Nationals Arm Race

Zimmermann keeps looking better and better post TJ surgery. Photo Manuel Balce-Ceneta/AP

The Nats are in the midst of quite a struggle right now, both offensively and defensively.   3 really “bad” pitching performances to go with two good ones (both of which ended in losses).

Good

• Livan Hernandez became the latest pitcher to suffer through the Nats offensive woes, giving up just 1 run in 7 innings but taking the 1-0 loss during 5/19’s day game (gamer/box).  His team was completely shut down by the Mets backup #5 pitcher, who had a no-hitter through 5.
• Jordan Zimmerman pitched well enough to win on 5/22 (box/gamer), going through the first 6 innings scoreless and relatively unscathed, but made a mistake to Vladimir Guerrero in the 7th that ended up in the seats and gave his offensively challenged team another loss.

Bad

• Jason Marquis struggled badly, and was hurt by a Bernadina dropped flyball that was scored as a double, and was lifted after 4 in Baltimore on friday 5/20 (box/gamer).  Luckily the Nationals did a week’s worth of scoring and got the win.  His line: 4ip, 8hits, 5 runs (all earned with the badly scored Bernadina play), 3 walks and 2ks.  Upon learning that he was getting the hook prior to qualifying for the win, Marquis was highly upset.  My take?  You cannot give up 5 runs in 4 innings and expect to continue in a game.  I’m sorry; if you wanted to get that win, you needed to pitch better.
• John Lannan had a game of ups and downs on 5/21 (box/gamer); he had several clean innings, but also had a couple of bad innings.  He gave up 4 straight hits in an inning in which he’d already given up a 2-run homer to give Baltimore all they’d need to take the game.  The “meltdown” start pushes Lannan’s ERA over 5.00 and will increase calls for his demotion/replacement.
• Tom Gorzelanny got hit hard, often and deep in the 5/23 Milwaukee game (box/gamer).   5ip, 8 hits (3 of which were homers), good for 6 earned runs and the loss.  His 6ks were incidental and the damage was done early.

Starter Trends (last 5 starts only)

Lhernandez    good,soso,bad,good,good
Marquis    great,bad,good,soso,bad
Lannan    really bad,good,soso,bad,bad
Zimmermann     bad,good,good,great,good
Gorzelanny    great,good,bad,soso,bad

Relievers of Note

• Riggleman took advantage of the ridiculous 17-5 Baltimore win to get “Mr Low Leverage Reliever” Henry Rodriguez some work.  He went three innings (three!), gave up a couple of hits but had 3Ks and zero walks, a very good sign.
• Cole Kimball had his first mediocre outing on 5/21, allowing both his inherited runners to score and giving up 4 straight hits to the heart of Baltimore’s order.
• Brian Broderick‘s DFA was dated 5/14, and teams have 10 days to finalize that assignment.  We’ve heard no word on possible negotiations with St. Louis to keep Broderick up to this point, and odds are that no other team would claim him at this point (any claim would mean the claiming team would ALSO have to keep the Rule5 draftee on their active roster for the duration of the season).  I wonder if he’s about to be returned outright to St. Louis.  Update: Broderick was re-claimed by St. Louis on 5/24, ending the rule5 draftee’s Washington experiment.

Thoughts on the offense

I’m not sure what the answer is (since there’s basically nothing at AAA or AA that we could call up to augment the offense), but the downturn of the offense is getting to be ridiculous.  There’s a guy in my fantasy baseball league whose strategy is to just pick up whatever pitcher is going against the Nats, because he knows he’ll get a great outing.  Sure enough, Dillon Gee, who is probably owned in 0% of fantasy leagues, threw up this line on 5/19: 7 2/3s innings, 3 hits, 2 bbs, 3 Ks and zero runs.  Those are the kind of lines that win fantasy championships.

This is what the Park could have looked like during 5/17's "rainout." Ridiculous. Photo: AndrewClem.com

Note: Tuesday’s “rainout” of the Nats-Pirates game allowed the team to just skip Jordan Zimmermann’s start, so we’ve only got four outings in this period’s “starter cycle.”

Good

• Livan Hernandez was out-dueled for the 2nd time in a week by Anibal Sanchez on 5/14 (box/gamer), and took a loss in a game that he pitched pretty well.  line: 7ip, 6hits, 1 run.  He follows up a bad performance with a good one, as is his custom.

Bad

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Jason Marquis may officially have a quality start in the books for his 5/15 victory over the Marlins (box/gamer) but at least one of the two earned runs he gave up in in the top of the 2nd was really “earned” and not a result of the throwing error that put Sanchez on base.  Its one of the many reasons that ERA is misleading in many cases.  That being said: he went 6 2/3, runs (2 earned), 6 hits and a walk and 2ks.  The victory makes him 5-1 on the season and should do nothing to stem the trade rumors that are sure to start dogging him now that the season is a quarter finished.
• John Lannan didn’t figure into the decision on 5/16, but he pitched decently enough (box/gamer).  Line: 6 1/3 ip, 7 hits and 4 bbs, 2 runs and 4ks.  It counts as a “good” quality start but he was putting guys on all day.  101 pitches but only 54 for strikes, indicated by the 4 walks.  He’s got a 1.6 whip on the season right now and one has to wonder if a hot starter in AAA would jeopardize his rotation spot at some point in the future.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s 5/18 outing was hard to judge, given the weather conditions (box/gamer).  He got knocked out of the game in the 6th, having given up 8 hits and 5 walks (2 of which were intentional, but still.  One of the IBBs was done because Gorzelanny threw away a pickoff attempt, the other because he gave up a leadoff single that was stranded at 2nd).  Nearly a 2.00 whip on the day.   But it was pouring rain most of the night and both pitchers must have been struggling with their grips and control.

Starter Trends

Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso,bad,good
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad,good,soso
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad,good,soso
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good,great
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good,bad,soso

Relievers of Note

• Cole Kimball‘s first two appearances ended with identical lines: 1ip, 1bb, 1k, nothing else.  His first appearance was in a one-run game, his second in a 4-run outing so as to save Storen’s arm.  Per pitch f/x, Kimball was throwing 93, maxing at 94.9 and throwing mostly fastballs.  There’s a massive delta between his fastball and his curve speed.  He has 4 pitches (being a former starter) but we are only really seeing 2 of them right now.  The fact that Riggleman immediately put Kimball into a one-run game within 12 hours of his call-up is as clear an indictment of Henry Rodriguez‘s continued place in the bullpen as can be said.

Thoughts on the offense

• Ankiel‘s injury may prove to be somewhat of a Wally Pipp injury, if Roger Bernadina continues to perform has he has been.   His slash line as of 5/15 is .321/.424/.393 and we’re seeing zero drop-off with his defense, high lighted by this amazing catch on 5/13 (a catch that I couldn’t believe he made either).  Its nice to see both Bernadina and Laynce Nix making statements and taking control of positions that they both “lost” in spring training.

Washington won the first two games of the Florida series, but still faced a very difficult trip to Atlanta, where they are set to face the cream of the Braves’ rotation.  How did they do?

Good

• Jason Marquis got the Atlanta Series off to a nice start, pitching into the 8th on 5/10 for a victory over Tim Hudson (box/gamer).  He retired the first 9 he faced, made a mistake to Martin Prado that turned into a 4th inning homer, worked out of a jam in the 5th then cruised through 7 complete.  Two hits in the 8th turned into 2 more runs, spoiling his otherwise good line: 7 1/3, 7 hits, 2 walks, 3 runs, 3ks.
• John Lannan is an enigma; he followed up last week’s abomination with a good quality start against a playoff team in Atlanta on 5/11 (box/gamer).  Line: 6ip,5hits, 2 runs, 3bbs and 3ks.
• Jordan Zimmermann had a very dominant 103 pitch outing on 5/12 (box/gamer): 6 1/3, 5 hits, 3 runs, 2bbs and 11Ks.  Two of those 3 runs were inherited and allowed to score by Burnett.  The other was a solo HR from Chipper Jones that he absolutely crushed after Zimmermann *barely* missed with two well thrown sliders to run the count 2-0.  He missed his spot by a foot and Jones crushed it.  Our the poorly constructed bullpen conspired to blow the 4 run lead they had been given in the 7th and eventually leaked in the winning run to blow one of the better outings we’ve had out of a starter all year.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez may have reached 5 complete innings in Florida on Sunday 5/8, but he got hammered on the way there (box/gamer).  Final line: 5ip, 8hits, 2 walks, only 2Ks and 6 earned runs.  The Umpire wasn’t giving Livan the corners, and the Florida hitters just waited out his batting practice-speed fastballs to come over the plate.  Livan’s counterpart didn’t seem to mind the umpiring; Anibel Sanchez had a no-hitter through 7 and struck out 11.
• Tom Gorzelanny couldn’t get out of the 5th on 5/13 (box/gamer), putting up an unsightly line: 4 2/3ip, 8hits and a walk leading to 4 runs.  He got torched by the (very tough) first half of Florida’s lineup in the first and Riggleman yanked him when he got into trouble again in the 5th.  He was already on 88 pitches when departing.

Starter Trends

MLB Trends (through gorz 5/13)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso,bad,good
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad,good
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad,good
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good,great
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good,bad

Relievers of Note

• Here’s Henry Rodriguez‘s outing on Sunday 5/8: 6 batters faced, 3 walks, 2 wild pitches, one weak grounder and two strike outs.  1 inning pitched, 1 earned run on zero hits.  27 pitches but only NINE for strikes.  This is just NOT going to cut it.  Further evidence as seen in the 5/12 game, further commented here.
• Is Sean Burnett suddenly becoming a liability out of the pen?  He retired no-one on 5/10, helping to nearly blow a 6-run lead.  He had several clean outings before that, but a stretch in mid-april has his season era near 6.00.  He’s not getting nearly the K/9 rates that he was last year (4.0 this year versus 8.9 last year).  Is his arm hurt?
• How about Drew Storen?  Riggleman still won’t commit to him as the closer, but actions speak louder than words.  As of 5/11’s game (where he earned the win by being the pitcher of record when the team scored 4 in the 11th) he’s pitched 20 2/3 innings and given up ONE run.  And we were worried about him coming out of spring training?  For all those who are talking about whether or not he’s not as “good” as Aaron Crow, you’re crazy.  Give me a shutdown closer over a middle reliever who couldn’t hack it as a starter in the minors any day.

Thoughts on the offense

Riggleman is starting to make the right decisions by playing Wilson Ramos and Laynce Nix more and more, and they’re 2 of the best 3 producing offensive players we have right now.  Its a small sample size, but Roger Bernadina looks like he may stick in the leadoff/center field spot even when Ankiel is back.

Gorzelanny, our #5 pitcher, is starting to look like our #1. Photo Ed Wolfstein

After a surprising 3-1 series at home against San Francisco, and after a fantastic run through the rotation, the team hits the road for 3 straight divisional series away and a set of games that could easily define their season.  How did our pitchers fare?  Not terribly well.  A sweep in Philadelphia gave the team a worst-case start to this critical road trip, but they then took two of the first three in Florida (surprisingly; they’ve been awful in Miami for years).

Here’s how our pitchers looked this go-around:

Good

• Jordan Zimmermann may not have gotten the win for his 5/6 outing (box/gamer) but he pitched pretty well.  6ip, 2 runs for a “real” quality start.  Zimmermann’s k/9 rate is way way down from his performances in the past; he’s only got 24 in 41 innings.  By way of comparison in 2010 he had 27 in 31 on the comeback trail, and in 2009 he had 92 in 91 innings.  Unless he’s purposely pitching to contact this drastic reduction in Ks/9 is worrisome.
• Tom Gorzelanny had his third straight good-to-great outing, beating the Marlins on 5/7 (box/gamer).  He only gave up 2 hits through 7 innings, though a walk and a homer tagged him with 2 earned runs.  Gorzelanny is turning into a find for this team.  He’s the only starter who has yet to really have a bad outing and continues to pitch really well.

Bad

• Jason Marquis couldn’t follow up on his 5-hit gem and got pounded at the “Link” in Philadelphia on 5/4 (box/gamer).  Line: 5ip, 10hits (!), 7runs (6 of which were earned) and only 2ks.  Ugh.  His first “meltdown” of the season.
• If Marquis’ start was bad, then I guess John Lannan‘s needs a new category.  Lannan becomes the first Nats pitcher not to complete the 5th inning this season, only lasting 2 innings in an ugly 5/5 loss (gamer/box).  Line: 6runs on 7 hits in 2innings completed (he faced 6 consecutive batters without retiring one to open the 3rd inning).

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Livan Hernandez is Mr YoYo.  One good outing, one medicore one.  One great outing, then one bad.  On Tuesday 5/3 he had an off night (gamer/box), getting battered around for 10 hits and an additional 4 walks (two of which were intentional, and one of THOSE was clearly against his wishes when facing Ryan Howard).  In the end, it wouldn’t have mattered since his offense mustered only one run (on a solo shot from Michael Morse).  Final line: 6 1/3, 10hits, 4 runs, 4 bb, 4ks and a loss.

Starter Trends

MLB Trends (through 5/7)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good

Relievers of Note

• One day after a relatively electrifying MLB debut for the team, Henry Rodriguez showed what we can probably expect in the longer term.  On 4/30, he threw 11 fastballs that averaged 98.7mph and got two strikeouts in a clean 1 inning of work.  On 5/3 he threw 24 pitches, walked two guys, allowed a hit and got no strikeouts.  He showed a change up (a 90mph changeup, nice), but could not control his slider.  I think the jury is still out on this guy.  But he had to be a pretty amazing change of pace after Livan for 6 innings.  On 5/5 he got stretched out a bit but had another typical up and down session; 2 hits and a walk and 3Ks in 2 innings.
• Tyler Clippard had a pretty good line on friday 5/5: 6 batters faced, 6 strike outs.  Adam Kilgore reviewed the outing here.  He now has 27 Ks in 21 innings so far and an ERA+ of 301 on the season.
• Storen continues to be electric in the closer role.  He’s given up just one earned run in 17 appearances thus far, good for an 805 ERA+.  Can’t ask much more out of your fireman.

Thoughts on the offense

The continued deficiency of the offense is reaching troubling areas.  We’re a month into the season; no more excuses about “slow starts” or “getting back into the swing of it.”  As of 5/7, the team is 5-17 when scoring four runs or less (and 10-0 when scoring five or more).  This sounds great; all we need to do is score 5 or more runs a game and we’re the ’29 Yankees.  If your offense is already struggling, and they know they have to score a ton of runs to have a shot, team morale could fade fast.

Overall Summary

Amazingly, the team hovers near .500 despite having the 15th or 16th NL ranked offense in most categories.  They’re batting as a team 79 OPS+, putting them 20% below average.  Rick Ankiel is taking his .221 batting average onto the DL for a couple weeks, giving Roger Bernadina his best yet chance to own Center field and the leadoff position.  If he were to succeed, it may be a great kick start for the team.

Marquis' 5-hit shutout is the best outing we've seen since Strasburg. Photo: Ap via silive.com

The team is rocked by the news that star Ryan Zimmerman will miss another 6 weeks, on top of the last 17 games he’s already missed, due to a torn abdominal muscle.  To add insult to injury, the team is in a very difficult part of the schedule (SF at home, then away to Philadelphia, Florida and Atlanta 3 series in a row) that could very well see them plummet to the basement of the division.  Can their rotation help keep them near .500?

Good

• As he tends to do, Livan Hernandez followed up a sub-par outing with an excellent one, going 8 complete innings (Washington’s longest starter outing of the year), giving up 3 runs (2 earned) and spelling the burned-out bullpen in a 4-3 win over the Mets in the 4/28 series finale (box/gamer).  Livan gave up 7 hits and a walk to go with 5 strikeouts on the night.  He’s now averaging 6.5 IP per start (best on the staff) and though his Fip/Xfip are slightly worst than MLB median he’s holding steady for the team.
• Jason Marquis put in easily the best start of the season, and his best start for this team, pitching a 5-hit shutout on 4/29 (box/gamer).  He struck out 7, walked none, and needed just 96 pitches to finish off the light-hitting Giants.  The defeat of the Giants and ace Tim Lincecum continued an interesting pattern for the team of competing well against the opposing team’s ace (they’re 4-2 against the nominal “ace” of opposing rotations, beating Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Yovanni Gallardo, and Kevin Correia while falling to Derek Lowe and Roy Halladay).  If Marquis continues to pitch this well, the Nats could face a difficult decision later on in the season (trade or re-sign?).
• John Lannan pitched 6 very efficient innings before fading in the 7th long enough to give up a 2nd run, which proved to be enough to get him the loss on Saturday 4/30’s day game (box/gamer).  Final line: 6 2/3, 6 hits, 3 walks (one intentional) and 2 runs.  But he had given up just 4 hits and zero walks through 6 complete, a very dominant performance.  The 7th came apart on him very quickly, and he managed to load the bases and walk in the go-ahead run before Clippard could take the mound and escape the jam.  Riggleman called for a somewhat questionable intentional walk before Lannan managed to walk in the winning run.
• Jordan Zimmerman‘s line wasn’t that dominant for Sunday 5/1’s game (box/gamer); 6ip, 6hits, 2 walks, 4ks and 2 runs.  However watching the game you got a different story.  Both runs scored by virtue of a fluke-y bloop double that hit the left field line from a weak-hitting left-handed hitter.  One of the walks was intentional.  And 3 of the 6 hits he gave up were either infield singles or weakly hit balls.  So Jordan gets a quality start and his 2nd best game score of the season.
• Tom Gorzelanny nearly matched Marquis’ gem with his 8-inning, 3-hit and no walk performance on Military night, 5/1 (box/gamer).  The game took his season ERA down a full run (from 3.97 to 2.93).  I had to quibble a bit with the in-game management though from Riggleman; see this op-ed piece for my thoughts.

Trends

MLB Trends (through 5/2)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great

Thoughts on the offense

• Laynce Nix is starting to make a statement for this team, putting up a 150 OPS+ through part time action thus far.  He made his biggest statement yet in Friday’s start against Lincecum, punishing an 0-2 mistake from the young San Francisco Ace for an early 2-run homer.  However it was a foul-ball blast later in the game that everyone is talking about; Nix absolutely crushed an inside fastball about 10-feet foul, but it glanced off the THIRD deck of the Nats stadium.  Estimates put it at 450 feet or so, an incredible distance at a stadium that has seen scant balls hit in that area.  WP beat writer Adam Kilgore discussed this same point in the NatsJournal blog friday.  Nix gets so few at bats versus lefties that it is difficult to ascertain how his splits look, but with Mike Morse continuing to struggle (he’s not even slugging .300 from the left fielder spot) it may behoove the team to roll the dice and give Nix some full time opportunities.
• Can someone explain the role that Matt Stairs so excellently fulfills that he deserves a 25-man roster spot and $850k?  He gets 4 at bats a week, has yet to get a hit, and has more strikeouts than walks.  Wouldn’t there be more value in putting a player on the roster in his place who could actually *help* the team?

Overall Summary

All 5 starters threw what i’d call “good” or “great” starts, and the team went 4-1 in those starts.  That’s great news.  The hitters continue to struggle, with 6 of our 8 regulars hitting .233 or below.  These guys need to snap out of it soon.

Gorzelanny puts in his best outing of the year. AP Photo/Frank Franklin II via sbnation.com

Rotation Cycle #5 notes: The team gets back Todd Coffey from the DL and says good-bye (for now) to Collin Balester.  Because of the rain-outs from last week, Jason Marquis‘s turn got skipped, which is unfortunate since he’s the most effective starter we have right now.  Meanwhile, another rain-out on Friday 4/21 was rescheduled to a previous off day on Monday 4/25, a gift for John Lannan, who got to pitch on normal rest.  Lets see how these guys fared.

Good

• Depending on how much credence you give to stadium guns, Drew Storen hit 97 during his 4/24 save.  Just to make sure, I looked up the pitch f/x data, and sure enough he maxed out at 97.1 while averaging 96.1 for his 7 four-seamers on the day.  For some reason, I didn’t realize he could bring it that heavy.  If he’s gaining speed, that’s great news for his closing career.  He’s got a fantastic start to the season; an ERA and Whip below 1.00, 3 saves and a slew of dominant performances.  As a side note, boy i’d love to see him in the rotation…
• Tom Gorzelanny put in his best performance of the year in the opening game of the Mets series (box/gamer) only to watch Sean Burnett melt down in the 9th (well, technically Tyler Clippard blew the “win” for Gorzelanny first) and cost both him and his team the win.  Line: 6 1/3, 5 hits, 1walk 1run and 4Ks.  Amazingly (for Gorzelanny) he was only at 85 pitches when he was pulled.  Normally he’s nearing 100 pitches at the end of the 5th.  He lowered his ERA by a full point and took his ERA+ from 74 to 101 with this one outing.  His fip/xfip are starting to look better as well.  One area of concern is his BABIP; currently at at amazingly low .200.  At some point this will rise and he’ll take some lumps.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez‘s 450th career start is one he’d like to have back.  He gave up 5 runs in the first, 7 overall (4 earned thanks to several errors by his defense) and he took an ugly loss on 4/23 (box/gamer).  Line: 6ip, 9hits, 7 runs (4 earned), 4bbs and 2ks.  Livan, a creature of habit, had his typical pre-game routine thrown off by an hour-long rain delay and then apparently short notice to get ready to go.  He commented as much to beat reporters and even pseudo-accused the Pirates of playing some gamesmanship with the notification timing (seemingly, his opposite number Jeff Karstens got plenty of notice to begin his warmup).  Either way, it was only the 2nd “meltdown” our starters have thrown all year (I define a “meltdown” as a pitcher who gives up as many or more runs as innings pitched during an outing) as opposed to the FOURTY they managed to throw in 162 games last year.
• Chad Gaudin managed to get through 2/3 of an inning without giving up a run on monday, but not without some embarrassing moments.  He managed to throw not one but two balls behind the backs of opposing hitters.  He was flat-out aiming several other pitches, including a slider that probably would have been disintegrated by better hitters.  Unfortunately, he just looks like he’s lost confidence in his command, and he must be reading the writing on the wall (i.e., that he’s most likely gone when Henry Rodriguez is done with rehab).  Update: he was placed on the 15-day DL when Rodriguez was re-instated on 4/27, and I commented about the move here.
• Not a good start from Jordan Zimmerman, who continued the Nats starter streak of pitching into the 5th inning on 4/26 against the Mets (box/gamer), but only barely.  He gives up 5 runs on 9 hits in just 5 1/3 inning.  On the bright side, he was throwing lots of strikes (53 of 73 pitches for strikes) and his pitch count was very low (73 through 5 1/3, putting him on pace to at least finish 7).  Perhaps he was trying to pitch to contact tonight instead of trying to blow guys away.  Zimmermann still has 2nd best FIP and xFIP values of the rotation, so he’s not the real problem right now.
• Doug Slaten may have a 0.00 era at current, but he’s got a 1.80 whip and allowed both runners he inherited from Zimmermann to score on 4/26, essentially sealing the 6-4 loss for the team.  1.80 whip is just too many baserunners for a matchup-guy and he needs to work on getting clean outings.  In his defense, his BABIP is absurdly high (.438), so he may just be unlucky in the early part of the season.
• Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard both conspired to waste Gorzelanny’s great start, each getting a blown save on 4/27.  Burnett’s was completely egregious; he blew a 1-run game in the 9th, gave up FOUR runs and forced the team to burn Storen on a night he was scheduled to have off.  If there’s any question who the “closer” is for this team now, I think we have our answer.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Jason Marquis struggled with his control all day on 4/24 (gamer/box), but scattered 10 baserunners over 6 innings and managed to only give up 3 runs.  Meanwhile his hitters backed him up enough to get the win.  He nearly didn’t make it out of the 5th inning; he was probably one more baserunner from getting yanked before qualifying for the win.  But he gutted the inning out and finished the 6th upon throwing his 100th pitch.  His day included a 55-mph floater that he just tossed in to avoid a balk after slipping mid-way through his rotation … the  batter (Neil Walker) just watched it into the mitt for a called strike and then looked as if he’d just passed up on the pitch of a lifetime.
• John Lannan was victimized by a short rain delay, which seemed to throw him off his game, leading to a 4-run 4th inning and a loss on 4/25 (gamer/box).  He went 5 2/3 all told, and was bailed out of the 6th inning by reliever Todd Coffey.  Not his worst start, but enough to cost his offensively-challenged team a win.  Lannan is putting a lot of guys on base (whip of 1.538 on the season) and is probably our least effective pitcher right now.  He’s only had one really “good” outing out of 5 so far this year.

Trends

As with the minor league rotations, here’s the trends of our starters so far.  Livan is doing what we normally expect; throwing in a really bad outing intermixed with good ones.  Lannan’s trends are troublesome; he’s only really had one dominating outing all year.

MLB Trends:
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad
Marquis    good,good,good,soso
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good

Livan continues his mastery of the National League.

The team fights through two doubleheaders in a weeks time with continued great starting pitching.  As of the time of this posting, the Nats rotation is the only rotation in baseball that has yet to see a sub-5 inning outing.  Our team ERA is 5th in the NL and is keeping the team in games (our team batting average has been either last or 2nd to last in the NL most of the season).

(Note; because of the double-headers, Jason Marquis‘s turn got skipped in the rotation.  Honestly, I would have thought Riggleman would have figured out a way to get him a start and skip Gorzelanny in the rotation instead of the other way around.  He’ll go against Pittsburgh this coming weekend).

Good

• Livan Hernandez pitched the 2nd game of Sunday’s double header (blog/gamer/box) and seemed to enjoy pitching in and out of the shadows cast from the stadium in the later afternoon.  He continues to put in effective performances despite not having lights-out stuff, going 7pm, 6hits, 1r, 3ks and no walks for his 3rd quality start out of four and his 2nd win on the year.
• I liked Drew Storen‘s 2 inning save against Milwaukee on 4/17; I like having relievers who are comfortable going more than one inning when called upon.  He earns the save on a day where supposed closer Sean Burnett gets the day off.  On 4/20, he bailed out Burnett’s bad outing and got a 4-out save in St Louis.
• Third straight scoreless outing for Brian Broderick in St. Louis.  Hmm; perhaps his initial struggles were just nerves.

Bad

• Chad Gaudin‘s 2BB, 1hit appearance in the first half of Sunday’s twin-bill rightfully has some observers calling for his head.  He’s just putting too many guys on base (his WHIP sits above 2.00 now; in 7 innings pitched he’s given up 10 hits and 7 walks) for a late-inning reliever.  He appeared again on 4/20; 2/3 of an inning, 2 hits and a walk.  He may have pitched great in the spring, but he may be making way once Henry Rodriguez completes his rehab assignments.
• John Lannan‘s effort in the top half of their St Louis DH (blog/gamer/box) was enough to get the win on a day where he didn’t really pitch that well.  7 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings but he only managed to give up 2 runs (on two solo homers to Pujols and Rasmus).   He threw more pitches than he normally needs (101 pitches for 5 innings and a batter) and struggled to find the plate (59 strikes).  I’m listing this as a “bad” outing because he failed to go deep into a game where the bullpen needed a break.  His offense gave him a SEVEN run lead and his short outing forced the team to burn 5 of their 7 relievers.
• Jordan Zimmermann struggled in the nightcap on 4/20, giving up 5 runs in 6 innings to take the loss.  He didn’t have much of a safety net from his bullpen and knew he had to go deep.  He struggled with his spots most of the game but couldn’t get Lance Berkman out.  He looked good early, but took his third loss of the season.

Mediocre

• Tom Gorzelanny demonstrated yet again one of my primary concerns with him as a starter in the St Louis series finale (gamer/box).  He just throws too many pitches.  His final line wasn’t egregious: 5ip, 2runs on 2 hits, 4 walks with 3 ks.  However, it took him 108 pitches to complete the 5th inning.  By way of comparison, the opposing starter Kyle Lohse (who is not exactly a Cy Young candidate), needed just 111 pitches to pitch a complete game.  Gorzelanny walked a batter in each of the first 4 innings.  He only threw 63 of those 108 pitches for strikes.  The 2 run homer that he gave up to Matt Holliday came on an 0-2 mistake, and he only gave up one other hit in 5 innings.  That may sound good, but the ancillary evidence is against him.  This outing lowered his ERA to 4.96, but his FIP is 6.20.  By way of comparison, the HIGH FIP for qualified 2010 starters in either league was Rodrigo Lopez‘s 5.21.  Gorzelanny needs to learn how to pitch more efficiently and not be a complete bullpen killer every time he takes the mound.
• Collin Balester‘s poor outing in St. Louis did him no favors with the team.  It wasn’t as if the team was threatening to win that game  hitting as badly as they have been, but your job as a reliever is to pitch shutout innings.  Balester needs to show lights-out stuff to prove to management that he’s a better alternative going forward than Chad Gaudin.

Thoughts on the offense

The offense is going through highs and lows.  They pounded Milwaukee’s Ace and hung 7 on St. Louis’ Westbrook.  But then they meekly allowed the very mediocre Kyle Lohse to put a complete game 2-hitter on them.  A quick look at the hitting stats shows some alarming stats; only one regular right now shows an OPS+ above 100 (Espinosa).  We know Werth and LaRoche are slow starters, but enough is enough.  Meanwhile Morse has exactly 1 extra base hit in 46 at bats and may be due for a demotion.  I’d like to see Laynce Nix full time in left field for the time being.  I know the theory is that he can’t hit lefties so you platoon him, but at this point I’d rather see him full time out there.  So far the Ankiel experiment is failing too; good for the Nats to be scouting CFs.  And why are we giving MORE at bats to Pudge?  I realize he’s a hall of famer and all, but the man is clearly a once-a-week starter now.

Overall Summary

Amazingly, the team sits at .500 after the series loss in St. Louis.  I’d like to see at least two wins in Pittsburgh.  That would be a sign of progress.

Jordan Zimmermann is starting to look like a very valuable starter.

Good

• Livan Hernandez kicks off the 3rd turn through the rotation with a great start against the NL favorite Phillies (running blog/gamer/box).  Final line was 6 2/3, 7h, 1er, 6Ks and 0 BBs.  His one run was on an opposite field smash by Ryan Howard on a pitch that wasn’t that bad (remember; Howard is a dead pull hitter so for him to put a ball out to left is an aberration, not a sign).  Livan’s line would have looked even better had he not given up 3 straight singles in the 7th inning, leaving a bases loaded jam for Tyler Clippard to get out of.  Livan was in control all night, following his typical pattern of hitting the corners and frustrating hitters with ridiculously slow curve balls.  (Side note on this start; I had a real problem with the way Riggleman handled the bullpen this night; see this post for my thoughts).
• Jordan Zimmerman was perfect through 5 innings on 4/14 (blog/gamer/box) before hanging a curveball for a homer in the 6th and loading the bases in the 8th.  It wouldn’t matter; his counterpart Cliff Lee threw a 3-hit shutout.  Final line: 7ip, 5hits, 0bbs, 4rs (only 1 earned) with 4ks.  When he was removed in the 8th he had only thrown 85 pitches, showing the best efficiency of any starter yet this season.  His one earned run line slightly flatters what happened to him in the 8th; the two guys who scored both got on base via hits.  Either way, the most dominating pitching performance of 2010 from our starters.
• Doug Slaten pitched very effectively in his lefty-lefty matchups against Philadelphia, getting Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez very effectively when presented with opportunities.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s 4/15 start (blog/gamer/box) indicated to me that he’s still not quite in his mid-season groove.  He cruised through 4 innings with just two weak hits (an infield bouncer and a liner to left that Michael Morse really should have caught).  Then in the 5th he gave up a hard-hit double to weak hitting former Nat Wil Nieves and then Richie Weeks just pulverized a ball that Gorzelanny left over the plate for a 2-run double.  Gorzelanny seems to really lose his typical rhythm when runners get on base; he slows down his normally fast tempo, pays too much attention to the runners, and suddenly loses his ability to command his pitches.  Final line: 6ip, 5h, 2runs, 2bbs and 4ks.  A quality start for sure, but I’d still put it as a slightly inconsistent outing.
• Jason Marquis went against Milwaukee’s ace Yovanni Gallardo on Sunday 4/17 (blog/gamer/box) and came away an 8-4 winner.  Marquis pitched like a veteran for his team, knowing that they needed a long outing so as to save the bullpen for the 2nd game and the rest of the week.  He scattered 9 hits and a walk through 7ip plus, got a couple of double plays from his defense and watched the offense get to one of the better pitchers in the league for a win.  Final line: 7ip, 9hits, 2runs, 1bb and 4ks.

Bad

There really wasn’t anything “bad” to report out of any of our relievers on the week.  Todd Coffey was placed on the DL with a calf strain, clearing the way for Collin Balester to join the team for 10 days or so.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• John Lannan‘s 4/13 (blog/gamer/box) outing versus Philly ace Roy Halladay was always going to be a tough game to win.  His line ended up looking better than his performance (6ip, 3r, 2er, 6hits and 3bbs).  He struggled with his control all night, throwing 100 pitches but only 55 for strikes.  He gave up a lead-off double but scattered 5 other singles throughout the evening.  He worked around multiple mental mistakes and errors from shortstop Ian Desmond (including; an obstruction call, hesitation on a grounder in the first that turned a routine ground ball into a hit, dropping an easy grounder, and then failing to throw home on an infield-in situation, allowing one of the runs to score).  Some would look at the end result and claim this is Lannan effectively working through a very strong lineup and working around defensive mistakes to keep his team in the game.  And I wouldn’t be able to argue against it.

Thoughts on the offense

The Nats are being carried right now by the two rookies Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos.  With Ryan Zimmerman on the DL we’re now missing our 3-4-5 hitters from last season, and it is showing.   Zimmerman’s replacement Hairston is (as of 4/15) 1-22 at the plate.  The Nats really pulverized a #5 pitcher (Joe Blanton0 but were completely shut down by better pitching.  We seem to have no answer to replace struggling hitters like Morse, Desmond, and Ankiel.  Ankiel in particular seems completely overmatched against lefties right now.   5 of our 9 starters are at or near the mendoza line.

Overall Summary

Well, Its a miracle we’re even near .500 as a team.  Our starters have really been stepping up.  MASN had a pretty startling stat comparing the team ERA of our staff through the first 13 games of this year (3.55 versus something north of 6.5).  Unfortunately, we just have to wait for the lineup to come around, since we don’t have much of anything in the minors to help out.

Marquis puts in his 2nd good outing in a row

We’re two turns through the rotation now and the team sits at 4-5.  Here’s some rundowns on how the pitching is trending.

Good

• Half the Bullpen.  2010 holdovers Clippard, Storen, and Burnett are pitching lights out to open the season.  Now if only the Nats still had the other half of the 2010 bullpen still here… (see the “bad” section).
• Jordan Zimmermann‘s 2nd start on 4/8 (blog/gamer/box) went decently.  5 1/3, 6 hits, 2 runs 0 walks and 4 ks.  He left the game with the lead and Goessling notes that he looked sharp early (the 4Ks were in the first two innings).  He got yanked in the 6th on 99 pitches all in all, in favor of Slaten to do a lefty-lefty matchup.  Some commenters note the early hook as over-managing perhaps; I don’t have that big a problem with early hooks early in the season, especially for someone on a known innings limit for the season.  Remember, we have a bullpen full of guys who need work and havn’t thrown in a few days (Gaudin, Slaten and Broderick in particular).  Zimmermann’s control was good (68 of 99 for strikes) and his fastball was strong (avg of 92, max 94.8).
• Jason Marquis.  I’m writing this at the end of the 6th of his 4/10 start (gamer/box) assuming that Marquis is coming out of the game.  His line: 6ip, 7hits, 2 BBs, 9ks and 3 earned runs.  Without context, this line looks mediocre.  However, by watching the game you get a different feel.  3 of those 7 hits were infield hits, another a broken bat RBI single.  Only two halfway-decently hit balls all day (one was a really nice piece of hitting by David Wright to knock in the first run).  Marquis seemed to work around difficulties with his fastball all day, and got 9Ks by virtue of some great off speed stuff.  Of the three runs scored, one was only in scoring position thanks to a passed ball on a 3rd strike.  The umpires blatantly missed three pretty obvious calls in the field, extending Marquis’ outing.  He was in position for the loss (since Chris Wright is pitching a one-hitter through 7 innings despite a fastball that is only in the 85-86mph range) until the Nats got to Carrasco in the 8th to tie the game.  I’d rate his outing as a success and something to build on.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez‘s 4/6/11 start (gamer/box) was not nearly as good as his opening day start.  He labored in Florida, taking nearly 100 pitches to get through 5 innings.  6 hits, 5 walks and 4 runs.  He really struggled in the first inning, only throwing 8 of 24 pitches for strikes.  He blew the 4-run lead his team had staked him and the bullpen did the rest.  I wonder if this is the year that Livan finally gets yanked out of the rotation (he basically hasn’t missed a start in his career, despite a fastball that’s only averaging 83-84mph).
• The other Half of the bullpen: Gaudin and Coffey continue to be very poor replacements for last year’s highly effective duo of Bautista and Peralta.  An offensively-challenged team like the Nats needs to keep every lead it gets; this is one of the main reasons we lost 100+ games two years running.  Last year we had a good bullpen thing going, but management failed to keep two of the key members and rolled the dice with two new guys plus a rule5 acquisition.  I see this experiment going badly, soon.
• Brian Broderick: the whole Broderick situation is looking worse and worse.  After giving up a few more runs on 4/9, he’s got an era in the 20s.  Riggelman had said before he plans on only using him in no-pressure situations (read: complete blowouts), which reduces the bullpen by one.  Except that on 4/9, when most of his bullpen needed a night off, he was forced to use Broderick in a close situation.  So he comes in and lets the game get out of hand.  This was one of the main reasons I advocated AGAINST a team like the Nats keeping a rule5 guy (as discussed in this March 16th post).  I would like to see the Nats negotiate a trade with the Cardinals so we can stash him in AAA and bring up Balester.

Not good or bad necessarily.

• John Lannan‘s 4/6 start (running thread/gamer/box) didn’t look that great (5ip, 7hits, 3ER) as he demonstrated the danger of leadoff hits or walks.  Three straight baserunners to start the game lead to two runs and it could have been worse had he not embarassed Logan Morrison on three straight curveballs to get out of an easy sac fly situation for a 3rd run.  Lannan’s showing more velocity than I remember, 90-91mph but acting like a sinkerballer (cool stat heard on TV; Lannan ranks 4th in the majors over the past few years in ground-ball percentage).  I put Lannan closer to the “good” category because his BABIP is .333 and his xFIP ranks him best among the starters so far.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s season debut 4/9 (gamer/box) had some good (he retired 8 straight after giving up 2 first inning runs and he had 8 Ks in 5 1/3 innings), and some bad (two homers plus a long fly-ball that almost was a third homer to Carlos Beltran, needing 26 pitches to get out of the first inning and throwing 98 to complete just 5 1/3 innings).  Hi start may have gone completely differently had he gotten a borderline strike-3 call the pitch prior to Beltran’s first inning homer.  I like WHIP as a better rough indicator than ERA for starters; and Gorzelanny may have given up 6 runs (5 earned) in less than 6 innings, but he only put 6 baserunners on in those 5 1/3 innings.  Most of the time, a whip around 1 per inning gets absorbed by double plays and stranded base runners; today they all scored.

Quick Thoughts on the offense

• The words “Partially torn labrum” are not a good thing for Adam LaRoche, and I’m afraid we’re about to lose him for a very long time.  Like perhaps the season.  To make matters worse he hurt his leg sliding on Sunday and was taken out of the game (putting Pudge at 1B for the first time in years).  Ironically, Michael Morse playing first base was a very early-into-the-offseason suggestion; keep Josh Willingham in left and play Morse at first.  Of course, now we’re potentially looking at the worst possible situation; we blow FA dollars on a 2nd tier first-baseman, trade away Willingham for assets that are either hurt or in the minors, and then watch our first baseman go down with injury the first week of the season.  Not good news.
• Wilson Ramos‘s excellent start is quickly answering two questions for the Nats; who is the catcher of the (immediate) future?  And, how will Ivan Rodriguez be used this year?  Well the answer to the second question is quickly becoming “once a week backup,” as Pudge is looking incredibly over-matched at the plate.  It may be a sad ending for Pudge; despite still being excellent defensively, if he can’t hit .200 he may be forced into retirement after this season.
• I like what Danny Espinosa is doing thus far; if he can force himself into the upper-end of this lineup, the team will be better for it.  Especially as a switch hitter; he could allow us to return Werth to a more natural batting position (like 5th).

Overall Summary

Despite not getting nearly as good a set of starts as the first turn through, the team takes 2 of 3 in NY and salvages a .500 road trip.  Can’t ask for much more than that.  I’m going the Wednesday game and can’t wait to see Roy Halladay vs Lannan.  Should be good.

Lannan has the only W for the rotation thus far. Photo: blog.prorumors.com

A major league team’s rotation cycles somewhere between 33-34 times a year.  As I did with the Spring training games, I will try to do a good/bad/indifferent each time through for the pitching staff.  I’ll focus more on the starters but will mention the relievers as is merited.

Good

• Livan Hernandez‘s opening day start (running blog/gamer/box score) may have gone down as a loss, but it was a pretty nifty gem.  He gave up two runs on four hits with no walks in 6 1/3 on only 77 pitches.  He retired 15 in a row after a 2nd inning homer given up to Jason Heyward.  He may have gotten the loss but it was a quality start for sure and he probably pitches a complete game if the Nats could score.
• John Lannan goes 5 complete for the win in the 2nd game of the season (blog/gamer/box score).  Its amazing what a little run support will do for a guy.  I do agree though with Steven from FJB, who criticizes the decision to bring Lannan back after an hour’s rain delay just so he can pitch the 5th and get the W.  Why would he have possibly had Lannan return after an hour’s delay?  That’s why you have long men in the bullpen.  That should have been Broderick or Gaudin in to re-start the game.
• Jordan Zimmermann‘s first start of the season (running blog/gamer/box score) was promising: 2er in 6ip and finishing those 6 innings in just 84 pitches.  Not very many Ks though (only two through six) for a strike out pitcher.  Perhaps he was pitching to contact.
• Sean Burnett: apparently our new “closer” for now.  He’s pitched pretty effectively in limited opportunities.
• Jason Marquis: his 4/5 start (gamer and box)was the first game that I have gotten to see.  And I thought he looked pretty good.  He went 6 1/3, gave up 6 hits and 0 walks and was efficient all night (he was only at 78 pitches when he got removed).  He only had 2 ks but was throwing lots of strikes.   His fastball showed around 90 with great movement and he got lots of groundballs (11 grounders and 5 fly balls).  The middle of the Marlins order had his number but he controlled the rest of the squad.

Bad

• Doug Slaten: three games and three failures in the Loogy role to start the season.  Gotta do better.  Your job is to get the lefties out.  He may not have given up an earned run yet but his whip is a nifty 12.00 through three games.
• The Bullpen on 4/3/11.  Broderick, Gaudin, and Coffey‘s 4/3/11 performances.  Not.  Good.  Notice that these three guys are all brand new to a very good bullpen last year.  I’m not panicking, but i am saying.  Balester may have his ears burning if (especially) Gaudin can’t get it done.

Possibly Concerning

• Storen seems to be getting his confidence back.  But he cannot be giving up two hits and a walk in the 9th inning of a tied game (as he did on 4/5).  He’s not getting any Ks either, and we need his k/9 ratio to be up in the 8.5-9.0 range.

Pitching Summary:

We’ve had four starts and gotten 3 “real” quality starts (plus Lannan on his way to a 4th when a rain delay caused his night to be shortened).  You cannot ask for much more out of your starting rotation.  Last year our first four starts went like this:

• Lannan; 3 2/3ip, 7 hits, 3bbs and 5 runs.
• Marquis: 4ip, 8 hits, 3 bbs and 6 runs.
• Stammen: 5ip, 9 hits, 4 runs.
• Mock: 3 1/3ip, 4hits but FIVE walks and 2 runs.

For the record, that was 17 runs in 16 innings over 4 days.  Our first four starts in 2011 elicited 23 2/3ip and just 7 earned runs.  Quite the turn around.  Too bad the team couldn’t score any runs and went 1-3.

Thoughts on the offense

We’re getting great production out of our stars (Zimmerman has a 1.406 ops through 4 games and Werth is at .945).  Ramos is mashing the ball and Espinosa is 4/10 so far.  The rest of the team?  Bad.  Until last night the lead off  hitters were 0-for-the-season and Riggleman is already swapping players around to put Espinosa at leadoff (a pretty good decision if he can handle it).  Ankiel is 1/12 (but that “one” is a mashed homer, which St. Louis fans are probably cackling about, since they continually warn Nats fans that this is exactly what Ankiel does).  They’ve only scored 10 runs in 4 games (6 of them in their sole win) and definitely need to show better run support.

Summary

Great starting pitching to go with little run support.  I hope this isn’t the story of the season.