants pass on Lombard. There’s a reason these mock drafts look similar; its because the pundits have relationships with GMs and know who they’ve been sending cross checkers out to see. They also put a guy at #6 who I’ve literally never heard of. Nats at #11 take prep lefty Gio Rojas, leaving a slew of top 10 names on the board.
• MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo Mock 7/2/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Booth; Booth jumps Flora in this mock. Nats at #11 get Reese. They leave Curiel, Bell, Hacopian, Lebron, and Gringlinger on the board to take Reese, which seems unlikely.
• Keith Law’s Mock 3.0 7/6/26: Emerson, Lackey, Cholowsky, Lombard, Flora. Law’s research now shows CWS at 1-1 have Cholowsky “a distant third” for the pick, At #11 he has the nats taking Hacopian, as he did a month ago, saying that the Nats staff loves Grindlinger but is concerned about the amount of dev time needed for a 2-way 17 yr old.
• Not a mock, but Kiley McDaniel posted the “one big question” each team faces with its 1st round pick on 7/6/26. The Nat’s conversation talks about how recent Boston draft proclivities at the top may show up in the Nats draft this year.
• Baseball America Staff Draft v4.0 7/6/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Flora, Booth. Nats at #11 got Reese.
• Prospects1500 Mock Draft 7/7/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Booth. At #11 they mock Carson Bolemon, a prep LHP from Southside Christian (HS) in South Carolina to the team. This seems crazy; he’s ranked in the 20s and has not once appeared in any mock draft conversation for the team.
• ProspectsLive team did a podcast/video mock 7/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. Nats at #11 they go with Grindlinger.
• Baseball Prospect Journal Staff Mock Draft 7/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard. nats at #11 get Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah (Ga.) HS, another name that basically nobody is mentioning to the Nats in particular, or this high. At least the boards have him reasonably within the realm of the #11 range.
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen Mock v1.0 7/8/26: Emerson, Lackey, Cholowsky, Flora, Booth. Like other major pundits, he’s reading the tea leaves and seeing that Cholowsky may be slipping and that Booth has taken over Lombard’s spot int he top 5. In this draft, Drew Burress drops to the Nats at #11, and if this happens I’d think the team would be ecstatic.

Final Mocks from Pundits

• Baseball America Mock 6.0 final mock 7/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Booth, Flora. We’re seeing Lombard with some late slippage, and Booth seems to be the name now stepping into the top 5. As with their previous mock, they have Nats on Reese. Gringlinger drops to #19.
• Baseball America Final, no really Final Mock 7.0 7/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Booth, Flora. Nats Reese. No change.
• ESPN/McDaniel Final Mock Draft 7/10/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Booth, Burress. Wow, first time we’ve seen Drew Burress in the top 5; just a day before Longenhagen had him dropping to us at #11. In this mock, Nats at #11 get Derek Curiel, the famous hitter from LSU. I’d be a-ok with this scenario.
• The Athletic/Keith Law’s Final Mock 7/10/26: Emerson, Lackey, Cholowsky, Lombard, Flora. Nats get Hacopian.
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen Final Mock 7/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. Nats get Bell.
• MLBPipeline/Jonathan Mayo’s Final Mock 7/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. Nats get Lebron
• MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Final Mock 7/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Curiel. Nats get Hacopian
• CBSSports/Mike Axisa Final Mock 7/10/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Booth. nats get Gracia.
• Baseball Prospect Journal/Logan Quinton Final Mock: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Booth, Flora. Nats get Condon (BPJ is the only shop that is on Condon here)

The draft runs from July 11 to 13th this year, so we’re just a few days away.

My predictions right now?

• Top 5: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey (in some order), then Booth, Flora.
• Nats at #11: It’s looking like a college bat: whoever is left from Reese, Curiel, Burress, Hacopian.

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Actual Draft Results post draft:

Top 5 went Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Curiel. Nats get Hacopian.

Jim Callis nailed it perfectly; only guy to have Curiel in top 5, he had the top 5 in order, and he got Nats pick right. Only Keith Law besides Callis got Nats/Hacopian.