Westin Moss joins the team as our 11th rounder. Photo via TAMU.
Here’s part 2 of my overview of the 2026 Draft class, those players picked 11th -20th.
Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need.
Nationals Draft Tracker: New for this year in the 2026 tab: links to instagram and twitter for each player (which we can use to verify signing if need be), as well as links to their college stats page directly.
Baseball America Transfer portal: though, none of the 11-20th college players seem to be in the portal, likely a good sign for us to get them signed.
Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick. Note: it’s quite rare for any of these picks to be ranked, so I’ll only include rankings if they exist.
11th Round, 316th overall: Weston Moss, a College Jr. RHP from Texas A&M
Ranks by major shops: BA=358
Moss was TAMU’s Sunday/#3 starter this season, posting a 5.46 ERA over 14 starts and 64.1 innings. 69/21 k/bb in 64IP. He was a reliever his first two years, then didn’t go drafted as a draft-eligible sophomore last year and moved into their rotation. Fringe average velocity, but he’s got a good frame and size (6’4″). Scouts think he can add velocity thanks to his mechanics, and can stay as a starter. He will sign, as most 11th rounders do, and may get a little extra cash to do so over the $150k standard.
Moss joins a solid group of 11th rounders that we’ve picked over the years, players who generally have had solid careers. 2025’s Moroknek has already been promoted this year, 2024’s Beeker was dominant out of the Low-A pen before getting hurt, 2022’s Luke Young is in the AAA bullpen, just promoted. 2010’s JT Arruda was a 6year org guy with a ton of AAA time, 2018’s Bartow made it to AA, etc.
12th Round, 346th overall: Matthew Dallas, a College Jr. LHP from Wake Forest
Ranks by major shops: none
Dallas was a major prep prospect; he started the gold medal game in 2022 for USA Baseball 18U. After sitting on the bench for Tennesee most of his freshman year he transferred to Wake Forest, where he was a rotation starter as sophomore. He was slotted into the Sunday starter spot for Wake this year, threw two games, then blew out his elbow in late March, requiring elbow surgery. The timing of the surgery is awful for Dallas: he likely cannot get back in time to even compete in the 2027 season, meaning he’d be looking at adding two full years to his college career. Given that timing, it works to the Nats’ favor; he should sign and get under the care of a pro team immediately, and when he’s healthy he’ll slot right into rookie ball instead. Tough break for him, but he can get some bonus money out of it and get on with his pro career.
13th Round, 376th overall: Cody Howard, a College Grad Student RHP from Texas
Ranks by major shops: none
Howard was a little-used RHP reliever by Texas his entire career. He only threw 16IP this season, and had an ERA in the 8s. It’s a weird pick at this juncture, especially for a 5th year senior/grad student. This smells like a pick made because he’s someone’s cousin, or a friend of a scout, and one I wouldn’t expect in the 13th round. I’ll be really curious to see what he signs for.
14th Round, 406th overall: Zack Konstantinovsky, a college Junior LHP from Rutgers
Ranks by major shops: none
Konstantinovsky (lord help me if I have to remember how to spell this guy’s name) was in Rutger’s rotation this season, mostly as their Saturday/#2 starter, and threw to a 4-5 record with a 5.48 ERA. 83/21 k/bb in 70ip, though with a .293 BAA. Not bad for the 14th round. He held his own when Rutgers went up against the likes of UCLA, and pitched admirably in the Big10 tourney before Rutgers went 2-and-out. No scouting report available anywhere; seems like a typical mid-major college starter who could have some value in the bullpen.
15th Round, 436th overall: Francisco Rivero, a Prep C from Canyon del Oro HS (AZ) (Arizona commit)
Ranks by major shops: none
Rivero is an interesting player. He tried an end-around gambit on the draft, moving from Arizona to Venezeula in order to try to establish IFA eligibility. The Dodgers signed him to a reported $700k bonus last year, but then MLB ruled him ineligible for the international draft, so he returned home to Arizona, re-enrolled in school, and here we are. He’s committed to Uof Arizona, but i’m guessing he wants to play pro, else he wouldn’t have tried the Venezeula gambit in the first place. I’d guess he signs for the $150k figure and comes on board.
16th Round, 466th overall: Anthony Murphy, a prep OF from Corona HS (CA) (LSU commit)
Ranks by major shops: BA: 159, MLB: 108, Espn: 146,
So, Murphy is essentially “Luke Williams” insurance; if negotiations with our two top HS picks Williams and/or Harris fall through, we can take that money and throw it at Murphy. He’s a significant prospect; he was the starting CF on the 2026 USA 18U national team, he’s been a starter on the powerhouse Corona HS for four years, and he’s committed to LSU, who have probably the biggest NIL budget in the sport, so you know he’s getting paid. It seems highly unlikely he comes on board. He should have been a 3rd or 4th rounder if he was going to sign; now it seems like LSU gets its leadoff hitter for the next three years as it tries to rebuild after a down 2026.
17th Round, 496th overall: Isaiah Galason, a prep SS from Houston County HS (GA) (Georgia Tech)
Ranks by major shops: BA: 345, Espn: 210
Galason is still a solid prep prospect, but not in the same range as Murphy. He’s still “Luke Williams” insurance though, in that he’s a top prep prospect who could be bought out of college for the right price. He’s an undersized SS with 70 speed but who BA’s scouting reports think may be a 2B longer term. Good hit tool, not a lot of power. He’s defense-first but also has a quick twitch bat that drives the ball, if not out of the park. Seems unlikely that he signs.
18th Round, 526th overall: Avery Ortiz, a college Jr. SS/2B from Oklahoma State.
Ranks by major shops: none
Ortiz was OSU’s starting SS … for 2 games, when he had a “lower body” injury that kept him out for nearly 2 months this season. He got back for 3 games in April, then out again until mid May. He missed a ton of time in 2025 as well, and likely is set to leave OSU unfulfilled; i can’t imagine going back for another season after he’s struggled to stay on the field all this time. He’s a sub-6-foot infielder, likely a SS/2B combo. No scouting report on him anywhere. I’d guess he’s going to sign, give pros a shot, even though he’s got eligibility left.
19th Round, 556th overall: Jack Brooks, a college senior OF (CF) from Oregon.
Ranks by major shops: none
Brooks has no scouting detail anywhere, and his stats don’t offer much promise: he slashed .236/.370/.391 while starting nearly every Oregon game this year in the outfield. He was a SS in high school, and i’d guess his primary skill is plus defense in the outfield. But a .236 hitter as a red-shirt junior seems like this may be a character guy, or a favorite of a local scout.
Siebert looked like he was the closer for his Juco team at Johnson County in Kansas; they went 67-3 this season. He’s been there two years, and has committed in the transfer portal to go to Tennessee. Does he want to skip a shot at the SEC for pro ball and $150K? I’m guessing this is a tougher sign; he may want a shot at better baseball. Plus, its SEC and Tennessee NIL money; probably not as much as a $150k signing bonus but it won’t be nothing. Tougher sign.
So, of the 10 guys we drafted here, i’m guessing:
Six (6) are most likely to sign (Moss, Dallas, Howard, Konstantinovsky, Rivero, Brooks
Two (2) are maybes (Ortiz, Seibert)
Two are no-way signing unless negotiations blow up with our two upper-round Prep kids (Murphy, Galason)
Which would leave us likely with a 17-18 player draft class, about what we’d expect.
Chase Brunson was our 2nd rounder out of TCU. Photo via Yahoo Sports
Here’s a run through the first 10 picks we made this weekend. This post shows the ranks of our players on the various draft boards, plus a summary of any scouting reports/draft analysis I could find from the major pundits/shops.
Here’s the two main draft tracker resources you need and that I’m updating this week in as close to real-time as I can given my current employment status :-):
Nationals Draft Tracker: this is the long-running Google XLS with all our picks dating to 2005. There’s two tabs here: the main page with every pick, then a deeper-dive 2026 Draft pick with slot bonus breakdowns and other information on each pick. New This year: i’m going to embed direct links to college stat pages for easy reference, since i’m looking them up anyway. For Prep kids, just a link to their Perfect Game profile, which will have video clips.
MLB’s Draft Tracker, the best of various options of Draft Trackers out there.
As of this writing, I have updated the Draft Tracker main page for the 2026 class, and have populated the 2026 detailed tab.
Here’s links to major Prospect Rankings shops that I’ll reference below when assessing the “value” of the pick.
1st Round, 11th overall: Chris Hacopian, a College Jr. 2B from Texas A&M
Ranks by major shops: BA=11, Law=34, MLB=14, ESPN=13, Fangraphs=8, Prospects1500=9
See here for the quick post I made specifically about Hacopian and my reaction. I won’t repeat that info here, but will note the interesting discrepancy of Hacopian on the ranking boards presented here. Every shop has him between 8-14 except … our friend Keith Law, ever the contrarian, whose writeup on Hacopian doesn’t really say anything critical of him except to note that he missed a month and hasn’t moved well since he returned. It’s almost like he dumped Hacopian way down when he got hurt, then never revisited him upon his return. I wonder where Law would have him if he had never gotten hurt. I can’t imagine, based on the consensus of his ranking in the class, that this is an under-slot pick by any means, so I’d expect him to sign at or near slot. Maybe he saves a little bit off of the $6.1M figure, money that we can throw at the two prep kids.
2nd round #42 overall: Chase Brunson, a College Jr. OF (CF) from Texas Christian
Ranks by major shops: BA=47, Law=24, MLB=50, ESPN=38 Fangraphs=52, Prospects1500=37
Brunson slashed .304/.462/.556 this year, and was a 3-year starter in CF for TCU. He’s got 50s or 55s across the board for every tool, showing promise everywhere but not a stand-out tool in any of the 5 disciplines. Law likes him the most, saying he’s got 20/20 capabilities with even more power there, and even if he can’t stay in CF he’s got the arm strength for RF. By all accounts he was better in 2025 but made adjustments this season, perhaps because he split time in CF with another 1st round talent teammate in Sawyer Strosnider. That caused him to slip from being a late 1st rounder to an early 2nd rounder, and I sense this could be a steal for us. I’d guess this is another slot pick, no real savings here.
3rd round #78 overall: Luke Williams, a Prep SS from Franklin Regional HS (near Pittsburgh, PA)
Ranks by major shops: BA=99, Law=outside top 100, MLB=90, ESPN=57, Fangraphs=67, Prospects1500=83
Williams is a Vanderbilt commit (one shop has him going to UVA but everywhere else says Vandy), but a 3rd round selection with a slot value of slightly more than $1M should buy him out of that with enough cash. I’m guessing he goes a bit over-slot, especially since Vandy is a premier college destination for players and they have a ton of money. Both BA and MLB put 70 grades on him for speed and arm strength. He’s a true SS with enough arm to handle CF if he can’t cut it there, and he’s got more than a bit of power with 50s there. The big worry here is an underdeveloped hit tool, but that’s not uncommon for a prep kid.
4th round #106 overall: Cooper Harris, a Prep RHP from Flower Mound HS ( a suburb of Dallas, TX)
Ranks by major shops: BA=83, Law=55, MLB=76, ESPN=110, Fangraphs=76, Prospects1500=76
Across the board, we seemed to get real value from this pick. Law likes him a ton, describing him as a 3/4 starter with clean mechanics who a good franchise can easily develop. Is that the Nats? We’ll see. He’s super young (he just turned 18 before the draft), sits 94-96, has a huge spin rate that naturally misses bats. BA gives him a 60 fastball and two 55s on his primary breaking pitches, which sounds like a good sign. I suspect a Texas kid with a commit to Texas will need more than 4th round money, so look for this to be an overslot deal too. As much as prep RHP are risky, this isn’t a 100mph kid with crazy mechanics; this sounds like a player who is getting guys out without the max effort that leads to injury.
5th round #138 overall: Daniel Cuvet, a College Jr. 3B from University of Miami
Ranks by major shops: BA=97, Law=87, MLB=120, ESPN=152, Fangraphs=unranked, Prospects1500=unranked
Cuvet, for those who pay attention to such things, was a consensus pre-season All American heading into this season after hitting 24 homers as a freshman and then posting a .372/.450/.708 slash-line as a sophomore. He’s a big dude: 6’3″ 240, with 70 grade power. The “ding” on him was swing and miss, which he seemed to be cleaning up early this season with more walks than Ks (30/33 K/BB in his 41 games. His season was cut short by a stress fracture in his back, something that had been bugging him all year and dampening his stats even before he hung ’em up. He stopped playing by the end of April, and missed the rest of the season. Question is this: is he ready to turn pro, or does he want to go back to school to try to increase his stock? It’s no guarantee; he could get hurt again next year and be looking at a teen-round bonus, or he could get squeezed based on lack of remaining eligibility. He played too much in 2026 to redshirt. So, odds are he’ll sign for something likely around slot and move to a pro organization to rehab and move forward. A healthy Cuvet looks really promising, and reminds one of Yohandy Morales, another slugger from Miami who was a 3B in college but who probably becomes at 1B in the pros. If he returns to his sophomore year form, this could be a steal of a pick in the 5th.
6th round #167 overall: Cooper Allen, a College Jr. RHP (starter) from UNC-Wilmington
Ranks by major shops: unranked anywhere.
The first of our underslot picks to pay the prep players, Allen was UNC-Wilmington’s Saturday Starter this season (aka their #2 starter), started 15 games and went 8-4 with a 2.79 ERA for the team. 96/23 K/BB in 87 IP, solid BAA of .210. Seems like a solid college pitcher. His scouting report at BA reports that he sits 90-91, with a mid-80s cutter that he uses to get guys out. He’s undersized (6’1″ 205) and seems to rely less on velocity and more on pitching to get guys out. He’s a college junior with eligibility left, but isn’t a huge prospect, so I’m suspecting he’ll take a haircut on his slot value ($410k) and will turn pro, with little left to prove in college. He is not currently in the transfer portal.
7th round #196 overall: Gage Peterson, a College Jr. RHP (starter) from Appalachian State
Ranks by major shops: BA: 344. Nobody else has him ranked.
Peterson went 8-1 and posted a 3.28 ERA in 15 starts and 85 innings, with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate for App State as their Sunday Starter (aka their #3), who he joined for his junior year after two years at a Juco. He sits 90-94 but is a big frame guy who BA thinks can throw much harder. 107/34 K/BB in 89 innings; that’s solid. He’s a big guy (6’5″) who scouts seem to dream on. BA’s scouting report thought he was an 8th-12th rounder; we got him in the 7th, which tells me he’s taking something closer to the $150k range instead of slot of $322k. He is not currently in the transfer portal.
8th round #226 overall: Max Hansmann, a College Senior RHP (starter) from Evansville
Ranks by major shops: none.
Our first senior/bonus pool savings pick, Hansmann was the Friday night starter for Evansville. He had solid numbers: 4-3 in 15 s tarts, 3.99 ERA.1.38 WHIP. A K/inning. But we’re talking about Evansville and the Missouri Valley Conference, so impressions should be tempered. I don’t think this is a $1k signing, but I can’t imagine him getting much more than $10k. Boston Smith was a senior draftee who got $50k last year; I’d expect Hansmann to be somewhere in-between. I cannot find any scouting reports on him, even on BA, which kind of tells you what you need to know about the guy. He is not currently in the transfer portal.
9th round #256 overall: Cashel Dugger, a College Jr. C from UCLA
Ranks by major shops: BA: #333
Dugger’s rank is entirely driven on his defensive capabilities and skill at handling a pitching staff. He slashed .251/.378/.382 this season, and has never slugged .400 in his career. His BA scouting report basically says he’s set to have a long career as a backup catcher in some organization, which is what it is. I can’t imagine he signs for a ton of money (slot is $216k), and I can’t imagine he agreed to be picked unless he intended to go pro. UCLA as a team kind of peaked this year, sitting at #1 the entire season with a slew of top players, and for Dugger to stick around for a rebuilding season may seem out of the cards. I’ll bet he signs for something slightly below slot but a bit above the $150k standard 11-20th round figure. He is not currently in the transfer portal.
10th round #286 overall: Nick Williams, a 5th year Senior OF from Michigan State
Ranks by major shops: none
Williams was Michigan State’s leading hitter this season, slashing .333/.434/.540 with a bit of power and a few SBs. He’s probably limited positionally to a corner due to his size and lack of speed, but could be a nice older presence on a team. Odds are this is a super bonus saving pick, in the $10k or less space. But, he seems like a nice pick here.
So, that being said, Here’s what I think the team does with its bonus dollars.
Over Slot picks: Williams, Harris
Slot picks (or close to it): Hacopian, Brunson, Cuvet
Under Slot picks: Allen (250k savings), Peterson ($150k savings), Hansmann ($225k savings), Dugger ($75k savings), Williams ($190k savings)
So that would give the team right around $900k to work with before the 5% cushion of an additional $600k. Can $1.5M get both Williams and Harris signed? Maybe: if Hacopian takes a haircut off his $6.1M slot, that extra money could seal the deal. Say Hacopian signed for $5.5m; that’d be an extra $600k to throw at the two HS players and could get it done, bringing both of them into the $1.75m range easily.
I’ll post the 11th->20th round picks analysis/overview in the next post later this week.
Hacopain’s TAMU profile pick is … jacked. Photo via MLB network
So, one of the challenges of having a draft on a Saturday is, it’s awfully hard to find time to do a full comprehensive reaction in a timely manner. So, this will be somewhat brief, but wanted to get a conversation out there real quick.
In this year’s first round, the Nats at #11 take Chris Hacopian, 2B from TAMU. He’s a DC area native; born in Gaithersburg, grew up in Potomac, went to Churchill, and spent his first two college seasons locally at Maryland (click here for his PG profile). He was at UMD with his older brother, and upon his graduation Hacopian entered the transfer portal and went to TAMU. Hacopian was ready for better competition than what UMD gave him; he destroyed big 10 pitching his sophomore year. He wasn’t awful in the Cape Cod league after his sophomore year (he destroyed the NECL after his freshman year).
His junior season at TAMU he slashed .319/.405/.578 with more walks than Ks and some power (11 homers). He played 3B and SS for Maryland, and initially was set to play SS for Tamu as well, but ended up at 2B instead thanks to some limitations in his arm strength and lateral motion. I think he’s profiling as a 2B/LF type in the pros. His leading tool is his Hit tool, where he was one of the best pure hitters in the draft and has a 60 grade from MLBpipeline.com. They give him a current 50 power grade, but something tells me this guy can improve on that as well. I think he’s a pro hitter who won’t chase, hits the ball hard, can power it up when he wants to, and who should move through the ranks quickly. He had some injury issues this year, and by most accounts is a stiff, awkward athleticism guy who may struggle to stick even at 2B.
Hacopian was mocked to the Nats pretty frequently in the end, with the major pundits all over the pick. The way the 1st round worked out, if the Nats were after a college hitter, then they got the one that made the most sense; Burress, Gracia, and Bell all went just before Hacopian, and the next three picks were all HS guys (Gringlinger, Condon, Lombard). They passed on the toolsy Lebron, as well as Ace Reese, who went 24th and was clearly not in the near-top10 level. They also passed on all the prep projects, which is interesting and indicative of what this new front office is thinking after last year’s prep-heavy draft.
My judgement: the way the draft worked out, he was the “right” pick if the target was a College bat, with all the other candidates going before him. He could be a fast mover, maybe in the majors by end of 2027.
Roch Cholowsky may not be the consensus 1-1 pick any more. Photo via BA
I published the “way too early” Phase 1 Mock draft post in April, covering all the very early mocks plus those that hadn’t really taken into account a big chunk of the spring season. Then, I published Phase 2 mock draft review on 6/8/26, with a deeper dive into analysis and some macro draft thoughts. That Phase 2 post ended up being rather lengthy; we’re still technically in that “weeks leading up to the draft” portion of the Mock Draft season, without a ton of movement. However, by the time you read this HS is done, College is done, and top prospects are sitting at home fielding phone calls from interested teams (1st rounders aren’t likely to go spend a couple weeks playing summer wood bat, but lesser players may in order to get some last minute impress-the-scouts views).
Since the mocks continue to roll in, here’s another post. This time, I’m separating out the “Draft Class Ranks” from the “Mock Drafts” since they have different aims. I’ve captured these draft boards mostly so that I can reference them in my 2026 draft class post, to kind of show where players were ranked that we ended up picking.
I’ll just be adding all the “final” mocks to this post since the draft starts two days after I posted.
Here’s the mocks, starting with those released right after my last post
The Athletic/Keith Law Mock 2.0 6/10/26: Lackey, Bell, Cholowsky, Emerson, Flora. This is a crazy departure from basically every other mock we’ve seen in the cycle. Nats at #11 are on Chris Hacopian, the TAMU 2B with ties to the DC area (Churchhill HS then two years at Maryland), though he also mentions Jared Grindlinger as a name that the Nats are tied to at this pick. In Law’s mock, other names we’d like to see like Burress are gone.
CBSSports/Mike Axisa 6/12/26 mock: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Pretty standard. Nats at #11 on Grindlinger, saying that the Nats were heavily scouting his last few HS games.
MLBPipeline/Jonathan Mayo One-month away Mock 6/12/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. No real change for Mayo over the last few mocks for the top 5. Nats at #11 he now has Justin Lebron, the very tooled up Alabama SS who has been all over the map this draft season, from an early top 5 pick to late 1st round. In this scenario, both Burress, and Hacopian are gone, as is Bell (who Law has going super early), the Nats leave Grindlinger alone, and pass on college guys like Curiel, Flukey, and Reese.
Baseball America Staff Draft 6/15/26: Lackey, Cholowsky, Emerson, Booth, Curiel. Nats “GM” at #11 got Ryder Helfrick, C from Arkansas. The guys just after the Helfrick pick: Gringlinger, Hacopian, Gracia, Reese, and Lebron… basically 5 guys who I think are better picks than Helfrick. BA warns that this is not a “mock draft” but instead what their staff picking at those spots would do, but Curiel in the top 5 seems crazy.
ESPN/Kiley McDaniel Who they should pick Mock 6/18/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard. So, the classic top 5 we’ve been seeing for months. McDaniel says the top 3 are a tier, then the next two, then 6 and up. He’s got the Nats at #11 on Liam Peterson, the RHP friday starter from Florida. First time i’ve seen anyone project Peterson to the Nats, who would be leaving Flukey, Gringlinger, and Curiel on the table with this pick. McDaniel points out that the Boston-alum heavy front office was “good at identifying pitching it could optimize” and Peterson could slot in. I have to tell you, I don’t hate getting a top college pitcher at this point in the Nats farm system development … which is super SS heavy.
MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Mock on 6/18/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Lombard, Booth. First guy that I can think of that inserts Booth into the top 5 (he has Flora 6th). He has Nats on Hacopian, though notes that the industry knows that the team is “in” on Gringlinger. This mock has the two-way prep star falling to #19.
MLBPipeline Callis & Mayo tag team a Mock 6/26/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Lombard, Flora. Pretty standard. Nats at #11 they have Kentucky SS Tyler Bell, who is picked over the likes of Gringlinger, Hacopian, Reese, and Lebron in this mock.
CBSSports/Mike Axisa 6/26/26 mock: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Lombard, Bell; from his last mock he moves up Lackey a spot, and puts Bell at #5 after a strong CWS finish. He also describes Bell as an underslot guy at this position, which seems fair given that he’s got a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder that he’s played with all year that will require immediate surgery . Nats at #11 still on Gringlinger, saying the Nats would let him be a 2-way player to start his pro career.
BA Mock 5.0 post CWS and Combine 6/29/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Standard top 5, though he says Cholowsky isn’t certain 1-1 anymore, and that Pittsburgh at 5 could do an underslot deal instead of picking the obvious Flora. Nats at #11 on Ace Reese, the power-hitting 3B from Mississippi State. He recognizes the industry all says Gringlinger, but BA says the Nats are moving more towards college bats now. Grindlinger falls to #20 as a result.
Prep Baseball Report Staff Mock (via D1baseball) 7/2/26: Lackey, Emerson, Cholowsky, Flora, Lombard. Sorry, but this just seems out of touch with reality. There’s zero chance Tampa passes on Cholowsky if he somehow doesn’t go 1-1, and there’s little chance the Giants pass on Lombard. There’s a reason these mock drafts look similar; its because the pundits have relationships with GMs and know who they’ve been sending cross checkers out to see. They also put a guy at #6 who I’ve literally never heard of. Nats at #11 take prep lefty Gio Rojas, leaving a slew of top 10 names on the board.
MLBPipeline’s Jonathan Mayo Mock 7/2/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Booth; Booth jumps Flora in this mock. Nats at #11 get Reese. They leave Curiel, Bell, Hacopian, Lebron, and Gringlinger on the board to take Reese, which seems unlikely.
Keith Law’s Mock 3.0 7/6/26: Emerson, Lackey, Cholowsky, Lombard, Flora. Law’s research now shows CWS at 1-1 have Cholowsky “a distant third” for the pick, At #11 he has the nats taking Hacopian, as he did a month ago, saying that the Nats staff loves Grindlinger but is concerned about the amount of dev time needed for a 2-way 17 yr old.
Not a mock, but Kiley McDaniel posted the “one big question” each team faces with its 1st round pick on 7/6/26. The Nat’s conversation talks about how recent Boston draft proclivities at the top may show up in the Nats draft this year.
Baseball America Staff Draft v4.0 7/6/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, Flora, Booth. Nats at #11 got Reese.
Prospects1500 Mock Draft 7/7/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Booth. At #11 they mock Carson Bolemon, a prep LHP from Southside Christian (HS) in South Carolina to the team. This seems crazy; he’s ranked in the 20s and has not once appeared in any mock draft conversation for the team.
ProspectsLive team did a podcast/video mock 7/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. Nats at #11 they go with Grindlinger.
Baseball Prospect Journal Staff Mock Draft 7/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard. nats at #11 get Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah (Ga.) HS, another name that basically nobody is mentioning to the Nats in particular, or this high. At least the boards have him reasonably within the realm of the #11 range.
Fangraphs/Longenhagen Mock v1.0 7/8/26: Emerson, Lackey, Cholowsky, Flora, Booth. Like other major pundits, he’s reading the tea leaves and seeing that Cholowsky may be slipping and that Booth has taken over Lombard’s spot int he top 5. In this draft, Drew Burress drops to the Nats at #11, and if this happens I’d think the team would be ecstatic.
Final Mocks from Pundits
Baseball America Mock 6.0 final mock 7/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Booth, Flora. We’re seeing Lombard with some late slippage, and Booth seems to be the name now stepping into the top 5. As with their previous mock, they have Nats on Reese. Gringlinger drops to #19.
ESPN/McDaniel Final Mock Draft 7/10/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Booth, Burress. Wow, first time we’ve seen Drew Burress in the top 5; just a day before Longenhagen had him dropping to us at #11. In this mock, Nats at #11 get Derek Curiel, the famous hitter from LSU. I’d be a-ok with this scenario.
The Athletic/Keith Law’s Final Mock 7/10/26: Emerson, Lackey, Cholowsky, Lombard, Flora. Nats get Hacopian.
Fangraphs/Longenhagen Final Mock 7/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. Nats get Bell.
MLBPipeline/Jonathan Mayo’s Final Mock 7/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. Nats get Lebron
MLBPipeline/Jim Callis Final Mock 7/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Curiel. Nats get Hacopian
CBSSports/Mike Axisa Final Mock 7/10/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Booth. nats get Gracia.
Baseball Prospect Journal/Logan Quinton Final Mock: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Booth, Flora. Nats get Condon (BPJ is the only shop that is on Condon here)
The draft runs from July 11 to 13th this year, so we’re just a few days away.
My predictions right now?
Top 5: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey (in some order), then Booth, Flora.
Nats at #11: It’s looking like a college bat: whoever is left from Reese, Curiel, Burress, Hacopian.
Actual Draft Results post draft:
Top 5 went Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Curiel. Nats get Hacopian.
Jim Callis nailed it perfectly; only guy to have Curiel in top 5, he had the top 5 in order, and he got Nats pick right. Only Keith Law besides Callis got Nats/Hacopian.
2-way prep star Jared Gringlinger is settling in on multiple mocks to the Nats at #11. Photo via BA
Each year we have basically three categories of mock drafts and Draft Board Ranks:
The way too early drafts, which are done any time in 2025 for the 2026 draft all the way to those done within the first couple of months of the spring season. I reviewed the Phase 1 version of mocks about a month ago.
The “starting to get down to business” mock drafts, which start to really look at those who are rising and falling due to 2026 performance, those who have had injury issues, plus those who have clarified their “going to school” status.
The “week leading up to the draft” Mocks where the major pundits are working the phones to get for-real intel into who the teams are looking at, and sometimes we get mocks the day of that nearly nail the top 10.
We’re now well into Phase 2; that is this analysis. In fact, there’s been so many i’m publishing now and may do another version of this as more mocks come in the rest of the month.
Macro Draft Class statements: the pundits are reporting:
The top of the draft is weaker than in year’s past
Class Strengths include College bats, Prep Pitching for depth.
Weaknesses seem to be prep bats after the top 3-4 names, college arms this year for sure.
So, let’s get to it. For each Mock i’ll list the top 5 names plus who they project to the Nats at #11 with some commentary. I’ll spell out player names the first time they’re used, then just use last names going forward. Also, I’m adding more commentary to each mock in this section, and will identify names who the Nats would purposely be skipping in each mock who I think they’d give serious thought to taking.
Keith Law Mock 1.0 5/7/26: Grady Emerson (prep SS, Texas HS), Roch Cholowsky (SS UCLA), Vahn Lackey (C Georgia Tech), Jackson Flora (RHP UC Santa Barbara), Eric Booth Jr (prep OF, Miss HS). Nats at #11 take Chris Hacopian, SS/3B from Texas A&M (and thus leaving Peterson, Bell, and Lebron on the table). Law is the first mock drafter who does NOT have Cholowsky going 1-1 in this cycle, and freely admits that the team drafting 1st overall (the White Sox) may be sending smoke signals to the Cholowsky camp to tamper down bonus demands. I think they’d be fools not to take the UCLA shortstop, who entered the season the consensus 1-1 candidate and has done absolutely nothing but produce and keep that reputation. Meanwhile, as I’ve mentioned in prior posts there’s a big “gap” in prep prospects right in the section where the Nats draft, which really makes it seem like we’ll be drafting a college bat.
Jim Callis MLBpipeline First Officiail Mock 5/8/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Jacob Lombard (prep SS , Florida HS), Flora. Nats at #11 take Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS. This would be a shock overdraft, as he’s ranked well outside the 1st round on draft boards right now. In this mock, picking Gridlinger would leave in particular Curiel on the table, but also the likes of Hacopian, Flukey, Bell, etc. Grindlinger reclassified from 2027, so he’d be super young like Willits, but may also go under-slot which would allow for more over-slot prep draftees in rounds 2-5.
Baseball America Mock Draft 3.0 5/11/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 takeDrew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech. Burress has been in the top 10 of this draft since the beginning of the cycle, and BA has mocked Burress to the Nats now a couple of times with these exercises. In this mock, the Nats would be passing on the likes of Bell, Curiel, Gridlinger, Lebron, etc. But, BA has some of these players now in the 20s, implying that a 6.1M slot value would sign for something 33% less 10 picks later. Players like Peterson and Reese, who have been mocked to the Nats earlier in this cycle, are now nearly out of the 1st round.
Keith Law Draft Ranks 5/14/26: Cholowsky, Lackey, Flora, Bell, Emerson. As Law notes immediately in the write-up, this is a rank, not a mock. He’s got Bell in particular in the top 4, but i’ve seen mocks with Bell going in the 20s. That’d be such an amazing steal for that team if indeed Bell is this good. He also ranks Lombard (regularly in the top 5 on these mocks) way way down at #17, so I can imagine what he thinks of a team popping him that early. Some of the names associated with the Nats at #11 are deep into the 20s on this list (Hacopian, Gracia), while others are much higher (Burress in particular).
Espn/Kiley McDaniel Mock Draft 1.0 5/14/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 take Grindlinger, same as the MLBpipeline mock above. McDaniel reports that the consensus decision at 1-1 is now nearly a 50/50 proposition with Emerson rising fast. Grindlinger is reported as a two-way player, better on the hit side but still promising on the arm side (as a pitcher-only prospect he’s a comp-to-early 2nd rounder). In this scenario, the Nats would be passing on Peterson, Curiel, Lebron.
ESPN/Kiley McDaniel top 150 Draft Ranks 5/17/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Booth. #11 is Grindlinger as it turns out. McDaniel’s draft board isn’t entirely in sync with his recent mock draft, showing Lombard out of the top 5, which is consistent with many of the draft rankings despite is frequent placement in the top 5. His rank exposes one of the big disagreements between pundits: where to rank Tyler Bell? McDaniel ranks him #29 while Law ranks him #4. That’s a really, really wide gap.
Jonathan Mayo/MLBpipeline 5/21/26 Mock: Cholowsky, Emerson, Flora, Lombard, Lackey. #11 Nats take Justin Lebron, SS from Alabama. Lebron has been “polarizing” this season b/c he started the mock draft season as an easy top 5 pick but has struggled this season, badly. As of the beginning of SEC play he’s only slashing .266/.384/.522. I say “only” since he’s got 14 homers … and 38/39 SBs. He wasn’t on a bunch of pre-season AA lists for nothing. Question is: what’s his true hit tool? .266 this year or his .314 last year? In this scenario Nats would leave players like Peterson, Curiel, Gracia, Gridlinger, and Bell on the board, all names we’ve seen them associated with in prior mocks. This really highlights to me just how wide open this area of the draft is this year.
Dan Zielinski III from Baseball Prospect Journal released his Mock 1.0 on 5/23/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Basically the same top 5 as most everyone else at this point. He’s got Nats at #11 on Gridlinger, though he’s have us skip over in particular Cameron Flukey, the Coastal Carolina #1 starter who is probably the 2nd best arm on the board. I know you don’t draft for Need … but do we “need” yet another prep SS? Maybe its time to infuse more pitching into the system, since every one of our prospect stars this season seems to be a hitter.
Baseball America Top 500 Draft Board 5/27/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard. #11 ranked is divisive Kentucky SS Tyler Bell. Bell projects as a well rounded SS who can play all over the dirt in a pinch, with solid marks for all five tools but no 60s or 70s anywhere. He was a 2nd rounder out of HS, went to college, and now projects as a mid 1st rounder. He hurt his shoulder in the first week of the season and played through it a bit, which has hampered his draft stock/stats, something to think about from a value perspective. Bell at #11 could be a solid pick.
ESPN/Kiley McDaniel Mock 2.0 5/29/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Same 5 as the last few mocks, in slightly different order. He puts the Nats on Gridlinger, like a few others, saying “Grindlinger has been tied to this spot for a while.” In this scenario Burress is long gone, but the Nats take the prep SS over the likes of Hacopian, Bell, Flukey, Lebron.
MLBPipeline Top 200 Draft Prospects 5/29/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. #11 ranked player is Coastal Carolina’s ace Cameron Flukey, though as we know player ranks tend to fluctuate with day in and day out performance. If Flukey dominates in the CWS regional (CCU is an underdog in their regional) we could see him pop up a bit.
Jonathan Mayo Industry survey 6/1/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora again. We’re definitely starting to see some consistency here. This wasn’t a ranking, but more of a survey.
D1Baseball Top 250 draft board 6/4/26: Lackey, Cholowsky, Flora, Hacopian, Bell. D1’s list is only D1 players, no Prep players, and is weird in that they have Lackey over Cholowsky, basically the only service that does so. I also think they have some players too high/too low in comparison to others.
Post-D1 regional MLBPipeline mock 6/5/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Same top 5 as everyone. He’s got Nats on Gridlinger once again, but says that if Burress or Hacopian are available they could go here. In this scenario, the Nats leave Flukey, Curiel, Reese, Bell, and Lebron on the table.
Baseball America published a Top 500 Prep-only list 6/5/26: that’s just a crazy amount of analysis, even given the modern day of travel teams and showcases for these kids. 500 prep kids ranked. The top 5 prep kids go as expected: Emerson, Lombard, Booth, Rojas, and Nats favorite Grindlinger. There’s a smattering of Virginia-based kids, not a ton as this seems to be a pretty down year for prep kids in the state.
Baseball America’s Mock 4.0 6/8/26: Cholowosky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Again, same top 5 names. Nats at #11 once again projected to Grindlinger. In this mock, they’d leave Lebron, Reese, Hacopian on the list. I wonder if Hacopian would tempt them.
Conclusion: most of these mocks have the same 4-5 names within the top 5 picks.
Cholowsky: has been 1-1 on practically every mock draft
Emerson: nearly always in the top 2
Lackey: seems to be consistently the next player taken after Cholowsky/Emerson are done.
Lombard and Flora are the two names that most frequently round out the top 5, albeit sometimes with interlopers.
Names most frequently mocked to Nats at this point: Grindlinger, Hacopian, Burress, though in later mocks Burress is mostly gone by the time Nats pick at #11.
Roch Cholowsky leads the #1 ranked UCLA team into the post-season. Photo via BA
Its College Baseball post-season time, something we’ve followed in this space for years. Here’s a quick guide to the CWS 2026 post season. The field of 64 was announced on Memorial Day Weekend at Noon, so here’s a preview of this coming weekend’s 16 regional events.
Your top 8 seeds and favorites to make Omaha, in order, along with their D1Baseball Rank, RPI and their Strength of Schedule (SoS) denoted:
UCLA (51-6): D1Baseball #1, RPI #1, SoS #25
Georgia Tech (48-9): D1Baseball #2, RPI #2, SoS #15
Georgia (46-12): D1Baseball #3, RPI #7, SoS #24
Auburn (38-19), D1Baseball #5, RPI #3, SoS #1
North Carolina (45-11-1), D1Baseball #4, RPi #4, SoS #13
Texas (40-13) D1Baseball #6, RPI #5, SoS #9
Alabama (37-19). D1Baseball #16, RPI #6, SoS #3
Florida (39-19), D1Baseball #10, RPI #11, SoS #2
UCLA has put in one of the most dominant seasons we’ve seen in some time, and has never NOT been ranked #1 on any poll at any point during the season. They’re 51-6. here’s their 6 losses:
2/15/26 vs UC San Diego on the first Sunday of the season
2/24/26 vs San Diego State, a mid-week Tuesday game
4/14/26 vs UC Santa Barbara, another mid-week Tuesday game
4/26/26 vs Sacramento State, a Sunday series finale
5/9/26 vs Oregon, the Saturday game of their marquee series of the season
5/14/26 At Washington, the “Friday” game of their last league series of the season.
As for the rest of the top 8 seeds, Georgia Tech won the ACC tournament and #3 Georgia won the SEC tournament, so no surprise there. You can quibble slightly with Georgia’s RPI versus its ranking, but winning the SEC gives them that spot. Auburn gets seeded ahead of several other higher ranked SEC schools mostly because of its RPI and SoS, but they’re just 17-18 against Q1 schools, meaning I suspect they’ll be favored to get to Omaha but will go 2-out once they’re there. Same with Alabama, who is also .500 in Q1 games and is the only top 8 seed that seems to be out of line with their ranking. UNC is basically the 2nd best ACC team. Texas probably would have been above Auburn had they done better in the SEC tourney. Lastly we have Florida, who sneaks into a top 8 seed ahead of its rival Florida State, who has a slightly worse Q1 record and who lost too early in the ACC tourney.
The National seeds 9-16 and the other regional hosts go as follows:
#9: Southern Miss (44-15). D1baseball ranked #7, RPI #12, SoS #35.
#10: Florida State (38-17): D1Baseball ranked #12, RPI #8, SoS #5
#11: Oregon (40-16), D1Baseball ranked #15, RPI #15, SoS #29
#12: Texas A&M (39-14), D1Baseball #11, RPI #14, SoS #17
#13: Nebraska (42-15), D1Baseball #20, RPI #10, SoS #40
#14: Mississippi State (40-17), D1Baseball #17, RPI #13, SoS #7
#15 Kansas (42-16) D1baseball #13, RPI #19, SoS #60
#16 West Virginia (39-14), D1Baseball #9, RPI #17, SoS #56
Are there any hosting snubs here? Yeah probably. I’d say Arkansas has the biggest beef here: they’re ranked 14th, just made the SEC tourney final, are a bit depressed in RPI but have a 18-13 Q1 record. But it’s splitting hairs; who would you take out? WVA is screwed as the #16 seed playing into UCLA when they’re ranked top 10 and just made their conference final. Maybe Nebraska is a little weak here, but they won the Big 10 and have to get some props. The highest ranked RPI team not hosting is USC out in California … but they went just 1-11 in Q1 games.
Conference Breakdown
As usual, the SEC and ACC dominate the field with 12 and 9 teams respectively. Every team in the ACC with a 14-16 conference record or better made the field, which included a couple of arguable bubble teams in UVA and NC State. Meanwhile, the SEC got 12 teams in, including Kentucky with its 13-17 conference record ahead of Vanderbilt. Big12 got 6 teams and the Big 10 got 4 teams to round out the rest of the power conferences. Big Baseball conference Sun Belt got a record 5 teams as well, led by Southern Miss and joined by Coastal Carolina, Troy, Louisiana, South Alabama, and Texas State.
Local DC/MD/VA local teams in the tourney:
Once again, it is kind of a down year for DC/MD/VA baseball in terms of top-ranked teams; not one local team finished the year anywhere close to the top 25. UVA has some down-ballot votes but that’s it; they were shredded when their coach took a huge contract and left the program. Several local teams are in the field of 64 from the state however: Virginia, Virginia Tech, VCU, Liberty plus neighbor schools that usually have VA kids like West Virginia, ECU, CCU).
Snubs and Surprises in the field
The biggest snub seems to be Mercer; they’re RPI #28 and there’s a slew of at-large teams with lower ranks that got picked over them. their SoS hurts them, and they left themselves in jeopardy after getting upset in their conference tourney.
Quick Regional Thoughts
Here’s one sentence or so on each regional
UCLA should have no issues advancing; Virginia Tech gets a 3,000 mile flight to play in this regional.
Georgia Tech has to fend off a top 25 edge case team in Oklahoma but shouldn’t have any issues.
Georgia gets a weak ACC also ran in Boston College and Liberty; easy regional.
Auburn has to fend off UCF and a team in NC State that probably shouldn’t have made the field.
North Carolina gets a mid-pack SEC team in Tennessee and VCU. Tennessee has a late 1st round starter Tegan Kuhns who could cause issues if they save him, but UNC is favored here.
Texas has a joke of a regional with UCSB, Holy Cross, and Tarleton State. UCSB likely holds their 1st round pick Jackson Flora for the Texas matchup, but they don’t have much after him.
Alabama’s #2 seed is Oklahoma State, who can be plucky but not a challenge. They’re the most vulnerable of the top 8 seeds.
Florida gets their buddies Miami for a fun regional, but should advance. Florida and Miami met early in the season at Miami and Florida won both weekend games (the Sunday game got rained out).
Southern Miss has UVA in their regional, who would be a decent foe but who are a long ways from home. Some may think an ACC team is favored here, but Southern Miss is a tough team.
Florida State should have been a top 8 seed and will have to deal with Coastal Carolina’s ace Cameron Flukey to advance. But, Flukey can only pitch once, so advantage FSU.
Oregon has a cakewalk of a regional against two former Pac12 foes in Oregon State and Washington State.
Texas A&M has to be happy with their #2 being Southern California, who is an RPI darling who can’t beat any big teams (1-11 in Q1 games). Their #3 team Texas State might be more formidable.
Nebraska will struggle with SEC battle-tested Ole Miss in their bracket, along with the college baseball legends from Arizona State, who also has a 1st round projected starter who may get burned before they face Nebraska. Upset watch here, unless both Ole Miss and AZ State burn their aces in game one.
Mississippi State has to love this regional; Cincinnati and Louisiana? Really?
Kansas beat West Virginia for the Big 12 tourney title and for their trouble will get Arkansas, who likely blows them away.
West Virginia gets both an ACC and SEC team in Wake Forest and Kentucky. This should be a dog-fight. Wake as a #2 seed here is my slight favorite b/c of the strength of the conference.
Prospect Watch. By region, here’s some guys to watch that are like top 50 college prospects in this year’s draft:
UCLA regional: Roch Cholowsky is the leading 1-1 overall candidate for UCLA. UCLA also has a late 1st round arm in Logan Reddeman and 3B Roman Martin. 3 1st round talents will help you go 51-6.
Georgia Tech regional: GaTech’s catcher Vahn Lackey is likely going top 5. Drew Burress has been top5 in this cycle and has been mocked to the Nats in some drafts.
Georgia regional: (no 1st rounders in this regional)
Auburn regional: Auburn is led by 2B Chris Rembert, a late 1st rounder.
North Carolina regional: Tennessee’s ace is late 1st rounder Tegan Kuhns.
Texas regional: UCSB’s Jackson Flora is an upper 1st rounder.
Alabama regional: their SS and leading hitter is Justin Lebron, who might be in the mix for the Nats at #11.
Florida regional: Fla’s ace is Liam Peterson, likely the 2nd or 3rd arm off the board.
Southern Miss regional: UVA’s Eric Becker and AJ Gracia have 1st round buzz.
Florida State regional: Coastal Carolina’s ace Cameron Flukey is a mid 1st rounder.
Oregon regional: (no 1st rounders in this regional)
Texas A&M regional: TAMU is led by SS Chris Hacopian, who has mid 1st round projections. The Aggies also have a power hitting 1B in Gavin Grahovac, who may be end of 1st/supp-1st pick and another late 1st pick in Of Caden Sorrell.
Nebraska regional: Ole Miss’ ace is Cade Townsend and AZ State’s ace is Cole Carlon, who may meet in game one of the regional.
Mississippi State regional: Ace Reese for the hosts is a late 1st round 3B prospect.
Kansas regional: Arkansas’ ace is 1st rounder Hunter Dietz and they have 1st round Catcher prospect Ryder Helfrick as well.
West Virginia regional: Kentucky’s SS Tyler Bell is a 1st rounder.
Top 1st round prospects whose team outright missed the post season:
LSU had a shockingly bad year. Derek Curiel is likely a mid-1st rounder.
TCU just missed the bubble, so no post-season scouting of both their 1st round outfielders Sawyer Strosnider and Chase Brunson.
Louisville had a down year; OF Zion Rose is a late 1st rounder.
We’ll circle back next week with Regional recaps and Super Regional projections. We probably will also return with a check-in on the 1-1 candidates in our regular series.
More than a few mocks have us on Georgia Tech OF Drew Burress at #11. Photo via BA
It’s never too early to do a mock draft. Well, yes of course there is, but what’s the fun in that?
Here’s a smattering of super-early mock drafts and ranks that i’ve seen. I think these have value because they give you an idea of what the industry is hearing about the very top guys, plus we can see who’s highly ranked now but who may drop to the Nats #11 pick range (which has happened with us more than a few times to our great benefit, ahem, Anthony Rendon). These links run from December to the end of April.
For each mock i’ll list the top 5, then (if they go that deep) who they project to #11. I won’t repeat full names past first mention for space.
MLBPipeline’s first mock Dec 2025: Roch Cholowosky, Grady Emerson, Justin Lebron, Drew Burress, Jacob Lombard. Nats at #11 take Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
Baseball America’s first mock Dec 2025: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lebron, AJ Gracia (a 1B/OF from UVA), Derek Curiel. Nats at #11 take Ace Reese, 3B from Mississippi State.
Bleacher Report first mock Feb 2026: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lebron, Burress, Curiel. Nats take Peterson.
BA Staff Draft 3/23/26: Cholowosky, Lebron, Emerson, Lombard, Van Lackey (fast-rising C from Ga Tech). Nats at #11 take AJ Gracia from UVA.
BA Mock 2.0 4/13/26: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora. Nats at #11 get Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State. Big bat, projected pro 1B so has to keep hitting. Has been 5-6 in draft ranks in the class, but is a risk taking a non-premium position here. This pick also leaves leBron on the table, which is crazy to have said a month ago.
BA Staff Draft 2.0 4/27/26: Cholowsky , Emerson, Flora, Lackey, Lombard. Nats at #11 get Drew Burress, OF from Georgia Tech. Burress was top 5 early in the cycle and has dropped a bit. Understandable: he’s “only” slashing .360/.484/.611 as of 4/27/26 with more walks than Ks. (sarcasm). In their draft we leave the likes of Curiel, Lebron, and Reese on the table.
BA’s Top 400 Draft ranks 4/29/26; Ranks aren’t the same as mocks, but it is useful to see where BA ranks these players independent of team drafting proclivities. Their top 5: Cholosky, Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Lombard, and #11 on their board is Drew Burress, so that’s relatively consistent with the BA staff draft.
Conclusions: Cholowsky is #1 on every single mock, without fail. Not one pundit has moved him off the top, and his performance so far in the college season has kept him there. The major name flying up the board this spring is Van Lackey, and it seems like he’s going #2 or #3. Nearly everyone has prep phenoms Emerson and Lombard in their top 5 as well. The top arm now seems to be Flora across the board.
Falling out of top-5 contention and now likely in the conversation for the Nats pick at #11 include Burress, Lebron, Gracia, and Curiel primarily. Also throw in there Tyler Bell and Liam Peterson, both college guys who were ranked higher but have had injury issues this year. If Mike Rizzo was still drafting, I would almost bet money on him taking Derek Curiel if he was here, just based on how “famous” he is (he was a 1st round talent out of HS before becoming perhaps the wealthiest NIL player in the country at LSU). But the new crew went prep-heavy in 2025 and may do so again in 2026.
I don’t really see any prep kids right in the 10-12 range on any of these mocks, and our new front office may be looking to go young again. One mock has us taking Eric Booth, but others have him ranked in the 6-10 range and going before he drops to us. If you want to see who the highest ranked Prep kids are by BA, here’s that list. It goes Emerson, Booth, Lombard, relatively big gap, then Spangler (who has a strong commit to Stanford) and a LHP out of florida named Rojas who’ll be 19 at the draft and is a Miami commit. Neither of those seem like Nats guys, not when there’ll be a slew of college players that make sense. But, if they get slot savings at #11 on someone like Rojas who is ranked in the teens, that lets them throw money in later rounds at prep kids who have slipped, which is how we ended up with the likes of Harmon, Sime, James, Fitz-Gerald, Fien, Jones, etc.
UCLA’s Angel Cervantes turned down $2M to go to college. Will it pay off? Photo via UCLA
I’m a bit late to this post, but I thought i’d catch it up before we got too big into the 2026 draft prep.
A post-mortem to the 2025 MLB Draft is a recurring topic I write about in this space: top MLB draft picks getting drafted and turning down bonuses in order to go to college. Ever since we entered the draft pool bonus era started in 2012 (which is why this analysis starts in 2012), players not signing who were drafted in the top 10 rounds have been a relative rarity as compared to the decades prior.
2025 just passed and we saw (per the Baseball America link) the highest percentage of players signing overall in the history of the draft at 93.7%, and we still saw 2 top-10 round players refuse to sign.
This post tries to answer the question: “does it ever pay off for a player not to sign?” And I’ve added in the 2025 players for tracking and analysis going forward. Most of the older content is repeated, but is included for continuity, and if there’s an known update to older draft classes i’ve added it as necessary.
Let’s take a look. Here’s a summary of the last 14 years of players who were drafted but did not sign from the top 10 rounds. This analysis goes back to 2012, since that’s the beginning of the new draft bonus slot rules.
2014: 6 (two of which were Nats picks: Andrew Suarez and Austin Byler in that ill-fated draft class, and one more who didn’t sign thanks to Houston’s screwing up the Brady Aiken deal and who was eventually granted free agency).
2013: 8
2012: 8
In total, 52 total players picked in the top 10 rounds in the last 14 drafts failed to sign, more than half in the first four years of the construct as teams/players/agents were still getting used to the system. The number of players drafted in the top 10 rounds varies slightly from year to year, but its roughly 300 players a year times 14 seasons, so at least 4,200 players picked in that time and probably closer to 4,300 when you add in the dozens of supplemental and draft-compensation picks. Thus, 99% of the top 10 rounds of players generally sign, making these non-signers worth analyzing individually.
Before we get to individual player analysis, Here’s the better question: did these players make major mistakes by NOT signing and taking the money? Well the answer is … its complicated, and it depends on many factors.
Its a common refrain among pundits in the amateur baseball world (Keith Law in particular) that HS players should “take the money” if they’re drafted high enough. Certainly any first rounder would be a fool to turn away that kind of money, and mostly any prep player offered something in the upper 6 figure range should give serious consideration. MLB contracts generally include college tuition … so even if you sign out of HS you still have 4 years fully paid for in case you wash out. So instead of gambling on your health, or the fickleness of the baseball draft (where one bad start can cost you 30 spots in the draft and millions of dollars), take the cash when its offered.
However, the conversation has morphed over the years as the rules have changed an college baseball has evolved. D1 programs now can offer 34 full scholarships (for years it was 12.5 so even very good players only had partial deals). Colleges have become much better at player development and a lot of the arm-thrashing behavior has been rooted from the game as journalists call out these grizzled dinosaur coaches for their behavior. Juco baseball has vastly improved so players can go there for a year and not commit to three years at a D1 program. Transfer rules are greatly relaxed, so if you head to a school and get pigeonholed on the bench or in a role you don’t like, you can just move to a better opportunity with no penalties.
And then there’s the elephant in the room: Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) considerations. Starting in 2021, colleges were free to begin offering NIL money to its athletes, but the floodgates really opened up in 2025 with the House vs NCAA settlement. Most people think NIL is just a football and basketball issue, but there’s absolutely D1 baseball programs that are cashing in (no pun intended). It’s difficult to get official numbers, but there’s rumors of the biggest programs are throwing around big enough money to impact Prep prospect decisions in the draft.
For the 2026 draft, let’s take Derek Curiel as an example: he opted out of the 2024 draft (where he was a projected as a mid-1st rounder so about a $5M bonus) to head to LSU, one of the biggest (if not THE biggest program) in the sport. He’s been added to a new “blue ribbon elite” deal and has officially disclosed merchandise deals; and most analysts put his NIL earnings at “mid-to-upper six figures.” If we assume that means $750k, he’s netted $1.5M for his two years at LSU, got some college fun-time, got a national title, and now is probably a top 5 pick, projecting to the $7M range. He’s earned 100x what he would have earned as a minor leaguer and increased his bonus value in two years. Can’t beat that.
And, if you think Curiel is an outlier, read this Baseball America story about the biggest NIL deals coaches have heard of … and most of these were transfer portal deals, of big schools (ahem, SEC schools) poaching talent from mid-majors, often for $500k deals or more. Full ride guaranteed, $500k in your pocket; why would you sign as a 5th rounder for a fraction of that if those kind of figures are out there?
LSU is not the only example here spending big money in baseball: Vanderbilt has always been a big spender on baseball, leveraging internal programs to augment its athletic scholarships for years. Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida are all known as big spenders as well. It’s no surprise they’re all SEC teams.
So, all that said, lets look at the empirical evidence of every player since 2012 who has forgone the cash to see if there’s any trends.
(a caveat here: I did not look at the dollar amounts in every case; this is basically draft round analysis. Its possible that a 5th rounder in one year went in the 8th the next and got offered more money … but its quite rare with the new draft rules and bonus pools).
Angel Cervantes, a prep RHP from Lynwood, California (right in the heart of Los Angeles county), who was generally ranked in the 45-50 area on draft boards. Pittsburgh drafted him right at his projection, 50th overall in the 2nd round, bonus slot of $1.93M. He failed to sign and honored his commitment to UCLA, which is just 13 miles from his home. Pittsburgh’s GM seemed aware that Cervantes may not sign when interviewed after the fact, and Pittsburgh will get a comp pick in the 2026 draft. They took that 1.93 and were able to spread some of it around to two lesser prep kids in the teens, but seemed to leave money on the table in the end. Cervantes wasn’t listed as a “strong college commit” in the scouting report at the time, and this seems like something of a shock. UCLA isn’t known as a major NIL school so it seems unlikely he’s making back $2M in three years at the school. UCLA is projecting to be a favorite to win the 2026 NCAA title, is his home town college, and Pittsburgh is not exactly a desirable franchise, all which may be factors. The Daily Bruin had a long article discussing this decision as well.
Mason Ligenza, a prep Lefty OF from a rural Pennsylvania school, drafted in 6th round by the Dodgers with a slot value of $317k. He chose to honor his commitment to Pittsburgh instead of signing. There’s little information out there about why Ligenza made this decision; perhaps it wasn’t enough money to forgo going to college and he’s staying relatively close to home. U-Pittsburgh isn’t exactly a baseball power house, so it seems unlikely he’s vastly going to improve on his draft stock in the near term.
Verdict: too early to tell for both. Gut feeling: Cervantes ignoring $2M may be a mistake, while Ligenza’s projected bonus probably wasn’t enough to compel him to turn pro.
Tyler Bell, a prep SS from an IL HS. Drafted in 2nd-supp (#66 overall), slot value of $1.26M. Failed to come to terms with Tampa Bay. Based on some quick googling, it looks like Tampa offered him around $1.5M to sign but got other over-slot guys to sign before Bell would, which cost them the overage it likely would have taken. Bell was a top100 draft prospect and went to Kentucky and will be a draft-eligible sophomore in 2026. 2026 update: Bell is projected top 10 pick heading into the season, but suffered a shoulder injury opening day which may hamper his draft stock.
Chris Levonas, a prep RHP from a NJ HS. Drafted one pick after Bell as a 2nd round Supp (#67). Slot value: $1.23M. He was a higher ranked prospect than Bell, and he and Milwaukee couldn’t come to terms. Per my google research, Milwaukee had $3M to offer him, but Levonas was a significant prospect and decided to honor his commitment to Wake Forest. We don’t know if he turned down $1.23M, $3M or something in-between. The higher the number though, the higher the risk. 2026 update: Levonas was a mid-week starter for Wake in 2025, and had a sterling 2026 debut going 6 no-hit innings with 14Ks over Loyola Marymount. He’s at Wake til the 2027 draft.
Ryan Prager, a college junior LHP from Texas A&M. Los Angeles picked him in the 3rd round with a slot value of $948k. Per reporting in the Athletic, Prager was pretty open with teams about being open to coming back to school, earning his degree, and seeing if he could help TAMU get back to the title game. No numbers were discussed, but it sounds like the Angels drafted him without understanding his requirements nor what it would take to sign. Not terribly surprising given the Angel’s reputation in the industry. 2026 update: he regressed for TAMU in 2025, and he dropped to the 9th round, signing for $197k, far below his 3rd round slot the year before. Currently in the minors. That year cost him nearly $800k
Jaxon Jelkin, a college junior RHP from Houston. The Mets drafted him in the 9th round (slot value $196,700). There’s not a lot of information out there. MLB’s scouting report notes that he made 7 starts for Houston then blew out his UCL, requiring TJ. They also note he was “dismissed” from Nebraska’s two years ago and has “severe makeup concerns.” Reportedly NY didn’t even make him a contract offer. 2026 Update: he sat out all of 2025, did not get drafted, and is on Kentucky’s 2026 roster. He’s their Friday night starter and has dominated in his first few starts of the season. It’s still early, and as a 5th year senior he has no leverage, but he’s definitely projecting to improve on his 2024 slot.
Conclusion: still too early to tell for Bell, Levonas, Jelkin. Prager lost money in the deal but gained a 4th year/degree hopefully.
About Levonas, I’ll say this: if you’re a prep player who gets offered $3M … you made a mistake not taking it. If indeed Levonas got that offer. Is he guaranteed to be a 1st rounder in three years?
Caden Kendle, a Jr OF from UC-Irvine taken in the 10th round by St. Louis. He apparently agreed to a $175k bonus (around 10k over slot), but then had a change of heart and decided to go back to school for his senior season.
Verdict: He refused a $175k, played another year, got drafted in the 5th round of 2024 and signed an under-slot deal for $147k. So, he lost money, and a year of pro development. He may have gained a college degree though, so that’s good.
Nolan McLean, a draft-eligible sophomore two-way player from Oklahoma State (RHP and 3B) who was picked by the Orioles at the top of the 3rd round. Baltimore found an issue in his medicals, so McLean went back to school. Slot bonus figure: $794k. Its unclear what bonus figure they agreed upon. McLean went back to school, and was picked again in the 3rd round in 2023, dropping 10 slots and signing for $747K with the Mets.
Brandon Sproat, a RHP sophomore from Florida, failed to sign with the Mets as a 3rd rounder (slot value $691k) for reasons unknown. He went back to school, then (amazingly) agreed to a re-draft by the Mets in 2023, who picked him in the 2nd round and signed him for $1.47M. Sproat also appears later on in this post because he refused to sign out of HS as well.
Brock Rodden, a 2B junior from Wichita State, failed to sign as a 10th rounder with Oakland (slot value: $151.3k). He went back to school, got drafted as a 5th rounder in 2023 and signed for $200k.
Verdict: McLean was not penalized for not signing, but it wasn’t really his choice since the team reneged. Sproat more than doubled his bonus offer from last year, and Rodden improved his by likely 25%. So, all three guys “worked out” in the end.
Kumar Rocker, RHP Vanderbilt, in a well publicized blow-up, the Mets drafted Rocker 10th overall and made a huge splash announcing a $6M over-slot bonus .. then ran into issues with his medicals, resulting in the two sides failing to agree on anything and the Mets passing on the Vanderbilt star altogether. Rocker’s agent (ahem, “advisor”) Scott Boras of course refused to make his medicals available ahead of time, and of course claimed that there was no injury, but the subsequent findings vindicated the Met’s decision. Rocker had shoulder surgery in the fall of 2021, then pitched in Indy ball in 2022 before shockingly getting drafted by the Rangers with the 3rd overall pick in 2022. He signed for $5.2M, well below the slot value, and well below the $6M he agreed to in 2021, but he was still an upper 1st rounder. He pitched in the fall league, then made a handful of starts in 2023 before …. tearing his UCL and having Tommy John. So, Perhaps the Mets were right all along. 2025 Update: He finally got a run with Texas in 2025 and was awful: 14 starts, 5.74 ERA. Two arm injuries in 5 years is tough.
Jud Fabian, OF Florida; saw his draft stock fall from a possible top-5 pick all the way out of the first round. But, he apparently had a $3M deal with Baltimore in the second, but those plans were foiled when Boston selected him at the beginning of the 2nd round. Fabian stuck to his bonus demands, and the two sides could not reach an agreement. Fabian went back to school and was a Comp-B pick in 2022, signing for $1.03M.
Alex Ulloa, prep SS from Texas failed to come to terms with Houston as a 4th round pick. Ulloa bailed out of an Oklahoma State commitment, went to Yavapai College Juco … and went undrafted in 2022 altogether. Again in 2023, but he did get a commit to U of Miami for 2024, his junior season. Failed to get drafted in 2024 altogether, now at Florida International. 2026 update: Ulloa is now at Wichita State, his 4th college, and has started the season well. As he should, since he’s 23.
Verdict: Rocker couldn’t beat $6M but still got $5.2M as damaged goods, so its hard to say he made a bad decision (not that it was entirely his to make with the Mets pulling the offer). Fabian lost out on $2M of bonus money, but we don’t know what money he turned down from Boston (odds are he lost out on the deal). Ulloa’s slot value was $492k in 2021; we don’t know what he was offered in 2021, but we went completely undrafted in 2022, so it seems safe to say he has lost out on money, since it seems incredibly unlikely he’ll get picked that high again as a 5th year junior or whatever he is in 2026.
2020: in a shortened 5-round Covid-related draft, not one player picked in the 5 rounds failed to sign.
2019: 2 players did not sign from the top 10 rounds
Brandon Sproat, RHP Fla HS 7th/205 overall by Texas. $222,100 slot value, which wasn’t enough to buy Sproat out of his commitment to Florida. As we’ve already seen, Sproat and signability was also an issue in 2022, but he did eventually sign in 2023 for a ton of money.
Wyatt Hendrie, C from Calif Juco 10th/312 overall by Chicago Cubs. $142,200 slot value. Cubs seemingly ran into slot issues with both 10th and 11th rounder, and Hendrie wouldn’t take under slot. Hendrie went undrafted in 2020’s shortened draft, but then was picked in the 7th in 2021 and signed for $177,500 out of San Diego State.
Verdict: both players ended up making money by not signing; Sproat a ton, Hendrie a little bit.
Carter Stewart, RHP Fla HS. 1st/8th overall. Atlanta didn’t like Physical, offered 40% of slot value ($1.9M); initially slated to Mississippi State. Update: However, he did an about face, went to a Juco instead with the plan on re-entering the 2019 draft. When he struggled in Juco and fell to a mid 2nd round projection … he attempted an end-around of the MLB draft rules and signed to play in japan, a situation I detailed in this space. By 2021 he had graduated the Japan minor leagues into their majors, and his stats as of 2023 seem pretty solid (as a 23yr old he has a sub 2.00 ERA for his team Softbank). 2026 update: he was dominant in 2024 but missed the entire 2025 season with injury. He’s signed in japan through 2026, at which point he may come back.
Matt McLain: 2B Calif HS. 1st/25: Asked $3M, Arizona offered $2.6M didn’t budge, going to UCLA. Update: picked 17th overall in the 2021 draft and signed for $4.63M. Huge gamble and huge win. One of the few Prep guys to turn down that amount of money and eventually get more.
JT Ginn: RHP Miss HS. 1st/30th: LA dodgers offered $2.4M, asking $2.9M, going to Mississippi State. Update: drafted 2nd round/52nd overall in 2020 draft, signed for $2.9M with the Mets in a well over-slot deal. So two years later he got his asking number.
Gunnar Hoglund: LHP Fla HS. 1supp/36: Pittsburgh didn’t like physical, low-balled and he declined. going to Ole Miss. 2021; was projected as a top 10 pick, hurt his arm, had TJ but still got drafted 19th overall by Toronto and signed for $3.25M. Big win.
McLean drastically improved his stock, Ginn got what he wanted, and Hoglund (despite his injury) got paid. I already detailed in a separate post why I think Stewart’s deal is smart.
Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Oregon State, 1s/31st overall. Failed to sign with Tampa, who (I guess) didn’t like his medicals. He was coming back from TJ and only had a few weeks of action before the draft. Update: Went 6th round in 2018 to Milwaukee.
Jack Conlon, RHP, Clements HS (Sugar Land, Texas). 4th round/128 overall. Failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Texas A&M. Update: left TAMU, went to San Jacinto, then enrolled in Rice and sat out 2020. However, he wasn’t on the 2021 roster, and its unclear where he’s playing at this point. He seems to be out of baseball at this point.
Jo Jo Booker, RHP, Miller HS (Brewton, Ala.). 5th round/145 overall. failed to sign with LA Angels, went to South Alabama. Ended up playing 5 full seasons for South Alabama, was never drafted, posted an ERA north of 6.00 his 5th year, and is likely out of baseball.
Two players who ended up playing themselves out of any bonus dollars. Rasmussen didn’t turn down the Rays as much as they refused to tender him a contract … they must have tendered him something because they got a comp pick in 2018 draft. So he turned down 40% of first round money in 2017 to sign an under-slot deal in the 6th round of 2018 ($135k, just $10k more than the non-top 10 rounds minimum). I’d say this was a bad move by the player unless Tampa flat out refused to pay a dollar.
Verdict: 1 worsened his draft position, 2 missed out on any draft money.
Nick Lodolo: 1S/41st overall; LHP from Damien HS in California. failed to sign with Pittsburgh, went to TCU instead, draft eligible in 2019. In 2021, drafted 7th overall, signed for $5.43M.
Tyler Buffett: 7th/217 overall; RHP, failed to sign with Houston. returned to Oklahoma State, drafted in 6th round in 2017 and signed with Cincinnati
Lodolo went to school (an arm-shredder program in TCU even) and went from 41st overall to 7th overall, with probably 3x the bonus. Furthermore, by 2021 he was one of the best pitching prospects in the game. Meanwhile Buffett improved his draft position one round by going back to school.
Verdict: 1 drastically improved his draft pick and money, 1 improved his draft position one round.
2015: 6 guys did not sign.
Kyle Funkhouser: 1st/35th overall: RHP from Louisville, failed to sign with LA Dodgers, turning down an above-slot $2M. 4th rounder in 2016, signed with Detroit.
Brady Singer, 2nd/56th overall: RHP Florida HS. failed to sign with Toronto, went to Florida and was 1st rounder in 2018, signed with Kansas City
Jonathan Hughes, 2nd/68th overall: RHP Georgia HS. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Georgia Tech and not even drafted in 2018…
Kyle Cody, 2nd/73rd overall: RHP U Kentucky. failed to sign with Minnesota, drafted in 6th round in 2016 and signed with Texas
Nicholas Shumpert, 7th/220th overall. SS Colorado HS. failed to sign with Detroit. Went to San Jacinto CC, drafted in 28th round 2016 by Atlanta and signed.
Kep Brown, 10th/311 overall. RF South Carolina HS, failed to sign with LA Dodgers. went to Juco, then to UNC-Wilmington, not drafted in 2018.
Funkhouser was the biggest “whoops” here; a poor spring took him from his pre-season top 10 draft position all the way out of the first round, but he still demanded upper 1st round money. He didn’t get it … and then fell to the 4th round the next year. That was a big fail. Singer clearly improved on his 2nd round status by going to college. Cody slipped from being a 2nd rounder to a 6th rounder. The other three guys drastically fell on draft boards; one of them going from a 10th rounder to not even being drafted.
Verdict: 1 improved, 5 hurt draft stock
2014: 6 failed to sign
Brady Aiken: 1/1 overall, RHP from San Diego HS. failed to sign with Houston, went to IMG Academy in FL, drafted 1/17 by Cleveland
Andrew Suarez: 2nd/57 overall LHP from U-Miami, failed to sign with Washington. Drafted 2nd round/61st overall in 2015 by San Francisco
Trevor Megill; 3rd/104th overall RHP from Loyola Marymount. failed to sign with Boston, drafted 7th/207 in 2015 draft and signed with San Diego
Jacob Nix: 5th/136 RHP from Los Alomitos HS; couldn’t sign when Tampa lost bonus money, sued, FA, signed with San Diego
Zack Zehner: 7th/204 OF from Cal Poly, failed to sign with Toronto. Drafted 18th round 2015 and signed with NYY
Austin Byler, 9th/274 1B from nevada-Reno. failed to sign with Washington, drafted 11th round in 2015 and signed with Arizona
Aiken became quite the rarity; the first #1 overall baseball pick to fail to sign in 30 years. But his lack of signing cascaded and cost the Astros both their 5th rounder Nix and another player later on thanks to the new draft rules on bonus pools; Nix ended up being declared a FA in a face-saving move by MLB so as not to admit that their new bonus cap circumvention rules were BS. Aiken had no where to go but down from 1-1 so he obviously cost himself money. The others all fell, if only slightly in Suarez’s case.
Verdict: 1 didn’t count, 5 lowered draft stock
2013: 8 failed to sign
Phil Bickford: 1/10 RHP California HS. Toronto failed to sign. went to Southern Nevada juco, drafted 1/18 by SF and signed.
Matt Krook 1s/35 LHP calif HS. Miami failed to sign, went to Oregon State, drafted 4th round by SF in 2016
Ben DeLuzio 3rd/80 SS from Fla HS. Miami failed to sign. Went to Florida State, played 4 years … undrafted out of college, NDFA with Arizona
Ben Holmes, 5th /151 LHP Oregon State. Philly failed to sign. went 9th round in 2014
Jason Monda 6th/181 OF Washington State. Philly failed to sign … then accused him of NCAA violations. he wasn’t drafted again and quit to go to Med school
Stephen Woods 6th/188 RHP NY HS: Tampa failed to sign, went to Suny-Albany, drafted 8th round 2016 by SF and signed
Dustin DeMuth 8th/230 3B from Indiana, Minnesota failed to sign, became 5th rounder in 2014 and signed with Milwaukee
Ross Kivett 10th/291 2B from kansas State. Cleveland failed to sign, became 6th rounder in 2014 and signed with Detroit
Bickford fell 8 slots year over year but still fell. DeMuth and Kivett both improved their stock. The rest fell, drastically in some cases.
Verdict: 2 improved, 6 fell
2012: 8 failed to sign
Mark Appel 1/8 RHP Stanford by Pittsburgh. failed to sign, was 1/1 in 2013 with Houston
Teddy Stankiewicz 2/75 RHP from Texas Hs. failed to sign with Mets, went Juco, 2/45 in 2013 by Boston
Alec Rash, 2/95 by Philadelphia from IA HS. went to Missouri, 2015 drafted in 23rd round by Washington but still didn’t sign; quit baseball and started playing NCAA basketball
Kyle Twomey, 3/106 LHP Calif HS Oakland. Drafted 13th round 3 yrs later out of USC by Chicago Cubs.
Brandon Thomas 4/136 OF from Ga Tech; didn’t sign with Pittsburgh, drafted 8th round one year later and signed with NYY
Colin Poche 5/162 LHP texas h s. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Dallas Baptist, undrafted Jr year, drafted 14th round 2016 by Arizona
Nick Halamandaris 8/251 1B Calif HS. failed to sign with Seattle, played 4 years at cal, undrafted jr and Sr year, NDFA with Seattle, played one season
L.J. Mazzilli 9/280 2B from UConn. 4th rounder in 2013 signed with NY Mets
Appel managed to improve from 8th overall to 1st overall. Stankiewicz also improved his stock about a round’s worth. Mazzilli improved from a 9th rounder to a 4th rounder. The others all fell.
Verdict: 3 up, 5 down.
Summary: of the 52 players who failed to sign, passing judgement even on the players where its far too early to really tell (below figures now updated to the 2025 draft):
31 hurt their draft stock by failing to sign (15 HS, 16 coll)
15 improved their draft stock/money
1 didn’t really count b/c of the Houston 2014 draft bonus shenanigans (Jacob Nix, HS)
5 from 2024/2025 too early yet to tell.
So, 2 out of every 3 times a kid turns down the money they’re costing themselves in the long run. But, its also worth noting that a huge percentage of these players who declined to sign were at the very beginning of the new rules … in the last few years, the success rate of players has gone way up. I attribute it to players now understanding better the rules of the system.
Roch Cholowsky is looking like the consensus 1-1 pick in the draft. Photo via BA
Here’s an early check-in for the top of the 2026 draft class. We first published a look right after the 2026 MLB draft order was determined and the Nats settled into the #11 spot, so we may not have a shot at the very top names here, but it’s likely one of these guys may be who we end up with at #11.
I’ll split the players into college and prep, and delineate between players who have consistently been in the early 1-1 talk versus those who have fallen out of the discussions.
Our new regime does not seem to be scared of picking Prep players, so unlike in year’s past I’m going to have to focus more on the prep guys. And, there’s significant news on that front, as one of the best Prep kids in the 2027 HS class just reclassified to 2026, putting another intriguing name out there. Read more about him in the Prep section.
College Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1
Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA. D1-AA 2025 as Soph. BA’s College POTY in 2025 as a Sophomore, clear 1-1 candidate in early 2026 draft considerations. Only 60-grade guy on the board from ProspectsLive. #1 on MLBpipeline’s first list, called consensus 1-1. D1 pre-season AA. He’s certainly hit the 2026 season running: through his first 7 games he’s slashing .393/.486/1.143 with 6 homers and a fantastical 1.626 OPS figure. Two of those homers came against TCU’s ace in the big top-10 matchup last weekend, so it’s not like he’s padding his stats against mid-week guys.
Cameron Flukey, RHP Coastal Carolina. D1 3rd team AA 2025 as Soph, Fri starter for CCU CWS team. 2nd best arm in pitching-weak draft class. D1 pre-season AA. BA has him #3 in Feb 2026
Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara: helium guy early 2026 spring, BA has him top 5.
Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama: .316/.421/.636 line with 18 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 2025. #3 on MLBP’s first board. D1 pre-season AA 2nd team (1st team was Cholowsky).
College Candidates who have fallen out of 1-1 contention
I like this section, because many of these names are going to be there at #11 overall if the draft board falls our way.
Drew Burress, CF, Georgia Tech. D1-AA 2025 as Soph. #2 on ProspectsLive Sept2025 board, undersized 5’9″ but good EV, lefty, fast. Slight concerns on CF vs Corner. Some disagreement in the industry on rank; some have top 10, others further down. D1 pre-season AA.
Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida; leading college Arm of the class. 6’5″ upper 90s. 2x Team USA pitcher. Up to #4 on BA’s list Oct2025, but #13 on MLBpipeline’s list. Did not make D1 pre-season AA at any level; curious. Struck out 12 in his 2026 debut.
Derek Curiel, OF, LSU: .345/.470/.519 as starting Freshman/lead off hitter in 2025, draft-eligible as Sophomore in 2026. Playing CF for LSU in 2026, should stay there as long/lanky 6’2 180 guy. power limited, but great hit tool. D1 pre-season AA.
AJ Gracia, OF (corner) UVA via duke: big corner-bopper bat profile, transferring to UVA from Duke with their new coach, starting to get top-5 buzz. D1 pre-season AA
Chris Hacopian, SS, Texas A&M; 3B in the pros, 6’1″ some defensive questions but big bat.
Daniel Cuvet, 3B, Miami. D1-AA 2025 as Soph. D1 pre-season AA.
Lucas Moore, OF, Louisville: D1-2nd team AA 2025 as Soph
Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas. D1 pre-season AA. .305/.420/.616 as a Sophmore.
High School Upper 1st round names in the mix for 1-1
Grady Emerson, SS, Argyle HS (TX). Texas commit. BA’s #1 ranked HS 2026 draft prospect in 2025. U18 USA baseball team 2025. Remains top HS prep player in MLBPipeline’s first rankings. BA’s #2 overall player Feb2026
Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep HS (FL); UMiami commit, big baseball factory HS. Projected top 10, rising. BA has him #6 in Feb2026.
Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle HS, Concord (CA): Stanford commit, 6’3″ free swinger, may move to 3B, solid defender. Up to #3 on BA’s oct2025 board, down to #10 on BA’s board Feb2026.
Jared Grindlinger, LHP, Huntington Beach HS (CA). Was the #3 player in the 2027 class, reclassified in mid February 2026 to the 2026 class and is now immediately in the upper 1st round conversation. As of this writing he’s yet to even turn 17 … which means he’s going to be incredibly young for the class, even with the reclassification, and this kind of youth really plays in some analytics models. At current; he’s 6’3″ 185, can hit 96 from the left hand side. He’s been on every UXX National team since he was 12.
High School guys whose stock has fallen:
Kevin Roberts, RHP/OF Jackson Prep (FL): same HS as Konnor Griffen, huge guy 6’5″ Florida commit, primarily hitter but can hit 94-95 on mound as well.
Rocco Maniscalco SS/2B (Oxford, Ala., HS). Reclassified to 2026, won’t turn 17 until May 2025, super young.
Did Kyle Tucker need a QO to get paid this past off season? I don’t think so. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
Just as spring training started, the final Qualifying-offer Attached Free Agent still on the market (Zac Gallen) finally signed, completing this year’s slate of QO-attached players.
As I’ve done in the past, let’s take a quick peek at the system and the players that tested it this year, talk about the impact the signings will have on the 2026 draft, and opine in general about how short sighted the entire system continues to be.
Here’s a quick overview of the 13 players who took Qualifying Offers this past off-season and what happened:
Year
Player
Old Team
New Team
Draft Pick Forfeited
Signing Date
New Contract
AAV change
Q.O. Screw the player?
2025
Kyle Tucker
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers
3-108, 4-138
1/15/2026
4yr/$240M
37.795
No
2025
Bo Bichette
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Mets
none
1/16/2026
3yr/$126M
19.795
No
2025
Framber Valdez
Houston Astros
Detroit
2-69
2/6/2026
3yr/$115M
16.125
No
2025
Kyle Schwarber
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
n/a
12/9/2025
5yrs/$150M
7.795
No
2025
Shota Imanaga
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
n/a
11/18/2025
1yr/$22.205M
8.955
No
2025
Ranger Suarez
Philadelphia Phillies
Boston Red Sox
2-62, 5-0159
1/14/2026
5yr/$130M
3.795
No
2025
Dylan Cease
San Diego Padres
Toronto
2-73, 5-178
11/26/2025
7yr/$210M (with deferrals)
7.795
No
2025
Edwin Diaz
New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
2-74, 5-179
12/9/2025
3yr/$69M
0.795
No
2025
Trent Grisham
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
n/a
11/18/2025
1yr/$22.205M (with deferrals)
17.205
No
2025
Michael King
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
n/a
12/19/2025
3yr/$75M
2.795
No
2025
Zac Gellen
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
n/a
2/13/2016
1yr/$22.205M
0
Sort of
2025
Brandon Woodruff
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
n/a
11/1/2025
1yr/$22.205M
13.455
No
2025
Gleyber Torres
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
n/a
11/1/2025
1yr/$22.205M
7.205
No
The 2025 QO class differed from many of the previous classes in that many ended up resigning with their original team. Of the 13 who filed initially:
4 took the QO
Another 3 resigned with their original teams.
Of the remaining 6 players who did move teams and burn draft picks, for the most part they signed massive deals. Tucker: $60M aav. Bichette? $42M AAV. Valdez? $38M AAV. Schwarber signed a 5yr $150M deal to be an aging DH in Philly.
So, I ask you. Who is this system protecting, exactly? Every one of the 13 guys who filed signed for an AAV of at least the QO offer itself, and there’s only one of the 13 players who you can legitimately say was ‘screwed” by the QO this off season (Zac Gellen, who ended up returning to his original team and signed for the QO figure, albeit with deferrals).
Some of the players getting offered QOs were just stupid: Trent Grisham had a walk-year AAV of just $5M; he probably couldn’t wait to sign the QO at $22M to more than quadruple his salary to stay with the same team, and thus enter FA next season completely unrestricted. Same with Brandon Woodruff; he increased his year over year salary by $13M with this little one-year QO pillow contract.
Meanwhile, big market teams made a mockery of the system. The Dodgers signed two QO attached players and thus forfeited their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th highest draft picks. Other teams who didn’t seem to care about the picks lost? The Mets, Boston, Toronto, and Detroit; basically three of the biggest spenders in the game plus a Detroit team who knows full well this is a make-or-break season with Skubal going into his final season.
All in all, 11 draft picks were forfeited by the various teams, which countered a few comp picks but which definitely will result in the Nats getting cracks at slightly better players than they would have otherwise. The Nats ended up gaining a few slots in their 3rd round and higher thanks to forfeited 2nd rounders, and move up a bit more in the 5th an beyond as well. Will drafting 77th overall in the 2nd make a difference versus drafting 81st? Perhaps. Not as much as if we had retained 3rd overall, but those are the breaks.
All that said, I just have to say… what are we doing here?
I understand the original concept of the QO system and what it tried to fix. If you remember, there used to be “Class A” and “Class B” free agents that would cost their signing teams higher or lower draft picks depending on their value (Class A picks would cost a team its 1st round draft pick, as the Nats did a number of times (we gave up a 17th overall pick in 2016 to sign Daniel Murphy, we gave up a 30th overall pick to sign Max Scherzer in 2015, and the one that continues to get me, we gave up 28th rounder in 2013 to sign Rafael Soriano). The main problem with this A/B system was that certain types of players (mainly decent relievers) would get tagged with a Class A label, and no team wanted to give up a 1st rounder for a middle reliever.
However. What this system does now is basically “protect” a very, very small class of players who mostly don’t need protecting. Kyle Tucker was always going to sign for a massive amount of money; he didn’t need “protection” from a Qualifying Offer. Nor did most of the players in this system this year.
I think this system exposes a pretty severe flaw in the MLBPA’s general approach to labor issues. As a union, they focus way, way too much on the issues facing its veterans and not nearly enough on its younger players. The guy about to sign a 9-figure deal who has opt outs and hotel suites negotiated into his contract doesn’t need Union protection; its the 6year player getting taken to arbitration over $100k who has one shot at a decent FA contract.
In the last CBA negotiations, the Union used the QO system more as a bargaining chip than something it really wanted. MLB owners want an international draft and pinned that to the QO system. The union, even as short sighted as it sometimes appears, does know that an international draft has a likely severe impact on Latin American markets (just as baseball managed to kill baseball development in Puerto Rico), so we continue to have the system today. Is the draft pick penalty enough? Apparently not when the smartest team in the sport (The Dodgers) willfully blow their entire 2026 draft to sign two marquee FAs with QOs attached.
I dunno. I sense we’re in for a long off-season of labor issues anyway, having nothing to do with the QO and having everything to do with revenue sharing, salary caps, and RSN collapses. I’m not sure this QO system is going to be a priority to fix. But if the Union can trade QOs for maybe getting to FA a year earlier or more realistic salaries in arbitration, maybe its worth pursuing.
