Nationals Arm Race

Former Kansas standout Cameron Selik has been a find for the Hagerstown rotation in 2011.

Turn #2 through the minor league rotations has completed.  Here’s a look at our starters.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Tuesday 4/12 game reviews
• Wednesday 4/13 game reviews (DHs for Hagerstown and Potomac)
• Thursday 4/14 game reviews (DH for Syracuse)
• Friday 4/15 game reviews
• Saturday 4/16 game reviews (mostly rainouts; lots of DHs on sunday)

Good

• Taylor Jordan finally gets his turn in the Hagerstown rotation and pitches very effectively; 5IP 2H 0R 1BB 5K.  Not bad for a 5th starter in low-A.
• Paul Demny put up a nice line in a ND on a cold night on 4/13: 5 2/3, 1ER, 3 hits and 1bb with 4ks.  The one earned run was inherited and allowed to score by Paul Demmin who relieved him in the 6th and allowed a game-tying homer.
• Cameron Selik escaped a rough 1st inning and cruised for another 4, pitching 5 shut out innings for the 2nd outing in a row.  Final line: 5ip, 4hits, 2bbs, 0runs and 5ks.  Can’t beat a 0.00 era through 2 starts.
• Ross Detwiler‘s 2nd start was still good, albeit not quite as dominant as his first.  Line: 6IP 6H 1ER 2BB 4K.  Most of the hits were singles, well scattered.
• Erik Davis threw a shortened start (having been originally scheduled to go two days prior, only to have his game rained out).  Final line: 4IP 3H 0R 2BB 6K.  I’ll take 6ks in 4 innings in AA any day.
• Another good start for Potomac Ace Denny Rosenbaum, though his bullpen conspired to blow his Win.  Line: 5IP 5H 1R 1ER 2BB 6K.

Bad

• Jimmy Barthaimer‘s spot start in Harrisburg went badly: 2⅔ IP 5H 5ER 3BB 4K.  I like the K rate but 5 earned runs in 2 and 2/3s gave him the loss.
• Brad Meyers couldn’t follow up his gem and was touched for 9 hits in 4 2/3 inning in a loss on 4/13.  Final line: 4 2/3, 9hits, 4er, 5ks, 0bbs.  On the bright side, no walks and 60 of 84 pitches for strikes.
• Paul Applebee was hit hard in his Hagerstown spot start on 4/13: 4 2/3ip, 6hits, 5 runs, 2 walks and he gave up two gopher balls.   Oddly, the two homers were given up to the #8 hitter and the leadoff hitter in quick succession.
• Matt Grace got shelled on 4/14; 4IP 11H 6R 6ER 1BB 1K 2HR.  Not an impressive follow up to his first start.
• Garrett Mock continued to show why his retention is questioned by some observers.  He walked 7 of the 20 batters he faced and failed to get out of the 4th inning despite throwing 91 pitches (only 47 of which were for strikes).  He even threw in a balk to boot.  Final line on 4/15: 3⅔ IP 2H 3R 3ER 7BB 2K.  His frustration was evident; getting ejected in the 7th inning while sitting in the dugout.
• Ryan Tatusko followed up a shaky first start with a downright awful one: 3⅔ IP 10H 7R 7ER 3BB 2K on friday.  10 hits and 3 walks meant that 13 of the 23 batters he faced reached base.  That’s really tough to do.
• Christopher McKenzie went from a good first start to a shaky second start for Hagerstown.  Line on 4/15: 3⅓ IP 7H 5R 5ER 6BB 1K.  He’s averaging more than a walk an inning on the season and isn’t getting the strikeouts we saw last year.  He may be the starter to make way when Sammy Solis is ready to come off the DL.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Brad Peacock‘s 4/12 start line: 4⅔ IP 7H 2ER 1BB 3K.  Too many base-runners, though he managed to work around a lot of those runners to only allow the 2 runs.
• Mitchell Clegg‘s outing in the nightcap on 4/13 was so so: 4ip, 4hits, 2er, 1 bb and 3ks.  He also uncorked 2 wild pitches, had a hit batsman and balked during his brief outing (both of which factored into his first earned run allowed).  It sounds like it could have been worse for Clegg, who got a ND for his troubles on the night.
• Yuneski Maya‘s 2nd start was better than his first: 5⅔ IP 4H 2ER BB 5K and a no-decision.  Lets just hope he continues to settle down and improve.
• Tom Milone took the loss on saturday 4/16 despite getting a quality start.  Line: 6IP 6H 3R 3ER 0BB 5K.   Two of the 6 hits were solo homers (oddly, to the #’s 6 and 8 hitters), otherwise this was a decent outing.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Chris Manno‘s 4/12 line: 2IP 1H 0R 0BB 5K.  Wow!  The Manno-maniacs (is that the name of your fan club?) are ecstatic.  What a find this guy is looking like early in the 2011 season.  He threw another couple scoreless innings on 4/15 and he’s yet to give up a run in 2011.
• Erik Arneson pitched 3 1/3 innings of scoreless long relief on 4/13.  It could be interesting to see if he pitches his way out of the spot-starter role in AA and returns to the rotation.
• Cory VanAllen put in a nifty 3 inning stint to finish off a win for Erik Davis; 3ip 4ks and 2 hits (one homer).  He may not have succeeded as a starter, but he could provide LOOGY backup for the organization.
• Hassan Pena had a nifty relief appearance on 4/15: 2ip with 5ks.  The converted starter is repeating AA this year and is looking to improve on a 4.29 era in 2010.

Trends

Eventually i’ll post the trends of the starters, but with half the system with just one start b/c of rainouts, we’ll wait til next time.

Summary: Our spot starters didn’t help out at all, and they’ll probably get another opportunity in this next rotation cycle because of all the rainouts.  Lots of starters took steps back their 2nd time through.   Detwiler continues to look sharp, but there’s no room for him at the MLB level with our starters throwing so effectively.  A good problem to have.

I just finished watching the Nats beat the Brewers in extra innings tonight, as Jayson Werth easily beat out a throw on an infield-in situation on a grounder from Adam LaRoche to first.  Even if Prince Fielder‘s throw hadn’t been high Werth had easily beaten the throw.

Why was Werth, not exactly the fastest player in baseball, that far down the line on an infield-in situation?  Well, because Milwaukee’s new manager Ron Roenicke employs a pull-hitter type shift on nearly every hitter, which means that with a lefty up in LaRoche, Milwaukee’s 3rd baseman was playing halfway to second base.  So Werth could literally run halfway down the line on each pitch and had no difficulties beating a throw home on Laroche’s sharp grounder.

Oh, by the way, the only way Werth was on 3rd to put himself into this position was by virtue of stealing 3rd base without even a throw from the catcher.  Again, how was he able to do this?  Because Milwaukee’s defensive alignment meant that there was little chance one of the middle-infielders would hold him on 2nd, and the 3rd baseman had to run 20 feet to cover the bag.

I’m sure the constant shift has been beneficial (else why would they constantly be doing it?)   But tonight I cannot remember one play where the shift helped out.  Perhaps one sharp grounder to 2nd baseman Richie Weeks put him into position to make a play he wouldn’t have normally, but Weeks couldn’t handle it and it went for a hit anyway.  In the earlier innings, in a 2-on 1 out situation, a ball DEAD to the typical positioning of a 2nd baseman (and what should have been a basic inning-ending double play ball) went for a single.   The 2nd baseman wasn’t within 30 feet of a ball that every other 2nd baseman in the league doesn’t have to move to field.  Instead of getting a double-play, the bases were loaded and Narveson eventually walked in 2 runners instead of being out of the inning.

Perhaps Roenicke is a genius and this is the wave of the future; all I saw tonight was a manager over-thinking his defense.  The Nats have batters who excel going to the opposite field (Morse, Espinosa, Ramos) and, while the shifting makes sense for pull-tendency hitters (LaRoche and Werth) they should have been playing other batters straight up.

Why leave your best reliever in a game you're winning by 5 runs?

I promise this is not “hindsight is 20-20” analysis; had you been in my basement watching last night’s game with me, you would have heard me yelling all the things I’m about to say.

I have a real problem with Riggleman’s bullpen management last night.  Now, perhaps the off-day on Monday 4/11 enabled all the relievers to get enough rest to enable what we saw last night.

Here’s the sequence of events i’ll be commenting on:

• Livan Hernandez starts the 7th with a 4 run lead and having only thrown about 75 pitches at the time, but is facing the top of the Phillies order.
• We see Brian Broderick warming up.  (see comment #1)
• Suddenly Livan gets into trouble.  We see Tyler Clippard jump up and start throwing.
• Livan loads the bases, looking as if he had run out of gas.  Clippard comes in and gets out of a bases-loaded jam.
• We look back and Todd Coffey is warming up.  (see comment #2)
• To start the 8th (by which point the Nats have scored again, giving the team a FIVE run lead), Clippard comes back out!  (see comment #3)
• He can’t get out of the inning though, so Riggleman brings in his closer Sean Burnett to get out of an 8th inning jam.  The score is now 6-3 though.
• The Nats score another run in the bottom of the 8th to make it 7-3.  That’s a 4 run cushion going into the 9th inning.
• Riggleman leaves Burnett in!  (see comment #4).   Burnett gives up another run but finishes the game, getting a save for his troubles. (see comment #5).

Comments in order:

1. Ok, I was happy to see Broderick warming up.  This was the perfect game to bring him in; a 4 run lead on a colder night when the Nats seemed frisky.  Unfortunately, Livan got into trouble so quickly that Clippard had to be pushed into service.
2. Why did Coffey warm up?  He clearly wasn’t going to come into the game, since the dangerous hitter in the Phillies lineup is Ryan Howard, and Slaten is the loogy.
3. Why did Clippard return for the 8th inning??  Coffey had warmed up, as had Broderick.  You have a 4 run lead.  I suppose the reasoning was because the meat of the Phillies order was coming up.  But its a 4 run lead with 2 innings to play; the odds of a team coming back from that deficit are relatively small (remember, teams score 0 or 1 runs in an inning and no more a very large percentage of the time; 86% per this 2007 study).
4. See point #3: why bring back your closer, who you’re going to need for the next 6 days, with a 4 run lead in the 9th inning??
5. General point about the uselessness of the save situation: Burnett came into the game in the bottom of the 8th inning and allowed 2 of the 3 base-runners he inherited to score.  That’s the definition of a failure as a reliever.  Then, given a 4 run lead in the 9th he allows another run but eventually closes out the 9th and gets a save.  Yes, by virtue of the bases being loaded with a 5 run lead, the tying run was on deck therefore it was a save situation by definition.  But how exactly was his performance on the night worthy of any “positive” statistic whatsoever?  I have a post coming up about the use of relievers in general where I touch on the definition of the Save, and this game highlights everything I can’t stand about the stat.

In summary, in a game where the Nats held the lead by 4-5 runs most of the night, we pitched 2 of our 3 best relievers, both throwing more than an inning.  Burnett threw 28 pitches, enough for 2 innings.  We also warmed up Coffey and Broderick (which may not show up in the box score but they certainly were throwing).  We never bothered to use our LOOGY against one of the most susceptable lefty-lefty matchup hitters in the league (Ryan Howard).  We have two more games against the Phillies, games in which we face their two aces and certainly would expect the games to be closer.  Does this mean that Clippard and/or Burnett won’t be available later this week because they pitched on tuesday?  Wouldn’t you want to save these guys for better opportunities?

Detwiler's first start in AAA was masterful. Photo: Cathy T via nationalsdailynews.com

Because of the importance of developing starting pitching in the modern baseball game, I’ve always tried to focus on the minor league rotations, looking for the next John Lannan (meaning, a lower round draft pick never expected to become a regular MLB starter) to rise through and force his way into the discussion for 2011 and beyond.  With 4 full-season teams all starting at the same time (and 2 more short-season teams starting up mid-June), i’ll try to do a quick review of the progress, start by start, of our minor league affiliates.  I will focus mostly on Starters but mention relievers of note.

For this analysis I depend heavily on the excellent reviews at NationalsProspects.com, as well as a series of level-by-level links that you can find at my personal “cheat sheet” of websites (scroll to the bottom for the affiliate-specific links for rosters, stats, schedules, and local paper links).  If it were not for “Sue Dinem” and April Whitzman at that site carrying on the flame for Brian Oliver and natsfarmauthority.com, it would be far more difficult to follow the minor leagues for all of us.  Thank you, again, for all that you do.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Thursday 4/7 game reviews (opening day for most minor league affiliates)
• Friday 4/8 game reviews
• Saturday 4/9 game reviews
• Sunday 4/10 game reviews
• Monday 4/11 game reviews

Good

• Brad Meyers picks up right where he left off last season: 5IP 4H 0R 0BB 9K in his opening day start.  The staff had 15 k’s on the day against a very strong Bowie team (11 of the Orioles’ top 30 prospects are at Bowie).
• Cameron Selik‘s professional starting debut went very well in Hagerstown: 5IP 4H 0R 0BB 4K.  Not as overpowering as Meyers but 5 shutout innings with no walks is a good sign.
• Ross Detwiler‘s AAA debut was quite dominant; 6IP 4H 1ER 1BB 8K.  Remember, he’s not in AAA because he didn’t pitch his way off the major league roster.  I still believe he’s the first to be called up when needed.
• Lefty Matt Grace pitched well in his debut in Hagerstown: 6IP 4H 0R 0BB 4K.  I like the sleeper capabilities of Grace, an 8th round pick in 2010 out of UCLA.
• Garrett Mock‘s Nationals career continues on; he went 5 2/3s, 3 hits, 3bbs 1 run (on a homer) and 6 Ks in a ND against the Philadelphia AAA team from Lehigh Valley.
• Chris McKenzie‘s initial start was very good: 5IP 1H 1R 1ER 3BB 3K.  He’s young too; he doesn’t turn 22 til after the season.  A far cry from his numbers up in Vermont last season.
• Tom Milone’s 4/10 start was clean and efficient: 7.0IP 5H 0ER 0BB 4K.  You can’t quibble with 7 shutout innings and no walks in AAA.  All he’s done the last two seasons is produce, level by level.
• Craig Stammen‘s return to the rotation (after seemingly being considered for the MLB club as a middle reliever during spring training) went well: 5IP 3H 1ER 1BB 3K.  He’s in a tough spot; his FIP/xFIP numbers last year indicated he was pitching around MLB average for all starters (his numbers were 3.95/3.97, MLB median for qualified starters in 2010 was 3.85/4.09).  But his “regular” numbers were bad; era of 5.06 and whip of 1.46.  In some ways he’s kinda like JD Martin; he doesn’t really dazzle you with his stuff, but he gets it done.
• Marcos Frias took a loss in his opening start for Potomac but pitched well; 6IP 4H 1R 1ER 1BB 2K.  Lets hope his 2nd year in high-A goes better than his first (a 5.69 era in 2010).

Bad

• Yunesky Maya‘s opening day start was horrible.  4.2IP 8H 5ER 2BB 2K 1HR.  I’m a big Maya fan and want to see him succeed, but lines like this will make his signing seem like a mistake.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Ryan Tatusko‘s first start was cut short after just 4 innings (not sure why; he was only at 73 pitches).  4 hits, 4 walks, 5 Ks and 2 earned runs for a mediocre start.  Harrisburg’s offense couldn’t score any runs on the day so he wasn’t getting the Win regardless.
• Denny Rosenbaum‘s loss on 4/9 wasn’t that bad really; 5IP 2H 3R 2ER 3BB 4K.  Sue Dinem reported that two walks and an error led to a bases-clearing double.  Rosenbaum struck out 4 of the first 7 batters he faced, then retired the last 8 hitters after the double.  So I like the capability of dominance.
• Luis Atilano‘s line in his AA start (5.0IP 4H 2ER 2BB 2K) may seem ok, but I’d expect more from a guy who was pitching in the majors last year.  He is coming back from elbow surgery, so perhaps this is just rust.  Either way, i’m slightly surprised at this point to see him in any of our minor league rotations, given his removal from the 40-man and thus his lowered prospect status.
• Trevor Holder had a so-so start in high-A; 6IP 6H 3R 3ER 2BB 3K.  Potomac blogger Sue Dinem notes that (paraphrasing) Holder doesn’t have blow-it-by-you stuff and has to keep his pitches down to succeed (something he didn’t do much of yesterday).  I agree with commenters on the above link; Holder was an overdraft to begin with and was just OK last year in Potomac.  He may be bound for the bullpen.
• Bobby Hansen‘s first Hagerstown start was decent: 5IP 7H 2R 2ER BB 5K.  Too many baserunners but I like the K/inning rate.  He’s a youngster (doesn’t turn 22 til after the season) and a lefty, so I won’t be too critical.

Other notes/thoughts

• The Hagerstown Rotation has been fun to predict and now see unfold for those of us who track these things.  My offseason prediction was Solis, Clegg, Demny, Jenkins, and Grace.  Then when the roster was announced (and as it turned out Clegg/Demny were in high-A and Solis on the DL) I predicted Grace, Hansen, Jenkins, Jordan and McKenzie.  One turn through the rotation now seems to be Selik, Grace, McKenzie, Hansen and Jordan, with Applebee as a spot-starter.  Solis probably is still in the picture; he had a muscle injury and is extended spring training right now.
• JD Martin, whose retainment I have questioned in this forum based on his lack of upside, his age and his here-to-fore demonstrated performance in the majors, seems (at least so far) to be the long-man out of Syracuse’s bullpen and NOT in the rotation.  He pitched 4 innings of relief on 4/8, and while he pitched well (4IP 1H 0R 1BB 3K) I still don’t see him in the majors for us again (he successfully was outrighted to AAA and his 40-man slot may never appear again).
• As a possible consequence of the Martin decision, Craig Stammen is (at least for now) featuring as a AAA starter.  I find this somewhat encouraging for him right now; I think he can still produce as a starter.  But he may get moved to long-man as our AA prospects force promotions.
• Matt Chico seems to be now relegated to a LOOGY role in AAA, which may not be a bad thing for the team.  Slaten has struggled in the role and Chico could make his way back to the majors in a lefty specialist role.  I like this option, since Chico clearly can be stretched out and give the team spot starter/long relief as needed (especially since the team basically can’t use Broderick for anything but mop up duty right now).
• Commenter favorite Christopher Manno indeed seems to be the closer in Hagerstown, getting the save in friday’s game.
• Newly acquired Alex Caldera is off to a rocky start; he got absolutely shelled on 4/11.
• Late spring training acquisition Lee Hyde has been up and down so far for Syracuse.

Summary

All in all, a bunch of really encouraging starts up and down the system during the season’s first week.   Great news.  Only one really “bad” start in the whole system.  A bunch of rain outs over the last couple days prevented us from seeing several starters during the first “turn” through the rotation, but double headers for Potomac and Hagerstown will get everyone started.

Marquis puts in his 2nd good outing in a row

We’re two turns through the rotation now and the team sits at 4-5.  Here’s some rundowns on how the pitching is trending.

Good

• Half the Bullpen.  2010 holdovers Clippard, Storen, and Burnett are pitching lights out to open the season.  Now if only the Nats still had the other half of the 2010 bullpen still here… (see the “bad” section).
• Jordan Zimmermann‘s 2nd start on 4/8 (blog/gamer/box) went decently.  5 1/3, 6 hits, 2 runs 0 walks and 4 ks.  He left the game with the lead and Goessling notes that he looked sharp early (the 4Ks were in the first two innings).  He got yanked in the 6th on 99 pitches all in all, in favor of Slaten to do a lefty-lefty matchup.  Some commenters note the early hook as over-managing perhaps; I don’t have that big a problem with early hooks early in the season, especially for someone on a known innings limit for the season.  Remember, we have a bullpen full of guys who need work and havn’t thrown in a few days (Gaudin, Slaten and Broderick in particular).  Zimmermann’s control was good (68 of 99 for strikes) and his fastball was strong (avg of 92, max 94.8).
• Jason Marquis.  I’m writing this at the end of the 6th of his 4/10 start (gamer/box) assuming that Marquis is coming out of the game.  His line: 6ip, 7hits, 2 BBs, 9ks and 3 earned runs.  Without context, this line looks mediocre.  However, by watching the game you get a different feel.  3 of those 7 hits were infield hits, another a broken bat RBI single.  Only two halfway-decently hit balls all day (one was a really nice piece of hitting by David Wright to knock in the first run).  Marquis seemed to work around difficulties with his fastball all day, and got 9Ks by virtue of some great off speed stuff.  Of the three runs scored, one was only in scoring position thanks to a passed ball on a 3rd strike.  The umpires blatantly missed three pretty obvious calls in the field, extending Marquis’ outing.  He was in position for the loss (since Chris Wright is pitching a one-hitter through 7 innings despite a fastball that is only in the 85-86mph range) until the Nats got to Carrasco in the 8th to tie the game.  I’d rate his outing as a success and something to build on.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez‘s 4/6/11 start (gamer/box) was not nearly as good as his opening day start.  He labored in Florida, taking nearly 100 pitches to get through 5 innings.  6 hits, 5 walks and 4 runs.  He really struggled in the first inning, only throwing 8 of 24 pitches for strikes.  He blew the 4-run lead his team had staked him and the bullpen did the rest.  I wonder if this is the year that Livan finally gets yanked out of the rotation (he basically hasn’t missed a start in his career, despite a fastball that’s only averaging 83-84mph).
• The other Half of the bullpen: Gaudin and Coffey continue to be very poor replacements for last year’s highly effective duo of Bautista and Peralta.  An offensively-challenged team like the Nats needs to keep every lead it gets; this is one of the main reasons we lost 100+ games two years running.  Last year we had a good bullpen thing going, but management failed to keep two of the key members and rolled the dice with two new guys plus a rule5 acquisition.  I see this experiment going badly, soon.
• Brian Broderick: the whole Broderick situation is looking worse and worse.  After giving up a few more runs on 4/9, he’s got an era in the 20s.  Riggelman had said before he plans on only using him in no-pressure situations (read: complete blowouts), which reduces the bullpen by one.  Except that on 4/9, when most of his bullpen needed a night off, he was forced to use Broderick in a close situation.  So he comes in and lets the game get out of hand.  This was one of the main reasons I advocated AGAINST a team like the Nats keeping a rule5 guy (as discussed in this March 16th post).  I would like to see the Nats negotiate a trade with the Cardinals so we can stash him in AAA and bring up Balester.

Not good or bad necessarily.

• John Lannan‘s 4/6 start (running thread/gamer/box) didn’t look that great (5ip, 7hits, 3ER) as he demonstrated the danger of leadoff hits or walks.  Three straight baserunners to start the game lead to two runs and it could have been worse had he not embarassed Logan Morrison on three straight curveballs to get out of an easy sac fly situation for a 3rd run.  Lannan’s showing more velocity than I remember, 90-91mph but acting like a sinkerballer (cool stat heard on TV; Lannan ranks 4th in the majors over the past few years in ground-ball percentage).  I put Lannan closer to the “good” category because his BABIP is .333 and his xFIP ranks him best among the starters so far.
• Tom Gorzelanny‘s season debut 4/9 (gamer/box) had some good (he retired 8 straight after giving up 2 first inning runs and he had 8 Ks in 5 1/3 innings), and some bad (two homers plus a long fly-ball that almost was a third homer to Carlos Beltran, needing 26 pitches to get out of the first inning and throwing 98 to complete just 5 1/3 innings).  Hi start may have gone completely differently had he gotten a borderline strike-3 call the pitch prior to Beltran’s first inning homer.  I like WHIP as a better rough indicator than ERA for starters; and Gorzelanny may have given up 6 runs (5 earned) in less than 6 innings, but he only put 6 baserunners on in those 5 1/3 innings.  Most of the time, a whip around 1 per inning gets absorbed by double plays and stranded base runners; today they all scored.

Quick Thoughts on the offense

• The words “Partially torn labrum” are not a good thing for Adam LaRoche, and I’m afraid we’re about to lose him for a very long time.  Like perhaps the season.  To make matters worse he hurt his leg sliding on Sunday and was taken out of the game (putting Pudge at 1B for the first time in years).  Ironically, Michael Morse playing first base was a very early-into-the-offseason suggestion; keep Josh Willingham in left and play Morse at first.  Of course, now we’re potentially looking at the worst possible situation; we blow FA dollars on a 2nd tier first-baseman, trade away Willingham for assets that are either hurt or in the minors, and then watch our first baseman go down with injury the first week of the season.  Not good news.
• Wilson Ramos‘s excellent start is quickly answering two questions for the Nats; who is the catcher of the (immediate) future?  And, how will Ivan Rodriguez be used this year?  Well the answer to the second question is quickly becoming “once a week backup,” as Pudge is looking incredibly over-matched at the plate.  It may be a sad ending for Pudge; despite still being excellent defensively, if he can’t hit .200 he may be forced into retirement after this season.
• I like what Danny Espinosa is doing thus far; if he can force himself into the upper-end of this lineup, the team will be better for it.  Especially as a switch hitter; he could allow us to return Werth to a more natural batting position (like 5th).

Overall Summary

Despite not getting nearly as good a set of starts as the first turn through, the team takes 2 of 3 in NY and salvages a .500 road trip.  Can’t ask for much more than that.  I’m going the Wednesday game and can’t wait to see Roy Halladay vs Lannan.  Should be good.

A sad end to a great hitter's career. Photo: pul.se website, unknown origin

It really is a shame to see Manny Ramirez go out in the fashion that he has, scurrying away into retirement instead of facing a second PED suspension.  Actually, it was more of a shame to see his first suspension last year, which immediately cast him into a shameful collection of baseball players (McGwire, Bonds, Clemens, Giambi, Sosa, and Palmeiro) who represented the best the game had to offer from the mid 90s to the mid 2000s, but who also defined an era of steroids, PEDs and rampant drug use throughout baseball and probably will never gain entry to the sports Hall of Fame (at least not while they’re alive in all likelihood).

What is amazing about both drug tests is the basic idiocy displayed in actually getting caught.  The baseball drug testing policy is already considered to be among the easiest and most basic to skirt, continually being criticized by the WADA for its lack of transparency and lack of accountability.  The CBA lays out exactly what drugs are being tested for, and the players pretty much know when and where they’re going to be tested.  The policy isn’t nearly as draconian as what (say) professional cyclists go through, yet players continue to use and get caught.  The fact that Ramirez got caught twice is really amazing.

Manny Ramirez retires with these amazing statistics:

• A career slash line of .312/.411/.585
• A career OPS of nearly 1.000 (final figure: .996 for his career)
• A career OPS+ of 154, roughly meaning he batted 50% better than the average major leaguer for his career.
• 555 career homers, averaging a homer every 14.8 plate appearances.
• 12 All star appearances, 9 silver sluggers and 11 seasons receiving MVP votes (most being consecutively from the years 1998-2006, not coincidentally the height of the steroid era).

Leaving steroid and PED use out of the equation, one can easily say Ramirez is one of the 4-5 best right handed hitters of the last half century.  He can be mentioned in the same breath as the likes of Willie Mays, Albert Pujols, Hank Aaron, and Frank Robinson in terms of being a complete hitter.

Yet, in the end his 2nd drug suspension will define his legacy.  He’ll never be in the Hall of Fame, not while we have a voter base that refused to elect Jeff Bagwell in his first year of eligibility, seemingly on the question of whether or not he “could have been using” despite not one shred of proof otherwise.

I’m of two conflicting thoughts on the eligibility considerations for players who used PEDs.  On the one hand, the most hallowed records in the game (single season home run and career home run records) were shattered by hitters who artificially enabled themselves to surpass the previous records and forever change the game.  Many of the hall voter base are long time baseball writers who grew up idolizing those players whose records were “stolen” by these modern day cheaters, and they will forever penalize the likes of McGwire, Sosa and Bonds for destroying the memory of Ruth, Aaron or Maris.  The 2013 hall of fame ballot especially highlights this issue and may be our best test case for how these players are treated.

On the other hand, the culture of the game at the time encouraged and fostered drug use during the mid 90s, and various opinions from players at the time put the overall usage across the entire league in the 75% range.  We didn’t discount the pitching performances of players in the dead ball era, nor do we ignore the performance of pitchers in the late 60s who dominated their counterparts during a small era of dominance.   We used to have dozens of batters hitting .400 prior to the turn of the century, yet now the best hitters in the league hit in the mid .300s at best.  Players in the early parts of the century played in a non-integrated sport, and players in the 60’s and 70’s notoriously used stimulants on a regular basis to make it through the grind of the season.  At some point voters need to realize that omitting an entire generation of players based on innuendo or suspicion is doing the game a huge injustice and destroying an entire generation of legacy that merits inclusion in the hall of fame.

There is no good solution.  At some point though we need to at least acknowledge this generation’s greatest players.  Unfortunately, it probably will take a veteran’s committee 30 years from now to do it.

This is the only time i’ve ever seen Burnett’s hat on straight. Photo: masnsports.com

6/30/2009: The Nationals and Pirates announce a trade:

• Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett coming to Washington
• Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan going to Pittsburgh.

To Nationals faithful, the 6/30/2009 trade with the Pirates was a serious talking point.  It was the first major trade of the Mike Rizzo era after a contentious spring training that deposed Jim Bowden.  At the time of the trade, Milledge was sitting in AAA Syracuse after having hit .161 in April, and Hanrahan was busy compiling a 7.71 era while blowing as many saves (5) as he had successes as our closer.

We all know what happened next: Morgan came over, slotted into center field and had a career season.  And Burnett settled into the bullpen and gave us better-than-loogy performances that continue to today.  Milledge hit significantly better for Pittsburgh than had been hitting for us, and suddenly Hanrahan found the plate again and has morphed into a half-way decent late-inning option for the worst team in baseball.

At the time though, pundits far and wide talked about how the Pirates “fleeced” the Nats in the deal.  Here’s one take from a USA Today columnist, and here’s MLB Trade Rumor’s round up of the typical analysts and their comments like “easy win for the Pirates.”

I remember thinking at the time that baseball pundits seemed to constantly be in love with Lastings Milledge.  Nobody could see who he was as a player (immature, egotistical, uncoachable) or see his lack of accomplishments (he has a career 91 OPS+).  All they could see was his age and his “potential.”  (Hmm, reminds me of how Jim Bowden looked at *every* prospect)  Meanwhile, Hanrahan was somehow valued higher than Burnett despite the fact that he had a 1.9 whip for 2009 (as a closer!  That’s nearly two baserunners per inning for a guy you’re entrusting to finish wins) and he was a righty.  Burnett was an effective lefty and remains that way today.

Anyway.  When Milledge was non-tendered in December and then subsequently got into a massive brawl in the Venezuelan Winter League, I didn’t see any mea culpas from these pundits.  The Pirates, probably the worst-run team in baseball and with one of the smallest payrolls, didn’t want to gamble with a probably salary in the $1M range on Milledge turning it around for 2010.  He only lasted four at bats for the White Sox, who DFA’d him today.  He’s officially worn out his welcome for four teams now (New York, Washington and Pittsburgh and Chicago) inside of 5 seasons.

Of course, Milledge’s counterpart in the trade Nyjer Morgan was similarly jettissoned at the end of spring training when he lost out his starting center fielder job to Rick Ankiel.  Morgan was traded to Milwaukee for a low-A player (Cutter Dykstra) that Keith Law described as no better than an “organizational player.”  So now the trade looks more like Hanrahan for Burnett and Dykstra.  Who is winning now?  Burnett has been great for us, and while he’s not a 95-mph flame throwing back of the bullpen type he has been nothing but consistent, continuing to give better-than-loogy performances and now he seems slated as the closer-for-now.

There was so much vitriol in the blogosphere aimed towards the Nationals front office for this move that I feel like bringing it up.  I havn’t seen too many mea culpas out there from the same people who flamed the Nats at the time.

Lannan has the only W for the rotation thus far. Photo: blog.prorumors.com

A major league team’s rotation cycles somewhere between 33-34 times a year.  As I did with the Spring training games, I will try to do a good/bad/indifferent each time through for the pitching staff.  I’ll focus more on the starters but will mention the relievers as is merited.

Good

• Livan Hernandez‘s opening day start (running blog/gamer/box score) may have gone down as a loss, but it was a pretty nifty gem.  He gave up two runs on four hits with no walks in 6 1/3 on only 77 pitches.  He retired 15 in a row after a 2nd inning homer given up to Jason Heyward.  He may have gotten the loss but it was a quality start for sure and he probably pitches a complete game if the Nats could score.
• John Lannan goes 5 complete for the win in the 2nd game of the season (blog/gamer/box score).  Its amazing what a little run support will do for a guy.  I do agree though with Steven from FJB, who criticizes the decision to bring Lannan back after an hour’s rain delay just so he can pitch the 5th and get the W.  Why would he have possibly had Lannan return after an hour’s delay?  That’s why you have long men in the bullpen.  That should have been Broderick or Gaudin in to re-start the game.
• Jordan Zimmermann‘s first start of the season (running blog/gamer/box score) was promising: 2er in 6ip and finishing those 6 innings in just 84 pitches.  Not very many Ks though (only two through six) for a strike out pitcher.  Perhaps he was pitching to contact.
• Sean Burnett: apparently our new “closer” for now.  He’s pitched pretty effectively in limited opportunities.
• Jason Marquis: his 4/5 start (gamer and box)was the first game that I have gotten to see.  And I thought he looked pretty good.  He went 6 1/3, gave up 6 hits and 0 walks and was efficient all night (he was only at 78 pitches when he got removed).  He only had 2 ks but was throwing lots of strikes.   His fastball showed around 90 with great movement and he got lots of groundballs (11 grounders and 5 fly balls).  The middle of the Marlins order had his number but he controlled the rest of the squad.

Bad

• Doug Slaten: three games and three failures in the Loogy role to start the season.  Gotta do better.  Your job is to get the lefties out.  He may not have given up an earned run yet but his whip is a nifty 12.00 through three games.
• The Bullpen on 4/3/11.  Broderick, Gaudin, and Coffey‘s 4/3/11 performances.  Not.  Good.  Notice that these three guys are all brand new to a very good bullpen last year.  I’m not panicking, but i am saying.  Balester may have his ears burning if (especially) Gaudin can’t get it done.

Possibly Concerning

• Storen seems to be getting his confidence back.  But he cannot be giving up two hits and a walk in the 9th inning of a tied game (as he did on 4/5).  He’s not getting any Ks either, and we need his k/9 ratio to be up in the 8.5-9.0 range.

Pitching Summary:

We’ve had four starts and gotten 3 “real” quality starts (plus Lannan on his way to a 4th when a rain delay caused his night to be shortened).  You cannot ask for much more out of your starting rotation.  Last year our first four starts went like this:

• Lannan; 3 2/3ip, 7 hits, 3bbs and 5 runs.
• Marquis: 4ip, 8 hits, 3 bbs and 6 runs.
• Stammen: 5ip, 9 hits, 4 runs.
• Mock: 3 1/3ip, 4hits but FIVE walks and 2 runs.

For the record, that was 17 runs in 16 innings over 4 days.  Our first four starts in 2011 elicited 23 2/3ip and just 7 earned runs.  Quite the turn around.  Too bad the team couldn’t score any runs and went 1-3.

Thoughts on the offense

We’re getting great production out of our stars (Zimmerman has a 1.406 ops through 4 games and Werth is at .945).  Ramos is mashing the ball and Espinosa is 4/10 so far.  The rest of the team?  Bad.  Until last night the lead off  hitters were 0-for-the-season and Riggleman is already swapping players around to put Espinosa at leadoff (a pretty good decision if he can handle it).  Ankiel is 1/12 (but that “one” is a mashed homer, which St. Louis fans are probably cackling about, since they continually warn Nats fans that this is exactly what Ankiel does).  They’ve only scored 10 runs in 4 games (6 of them in their sole win) and definitely need to show better run support.

Summary

Great starting pitching to go with little run support.  I hope this isn’t the story of the season.

Thanks to Masn’s Byron Kerr for the release of the Hagerstown roster on 4/4/11.  While most people will be focused on one Bryce Harper‘s inclusion on this roster, I’m interested (per the title of the blog) in the pitchers.   Here’s the list, cut-n-pasted from Kerr’s article.:

LHP Paul Applebee
RHP Sam Brown
RHP Wilson Eusebio
LHP Matt Grace
RHP Ben Graham
LHP Bobby Hansen
LHP Chad Jenkins
RHP Taylor Jordan
LHP Christopher Manno
RHP Shane McCatty
RHP Christopher McKenzie
RHP Cameron Selik
RHP Matt Swynenberg

Based on these player’s organizational roles and their status from last year, here’s how i’m guessing they play out:

Starters: Applebee, Grace, Hansen, Jenkins, Jordan
bullpen: Eusebio, McCatty, McKenzie, Selik, Brown, Manno, Swynenberg, Graham

Thoughts

• My initial prediction for the low-A rotation was: Solis, Clegg, Demny, Ott/Jenkins, Grace.  Demny and Clegg are in the high-A squad.  I thought Applebee would be in Potomac; now he seems set to repeat low-A and may be first in line to be promoted.  I thought perhaps Hansen and Jordan would be almost “inbetween” levels, having not really done that well in short-A but having a full low-A rotation.
• Swyndenberg could be in the rotation or he could be a spot starter.  He mostly was a starter last year.
• Sam Brown?  Where’d he come from?  He seems to be this guy, formerly of the Texas organization.  Did he get thrown into a trade somewhere?  He seems too young to have been a minor league free agent.
• Sammy Solis is hurt and will be on (presumably) low-A’s DL to start the year.
• Where is Billy Ott?  Ott is listed on the Auburn short-A squad, which makes no sense since it won’t start play til mid June.  He may be in extended spring.
• Hansen, Jenkins and Jordan making the jump from last year’s short-A squad.  Manno jumping straight from the GCL (the only one going to a full-season squad apparently).
• I really don’t know who will be the closer; of the list of guys there only Selik even had a save last year.

Missing from 2010:

• Ott and Hicks: they ended the year in Hagerstown’s rotation and now they’re not on any full season roster.
• Bronson: I thought he’d be in the high-A rotation; now he’s not even on any full season roster?
• Other names not on any full-season squad: Arnold, Vasquez, Weaver, Erb, Garcia, Gibson.  Weaver is a bit surprising; he seemed to be throwing decently well last year.  Perhaps he’s hurt.
• Willems: the former supp-1st rounder who retired mid 2010.
• McGeary: on the mend from tommy john surgery.

I was out of town, and away from computer for the long weekend.  A bad time to be away for my particular blog, which endeavors to talk about the pitching staffs of both the big club and the farm systems.  After announcing AAA and AA rosters earlier, the high-A and low-A rosters were announced on 4/4/11.

Here’s the slate of high-A pitchers, per Byron Kerr’s masn article.

RHP Alex Caldera
LHP Mitchell Clegg
LHP Ryan Demmin
RHP Paul Demny
RHP Marcos Frias
RHP Trevor Holder
RHP Pat Lehman
RHP Carlos Martinez
RHP Kyle Morrison
RHP Adam Olbrychowski
LHP Danny Rosenbaum
LHP Josh Smoker
RHP Rob Wort

Based on these pitcher’s roles in the past, here’s my guess as to roles for this team:

starters: Caldera, Holder, Demny, Rosenbaum, Clegg
bullpen: Frias, Smoker, Wort (closer?), Morrison, Lehman, Demmin (loogy?), CMartinez, Olbrychowski

Thoughts:

• I initially predicted Frias, Rosenbaum, Bronson, Fabian, Applebee, Lehman for this rotation.   Frias probably gets demoted to being a spot starter based on last year’s high ERA in the starter role.  Same with Lehman to a certain extent.  Clegg and Demny must have had great springs; i thought they’d be back in low-A.  Holder I thought would be moved up to AA; he may be first in line to be promoted.   We’ll see where Bronson, Fabian and Applebee end up once they announce the low-A roster.
• Where is Robinson Fabian?  I thought he’d be in the high-A rotation after getting a handful of starts last  year, but he doesn’t appear on any roster right now.
• Carlos Martinez?  He’s 27 and basically has pitched at the single-A level in our system for years.  Is this still a prospect?  Or is his placement on the roster more of a filler/rubber arm mop up guy?
• New faces to the organization: Adam Olbrychowski is our trade bounty for Justin Maxwell.  He is a converted starter who had some AA time last year but starts in high-A.  Alex Caldera was purchased from Kansas City earlier this spring training.  He was a Carolina league all star last year but struggled in AA, so he’s essentially repeating this level.
• I’m guessing Josh Smoker‘s days as a starter are over.

Missing from last year:

• Atwood, Pecina, JEstrada all either retired or were released mid 2010.
• Jaime was released and claimed, Morris was traded.
• Fabian, Dill, Phillibaum, Alaniz, Testa and Beno: no idea where these guys are.