Nationals Arm Race

Here’s part 2 of my overview of the 2026 Draft class, those players picked 11th -20th.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need.

• Nationals Draft Tracker: New for this year in the 2026 tab: links to instagram and twitter for each player (which we can use to verify signing if need be), as well as links to their college stats page directly.
• MLB’s Draft Tracker
• Baseball America Transfer portal: though, none of the 11-20th college players seem to be in the portal, likely a good sign for us to get them signed.

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Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick. Note: it’s quite rare for any of these picks to be ranked, so I’ll only include rankings if they exist.

• Baseball America Final pre-draft at 500 on 7/8/26.
• The Athletic/Keith Law final Draft top 100 big board.
• MLBPipeline final Draft Top 250 on 7/5/26
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel Final 250 ranked board
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen final Draft Board with around 150 players ranked.
• Prospects1500 Draft Rank: Top 100 for 2026.
• Baseball prospectus final Draft board 7/8/26 (paywall)

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• 11th Round, 316th overall: Weston Moss, a College Jr. RHP from Texas A&M

Ranks by major shops: BA=358

Moss was TAMU’s Sunday/#3 starter this season, posting a 5.46 ERA over 14 starts and 64.1 innings. 69/21 k/bb in 64IP. He was a reliever his first two years, then didn’t go drafted as a draft-eligible sophomore last year and moved into their rotation. Fringe average velocity, but he’s got a good frame and size (6’4″). Scouts think he can add velocity thanks to his mechanics, and can stay as a starter. He will sign, as most 11th rounders do, and may get a little extra cash to do so over the $150k standard.

Moss joins a solid group of 11th rounders that we’ve picked over the years, players who generally have had solid careers. 2025’s Moroknek has already been promoted this year, 2024’s Beeker was dominant out of the Low-A pen before getting hurt, 2022’s Luke Young is in the AAA bullpen, just promoted. 2010’s JT Arruda was a 6year org guy with a ton of AAA time, 2018’s Bartow made it to AA, etc.

• 12th Round, 346th overall: Matthew Dallas, a College Jr. LHP from Wake Forest

Ranks by major shops: none

Dallas was a major prep prospect; he started the gold medal game in 2022 for USA Baseball 18U. After sitting on the bench for Tennesee most of his freshman year he transferred to Wake Forest, where he was a rotation starter as sophomore. He was slotted into the Sunday starter spot for Wake this year, threw two games, then blew out his elbow in late March, requiring elbow surgery. The timing of the surgery is awful for Dallas: he likely cannot get back in time to even compete in the 2027 season, meaning he’d be looking at adding two full years to his college career. Given that timing, it works to the Nats’ favor; he should sign and get under the care of a pro team immediately, and when he’s healthy he’ll slot right into rookie ball instead. Tough break for him, but he can get some bonus money out of it and get on with his pro career.

• 13th Round, 376th overall: Cody Howard, a College Grad Student RHP from Texas

Ranks by major shops: none

Howard was a little-used RHP reliever by Texas his entire career. He only threw 16IP this season, and had an ERA in the 8s. It’s a weird pick at this juncture, especially for a 5th year senior/grad student. This smells like a pick made because he’s someone’s cousin, or a friend of a scout, and one I wouldn’t expect in the 13th round. I’ll be really curious to see what he signs for.

• 14th Round, 406th overall: Zack Konstantinovsky, a college Junior LHP from Rutgers

Ranks by major shops: none

Konstantinovsky (lord help me if I have to remember how to spell this guy’s name) was in Rutger’s rotation this season, mostly as their Saturday/#2 starter, and threw to a 4-5 record with a 5.48 ERA. 83/21 k/bb in 70ip, though with a .293 BAA. Not bad for the 14th round. He held his own when Rutgers went up against the likes of UCLA, and pitched admirably in the Big10 tourney before Rutgers went 2-and-out. No scouting report available anywhere; seems like a typical mid-major college starter who could have some value in the bullpen.

• 15th Round, 436th overall: Francisco Rivero, a Prep C from Canyon del Oro HS (AZ) (Arizona commit)

Ranks by major shops: none

Rivero is an interesting player. He tried an end-around gambit on the draft, moving from Arizona to Venezeula in order to try to establish IFA eligibility. The Dodgers signed him to a reported $700k bonus last year, but then MLB ruled him ineligible for the international draft, so he returned home to Arizona, re-enrolled in school, and here we are. He’s committed to Uof Arizona, but i’m guessing he wants to play pro, else he wouldn’t have tried the Venezeula gambit in the first place. I’d guess he signs for the $150k figure and comes on board.

• 16th Round, 466th overall: Anthony Murphy, a prep OF from Corona HS (CA) (LSU commit)

Ranks by major shops: BA: 159, MLB: 108, Espn: 146,

So, Murphy is essentially “Luke Williams” insurance; if negotiations with our two top HS picks Williams and/or Harris fall through, we can take that money and throw it at Murphy. He’s a significant prospect; he was the starting CF on the 2026 USA 18U national team, he’s been a starter on the powerhouse Corona HS for four years, and he’s committed to LSU, who have probably the biggest NIL budget in the sport, so you know he’s getting paid. It seems highly unlikely he comes on board. He should have been a 3rd or 4th rounder if he was going to sign; now it seems like LSU gets its leadoff hitter for the next three years as it tries to rebuild after a down 2026.

• 17th Round, 496th overall: Isaiah Galason, a prep SS from Houston County HS (GA) (Georgia Tech)

Ranks by major shops: BA: 345, Espn: 210

Galason is still a solid prep prospect, but not in the same range as Murphy. He’s still “Luke Williams” insurance though, in that he’s a top prep prospect who could be bought out of college for the right price. He’s an undersized SS with 70 speed but who BA’s scouting reports think may be a 2B longer term. Good hit tool, not a lot of power. He’s defense-first but also has a quick twitch bat that drives the ball, if not out of the park. Seems unlikely that he signs.

• 18th Round, 526th overall: Avery Ortiz, a college Jr. SS/2B from Oklahoma State.

Ranks by major shops: none

Ortiz was OSU’s starting SS … for 2 games, when he had a “lower body” injury that kept him out for nearly 2 months this season. He got back for 3 games in April, then out again until mid May. He missed a ton of time in 2025 as well, and likely is set to leave OSU unfulfilled; i can’t imagine going back for another season after he’s struggled to stay on the field all this time. He’s a sub-6-foot infielder, likely a SS/2B combo. No scouting report on him anywhere. I’d guess he’s going to sign, give pros a shot, even though he’s got eligibility left.

• 19th Round, 556th overall: Jack Brooks, a college senior OF (CF) from Oregon.

Ranks by major shops: none

Brooks has no scouting detail anywhere, and his stats don’t offer much promise: he slashed .236/.370/.391 while starting nearly every Oregon game this year in the outfield. He was a SS in high school, and i’d guess his primary skill is plus defense in the outfield. But a .236 hitter as a red-shirt junior seems like this may be a character guy, or a favorite of a local scout.

• 20th Round, 586th overall: Anson Siebert, a J2 RHP reliever (Tennessee commit)

Ranks by major shops: none

Siebert looked like he was the closer for his Juco team at Johnson County in Kansas; they went 67-3 this season. He’s been there two years, and has committed in the transfer portal to go to Tennessee. Does he want to skip a shot at the SEC for pro ball and $150K? I’m guessing this is a tougher sign; he may want a shot at better baseball. Plus, its SEC and Tennessee NIL money; probably not as much as a $150k signing bonus but it won’t be nothing. Tougher sign.

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So, of the 10 guys we drafted here, i’m guessing:

• Six (6) are most likely to sign (Moss, Dallas, Howard, Konstantinovsky, Rivero, Brooks
• Two (2) are maybes (Ortiz, Seibert)
• Two are no-way signing unless negotiations blow up with our two upper-round Prep kids (Murphy, Galason)

Which would leave us likely with a 17-18 player draft class, about what we’d expect.

Here’s a run through the first 10 picks we made this weekend. This post shows the ranks of our players on the various draft boards, plus a summary of any scouting reports/draft analysis I could find from the major pundits/shops.

Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week in as close to real-time as I can given my current employment status :-):

• Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2026 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick. New This year: i’m going to embed direct links to college stat pages for easy reference, since i’m looking them up anyway. For Prep kids, just a link to their Perfect Game profile, which will have video clips.
• MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.

As of this writing, I have updated the Draft Tracker main page for the 2026 class, and have populated the 2026 detailed tab.

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Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick.

• Baseball America Final pre-draft at 500 on 7/8/26.
• The Athletic/Keith Law final Draft top 100 big board.
• MLBPipeline final Draft Top 250 on 7/5/26
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel Final 250 ranked board
• Fangraphs/Longenhagen final Draft Board with around 150 players ranked.
• Prospects1500 Draft Rank: Top 100 for 2026.
• Baseball prospectus final Draft board 7/8/26 (paywall)

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• 1st Round, 11th overall: Chris Hacopian, a College Jr. 2B from Texas A&M

Ranks by major shops: BA=11, Law=34, MLB=14, ESPN=13, Fangraphs=8, Prospects1500=9

See here for the quick post I made specifically about Hacopian and my reaction. I won’t repeat that info here, but will note the interesting discrepancy of Hacopian on the ranking boards presented here. Every shop has him between 8-14 except … our friend Keith Law, ever the contrarian, whose writeup on Hacopian doesn’t really say anything critical of him except to note that he missed a month and hasn’t moved well since he returned. It’s almost like he dumped Hacopian way down when he got hurt, then never revisited him upon his return. I wonder where Law would have him if he had never gotten hurt. I can’t imagine, based on the consensus of his ranking in the class, that this is an under-slot pick by any means, so I’d expect him to sign at or near slot. Maybe he saves a little bit off of the $6.1M figure, money that we can throw at the two prep kids.

• 2nd round #42 overall: Chase Brunson, a College Jr. OF (CF) from Texas Christian

Ranks by major shops: BA=47, Law=24, MLB=50, ESPN=38 Fangraphs=52, Prospects1500=37

Brunson slashed .304/.462/.556 this year, and was a 3-year starter in CF for TCU. He’s got 50s or 55s across the board for every tool, showing promise everywhere but not a stand-out tool in any of the 5 disciplines. Law likes him the most, saying he’s got 20/20 capabilities with even more power there, and even if he can’t stay in CF he’s got the arm strength for RF. By all accounts he was better in 2025 but made adjustments this season, perhaps because he split time in CF with another 1st round talent teammate in Sawyer Strosnider. That caused him to slip from being a late 1st rounder to an early 2nd rounder, and I sense this could be a steal for us. I’d guess this is another slot pick, no real savings here.

• 3rd round #78 overall: Luke Williams, a Prep SS from Franklin Regional HS (near Pittsburgh, PA)

Ranks by major shops: BA=99, Law=outside top 100, MLB=90, ESPN=57, Fangraphs=67, Prospects1500=83

Williams is a Vanderbilt commit (one shop has him going to UVA but everywhere else says Vandy), but a 3rd round selection with a slot value of slightly more than $1M should buy him out of that with enough cash. I’m guessing he goes a bit over-slot, especially since Vandy is a premier college destination for players and they have a ton of money. Both BA and MLB put 70 grades on him for speed and arm strength. He’s a true SS with enough arm to handle CF if he can’t cut it there, and he’s got more than a bit of power with 50s there. The big worry here is an underdeveloped hit tool, but that’s not uncommon for a prep kid.

• 4th round #106 overall: Cooper Harris, a Prep RHP from Flower Mound HS ( a suburb of Dallas, TX)

Ranks by major shops: BA=83, Law=55, MLB=76, ESPN=110, Fangraphs=76, Prospects1500=76

Across the board, we seemed to get real value from this pick. Law likes him a ton, describing him as a 3/4 starter with clean mechanics who a good franchise can easily develop. Is that the Nats? We’ll see. He’s super young (he just turned 18 before the draft), sits 94-96, has a huge spin rate that naturally misses bats. BA gives him a 60 fastball and two 55s on his primary breaking pitches, which sounds like a good sign. I suspect a Texas kid with a commit to Texas will need more than 4th round money, so look for this to be an overslot deal too. As much as prep RHP are risky, this isn’t a 100mph kid with crazy mechanics; this sounds like a player who is getting guys out without the max effort that leads to injury.

• 5th round #138 overall: Daniel Cuvet, a College Jr. 3B from University of Miami

Ranks by major shops: BA=97, Law=87, MLB=120, ESPN=152, Fangraphs=unranked, Prospects1500=unranked

Cuvet, for those who pay attention to such things, was a consensus pre-season All American heading into this season after hitting 24 homers as a freshman and then posting a .372/.450/.708 slash-line as a sophomore. He’s a big dude: 6’3″ 240, with 70 grade power. The “ding” on him was swing and miss, which he seemed to be cleaning up early this season with more walks than Ks (30/33 K/BB in his 41 games. His season was cut short by a stress fracture in his back, something that had been bugging him all year and dampening his stats even before he hung ’em up. He stopped playing by the end of April, and missed the rest of the season. Question is this: is he ready to turn pro, or does he want to go back to school to try to increase his stock? It’s no guarantee; he could get hurt again next year and be looking at a teen-round bonus, or he could get squeezed based on lack of remaining eligibility. He played too much in 2026 to redshirt. So, odds are he’ll sign for something likely around slot and move to a pro organization to rehab and move forward. A healthy Cuvet looks really promising, and reminds one of Yohandy Morales, another slugger from Miami who was a 3B in college but who probably becomes at 1B in the pros. If he returns to his sophomore year form, this could be a steal of a pick in the 5th.

• 6th round #167 overall: Cooper Allen, a College Jr. RHP (starter) from UNC-Wilmington

Ranks by major shops: unranked anywhere.

The first of our underslot picks to pay the prep players, Allen was UNC-Wilmington’s Saturday Starter this season (aka their #2 starter), started 15 games and went 8-4 with a 2.79 ERA for the team. 96/23 K/BB in 87 IP, solid BAA of .210. Seems like a solid college pitcher. His scouting report at BA reports that he sits 90-91, with a mid-80s cutter that he uses to get guys out. He’s undersized (6’1″ 205) and seems to rely less on velocity and more on pitching to get guys out. He’s a college junior with eligibility left, but isn’t a huge prospect, so I’m suspecting he’ll take a haircut on his slot value ($410k) and will turn pro, with little left to prove in college. He is not currently in the transfer portal.

• 7th round #196 overall: Gage Peterson, a College Jr. RHP (starter) from Appalachian State

Ranks by major shops: BA: 344. Nobody else has him ranked.

Peterson went 8-1 and posted a 3.28 ERA in 15 starts and 85 innings, with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate for App State as their Sunday Starter (aka their #3), who he joined for his junior year after two years at a Juco. He sits 90-94 but is a big frame guy who BA thinks can throw much harder. 107/34 K/BB in 89 innings; that’s solid. He’s a big guy (6’5″) who scouts seem to dream on. BA’s scouting report thought he was an 8th-12th rounder; we got him in the 7th, which tells me he’s taking something closer to the $150k range instead of slot of $322k. He is not currently in the transfer portal.

• 8th round #226 overall: Max Hansmann, a College Senior RHP (starter) from Evansville

Ranks by major shops: none.

Our first senior/bonus pool savings pick, Hansmann was the Friday night starter for Evansville. He had solid numbers: 4-3 in 15 s tarts, 3.99 ERA.1.38 WHIP. A K/inning. But we’re talking about Evansville and the Missouri Valley Conference, so impressions should be tempered. I don’t think this is a $1k signing, but I can’t imagine him getting much more than $10k. Boston Smith was a senior draftee who got $50k last year; I’d expect Hansmann to be somewhere in-between. I cannot find any scouting reports on him, even on BA, which kind of tells you what you need to know about the guy. He is not currently in the transfer portal.

• 9th round #256 overall: Cashel Dugger, a College Jr. C from UCLA

Ranks by major shops: BA: #333

Dugger’s rank is entirely driven on his defensive capabilities and skill at handling a pitching staff. He slashed .251/.378/.382 this season, and has never slugged .400 in his career. His BA scouting report basically says he’s set to have a long career as a backup catcher in some organization, which is what it is. I can’t imagine he signs for a ton of money (slot is $216k), and I can’t imagine he agreed to be picked unless he intended to go pro. UCLA as a team kind of peaked this year, sitting at #1 the entire season with a slew of top players, and for Dugger to stick around for a rebuilding season may seem out of the cards. I’ll bet he signs for something slightly below slot but a bit above the $150k standard 11-20th round figure. He is not currently in the transfer portal.

• 10th round #286 overall: Nick Williams, a 5th year Senior OF from Michigan State

Ranks by major shops: none

Williams was Michigan State’s leading hitter this season, slashing .333/.434/.540 with a bit of power and a few SBs. He’s probably limited positionally to a corner due to his size and lack of speed, but could be a nice older presence on a team. Odds are this is a super bonus saving pick, in the $10k or less space. But, he seems like a nice pick here.

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So, that being said, Here’s what I think the team does with its bonus dollars.

• Over Slot picks: Williams, Harris
• Slot picks (or close to it): Hacopian, Brunson, Cuvet
• Under Slot picks: Allen (250k savings), Peterson ($150k savings), Hansmann ($225k savings), Dugger ($75k savings), Williams ($190k savings)

So that would give the team right around $900k to work with before the 5% cushion of an additional $600k. Can $1.5M get both Williams and Harris signed? Maybe: if Hacopian takes a haircut off his $6.1M slot, that extra money could seal the deal. Say Hacopian signed for $5.5m; that’d be an extra $600k to throw at the two HS players and could get it done, bringing both of them into the $1.75m range easily.

I’ll post the 11th->20th round picks analysis/overview in the next post later this week.

So, one of the challenges of having a draft on a Saturday is, it’s awfully hard to find time to do a full comprehensive reaction in a timely manner. So, this will be somewhat brief, but wanted to get a conversation out there real quick.

In this year’s first round, the Nats at #11 take Chris Hacopian, 2B from TAMU. He’s a DC area native; born in Gaithersburg, grew up in Potomac, went to Churchill, and spent his first two college seasons locally at Maryland (click here for his PG profile). He was at UMD with his older brother, and upon his graduation Hacopian entered the transfer portal and went to TAMU. Hacopian was ready for better competition than what UMD gave him; he destroyed big 10 pitching his sophomore year. He wasn’t awful in the Cape Cod league after his sophomore year (he destroyed the NECL after his freshman year).

His junior season at TAMU he slashed .319/.405/.578 with more walks than Ks and some power (11 homers). He played 3B and SS for Maryland, and initially was set to play SS for Tamu as well, but ended up at 2B instead thanks to some limitations in his arm strength and lateral motion. I think he’s profiling as a 2B/LF type in the pros. His leading tool is his Hit tool, where he was one of the best pure hitters in the draft and has a 60 grade from MLBpipeline.com. They give him a current 50 power grade, but something tells me this guy can improve on that as well. I think he’s a pro hitter who won’t chase, hits the ball hard, can power it up when he wants to, and who should move through the ranks quickly. He had some injury issues this year, and by most accounts is a stiff, awkward athleticism guy who may struggle to stick even at 2B.

Hacopian was mocked to the Nats pretty frequently in the end, with the major pundits all over the pick. The way the 1st round worked out, if the Nats were after a college hitter, then they got the one that made the most sense; Burress, Gracia, and Bell all went just before Hacopian, and the next three picks were all HS guys (Gringlinger, Condon, Lombard). They passed on the toolsy Lebron, as well as Ace Reese, who went 24th and was clearly not in the near-top10 level. They also passed on all the prep projects, which is interesting and indicative of what this new front office is thinking after last year’s prep-heavy draft.

My judgement: the way the draft worked out, he was the “right” pick if the target was a College bat, with all the other candidates going before him. He could be a fast mover, maybe in the majors by end of 2027.

Since we’ve been talking about Baseball America ranks this week … and since BA just named the Nats overall system 4th best in the sport, lets see how they’re ranking our prospects in this Mid July update.

Baseball America does the best job of reshuffling prospect lists during the season, and I’m here for it. They did a mid May update that we covered here, and now we get a July 1 update just before the draft (where we’ll presumably add in at least a few more top 30 system prospects).

For now, this is a great way to gauge these players’ 2026 seasons… in some cases. After a point (as we’ll see) BA just kind of gave up and cut-n-pasted from the previous ranking.

Here’s their current top 30, with ranks pulled in from 2 months ago and from January to show evolution in 2026:

7/1/2026	5/18/2026	1/7/2026	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	1	1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	4	7	Seaver	King	SS
3	2	2	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
4	5	Pre-Acqu	Devin	Fitz-Gerald	SS
5	3	21	Ronny	Cruz	SS
6	7	5	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
7	6	4	Luis	Perales	RHP (Starter)
8	8	Pre-Acqu	Gavin	Fein	SS
9	9	19	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP (Starter)
11	20	15	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
12	11	13	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF (Corner)
13	15	11	Landon	Harmon	RHP (Starter)
14	12	6	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
15	10	3	Harry	Ford	C
16	22	16	Yohandy	Morales	3B
17	17	12	Sam	Peterson	OF (CF)
18	28	30+	Cayden	Wallace	2B/3B
19	14	9	Coy	James	SS
19	13	Pre-Acqu	Yeremy	Cabrera	OF (corner)
20	16	8	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
21	18	Pre-Acqu	Alejandro	Rosario	RHP
22	21	25	Riley	Cornelio	RHP (Starter)
23	23	10	Angel	Feliz	SS/3B
24	24	18	Caleb	Lomavita	C
25	25	Pre-Acqu	Samil	Serrano	OF (Corner)
26	26	20	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
27	27	24	Yoel	Tejeda Jr.	RHP (Starter)
28	19	17	Marconi	German	SS
29	30	14	Andrew	Pinckney	OF (Corner)
30	30+	30+	De la Cruz	Marlon	RHP (Starter)

Here’s some thoughts going down the list.

• Having King now ascended to #2 in the system seems appropriate, even with his June swoon. Too bad we have the NL starting All Star short stop blocking his path to the majors. A good problem to have. His dip in performance has slowed the calls for him to get promoted.
• Honestly, I don’t understand why they have Susana so high; he’s got an unspecified injury with no timeframe for return and has been doing “throwing programs” for months. I don’t think anyone thought his injury would cost him an entire season, but it’s leaning that way.
• Ronny Cruz’s trajectory has dipped slightly, but he’s still top 5 after his torrid 2026 start.
• They’re holding firm on Gavin Fein, and I hope he pays off. Moving him off SS lowers his value, and i’m surprised he’s still in the top 10.
• Based on what you’ve seen in 2026, would you have Luis Perales at #7? I wouldn’t. Raise your hand if you want Jake Bennett back.
• I like the recognition that Jackson Kent is now nearly a top 10 prospect, flourishing in AAA.
• Clemmey taking a dive, as we’ve discussed a ton, going from #6 in January to #14 now. Honestly, that seems fair given what he’s struggled to do since his AA promotion.
• What the heck is going on with Harry Ford? #3 in January, now #15.
• Great to see Cayden Wallace showing up; he was just promoted to AAA where, I guess, he’ll play short stop? I mean, House is the 3B, Glasser has played the entire season at 2B. Maybe Glasser (listed as a SS) will move over and Wallace plays 2B. I can’t imagine the team will sit one of them on the regular so that Lipscomb (the only true SS on the AAA roster) can play at this point.
• Both Coy James and Luke Dickerson were top 10, now nearly out of the top 20. Both are young, and have some time, but not a good pro career start really for either.
• Lomavita’s excellent June apparently too late for him to get any change from the last ranking; he sits at #24 still.
• Marlon De La Cruz gets the last spot, pushing out Davian Garcia (the only player ranked 6 weeks ago not listed). Fun fact; this is the first time he’s been ranked by any shop for this team, ever. He’s a 2024 IFA who signed for so little that they didn’t bother to register it, and now he’s in the LowA rotation.

Here’s a monthly check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system. Stats are for just June 2026 unless otherwise noted.

(Note: I wrote this before the July 4th holiday, with its slew of moves/DFAs/promotions, so I know i’m missing some details).

I’ll be using my own personal top 20 to drive the rankings, the ones I posted right after the season started and which are a bit outdated. If I was to re-rank the top 10 right now versus what’s below, i’d probably go Willits, King, Fitz-Gerald, Sykora, Susana, Cruz, Kent, Petry, Sime, and then maybe a wild card like Morales or Lomavita.

All the stats links I use are at my Nats Links page, which I visit every day for various reasons. I won’t repeat all the stats links and transactions pages and what not; just go to the Links page.

1. Eli Willits SS, High-A: Slashed .246/.418/.590 for an OPS north of 1.000 and the continued streaking up prospect boards (he’s now #3 on MLBPipeline’s overall minor league list). Reminder: he’s 18, doesn’t turn 19 until December. Also named to the Futures game roster along with Sime. Temperature: red hot, POTY candidate, another promotion candidate.
2. Henry Ford, C AAA: had a .244/.426/.415 split for the month, good for a halfway decent looking OPS figure, thanks to a slew of walks bolstering the OBP. Still not impressing, which is why his prospect stock is falling fast. He’s now at least down to 7th or 8th in the system. Temperature: still cool.
3. Jarlin Susana, RHP (starter) AA: On the 60-day DL to open the season, and is still there. Per the Nats injury report, the last update was 6/12 reporting that he was throwing off a mound. What gives here? It took him 5 weeks to go from throwing on flat ground to the mound. Did the team hide the severity of his injury? Temperature: still on ice.
4. Travis Sykora: RHP (starter) AA: out for the season, the injury report lists his return as 2027. Temperature: on ice.
5. Gavin Fien SS/3B, Low-A: Finally had a good month at the plate, .294/.380/.529. He’s still entirely playing OF, despite all the middle infielder promotions out of low-A, which lowers his value a little bit. He’s splitting time between CF and RF. Temperature: warming up.
6. Alex Clemmey, LHP (Starter) AA: Clemmey had another mediocre month; 5.53 ERA, too many hits, too many walks. I’m not sure what to do here; is it possible he’s hit a ceiling? Temperature: pretty cold.
7. Seaver King, SS AAA: After a torrid start to the season, King cooled this month, slashing just .256/.323/.389. he’s playing a lot of 2B, presumably in case the Nats want a stretch bat to take over. But, unless he continues to hit, he’s not coming up anytime soon. Temperature: cooled for a bit.
8. Luis Perales, RHP (starter) AAA: Perales reverted to earlier bad form, and continues to remind us that the Bennet-for-Perales trade sucked. 20/11 k/bb in 21 innings and a 6.53 ERA. Temperature: cold.
9. Devin Fitz-Gerald, 2B/SS, AA: AA has been a wake-up call for Fitz-Gerlad; he hit just .132 this month. Temperature: Hot to get to AA, now cold.
10. Landon Harmon, RHP (starter): Low-A: He remains on the 7-day DL in Low-A with an oblique strain that continues to be described as “not serious.” He hasn’t thrown since April 24th, meaning he’s now working on 9 weeks out of action. Temperature: On Ice, starting to be concerning.
11. Ronny Cruz: SS High-A. After a tough first month, he’s picking it up. 263/.314/.400. Not awesome, but not terrible. Temperature: luke warm?
12. Luke Dickerson, SS/CF Low-A: .253/.451/.413. Dickerson took a TON of walks this month, ironic since our discussions on this platform included criticism of the amount of Ks he was taking. Well, this month he still struckout a lot, but only hit one out to go with 27 BBs in 22 games. Interesting. At least he’s back on the dirt, playing mostly middle infield now, moving around all three skill positions. Temperature: meh. Not sure what to think here.
13. Ethan Petry, 1B AA: his promotion to AA has not gone well: he hit just .172 in June Temperature: Hot to get to AA, now cold.
14. Coy James, SS/3B, Low-A: No real change here; .243/.360/.365 for the month. Not really living up to the prospect hype so far. Temperature: still cold.
15. Angel Felix, SS High-A: Meh slash line of .265/.315/.422 . Showed a little bit of pop. May be impacted by being moved of SS thanks to Willits. Temperature: cool.
16. Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (starter) High-A: He cleaned up this month: 1.38 ERA and 33/11 K/BB in 22 ip and probably merited a promotion; perhaps another month of work and he’ll be up.  Temperature: hot.
17. Jackson Kent, LHP (Starter) AAA: . Jackson Kent’s first full month in AAA went swimmingly: 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA and solid K/BB numbers (28/7 in 24ip). Is it possible that Kent will be the first 2024 class draftee to get to the majors? Temperature: Pretty warm
18. Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (starter): High-A: Sime’s first month in High-A was … interesting. 5 starts, 17ip, 2.60 ERA and 27ks in 17ip, so he still is throwing it by people. But, he also has 16 walks in those 17ip, which has bloated his Whip a bit to 1.50. Named to the Futures game roster. Temperature: hot.
19. Davian Garcia, RHP (starter) AA; On the full-season DL, hopefully to return in 2027. Temperature: on ice.
20. Yeremy Cabrera CF High-A: has struggled upon his promotion; hit just .205 this month. Temperature: hot to get to High-A, now cold.

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Notables #20 and above by level:

in AAA:

• #27 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B in AAA finally had a bad month: .230/.287/.437.
• #31 Phillip Glasser 2B in AAA had a great month: slashing .438/.491/.500. He’s back on track. .
• #33 Albimec Ortiz 1B/DH in AAA is hitting just .225.
• Also, not for nothing: 40-man members Hassell (.203) and especially Weimer (hitting just .125) are not doing themselves any favors.

In AA:

• #21 Sam Peterson is struggling, hitting just .221 this month.
• #26 Caleb Lomavita had a monster June; 8 homers powering his slash line to .286/.352/.762. Too bad Ford blocks his path to AAA.
• #30 Cayden Wallace is producing at a very high clip once again: .329/.346/.633. He can play 2B, 3B, and has even been playing a bunch of SS this season.
• #60 TJ White, newly promoted to AA this month, hit just .154 for the Senators in June.

In High-A:

• #40 Kevin Bazzell continued to hit this month, slashing .300//.345/.440. Not bad for a catcher, but see above; Lomavita in AA is crushing, and Ford in AAA can’t be sat. So there’s a log jam.
• #41 Cristian Vaquero remains on the DL, but has started rehab. Somehow he’s been on the DL since early May and I never saw it; he’s been on the “active” roster on the Big Board for weeks.
• #61 Randal Diaz played well this month: .304/.420/.411, somehow getting playing time in a crowded middle infield in Wilmington.
• Elijah Green cut down on his K’s this month once again, down to 34 for t he month (in 21 games). His astounding figures for the season? 67 games, 243 ABs, and 127 Ks. He’s striking out at a 52% clip for the season. I’ve just never seen anything like it before.
• Unranked but recently promoted Jacob Walsh hit just .206 for the month.
• Unranked but recently promoted Jack Moroknek hit just .125 upon his promotion.

In Low-A:

• #38 Sir Jamison Jones hit just .125 this month.
• #39 Rafael Ramirez Jr took a step back slashing .226/.368/.371.
• #51 Dashyll Tejeda, newly promoted, held his own his first month in full season ball: .246/.364/.393
• #94 Manual Cabrera got promoted up from FCL and has been hitting well: .288/.377/.458. He’s playing mostly 3B
• Unranked Hunter Hines got demoted, then destroyed Low-A with an OPS > 1.000. may want to put him back up.
• Unranked Jordan Williams, a 26yr old NDFA signed earlier this year, has been cruising: .349/.472/.512. Williams is an interesting one: he didn’t finish his NCAA eligibility until he was 25.
  

In FCL, here’s hitting stats for some of our notable hitting prospects recently moved up from the DSL.

• #23 Marconi German; .238/.432/.413 in june.
• #36 Brayan Cortesia: .288/.447/.288. that’s not a lot of power.
• #42 Daniel Hernandez: .222/.323/.259. Not good.
• #46 Browm Martinez: .259/.474/.389. Nots of walks.
• #47 Victor Hurtado struggled in june: .237/.387/.271
  

In DSL, here’s hitting stats for the four marquee 2026 IFA signings:

• Isaias Suarez OF (corner): .207/.452/.207 in 11 games
• Angel Ramirez OF (corner): 211/.333/.649 in 38Abs so far.
• Samil Serrano OF (cf): 310/.397/.517 in 58ABs so far.
• Juan Duran 1B: 357/.438/.956

In the DSL, the remaining big money 2025IFA signings who are still there:

• Ronny Bello SS: .294/.387/.412; big improvement over last year.
• Esnaider Vargas: Of/DH: .278/.371/.519: providing some more pop this year for sure.
• Jonierbis Garces: OF (corner): hitting just .184

Each year we have basically three categories of mock drafts and Draft Board Ranks:

• The way too early drafts, which are done any time in 2025 for the 2026 draft all the way to those done within the first couple of months of the spring season. I reviewed the Phase 1 version of mocks about a month ago.
• The “starting to get down to business” mock drafts, which start to really look at those who are rising and falling due to 2026 performance, those who have had injury issues, plus those who have clarified their “going to school” status.
• The “week leading up to the draft” Mocks where the major pundits are working the phones to get for-real intel into who the teams are looking at, and sometimes we get mocks the day of that nearly nail the top 10.

We’re now well into Phase 2; that is this analysis. In fact, there’s been so many i’m publishing now and may do another version of this as more mocks come in the rest of the month.

Macro Draft Class statements: the pundits are reporting:

• The top of the draft is weaker than in year’s past
• Class Strengths include College bats, Prep Pitching for depth.
• Weaknesses seem to be prep bats after the top 3-4 names, college arms this year for sure.

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So, let’s get to it. For each Mock i’ll list the top 5 names plus who they project to the Nats at #11 with some commentary. I’ll spell out player names the first time they’re used, then just use last names going forward. Also, I’m adding more commentary to each mock in this section, and will identify names who the Nats would purposely be skipping in each mock who I think they’d give serious thought to taking.

• Keith Law Mock 1.0 5/7/26: Grady Emerson (prep SS, Texas HS), Roch Cholowsky (SS UCLA), Vahn Lackey (C Georgia Tech), Jackson Flora (RHP UC Santa Barbara), Eric Booth Jr (prep OF, Miss HS). Nats at #11 take Chris Hacopian, SS/3B from Texas A&M (and thus leaving Peterson, Bell, and Lebron on the table). Law is the first mock drafter who does NOT have Cholowsky going 1-1 in this cycle, and freely admits that the team drafting 1st overall (the White Sox) may be sending smoke signals to the Cholowsky camp to tamper down bonus demands. I think they’d be fools not to take the UCLA shortstop, who entered the season the consensus 1-1 candidate and has done absolutely nothing but produce and keep that reputation. Meanwhile, as I’ve mentioned in prior posts there’s a big “gap” in prep prospects right in the section where the Nats draft, which really makes it seem like we’ll be drafting a college bat.
• Jim Callis MLBpipeline First Officiail Mock 5/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Jacob Lombard (prep SS , Florida HS), Flora. Nats at #11 take Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS. This would be a shock overdraft, as he’s ranked well outside the 1st round on draft boards right now. In this mock, picking Gridlinger would leave in particular Curiel on the table, but also the likes of Hacopian, Flukey, Bell, etc. Grindlinger reclassified from 2027, so he’d be super young like Willits, but may also go under-slot which would allow for more over-slot prep draftees in rounds 2-5.
• Baseball America Mock Draft 3.0 5/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 take Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech. Burress has been in the top 10 of this draft since the beginning of the cycle, and BA has mocked Burress to the Nats now a couple of times with these exercises. In this mock, the Nats would be passing on the likes of Bell, Curiel, Gridlinger, Lebron, etc. But, BA has some of these players now in the 20s, implying that a 6.1M slot value would sign for something 33% less 10 picks later. Players like Peterson and Reese, who have been mocked to the Nats earlier in this cycle, are now nearly out of the 1st round.
• Keith Law Draft Ranks 5/14/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Flora, Bell, Emerson. As Law notes immediately in the write-up, this is a rank, not a mock. He’s got Bell in particular in the top 4, but i’ve seen mocks with Bell going in the 20s. That’d be such an amazing steal for that team if indeed Bell is this good. He also ranks Lombard (regularly in the top 5 on these mocks) way way down at #17, so I can imagine what he thinks of a team popping him that early. Some of the names associated with the Nats at #11 are deep into the 20s on this list (Hacopian, Gracia), while others are much higher (Burress in particular).
• Espn/Kiley McDaniel Mock Draft 1.0 5/14/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 take Grindlinger, same as the MLBpipeline mock above. McDaniel reports that the consensus decision at 1-1 is now nearly a 50/50 proposition with Emerson rising fast. Grindlinger is reported as a two-way player, better on the hit side but still promising on the arm side (as a pitcher-only prospect he’s a comp-to-early 2nd rounder). In this scenario, the Nats would be passing on Peterson, Curiel, Lebron.
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel top 150 Draft Ranks 5/17/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. #11 is Grindlinger as it turns out. McDaniel’s draft board isn’t entirely in sync with his recent mock draft, showing Lombard out of the top 5, which is consistent with many of the draft rankings despite is frequent placement in the top 5. His rank exposes one of the big disagreements between pundits: where to rank Tyler Bell? McDaniel ranks him #29 while Law ranks him #4. That’s a really, really wide gap.
• Jonathan Mayo/MLBpipeline 5/21/26 Mock: Cholowsky, Emerson, Flora, Lombard, Lackey. #11 Nats take Justin Lebron, SS from Alabama. Lebron has been “polarizing” this season b/c he started the mock draft season as an easy top 5 pick but has struggled this season, badly. As of the beginning of SEC play he’s only slashing .266/.384/.522. I say “only” since he’s got 14 homers … and 38/39 SBs. He wasn’t on a bunch of pre-season AA lists for nothing. Question is: what’s his true hit tool? .266 this year or his .314 last year? In this scenario Nats would leave players like Peterson, Curiel, Gracia, Gridlinger, and Bell on the board, all names we’ve seen them associated with in prior mocks. This really highlights to me just how wide open this area of the draft is this year.
• Dan Zielinski III from Baseball Prospect Journal released his Mock 1.0 on 5/23/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Basically the same top 5 as most everyone else at this point. He’s got Nats at #11 on Gridlinger, though he’s have us skip over in particular Cameron Flukey, the Coastal Carolina #1 starter who is probably the 2nd best arm on the board. I know you don’t draft for Need … but do we “need” yet another prep SS? Maybe its time to infuse more pitching into the system, since every one of our prospect stars this season seems to be a hitter.
• Baseball America Top 500 Draft Board 5/27/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard. #11 ranked is divisive Kentucky SS Tyler Bell. Bell projects as a well rounded SS who can play all over the dirt in a pinch, with solid marks for all five tools but no 60s or 70s anywhere. He was a 2nd rounder out of HS, went to college, and now projects as a mid 1st rounder. He hurt his shoulder in the first week of the season and played through it a bit, which has hampered his draft stock/stats, something to think about from a value perspective. Bell at #11 could be a solid pick.
• Baseball Prospectus Draft board 5/28/26: entirely behind a paywall. If anyone has an account let me know.
• ESPN/Kiley McDaniel Mock 2.0 5/29/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Same 5 as the last few mocks, in slightly different order. He puts the Nats on Gridlinger, like a few others, saying “Grindlinger has been tied to this spot for a while.” In this scenario Burress is long gone, but the Nats take the prep SS over the likes of Hacopian, Bell, Flukey, Lebron.
• MLBPipeline Top 200 Draft Prospects 5/29/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. #11 ranked player is Coastal Carolina’s ace Cameron Flukey, though as we know player ranks tend to fluctuate with day in and day out performance. If Flukey dominates in the CWS regional (CCU is an underdog in their regional) we could see him pop up a bit.
• Jonathan Mayo Industry survey 6/1/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora again. We’re definitely starting to see some consistency here. This wasn’t a ranking, but more of a survey.
• D1Baseball Top 250 draft board 6/4/26: Lackey, Cholowsky, Flora, Hacopian, Bell. D1’s list is only D1 players, no Prep players, and is weird in that they have Lackey over Cholowsky, basically the only service that does so. I also think they have some players too high/too low in comparison to others.
• Post-D1 regional MLBPipeline mock 6/5/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Same top 5 as everyone. He’s got Nats on Gridlinger once again, but says that if Burress or Hacopian are available they could go here. In this scenario, the Nats leave Flukey, Curiel, Reese, Bell, and Lebron on the table.
• Baseball America published a Top 500 Prep-only list 6/5/26: that’s just a crazy amount of analysis, even given the modern day of travel teams and showcases for these kids. 500 prep kids ranked. The top 5 prep kids go as expected: Emerson, Lombard, Booth, Rojas, and Nats favorite Grindlinger. There’s a smattering of Virginia-based kids, not a ton as this seems to be a pretty down year for prep kids in the state.
• Baseball America’s Mock 4.0 6/8/26: Cholowosky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Again, same top 5 names. Nats at #11 once again projected to Grindlinger. In this mock, they’d leave Lebron, Reese, Hacopian on the list. I wonder if Hacopian would tempt them.

Conclusion: most of these mocks have the same 4-5 names within the top 5 picks.

• Cholowsky: has been 1-1 on practically every mock draft
• Emerson: nearly always in the top 2
• Lackey: seems to be consistently the next player taken after Cholowsky/Emerson are done.
• Lombard and Flora are the two names that most frequently round out the top 5, albeit sometimes with interlopers.

Names most frequently mocked to Nats at this point: Grindlinger, Hacopian, Burress, though in later mocks Burress is mostly gone by the time Nats pick at #11.

Before we get too far away from June 1st … Here’s a monthly check in on our 20 prospects plus other notables in the system. Stats are for just May 2026 unless otherwise noted.

I’ll be using my own personal top 20 to drive the rankings, the ones I posted right after the season started so they don’t take into account fast starts from players like Fitz-Gerald or Cruz.

All the stats links I use are at my Nats Links page, which I visit every day for various reasons. I won’t repeat all the stats links and transactions pages and what not; just go to the Links page.

• #1. Eli Willits SS, Low-A: Slashed .342/.457/.526 for May, with 2 homers, 10sb. Yeah, that’ll do. That’s not bad for a kid who should be getting measured for his HS cap and gown right now. This team is not shy about promoting players; how long does he stay in Low-A? Temperature: red hot, imminent promotion candidate.
• #2. Henry Ford, C AAA: He is still not hitting. He was off in April, and May wasn’t much better. .234/.372/.344. that’s not a ton of power, even for a catcher. Luckily Kiebert Ruiz has “remembered” how to hit at the MLB level so there’s not a ton of pressure. One has to wonder what the heck is going on here? We’re talking a significant prospect, well regarded across the industry. I wonder if he’s got a knock we don’t know about. Temperature: pretty cold
• #3: Jarlin Susana, RHP (starter) AA: On the 60-day DL to open the season, and is still there. Per the Nats injury report, the last update was 5/5 a month ago and he was “continuing his throwing progression” in Palm Beach. His return has now just been listed as “2026,” which could mean tomorrow or September. I don’t think anyone though this was a season long injury, and the loss of both Susana and Sykora for an entire season really is putting this franchise back. Temperature: on ice.
• #4 Travis Sykora: RHP (starter) AA: likely out for the season, the injury report lists his return as 2027. Temperature: on ice.
• #5 Gavin Fien SS/3B, Low-A: he made it back off the DL, still not entirely sure what the injury was, but he’s been really struggling. .180/.305/.280 for May. I wonder if he came back too soon from injury. Temperature: ice cold.
• #6 Alex Clemmey, LHP (Starter) AA: Clemmey continues to struggle in AA; 5.26 ERA this month, 15 walks in 22 innings. I’m not sure what to do here; he has nothing to prove in High-A; he’s just got to ride it out here. Temperature: pretty cold.
• #7 Seaver King, SS AAA: King continued his torrid start to the season, slashing .415/.475/.604 the first half of the month in AA before forcing the promotion. So far in AAA? .325/.378/.525. He also played at 2B recently (not that a SS can’t seamlessly move to 2B anyway, but still a notable signal) possibly indicating the team is thinking of bringing him up to play there instead of the Mendoza-line hitting Nunez.. Temperature: red hot; player of the year candidate.
• #8 Luis Perales, RHP (starter) AAA: Perales, who is the sole remaining 40-man arm from opening day who hasn’t pitched in the majors, was stellar this month: 1.53 ERA in 4 games. but, he’s still not pitching that many innings: 17ip in 4appearances. Also, if he throws 101, where are the Ks?? 11 Ks in 17 ip? Nonetheless, its improvement. Still, the Nats are “losing” this trade right now. Temperature: warming up nicely.
• #9 Devin Fitz-Gerald, 2B/SS, High-A: he’s blowing up High-A; .287/.368/.634 for the month of May with 9 homers. He has a higher OPS than Petry. He’s playing about 50% at 2B, 25% at SS, and 25% at 3B. He’s a little undersized so it seems like 2B may be his destination, but with this kind of power I’ll take it. Temperature: Red Hot, POTY candidate.
• #10 Landon Harmon, RHP (starter): Low-A: He hasn’t pitched since April 24th, hit the 7-day DL in early May and has sat there. It’s reportedly an oblique injury and is “not serious” but its been a while. At least its not a shoulder/elbow. Temperature: On Ice
• #11 Ronny Cruz: SS High-A, Cruz blasted his way to High-A early … and has seen the league catch up to him in a big way. May slash line: .141/.200/.196. Was it too much, too soon? Could be. Temperature: Ice cold
• #12 Luke Dickerson, SS/CF Low-A: came back to earth this month after a nice April. Slashed: .185/.368/.310. Lots of walks and strikeouts, not much else. If you’re going to whiff at this rate, you need to hit a ton of bombs. Temperature: pretty cold.
• #13: Ethan Petry, 1B High-A: Petry spent another month in High-A crushing the ball: .288/.355/.606. I just have to ask: why is he still in High-A? The guy playing 1B for Harrisburg (Sam Brown) is hitting .228 with almost no power, so it’s not like he’s blocked. This is a 2nd rounder from a major college program; it shouldn’t be long before he’s up. Temperature: Red hot still.
• #14: Coy James, SS/3B, Low-A: Improved slightly at the plate, still not playing how we want. .229/.339/.396for the month. He has shown his fielding versatility though, hitting 4 positions so far this year (2B,SS,3B,LF). Temperature: still cold.
• #15: Angel Felix, SS High-A: May numbers improved slightly over April: .250/.337/.375. However the new knock is his defense: he’s made 9 errors in his 18 games played at 3B so far this season. That’s not good. Temperature: cool.
• #16: Yoel Tejeda Jr. RHP (starter) High-A: He was adequate in May with a pedestrian 4.34 ERA and more Ks than IP. But nothing special. Temperature: luke warm.
• #17: Jackson Kent, LHP (Starter) AAA: Kent blitzed through his first 3 AA starts in May, and earned a promotion to AAA. His first two AAA starts were a struggle, but his achieving AAA as a 2024 draftee is impressive. Temperature: Hot to earn the promotion.
• #18: Miguel Sime Jr. RHP (starter): High-A: Sime had an ugly era/whip in Low-A for the month but continued to strike out 2 guys an inning, so the team promoted him. As discussed extensively in the comments, If you can just throw it past everyone at the level you’re never going to develop alternate pitches. Temperature: hot.
• #19: Davian Garcia, RHP (starter) AA; Garcia was placed directly on the “Full Season” injured list on 5/29, with no passing through either the 7-day or 60-day. That’s not good, and indicates a serious arm injury. No word anywhere on what happened to him, even with AI scouring the internet for clues. Temperature: on ice.
• #20: Yeremy Cabrera CF High-A: Started May in Low-A with this ridiculous line: .483/.564/.897 and earned a promotion. In High-A so far? Not as great: 236/.323/.309. Hopefully he adjusts to th e level and returns to form. Temperature: hot.

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Notables #20 and above by level:

in AAA:

• #27 Yohandy Morales 1B/3B continues to destroy AAA pitching: May slashline: .361/.431/.691. We’ve talked about him extensively. My take is simple: the “scouting reports” we’re getting on him make no sense, and you can’t leave someone in AAA who’s OPS is north of 1,100 forever.
• #33 Albimec Ortiz 1B/DH in AAA had an even bigger may OPS figure than Morales. We’ve struggled to score runs for years, now suddenly a bunch of randoms in the majors are leading the league in runs scored while guys are finally hitting in AAA. A weird season.

In AA:

• #21 Sam Peterson is putting it together; in May: .297/.390/.554.
• #30 Cayden Wallace continues to produce. May: .275/.333/.505
  
  

In High-A:

• #40 Kevin Bazzell blasted the ball this month: .378/.472/.511 with 5 homers in 14 games played.
• Elijah Green cut down on his K’s this month! Just 41 Ks in 25 games. (In april it was 52 Ks in 21 games).

In Low-A:

• #39 Rafael Ramirez Jr had a nice month. .323/.500/.508. I’ll take that from a SS.
• Unranked Jack Moroknek put up another good month; .293/.397/.586. Second straight month mentioning him.
  

In FCL:

• #47 Victor Hurtado, known more for his bonus figure than his production, had a nice month. .293/.397/
  .586
  
  

Here’s the May 2026 check-in on rotations. In the interest of time, which I’m pressed for this month badly, I’ll skip the bullpen comments and just focus on starters this post.

Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, etc.

Important Pitching stats links for this analysis (I like the Fangraphs stats when looking up Fip, Babip, etc).

• Big Board, Draft Tracker, and IFA Tracker
• Nats MLB stats: at baseball-reference.com, Nats MLB stats at fangraphs.com
• AAA Rochester stats at milb.com. AAA Rochester Stats at fangraphs.com
• AA Harrisburg stats at milb.com, AA Harrisburg Stats at fangraphs.com
• High-A Wilmington stats at milb.com, High-A Wilmington Stats at fangraphs.com
• Low-A Fredericksburg Stats at milb.com, Low-A Fredericksburg stats at fangraphs.com
• FCL Nationals Stats at milb.com
• DSL Nationals Pitching Stats at milb.com

All Stats quoted are as of 5/31/26’s games.

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We’ll start with the Majors.

• Opening Day 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
• End of April 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (with Poulin opening sometimes), Littell, Irvin
• End of May 2026: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas (still with openers), Littell (also with openers), Alvarez.

Changes since end of last Month: Irvin suffered a right shoulder strain while pitching his best game of the season (of course he did), and hit the DL. Though reported as mild, per the injury report he’s yet to resume any throwing and is just doing strength and conditioning stuff. Alvarez took his spot (as opposed to other options like Parker or Cornelio or Lord) and has continued to be decent.

Rotation Observations: Griffen’s numbers came back to earth thanks to one horrid outing. He’s still got decent looking ERA and WHIP, but a troubling 4.88 FIP that makes me wonder if we’re not going to see more regression to the mean. Cavalli really bore down in May, cutting his walk rate in half and thus his WHIP from 1.6 to 1.1. Love it. Despite Irvin’s excellent start where he got hurt, he had a rough month. Mikolas was actually decent in May; a 3.52 ERA in his five “starts.” Even though he got hit around in his first June appearance. Lastly Littell was actually our best pitcher in May; pitching to a 2.35 ERA in 6 games/30IP. Amazing given what he did in April.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April 2026: Mikolas
• May 2026: Probably Irvin before he got hurt. Now it’s likely Alvarez who makes way unless he starts throwing nothing but shutout innings. Mikolas has stayed his execution.

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AAA Rochester

• Opening Day 2026: Alvarez, Parker, Perales, Lara, Cornelio
• End of April 2026: Alvarez, Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain (with Ogasawara and Penrod spot starts)
• End of May 2026: Perales, Lara, Cornelio, Champlain, Kent

Changes since end of last Month: Alvarez called up to cover for Irvin. That spot was filled by the promotion of Jackson Kent. Just a comment here: Kent was a 2024 4th rounder who signed for under slot and who has almost no prospect buzz; now he’s in AAA.

Rotation Observations: Perales, who is the sole remaining 40-man arm from opening day who hasn’t pitched in the majors, was stellar this month: 1.53 ERA in 4 games. He’s still not pitching that many innings: 17ip in 4appearances. Also, if he throws 101, where are the Ks?? 11 Ks in 17 ip? Weird. Champlain isn’t getting a ton of K/9 but he is effective: 3.45 ERA for the month for the late spring training MLFA signing. Cornelio & Alvarez’s numbers weren’t great this month, but they’ve also been on the commuter shuttle back and forth, a lot. Lastly we have Lara, who was outrighted and was out of the rotation for a while, and now we remember why. 7.85 ERA for the month in 6 starts and it seems like he should go back to the bullpen.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Alvarez and Cornelio. Verdict: both have been promoted, Alvarez is staying there.
• May: Perales and his sub 2.00 ERA could play in the majors.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: none really, Champlain had the least investment
• May: Lara clearly.

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AA Harrisburg

• Opening Day 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawawara, Swan
• Reminder of the AA Disabled List: Sykora, Susana, Rosario, Stuart, Swan, now Garcia
• End of April 2026: Clemmey, Garcia, Luckham, Ogasawara, Kent
• End of May 2026: Clemmey, Luckham, Ogasawara, Lyon, Randall (spot starts from Van Scoyoc)

Changes since end of last Month: Kent got promoted, replaced by newly promoted Lyon. Then, Garcia hit the DL and was replaced by newly promoted Randall.

Rotation Observations: Ogasawara had another solid month with a 2.31 era, and it’s kind of dumb why the team is keeping a 28yr old veteran IFA in AA. Clemmey continues to struggle in AA; 5.26 ERA this month, 15 walks in 22 innings. I’m not sure what to do here; he has nothing to prove in High-A; he’s just got to ride it out here. Luckham continues to confound how he retains his rotation job; 6.31 ERA for the month. Lyon has struggled in his two AA starts since promotion, while Randall’s AA debut was stellar (5ip 2H 0 runs). Lastly, Long Man/spot starter Van Scoyo had a solid month: 23/2 K/BB in 23IP, a 3.80 ERA.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Ogasawara, then Kent. Kent was promoted over Ogasawara
• May: clearly Ogasawara.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Luckham.
• May: still Luckham.

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High-A Wilmington

• Opening Day 2026: Bruni (Sullivan), Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco
• End of April 2026: Maddox, Randall, Tejeda, Polanco, Lyon
• End of May 2026: Maddox, Tejeda, Polanco, Bruni, Meckley

Changes since end of last Month: Randall and Lyon were promoted, replaced by LR/SS Bruni and newly promoted Meckley

Rotation Observations: It was mostly a rough month for the starters in Wilmington. Lyon had the best stats and got promoted for it, but the rest? phew. Tejeda was the best of the rest with a pedestrian 4.34 ERA and more Ks than IP. Maddox and Meckley both had ERAs right around 5. Bruni and Polanco? They’re in the 7s. It’s no wonder the system promoted Miguel Sime Jr just after the month ended.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Randall: he did indeed get promoted
• May: None. Tejeda if I had to name one.

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Polanco
• May: still Polanco but likely Bruni makes way for Sime.

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Low-A Fredericksburg

Low-A spent most of the first 6 weeks of the season doing tandem starts, but as players hit the DL or hit ineffectiveness, we’ve seen the rotation really settle into something more conventional.

• Opening Day 2026: Portorreal, Hughes/Meckley, Sime/Lyon, Harmon/Beck, Fischer/Conradt
• End of April 2026: Portorreal, Meckley/Hughes, Sime/Johnson, Harmon/Conradt, Fischer/Sullivan
• End of May 2026: Portorreal, Sime, Johnson, Fischer, and Tepper doing rehab the whole month

Changes since end of last Month: Meckley promoted, Hughes struggled so they’re both out from April. The Sime/Johnson tandem was the split up. Harmon hit the 7-day DL with a non-serious Oblique injury, but Conradt was put on the full-season DL with a very serious injury. Lastly Tepper made 4 rehab starts in Low-A this month, enough so that he was basically on the team. Minor league rehab sessions can be up to 30 days for pitchers, so he’s got a few more days as of this writing before heading back to High-A. The team just promoted De la Cruz from the FCL; he may take Tepper’s spot.

Rotation Observations: Fischer, a 2025NDFA from UMiami, is dominating; 0.90 ERA, 0.90 whip in 6 May starts. Portorreal turned things around in a big way, even if he’s only doing 2-3 IP/start. Sime had an ugly era/whip but continued to strike out 2 guys an inning, so the team promoted him. Frankly, I don’t think he’s ready for the next level, not when he’s walking more than a guy an inning, but the fastball plays. Luke Johnson: 3.12 ERA but too many baserunners. He’s too hittable (.304 BAA). Tepper’s 4 rehab starts were stellar as expected.

Taking a quick peek at some of the guys still doing “tandem” longer relief sessions: Manning had 7 games/15IP, and a 20/2 K/BB. That’ll work. Sullivan had 2 starts and 6 appearances with a middling 4.86 ERA.

Next guy to get promoted:

• April: Meckley; indeed he was promoted
• May: Fischer

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• April: Portorreal: he has turned it around greatly.
• May: Probably Johnson if we had to pick someone; they’ve already settled the tandem starters and demoted guys to the pen

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Rookie FCL

Reminder: FCL guys are basically throwing 2-3 IP stints, so a month’s of work is usually 12-14 IP. This is small sample size analysis.

• Opening Day 2026: Weaver, Reyes, Martina, De la Cruz, Robles
• End of May 2026: Reyes, De la Cruz, Robles, Lopez, Bothwell,

Changes since end of last Month: Martina got a start the first week, but likely is hurt (hasn’t thrown since 5/11). The team added Bothwell into the mix so we show a 6-man “rotation” right now that has these guys mostly stacked up for tandem starts. Weaver made one start and hasn’t pitched since May 8th; not a good sign.

Rotation Observations: De la Cruz had a 0.75 ERA in 6 games and got promoted. Reyes looks promising: .122 BAA but a few too many walks. Lopez, Bothwell, and Reyes all have decent looking ERAs in the 3s and decent peripherals.

Next guy to get promoted:

• May: Reyes

Next guy to get cut/demoted:

• May: Robles

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Note: the DSL just started its league on 6/1, so we don’t know their rotation yet. We’ll cover that on July 1.

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That’s it for April 2026.

So, Keith Law released an updated Top 50 minor league prospects today, and something really struck me after reading his analysis. We’ve talked about this particular issue in the past in the comments after analyzing the rankings, but now its time to put all the scouting reports on the table openly.

Here’s how Law described Seaver King in his write up today from a defensive standpoint:

“He’s a 70 defender at short with plus bat speed, above-average power and an aggressive approach at the plate that should produce a lot of contact but maybe not many walks.“

70 defender at Short. The scale only goes up to 80. A 70 grade is a plus-plus grade indicating that the player is among the absolute best in the game at that particular skill. Keith Law does not throw out those grades lightly.

Meanwhile, here’s what we have on the books as grades and quotes from the other major pundits in the space.

Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen. Here’s his top 41 prospects published earlier this year, where he gave King a 30 present/45 future grade on his defense, and a 60 arm, writing the following:

“He isn’t yet a polished shortstop defender (he’s seen his first pro action at second base in 2026) and can be error-prone both fielding and throwing … It’s going to be important for King’s shortstop defense to polish up because his future big league fit is likely in a utility role.”

This was published in April 2026 and is already aging poorly, but a 30 present grade for his defense is wildly different from what Law is reporting. Wildly.

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Baseball America is a bit more middle of the road. In their January 2026 write-up, they gave him a 55 Arm and a 50 Field, then wrote the following:

“King played more third base and center field at Wake Forest, but he settled in as a reliable everyday shortstop with an above-average arm. He has the athletic ability to adapt at the position and learn its nuances..”

How about the boys at MLBPipeline? Their current scouting report is here. Current defensive grade: Arm 55, Field 50, exactly the same as BA, and had this to say about his defense in general:

“He played third base and center field at Wake but has been focused on shortstop in the pros. His athleticism could make him average there, but he has the arm strength to move back if needed.”

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So, what is it? Is King’s defense a 30 or a 70? Is it really a 55 like BA/MLB say and both Law and Longenhagen are smoking something?

Better question, one that has been articulated before in the comments … how is it possible that two professional scouts watch the same guy and come to such wildly different conclusions? I mean, it’s one thing for Jonathan Mayo to watch a Seaver King game and go, “eh, 55” while Jim Callis sits right next to him and says, “nah i like him, i’m going 60.” It’s entirely another for two guys to come to such a completely different opinion.

Its College Baseball post-season time, something we’ve followed in this space for years. Here’s a quick guide to the CWS 2026 post season. The field of 64 was announced on Memorial Day Weekend at Noon, so here’s a preview of this coming weekend’s 16 regional events.

First off, some resources for you.

• Your final top 25 heading into the post-season according to d1baseball, baseballamerica, and usatoday Coaches poll.
• WarrenNolan’s RPI rankings are a very important part of the seeding and selection process, as we’ll discuss in a bit.
• Here’s D1Baseball.com’s Tournament Central, my favorite place to track the tourney.
• Here’s the NCAA.com field of 64 Bracket with some great data points at NCAA.com

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Your top 8 seeds and favorites to make Omaha, in order, along with their D1Baseball Rank, RPI and their Strength of Schedule (SoS) denoted:

1. UCLA (51-6): D1Baseball #1, RPI #1, SoS #25
2. Georgia Tech (48-9): D1Baseball #2, RPI #2, SoS #15
3. Georgia (46-12): D1Baseball #3, RPI #7, SoS #24
4. Auburn (38-19), D1Baseball #5, RPI #3, SoS #1
5. North Carolina (45-11-1), D1Baseball #4, RPi #4, SoS #13
6. Texas (40-13) D1Baseball #6, RPI #5, SoS #9
7. Alabama (37-19). D1Baseball #16, RPI #6, SoS #3
8. Florida (39-19), D1Baseball #10, RPI #11, SoS #2

UCLA has put in one of the most dominant seasons we’ve seen in some time, and has never NOT been ranked #1 on any poll at any point during the season. They’re 51-6. here’s their 6 losses:

• 2/15/26 vs UC San Diego on the first Sunday of the season
• 2/24/26 vs San Diego State, a mid-week Tuesday game
• 4/14/26 vs UC Santa Barbara, another mid-week Tuesday game
• 4/26/26 vs Sacramento State, a Sunday series finale
• 5/9/26 vs Oregon, the Saturday game of their marquee series of the season
• 5/14/26 At Washington, the “Friday” game of their last league series of the season.

As for the rest of the top 8 seeds, Georgia Tech won the ACC tournament and #3 Georgia won the SEC tournament, so no surprise there. You can quibble slightly with Georgia’s RPI versus its ranking, but winning the SEC gives them that spot. Auburn gets seeded ahead of several other higher ranked SEC schools mostly because of its RPI and SoS, but they’re just 17-18 against Q1 schools, meaning I suspect they’ll be favored to get to Omaha but will go 2-out once they’re there. Same with Alabama, who is also .500 in Q1 games and is the only top 8 seed that seems to be out of line with their ranking. UNC is basically the 2nd best ACC team. Texas probably would have been above Auburn had they done better in the SEC tourney. Lastly we have Florida, who sneaks into a top 8 seed ahead of its rival Florida State, who has a slightly worse Q1 record and who lost too early in the ACC tourney.

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The National seeds 9-16 and the other regional hosts go as follows:

• #9: Southern Miss (44-15). D1baseball ranked #7, RPI #12, SoS #35.
• #10: Florida State (38-17): D1Baseball ranked #12, RPI #8, SoS #5
• #11: Oregon (40-16), D1Baseball ranked #15, RPI #15, SoS #29
• #12: Texas A&M (39-14), D1Baseball #11, RPI #14, SoS #17
• #13: Nebraska (42-15), D1Baseball #20, RPI #10, SoS #40
• #14: Mississippi State (40-17), D1Baseball #17, RPI #13, SoS #7
• #15 Kansas (42-16) D1baseball #13, RPI #19, SoS #60
• #16 West Virginia (39-14), D1Baseball #9, RPI #17, SoS #56

Are there any hosting snubs here? Yeah probably. I’d say Arkansas has the biggest beef here: they’re ranked 14th, just made the SEC tourney final, are a bit depressed in RPI but have a 18-13 Q1 record. But it’s splitting hairs; who would you take out? WVA is screwed as the #16 seed playing into UCLA when they’re ranked top 10 and just made their conference final. Maybe Nebraska is a little weak here, but they won the Big 10 and have to get some props. The highest ranked RPI team not hosting is USC out in California … but they went just 1-11 in Q1 games.

Conference Breakdown

As usual, the SEC and ACC dominate the field with 12 and 9 teams respectively. Every team in the ACC with a 14-16 conference record or better made the field, which included a couple of arguable bubble teams in UVA and NC State. Meanwhile, the SEC got 12 teams in, including Kentucky with its 13-17 conference record ahead of Vanderbilt. Big12 got 6 teams and the Big 10 got 4 teams to round out the rest of the power conferences. Big Baseball conference Sun Belt got a record 5 teams as well, led by Southern Miss and joined by Coastal Carolina, Troy, Louisiana, South Alabama, and Texas State.

Local DC/MD/VA local teams in the tourney:

Once again, it is kind of a down year for DC/MD/VA baseball in terms of top-ranked teams; not one local team finished the year anywhere close to the top 25. UVA has some down-ballot votes but that’s it; they were shredded when their coach took a huge contract and left the program. Several local teams are in the field of 64 from the state however: Virginia, Virginia Tech, VCU, Liberty plus neighbor schools that usually have VA kids like West Virginia, ECU, CCU).

Snubs and Surprises in the field

The biggest snub seems to be Mercer; they’re RPI #28 and there’s a slew of at-large teams with lower ranks that got picked over them. their SoS hurts them, and they left themselves in jeopardy after getting upset in their conference tourney.

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Quick Regional Thoughts

Here’s one sentence or so on each regional

1. UCLA should have no issues advancing; Virginia Tech gets a 3,000 mile flight to play in this regional.
2. Georgia Tech has to fend off a top 25 edge case team in Oklahoma but shouldn’t have any issues.
3. Georgia gets a weak ACC also ran in Boston College and Liberty; easy regional.
4. Auburn has to fend off UCF and a team in NC State that probably shouldn’t have made the field.
5. North Carolina gets a mid-pack SEC team in Tennessee and VCU. Tennessee has a late 1st round starter Tegan Kuhns who could cause issues if they save him, but UNC is favored here.
6. Texas has a joke of a regional with UCSB, Holy Cross, and Tarleton State. UCSB likely holds their 1st round pick Jackson Flora for the Texas matchup, but they don’t have much after him.
7. Alabama’s #2 seed is Oklahoma State, who can be plucky but not a challenge. They’re the most vulnerable of the top 8 seeds.
8. Florida gets their buddies Miami for a fun regional, but should advance. Florida and Miami met early in the season at Miami and Florida won both weekend games (the Sunday game got rained out).
9. Southern Miss has UVA in their regional, who would be a decent foe but who are a long ways from home. Some may think an ACC team is favored here, but Southern Miss is a tough team.
10. Florida State should have been a top 8 seed and will have to deal with Coastal Carolina’s ace Cameron Flukey to advance. But, Flukey can only pitch once, so advantage FSU.
11. Oregon has a cakewalk of a regional against two former Pac12 foes in Oregon State and Washington State.
12. Texas A&M has to be happy with their #2 being Southern California, who is an RPI darling who can’t beat any big teams (1-11 in Q1 games). Their #3 team Texas State might be more formidable.
13. Nebraska will struggle with SEC battle-tested Ole Miss in their bracket, along with the college baseball legends from Arizona State, who also has a 1st round projected starter who may get burned before they face Nebraska. Upset watch here, unless both Ole Miss and AZ State burn their aces in game one.
14. Mississippi State has to love this regional; Cincinnati and Louisiana? Really?
15. Kansas beat West Virginia for the Big 12 tourney title and for their trouble will get Arkansas, who likely blows them away.
16. West Virginia gets both an ACC and SEC team in Wake Forest and Kentucky. This should be a dog-fight. Wake as a #2 seed here is my slight favorite b/c of the strength of the conference.

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Prospect Watch. By region, here’s some guys to watch that are like top 50 college prospects in this year’s draft:

1. UCLA regional: Roch Cholowsky is the leading 1-1 overall candidate for UCLA. UCLA also has a late 1st round arm in Logan Reddeman and 3B Roman Martin. 3 1st round talents will help you go 51-6.
2. Georgia Tech regional: GaTech’s catcher Vahn Lackey is likely going top 5. Drew Burress has been top5 in this cycle and has been mocked to the Nats in some drafts.
3. Georgia regional: (no 1st rounders in this regional)
4. Auburn regional: Auburn is led by 2B Chris Rembert, a late 1st rounder.
5. North Carolina regional: Tennessee’s ace is late 1st rounder Tegan Kuhns.
6. Texas regional: UCSB’s Jackson Flora is an upper 1st rounder.
7. Alabama regional: their SS and leading hitter is Justin Lebron, who might be in the mix for the Nats at #11.
8. Florida regional: Fla’s ace is Liam Peterson, likely the 2nd or 3rd arm off the board.
9. Southern Miss regional: UVA’s Eric Becker and AJ Gracia have 1st round buzz.
10. Florida State regional: Coastal Carolina’s ace Cameron Flukey is a mid 1st rounder.
11. Oregon regional: (no 1st rounders in this regional)
12. Texas A&M regional: TAMU is led by SS Chris Hacopian, who has mid 1st round projections. The Aggies also have a power hitting 1B in Gavin Grahovac, who may be end of 1st/supp-1st pick and another late 1st pick in Of Caden Sorrell.
13. Nebraska regional: Ole Miss’ ace is Cade Townsend and AZ State’s ace is Cole Carlon, who may meet in game one of the regional.
14. Mississippi State regional: Ace Reese for the hosts is a late 1st round 3B prospect.
15. Kansas regional: Arkansas’ ace is 1st rounder Hunter Dietz and they have 1st round Catcher prospect Ryder Helfrick as well.
16. West Virginia regional: Kentucky’s SS Tyler Bell is a 1st rounder.

Top 1st round prospects whose team outright missed the post season:

• LSU had a shockingly bad year. Derek Curiel is likely a mid-1st rounder.
• TCU just missed the bubble, so no post-season scouting of both their 1st round outfielders Sawyer Strosnider and Chase Brunson.
• Louisville had a down year; OF Zion Rose is a late 1st rounder.

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We’ll circle back next week with Regional recaps and Super Regional projections. We probably will also return with a check-in on the 1-1 candidates in our regular series.