Nationals Arm Race

We introduced a new segment this year, based on our team having the 1st overall pick (which is abbreviated “1-1” meaning 1st round, 1st pick) of the 2025 draft. Since we’ll get our choice of players for the first time in a generation. I’m putting in periodic updates about the candidates to go 1st overall.

Here’s a one-month check-in on the top College candidates, who now have four weeks worth of competition, along with links for the top prep candidates in the mix.

In early March, Keith Law posted his first look at the top candidates and included a couple of new names at the top that we’ll add to the names we looked at in our first of this series two weeks ago.

Aggregation Stats for all of College

• Fangraphs Standard Hitting, Advanced Hitting
• Fangraphs Standard Pitching, Advanced Pitching
• Baseball-Reference College Home Page
• NCAA Division 1 Baseball Stats Home Page
• D1Baseball.com Stats Home Page

Link Block for the top guys under 1-1 consideration

• Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M. TAMU stats & Box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State. FSU stats & box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara. UCSB stats & box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State. OSU stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Cam Canarella, CF, Clemson. Clemson stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee. Tennessee stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee. Tennessee stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK). MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA). MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX). MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt

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Here’s some commentary:

• LaViolette: One month in, and he’s still only hitting .235. His OBP is ok (.414) and his Slugging solid (.515). He had a great Friday night against New Mexico State last weekend, but took o-fers in mid-week games against UTSA and Texas-Southern, which is an abomination. Mid-week starters are like the 4th or 5th starters, and UTSA/Texas-Southern aren’t exactly SEC quality opponents. He’s playing his way, not only out of the 1-1 conversation, but maybe even out of the top 10.
• Arnold: After two solid games to open the season, he gave up 2 runs in 5IP against the non-powerhouse Georgetown Hoyas on 2/28, then hasn’t pitched since. He was scratched against Lipscomb with “illness” for his 3/7 start. At least it wasn’t b/c of an arm issue. We’ll see how he bounces back as they open ACC play against Boston College next Friday. BC just hammered UVA, so they’ll be an interesting out.
• Bremner: he bounced back after two middling starts to shut down Fresno State with 7ip, 3hits, 1run, but only 4Ks. He then gave up three runs to Cal State Northridge, not an impressive outing. He needs to show some 7ip, 3hit, 10k, 0BB outings and fast if he wants to be a top 10 draft pick.
• Arquette got the Keith Law Treatment, whose TL/DR summary is this: “he’s too big to play SS, struggled when i saw him, but he’s probably the best college hitter right now.” Through 4 weeks of play, he’s sporting the healthy slash line of .400/.492/.640. And he’s doing it against what probably is the toughest early season schedule out there as Oregon State embarks on its non-affiliated life post PAC-12.
• Canarella has decent if not sparkling stats so far. .288/.431/.462. Not a ton of power/XBH so far (just 1 HR). He was more well regarded last year and isn’t re-pushing upwards to regain his top spot so far.
• Doyle is pushing his name upwards so far this year. Through 4 starts, he’s got “oversized little leaguer” stats right now. 20.1 IP, 6 hits, 1 run given up for a 0.44 ERA. But he’s got a 47/5 K/BB ratio in those 20.1 IP, which means that of the 61 batters he’s retired thus far, 47 have been by whiff. Wow. His 4 opponents: Hofstra, Samford, Oklahoma State, and St. Bonaventure. Ok so not the greatest competition, but against OK State he still had 9Ks in 4 1/3rd IP.
• Kilen has popped up on radars b/c of silly stats he’s putting up in Tennessee’s early season. He’s got an obscene slash line right now of .463/.589/1.093 slugging for an OPS figure north of 1.600. And he’s not even the biggest OPS figure on his team. He’s got 8 homers in 16 games to go with a ton of other XBHs. Is he a top prospect? He’s an undersized 2B with a hot start; we’ll see if he can keep things going.
• Holliday has nothing new that I can find; its March so his HS season probably hasn’t started yet, but his HS stats would be useless anyway.
• Hernandez; same as Holliday. All we can hope for is a scouting trip like what Law posted for Cunning ham.
• Cunningham had a snippet in Law’s latest scouting notebook. TL/DR: “he’s probably not even 5’9″, has almost no power but has a great bat, and is more like a mid-1st rounder.” We may not bother covering him much further given who else is here and since we’re only projecting the best possible 1-1 candidate. A 5’8″ prep SS isn’t going 1-1.

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Quick Tangent: did you see that George Mason scored TWENTY-THREE runs in the 2nd inning of their mid-week game against Holy Cross? 23 runs. Here’s the box score. The sequence of events is actually pretty hilarious. The inning included:

• Eight (8) walks
• Five (5) HBP
• Five (5) infield hits, bunts, or fielders choices
• Eight (8) hits that left the infield, several of which were bases-clearing doubles.

Someone on GMU also, in a move that probably had their coach screaming, STOLE THIRD BASE while up 13 in the inning. I’m surprised there weren’t more than 5 HBP.

Last funny item from the box score: Attendance: 25. Those Patriot fans really come out to support the team!

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So, who’s in the lead to go 1-1? I’m liking what i’m seeing out of Doyle. Arquette maintaining his production. Want to see what happens with Arnold. Maybe Holliday is getting back in the mix just by virtue of the likes of LaViolette and Bremner falling.

The second to last of the major pundits dropped their Nats top 30 today on 3/4/25; here’s a review of the list as I’ve been doing with other major pundits.

The final one outstanding is Fangraphs/Eric Longenhagen, who didn’t release until May last year and is only about a third of the way done with the teams as we speak. I’m not going to wait for his ranking to release my rankings, which are going 90+ deep right now for our system.

For now, here’s the MLBPipeline list. I think its safe to say this is the sanest list I’ve seen yet, with very little wildcards or shock names. It very much aligns with my personal list, as we’ll discuss.

Here’s the top 30 in table format:

Rank	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)
3	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
4	House	Brady	SS/3B
5	King	Seaver	SS
6	Clemmey	Alex	LHP (Starter)
7	Dickerson	Luke	SS/CF
8	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
9	Lomavita	Caleb	C
10	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
11	Wallace	Cayden	3B
12	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
13	Morales	Yohandy	3B
14	Bazzell	Kevin	C/3B
15	Stuart	Tyler	RHP (Starter)
16	Feliz	Angel	3B/SS
17	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
18	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
19	Hurtado	Victor	OF
20	Cortesia	Brayan	SS
21	Kent	Jackson	LHP (Starter)
22	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)
23	Lord	Brad	RHP (Starter)
24	Grissom	Marquis	RHP (Reliever)
25	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
26	Pinckney	Andrew	OF (Corner)
27	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
28	Reifert	Evan	RHP (Reliever)
29	Made	Kevin	SS
30	Peterson	Sammy	OF (CF)

Here’s some thoughts.

• Same top 4 as everyone else.
• Really, the same top 5 as everyone else.
• House down below the two arms; no surprise.
• Clemmey at #6, like a lot of the shops. I like him a little lower b/c he’s so young, but he’s a high ceiling guy for sure.
• They’re by far the highest on Dickerson, and have not wavered on him being this high since their December update. I’ve got him at #12, have seen him as low as #17. I’m hesitant to have a guy top 10 who hasn’t faced a pro pitch yet, but they arent.
• They’ve got Lile at #10, which is in line with most other shops. I’ve beaten the Lile horse to death at this point.
• Morales: dumped down to #13. They had him at #9 in December, and he was at #5 a year ago. Ok I get that Morales clearly was layered by breakout performances (Sykora and Susana) and 2024 draft picks (King, Dickerson, Lomavita) but he should have kept pace. We’ve had this conversation at length, no need to rehash it.
• I think they’re a little low on Lara at #17, but not egregiously so.
• Cortesia at #20: that’s aspriational for a 16yr old DSL kid, but he did get 1st round money ($1.9M) so we’ll see how his 2025 goes.
• They’re by far the high man on Jackson Kent at #21.
• They really, really like Grissom Jr and have him 20 spots higher than I do. Nobody else has him in their top 30; he’s at #24 here. This is probably the biggest issue I have with their top 30.
• They’re also high-man on Sam Peterson, having him at #30 despite him not getting assigned out of XST last summer.

Who they’re missing:

• Chaparro apparently doesn’t rate anybody’s prospect lists. Why? He’s still a rookie, he destroyed AAA pitching last year (albeit lots in the PCL), and made the majors at age 25. Come on; you’re ranking middle RHP relievers in AA but not a guy who got 30 games in the majors last year? What are we doing?
• The same story to a lesser extent for Baker: not ranked.
• No love for Cruz and his $3.9M bonus
• No Rutledge (who BA has at #20), finally acknowledging that he may be out of chances to contribute.

All in all, a solid list, very much in line with my rankings as they’ve now settled, and hard to criticize a ton.

Did you know we’re already two weeks into the D1 college season?

Let’s look at the first two weeks of the season for some of the top-ranked candidates to go 1-1, and draw some ridiculous and wildly speculative short-sample-size driven conclusions. 🙂

Actually, more seriously, I wanted to take a bit of time to do the first part of this post, which is to capture direct links for the players in question to have a quick resource I can refer back to. So, hope you enjoy this as well to save you some googling.

I’ll focus on probably just 5-6 players right now, maybe add more if players pop this spring. Obviously can’t do this for the HS guys in the mix like Holliday but if we can find something for them i’ll add it.

Link Block:

• Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M. TAMU stats & Box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State. FSU stats & box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara. UCSB stats & box Scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State. OSU stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt
• Cam Canarella, CF, Clemson. Clemson stats & box scores, MLBPipeline rpt, BA draft rpt

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Two week check-ins:

• LaViolette: starting slow; slashing .211/.444/.737 through two weekend series. Playing CF despite his size/projection to be a corner OF in the pros, batting 2nd. Only has four hits through 6 games but all four were XBH, pushing up his slugging and OPS. They’ve played Elon and Cal Poly on neutral fields, not exactly powerhouses, so a little disappointing of a start.
• Arnold: FSU’s #1/Friday night starter: Can’t ask for a better start: 2 starts, 2 wins, 11IP and just 3 hits allowed. He went 6ip/1h against my alma mater JMU in the opener, then went 5ip/2h against Penn last weekend. Obviously Penn isn’t a baseball powerhouse but JMU can be frisky. In both games he was on a short pitch count and could have gone longer.
• Bremner: UCSB’s #1/Friday starter: went 3 hitless innings to open against Campbell (rumor had it the weather was super cold), then 3 runs in 3IP against a weaker Seattle University team. Keith Law was on hand and wasn’t complementary of what he saw.
• Arquette is on fire to start, playing SS and batting 2nd for OSU. Through two weekends he’s slashing .440/.559/.880 as OSU played in two top-notch tourneys to open their season. There’s definitely something to like about this guy.
• Canarella has been playing CF and batting third for Clemson to start, but got subbed out of one game and missed another early in the season. He had labrum surgery (!!) in the off-season and there was some question if he’d be ready to go in Feb, and its also why some boards have him out of the top of the draft for now. So far, a slow start: .250/.333/.375 with almost no power. It’s also fair to say their opening weekend tournament was about as tough as it could be (they played OK State, Arizona, and Ole Miss). I wonder if he’s really even in the mix for the upper half of the first round.

Where do these players’ teams rank btw? Per D1baseball’s updated rankings post-weekend results,

• TAMU #1 (holding at #1)
• FSU #7 (up from #9)
• UCSB #20 (up one from #21 pre weekend)
• OSU #9 (down from #7 before weekend)
• Clemson #13 (up 1 from #14 pre weekend)

So all these players are playing for top teams in solid divisions, which guarantees good competition when we get to conference play.

So, that’s a quick check in. Arnold and Arquette look great, LaViolette starting slow, Canarella may still be hurt, and Bremner seems like he may drop out of 1-1 contention unless he starts blowing away sub-par competition.

Law just released his top 20 for the Nats system.

Keith Law has always been somewhat of a contrarian in these prospect rankings, and for good reason. His methodology for each year basically throws out last year’s results and starts over, which allows him to break free of a “prospect-retention” paradigm that plagues some ranking shops. This logic eliminates players like Elijah Green, who has performed so terribly in low-A but who was so highly regarded (and highly paid) as an upper-1st rounder in 2022. It also basically eliminates high-bonus IFA guys who have scuffled in the low minors (a methodology I agree with as well). As a result, Law often ends up with some names ranked in places that we havn’t seen before, which we’ll cover below.

Law also proven himself, especially this year, as a talent evaluator who isn’t afraid to dream on newly drafted players, especially college players, and may have some of them over-drafted.

Law’s stuff is behind a paywall, so y ou miss out on his per-player evaluations (which are insightful), but here’s his top 20:

Rank	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	King	Seaver	SS
3	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)
4	House	Brady	SS/3B
5	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
6	Bazzell	Kevin	C/3B
7	Clemmey	Alex	LHP (Starter)
8	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
9	Dickerson	Luke	SS/CF
10	Stuart	Tyler	RHP (Starter)
11	Lomavita	Caleb	C
12	Morales	Yohandy	3B
13	Wallace	Cayden	3B
14	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
15	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
16	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
17	Made	Kevin	SS
18	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
19	Diaz	Randal	SS/3B
20	Cranz	Robert	RHP (Reliever)

As is tradition, lets run through this list top to bottom.

• It goes without saying that so far, Law is tops on Seaver King, having him at #2 in the system. We knew this was coming b/c when Law released his top 100 for the entirety of the Minors two weeks ago, King was listed ahead of Sykora. Law projects him as a SS in the majors, with great speed, sneaky power, but his hit tool is the best. Can’t wait to see him in Wilmington this year.
• The rest of the top 5 is as expected, in about the expected order. He’s worried about Sykora’s mechanics (but, to be fair, Law is worried about a lot of pitcher’s mechanics), worried about House’s lack of BB rate in AAA, and worried about Susana’s inability to get LHB out.
• Quick deeper dive into Susana, because I think some of this stuff is fascinating. Here’s his fangraphs page. For the entirety of 2024, he had a BABIP of .372. .372!! That’s ridiculous, and is why his ERA was in the 4s but his FIP was in the 2s. You don’t often see a full 2-point delta between pitchers’ ERA and FIP. Here’s his MILB stats page with 2024 splits. Law pointed out that LHB had a .407 OBP against him last year; he had a 1.98 WHIP against lefties versus a 0.97 whip against righties. He attributes this to his 3/4 slot and lack of command. It sounds to me like he needs to develop a change-up that can keep lefties off-balance. The thing is, these are fringe issues with a guy who also hits 100, holds upper 90s deep into games, and doesn’t have a ton of effort in his delivery. I cannot wait to see what he does when he hits AA.
• Coming in at #6: Bazzell. Phew, by far the high man on this guy. Most other shops have him in the 14-15 range. I sense his ranking is assuming that Bazzell hits like he did in college AND plays Catcher; if he’s playing 3B he’s not quite as high of a prospect. With both Bazzell and Lomavita drafted in the same draft, one has to think one is going to Low-A and the other to High-A. I find it kind of interesting that Law has Bazzell so much higher than Lomavita, who was drafted ahead/paid out more in the same draft. Honestly, this is too high for Bazzell.
• He has Dickerson inside the top 10, entirely on tools. I also think this is too high, especially for a cold-weather prep kid who hasn’t yet taken a pro at bat. Like with IFAs, I like to see at least some production in the FCL before saying someone is a top 10 prospect.
• Some love for Tyler Stuart, one of a handful of AAA starters we were just talking about as generally being underrated by prospect watchers (along with Lord and Alvarez). Remember: Baseball America had Stuard #25.
• Morales at #12. Law had Morales ranked #6 this time last year, and in his writeup he freely admits that a) Morales had a hand injury all year and b) he “seemed” ok once he returned in August. So, like all the other shops that have dropped him … i’m just kind of at a loss. I have him #6 on my list, right now, and I don’t plan on dropping him.
• He has Lile down at #14. And, it’s almost like he was reading the comments i’ve been making about him. Here’s a direct quote from Law about Lile: “Lile might be a tweener, lacking the power for an outfield corner and with just a fringe-average defense in center, leaving him in Fourth Outfielder Town, which is only two stops away from DFAville.” EXACTLY what i’ve been saying for a while now in the comments. Honestly, if Lile blows up and starts hitting .330 this year, we should just trade him. There’s more and better outfielders already in the majors, and more and better CF prospects in the minors behind him.
• He’s just slightly lower on Lara than most others. Unlike Susana above, his BABIP upon reaching AA was really low, which blows up his FIP as compared to his actual ERA. His per-pitch scouting report basically shows him with slider as his #1 pitch, and the other three being 40s or 45s. That’s not good. I’ll be curious to see how this plays out, but Law is predicting him to be a 2-pitch middle reliever despite being so young and projecting to the AAA rotation.
• Hassell at #16. I think Its time for me to just admit that Hassell may not be the top-end prospect I have hoped for. Law prints a shocking stat: “He didn’t have a single extra-base hit off a lefty in 76 PA last year, and had just three (all doubles) off them in 2023, for a .218 slugging percentage off southpaws over two years.” That is patently amazing. Here’s his 2024 splits. Indeed: 61 ABs versus LHPs last year and zero XBH for a slash line of .213/.319/.213. Here’s something else interesting: he was legitimately good leading off (.285/.363/.381) but patently awful when batting lower in the order. Is that someone who’s literally pouting b/c he’s not leading off? So strange. Nonetheless, its hard to ignore this, and a full season in AAA with lefty specialists may do even more to expose him.
• Made at #17: i just don’t get it. I have him in the mid-30s and even that’s a stretch. But Law seems to admit the same, saying, “This is almost a placeholder — he has enough of a base of other skills to be a utility infielder, as long as he starts to hit the ball harder. If he doesn’t do that, he’s not a prospect.” At this point, i’m leaning towards the latter, having him buried in the mid 30s. Honestly, if you had to rank SS in our system right now, you’d go MLB starter: Abrams, MLB backups: Nunez/Rosario. AAA depth: Lipscomb, Made, then you have mid-minors prospects with promise like Cruz, King, and Diaz, Ramirez (who should be your AA, High-A, and Low-A starters in 2025), then you’ve got prep/DSL prospects with promise like Dickerson and Feliz. So, not a lot of pure prospect depth in the system of for-real guys who project to stick at SS … but if Made is hitting .220 in AA and you have 1st rounder Seaver King waiting in the wings producing in High-A … what are you gonna do? Made may only be 22 but he’s certainly at a cross-roads where he has to prove he’s not the next coming of Nasim Nunez.

Ok, so here’s where I have to eat some crow, having blasted BA’s list. Because the last two guys on Law’s list are surprises for sure.

• #19: 2024 5th rounder Randal Diaz. This is a first time ranking anywhere for Diaz, and coming out of the 2024 draft he was not one of the handful of guys I even was projecting into the top 50. It’s one thing to rank our top bonus guys in our top 20 automatically (King, Lomavita, Dickerson, and Bazzell). It is another to do down-ballot prospect ranking, especially for under-slot 2nd day guys like Diaz and Cranz. I guess Diaz has gotten some attention lately thanks to his making the Puerto Rican national team; if he’s a sneaky good 2nd day draft pick for us, all the better. He’ll presumably get the Low-A starting SS job and we’ll see how it goes.
• #20 2024 7th rounder Robert Cranz. BA also rated Cranz relatively highly, having him come in at #24. Law thinks Cranz is a 4-pitch guy who may start. But, again, as i said in the BA review … if he is a 4-pitch starter quality guy, why didn’t he frigging start in college?? I took a quick glance at OK State’s baseball stats for 2024: they had two guys who were full time Fri/Sat starters, then gave Sunday and midweek starts to a slew of guys while keeping Cranz basically as a stopper, not even the closer (just 2 saves). I mean, yes there’s value to a guy like that, but there’s more value to having a guy who can go 6ip with 1r. So I repeat the same thing I asked in the last post; if Cranz was this good, why the F wasn’t he starting in college? Are Oklahoma State’s baseball staff so stupid as to think that a middle reliever provides more value than a starter? Because more and more, that’s what its looking like; a patent failure in talent evaluation at that program.

Honorable mentions: these clearly aren’t the guys ranked 21-25, but he calls out a few notables. Sam Peterson, Angel Feliz (who i’ve mentioned already and who is in my top 20), Ramirez, Vaquero, and Sir Jamison Jones.

players not on his top 20 of note:

• Feliz: who did produce as a big $ IFA and who is at the back-end of my top 20.
• Lord, mentioned before as not really being a flashy guy but who produced like crazy in 2024.
• No love for Pinckney, even if the Nats have given him a NRI invite two years in a row.
• No mention of our 2025 IFA signings, which is common with law; he’s like me and wants to see some production and not just ranking of the signing bonus.
• Green, as discussed ad nauseum.

Honestly, just giving a top 10 for a system is almost like taking a remedial course in college just so you can get an A on your transcript. In year’s past McDaniel has gone much deeper (22 prospects in 2024, 28 in 2023, 32 or more in 2022), so maybe we’ll get a more comprehensive list eventually, but for now, here’s his top 10 for the Nats system.

Quick thoughts.

• Four of these players are in his top 100, a high mark for any of the overall top 100 lists.
• He retains confidence in House, unlike Law, BA, and MLBPipeline.
• Interestingly he has Sykora below Susana, also a first in this off-season.
• King at #5 is now pretty standard after the top 4 names.
• Clemmey and Cavalli remain on his top 200, though one has to think Cavalli’s last year of being a prospect is 2025. He’s either going to produce in the majors or become our most high profile 1st round failure since Romero
• This is the highest we’ve seen either Lile or Lomavita.
• Wallace at #10 means he’s creeping up, and it’ll be super interesting to see how the organization handles/juggles playing time for both Wallace and House if they’re both in AAA. One has to make way for the other, especially since House is the better bet to be a longer-term 3B in the majors.

Not making the top 10, but who are top 10 calibre on other lists:

(This is not criticism of this top 10, which is pretty solid honestly, but here’s some players who have made top 10 lists on other shops so far this year):

• Hassell
• Morales
• Lara
• Dickerson
• Chapparo (which was on a fantasy-focused list, so that’s an outlier)

I’m not sure you’re making an argument for any of these five over Lile or Wallace. Ok, maybe if it was ME i’d make an argument over Lile, but i’m low-man on Lile and high-man on Hassell.

One last thing: McDaniel’s callout for prospect ot watch is Dickerson, which we’ve heard a couple times already. Super excited to see what he can do in 2025.

The first of the five “major” shops/pundits that evaluate and rank prospects (BA, MLBPipeline, Law, Longenhagen, and McDaniel) released their top 30s for systems today…. and boy is the Nats list weird.

I’ll go through the list as always, offering up opinions and observations.

First off, here’s their top 30.

ba	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)
3	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
4	House	Brady	SS/3B
5	King	Seaver	SS
6	Clemmey	Alex	LHP (Starter)
7	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
8	Lomavita	Caleb	C
9	Wallace	Cayden	3B
10	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
11	Dickerson	Luke	SS/CF
12	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
13	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
14	Bazzell	Kevin	C/3B
15	Feliz	Angel	3B/SS
16	Pinckney	Andrew	OF (Corner)
17	Cortesia	Brayan	SS
18	Millas	Drew	C
19	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
20	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)
21	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)
22	Morales	Yohandy	3B
23	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
24	Cranz	Robert	RHP (Reliever)
25	Stuart	Tyler	RHP (Starter)
26	Hernandez	Daniel	C
27	Nunez	Elijah	OF (Corner)
28	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
29	Lord	Brad	RHP (Starter)
30	Romero	Brayan	RHP (Starter)

Here we go.

top 10

• Same top 4 as everyone else, albeit dinging House a little bit. BA notes the same concerns that Law had with House, namely that he had like a 3% walk rate in AAA. I don’t think he’s ready for the Majors and can’t quite believe he’ll win the job out of MLB camp this spring, which would give him time to add some patience to his approach and not start his service time clock so early.
• Clemmey up at #6. I might be a little high on Clemmey in comparison to where i’m seeing him in other shops (the 5 rankings I have for him so far this off season go 6-7-6-6-6). Fair enough; he’s a young 19yr old who struck out 123 in 92 low-A innings. That doesn’t suck.
• Unlike some ranking shops who have given up hope on Cavalli, BA has him right there at #7. I’ve got him slightly lower based on fear that he’s not ever coming back, but BA has stayed strong.
• They’re super high on Lomavita at #8. This is a trend that we’ll see in this BA list the rest of the way; very bullish on brand new kids who have shown almost nothing yet at the pro level.
• I remain low-man on Lile, as discussed here multiple times, but BA having him at #10 tracks with most other shops.

Here’s 11-20.

• Ok, here’s where this starts to go off the rails. You have Dickerson at #11, who has zero pro at bats, and Hassell #12, who’s ended the season in AAA before he turned 23. Um. What are we doing here? Hassell likely gets MLB at bats THIS YEAR, even if he’s hitting .200 in AAA, because he’s now on the active roster. Dickerson may not even make the Low-A team in April. I get that prospect lists are a balancing act between floor and ceiling … but this one seems crazy to me.
• BA remembers how good Bennett was, and kept him exactly at #13, which is where they ranked him in Jan 2024. I wonder how quickly he gets back to High-A. Fairly or not, I’ve got him well lower on my rank, as do most other shops.
• The first appearance of 2025 IFA class star Brayan Cortesia on any ranking list, coming in at #17. With all due respect to his $1.9M bonus, this is way too high. Then again, I’m loath to rank a player anywhere in the top 30 these days until they make it to the FCL.
• Drew Millas at #18. Why? He’s frigging 27 and he’s a backup catcher as a ceiling and has been for five years. That’s not a prospect anymore; that’s called an org guy.
• How the hell is Andry Lara so low? I dunno, maybe i’m the only guy impressed by a guy with an ERA in the 3s as a 21yr old in AA never missing a start? Ok, maybe he’s not a top 5 prospect, but tell me you’d rather have Bennett (6 slots higher) than Lara right now.
• Rutledge at #20 ; they still have faith. I don’t. Unless he’s moving to the bullpen, what makes anyone think they’ll see anything different out of the guy in 2025?

21-30 … with obvious caveats about players in this range… but man there’s some crazy names here.

• Brzycky at #21: i’m on record saying this is too high for relievers, but whatever.
• Morales at #22. Wait, what?? Every other shop so far, including me, has him in the 8-9 range. #22?? In August of 2024, BA had him at #6 in the system, and in their scouting report they explicitly say that he had a thumb injury that hampered his production this year. Bennett misses a y ear to TJ and doesn’t get dinged a single slot, but Morales (who finished strong post injury) gets knocked down nearly 20 spots?? This makes no sense. But don’t worry, this isn’t even the dumbest ranking yet.
• At #24 I give you Robert Cranz. In case you don’t recognize the name, he was a 7th round pick in 2024, signed for $100k UNDER slot, was a reliever in college and went straight into Fredericksburg’s bullpen, where he threw a handful of playoff innings. #24 in the system. I didn’t have him in my top 90. In the scouting report it says the Nats may make him a starter … uh, if he could start, why didn’t he do so in college?? This ranking makes zero sense to me.
• Meanwhile, one slot later they have Tyler Stuart at #25, who STARTED 25 games last year between AA and AAA. I just don’t get it; you’d rank a college reliever with 6 pro innings higher than a starter who “solved” AA at age 24?
• Daniel Hernandez, 2025 IFA signing at #26. Sure.
• #27 Nasim Nunez, who had so few PAs last year that he still remains rookie eligible for shops like BA, who ignore service time. I wouldn’t have him this high, but wouldn’t be upset if someone ranked him in the 30s.
• Like Stuart, Brad Lord’s rise to AAA seems to be greeted at BA with a sniff. He’s at the back end of their top 30. Perhaps its just me impressed by what Lord has done. I think the knock on Lord is a lack of a 4th pitch. But, he’s a sinker guy, so often guys like this don’t bother learning two fastballs since their value is getting hitters to drive the ball into the ground.
• Rounding out the top 30, one last laugher; Brayan Romero. I almost wonder if this ranking is a joke to see if anyone’s paying attention. He posted a 5.52 ERA in Low-A this year as a 22yr old. Ok, so I understand he missed a season and he’s tooled up. But really.

Players they don’t have in their top 30 that I do:

• Chapparo: he’ll probably be on the MLB team, whether that counts for anything or not.
• Victor Hurtado and Armando Cruz: so we love Cortesia and his big bonus, but one-season-in Hurtado? Or Cruz, who (earned or not) ended the season in High-A?
• Darren Baker: I guess MLB-roster backup infielders aren’t as valuable as low-A middle releivers.
• Andrew Alvarez. Making AAA just doesn’t mean what it used to.
• Jackson Kent: wasn’t he the heralded arm out of the upper rounds of our 2024 draft? MLBPipeline has him in the mid 20s.
• Don’t forget about Rafael Ramirez

So, there you are. Strange one, this list was.

You know we’re getting close to Spring Training when the annual press release goes out announcing Non-Roster Spring Training Invitees (NRIs). The Nats announced the initial crop this week, immediately forgot at least a couple guys who have ST invites on their transactions page, and probably will add more as they sign up veteran FAs, but for now here’s who we have:

(Note: the NRIs are color coded purple on the Big Board for tracking)

• Starting Pitchers: Brad Lord, Tyler Stuart, Konnor Pilkington, Jarlin Susana, Joan Adon,
• Relief pitchers: Daison Acosta, Marquis Grissom Jr., Clay Helvey, Jack Sinclair,,
• Catchers: Andrew Knizner, Caleb Lomavita, Max Romero Jr., and Brad Lindsley (left off Nats announcement)
• Infielders: Brady House, Yohandy Morales, Cayden Wallace
• Outfielders: Daylen Lile, Andrew Pinckney, Franchy Cordero (left off press release)

The list includes a huge chunk of our projected AAA roster: i’d say of the 16 NRIs listed here, 14 of them will be in AAA to start the year. In fact, the only ones who won’t be in AAA are Susana and Romero, both probably heading to AA.

NRIs are important. Believe it or not, more than a dozen of 2024’s NRIs eventually played in the majors last year, some with pretty significant roles. So this group collectively will play a big role for the 2025 team. Traditionally 3-4 will make the team out of ST to open the season, while others get called up.

NRIs generally fall into several categories:

1. Top Prospects getting their first shot with the big boys: this describes at least Susana, Lomavita, House, Morales, Wallace, and Lile. I suppose Pinckney is here as well since he doesn’t qualify for any of the other categories.
2. Starters to eat split squad innings: I would throw Lord and Stuart in this bucket, along with Adon.
3. Catchers, because we need people to catch all these ST bullpen sessions: Knizner, Romero, Lindsley
4. Veteran MLFAs who were promised the NRI as a condition of signing: Helvey, Plington, Cordero
5. Under-the-Radar relievers who might be useful middle relievers: Acosta, Grissom, Sinclair

Is Adon still a prospect? After four option years, what exactly does the team need to see here? Perhaps they’re planning on converting him to relief, so he’d fall into category #4.

The team has already signed a dozen MLFAs for 2025, but only a couple have NRIs. This in and among itself is a message, but some of the non-NRIs are surprising.

• We have a MLFA 28yr old catcher CJ Stubbs on the AAA roster right now: no NRI.
• Andrew Alvarez is slated to be in the AAA rotation; no NRI.
• We’ve heard people rave about reliever Carlos Romero: no NRI.
• The only lefty reliever in AAA Garvin Alston? no NRI.
• We’ve signed several aged 28-30 MLFAs who got assigned to AA straight away, an indication they’re just org arms.
• We’ve also signed several younger relief arms this month, all in the 23-25 range, newly 6-year FAs after being young IFA signings; these kind of guys may need more seasoning and aren’t candidates to join the bullpen.
• A few rule-5 candidates we talked about at length but no NRI include Solesky, De la Rosa, Made, and Shuman, which probably tells us what we need to know about the organization’s thought about these guys.

Who’s likely to make the team out of this list? Probably a bit early to predict, but I only count 9 total relievers on the entire 40-man right now, one of whom is out with TJ. So, there’s opportunities here for especially the arms who can slot into bullpen spots.

We didn’t really talk about the top prospects in camp. Of them, House seems the most likely to win a starting job, based on the lack of a FA 3b signing. We’ve litigated him to death; no he’s not ready, he probably needs to prove himself for a half season in AAA. The rest of the prospects all seem slated for either AA or AAA to get more time in the minors. I’m intrigued by Morales’ potential … but the team has basically bought itself enough 1B/DH cover that it seems unlikely for him to break camp.

Thoughts?

Here’s a quick overview of the Nats 2025 IFA class. Yesterday they signed 14 international players (6 from the Dominican Republic, another 8 from Venezuela) and sprinkled out bonuses of at least 300k to seven different guys.

Here’s a few Quick Observations, since there’s obviously limitations as to what we “know” about a bunch of teen-agers in central and south America.

2025 is a lower risk/spread the wealth bonus pool dollar year for the team

The Nats over the last decade have vacillated between high risk and low risk IFA classes, choosing in some years to put all their (bonus money) eggs in one basket and in other years to spread around the wealth.

• All in on 1-2 player classes: 2024, 2022, 2021, 2016
• Spread the Wealth classes: 2025, 2023, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2015

2025 seems to be a “spread the wealth” year, with seven announced players netting signing bonuses above $300k.

Their large bonus pool has allowed them to spread the wealth AND give out a big bonus

They’ve taken some big swings in terms of dollar amounts since Rizzo arrived: some of their biggest signing bonuses being:

• 2024: Hurtado, Victor at $2.8M
• 2022: Vaquero, Cristhian at $4.9M
• 2021: Cruz, Armando at $3.9M
• 2016: Antuna, Yasel# at $3.9M

This year’s $1.9M given to Cortesia, Brayan will be the 5th highest bonus since the Juan Soto class in 2015. But, given the four figures above and the relative “success” we’ve seen out of them … it may be considered a bargain.

Would anyone here say that their four big swings listed above have panned out? We’ve litigated Antuna to death, but right now Cruz, Vaquero, and Hurtado are not exactly trending positive. Hurtado hit just .218 in the DSL last year, Vaquero hit .190 in Low-A last year, and Cruz hit .224 mostly in low-A and isn’t even on MLBPipeline’s top 30 prospects for us anymore.

Trivia question: who’s the best Nats-selected/home grown IFA prospect in our system? Probably Andry Lara.

The Class is very Hitter-heavy

Not one of their seven big money guys is a pitcher. Among the 7, we have two Catchers, two SS, one 2B, and two OF. So, it sounds like they’re going to run it back with a lot of the DSL arms there now, most of whom are already 19-20. We’ll have to keep that in mind if we suddenly see a 20yr old starter blowing away 16-17yr olds in the DSL.

The Class is a bit old

There’s just one guy who’s 16 as of the signing date. Most of the class is 17 now and will turn 18 soon after the end of the 2015 season. One guy they signed (RHP Juan Lopez) is already 19; will he even go to the DSL?

They Still have some room in the pool

The known/announced bonus amounts total about $4.9M spread across seven guys. They announced another 7 signees. Usually if a bonus amount is not listed for an IFA, its a standard $10k. If we assume that figure for the remaining seven, then the Nats are leaving about $1.2M on the table right now. Perhaps that’s funds for later IFA signings who might pop up (they have signed IFAs outside of the Jan 15th window in the past), or perhaps the seven remaining all got 6-figure deals that eat into that remainder.

Remember: only half of these guys will ever even get to the US

Here’s a few quick stats on our recent IFA classes. Now, given that this is “early” for the more recent classes, but here’s quick stats on the size of the class and the number of players who moved domestically:

• 2024: 24 players in class, 0 moved domestically, 5 released
• 2023: 23/9/5
• 2022: 20/11/9
• 2021: 20/10/11
• 2020: 3/0/3
• 2019: 21/9/12

So, as you can see, we see roughly half these guys get released right out of the DSL, with the other half making it to the FCL. From there, usually a handful make their way up the chain a little bit, but many of them stall at the Low-A juncture, where they’re forced to go out in the world and travel for the first time.

Our IFA Tracker and the Nats big Board are now updated

Click here for the Nats IFA tracker where I’ve filled in the 2025 class.

Click here for the Nats Big Board, where i’ve put all the 2025 IFA signees into the XST section for now. Odds are they’ll all go to the DSL, but I don’t want to do that assignment until its officially announced.

Lastly, here’s some useful other links for you to peruse, if you’re interested in the IFA 2025 numbers and class:

• Bonus pools for 2025 IFA season: we were at $6.1M
• BA class overview of top prospects: we signed three in the top 100 in Brayan Cortesia, Daniel Hernandez, and Rony Bello.
• BA’s 1/15/25 top players with scouting reports.
• BA’s Jan 15 class signing tracker:
• BA’s International bonus board
• Nats 2025 class introduction story at nationals.com

The first shop to try to do a major rank of Nationals prospects (Prospects1500) has dropped its rankings for our system. Let’s walk through their ranks and I’ll add some comments.

I have a draft 2025 ranking for our system that (believe it or not) goes out to 90 or so guys, which is kind of ridiculous when we currently (according to the Big Board) have 150 signed minor leaguers domestically. But, even given that my draft list is 90 deep, Prospects1500 still managed to rank three players that I don’t have in my top 90, and who have been ranked for the very first time on any list. We’ll get to them later, and discuss whether they should have even been ranked.

Here’s the top 50 for Prospects1500 in a quick table format:

Rank	Last Name	First Name	Position
1	Crews	Dylan	OF (CF)
2	House	Brady	SS/3B
3	Sykora	Travis	RHP (Starter)
4	King	Seaver	SS
5	Susana	Jarlin	RHP (Starter)
6	Morales	Yohandy	3B
7	Clemmey	Alex	LHP (Starter)
8	Hassell III	Robert	OF (CF)
9	Cavalli	Cade	RHP (Starter)
10	Lile	Daylen	OF (CF)
11	Wallace	Cayden	3B
12	Lomavita	Caleb	C
13	Hurtado	Victor	OF
14	Stuart	Tyler	RHP (Starter)
15	Green	Elijah	OF (CF)
16	Lara	Andry	RHP (Starter)
17	Dickerson	Luke	SS/CF
18	Vaquero	Cristian	OF (CF)
19	Bennett	Jake	LHP (Starter)
20	Pinckney	Andrew	OF (Corner)
21	Feliz	Angel	3B/SS
22	Made	Kevin	SS
23	Ramirez Jr.	Rafael	SS
24	Rutledge	Jackson	RHP (Starter)
25	Lord	Brad	RHP (Starter)
26	Bazzell	Kevin	C/3B
27	Reifert	Evan	RHP (Reliever)
28	Feliz	Jose	RHP (Starter)
29	Baker	Darren	2B
30	Brzykcy	Zach	RHP (Reliever)
31	Ribalta	Orlando	RHP (reliever)
32	Cruz	Armando	SS
33	Grissom	Marquis	RHP (Reliever)
34	De La Rosa	Jeremy	OF (Corner)
35	Millas	Drew	C
36	White	T.J.	OF (Corner)
37	Kent	Jackson	LHP (Starter)
38	Shuman	Seth	RHP (Starter)
39	Alvarez	Andrew	LHP (Starter)
40	Acosta	Daison	RHP (reliever)
41	Cox	Brenner	OF (CF)
42	Jones	Sir Jamison	CA
43	Choi	Hyun-Il	RHP (Starter)
44	Glasser	Phillips	SS
45	Mota	Jorgelys	SS
46	Cooper	Everett	SS
47	Chapparo	Andres	1B/DH
48	Quintana	Roismar	1B/OF
49	Narango	Joe	1B
50	Pimentel	Brandon	1B

Now, lets do some reactions.

• Their top 5 for our system is essentially the same as every other shop’s top 5, in some order or another. You can quibble with House/Sykora for #2.
• The first bogey; Morales comes in at #6. They’re putting a ton of weight on his AA finish last year. He hit .206 in April but then .357 in September in the same league. I still think this is too high; if he’s 1B only I need to see more homers (just 7 in 435 ABs so far professionally).
• They like Daylen Lile slightly more than me, but so does everyone. Every scouting report I see on this guy says he’s a great contact hitter and a great base-runner. So, where’s the stats? Career .262 batting average (that’s elite bat-to-ball skills?) and just 50 Sbs 255 career games? A .351 OBP for his career? What am I missing here? What makes him any better than Jake Alu (career minor league slash line of .282/.342/.437 with 57 SBs in 420 minor league games, but with more power). I see a 5th OF ceiling. He’s only 22 and in AA, fair point, but he’s also going to be rule-5 eligible after 2025. Based on what you’ve seen, would you protect him right now?
• Victor Hurtado at #13. I’m at least 10 spots lower on this guy right now, and I wonder if they’re looking at the same guy I am. Their line in the link is, “Hurtado is very young but performed well in the Rookie league and has solid tools across the board. He’s one to keep an eye on in this tier.” Uh; “performed well?” He hit .218 in the DSL this season, with almost no speed, no power, and a 2/1 K/BB ratio. Did anyone check this guy’s stats before they wrote that line? Where’s the ranking for the DSL guys who actually hit this year? Missing, that’s where. We’ll get to that at the bottom when we talk about players not in their top 50.
• They’re lower on Andry Lara than they should be. Quote: “ Lara was a highly touted international signing whose results haven’t matched the ability in his four years with the organization.” Um, again, what are these guys watching? Lara, as a 22yr old, got promoted to AA after a month, then had a 3.63 ERA in 19 starts. Yes, in the macro his minor league stats don’t look that great … but year after year he’s been in leagues where he was among the youngest players there, pitchers or hitters. I’ve got Lara well inside our top 10, not buried in the teens.
• They’re a little higher on Vaquero (18) and Bennett (19) than I am. I’m just not impressed with the size of your signing bonus versus your on-the-field accomplishments. As for Bennett, maybe it isn’t fair to ding him for TJ, but after what we’ve seen from Cavalli, i’m gun shy for sure.
• Kevin Made: this guy seems to be a favorite of prospect hounds everywhere. I don’t see it. I see a guy who has no power and little speed who was the “flier prospect guy” in a deadline deal trade. I’ve got him ranked in the 30s, not just outside the top 20.
• Rutledge and Lord: a tale of two approaches. I see Lord as someone who is still proving in AAA they can be an effective starter, while Rutledge is proving he’s a 2-pitch guy who needs to be a reliever. One of these profiles has much more value than the other: can you guess which one? As a result, i’ve got Lord in the mid-teens and Rutledge outside the top 30 on my rankings, not ranked side by side like this shop.
• They’re not fans of Bazzell at all: MLBpipeline has him #14 in the system.
• Brzycky and Ribalta: i’ve said my peace on ranking relievers. I won’t rank a middle reliever in my top 30 anymore. Even the better middle relievers in our bullpen are barely worth half a win a season, and the best of them (Law and Florio last year) were in the 1.6-1.9 range). It’s far more likely we call up these two guys, they get shelled, they go back down, and they ahve negative bWAR (that describes precisely what all of these guys did in 2024: Adon, Weems, Barnes, Brzycky, Ribalta, and Willingham).

At this point we’re in the 30-50 range, so it’s a little harder to be critical, so I’ll just highlight guys that I think they’re way off on.

• Jeremy De la Rosa at #34: he hit .167 in High-A … then got promoted to AA where he hit .161. He’s now spent parts of 3 seasons in Wilmington and has not been competent. Is he a prospect at all? I mean, they have him above Millas, who a lot of readers right now think should be the backup MLB catcher. I’ve got De la Rosa 30 spots lower in my ranks.
• TJ White: see comments about De la Rosa above for the most part.
• Jackson Kent was ranked #24 by MLBpipeline but 37 by these guys; a season on the field should resolve this.
• They have little faith in Andrew Alvarez.
• They still have Brennar Cox ranked, which seems crazy at this point. Exhibit 1-A on the risks of drafting HS kids.
• Thus, its fitting that they have Sir Jamison Jones at #42, right below Cox. Another prep Catcher who could be decent, could go nowhere. What’s odd is, they put Jones in their top 50 but not a couple of DR prospects who actually hit this year (Dashyll Tejeda and Carlos Tavares). I did not have Jones in my top 90, perhaps an oversight.
• Then, perhaps the oddest rankings on their list: #49 and #50 are two 1B only guys in Naranjo and Pimentel, a MLFA and NDFA. Naranjo hit .208 in Wilmington for us in 2024. Pimentel hit .274 in Fredericksburg … as a 24-yr old man amongst kids. I didn’t have either of these guys in my top 90, but i’ve put them in the 70+ range for now.

Who’s missing?

• As mentioned above, a couple of DSL decent performers for 2024
• Cole Henry: probably not a surprise.
• No Nasim Nunez, who b-r.com has exhausting his rookie status in 2024. By service time, not by PAs. If you wanted to quibble and be like some shops that ignore service time and go by PAs/IPs, i’d have Nunez in the mid 40s.
• Not much else to mention; there’s some names outside their top 50 that have gotten a bit of prospect love in the past (Peterson, Cabrera, Brown, Saenz, etc) who don’t really merit it anymore.

That’s the first big prospect rank. What do you think?

Here’s a complete history of my predicted Rule-5 additions (with links to each prediction piece), along with the Actual players the team protected (with links as well), to show my (lack of) predictive powers. It’s updated for 2024 and has narratives about each class and how the players turned out later on with updates for the last year of performance.

• 2024: Predicted: Lara, Hassell, maybes on Alvarez, Cronin. Actual: Lara, Hassell
• 2023: Predicted: Parker, Lara, and Herz (maybe on Henry) Actual: Parker, Herz, Henry, and Brzycky.
• 2022: Predicted: Cronin, maybes on Alu, Millas, Rutledge, Ferrer. Actual:  Cronin, Alu, De La Rosa, Rutledge, Ferrer, Irvin.
• 2021: Predicted Cate, Casey. Actual: Casey and Lee.
• 2020: Predicted Pineda, Adon. Actual Adon, Antuna.
• 2019: Predicted Braymer, Sharp.  Actual: just Braymer.  And…. Sharp got picked in the Rule-5 draft by Miami.
• 2018: Predicted: Bourque, Mills, Istler.  Actual: just Bourque.
• 2017: Predicted: Gutierrez, Gushue, Ward, Baez.  Actual: Gutierrez and Jefry Rodriguez.
• 2016: Predicted Voth, Bautista.  Actual: Voth, Bautista, Marmolejos, Read and Skole.
• 2015: Predicted Kieboom, Bostick, Marmolejos-Diaz.  Actual: Kieboom, Bostick, Lee
• 2014: Predicted Cole, Skole, Goodwin.  Hedged on Grace, Martin and Difo.  Actual: Cole, Goodwin, Difo, Grace.
• 2013: Predicted Solis as the only lock.  Possibles mentioned in order Barrett, Taylor, Grace, Holland.  Actual: Solis, Barrett, Taylor.
• 2012: Predicted Karns and McCoy, with Hood and Rosenbaum as maybes.  Actual: Karns and Davis.  I think we were all surprised by Davis’ inclusion, despite his good AA numbers that year.
• 2011: Predicted Norris as a lock, guessed strongly on Moore, Meyers and Komatsu.  Actual: Norris, Moore, Solano, Perez.    This was poor analysis on my part; I did not consider the IFAs newly eligible.
• 2010: Predicted Marrero, Meyers and Mandel.  Actual: Marrero, Carr and Kimball.
• 2009: pre-dates my blog and thus no predictions, but Actual was Jaime, Thompson and Severino.
• 2008: I might be wrong, but I don’t see any evidence of the team protecting *anyone* prior to the Rule-5 draft.  A bit of an indictment of the farm system at the time, I’d say 🙂

How many of the above players who were added to “save” them from the Rule-5 draft actually turned into impactful players for the Nationals? Lets work backwards:

• 2024: Lara, Hassell. Too Early. check back next year.
• 2023: Parker, Herz, Henry, and Brzycky. The fact that we got two MLB SPs the next year makes this the greatest Nats Rule5 draft ever, by a sizeable margin. A huge portion of these guys sit on the 40-man for 2-3 years, stalled out in the minors. Parker got called up to cover for Grey and did spectacularly, giving the team 29 starts at a 94 ERA+ figure. Herz did something similar, coming up to cover for Williams and giving the team 19 starts with a 97 ERA+ figure. Both were fantastic rule-5 additions and are solid candidates for the rotation for years to come. Meanwhile, Brzycky came back from injury and pitched his way up to AAA, but curiously his K/9 is way down. Maybe he’s not 100%. lastly Henry pitched just 15 innings before going back to the season-long DL, and he is looking like a possible lost cause to his shoulder injury. One is hopeful, but it’s not looking good for Henry.
• 2022: Cronin, Alu, De La Rosa, Rutledge, Ferrer, Irvin. Some good, some bad so far out of this crew. The Good: Irvin spent most of 2023 and all of 2024 in the MLB rotation, and looks like he’s improving. Ferrer has turned into a critical bullpen arm and spent all of 2023 and 2024 contributing. The replacement level: Rutledge pitched great all year in 2023 to rocket up the system and even get some MLB cycles, but has tanked as a starter all year in 2024 and may need to convert to relief. Alu looked ok as a bench guy in the MLB, but went back down and got outrighted back to AAA, where he’s now just an org guy. Cronin got DFA’d rather quickly, but had really solid 2024 stats. He may be a change-of-scenery guy. The bad: De La Rosa did little, was probably way too young to protect, and has now been outrighted right back off the 40-man.
• 2021: Casey and Lee: Casey was DFA’d mid 2022, outrighted, then demoted to AA for most of 2023 before hitting MLFA. He never once played in the majors for us. Lee got hurt in 2022, made a few starts in AA, got outrighted (ironically to make room for the 2022 Rule5 guys) then was converted to relief for 2023 where he struggled badly in 2023. He was a bad rule5 protection selection; someone who was “good” for a brief second and had crazy K/9 numbers but who couldn’t come close to sustaining it at the higher levels of the minors.
• 2020: Adon, Antuna: Adon toiled in the lower minors for most of 2021, made it to the majors for a spot start and looked solid. His performance since? Absolutely abhorrent: 1-12 with a 7.10 ERA in 2022 before mercifully being sent down. 2023 was not much better. His final option year in 2024? Another 7+ ERA year in AAA. Meanwhile, Antuna was a disaster, had to move off of SS and hit .230 in High-A with none of the power he’d need to present with his move to a corner OF position. The team seems to be clinging to the guy simply based on his massive IFA signing bonus. Finally at the end of 2023 he hit MLFA; final career minor league totals: .224/.326/.675 and the only level where he even came close to an .800 was rookie ball.
• 2019: Braymer; got DFA’d mid-season 2021 and outrighted after struggling in both seasons. Never amounted to much after that.
• 2018: Bourque: got shelled in AAA in 2019, waived in 2020, then left the team as a MLFA.
• 2017: Gutierrez, Jefry Rodriguez. Gutierrez never really did anything for us and was traded to KC in the Kelvin Herrera deal. Rodriguez threw a bunch of mediocre starts and was flipped to Cleveland in the Yan Gomes deal; he’s now back with us as a MLFA for 2022.
• 2016: Voth, Bautista, Marmolejos, Read and Skole. A ton of guys; anyone impactful? Voth has competed for the 5th starter job for years but has a career 83 ERA+ and was waived; he then went on to Baltimore to succeed, a pretty black mark for this team’s usage of him (since Baltimore ins’t exactly known for being a pitching development team). Bautista never did much for us: 33 career MLB plate appearances. Read had a PED suspension and a handful of MLB games. Marmolejos was a 1B-only guy who showed some gap power in AA but never above it. Skole was inexplicably protected as an age 26 corner infield guy whose profile seemed to mirror dozens of veteran free agents readily available on the market; he hit .222 in 2017 and then hit MLFA.
• 2015: Kieboom, Bostick, Lee: This was Spencer Kieboom, the catcher, not his younger brother Carter. S.Kieboom was a AAA catcher who was worth protecting but he played just a handful of games in his MLB career. Chris Bostick didn’t last the full 2016 season before being DFA’d. Nick Lee lasted even less, getting DFA’d in July.
• 2014: Cole, Goodwin, Difo, Grace. All four players ended up playing in the majors for various lengths … but all four were role players for this team. AJ Cole was tried out as a 5th starter season after season, finally flipped to the Yankees when he ran out of options. Goodwin was another guy who couldn’t seem to break our outfield, but who has had spells of starting with some success elsewhere. Difo was our backup IF for years, and Matt Grace pitched in the Washington bullpen for years before getting outrighted and leaving via MLFA in 2019.
• 2013: Solis, Barrett, Taylor. Sammy was good until he wasn’t, and his time with the 2018 Nats was his last. Barrett remains with the team after multiple surgeries, but is a MLFA this off-season and may be forced into retirement after so many injuries. Michael A. Taylor is an interesting one; he had a 2.7 bWAR season for the Nats in 2017, nearly a 20/20 season when he finally got full time playing time in CF. He won a Gold Glove this year for Kansas City, one season after we DFA’d him because we all thought Victor Robles was a better option.
• 2012: Karns and Davis.  Karns had one good year as a starter in the majors … for Tampa. Career bWAR: 3.0. Davis pitched a little for the team in 2013, then got hurt, then never made it back to the majors.
• 2011: Norris, Moore, Solano, Perez.  This was a big year; Norris was a big part of the Gio Gonzalez trade and made the all star team in 2014 for Oakland, but didn’t play much afterwards. Tyler Moore was great in his first year as our backup 1B/bench bat type, but never replicated his 2012 season. Jhonathan Solano was always our 3rd catcher and saw sparing duty until he got cut loose. Eury Perez played in just a handful of games for us before getting DFA’d and claimed by the Yankees in Sept 2014.
• 2010: Marrero, Carr and Kimball. Marrero was a 1st rounder who “had” to get protected to protect the team’s investiment; he just never could get above AAA. Adam Carr and Cole Kimball were both relievers who looked promising after their 2010 minor league seasons but did relatively little afterwards: Cole never made the majors, while Kimball hurt his shoulder and never recovered.
• 2009: Jaime, Thompson and Severino. three pitchers, none of whom did much. Jaime was a 2004 IFA who has a grand total of 13 MLB innings. Thompson was waived a year after being protected. Severino got a cup of coffee in 2011 then hit MLFA.
• 2008: Nobody added. Not one eligible pick or signing from the 2004/2005 draft was considered worthy of protecting.

Conclusion: So, after more than a decade of rule-5 additions, who would you say is the most impactful player we’ve ever added? Candidates:

• Brian Goodwin: career bWAR for the Nats: 0.0 (across 3 seasons)
• Michael A. Taylor: career bWAR for the Nats: 3.5 across 7 seasons, with one 2.7 win season
• Sammy Solis: career bWAR for Nats: 0.2 across 4 seasons
• Jake Irvin: career bWAR: 3.0 for 2023 and 2024
• Mitchell Parker: bWAR of 0.7 for 2024
• DJ Herz: bWAR of 0.7 for 2024

I’m tempted to say Irvin despite having slightly less bWAR than Taylor, if only because I expect Taylor to be a rotation guy for us for several more years.