Liam Doyle can sure strike them out; but is it Nuke Laloosh style? Photo via his X
Here’s our third check-in on the 1-1 candidates, focusing on the College players now that they’re six weeks (aka six weekend series) into their seasons. We’re into the conference schedules, so no more patty cakes for these guys, and we should start to see some better indication of how good these guys are.
LaViolette: Jace has had a couple solid weeks, raising his average from the low .200s to a more solid looking .284, part of his current .284/.434/.568 slash line. His TAMU team is falling off a cliff, getting swept in their first two SEC series, but he looked decent at Vanderbilt last weekend, going a combined 4-10 with a homer and 3 walks. He needs to get hot to get himself back in 1-1 discussions.
Arnold: Continued his hot start with a scoreless (albeit short) outing against Boston College two weekends ago, then got shelled at Miami in his first real test of the season, giving up 7ER in 4IP. Unfortunately, Mike Rizzo was in Miami for the start, and probably didn’t like what he saw. Curiously, he’s yet to get to 80 pitches in any start this year. Is that b/c its been cold (in Tallahasse??), he’s still getting stretched out (he’s got 6 starts now?) or because his team didn’t “need” him to go deeper than 75 pitches/5 innings? Some question marks here.
Bremner: cruised past the weaker Miami 6ip/1ER, then gave up 3ER in the 5th against the tougher UC Irvine to take a loss despite a quality start. His team mustered just 4 hits on the day. His season numbers look “okay” but not fantastic, and I can’t see getting excited to take this guy 1-1.
Arquette: his average took a nose dive in the past couple of weeks as GCU/Santa Clara held him to just a 2-13 line, then Cal Poly “held” him to a 2-10 weekend (both hits were homers). He’s still slashing above 1,000.
Doyle continues to have circus numbers on the season, maintaining his 18 K/9 rate. But now the hard part; SEC play. It took him 105 pitches to go 4 2/3 against Florida two weeks ago (phew) but he only had two walks. Sounds like a lot of full counts. Then he got hit against Alabama, giving up 6 in 6 to take two straight losses as Tennessee’s ace (110 pitches to finish 6 innings). I wonder; are scouts already thinking reliever here? 100 pitches to get through 5 innings in college would probably be 3 innings in the pros.
Kilensuffered a Hamstring injury that has had him sitting since 3/18/25. He’s slashing .431/.552/.986 for a ridiculous 1,538 OPS figure for the season, but he’s now set to miss SEC play. They’re hopeful he’s back for next weekend.
Taylor sports a healthy 1,200 OPS right now. His problem will be competition: Indiana doesn’t exactly play a powerhouse schedule. They did have to visit UCLA last weekend, and he went 3-11 with a homer. But, hitting .370 against Ohio State and Penn State isn’t that impressive. Furthermore, a ton of his stats are built on mid-week games against a college called “The Mount,” who i’ve never heard of but who Indian beat 18-5 and 20-7 in two mid-week games. I may drop covering him unless he does something against a solid opponent.
Summerhill maintains a .400 BA 6 weeks into the season against what admittedly looks like one of the tougher pre-conference schedules I’ve seen. He profiles as a rangy OF, maybe CF, playing RF and batting leadoff for Arizona. He has some power. We’ll see how he holds on as AZ enters deeper into its Big12 schedule.
The Race for 1-1: Arnold takes a step back, Bremner looks meh, Arquette comes back to reality, Doyle can’t find the plate, and LaViolette takes a step back in the right direction but is it too little, too late? And, does this college churn pave the way for Holliday to return to 1-1 status?
This will be the last time we use Crews’ image on a prospect list. Next up hopefully we’re talkinga bout ROY. Photo via Crews’ Instagram page.
You read that headline correctly. Believe it or not, I have more than 100 names on my list for this system, and its time to reveal them.
There’s only about 165 players even allowed to be on minor league domestic rosters, then add in another 30-35 players in the DSL, so naming 100 players is a sizeable chunk of all the players on our minor league payroll. However, I got to 100 players by virtue of including basically every prospect in our system who has EVER appeared on a single other pundit’s ranking, to go along with a few pet prospects of my own from recent drafts and IFA classes.
Yes, it is a fool’s errand to rank higher than 40. Anything above 50-60 is patently ridiculous. Naming a player the 95th prospect in a system of 165 is crazy. But, here we are.
I’ll chunk these up into groupings of 10 for readability, and since honestly above the 50-60 range there’s not a whole lot between the guy ranked 50th and 90th. Note: I did this ranking and writeup before the two Spring Breakout games (Nats/Astros box and Nats/Mets box) which were a useful tool to do prospect evaluation since it’s quite telling who the team chose to bring and play versus who they did not. I’ll sprinkle in comments throughout and how I would have adjusted some of these ranks with this late-breaking news.
My prospect ranking guidelines, which you’ll see here:
I like floor versus ceiling. I’ll have a guy like, say, Andrew Alvarez ranked higher than some 17yr old in the DSL with a huge bonus because, well, Alvarez is in AAA right now while that 17yr old may have a $3M bonus but we’re talking 5 years and a thousand things that could go wrong with the guy before he’s at the same place Alvarez is right now.
I don’t think relievers are worthy of being top-30 prospects. I think its ridiculous to have someone like Brzycky ranked in the 20s when his ceiling seems to be half a war as the 5th guy out of the MLB bullpen, while the team could convert Rutledge to a closer tomorrow and probably get more value. (Edit: we’ve now learned that, finally, Rutledge IS going to the bullpen, so this throw-away comment now seems prophetic).
Same thing to a lesser extent with guys who have a ceiling of backup middle-infielder, 1B/DH/Bench bat, or 2nd catcher. They’re just not going to be in my top 30, but as we’ll see my 31-40 is littered with them. It’s not that they’re not important … its just that (like relievers) they’re failed starters who are the definition of replacement players.
2024 draft picks and 2025 IFA signings have yet to play for the most part, so I tend to rank them lower than star-glazed prospect watchers elsewhere.
If someone is in the DSL … I struggle to give them a ranking inside the top 30 unless they cleaned up there. I really want to see players with domestic stats before really considering them for the top 30.
Here we go.
1 Dylan Crews OF (CF) 2 Travis Sykora RHP (Starter) 3 Brady House SS/3B 4 Jarlin Susana RHP (Starter) 5 Seaver King SS 6 Yohandy Morales 3B 7 Cayden Wallace 3B 8 Cade Cavalli RHP (Starter) 9 Alex Clemmey LHP (Starter) 10 Robert Hassell III OF (CF)
1-10 comments:
Nothing shocking about 1-5, except maybe the order of 2-3-4.
I’m not ready to drop House below Susana. A reminder: if House had gone to college, he’d be a 21-yr old with zero pro stats, not in MLB camp. Also, at the Spring Breakout game Susana looked god-awful (yanked in the 1st on pitch count, 5 walks, just 1 K, lit up by the Astros hitters. SSS but telling of the issues he had early on).
I have kept Morales at #6, preferring to believe he’s still that high and doesn’t deserve to get dropped a dozen slots like most other pundits who layered him while also admitting he had a frigging hand injury mid 2024. However: Three whiffs in the breakout game; not impressive.
I’m higher on Wallace than many, and I think the team is going to have some serious issues finding PT for both him and Wallace this season (presuming Wallace gets bumped to AAA). However, if the Breakout game is any indicator, we know the plan: Wallace played 2B. He’s shorter and stockier than House and handled the position well enough. He hit 3rd, right behind House, something we may see in AAA soon enough.
I may be too high on Cavalli, but I also havn’t forgotten that in mid 2022 he was our #1 prospect and one of the best arms in the minors. Yes, I am concerned he’s taken 18 months to get back. Maybe he should be lower. 2025 is the year he either blows up in the majors or becomes the next Cole Henry.
I’m not quite as high on Clemmey; like him, want to see him do more above low-A. He did get the start in the second breakout game and looked solid.
Hassell stays in my top #10: I had him slightly lower before his great spring. I wonder if the Nats take a look at Wood/Young/Crews mid-season and look to package Hassell and another blocked player like a Wallace or Made for a major starting pitcher, because I’m finding it harder and harder to think those two will ever get reps for this team. Notably, Hassell was not at the Breakout game, probably b/c he’s making such an impression in MLB camp.
11 Caleb Lomavita C 12 Luke Dickerson SS/CF 13 Andry Lara RHP (Starter) 14 Tyler Stuart RHP (Starter) 15 Daylen Lile OF (CF) 16 Kevin Bazzell C/3B 17 Jake Bennett LHP (Starter) 18 Brad Lord RHP (Starter) 19 Angel Feliz 3B/SS 20 Andrew Pinckney OF (Corner)
11-20 Comments:
I’m a little lower on Dickerson than others. That’s because I want to see prep kids hit with wood before naming them the next coming of Mike Trout. He got an AB and a whiff in the Breakout game, going against a polished AAA reliever with stuff. Would love to see him make the Low-A team out of spring, but something tells me its XST until June.
I’m probably a bit higher on both Lara and Stuart than others; Floor impresses me more than ceiling, though Lara’s splits (as pointed out by Law) are shocking.
Lile at 15: we’ve talked about him a lot. TL/DR: I think he’s an undersized 4th outfielder completely blocked by better prospects in our system who will never play for us and should get traded to a team that might give him a chance. I will say this: he looked really solid at the Breakout game, leading off, looking like a real pro at the plate.
I have Lord higher than anyone; his 2024 season impressed the hell out of me, and It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he gets added to the 40-man and called up in 2025. If that’s not a top-20 prospect, then I dunno what is. He was on the breakout roster but didn’t throw, as they had really odd pitching choices (choosing to throw Alvarez and Shuman 3-innings each instead of distributing the workload and giving guys like Lord and others more PT).
Pinckney at 20: I’m not sure I see it, but others do; the team has invited him to spring training two years in a row now. He’s a lanky CF-capable guy who didn’t exactly light it up in AA or AAA last year, and when i’ve seen him I see a tall guy with a slow, loopy bat. He’s got the same problem as Lile: better guys already playing in the majors. On our depth chart, he’s behind our three young MLB starters, behind Hassell, behind Call, probably behind the recently outrighted Garrett, and if it came to it you’d have to think he’s behind Lile as well. Not sure what the future is here. I should probably have him in the mid 25s, but I wanted to keep him ahead of the three outfielders at the top of the next section for obvious reasons. All that said … he impressed in the Breakout game, played CF ahead of a slew of our OF prospects and whacked a homer. So I dunno.
Bazzell caught the back part of the first spring breakout game … and he looks like a Catcher. I know he was listed as a C/3B, but he’s gonna be behind the dish. Is it notable that Keith Law actually ranked him HIGHER than Lomavita in his list? We’ll soon see: I suspect they’ll be trading off days in Low-A to start the season.
21 Cristian Vaquero OF (CF) 22 Victor Hurtado OF 23 Elijah Green OF (CF) 24 Rafael Ramirez Jr. SS 25 Kevin Made SS 26 Jackson Kent LHP (Starter) 27 Armando Cruz SS 28 Andrew Alvarez LHP (Starter) 29 Brayan Cortesia SS 30 Andres Chaparro 1B/DH
21-30 comments:
We should call this the “Wasted Bonus Money” portion of the rankings. Vaquerio (4.9M), Hurtado ($2.8M), Green ($6.5M) and Cruz ($3.9M) comprise basically the entirety of three IFA draft classes and our 6th overall pick two years ago, and none of them have really done anything except fall in these rankings and scuffle in the low minors. These guys all were “worth” this money at one point, at least according to our talent evaluators, and I suppose all of them can turn the corner and rebound, hence being in the 21-30 range.
That said, Green looked awfully good in the Breakout game: laced a double, crushed a homer to Left center. Of course true to his form, four of his five ABs were three-true-outcomes: he also had a walk and two whiffs. The team has not given up on this guy, as evidenced by his start in this game, and he’s not gonna get cut with his much bonus money in him. Lets hope he makes some adjustments.
Chaparro has exhausted his rookie eligibility by service time but not ABs (kinda like Nunez), so I ranked him at the edge of the top 30. He destroyed AAA pitching last year and probably is the leading bench bat in the majors. So what if he has no position? He seems like he can hit. He’ll quickly graduate and it won’t matter, but a guy who’s going to make the MLB roster with rookie eligibility really should be ranked somewhat highly. Maybe I should treat him with the same thought process of middle relievers and backup infielders, since he’s 1B/DH limited. In a couple weeks it won’t matter anyway.
I consider both Ramirez Jr. and Made the same guy: all glove-no hit SS prospects who some guys love, but I wish they hit better than .220 (Made) or .183 (Ramirez). For now, they project at short, but they may plummet down the prospect list if they continue to not hit. Notably, neither was at the Prospects game as King started both games.
Alvarez at #28; I have him by far higher than anyone else. Getting to AAA matters. And the Nats agree with me, giving him 3 innings at the Breakout game where he looked pretty solid honestly. He had cleaner mechanics than I remember, reminding me of Mike Hampton; upright, 3/4 delivery, simple motion.
$1.9M buys you a top-30 spot if you are Cortesia. I hate ranking 16yr old IFA signings like this but he’s pretty highly regarded. Hopefully he’s not in the 50s at this time next year (see further down for failed IFA signings)
31 Darren Baker 2B 32 Zach Brzykcy RHP (Reliever) 33 Evan Reifert RHP (Reliever) 34 Jackson Rutledge RHP (now a Reliver) 35 Daniel Hernandez C 36 Drew Millas C 37 Sammy Peterson OF (CF) 38 Orlando Ribalta RHP (Reliever) 39 Marquis Grissom RHP (Reliever) 40 Cole Henry RHP (Reliever)
31-40 comments:
Here’s where I’m dumping all the relievers that others may have in the 20s. Brzycky, Reifert, Ribalta, and Grissom primarily, plus now Rutledge.
If I down-grade relievers, I probably should down grade middle-infielder backup ceiling players like Baker, and backup catchers like Millas, hence their placement in this range.
Reifert (our rule-5 pickup) may not be long for the team with his awful spring training, and with the rise of the likes of Ribalta and Henry this spring it makes no sense to saddle the bullpen with an arm who can’t get anyone out. But, he belongs in this area.
Speaking of Henry; he was 10 slots lower on my board before it became known he was moving to the bullpen this spring and started getting guys out. He’s already been optioned to AAA, which is fine, and I hope to see him pitching the 8th or 9th for Rochester to start the season.
Speaking of guys who should have converted to relief … Rutledge comes in at #34 because, frankly, I think he needs to move to the bullpen. And, it may happen soon; Yeah, I wrote that before Zuckerman reported that he’s going to the Pen.
AAA rotation, now that Rutledge and Henry are out of the picture, is still looking stuffed. The glut of starters at the MLB level likely sends both Herz and Ogasawara to AAA, along with Cavalli. You already have guys that were in the AAA rotation like Lord, Stuart, and Alvarez who shouldn’t make way. You also have newly added 40-man Lara, who should be in AAA but probably starts in AA. AND you have a couple of new acquisitions that probably should be in that rotation too (Plinkington and Choi). That’s way, way too many starters and something is going to give. I’m guessing Choi goes back to AA (he was a minor league rule-5 pick and was in AA last year). So, best guess on AAA rotation: Herz, Ogasawara, Cavalli, Lord, Alvarez, with Stuart, Lara, Choi back to AA and Plinkington in long-relief/utility man area.
Grissom was an interesting look at the prospects game: works fast, his best pitch is a changeup, and he pitched a clean inning. But, did he look like a guy who could succeed in a MLB pen? I don’t think so.
We do have a couple of guys in this section who might push forward soon: Hernandez was one of our big-money 2025 IFA signings and I only put him this high b/c BA loves him. Peterson may have been an 8th rounder, but MLBPipeline has him as our #30 prospect. So, I stuck both in this section to acknowledge that the pros like them and we’ll see how they play this year.
41 Robert Cranz RHP (Reliever->Starter?) 42 Randal Diaz SS/3B 43 Jose Feliz RHP (Starter) 44 Dashyll Tejeda OF (CF) 45 Brayan Romero RHP (Starter) 46 Phillips Glasser SS 47 Tyler Schoff RHP (Reliever) 48 Carlos Tavares OF 49 Manuel Cabrera SS 50 Jose Atencio RHP (Starter)
41-50 comments:
I’ll be honest: the sole reason I have Cranz and Diaz here was because Keith Law put both of the 2024 draftees in his top 20. Cranz was a 7th rounder reliever in college who apparently has four pitches and will be a starter this year. BA also put him in at #24 for the system, so Law isn’t crazy here. It was telling that Diaz was at the Prospects games though, and he may be trending higher.
This range seems to be the “halfway promising DSL player” section. That includes Feliz, Tejeda, Tavares, and Cabrera.
Feliz was the best DSL starter last year and Tejeda was the best hitter (either him or Angel Felix, ranked #19). After such an awful crop of 2023 players, i’m hopeful these two will move stateside soon.
Romero is only here b/c BA put him as #30. I lampooned that pick in my review of their top 30 list; maybe I’m wrong.
I like Atencio, and probably should have him a bit higher after his 2024. He graduated from Low-A then threw 19 High-A starts at a 3.41 clip. He’s not higher b/c he’s not a big K/9 guy.
Glasser may be completely undeserving of a mid 40s spot, but he did start the second breakout game and went 2-2 with a walk.
51 Nick Peoples OF 52 Hyun-Il Choi RHP (Starter) 53 Chase Solesky RHP (Starter) 54 Kyle Luckham RHP (Starter) 55 Angel Roman LHP (Starter) 56 Jack Sinclair RHP (Reliever) 57 Everett Cooper SS 58 T.J. White OF (Corner) 59 Elian Soto OF/SS 60 Marcus Brown SS/2B
51-60 comments:
This seems to be where I’m sticking “Starters who have had some success and who could still succeed for this team.” That includes Choi, Solesky, and Luckham, all of whom have gotten to the AA level and succeeded there. In fact, i thought Soleksy might actually get protected in Rule-5, having been sent to the AFL last fall.
Peoples, Cooper, White, and Brown all fall into the same category: they were all 2021-22 draft picks who were at one point fringe top 30 guys who have struggled as they’ve moved up the chain. TJ White was as high as #19 on a list last year and is completely off every major list this year. Interestingly, He was the DH/cleanup hitter in the second breakout game, meaning he’s still on the prospect radar.
Soto is, of course, younger brother of Juan. He’s nowhere close to where his brother was at this stage of his career of course: Juan debuted in the majors at 19 while Elian is hitting .175 in the FCL at 19. Is he a prospect? He’s sticking in this range on name alone.
Sinclair got an appearance at the Prospects game, bailing out Susana in the first. He has big time movement on his fastball, which had great arm-side ride despite not being that high in velocity. He seems like the kind of guy who can sit in a bullpen for a while getting outs.
61 Luke Young RHP (Starter) 62 Rony Bello INF 63 Yoel Tejada Jr. RHP (Reliever) 64 Brenner Cox OF (CF) 65 Lucas Knowles LHP (Reliever) 66 Daison Acosta RHP (reliever) 67 Hector Liriano OF 68 Dustin Saenz LHP (Starter) 69 Sir Jamison Jones CA 70 Mark Davis RHP (Starter)
61-70 comments:
A lot of these guys are here b/c they were on the fringes of the Prospects1500 top 50 list, so I gave them some credit in the 60-70 range.
Bello is a 2025 IFA bonus ranking, something I hate to do but whatever, its #62.
I like Saenz and Knowles; they’ve both had really solid seasons for the team in the last couple of years. But, both may have also hit ceilings.
Sir Jamison Jones: he’s an interesting one; decent scouting report, still shocked he signed. Will he turn into Cox (who I have at #64 here) or will he stand out? He was a defensive C sub in the second breakout game.
Daison Acosta might very well make the MLB this year, with a live arm and a 2025 NRI. Maybe he should be higher, like in the 30-40 “decent relievers” section.
Tejada pitched the last two innings of the second breakout game, probably a telling appearance. He’s still on the XST roster.
71 Roismar Quintana 1B/OF 72 Seth Shuman RHP (Starter) 73 Jeremy De La Rosa OF (Corner) 74 Jermaine Maricuto 1B/C 75 Leuris Portorreal RHP (Starter) 76 Gavin Dugas 2B 77 Mikey Tepper RHP (Starter) 78 Michael Cuevas RHP (Starter) 79 Leodarlyn Colon RHP (Starter) 80 Brandon Pimentel 1B
71-80 range:
Several guys in this section who used to be far higher up the list; Quintana, Shuman, and De La Rosa.
I’ve always liked Shuman: he missed 2020 with Covid and 2023 with injury, now is 27 and put up decent stats in AA .. but he’s too old. I don’t entirely understand why the team didn’t promote him more aggressively last year. Then, he pops up in the Breakout game and threw the last three innings cleanly. So, maybe he should be higher.
Maricuto and Portorreal were basically the best of the 2023 IFA class and a couple of the few that graduated to Florida last year.
Pimentel: one shop randomly had him in their top 50 so I threw him in here.
I’ve always thought Dugas had the potential to be a real baller, despite being a senior sign.
Tepper is probably ranked here b/c he’s got local ties (he went to Liberty), but his numbers last year weren’t half bad.
81 Jared McKenzie OF (CF) 82 Joe Narango 1B 83 Jorgelys Mota SS 84 Miguel Gomez RHP (Reliever) 85 Liam Sullivan LHP (Starter) 86 Yoander Rivero SS 87 Bryan Sanchez RHP (Starter) 88 Viandel Pena SS 89 Andy Acevedo OF 90 Elijah Nunez OF (Corner)
81-90 commentary
A hodge podge of players here.
Narango was a MLFA who can still hit.
Acevedo was a big-bonus 2023 IFA who was ranked as high as #19 by Fangraphs two years ago (Longenhagen really likes Ceiling) but who havn’t done much.
Sullivan made two starts and hit the DL, missing the whole season in Low-A but I think he could be something as long as it wasn’t TJ that costs him all of 2025.
91 Matt Suggs C 92 Max Romero Jr. C 93 Pablo Aldonis LHP (Starter) 94 Todd Peterson RHP (Reliever) 95 Carlos Batista OF 96 Johnathan Thomas OF (CF) 97 Gabriel Agostini LHP (Reliever) 98 Branden Boissiere OF (Corner) 99 Juan Garcia SS 100 Juan Obispo OF 101 Nathan Ochoa Leyva OF (Corner) 102 Holden Powell RHP (Reliever) 103 Jackson Cluff SS 104 J.T. Arruda SS
91-104 commentary
This range gets players who had like a season of high-hopes, and now have had several seasons of lack of production that has put their ceiling as an org guy.
Boissiere is one of those 1B/corner OF who has never really hit but who sticks around. He was a 3rd rounder and got a bit of a bonus, which may explain it.
Holden Powell: case study why you shouldn’t draft guys who are already relievers in college.
Cluff, Arruda, Thomas: all guys who have worked their way up the org but who now are waiting out the 6year MLFA string. Thomas appeared in the second breakout game.
So, I may have Romero way too low here. He was the starting catcher at the first Breakout game, catching 6 innings while Bazzell got the last few. Maybe he’s a better prospect than I gave him credit for. I’ll probably move him into the 40-50 range just based on principle after this publishes.
Speaking of the first Breakout game, here’s the ranks for the starters, subs, and arms:
Game 1:
Lile: 15
House: 3
Wallace: 7
Morales: 6
Pinckney: 20
King: 5
Green: 23
Romero: 92
Cox: 66
Subs
Mota: 84
Cruz: 27
Tavares: 48
Peterson: 37
Dickerson: 12
Bazzell: 16
Arms
Susana: 4
Sinclair: 56
Grissom: 39
Alvarez: 28
Shuman: 72
Top 20 Prospects not in either Breakout game: Crews (1), Sykora (2), Cavalli (8), Hassell (10), Lara (13), Stuart (14), Bennett (17), Lord (18), Feliz (19).
Phew. 104 players. did I miss anyone? Did I accidentally list someone here that we released (I did that last year I think). I did a quick glance at our Draft boards and tried to find the highest drafted non-senior sign players from the last few draft classes not mentioned in the top 104:
2023: 9th rounder Thomas Shultz, high-a closer and who pitched in the breakout game.
2023: 12th rounder Travis Sthele: low-A starter
2022: 7th rounder Riley Cornelio: this is a surprise b/c he’s been a rotation starter since he got here.
2022: 8th rounder Chance Huff: middle reliever in High-A.
2021: 14th rounder Erik Tolman, injured Low-A starter
I’m also completely missing Carlos Romero, who was in the 2nd breakout game and who is a reliever in AAA. I checked in my XLS and when he hit 6yr MLFA I turned him inactive. Clearly he’s been retained/resigned and so I’ll probably throw him in the 50s somewhere going forward.
We introduced a new segment this year, based on our team having the 1st overall pick (which is abbreviated “1-1” meaning 1st round, 1st pick) of the 2025 draft. Since we’ll get our choice of players for the first time in a generation. I’m putting in periodic updates about the candidates to go 1st overall.
Here’s a one-month check-in on the top College candidates, who now have four weeks worth of competition, along with links for the top prep candidates in the mix.
LaViolette: One month in, and he’s still only hitting .235. His OBP is ok (.414) and his Slugging solid (.515). He had a great Friday night against New Mexico State last weekend, but took o-fers in mid-week games against UTSA and Texas-Southern, which is an abomination. Mid-week starters are like the 4th or 5th starters, and UTSA/Texas-Southern aren’t exactly SEC quality opponents. He’s playing his way, not only out of the 1-1 conversation, but maybe even out of the top 10.
Arnold: After two solid games to open the season, he gave up 2 runs in 5IP against the non-powerhouse Georgetown Hoyas on 2/28, then hasn’t pitched since. He was scratched against Lipscomb with “illness” for his 3/7 start. At least it wasn’t b/c of an arm issue. We’ll see how he bounces back as they open ACC play against Boston College next Friday. BC just hammered UVA, so they’ll be an interesting out.
Bremner: he bounced back after two middling starts to shut down Fresno State with 7ip, 3hits, 1run, but only 4Ks. He then gave up three runs to Cal State Northridge, not an impressive outing. He needs to show some 7ip, 3hit, 10k, 0BB outings and fast if he wants to be a top 10 draft pick.
Arquette got the Keith Law Treatment, whose TL/DR summary is this: “he’s too big to play SS, struggled when i saw him, but he’s probably the best college hitter right now.” Through 4 weeks of play, he’s sporting the healthy slash line of .400/.492/.640. And he’s doing it against what probably is the toughest early season schedule out there as Oregon State embarks on its non-affiliated life post PAC-12.
Canarella has decent if not sparkling stats so far. .288/.431/.462. Not a ton of power/XBH so far (just 1 HR). He was more well regarded last year and isn’t re-pushing upwards to regain his top spot so far.
Doyle is pushing his name upwards so far this year. Through 4 starts, he’s got “oversized little leaguer” stats right now. 20.1 IP, 6 hits, 1 run given up for a 0.44 ERA. But he’s got a 47/5 K/BB ratio in those 20.1 IP, which means that of the 61 batters he’s retired thus far, 47 have been by whiff. Wow. His 4 opponents: Hofstra, Samford, Oklahoma State, and St. Bonaventure. Ok so not the greatest competition, but against OK State he still had 9Ks in 4 1/3rd IP.
Kilen has popped up on radars b/c of silly stats he’s putting up in Tennessee’s early season. He’s got an obscene slash line right now of .463/.589/1.093 slugging for an OPS figure north of 1.600. And he’s not even the biggest OPS figure on his team. He’s got 8 homers in 16 games to go with a ton of other XBHs. Is he a top prospect? He’s an undersized 2B with a hot start; we’ll see if he can keep things going.
Holliday has nothing new that I can find; its March so his HS season probably hasn’t started yet, but his HS stats would be useless anyway.
Hernandez; same as Holliday. All we can hope for is a scouting trip like what Law posted for Cunning ham.
Cunningham had a snippet in Law’s latest scouting notebook. TL/DR: “he’s probably not even 5’9″, has almost no power but has a great bat, and is more like a mid-1st rounder.” We may not bother covering him much further given who else is here and since we’re only projecting the best possible 1-1 candidate. A 5’8″ prep SS isn’t going 1-1.
Quick Tangent: did you see that George Mason scored TWENTY-THREE runs in the 2nd inning of their mid-week game against Holy Cross? 23 runs. Here’s the box score. The sequence of events is actually pretty hilarious. The inning included:
Eight (8) walks
Five (5) HBP
Five (5) infield hits, bunts, or fielders choices
Eight (8) hits that left the infield, several of which were bases-clearing doubles.
Someone on GMU also, in a move that probably had their coach screaming, STOLE THIRD BASE while up 13 in the inning. I’m surprised there weren’t more than 5 HBP.
Last funny item from the box score: Attendance: 25. Those Patriot fans really come out to support the team!
So, who’s in the lead to go 1-1? I’m liking what i’m seeing out of Doyle. Arquette maintaining his production. Want to see what happens with Arnold. Maybe Holliday is getting back in the mix just by virtue of the likes of LaViolette and Bremner falling.
The Real Robert Hassell III. Photo via his Twitter account.
The second to last of the major pundits dropped their Nats top 30 today on 3/4/25; here’s a review of the list as I’ve been doing with other major pundits.
The final one outstanding is Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen, who didn’t release until May last year and is only about a third of the way done with the teams as we speak. I’m not going to wait for his ranking to release my rankings, which are going 90+ deep right now for our system.
For now, here’s the MLBPipeline list. I think its safe to say this is the sanest list I’ve seen yet, with very little wildcards or shock names. It very much aligns with my personal list, as we’ll discuss.
Clemmey at #6, like a lot of the shops. I like him a little lower b/c he’s so young, but he’s a high ceiling guy for sure.
They’re by far the highest on Dickerson, and have not wavered on him being this high since their December update. I’ve got him at #12, have seen him as low as #17. I’m hesitant to have a guy top 10 who hasn’t faced a pro pitch yet, but they arent.
They’ve got Lile at #10, which is in line with most other shops. I’ve beaten the Lile horse to death at this point.
Morales: dumped down to #13. They had him at #9 in December, and he was at #5 a year ago. Ok I get that Morales clearly was layered by breakout performances (Sykora and Susana) and 2024 draft picks (King, Dickerson, Lomavita) but he should have kept pace. We’ve had this conversation at length, no need to rehash it.
I think they’re a little low on Lara at #17, but not egregiously so.
Cortesia at #20: that’s aspriational for a 16yr old DSL kid, but he did get 1st round money ($1.9M) so we’ll see how his 2025 goes.
They’re by far the high man on Jackson Kent at #21.
They really, really like Grissom Jr and have him 20 spots higher than I do. Nobody else has him in their top 30; he’s at #24 here. This is probably the biggest issue I have with their top 30.
They’re also high-man on Sam Peterson, having him at #30 despite him not getting assigned out of XST last summer.
Who they’re missing:
Chaparro apparently doesn’t rate anybody’s prospect lists. Why? He’s still a rookie, he destroyed AAA pitching last year (albeit lots in the PCL), and made the majors at age 25. Come on; you’re ranking middle RHP relievers in AA but not a guy who got 30 games in the majors last year? What are we doing?
The same story to a lesser extent for Baker: not ranked.
No love for Cruz and his $3.9M bonus
No Rutledge (who BA has at #20), finally acknowledging that he may be out of chances to contribute.
All in all, a solid list, very much in line with my rankings as they’ve now settled, and hard to criticize a ton.
Jamie Arnold has a little Alex Wood look to him, a lefty slinger who comes in almost sidearm. Photo via FSU
Did you know we’re already two weeks into the D1 college season?
Let’s look at the first two weeks of the season for some of the top-ranked candidates to go 1-1, and draw some ridiculous and wildly speculative short-sample-size driven conclusions.
Actually, more seriously, I wanted to take a bit of time to do the first part of this post, which is to capture direct links for the players in question to have a quick resource I can refer back to. So, hope you enjoy this as well to save you some googling.
I’ll focus on probably just 5-6 players right now, maybe add more if players pop this spring. Obviously can’t do this for the HS guys in the mix like Holliday but if we can find something for them i’ll add it.
LaViolette: starting slow; slashing .211/.444/.737 through two weekend series. Playing CF despite his size/projection to be a corner OF in the pros, batting 2nd. Only has four hits through 6 games but all four were XBH, pushing up his slugging and OPS. They’ve played Elon and Cal Poly on neutral fields, not exactly powerhouses, so a little disappointing of a start.
Arnold: FSU’s #1/Friday night starter: Can’t ask for a better start: 2 starts, 2 wins, 11IP and just 3 hits allowed. He went 6ip/1h against my alma mater JMU in the opener, then went 5ip/2h against Penn last weekend. Obviously Penn isn’t a baseball powerhouse but JMU can be frisky. In both games he was on a short pitch count and could have gone longer.
Bremner: UCSB’s #1/Friday starter: went 3 hitless innings to open against Campbell (rumor had it the weather was super cold), then 3 runs in 3IP against a weaker Seattle University team. Keith Law was on hand and wasn’t complementary of what he saw.
Arquette is on fire to start, playing SS and batting 2nd for OSU. Through two weekends he’s slashing .440/.559/.880 as OSU played in two top-notch tourneys to open their season. There’s definitely something to like about this guy.
Canarella has been playing CF and batting third for Clemson to start, but got subbed out of one game and missed another early in the season. He had labrum surgery (!!) in the off-season and there was some question if he’d be ready to go in Feb, and its also why some boards have him out of the top of the draft for now. So far, a slow start: .250/.333/.375 with almost no power. It’s also fair to say their opening weekend tournament was about as tough as it could be (they played OK State, Arizona, and Ole Miss). I wonder if he’s really even in the mix for the upper half of the first round.
So all these players are playing for top teams in solid divisions, which guarantees good competition when we get to conference play.
So, that’s a quick check in. Arnold and Arquette look great, LaViolette starting slow, Canarella may still be hurt, and Bremner seems like he may drop out of 1-1 contention unless he starts blowing away sub-par competition.
Keith Law has always been somewhat of a contrarian in these prospect rankings, and for good reason. His methodology for each year basically throws out last year’s results and starts over, which allows him to break free of a “prospect-retention” paradigm that plagues some ranking shops. This logic eliminates players like Elijah Green, who has performed so terribly in low-A but who was so highly regarded (and highly paid) as an upper-1st rounder in 2022. It also basically eliminates high-bonus IFA guys who have scuffled in the low minors (a methodology I agree with as well). As a result, Law often ends up with some names ranked in places that we havn’t seen before, which we’ll cover below.
Law also proven himself, especially this year, as a talent evaluator who isn’t afraid to dream on newly drafted players, especially college players, and may have some of them over-drafted.
Law’s stuff is behind a paywall, so y ou miss out on his per-player evaluations (which are insightful), but here’s his top 20:
As is tradition, lets run through this list top to bottom.
It goes without saying that so far, Law is tops on Seaver King, having him at #2 in the system. We knew this was coming b/c when Law released his top 100 for the entirety of the Minors two weeks ago, King was listed ahead of Sykora. Law projects him as a SS in the majors, with great speed, sneaky power, but his hit tool is the best. Can’t wait to see him in Wilmington this year.
The rest of the top 5 is as expected, in about the expected order. He’s worried about Sykora’s mechanics (but, to be fair, Law is worried about a lot of pitcher’s mechanics), worried about House’s lack of BB rate in AAA, and worried about Susana’s inability to get LHB out.
Quick deeper dive into Susana, because I think some of this stuff is fascinating. Here’s his fangraphs page. For the entirety of 2024, he had a BABIP of .372. .372!! That’s ridiculous, and is why his ERA was in the 4s but his FIP was in the 2s. You don’t often see a full 2-point delta between pitchers’ ERA and FIP. Here’s his MILB stats page with 2024 splits. Law pointed out that LHB had a .407 OBP against him last year; he had a 1.98 WHIP against lefties versus a 0.97 whip against righties. He attributes this to his 3/4 slot and lack of command. It sounds to me like he needs to develop a change-up that can keep lefties off-balance. The thing is, these are fringe issues with a guy who also hits 100, holds upper 90s deep into games, and doesn’t have a ton of effort in his delivery. I cannot wait to see what he does when he hits AA.
Coming in at #6: Bazzell. Phew, by far the high man on this guy. Most other shops have him in the 14-15 range. I sense his ranking is assuming that Bazzell hits like he did in college AND plays Catcher; if he’s playing 3B he’s not quite as high of a prospect. With both Bazzell and Lomavita drafted in the same draft, one has to think one is going to Low-A and the other to High-A. I find it kind of interesting that Law has Bazzell so much higher than Lomavita, who was drafted ahead/paid out more in the same draft. Honestly, this is too high for Bazzell.
He has Dickerson inside the top 10, entirely on tools. I also think this is too high, especially for a cold-weather prep kid who hasn’t yet taken a pro at bat. Like with IFAs, I like to see at least some production in the FCL before saying someone is a top 10 prospect.
Some love for Tyler Stuart, one of a handful of AAA starters we were just talking about as generally being underrated by prospect watchers (along with Lord and Alvarez). Remember: Baseball America had Stuard #25.
Morales at #12. Law had Morales ranked #6 this time last year, and in his writeup he freely admits that a) Morales had a hand injury all year and b) he “seemed” ok once he returned in August. So, like all the other shops that have dropped him … i’m just kind of at a loss. I have him #6 on my list, right now, and I don’t plan on dropping him.
He has Lile down at #14. And, it’s almost like he was reading the comments i’ve been making about him. Here’s a direct quote from Law about Lile: “Lile might be a tweener, lacking the power for an outfield corner and with just a fringe-average defense in center, leaving him in Fourth Outfielder Town, which is only two stops away from DFAville.” EXACTLY what i’ve been saying for a while now in the comments. Honestly, if Lile blows up and starts hitting .330 this year, we should just trade him. There’s more and better outfielders already in the majors, and more and better CF prospects in the minors behind him.
He’s just slightly lower on Lara than most others. Unlike Susana above, his BABIP upon reaching AA was really low, which blows up his FIP as compared to his actual ERA. His per-pitch scouting report basically shows him with slider as his #1 pitch, and the other three being 40s or 45s. That’s not good. I’ll be curious to see how this plays out, but Law is predicting him to be a 2-pitch middle reliever despite being so young and projecting to the AAA rotation.
Hassell at #16. I think Its time for me to just admit that Hassell may not be the top-end prospect I have hoped for. Law prints a shocking stat: “He didn’t have a single extra-base hit off a lefty in 76 PA last year, and had just three (all doubles) off them in 2023, for a .218 slugging percentage off southpaws over two years.” That is patently amazing. Here’s his 2024 splits. Indeed: 61 ABs versus LHPs last year and zero XBH for a slash line of .213/.319/.213. Here’s something else interesting: he was legitimately good leading off (.285/.363/.381) but patently awful when batting lower in the order. Is that someone who’s literally pouting b/c he’s not leading off? So strange. Nonetheless, its hard to ignore this, and a full season in AAA with lefty specialists may do even more to expose him.
Made at #17: i just don’t get it. I have him in the mid-30s and even that’s a stretch. But Law seems to admit the same, saying, “This is almost a placeholder — he has enough of a base of other skills to be a utility infielder, as long as he starts to hit the ball harder. If he doesn’t do that, he’s not a prospect.” At this point, i’m leaning towards the latter, having him buried in the mid 30s. Honestly, if you had to rank SS in our system right now, you’d go MLB starter: Abrams, MLB backups: Nunez/Rosario. AAA depth: Lipscomb, Made, then you have mid-minors prospects with promise like Cruz, King, and Diaz, Ramirez (who should be your AA, High-A, and Low-A starters in 2025), then you’ve got prep/DSL prospects with promise like Dickerson and Feliz. So, not a lot of pure prospect depth in the system of for-real guys who project to stick at SS … but if Made is hitting .220 in AA and you have 1st rounder Seaver King waiting in the wings producing in High-A … what are you gonna do? Made may only be 22 but he’s certainly at a cross-roads where he has to prove he’s not the next coming of Nasim Nunez.
Ok, so here’s where I have to eat some crow, having blasted BA’s list. Because the last two guys on Law’s list are surprises for sure.
#19: 2024 5th rounder Randal Diaz. This is a first time ranking anywhere for Diaz, and coming out of the 2024 draft he was not one of the handful of guys I even was projecting into the top 50. It’s one thing to rank our top bonus guys in our top 20 automatically (King, Lomavita, Dickerson, and Bazzell). It is another to do down-ballot prospect ranking, especially for under-slot 2nd day guys like Diaz and Cranz. I guess Diaz has gotten some attention lately thanks to his making the Puerto Rican national team; if he’s a sneaky good 2nd day draft pick for us, all the better. He’ll presumably get the Low-A starting SS job and we’ll see how it goes.
#20 2024 7th rounder Robert Cranz. BA also rated Cranz relatively highly, having him come in at #24. Law thinks Cranz is a 4-pitch guy who may start. But, again, as i said in the BA review … if he is a 4-pitch starter quality guy, why didn’t he frigging start in college?? I took a quick glance at OK State’s baseball stats for 2024: they had two guys who were full time Fri/Sat starters, then gave Sunday and midweek starts to a slew of guys while keeping Cranz basically as a stopper, not even the closer (just 2 saves). I mean, yes there’s value to a guy like that, but there’s more value to having a guy who can go 6ip with 1r. So I repeat the same thing I asked in the last post; if Cranz was this good, why the F wasn’t he starting in college? Are Oklahoma State’s baseball staff so stupid as to think that a middle reliever provides more value than a starter? Because more and more, that’s what its looking like; a patent failure in talent evaluation at that program.
Honorable mentions: these clearly aren’t the guys ranked 21-25, but he calls out a few notables. Sam Peterson, Angel Feliz (who i’ve mentioned already and who is in my top 20), Ramirez, Vaquero, and Sir Jamison Jones.
players not on his top 20 of note:
Feliz: who did produce as a big $ IFA and who is at the back-end of my top 20.
Lord, mentioned before as not really being a flashy guy but who produced like crazy in 2024.
No love for Pinckney, even if the Nats have given him a NRI invite two years in a row.
No mention of our 2025 IFA signings, which is common with law; he’s like me and wants to see some production and not just ranking of the signing bonus.
Clemmey climbing up the prospect ranks. Photo via WP
Honestly, just giving a top 10 for a system is almost like taking a remedial course in college just so you can get an A on your transcript. In year’s past McDaniel has gone much deeper (22 prospects in 2024, 28 in 2023, 32 or more in 2022), so maybe we’ll get a more comprehensive list eventually, but for now, here’s his top 10 for the Nats system.
Quick thoughts.
Four of these players are in his top 100, a high mark for any of the overall top 100 lists.
He retains confidence in House, unlike Law, BA, and MLBPipeline.
Interestingly he has Sykora below Susana, also a first in this off-season.
King at #5 is now pretty standard after the top 4 names.
Clemmey and Cavalli remain on his top 200, though one has to think Cavalli’s last year of being a prospect is 2025. He’s either going to produce in the majors or become our most high profile 1st round failure since Romero
This is the highest we’ve seen either Lile or Lomavita.
Wallace at #10 means he’s creeping up, and it’ll be super interesting to see how the organization handles/juggles playing time for both Wallace and House if they’re both in AAA. One has to make way for the other, especially since House is the better bet to be a longer-term 3B in the majors.
Not making the top 10, but who are top 10 calibre on other lists:
(This is not criticism of this top 10, which is pretty solid honestly, but here’s some players who have made top 10 lists on other shops so far this year):
Hassell
Morales
Lara
Dickerson
Chapparo (which was on a fantasy-focused list, so that’s an outlier)
I’m not sure you’re making an argument for any of these five over Lile or Wallace. Ok, maybe if it was ME i’d make an argument over Lile, but i’m low-man on Lile and high-man on Hassell.
One last thing: McDaniel’s callout for prospect ot watch is Dickerson, which we’ve heard a couple times already. Super excited to see what he can do in 2025.
Sykora will be the Nats #1 overall prospect in just a few weeks into the new season. Photo MASN
The first of the five “major” shops/pundits that evaluate and rank prospects (BA, MLBPipeline, Law, Longenhagen, and McDaniel) released their top 30s for systems today…. and boy is the Nats list weird.
I’ll go through the list as always, offering up opinions and observations.
Same top 4 as everyone else, albeit dinging House a little bit. BA notes the same concerns that Law had with House, namely that he had like a 3% walk rate in AAA. I don’t think he’s ready for the Majors and can’t quite believe he’ll win the job out of MLB camp this spring, which would give him time to add some patience to his approach and not start his service time clock so early.
Clemmey up at #6. I might be a little high on Clemmey in comparison to where i’m seeing him in other shops (the 5 rankings I have for him so far this off season go 6-7-6-6-6). Fair enough; he’s a young 19yr old who struck out 123 in 92 low-A innings. That doesn’t suck.
Unlike some ranking shops who have given up hope on Cavalli, BA has him right there at #7. I’ve got him slightly lower based on fear that he’s not ever coming back, but BA has stayed strong.
They’re super high on Lomavita at #8. This is a trend that we’ll see in this BA list the rest of the way; very bullish on brand new kids who have shown almost nothing yet at the pro level.
I remain low-man on Lile, as discussed here multiple times, but BA having him at #10 tracks with most other shops.
Here’s 11-20.
Ok, here’s where this starts to go off the rails. You have Dickerson at #11, who has zero pro at bats, and Hassell #12, who’s ended the season in AAA before he turned 23. Um. What are we doing here? Hassell likely gets MLB at bats THIS YEAR, even if he’s hitting .200 in AAA, because he’s now on the active roster. Dickerson may not even make the Low-A team in April. I get that prospect lists are a balancing act between floor and ceiling … but this one seems crazy to me.
BA remembers how good Bennett was, and kept him exactly at #13, which is where they ranked him in Jan 2024. I wonder how quickly he gets back to High-A. Fairly or not, I’ve got him well lower on my rank, as do most other shops.
The first appearance of 2025 IFA class star Brayan Cortesia on any ranking list, coming in at #17. With all due respect to his $1.9M bonus, this is way too high. Then again, I’m loath to rank a player anywhere in the top 30 these days until they make it to the FCL.
Drew Millas at #18. Why? He’s frigging 27 and he’s a backup catcher as a ceiling and has been for five years. That’s not a prospect anymore; that’s called an org guy.
How the hell is Andry Lara so low? I dunno, maybe i’m the only guy impressed by a guy with an ERA in the 3s as a 21yr old in AA never missing a start? Ok, maybe he’s not a top 5 prospect, but tell me you’d rather have Bennett (6 slots higher) than Lara right now.
Rutledge at #20 ; they still have faith. I don’t. Unless he’s moving to the bullpen, what makes anyone think they’ll see anything different out of the guy in 2025?
21-30 … with obvious caveats about players in this range… but man there’s some crazy names here.
Brzycky at #21: i’m on record saying this is too high for relievers, but whatever.
Morales at #22. Wait, what?? Every other shop so far, including me, has him in the 8-9 range. #22?? In August of 2024, BA had him at #6 in the system, and in their scouting report they explicitly say that he had a thumb injury that hampered his production this year. Bennett misses a y ear to TJ and doesn’t get dinged a single slot, but Morales (who finished strong post injury) gets knocked down nearly 20 spots?? This makes no sense. But don’t worry, this isn’t even the dumbest ranking yet.
At #24 I give you Robert Cranz. In case you don’t recognize the name, he was a 7th round pick in 2024, signed for $100k UNDER slot, was a reliever in college and went straight into Fredericksburg’s bullpen, where he threw a handful of playoff innings. #24 in the system. I didn’t have him in my top 90. In the scouting report it says the Nats may make him a starter … uh, if he could start, why didn’t he do so in college?? This ranking makes zero sense to me.
Meanwhile, one slot later they have Tyler Stuart at #25, who STARTED 25 games last year between AA and AAA. I just don’t get it; you’d rank a college reliever with 6 pro innings higher than a starter who “solved” AA at age 24?
Daniel Hernandez, 2025 IFA signing at #26. Sure.
#27 Nasim Nunez, who had so few PAs last year that he still remains rookie eligible for shops like BA, who ignore service time. I wouldn’t have him this high, but wouldn’t be upset if someone ranked him in the 30s.
Like Stuart, Brad Lord’s rise to AAA seems to be greeted at BA with a sniff. He’s at the back end of their top 30. Perhaps its just me impressed by what Lord has done. I think the knock on Lord is a lack of a 4th pitch. But, he’s a sinker guy, so often guys like this don’t bother learning two fastballs since their value is getting hitters to drive the ball into the ground.
Rounding out the top 30, one last laugher; Brayan Romero. I almost wonder if this ranking is a joke to see if anyone’s paying attention. He posted a 5.52 ERA in Low-A this year as a 22yr old. Ok, so I understand he missed a season and he’s tooled up. But really.
Players they don’t have in their top 30 that I do:
Chapparo: he’ll probably be on the MLB team, whether that counts for anything or not.
Victor Hurtado and Armando Cruz: so we love Cortesia and his big bonus, but one-season-in Hurtado? Or Cruz, who (earned or not) ended the season in High-A?
Darren Baker: I guess MLB-roster backup infielders aren’t as valuable as low-A middle releivers.
Andrew Alvarez. Making AAA just doesn’t mean what it used to.
Jackson Kent: wasn’t he the heralded arm out of the upper rounds of our 2024 draft? MLBPipeline has him in the mid 20s.
House is the highest profile NRI this year.
Photo via primetimesportstalk.com
You know we’re getting close to Spring Training when the annual press release goes out announcing Non-Roster Spring Training Invitees (NRIs). The Nats announced the initial crop this week, immediately forgot at least a couple guys who have ST invites on their transactions page, and probably will add more as they sign up veteran FAs, but for now here’s who we have:
Outfielders: Daylen Lile, Andrew Pinckney, Franchy Cordero (left off press release)
The list includes a huge chunk of our projected AAA roster: i’d say of the 16 NRIs listed here, 14 of them will be in AAA to start the year. In fact, the only ones who won’t be in AAA are Susana and Romero, both probably heading to AA.
NRIs are important. Believe it or not, more than a dozen of 2024’s NRIs eventually played in the majors last year, some with pretty significant roles. So this group collectively will play a big role for the 2025 team. Traditionally 3-4 will make the team out of ST to open the season, while others get called up.
NRIs generally fall into several categories:
Top Prospects getting their first shot with the big boys: this describes at least Susana, Lomavita, House, Morales, Wallace, and Lile. I suppose Pinckney is here as well since he doesn’t qualify for any of the other categories.
Starters to eat split squad innings: I would throw Lord and Stuart in this bucket, along with Adon.
Catchers, because we need people to catch all these ST bullpen sessions: Knizner, Romero, Lindsley
Veteran MLFAs who were promised the NRI as a condition of signing: Helvey, Plington, Cordero
Under-the-Radar relievers who might be useful middle relievers: Acosta, Grissom, Sinclair
Is Adon still a prospect? After four option years, what exactly does the team need to see here? Perhaps they’re planning on converting him to relief, so he’d fall into category #4.
The team has already signed a dozen MLFAs for 2025, but only a couple have NRIs. This in and among itself is a message, but some of the non-NRIs are surprising.
We have a MLFA 28yr old catcher CJ Stubbs on the AAA roster right now: no NRI.
Andrew Alvarez is slated to be in the AAA rotation; no NRI.
We’ve heard people rave about reliever Carlos Romero: no NRI.
The only lefty reliever in AAA Garvin Alston? no NRI.
We’ve signed several aged 28-30 MLFAs who got assigned to AA straight away, an indication they’re just org arms.
We’ve also signed several younger relief arms this month, all in the 23-25 range, newly 6-year FAs after being young IFA signings; these kind of guys may need more seasoning and aren’t candidates to join the bullpen.
A few rule-5 candidates we talked about at length but no NRI include Solesky, De la Rosa, Made, and Shuman, which probably tells us what we need to know about the organization’s thought about these guys.
Who’s likely to make the team out of this list? Probably a bit early to predict, but I only count 9 total relievers on the entire 40-man right now, one of whom is out with TJ. So, there’s opportunities here for especially the arms who can slot into bullpen spots.
We didn’t really talk about the top prospects in camp. Of them, House seems the most likely to win a starting job, based on the lack of a FA 3b signing. We’ve litigated him to death; no he’s not ready, he probably needs to prove himself for a half season in AAA. The rest of the prospects all seem slated for either AA or AAA to get more time in the minors. I’m intrigued by Morales’ potential … but the team has basically bought itself enough 1B/DH cover that it seems unlikely for him to break camp.
Here’s a quick overview of the Nats 2025 IFA class. Yesterday they signed 14 international players (6 from the Dominican Republic, another 8 from Venezuela) and sprinkled out bonuses of at least 300k to seven different guys.
Here’s a few Quick Observations, since there’s obviously limitations as to what we “know” about a bunch of teen-agers in central and south America.
2025 is a lower risk/spread the wealth bonus pool dollar year for the team
The Nats over the last decade have vacillated between high risk and low risk IFA classes, choosing in some years to put all their (bonus money) eggs in one basket and in other years to spread around the wealth.
All in on 1-2 player classes: 2024, 2022, 2021, 2016
Spread the Wealth classes: 2025, 2023, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2015
2025 seems to be a “spread the wealth” year, with seven announced players netting signing bonuses above $300k.
Their large bonus pool has allowed them to spread the wealth AND give out a big bonus
They’ve taken some big swings in terms of dollar amounts since Rizzo arrived: some of their biggest signing bonuses being:
This year’s $1.9M given to Cortesia, Brayan will be the 5th highest bonus since the Juan Soto class in 2015. But, given the four figures above and the relative “success” we’ve seen out of them … it may be considered a bargain.
Would anyone here say that their four big swings listed above have panned out? We’ve litigated Antuna to death, but right now Cruz, Vaquero, and Hurtado are not exactly trending positive. Hurtado hit just .218 in the DSL last year, Vaquero hit .190 in Low-A last year, and Cruz hit .224 mostly in low-A and isn’t even on MLBPipeline’s top 30 prospects for us anymore.
Trivia question: who’s the best Nats-selected/home grown IFA prospect in our system? Probably Andry Lara.
The Class is very Hitter-heavy
Not one of their seven big money guys is a pitcher. Among the 7, we have two Catchers, two SS, one 2B, and two OF. So, it sounds like they’re going to run it back with a lot of the DSL arms there now, most of whom are already 19-20. We’ll have to keep that in mind if we suddenly see a 20yr old starter blowing away 16-17yr olds in the DSL.
The Class is a bit old
There’s just one guy who’s 16 as of the signing date. Most of the class is 17 now and will turn 18 soon after the end of the 2015 season. One guy they signed (RHP Juan Lopez) is already 19; will he even go to the DSL?
They Still have some room in the pool
The known/announced bonus amounts total about $4.9M spread across seven guys. They announced another 7 signees. Usually if a bonus amount is not listed for an IFA, its a standard $10k. If we assume that figure for the remaining seven, then the Nats are leaving about $1.2M on the table right now. Perhaps that’s funds for later IFA signings who might pop up (they have signed IFAs outside of the Jan 15th window in the past), or perhaps the seven remaining all got 6-figure deals that eat into that remainder.
Remember: only half of these guys will ever even get to the US
Here’s a few quick stats on our recent IFA classes. Now, given that this is “early” for the more recent classes, but here’s quick stats on the size of the class and the number of players who moved domestically:
2024: 24 players in class, 0 moved domestically, 5 released
2023: 23/9/5
2022: 20/11/9
2021: 20/10/11
2020: 3/0/3
2019: 21/9/12
So, as you can see, we see roughly half these guys get released right out of the DSL, with the other half making it to the FCL. From there, usually a handful make their way up the chain a little bit, but many of them stall at the Low-A juncture, where they’re forced to go out in the world and travel for the first time.
Our IFA Tracker and the Nats big Board are now updated
Click here for the Nats IFA tracker where I’ve filled in the 2025 class.
Click here for the Nats Big Board, where i’ve put all the 2025 IFA signees into the XST section for now. Odds are they’ll all go to the DSL, but I don’t want to do that assignment until its officially announced.
Lastly, here’s some useful other links for you to peruse, if you’re interested in the IFA 2025 numbers and class:
