Nationals Arm Race

We finally get the last major pundit chiming in on the state of our system’s prospects, on this 24th day of April 2026. Eric Longenhagen and his Fangraphs crew have published their top 41 for the system. They are the last of the major pundits I track (Baseball America, MLBpipeline, Keith Law, Kiley McDaniel) plus more fringe prospect shops (Prospects1500, Prospects361, ProspectsLive, and BaseballProspectus, which hides everything behind a paywall i’m not willing to buy).

With this data, we have a complete set of “pre-2026 season” rankings for the system, and I will now work on my own such ranking. I published a top 125 at the end of last season, which had a few players ranked wildly out of place in retrospect, plus we’ve added at least 14 prospects who will feature in the top 50 or so and have released/traded at least 8-10 others who I ranked at the time, so I’ll work on a re-rank and see where things land. Ranking 125 guys out of a system that has 165 players domestically and another 30-40 in the DSL, 95% of whom won’t ever even get to Florida, may seem like a fools errand, but hey, this is what we do 🙂

Here’s the Fangraphs top 41 for our system, which seems like an odd number but is driven by the total number of our prospects who Longenhagen determines to have a Future Value (FV) of 35+ or more (FV runs on the typical scouting 20-80 scale, and anyone 50 or above is projected to be at least an “Average Everyday Player.” We’re projected to have just five of these players out of this top 41, which may temper your opinion of the system).

Fangraphs	First Name	Last Name	Position
1	Eli	Willits	SS
2	Jarlin	Susana	RHP (Starter)
3	Harry	Ford	C
4	Ronny	Cruz	SS
5	Travis	Sykora	RHP (Starter)
6	Alejandro	Rosario	RHP
7	Landon	Harmon	RHP (Starter)
8	Miguel	Sime Jr.	RHP (Starter)
9	Jackson	Kent	LHP (Starter)
10	Devin	Fitz-Gerald	SS
11	Davian	Garcia	RHP (Starter)
12	Luis	Perales	RHP (Starter)
13	Luke	Dickerson	SS/CF
14	Gavin	Fein	SS
15	Yoel	Tejeda Jr.	RHP (Starter)
16	Nauris	De La Cruz	OF (Corner)
17	Isalas	Suarez	OF (CF)
18	Samil	Serrano	OF (Corner)
19	Alex	Clemmey	LHP (Starter)
20	Abimelec	Ortiz	1B/OF (Corner)
21	Ethan	Petry	1B/OF (Corner)
22	Riley	Cornelio	RHP (Starter)
23	Sir Jamison	Jones	C
24	Caleb	Lomavita	C
25	Seaver	King	SS
26	Coy	James	SS
27	Marconi	German	SS
28	Eriq	Swan	RHP (Starter)
29	Christian	Franklin	OF (CF)
30	Yeremy	Cabrera	OF (corner)
31	R.J.	Sales	RHP (Starter)
32	Josh	Randall	RHP (Starter)
33	Andry	Lara	RHP (Starter)
34	Jorgelys	Mota	SS
35	Angel	Ramirez	OF (Corner)
36	Kevin	Bazzell	C
37	Angel	Feliz	SS/3B
38	Brayan	Cortesia	SS
39	Daniel	Hernandez	C
40	Jose	Feliz	RHP (Starter)
41	Sam	Brown	OF (Corner)

Phew. There’s a lot to talk about here. I’d say at least a third of these players are ranked completely at odds with the entire rest of the industry. So, how did we get here, and what does it mean? Well, Longenhagen’s FV driven rankings is almost entirely about Ceiling, so you’re going to see teenagers who are performing ranked well higher in his methodology than you might see elsewhere, where pundits take a more balanced floor/ceiling/age approach. I’ll call out the outliers as we go.

• 1-2-3 Willits-Susana-Ford is mostly unassailable. You can quibble about not having Sykora higher, but basically every other shop has the exact same top 5 right now (these 3 plus Sykora and Fein).
• Ronny Cruz at #4. that’s crazy high; most others have him in the mid 20s if at all. Prophetic? he’s already been promoted to High-A at age 19 and showed up there and hit 2 more homers in his first three games, likely pushing Angel Feliz off Short for now.
• Rosario at #6 is also well above where anyone else has him, and I really don’t get this ranking. He didn’t pitch in 2023 after getting drafted. Sure, he looked awesome in his 2024 pro debut as he should have; he was a 3-year starter in Miami’s rotation pitching in A-ball. The problem is this: he missed all of 2025 with injury, gets traded, and THEN gets Tommy John. So he’ll miss all of 2026 and may not be ready for 2027. How is that possibly the 6th best prospect in our system? He’s going to be Rule-5 eligible this coming December with a grand total of 88 pro innings!
• He’s got Sime way higher than others, but from what we’ve seen so far in Fredericksburg this may be warranted (23 Ks in 11 innings). Sime sits right behind Harmon, who has also come out of the gate shining for F-burg.
• Jackson Kent at #9. Ok, so I like Kent, and I think his numbers aren’t flattering his capabilities so far, but top 10 in the system? For a command and control lefty? Seems high.
• He’s clearly high man on Davian Garcia at #11, who surprisingly made the AA rotation to start 2026 after barely pitching in Wilmington. Maybe there’s something to Longenhagen’s madness.
• He loves Sir Jamison Jones … who has been kind of forgotten with the Willits draft, all the other HS guys pouring in, and all the trade acquisitions. But he’s holding down the fort as starting Catcher in Low-A with all these other teenagers, which must make for a fun time on the bus rides.
• He’s got two 2026 IFA signings in his top 20 (Suarez and Serrano). Hard to pass judgement here, other than to say that Longenhagen is probably the most plugged-in guy to the DR scene.

We’ve talked about nothing but elevated prospects so far. Well, for all the guys above who are super high, there had to be guys who got knocked down.

• Gavin Fein; Top 5 on every other board and as high as #2 on Keith Law’s board … is #14 here. Interesting. He struggled in his pro debut last year, got traded, then immediately got hurt for us, with little idea of how bad it is. We know he had off-season surgery on a bone spur, which can explain his pro debut crummy numbers; is this a follow-on injury? Nobody knows.
• Alex Clemmey: What the heck is he doing at #18? Ok, so no he can’t find the plate right now, but he’s a 20yr old in AA for the second year in a row. If he was in High-A right now with a 2.47 ERA like he had last year, he’d likely be top 5. You can’t punish a guy for punching way above his weight class and not putting up sub 2.00 numbers.
• He’s a bit low on Ethan Petry, likely thinking he’s a 1B-limited bat. Fair enough. He’ll hit until he doesn’t. There’s nobody blocking his path in AA in the “1B-corner OF” realm from a top-end prospect perspective with a MLFA, a Rule-5 draftee, and a minor trade acquisition starting at 1B, LF, and DH respectively.
• Here’s where things get weird: Seaver King is at #25. Ok, that just seems ridiculous. Even if you thought he was over rated via his 2025 season … we’re still talking about a 1st round pick who is a starting SS in AA with solid numbers.
• Angel Feliz is way down at #37, nearly out of his rankings, despite mostly being an upper teen in other places. I wonder what Eric sees here.

Ranking to 41 should capture every name one could think of … but there’s some curious omissions here:

• Yohandy Morales: totally missing. Which we’re starting to see more and more of, as some believe he may be in the Andrew Pinckney camp of stalled AAA players who couldn’t even turn themselves into 4-A taxi squad guys.
• Sam Peterson; completely missing as well, and a bit more shocking. This is a guy who was top 10 in other lists, a true CF with power and speed. Not sure what we’re missing here.
• No love for our POTY Glasser, but no surprise either.
• Previous Bonus babies like Hurtado and Vaquero have dropped out.
• Shockingly, no Elijah Green. (kidding).

Conclusion: Interesting list here. It made me question some of the spots i’ve got players ranked at in my current top 100 and something draft rankings spreadsheet. I may have to go back to the drawing board.

One of these random files I have maintained since 2005 is a history of our Opening days. Now that we’ve had both our opening day on the road and our 2026 home Opener, here’s that data updated for 2026.

Home Opener Attendance and Weather through the years

The weather for 2026’s home opener was solid: 62 and partly cloudy is a heck of a lot better t han it has been in the past. 2011? 41, overcast, windy. 2022 a 4+ hour delay, 52 and rainy.

I think the best weather we ever had for a home opener may have been the infamous Philly invasion: 1pm 80-degree and sunny day. Too bad it was ruined by so many South Jersey bros who had been drinking for 3 hours by the time they got to the stadium.

• 2026: 41,161 (2:45 fri game, 62, partly cloudy)
• 2025: 41,231 (4:05 thurs game, 57, sunny, slight wind)
• 2024: 40,405 (4:05 tues game, 53, cloudy, slight wind)
• 2023: 35,756 (105 thurs game, 45 degrees and sunny)
• 2022: 35,052 (7:05 thurs game (pushed back from 4:05, then delayed to 8:21 weather. 52 degrees, cloudy, rainy)
• 2021: 4,801 (4:05 tuesday game, 74 degrees, partly cloudy, 5mph wind)
• 2020: 0 (7:09 thurs game, 90, partly cloudy, 7mph wind)
• 2019: 42,263 (1:07 thurs game, 56, partly cloudy, no wind)
• 2018: 42,477 (1:08 thurs game, 42, partly cloudy, slight wind)
• 2017: 42,744 (1:05 monday game, 66 and cloudy, slight wind)
• 2016: 41,650 (4:05 thursday game, 60 and 1.5hr rain delay)
• 2015: 42,295 (4:05 monday game, 75 and gorgeous)
• 2014: 42,834 (1:05 friday game, 50s and overcast)
• 2013: 45,274 (1:05 monday game, 60 and beautiful)
• 2012: 40,907 (1:05 thursday game 56, partly cloudy)
• 2011: 39,055 (1:05 thursday game, 41 degrees and overcast)
• 2010: 41,290 (1pm game monday, beautiful weather 80s and sunny): This was Phillies Invasaion
• 2009: 40,386 (3pm game on a monday, chilly 53degr and overcast).
• 2008: 39,389 (season and stadium opener), 8pm sunday night, Braves, nat’l tv clear but cold.
• 2007: 40,389 (in rfk, 1pm game vs Florida, 72 degrees
• 2006: 40,516 (in rfk, tuesday day game vs Mets, 72 degr and sunny)
• 2005: 45,596 (in rfk, debut of entire franchise, 62 degr and clear, evening game).

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Home opener Results and Box Scores

The Nats are just 6-16 all time through 2026 in their home openers, a pretty interesting stat given that for most of the 2010s they were one of the best teams in the sport.

• 2026: L Dodgers d Nats 13-6
• 2025: L Phillies d Nats 7-3
• 2024: L Pirates d Nats 8-4
• 2023: L Braves d Nats 7-2
• 2022: L Mets d Nats 5-1
• 2021: W Nats d Braves 6-5
• 2020: L Yankees d Nats 4-1
• 2019: L Mets d Nats 2-0
• 2018: L Mets d Nats 8-2
• 2017: W Nats d Marlins 4-2
• 2016: L Marlins d Nats 6-4
• 2015: L Mets d Nats 3-1
• 2014: L Braves d Nats 2-1
• 2013: W Nats d Marlins 2-0
• 2012: W Nats d Reds 2-0
• 2011: L Braves d Nats 2-0
• 2010: L Phillies d Nats 11-1
• 2009: L Phillies d Nats 9-8
• 2008: W Nats d Braves 3-2
• 2007: L Marlins d Nats 9-2
• 2006: L Mets d Nats 7-1
• 2005: W Nats d Diamondbacks 5-3

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Nats Season Openers.
We are slightly better in Season openers: Record: 9-13. We’ve been home 13 times, away 9 times.

• 2026: Away: Nats d Cubs 10-4. WP Lord, LP Boyd (Starters Cavalli, Boyd).
• 2025: Home: Phillies d Nats 7-3, WP Alvarado, LP Poche (Starters: MaKenzie, Wheeler)
• 2024: Away: Reds d Nats 8-2. WP: Montas. LP Grey (Starters: Grey, Montes).
• 2023: Home: Braves d Nationals 7-2. WP: Luetge, LP Corbin (starters: Fried, Corbin):
• 2022: Home: Mets d Nationals 5-1. WP: Megill, LP Corbin (starters same):
• 2021: Home: Nationals d Braves 6-5. WP: Hudson, LP Smith (starters Scherzer v Smyly):
• 2020: Home: Yankees d Nationals 4-1. WP: Cole, LP Scherzer (starters same):
• 2019: Home: Mets d Nationals 2-0. WP: deGrom, LP Scherzer (starters same):
• 2018: Away: Nats d Reds 2-0. WP Scherzer, LP Bailey (starters same):
• 2017: home: Nats d Marlins 4-2. WP Strasburg, LP Phelps (Starters Strasburg, Volquez):
• 2016: away: Nats d Braves 4-3. WP Treinen, LP O’Flarity (starters Scherzer, Teheran):
• 2015: home: Mets d Nats 3-1. WP: Bartolo Colon. LP: Max Scherzer
• 2014: away: Nats d Mets 9-7. WP Aaron Barrett, LP Familia (starters Strasburg, dillon Gee):
• 2013: home: Nats d Marlins 2-0. WP: Stephen Strasburg. LP: Ricky Nolasco.
• 2012: away: Nats d Cubs 2-1. WP Clippard, LP Marmol (starters: Strasburg and Ryan Dempster):
• 2011: home: Braves d Nats 2-0. WP: Derek Lowe. LP: Livan Hernandez.
• 2010: home: Phillies d Nats 11-1. WP: Roy Halladay. LP: John Lannan
• 2009: away: Marlins d Nats 12-6. WP: Nolasco, LP; Lannan
• 2008: home: Nats d Braves 3-2. WP: Rauch. LP: Moylan (Starters: Tim Hudson and Odalis Perez)
• 2007: home: Marlins d Nats 9-2. WP: Dontrelle Willis. LP: John Patterson
• 2006: away: Mets d Nats 3-2. WP: Glavine, LP: Hernandez.
• 2005: away: Phillies d Nats 8-4. WP: Lieber, LP: Hernandez.

Now that the 2026 Opening Day is past us, and I’ve updated my internal spreadsheet that tracks Opening Day starters over the years, which lets me bring you the following useless Trivia realted to Opening Day starters.

Here’s a link to my Opening day starter xls, which is also updated along the right hand side in the Links section. It is also worth noting that Baseball Reference of course maintains similar information. Here for example is the canonical opening day list of lineups (pitchers and players) for the Washington Nationals franchise. And here’s the list of all 30 teams’ opening day lineups for the 2025 season, with similar data for all past seasons). I can’t quite find a similar resource to just the starters across all 30 teams, but I’m sure it’s there somewhere, so I continue to maintain this XLS and the streak/trivia information.

Ok, that being said, here’s some useless trivia related to Opening Day Starters:

• First time Opening Day Starters for 20262: 13 of the 30 teams used first-time starters this year. That’s in line with the past few years (12 in 2025, 14 in 2024) and continues the trend of overall churn in starting pitching in the sport.
• Current Active Leader of Opening Day Starts: this remains the ageless Richmond-native Justin Verlander, with 12. He did 9 in Detroit, then another 3 in Houston. Clayton Kershaw was #2 but has now retired. Tied for 2nd now is Chris Sale (who extended his streak this year with Atlanta) and our former Ace Max Scherzer (who will slot into the back-end of Toronto’s rotation as he chases one more ring).
• Current Active Consecutive streak: Logan Webb, who made his 5th straight for San Francisco and was quickly bombed by the powerful Yankees lineup on the Netflix day before the real opening day nonsense that broke a ton of traditions.
• Current Leader of Consecutive Opening Day Starts: Verlander made 7 straight with Detroit; Webb is creeping up on him, and we have a slew of guys who just made their 3rd or 4th straight opening day starts … including Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, who seems like a great candidate to push for this record if/when he joins a new team.

Historical records:

• Most Opening Day Starts in History: Tom Seaver (16).  Tied for 2nd place with 14 is Jack Morris, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Walter Johnson
• Most Consecutive Opening Day Starts in History: Jack Morris; all 14 of his starts were in a row, Mr. Durability, and Mr. Hall of Famer thanks to the Veteran’s committee.

Nats Records:

• Max Scherzer is the Nats franchise leader in Opening day starts with 6. Do you think he’ll go into the Hall of Fame wearing a Nats hat? I tend to think so; he elevated himself to HoFame levels during his time in Washington.
• Strasburg is 2nd with four: he took the ball opening day in the 3 seasons before the Scherzer acquisition, then got it in 2017 mid Scherzer contract. Reminder: $35M of the Nats $92M opening payroll is going to Strasburg, who will get another $35M next year too in what may be the worst free agency contract ever handed out.
• Cade Cavalli becomes the 10th player in the Nats 22 year history to take the ball on opening day.
• Odalis Perez remains the most unlikely Opening Day starter, getting the ball in our bottoming-out year of 2008.

Lastly, here’s some interesting team observations for 2025’s Opening day Starters

• Cavalli is the 4th straight different Opening day starter we’ve had, not really a surprise to Nats fans who are watching the second straight reboot of the franchise. Cavalli seems likely to lead the line again though, since his competitors have either been traded (Gore) or are injured again (Grey) and our top starter prospects remain lower in the minors or hurt.
• Some teams have consistency, others are just all over the road. Cincinnati threw Virginia-born Andrew Abbot; he’s their 11th different opening day starter in 12 years.
• Other teams who can’t find a consistent ace: Tampa Bay (8 different guys in last 9 years),
• Texas had a crazy run where they used 15 different starters in the 16 years running from 2009 to 2024, but have now thrown Eovaldi 3 years’ running.

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Today 3/25/26, the Washington Nationals, a franchise in Major League Baseball purportedly worth more than $2 Billion dollars, rolled out the following opening day 26 man lineup.

• SP: Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, Littell, Irvin
• RP: Henry, Beeter, Poulin, Varland, Granillo, Waldichuk, CPerez, Lord,
• C: Ruiz, Millas
• INF: LGarcia, Abrams, House, Vivas, Nunez, Tena, Chapparo
• OF: Wood, Young, Lile, Weimer

By way of comparison, here’s 2025’s opening day 25-man roster.

• SP: Gore, Williams, Irvin, Soroka, Parker
• RP: Finnegan, Lopez, Sims, Ferrer, Poche, Salazar, Ribalta, Lord
• C: Ruiz, Adams,
• INF: Lowe, LGarcia, Abrams, DeJong, Tena, Rosario
• OF: Young, Wood, Crews, Call
• DH: Bell

So that’s 1 returning Starting Pitcher, 1 returning Reliever, 1 returning catcher, 3 returning infielders (against all odds since Tena should have been DFA’d the moment we acquired Vivas), and 2 returning outfielders. That’s just 8 of the 26 men who made it a year on the roster from this time last year, and probably half the roster that even the most experienced fan couldn’t pick out of a lineup.

Perhaps another way to look at it: acquisition method of this 26-man roster. Here’s a breakdown:

• Home grown players: 8: Garcia, House, Young, Lile, Henry, Cavalli, Irvin, Lord.
• Trade acquisitions: 9: Ruiz, Chapparo, Abrams, Wood, Beeter, Granillo, Millas, Tena, Vivas
• MLB FAs: 3: Griffin, Mikolas, Littell
• MLFAs: 1: Perez
• Waiver claims: 4: Weimer, Poulin, Varland, Waldichuk
• Rule5: 1 Nunez

On the one hand, yes it’s great that 17 of the 26 are either home grown or trade acquisitions, since for the most part these trade acquisitions were prospects when we got them. But 6 MLFA/Waiver/Rule5 guys is embarrassing. That’s 6 guys who weren’t worthy of being on some other team’s entire 40-man roster but who are now on our MLB active lineup..

Somehow, this roster is costing the team $92M in 26-man payroll … until you realize that figure includes Strasburg’s $35M annual salary still on the books (as well as Adam’s split contract $500k figure and Ogasawara’s $2M/year figure still owed despite his outright). So it’s actually closer to $58M to field this team … or about $25 less than what the official 30th ranked team (Miami) is spending. Wow.

So, hey Season Ticket Fans, welcome to 2026! Thanks for your checks last fall securing your seats; hope you enjoy the season.

So, we knew going in that 2026 was going to be another lost season. We could tell from the HS-heavy focus on players they drafted in June 2025, from the lack of any spending this off-season, and now by the increasingly curious moves they’re making in spring training.

And, honestly, I don’t entirely get what the team is doing.

The strategy should be simple: if you have no aims to compete, play the kids.

Instead, the team has endeavored to fill the MLB roster with veteran retreads. Instead of seeing if our younger arms like Parker, Lord, or Alvarez can prove out, or to let Josiah Grey get back to being his opening day starter self, we’re going to give starts to innings eaters like Mikolas, Griffen, and Littell.

Instead of having top-prospects like Crews and Hassell getting MLB at-bats, we’re going to apparently give the likes of Christian Franklin and waiver-claim Joey Wiemer those opportunities. We’re still claiming random middle infielders off other team’s waiver wires, and are quickly putting together a roster of randoms instead of a roster of home-growns. They did five waiver claims in a week and a half, then turned around and DFA’d most of them for other moves, making us (i’m sure) super popular reputation-wise in the player base.

What is this front office doing??

Are they planning on letting all these 30-something 1yr FAs showcase as trade bait in a few months? Is that what all of this is?

Because, I’ll tell you, the team this front office is putting on the field at the expense of home grown talent that the fan base actually knows, after years of trading away all their stars, is going to literally repel the casual fan. Who is going to look at the probable pitchers and say to themselves, “Oh man, we gotta go see 37yr old Miles Mikolas pitch today!”

What exactly does Crews or Hassell have left to prove in AAA? Or Alvarez, or Grey, or Parker? Eder is now 27; he NEEDS to be in the majors. They just optioned Fernandez: he’s 30. If he can’t cut it at this point, then just release him.

I dunno. This entire spring has been one small hint after another that this was the trend, but Crews’ demotion sealed it. There’s very little exciting to this MLB team this year, except maybe to see if Cavalli’s spring dominance can continue, or to see if House can turn the corner. Otherwise … it’s seemingly going to be a long year.

It’s been rumored all off-season, and now a few weeks before Pitchers and Catchers report, our biggest trade asset MacKenzie Gore has been traded. Announced last night, the Nats moved Gore to Texas for a package of 5 prospects.

Here’s a quick look at those 5 prospects, with their new Nats system rank and other pertinent information:

• shortstop Gavin Fien; 2025 1st rounder, Age 18. Our new #5 prospect (was Texas’ #2 prospect)
• right-hander Alejandro Rosario; 2023 college 5th rounder, Age 24, AA last year, new #11 prospect
• infielder Devin Fitz-Gerald: 2025 prep 5th rounder but over-slot bonus, age 20, new #12 prospect
• outfielder Yeremy Cabrera: 2022 IFA, just 20, our new #17 prospect
• first baseman/outfielder Abimelec Ortiz; 2021 NDFA, Age 3, on 40-man, hit AAA last year, new #24

First glance? I’m sorry, but is this all we could get? One 18yr old 1st rounder, two 20yr olds in low-A, a AA starter who missed all of 2025 AND just had TJ so he’s missing all of 2026 too, and a AAA utility guy? This is a major swing from a risk perspective, and the lack of additional higher-regarded prospects give me pause. The discovery (post publishing) that the 2nd best prospect is out for the entire 2026 season is even more demoralizing here.

I’m really disappointed with this return. We didn’t even get Texas’ best prospect in this deal. Maybe that’s me overvaluing Gore. On the one hand, Gore’s career numbers put him at a 98 ERA+. But at the same time, we’ve seen him be completely dominant for stretches. He’s valuable because he’s being paid a pittance for what he provides as a mid-rotation starter ($2.8M in first year Arb this year, $5.6M this year) and for 2 more years of control. He’s an innings eater who throws mid-90s from the left side; that’s worth a ton of the FA market and should have been worth more in trade.

When he didn’t go in the Winter Meetings, I thought the team should hold on to him until the Trade Deadline, when desperate teams who had lost starters to injury would be overpaying for mid-level starters. I was wrong; the new FO pulled the trigger on a deal they liked. I sense this was an underpay by Texas, but clearly the GM sees these younger guys and liked the deal.

An additional wrinkle: we’ve spoken before about the logjam of young shortstops projected to play in Fredericksburg in 2026 … well we just added two more guys who need playing time. We now add Fien and Fitz-Gerald to Willis, Feliz, Dickerson, and Mota, all of whom are likely projected to Low-A and who predominantly play SS.

What does this mean for the franchise? Insiders and those in the knew already knew this, but the signals have been strong that we’re on our way to bottoming out once again. My “casual Nats fan” pinged me last night with an immediate reaction to this trade, asking why we were getting rid of our best pitcher and I had to break it to him; we’re going to be bad for a while, so buckle up. This latter type of fan is the one who the Nats eventually will need to come back, to buy tickets, to bring the family for weekend games … but I sense a move like this, one which gets rid of one of the few players whose names they even know, is going to turn people off for a while.

I’m always excited to get more prospects into the system, as a prospect-heavy analysis site. Don’t get me wrong; can’t wait to do the spreadsheet work and try to noodle where I think these players will fit in my eventual top-100+ ranking that i’ll publish before the season starts. But I hate trading away assets and not getting enough in return, which I believe happened here.

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What do you think? Am I over-valuing Gore? Did we get appropriate return here? Should we have waited til the Trade deadline 2026?

Hello my fellow Nats fans. Happy New Year from all of us (i.e. “me”) at Nationals Arm Race. I posted this on 1/1/26, then the site immediately took a dump, but seems to be back now, so lets try this again.

Thanks for continuing to read what I have to write, to have awesome conversations in the comments, and to be fans of the sport and the team.

I wondered what would be a useful post for 1/1/26. I think i’ll ask some open ended questions and ask for predictions in the comments.

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Topic 1: Will the Nats Executive Youth Movement work?

I have yet to write at all about the youth movement in the Nats front office because, well, It’s certainly worked in the past for other/better franchises than ours (Theo Epstein was 28 when he took over Boston in 2002, Jon Daniels the same age when he took over Texas in 2005, and both had great success), so I don’t really have anything to say there from a criticism or support perspective.

Now, perhaps the combination of all three of these key figures being so young is concerning.

• Paul Toboni, 35, as President of Baseball Operations
• Anirudh Kilambi, 31, as General Manager
• Blake Butera, 33, as Manager (youngest in 50 years)

Toboni came from Boston, Kilambi came from Philly, and Butera came from Tampa. All three of those franchises are in far better places than we are, and each brings much needed experience to this team.

• Toboni’s role in Boston? Amateur Scouting and Player Development
• Kilambi’s role in Philadelphia? R&D, Data, Analytics, and Player analysis
• Butera’s role in Tampa? Senior Director of Player Development and head of their Farm system

See a trend here? I do. So the question is this: What do you see this brain trust doing with the team going forward? And, do you think it will move the team in a positive direction?

Here’s my 2 cents: The Rizzo regime blew nearly a decade of drafts and left this team with the gaping hole of player development that it’s just starting to get out of. Unfortunately, he had to trade practically every major star we had in 2021 and 2022 to cover for these player development failures … and now those players are starting to push into Arbitration. Now we have a new approach heavy on data (the Nats were not exactly considered at the forefront of data usage in the league), heavy on development (where we’ve failed badly for a while), and heavy on amateur scouting (which Rizzo, despite his pedigree coming up as a scout in Arizona, grew out of in his later years).

I sense this group is going to start over, probably has pitched the ownership group a 5-year plan starting with this year’s IFA crop to be announced in a couple weeks, and then moving onto the 2026 draft, and in the meantime will trade most anything not nailed down for more prospects to help build from the bottom up. This also signals to me that the MLB product will get worse before it gets better. And it leads to my second topic:

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Topic 2: Will Gore and Abrams be on the roster on Opening Day 2026?

Clearly the industry expects Gore to be moved this off-season, with his name atop most trade candidate analysis pieces. But … he didn’t move at the Winter Meetings when the buzz was hottest. The best time to get the most value out of a player is either:

• At the Trade Deadline, when contending teams make irrational decisions in pursuit of playoffs
• At the Winter Meetings, when everyone’s in the same building and you can play teams off each other.

Since he didn’t move at the Winter Meetings, I’m now thinking Gore sticks with us until next trade deadline and we roll the dice he stays healthy and improves the first half of next season.

Now, as for Abrams? He’s one of the worst fielding SS in the league but produces at a solid 106-107 wRC+ level the last two seasons. The SS free agent crop this off-season is pretty weak … but its not like the league can’t look up Fangraphs fielding stats themselves and see what the rest of us see. Nonetheless, His trade value is as a SS, and he needs to stick there until some rival executive swallows his analysis and says to himself, “ok we’ll deal with the defense to get the offense.” I’ve seen other blogs make the argument that Nasim Nunez should start at SS for us in 2026 and we should move Abrams to 2nd … The dumbest thing you could possibly do with a tradeable asset is to make him LESS valuable in trade by moving him to a less desirable position.

So, all that said, I’m guessing Abrams also sticks with us, plays out the first half, and we look to move him to a team that could use him at either SS or 2B and let THEM make the argument to him that its time to move off SS. I mean, if you’re Abrams and you’re looking at a 100-loss team that’s going to be this way for another couple years, and you get an offer to join a contender but you have to move to 2B … you’d have to be a fool not to jump.

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Topic #3: Are we going to see more Starter Acquisitions for the 2026 Rotation?

At the end of the 2025 season in my 2026 rotation wrap-up/prediction post, I thought the 2026 rotation would look like this:

• Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, and one from Alvarez/Irvin/Parker/Williams for the 5th.

Since then, we’ve made some moves. We signed a FA (Foster Griffen), we picked a Rule-5 Starter (Griff McGarry), and we’ve acquired a hard-throwing starter in trade with MLB experience (Luis Perales), all three of whom change this equation. I think if you laid out the Nats 40-man starter depth chart right now it’d look something like this:

• Gore, Grey, Cavalli
• Griffin locked in as the #4
• Williams (as much as I hate to admit it) the early favorite for #5, if only to see if he gets some trade value in his walk year.
• McGarry as Rule-5 is making the team, but seems likely to be in a SS/LR role. Maybe he beats out Williams for the 5th starter.
• Alvarez proved he can pitch in the Majors and as a lefty gives the rotation/bullpen flexibility. Or, maybe he wins the 5th starter role and puts both Williams and McGarry in the pen.
• Irvin, Parker, Lord: all seem better suited for the bullpen. All have options but it’d seem foolish to put any of them back in AAA.
• Herz to the DL
• Perales, Cornelio, Eder as the 1-2-3 in AAA. We just lost Lao to Japan apparently, though I’ve only seen that on social media posts and not officially in the transaction pages.

So, the salient question for the front office is this: Are you happy with this configuration, or are you making more moves? If they move Gore pre-season, that almost guarantees a Rule-5 pick and/or Alvarez is in the rotation to start the year, unless we want to roll the dice with more 5.75 ERA production from one of Irvin/Parker/Lord.

I sense this front office isn’t done making trades or signings yet.

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Anyway, Happy New Year and hope to get your thoughts on these three topics to kick off January.

Hello my fellow Nats fans. Happy New Year from all of us (i.e. “me”) at Nationals Arm Race.

Thanks for continuing to read what I have to write, to have awesome conversations in the comments, and to be fans of the sport and the team.

I wondered what would be a useful post for 1/1/26. I think i’ll ask some open ended questions and ask for predictions in the comments.

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Topic 1: Will the Nats Executive Youth Movement work?

I have yet to write at all about the youth movement in the Nats front office because, well, It’s certainly worked in the past for other/better franchises than ours (Theo Epstein was 28 when he took over Boston in 2002, Jon Daniels the same age when he took over Texas in 2005, and both had great success), so I don’t really have anything to say there from a criticism or support perspective.

Now, perhaps the combination of all three of these key figures being so young is concerning:

• Paul Toboni, 35, as President of Baseball Operations
• Anirudh Kilambi, 31, as General Manager
• Blake Butera, 33, as Manager (youngest in 50 years)

Toboni came from Boston, Kilambi came from Philly, and Butera came from Tampa. All three of those franchises are in far better places than we are, and each brings much needed experience to this team.

• Toboni’s role in Boston? Amateur Scouting and Player Development
• Kilambi’s role in Philadelphia? R&D, Data, Analytics, and Player analysis
• Butera’s role in Tampa? Senior Director of Player Development and head of their Farm system

See a trend here? I do. So the question is this: What do you see this brain trust doing with the team going forward? And, do you think it will move the team in a positive direction?

Here’s my 2 cents: The Rizzo regime blew nearly a decade of drafts and left this team with the gaping hole of player development that it’s just starting to get out of. Unfortunately, he had to trade practically every major star we had in 2021 and 2022 to cover for these player development failures … and now those players are starting to push into Arbitration. Now we have a new approach heavy on data (the Nats were not exactly considered at the forefront of data usage in the league), heavy on development (where we’ve failed badly for a while), and heavy on amateur scouting (which Rizzo, despite his pedigree coming up as a scout in Arizona, grew out of in his later years).

I sense this group is going to start over, probably has pitched the ownership group a 5-year plan starting with this year’s IFA crop to be announced in a couple weeks, and then moving onto the 2026 draft, and in the meantime will trade most anything not nailed down for more prospects to help build from the bottom up. This also signals to me that the MLB product will get worse before it gets better. And it leads to my second topic:

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Topic 2: Will Gore and Abrams be on the roster on Opening Day 2026?

Clearly the industry expects Gore to be moved this off-season, with his name atop most trade candidate analysis pieces. But … he didn’t move at the Winter Meetings when the buzz was hottest. The best time to get the most value out of a player is either:

• At the Trade Deadline, when contending teams make irrational decisions in pursuit of playoffs
• At the Winter Meetings, when everyone’s in the same building and you can play teams off each other.

Now, I’m thinking Gore sticks with us til next trade deadline and we roll the dice he stays healthy and improves the first half of next season.

Now, as for Abrams? He’s one of the worst fielding SS in the league but produces at a solid 106-107 wRC+ level the last two seasons. The SS free agent crop this off-season is pretty weak … but its not like the league can’t look up Fangraphs fielding stats themselves and see what the rest of us see. Nonetheless, His trade value is as a SS, and he needs to stick there until some rival executive swallows his analysis and says to himself, “ok we’ll deal with the defense to get the offense.” I’ve seen other blogs make the argument that Nasim Nunez should start at SS for us in 2026 and we should move Abrams to 2nd … The dumbest thing you could possibly do with a tradeable asset is to make him LESS valuable in trade by moving him to a less desirable position.

So, all that said, I’m guessing Abrams also sticks with us, plays out the first half, and we look to move him to a team that could use him at either SS or 2B and let THEM make the argument to him that its time to move off SS. I mean, if you’re Abrams and you’re looking at a 100-loss team that’s going to be this way for another couple years, and you get an offer to join a contender but you have to move to 2B … you’d have to be a fool not to jump.

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Topic #3: Are we going to see more Starter Acquisitions for the 2026 Rotation?

At the end of the 2025 season in my 2026 rotation wrap-up/prediction post, I thought the 2026 rotation would look like this:

• Gore, Grey, Cavalli, a Free Agent, and one from Alvarez/Irvin/Parker for the 5th.

Since then, we’ve made some moves. We signed a FA (Foster Griffen), we picked a Rule-5 Starter (Griff McGarry), and we’ve acquired a hard-throwing starter in trade with MLB experience (Luis Perales), all three of whom change this equation. I think if you laid out the Nats 40-man starter depth chart right now it’d look something like this:

• Gore, Grey, Cavalli
• Griffin locked in as the #4
• Williams (as much as I hate to admit it) the early favorite for #5, if only to see if he gets some trade value in his walk year.
• McGarry as Rule-5 is making the team, but seems likely to be in a SS/LR role. Maybe he beats out Williams for the 5th starter.
• Alvarez proved he can do the same and as a lefty gives the rotation/bullpen flexibility. Or, maybe he wins the 5th starter role and puts both Williams and McGarry in the pen.
• Irvin, Parker, Lord: all seem better suited for the bullpen
• Herz to the DL
• Perales, Cornelio, Eder as the 1-2-3 in AAA. We just lost Lao to Japan apparently, though I’ve only seen that on social media posts and not officially in the transaction pages.

So, the salient question for the front office is this: Are you happy with this configuration, or are you making more moves? If they move Gore pre-season, that almost guarantees a Rule-5 pick and/or Alvarez is in the rotation to start the year, unless we want to roll the dice with more 5.75 ERA production from one of Irvin/Parker/Lord.

I sense this front office isn’t done making trades or signings yet.

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Anyway, Happy New Year and hope to get your thoughts on these three topics to kick off January.

The Nats new GM reached back out to his old team and made a trade you just don’t see that often; prospect for prospect, two minor leaguers (essentially) for each other, both of whom are at the cusp of MLB production.

Jake Bennett heads to Boston straight up for Luis Perales a 22yr old RHP starter who got a cup of coffee with Boston this year.

From a prospect ranking perspective, MLBpipeline had Bennett as our #11 and now has Perales as our new #5, so in theory our farm system improves marginally. In reality, whether it was Bennett or Perales in our AAA rotation to start 2026, both would be expected to matriculate up this year. Perales is only 22 as an international signee, and has more upside/more risk, while Bennett is considered more floor/more consistent.

Keith Law had some interesting analysis in the immediate wake of the trade, noting that Bennett (and the Nats pitching dev staff) had done little to improve upon his offerings in his time here (either in terms of velocity or adding breaking pitches), whereas Boston has had success in helping its arms improve. Something to think about; Boston must have seen something it thinks it can improve upon with Bennett, while Toboni rolls the dice on a higher upside arm that he’s familiar with.

Here’s what our rough SP depth chart looks like right now on the 40-man:

• Likely opening day rotation: Gore, Grey, Cavalli, Alvarez/Irvin/Parker competition
• Likely starters->bullpen: McGarry, Lord, Williams
• To the DL: Herz
• To AAA: Perales, Lao, Eder, Cornelio

That’s not a bad AAA rotation to start, adding to it Luckham, Shuman, and Ogasawara as 5th candidates

Anyway, odds are we’re not done seeing trades. Big question is whether he will move Gore now or try to leverage desperate teams at the 2026 trade deadline … and if he can convince other teams that Abrams is really a shortstop.