Nationals Arm Race

Brad Peacock won his 2nd Pitcher of the Week award after his performance on 5/13. Photo: Jenny Kane/The Patriot News

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below.  I’m going to put in starter names per day review to help keep track.

• Thursday 5/12 game reviews (Maya, Tatusko, Potomac off, Grace )
• Friday 5/13 game reviews (Detwiler, Peacock, Selik, Cole)
• Saturday 5/14 game reviews (Meyers, Harrisburg rained out, Rosenbaum, Ray )
• Sunday 5/15 game reviews (Syracuse rain out, Roark, Clegg, Hansen)
• Monday 5/16 game reviews (Syracuse rained out DH, Harrisburg off, Holder, Jordan)

Good

• All we can say about Brad Peacock‘s 5/13 outing is, “wow.”  7IP 5H 1R 1ER 1BB 14K.  14 Strikeouts in 7 innings and he was at 106 pitches when pulled.  His performance earned a writeup at milb.com, earned him a second pitcher of the week award in a month, and gives him a gaudy 56ks (versus only 7 walks) in 42 innings on the year.  He’s proving again and again to be a massive steal of a 41st round draft pick and will be pushing for a promotion soon.
• Brad Meyers picked up right where he left off from his AA days on 5/14, going for 7IP 4H 0R 0BB 8K.  After a mediocre first start, this was one of the cleaner outings the AAA staff has seen this year.  Meyers wasn’t the story of the day though: his first baseman Michael Aubrey hit FOUR homers in the game.
• Is it too early to call for Robbie Ray‘s promotion?  In his 2nd pro start on 5/14 he was as dominant as in the first: 6IP 2H 0R 1BB 7K.  I don’t call too many starts “great” but Ray’s got two of them in a row.  So far, he’s looking like a fantastic piece of drafting and signing by Mike Rizzo (he was a 12th rounder HS kid who was signed away from his college commitment to U of Arkansas for $799k last summer).  Update: Ray was also named pitcher of the week for his start.
• Mitchell Clegg had a redeeming start in Potomac on 5/15: 5⅓ IP 5H 1R 1ER 1BB 2K.  Not dominant, but pretty clean.  Its arguably his best start of the season.  Good for him, because it comes at a time when Potomac is looking for someone to replace in the rotation for Solis.
• Bobby Hansen had a nice outing on 5/15 in Hagerstown: 7IP 4H 2R 1ER 1BB 5K.  He’s now 5-1 on the season with decent anciliary numbers considering he’s yet to turn 22.
• Despite taking the loss, i’ll give Trevor Holder a “good” for his 5/16 outing in Potomac: 8IP 6H 3R 3ER 0BB 5K.   Through 7 innings, he had completely shut down Fredrick to the tune of 2hits and a hit batsman on 73 pitches.  He shouldn’t have tired in the 8th, and perhaps a reliever could have stemmed the flow of the inning, but not being there its hard to make that judgement.

Bad

• Not a good outing for Ross Detwiler on 5/13: 6⅔ 11H 4R 4ER 1BB 3K 2HR.  His season era now stands at 4.76 and he’s not getting nearly the K/9 rates that one would expect out of a guy who was threatening for a MLB rotation spot.  He’s the worst of the 5 starters in AAA right now at a time that Brian Peacock is pushing for a promotion.
• Cameron Selik isn’t experiencing the success at high-A that he did in low-A thus far, getting hammered on 5/13 for Potomac.  Line: 4⅓ IP 10H 9R 8ER 1BB 4K.  Well, at least he had 4 Ks.
• Tanner Roark‘s return to AA on 5/15 wasn’t pretty: 3⅓ IP 10H 5R 5ER 2BB 3K.  Lets hope he’s just rusty from whatever ailment kept him in extended spring training.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Yunesky Maya put in a so-so start 5/12: 7⅓ IP 7H 4R 3ER 1BB 3K 1HR.  A solo-homer, then a leaked run after a lead-off double in the 6th and another leadoff double led to his runs allowed.  Maya’s lesson: don’t give up leadoff doubles, since the likelihood of them scoring is something like 85%.
• Weird night for Ryan Tatusko on 5/12: he only gave up one earned run but couldn’t “get out” of the 5th inning.  Line: 4⅔ IP 6H 2R 1ER 2BB 3K.  6 hits, a couple wild pitches and 2 walks conspired for his early hook.
• Contrary to my previous post, Matt Grace has NOT yet lost his rotation spot and went for Hagerstown on 5/12.  Result: mediocre at best.  4⅓ IP 7H 4R 3ER 2BB 3K.
• AJ Cole‘s second professional start on 5/13 ended before we could really pass much judgement.  4IP 2H 1R 1ER 2BB 4K.   The one run he conceded was a lead-off walk (lead off walks kill), but otherwise he was solid.  He was lifted before the 5th, oddly.  Was he at a pitch count limit?
• Denny Rosenbaum had a soso night on 5/14: 7IP 10H 4R 3ER 3BB 5K.  Per Sue Dinem’s take, he worked his way out of jams well, and consistently got the leadoff hitter to mitigate the effects of 13 baserunners in 7 innings.
• Taylor Jordan kept his team in the game on 5/16, going 6IP 7H 3R 3ER 2BB 5K.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• The big news of this cycle was going to be the assignment of Sammy Solis to Potomac on 5/11.  But then they immediately stuck him on the 7-day DL.  I’m sure there’s a reason for this procedurally but it doesn’t make much sense (perhaps they want him to start traveling with the team?  Working with Potomac’s excellent pitching coach Paul Menhart?)
• Perhaps 2nd biggest news item; the promotion of Cole Kimball, one day after I called for the move in this space.  No word yet on the corresponding move but perhaps we’ll see a wholesale shifting upwards of our closers (Mattheus, Lehman, and Manno), all of whom are excelling at their various levels so far this season.
• A slew of moves on 5/15 resulted in Erik Davis going to the DL (he limped out of his previous start), Tanner Roark replacing Davis in the AA rotation, and (curiously) Ryan Tatusko getting promoted to AAA to replace Kimball.  Roark more or less dominated AA last year; i’m hoping that this move is a temporary one before he moves up to the AAA rotation where he belongs (though his 5/15 outing didn’t help his cause).  Meanwhile, i’m guessing Davis’ DL stint is just for a few days (can you make 7-day DL moves retroactive to the day they got hurt?) since AA still needs a 5th starter.  Finally Tatusko’s promotion certainly wasn’t earned; he has an ugly 5.73 ERA and an even uglier 1.94 whip and i’m guessing is more a function of his age (he is too old for AA).  It also may be indicative of his end as a starting pitcher in the system and he’ll be tested as a reliever in AAA.
• Is Hagerstown going to a 6-man rotation for the time being?  I would have thought Grace would be the natural guy to make way for the Jordan return plus the Cole/Ray promotions, but he threw on 5/11.  McKenzie‘s spot was skipped in the rotation this cycle, so perhaps that is the answer.
• It may be a few days before we figure out who makes way for Solis in the Potomac rotation.  My previous guess was either Holder or Clegg.  I’d lean towards Clegg since Holder got so much draft bonus money.  Perhaps a topic for the next version of this post.
• Collin Balester‘s 5/13 outing didn’t speak well of his season: 4 batters faced, 4 unretired to put Syracuse’s game completely out of reach.  For someone whose promotion I was advocating, this outing didn’t help his chances.
• Hagerstown reliever Matt Syndenberg had a nice relief outing on 5/16, going 3 shutout innings to help extend the game into extra innings.   His numbers on the season aren’t great though, and this reformed starter probably needs to step it up.

Trends

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good,soso
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso,bad
Meyers    soso,good
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good

AA Trends:
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso
Roark        bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad,great
Arneson    soso

Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good,soso
Clegg        soso,soso,soso,unbelievably bad,soso,good
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso,good
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso,soso
Selik        soso,bad

Low-A Trends:
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso,soso
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso,soso
Cole        soso,soso
Ray        great,great
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good,soso,soso,good

Top 3 starters deserving promotion: Peacock, Milone, Jordan
Top 3 starters whose jobs are in jeopardy: Martis, Grace, Detwiler

Washington won the first two games of the Florida series, but still faced a very difficult trip to Atlanta, where they are set to face the cream of the Braves’ rotation.  How did they do?

Good

• Jason Marquis got the Atlanta Series off to a nice start, pitching into the 8th on 5/10 for a victory over Tim Hudson (box/gamer).  He retired the first 9 he faced, made a mistake to Martin Prado that turned into a 4th inning homer, worked out of a jam in the 5th then cruised through 7 complete.  Two hits in the 8th turned into 2 more runs, spoiling his otherwise good line: 7 1/3, 7 hits, 2 walks, 3 runs, 3ks.
• John Lannan is an enigma; he followed up last week’s abomination with a good quality start against a playoff team in Atlanta on 5/11 (box/gamer).  Line: 6ip,5hits, 2 runs, 3bbs and 3ks.
• Jordan Zimmermann had a very dominant 103 pitch outing on 5/12 (box/gamer): 6 1/3, 5 hits, 3 runs, 2bbs and 11Ks.  Two of those 3 runs were inherited and allowed to score by Burnett.  The other was a solo HR from Chipper Jones that he absolutely crushed after Zimmermann *barely* missed with two well thrown sliders to run the count 2-0.  He missed his spot by a foot and Jones crushed it.  Our the poorly constructed bullpen conspired to blow the 4 run lead they had been given in the 7th and eventually leaked in the winning run to blow one of the better outings we’ve had out of a starter all year.

Bad

• Livan Hernandez may have reached 5 complete innings in Florida on Sunday 5/8, but he got hammered on the way there (box/gamer).  Final line: 5ip, 8hits, 2 walks, only 2Ks and 6 earned runs.  The Umpire wasn’t giving Livan the corners, and the Florida hitters just waited out his batting practice-speed fastballs to come over the plate.  Livan’s counterpart didn’t seem to mind the umpiring; Anibel Sanchez had a no-hitter through 7 and struck out 11.
• Tom Gorzelanny couldn’t get out of the 5th on 5/13 (box/gamer), putting up an unsightly line: 4 2/3ip, 8hits and a walk leading to 4 runs.  He got torched by the (very tough) first half of Florida’s lineup in the first and Riggleman yanked him when he got into trouble again in the 5th.  He was already on 88 pitches when departing.

Starter Trends

MLB Trends (through gorz 5/13)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso,bad,good
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad,good
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad,good
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good,great
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good,bad

Relievers of Note

• Here’s Henry Rodriguez‘s outing on Sunday 5/8: 6 batters faced, 3 walks, 2 wild pitches, one weak grounder and two strike outs.  1 inning pitched, 1 earned run on zero hits.  27 pitches but only NINE for strikes.  This is just NOT going to cut it.  Further evidence as seen in the 5/12 game, further commented here.
• Is Sean Burnett suddenly becoming a liability out of the pen?  He retired no-one on 5/10, helping to nearly blow a 6-run lead.  He had several clean outings before that, but a stretch in mid-april has his season era near 6.00.  He’s not getting nearly the K/9 rates that he was last year (4.0 this year versus 8.9 last year).  Is his arm hurt?
• How about Drew Storen?  Riggleman still won’t commit to him as the closer, but actions speak louder than words.  As of 5/11’s game (where he earned the win by being the pitcher of record when the team scored 4 in the 11th) he’s pitched 20 2/3 innings and given up ONE run.  And we were worried about him coming out of spring training?  For all those who are talking about whether or not he’s not as “good” as Aaron Crow, you’re crazy.  Give me a shutdown closer over a middle reliever who couldn’t hack it as a starter in the minors any day.

Thoughts on the offense

Riggleman is starting to make the right decisions by playing Wilson Ramos and Laynce Nix more and more, and they’re 2 of the best 3 producing offensive players we have right now.  Its a small sample size, but Roger Bernadina looks like he may stick in the leadoff/center field spot even when Ankiel is back.

Why exactly was Slaten left in to pitch 2+ innings last night? Photo Getty Images via zimbio.com

There’s no other way to put it, after watching the unfolding of last night’s bullpen meltdown; carrying Brian Broderick and Henry Rodriguez on this team is having the effect of shortening the bullpen from 7 guys to 5, and is costing this team wins by not allowing Jim Riggleman to put in the right guys at the right time.

WP Beat reporter Adam Kilgore put it more politely, calling the carrying of two essentially worthless pitchers an “unusual roster construction.”  You know what I call it?  A GM who is hand-cuffing his manager.

I have complained in this space several times (mostly summed up here in this March 2011 post) about the implications of the Nats having 3 of their 12 pitchers (Tom Gorzelanny in addition to Broderick and Rodriguez) be essentially “locked” onto the 25-man active roster.  Its one of my main criticisms of the Josh Willingham deal in general; see my post for more opinion but to have only a right handed reliever who your manager cannot use in return for your #5 hitter of the past two years is my definition of a trade failure).  Gorzelanny has pitched much better than anticipated and his roster spot hasn’t been questioned (though for me, that wasn’t always the case either).

To say nothing of this plain fact: If you can’t trust a reliever to come into a close game and get outs, then he should NOT BE ON THE ROSTER.  Its as simple as that.  And clearly neither Broderick or Rodriguez currently falls into that category.

What is the answer?  Mike Rizzo needs to do three things, almost immediately:

1. Invent another “injury” and put Rodriguez back on the DL.  Send him to extended spring, put him back on rehab assignments and tell him he needs to either throw strikes or take a hike.
2. Call St. Louis’ GM and work out a PTBNL trade for Broderick.  Enough is enough; he projects as a #5 starter (maybe) on a team that has 4 good starters.  Is he really part of the future for this team?  Is he going to be better than any of Detwiler, Maya, Meyers, Solis, or Peacock in 2012?  Because that’s who he’s competing with for rotation spots in 2012 (figuring that at least 3 are already spoken for in Strasburg, Zimmermann and Gorzelanny).  Trade for him so you can option him to Syracuse.
3. With these two spots opened up, recall Collin Balester and call up Cole Kimball so you can actually have two useful guys in your pen who you can trust.  If you’re so in love with Rodriguez’s power, Kimball throws nearly as hard and has put up far better bb/9 numbers in AAA.  Balester has been in the majors before, put up great numbers in 2010 out of the pen, and can pitch long relief if needed as a former starter.

Its time for Rizzo to acknowledge his errors in roster construction and fix them.

(As an aside: Jim Riggleman is not totally without fault here: per Ben Goessling‘s report last night, “Todd Coffey and Tyler Clippard [needed] a night off and Drew Storen [was] being saved for a lead.”  Why let Sean Burnett stay in to get out one of Atlanta’s best hitters in Martin Prado?  Why not bring in Storen at this point and use him as the “fireman?”  Is it because he’s the “closer” and you save your closer for save situations?  I certainly hope this wasn’t his thinking.  A managers *should* use his best relievers in the highest leverage situations, and last night Storen should have been used to get out of a bases loaded jam against a tough right-handed hitter, instead of leaving in a lefty who has struggled lately.  But, this post is more about roster construction than reliever use, a topic for another day, and a larger issue in baseball in general).

AJ Cole may have been the "name" 2010 draftee debut, but Robbie Ray stole the show. Photo: Natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

Lots of interesting news for the minor league rotations this time around.  The big news, (and I was as surprised by this news as Sue Dinem over at NationalsProspects.com) was the sudden promotion of both A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray to Hagerstown.  Cole’s promotion makes him the 3rd youngest pitcher in the Sally League (and Ray the 6th youngest) and is a fantastic indicator of the progress these guys have apparently made.  I thought at best they’d play in extended spring until the short seasons start, and then (maybe) play in short-A ball.

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Saturday 5/7 game reviews (Potomac DH, Selik Potomac Debut, Cole Hagerstown debut)
• Sunday 5/8 game reviews
• Monday 5/9 game reviews (Meyers Syracuse debut, Robbie Ray Hagerstown Debut)
• Tuesday 5/10 game reviews
• Wednesday 5/11 game reviews

Good

• We’ll give Yunesky Maya a “good” for his 5/7 outing: 6⅔ IP 5H 2R 2ER 1BB 7K.  A “real” quality start with a K/inning, only one walk and a WHIP on the day < 1.0.    The third consecutive effective outing for Maya, coupled with a loss of form out of Detwiler, may be putting Maya into the pole position for “first Chief called up” if needed.
• Potomac Ace Denny Rosenbaum put in a great 5/8 outing to salvage one win out of a four-game set against Kinston.  His outing: 7IP 6H 1R 1ER 1BB 7K.  Unfortunately he got a no-decision for his efforts.
• How about Robbie Ray‘s 5/9 Hagerstown Debut?  No-hitter through 4, just one hit (and two batters above the minimum) through 5 complete innings.  Per Kilgore, not only did he not walk a guy, he never went 3balls on anyone either.  59 pitches, 46 strikes.  Line: 5IP 1H 0R 0BB 6K.  Yeah, that’s fantastic, especially for such a young starter.  WP Beat reporter Adam Kilgore wrote up Ray’s debut here.
• Tom Milone had another excellent start in Syracuse on 5/10: 7⅔ IP 5H 3R 3ER 0BB 7K 1HR.  He was perfect through 3 and gave up just one hit through 6.  Oddly, after giving up a few sharp hits in the 7th he was brought back for the 8th, where he gave up a homer and a double before being taken out.  Perhaps the AAA manager was trying to stretch him out a bit, or get him to work through some adversity.
• Craig Stammen helped the Chiefs win their 3rd straight on 5/11 with this line: 7⅓ IP 5H 2R 2ER 0BB 6K 1HR.

Bad

• As Sue Dinem chronicled, Ryan Tatusko “labored” in his latest Harrisburg start on 5/7, giving up 9 hits (including 2 long balls) in just 3 innings pitched.
• Brad Peacock was cruising along in his 5/8 start, having retired 12 of the first 14 batters he faced before just falling apart in the 5th inning.  A walk and then 5 straight hits knocked him out of the game, giving him his worst start of the year.  Final line: 4⅓ IP 6H 5R 5ER 2BB 6K.
• Chris McKenzie got hammered again in Hagerstown on 5/8: 2IP 7H 7R 7ER 2BB 3K.  He probably loses his spot when Taylor Jordan comes off the 7-day DL.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Cameron Selik‘s Potomac debut on 5/7 went ok; 6IP 4H 3R 2ER 4BB 3K 2HR.  He must have been amped up for his appearance; 8 of his 10 outs were recorded by fly balls, indicating that his ball was up.  He also issued 4 walks.  Its hard to kill a guy on his debut after a well earned promotion, especially if his only two earned runs were both on homers.
• Spot Starter (presumably) Evan Bronson was the unlucky loser on 5/7, giving up just 1 earned run in 4 2/3 but taking the loss in the bottom half of the double-header.  Line: 4⅔ IP 5H 1R 1ER 2BB 0K.   We’ll have to see if Bronson takes Mitchell Clegg‘s rotation spot after a couple of serviceable outings.
• A.J. Cole‘s debut start in Hagerstown on 5/7 went ok.  His line: 3⅔ IP 5H 2R 2ER 2BB 3K 1HR.  He seemed to scatter the hits and walks well, and may have gotten a rather quick hook in the 4th (he had two outs and had just given up a single, it wasn’t as if he was getting clocked that inning).  He’s got plenty more starts to show us what he has.
• Another mediocre start from supposed ready-for-the-majors starter Ross Detwiler in Syracuse on 5/8.  6IP 6H 4R 4ER 3BB 6K.  He needs to do better; he should be dominating these weaker AAA hitters, not getting bounced around.
• Brad Meyers gets a mediocre for his first AAA start on 5/9; 5IP 5H 4R 4ER 1BB 5K.  He gave up two quick hits and a run to open the game, then retired 10 straight before leaking a 2nd run in the 4th.  In the 5th a leadoff walk came back to burn him, scoring on an infield grounder before a triple scored the 4th and last run he surrendered.  All in all, his ERA will look bad (7.20 on the night) but he only gave up 6 baserunners in 5 innings.
• Erik Arneson had a decent first AA start on 5/9, going for 5⅓ IP 5H 2R 2ER 1BB 6K.  I’m putting it mediocre on account that Arneson is 27 and should be in AAA, not putting up quality starts in AA.
• Michell Clegg‘s 5/9 start was certainly better than his last: 5IP 6H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K.  He’s still  yet to really put in a dominating start in Potomac.
• I can’t quite give Shairon Martis a “good” outing for his quality start on 5/10: 6IP 6H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K 1HR.  Perhaps its because i’m holding him to a higher standard, perhaps its because he’s not really dominating AA hitters like he should.  To me, a guy that pitched a half a season in a big-league rotation should be shutting out AA hitting.
• On the fact of it, Trevor Holder‘s 5/10 line in Potomac was pretty bad: 6⅓ IP 8H 5R 4ER 0BB 2K.  However, reading the game log you get a different story.  After giving up 2 runs in a rough 2nd inning, Holder pitched 4 relatively clean innings.  He fell apart int he 7th though, giving up 4 straight hits and 3 runs.  Still, not enough Ks for me.  Holder has yet to put in a “good” line this season and it should be just a matter of time before Frias or Bronson replaces him in the Potomac rotation.
• Bobby Hansen had a ho-hum quality start on 5/10: 6IP 7H 3R 2ER 3BB 4K.  Too many base-runners for me, despite his getting the win.
• Erik Davis‘s 5/11 start was cut short after 2 innings with a knee injury.
• Taylor Jordan‘s return from the DL in Hagerstown on 5/11 was ok: 6IP 7H 5R 2ER 0BB 0K.  I like the 6ip with no walks, but did not like his 3rd inning; he gave up 6 straight hits to give up 5 runs, though only 2 were earned because of a couple errors thrown in.  All in all, a good return back for Hagerstown’s new “Ace.”
• Paul Demny‘s 5/11 start in Potomac was just on this side of bad: 6ip 4hits, 4runs, 2 walks and 6ks.  He gave up two bombs but still hung on to get the victory.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• MASN’s Byron Kerr featured Potomac’s GWU graduate Pat Lehman in this piece.  He’s definitely pitching lights out as the P-Nats closer, having only given up one run in 11 innings so far this year.
• Jimmy Barthaimer let Saturday’s 5/7 Harrisburg game get completely out of control, giving up 5 earned runs in just an inning.  It sounds as if some shaky defense and a missed call caused him to lose his focus.  It happens (especially in the minors, where neither umpires or your defense is as good as you need it to be on the mound), but you have to work around it.  To make matters worse, he followed this performance up on 5/11 by giving up 5 runs in 3 relief innings (albeit with 5 Ks).
• Matt Chico‘s attempts to convert to being a reliever continue to go badly, getting shelled on 5/11 to the tune of 2IP 5H 5R 4ER 0BB 1K 1HR.
• Selik seems to have taken Marcos Frias’ rotation spot for the time being, though the rain-out/double headers in Potomac make it somewhat difficult to tell for sure.  Someone definitely has to make way though; I can’t see the team going to a 6 man rotation.
• Jeff Mandel continues to look sharp in the Syracuse pen, holding a 0.57 whip through 7 innings.
• Cole Kimball looks nearly as good in the Syracuse pen, having yet to give up a run through 11 2/3 innings and the first week of march in the closer role.  He’s got a bit too many walks but lots of Ks and not a lot of hits.
• There must have been something in the water in Harrisburg on Sunday; after Peacock fell apart both Matt Chico and Carlos Martinez both got hammered as well, contributing to a 15-6 loss.
• Josh Smoker may be finally putting it together in Potomac; he has 1 ER in 11 2/3 innings through 5/8.  A bit too many walks, but he’s also getting lots of Ks.  He worked out of a jam quite nicely on 5/10.
• Christopher Manno keeps on cruising; 2 scoreless innings and another 2Ks on 5/8 give him a fairly ridiculous line on the season right now.  22ks versus 2bbs in 14 1/3 innings as of 5/8.  There are guys in the Potomac bullpen holding on by a thread (Wort and Olbrychowski in particular) that could make way, soon.
• Ryan Mattheus, a AA reclamation project at this point in his career, is pitching pretty well post-surgery.  One run allowed in 12 innings on the season so far.  He’s a former 40-man member and is probably a bit too experienced for AA, but it is a good sign that he’s pitching well.
• Matt Grace seems to have lost his rotation spot with Jordan’s return from the DL and the promotions of Cole and Ray.

Trends

AAA trends (in rotation order)
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso
Meyers    soso
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great,good
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso,good

AA Trends:
Martis     bad,bad,soso,soso
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad,soso,incomplete (knee injury)
Tatusko    soso,bad,bad,soso,good,bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad
Arneson    soso

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good
Clegg        soso,soso,soso,unbelievably bad,soso
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso,soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso
Selik        soso

Low-A Trends:
Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl,soso
Cole        soso
McKenzie    good,bad,bad,bad,good
Ray        great
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good,soso,soso

Top 5 deserving promotion: Manno, Rosenbaum, Lehman, Kimball, Mattheus
Top 5 whose jobs are in jeopardy: McKenzie, Wort, Olbrychowski, Barthmaier, Tatusko

Despite being in our system for years, Ross Detwiler is still “really young” for AAA. Photo: Haraz Ghanbari/AP via federalbaseball.com

Following up on a previous post discussing the “age appropriateness” of pitchers in the minor leagues, I thought it would be interesting to look at the pitching staffs at the Nationals various affiliates and take a look at the ages.  NOTE: I did most of this analysis prior to the promotions of AJ Cole and Robbie Ray to Hagerstown.  I’ll put in notes about them in the appropriate section.

To review, based on dividing the ages of every pitcher in each league into quartiles, and then naming the quartiles, here’s our starting point:

Here’s an affiliate-by-affiliate look at the pitching staffs, their ages and how that age is “ranked.”  Syracuse first:

Not surprisingly, several names (Martin, Mock) are included as being “old” for the level.  Maya is a special case of course.  Ironically, a lot of these players are young or really young for the level.  Of note would be Tommy Milone, who is the 23rd youngest pitcher in the International league (out of 193 pitchers) and is holding his own in the rotation.  Ironically, Ross Detwiler “seems” to be much older than he really is, since his name has been in the minds of Nats fans for years, but he’s still quite young even for AAA.  Brad Meyers recent promotion counts him in the younger category as well, a good sign for our continued player development.

Trivia: The youngest pitcher in the International League was (at the time of this analysis) Julio Teheran, uber-Braves prospect who turned 20 in April and is seemingly ready for his MLB debut.  The rich get richer.  In fact, he did get promoted and made a start on Saturday 5/7 for Atlanta.  Meanwhile the oldest pitcher in the International league is Mark Hendrickson, who last appeared in a minor league game in 2003.  He didn’t make the Orioles’ roster out of spring and is trying to hang on.

Here’s Harrisburg:

What is concerning here is the number of “Really Old” pitchers we have on the staff in Harrisburg.  Luckily they’re all relievers, not considered key prospects going forward.  The best starter in AA (Brad Peacock) is quite young for the level (22nd youngest of 166 hurlers in the league).  Other starters in Harrisburg are on the “right side” of the median, including Davis and Martis.  Tatusko is getting too old for the level (hence my prediction that he’d be promoted prior to the season), and probable rotation replacement member Arneson is definitely too old for the level to be considered a prospect.

Interesting trivia; the oldest pitcher in the Eastern league is one Kei Igawa, who also holds the distinction of being (in my opinion) the worst FA starting pitcher ever signed based on dollars per win for the life of his contract plus posting fee.  Meanwhile the youngest AA pitcher is Detroit Tiger’s 2009 1st round pick Jacob Turner, who is holding his own after getting drafted out of high school.

Here’s Potomac:

By virtue of the number of college pitchers we’ve drafted in the past couple of  years, we have a stockpile of these guys who now make our Potomac roster seem relatively old.  Our ace in Potomac Danny Rosenbaum is almost exactly the median age of pitchers in his league (he’s listed as “old” but missed the cutoff by a few days).  Same with newly promoted Cameron Selik, who now pitches in a league where he’s almost exactly the average age.  Potomac’s 2nd most effective starter this season has been Paul Demny, who is the 15th youngest pitcher of a 112 in the league.  Its great to see such a youngster pitching so effectively.  Meanwhile Mitchell Clegg and Trevor Holder are relatively old for the level already and are struggling this year, a sign they may be moved to the bullpen or be defined as “non-prospects” sooner or later.

Lastly, here’s Hagerstown pre Cole and Ray:

All things considered, we’re fielding a relatively young-for-the-level pitching staff in Hagerstown.  The two youngest starters (Bobby Hansen and Chris McKenzie) are right at the 25th percentile cusp (so they’re still young for the league but not amazingly so).  That being said, Hansen is probably Hagerstown’s 2nd most effective starter after Taylor Jordan, and they’re both young for the league.  Even the two oldest starters in Hagerstown (Matt Grace and Paul Applebee) are both right around the median age for pitchers in the league.  Selik was very old for the league before earning his promotion, possibly a sign that his age allowed him to dominate younger guys.  Only the bullpen guys are “old” or “really old” for the league, and even they are not “overly” old.

AJ Cole and Robbie Ray, named to the team over the weekend, become the 3rd and 6th youngest pitchers in the league.  This is all the more interesting considering Ray’s sterling 5/9 debut.

Summary

The younger guys we have in Syracause are for the most part the prospects; the older guys are mostly organizational arms not likely to feature in the majors.  We are definitely “old” in both Harrisburg and Potomac, all the more concerning since both staffs are struggling.  I like how young we are in Hagerstown, considering just how well that team is playing (19-10, 1/2 game out of first having played a ton of away games so far).

All Tom Milone has done since getting drafted, is win. Photo: Tom Priddy/Four Seam Images/milb.com

Here are the daily links from NationalsProspects, for reference below:

• Monday 5/2 game reviews
• Tuesday 5/3 game reviews (Syracuse ppd)
• Wednesday 5/4 game reviews (Syracuse and Hagerstown off)
• Thursday 5/5 game reviews
• Friday 5/6 game reviews (Potomac rained out, again)

Good

• JD Martin rebounded on 5/2 from his previous crummy starts, throwing 5 1/3 innings, giving up 5 hits and a walk but conceding no earned runs.  He didn’t exactly dominate Rochester (1K) but Martin isn’t exactly a swing-and-miss pitcher.
• Ryan Tatusko threw a dominant start on 5/2: 6⅔ IP 2H 0R 3BB 9K.  A bit wild, but 9Ks over 6+ innings is a good sign.
• Potomac Ace Danny Rosenbaum put in a decent performance on 5/2; 7IP 3H 0R 3BB 4K.  He wiggled out of a bases-loaded jam in the third and then retired 10 straight to close out 7 complete.
• Chris McKenzie pulled himself out of the coach’s doghouse with his 7IP 4H 0R 1BB 2K performance on 5/2.  I’d like to see more swing-and-miss out of him, but 7 scoreless is good enough in my book.
• Brad Peacock had another ho-hum great outing on 5/3:  7IP 2H 0R 1BB 8K.   His season numbers are almost comically good right now.   1.16 era, 0.76 whip.  36/4 k/bb ratio in 31 innings.  One has to think he’s the next to move up to AAA.  His performance earned a mention on Baseball America’s hotsheet (h/t to Steven Biel at FJB for the link)
• Brad Meyers, as with Peacock, put in another solid outing on 5/4: 7IP 8H 2R 2ER 0BB 7K.  It wasn’t quite as dominant as in the past, but it was good enough to earn him a promotion (see notes below).
• Tom Milone had a fantastic rebound start on 5/5 for Syracuse: 7IP 4H 1R 1ER 1BB 11K.  Eleven strikeouts in 7 innings for the young left-hander.

Bad

• Mitchell Clegg‘s outing is only in the “bad” section because there isn’t an “unbelievably bad” section.  Here’s his line from his 5/3 start in Potomac: 3⅔ IP 13H 11R 7ER 1BB 1K 1HR.  Thirteen hits in 3 2/3’s inning; that’s like a line from one of my adult baseball leagues.

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• We’ll give Taylor Jordan and incomplete for his 5/3 outing, shortened when he took a line-drive off his non-pitching elbow.  Line upon exit: 2⅓ IP 3H 1R 1ER 0BB 0K.  He ended up going on the DL as a precaution, allowing the team to add 2010 draft pick Neil Holland for his first appearance in full season A ball.
• Trevor Holder may be holding onto his starter’s job a bit longer, after putting in a serviceable 5/4 start in Potomac.  Line: 5+ IP 5H 2R 2ER 0BB 3K.  He was ejected in the top of the 6th for arguing a safe/out call at first.  His performance was probably closer to good than bad; the hits were well scattered, the 2nd earned run was charged to him when his replacement (Dean Weaver) walked, hit a guy and then walked a run home in a situation that had to drive the starter crazy.
• Shairon Martis was able to improve on his bad form, but still put in a relatively mediocre AA start on 5/5.  Line: 5IP 7H 3R 2ER 3BB 5K 1HR.  That’s 10 baserunners in 5 innings for a former major league starter.  He doesn’t seem to be in immediate jeopardy of losing his rotation spot, but it could come soon.
• Paul Demny got no offensive support and took the loss despite his quality start for Potomac on 5/5.  Line: 6IP 4H 2R 2ER 4BB 3K.  The walks knocked this to the “so-so” category.
• Bobby Hansen put a lot of baserunners on, but his hitters bashed their way to a Win for him for Hagerstown on 5/5.  Line: 5IP 8H 2R 2ER 1BB 3K.
• Craig Stammen gave up quite a few hits on 5/6, and it ended up costing him.  9 hits through 6 innings, but what did him in was the two hits he gave up to open the 7th, which were subsequently inherited and scored on his reliever’s watch.  So in the end, not the worst outing of his career but bad enough to tag him with a loss.
• Erik Davis started out his outing dominantly (facing the minimum through four), but leaked a couple runs in the 5th before giving up another 3 (though they ended up being unearned) in the 6th.  Final line: 5⅔ IP 4H 5R 2ER 3BB 3K.
• Matt Grace had a quality start on 5/6, but too many walks pushed his performance into the mediocre.  Line; 6⅓ IP 6H 2R 1ER 3BB 3K.

Relievers of Note and other Thoughts

• Per a flurry of Potomac roster moves on 5/4, Cameron Selik got a well deserved promotion to Potomac.   Whose rotation spot does he take?  My guess is Holder‘s, since it seems to match up with Selik’s normal rest.  That and Holder was probably the worst of the existing Potomac starters, Clegg’s awful night notwithstanding.
• Continuing the promotions news, on 5/5 Brad Meyers earned a long-deserved promotion to AAA.  I’m guessing that JD Martin makes way in the Syracuse rotation, though the corresponding move seems to have been to demote Matt Chico to Harrisburg.
• Chico’s demotion may be a death knell for his career; after falling off the 40-man and being removed from the rotation, he’s put in a mediocre 5+ ERA so far as a middle reliever and now a 27 (soon to be 28) yr old in AA.  That’s not good.
• Dean Weaver pops up as well, having been reinstated (and promoted from last season’s final destination) in Potomac from the opening day DL/extended spring training.
• Ryan Mattheus, somewhat of a forgotten man in Harrisburg, got a 1 1/3 inning save where he struck out all four guys for outs on 5/2.
• Paul Applebee filled ably on very short notice, taking the mound after his starter got knocked from the game and gave Hagerstown enough quality long relief to preserve the win.  His 5/3 line: 3⅔ 2H 1R 1ER 0BB 0K 1HR.  He still has an ugly 6.16 era on the season.  Perhaps its his mustache; its reminiscent of the rookie on the state police force who is trying to grow something to fit in.
• Kyle Morrison was released from Potomac earlier this month.  Not that he was a massive part of the future, but it seems to me that if we’re basing these release decisions on some combination of age/performance, how does Morrison go with a 9k/9 ratio while his cohort Adam Olbrychowski has conspired to walk as many guys (10) as he’s struck out and is a year older?
• Tough outing for Cole Kimball on 5/6, needing 50-some pitches to get through 2 innings and allowing both his inherited runners to score, costing his team the game.

Trends

AAA trends:
Maya        bad,soso,soso,good,great,good
Detwiler    good,good,soso,soso,bad,soso
Milone    good,soso,soso,bad,great
Stammen    good,soso,great,bad,soso
Meyers
(Arneson    soso)
(Mock        good,bad,really bad->DL)
(Martin     bad,bad,good->demoted for Meyers)

AA Trends:
Martis     bad,bad,soso
EDavis    good,soso,good,bad,soso
Tatusko    soso,bad,bad,soso,good,bad
Peacock    soso,good,great,good,very good,bad
Arneson
(Barthmaier    bad)
(Atilano    soso,bad->DL)
(Meyers    good,bad,good,great,good,good->promoted)

High-A Trends:
Rosenbaum    soso,good,good,soso,good,good
Holder    soso,bad,bad,soso,soso
Frias        good,good,bad,soso
Demny        good,bad,good,good,soso
Clegg        soso,soso,soso,unbelievably bad,
Selik        soso
(Bronson    good,soso)
(Caldera bad,bad->released)

Low-A Trends:
Grace        good,bad,bad,bad,good,soso
Cole        soso
McKenzie    good,bad,bad,bad,good
Ray
Hansen    soso,good,very bad,very good,soso
(Applebee    bad,soso,bad)
(Selik    good,good,good,great,good->promoted)
(Jordan    good,soso,good,good->dl)

Top 3 deserving promotion: Peacock, Lehman and Manno
Top 3 whose jobs are in jeopardy: Clegg, McKenzie, Holder

Rodriguez getting ready to fire in another pitch that he has no idea where its going. Photo via humorfeast.blogspot.com

Here’s Henry Rodriguez‘s outing on Sunday 5/8: 6 batters faced, 3 walks, 2 wild pitches, one weak grounder and two strike outs.  1 inning pitched, 1 earned run on zero hits.  27 pitches but only NINE for strikes.

This gives him, as of Sunday, a grand total of 5 innings pitched on the year.  In those 5 innings he’s only given up 1 run (today’s) and three hits.  He also has 7 strikeouts in those 5 innings.  But he now has 6 walks and 3 wild pitches in those same 5 innings.  His ERA may be nifty (1.80) but his WHIP is the same (1.80), which is really bad for a late-innings reliever.

Adding insult to injury, as Steven at FJB pointed out tonight, Steve McCatty and Jim Riggleman’s comments about the reliever are rather ridiculous.  Per WashingtonTimes.com beat reporter Amanda Comak‘s story, Riggleman said that Rodriguez “needs to get sharper before we can get him into bigger spots.”  Hmm; isn’t that what spring training is for?  Oh yeah, Rodriguez showed up 3-weeks late, but the Nats couldn’t do jack about it except invent an injury to stash him on the DL to start the season since he’s out of options despite a grand total of 36 mlb innings in his career.

He’s now replaced Brian Broderick as the lowest-leverage use reliever in the Nats bullpen.  In other words, the guy you would be least likely to bring into a close game.  For a team already carrying a rule-5 reliever, this shortening of the bullpen means that manager Jim Riggleman is now basically playing with a 5-man pen on any night where the team has a lead or the game is close.  And, as noted several times in this space, Rodriguez’s lack of options handcuffs the team’s roster flexibility.

How about the other player we got in the Willingham deal?  Corey Brown?  Oh, he’s hitting .202 in AAA.  But, he’s gotten hits in his last four games, so there’s that.

Yes, we are talking about small sample sizes.  We’re only 5 weeks into the season.  But no matter how slowly Willingham is starting off himself in Oakland, he’s still out-performing our current left field platoon.  Oh, and his 5 homers would be leading the team, and his 104 ops+ would be 3rd best on the squad (behind injured Ryan Zimmerman and part-time catcher Wilson Ramos).

Did Rizzo make a god-awful deal?  Or is it too early?  Or do I keep needing to tell myself, “hey, this team isn’t winning in 2011, so this is the best season to experiment with guys like Rodriguez to see what you have?”  Sure; i tell myself that all the time.  But this team has potential; they’re nearly .500 despite their horrible offense.

But in the end, it seems to me that we’ve traded our #5 hitter, a guy who always produced for us and who was a popular clubhouse guy, for a reliever we can’t use, and a minor league outfielder who’s in danger of getting benched in Syracuse.

Gorzelanny, our #5 pitcher, is starting to look like our #1. Photo Ed Wolfstein

After a surprising 3-1 series at home against San Francisco, and after a fantastic run through the rotation, the team hits the road for 3 straight divisional series away and a set of games that could easily define their season.  How did our pitchers fare?  Not terribly well.  A sweep in Philadelphia gave the team a worst-case start to this critical road trip, but they then took two of the first three in Florida (surprisingly; they’ve been awful in Miami for years).

Here’s how our pitchers looked this go-around:

Good

• Jordan Zimmermann may not have gotten the win for his 5/6 outing (box/gamer) but he pitched pretty well.  6ip, 2 runs for a “real” quality start.  Zimmermann’s k/9 rate is way way down from his performances in the past; he’s only got 24 in 41 innings.  By way of comparison in 2010 he had 27 in 31 on the comeback trail, and in 2009 he had 92 in 91 innings.  Unless he’s purposely pitching to contact this drastic reduction in Ks/9 is worrisome.
• Tom Gorzelanny had his third straight good-to-great outing, beating the Marlins on 5/7 (box/gamer).  He only gave up 2 hits through 7 innings, though a walk and a homer tagged him with 2 earned runs.  Gorzelanny is turning into a find for this team.  He’s the only starter who has yet to really have a bad outing and continues to pitch really well.

Bad

• Jason Marquis couldn’t follow up on his 5-hit gem and got pounded at the “Link” in Philadelphia on 5/4 (box/gamer).  Line: 5ip, 10hits (!), 7runs (6 of which were earned) and only 2ks.  Ugh.  His first “meltdown” of the season.
• If Marquis’ start was bad, then I guess John Lannan‘s needs a new category.  Lannan becomes the first Nats pitcher not to complete the 5th inning this season, only lasting 2 innings in an ugly 5/5 loss (gamer/box).  Line: 6runs on 7 hits in 2innings completed (he faced 6 consecutive batters without retiring one to open the 3rd inning).

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Livan Hernandez is Mr YoYo.  One good outing, one medicore one.  One great outing, then one bad.  On Tuesday 5/3 he had an off night (gamer/box), getting battered around for 10 hits and an additional 4 walks (two of which were intentional, and one of THOSE was clearly against his wishes when facing Ryan Howard).  In the end, it wouldn’t have mattered since his offense mustered only one run (on a solo shot from Michael Morse).  Final line: 6 1/3, 10hits, 4 runs, 4 bb, 4ks and a loss.

Starter Trends

MLB Trends (through 5/7)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good

Relievers of Note

• One day after a relatively electrifying MLB debut for the team, Henry Rodriguez showed what we can probably expect in the longer term.  On 4/30, he threw 11 fastballs that averaged 98.7mph and got two strikeouts in a clean 1 inning of work.  On 5/3 he threw 24 pitches, walked two guys, allowed a hit and got no strikeouts.  He showed a change up (a 90mph changeup, nice), but could not control his slider.  I think the jury is still out on this guy.  But he had to be a pretty amazing change of pace after Livan for 6 innings.  On 5/5 he got stretched out a bit but had another typical up and down session; 2 hits and a walk and 3Ks in 2 innings.
• Tyler Clippard had a pretty good line on friday 5/5: 6 batters faced, 6 strike outs.  Adam Kilgore reviewed the outing here.  He now has 27 Ks in 21 innings so far and an ERA+ of 301 on the season.
• Storen continues to be electric in the closer role.  He’s given up just one earned run in 17 appearances thus far, good for an 805 ERA+.  Can’t ask much more out of your fireman.

Thoughts on the offense

The continued deficiency of the offense is reaching troubling areas.  We’re a month into the season; no more excuses about “slow starts” or “getting back into the swing of it.”  As of 5/7, the team is 5-17 when scoring four runs or less (and 10-0 when scoring five or more).  This sounds great; all we need to do is score 5 or more runs a game and we’re the ’29 Yankees.  If your offense is already struggling, and they know they have to score a ton of runs to have a shot, team morale could fade fast.

Overall Summary

Amazingly, the team hovers near .500 despite having the 15th or 16th NL ranked offense in most categories.  They’re batting as a team 79 OPS+, putting them 20% below average.  Rick Ankiel is taking his .221 batting average onto the DL for a couple weeks, giving Roger Bernadina his best yet chance to own Center field and the leadoff position.  If he were to succeed, it may be a great kick start for the team.

Cameron Selik dominated in Hagerstown before his Promotion, but was he "too old" for the level? Photo Eastcountysports.com

When looking at minor league teams and trying to assess talent, the notion of age and experience becomes important.  Quite simply, an older more experienced player will have the advantage over younger counterparts.  Even if the relative skill levels are the same, with age and with professional playing experience comes baseball wisdom that gives the older player the advantage.

So, when looking at prospects at various levels one has to take into account the players age, their number of years of professional experience, and their injury history along with performance to properly judge a player.

So the question really is, “How old is ‘too old’ for a player at a particular level.

I have always used a rule-of-thumb measurement advocated by John Sickels at minorleagueball.com for looking at player ages (I cannot find the original Sickels posting but have seen it attributed to him in several forums).  That rule-of-thumb is as follows:

• AAA: Typical Age range is 23-24.  Age 25 depends.  26+ is old
• AA: 22-23.  24 depends.  25+ is old
• High-A: 20-22.  23 depends.  24+ is old
• Low-A: 19-21.  22 depends.  23+ is old
• Short-A: 19-20.  21/22 for draft year guys only.  22+ is old
• GCL: 17-19.  20 for draft year guys only.  21+ is old

But does this scale make sense, especially for pitchers?  Lets consider two draft scenarios (note; we’re specifically NOT taking into account any injuries for the purposes of this “ideal case” argument, at least not yet):

1. You draft a high schooler at age 18.  Even if he signs quickly you’re probably not going to get a lot out of him his 18-yr old season because he’s already pitched a number of innings for his HS team.  So his probable progression as a prospect should be:

• Age 18/Draft year: a few innings in the Rookie League
• Age 19: Rookie League if he’s a normal with an eye towards moving up to short-A if he succeeds.
• Age 20: Low-A
• Age 21: High-A
• Age 22: AA
• Age 23: AAA

That’s 5 full pro seasons, by which time the former HSer is 23, should have traversed the entirety of the minor league system, is aged 23 and is just reaching rule-5 eligibility.  In fact, this progression is probably exactly how the rule5 rules were arrived at.

2. You draft a college junior at age 21.  Again, even if he signs quickly he’s finishing off a long college season so you don’t want to kill him, but this is exactly why the short season leagues exist.  So his normal progression would be:

• Age 21/Draft year: Short-A or possibly Rookie League
• Age 22: Low-A
• Age 23: High-A
• Age 24: AA
• Age 25: AAA

At which point he’s got 4 pro seasons and is also just reaching rule5 eligibilty.

HOWEVER; note that Sickel’s “rule of thumb” rules essentially rules any college draftee who is following a normal progression through the minors in the “depends” status.  To say nothing of a prospect who may suffer a major injury that costs them a season.  Plus, I don’t think a player can really be considered “too old” at age 22 in his first full season of pro ball in low-A, even if he’s going against a bunch of former HSers who are 2 years younger but playing in their third pro seasons.

So, perhaps the rule of thumb isn’t exactly correct.  Lets dig deeper and look at the actual rosters of minor league teams.

Here is a statistical analysis of age levels of every pitcher on the roster of the International, Eastern, Carolina and South Atlantic league (where the AAA, AA, High-A and Low-A affiliates of the Nationals play).  I took the rosters as they stood on 5/4/11 and calculated the average age, captured youngest and oldest, then grabbed the 25th, 50th (median) and 75% quartile age of the population.

Caveats to this data: it isn’t the entirety of the Minor leagues.  But for the International, Eastern and South Atlantic league it represents a sizeable portion of those leagues (14, 12 and 14 of the 30 teams at that level).  The Carolina league only has 8 of 30 high-A teams and may not be entirely representative of the high-A population.  A task for a rainy day.  Also, these are age-analysis of Pitchers only.  I did not take into account any rehab stints, but these older major leaguers will just skew the average age, and won’t affect he quartile ages that much.

Now, based on this analysis of this data, i’ll now say that anyone in the 0-25th quartile to be “really young” for that level, 25th-50th to be “young” for the level, 50th-75th to be “old” for the level, and 75th-100th quartile to be “really old” for that level.  Based on these new bench marks, here’s the new rule of thumbs:

Ironically, this list doesn’t look a whole lot different than Sickel’s rules of thumb. Perhaps he wasn’t that far off to begin with.

I’ll follow-up this post with a quick age-analysis of the starters in our system, to give context to their status and accomplishments.  To answer the first question about Cameron Selik, at age 23.7 he was “really old” for Low-A, and right now falls slightly into the “old” category for low-A.  So, while he was pitching fantastically in Hagerstown he also was one of the oldest pitchers in that league (161 out of 187 ranking).

Marquis' 5-hit shutout is the best outing we've seen since Strasburg. Photo: Ap via silive.com

The team is rocked by the news that star Ryan Zimmerman will miss another 6 weeks, on top of the last 17 games he’s already missed, due to a torn abdominal muscle.  To add insult to injury, the team is in a very difficult part of the schedule (SF at home, then away to Philadelphia, Florida and Atlanta 3 series in a row) that could very well see them plummet to the basement of the division.  Can their rotation help keep them near .500?

Good

• As he tends to do, Livan Hernandez followed up a sub-par outing with an excellent one, going 8 complete innings (Washington’s longest starter outing of the year), giving up 3 runs (2 earned) and spelling the burned-out bullpen in a 4-3 win over the Mets in the 4/28 series finale (box/gamer).  Livan gave up 7 hits and a walk to go with 5 strikeouts on the night.  He’s now averaging 6.5 IP per start (best on the staff) and though his Fip/Xfip are slightly worst than MLB median he’s holding steady for the team.
• Jason Marquis put in easily the best start of the season, and his best start for this team, pitching a 5-hit shutout on 4/29 (box/gamer).  He struck out 7, walked none, and needed just 96 pitches to finish off the light-hitting Giants.  The defeat of the Giants and ace Tim Lincecum continued an interesting pattern for the team of competing well against the opposing team’s ace (they’re 4-2 against the nominal “ace” of opposing rotations, beating Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Yovanni Gallardo, and Kevin Correia while falling to Derek Lowe and Roy Halladay).  If Marquis continues to pitch this well, the Nats could face a difficult decision later on in the season (trade or re-sign?).
• John Lannan pitched 6 very efficient innings before fading in the 7th long enough to give up a 2nd run, which proved to be enough to get him the loss on Saturday 4/30’s day game (box/gamer).  Final line: 6 2/3, 6 hits, 3 walks (one intentional) and 2 runs.  But he had given up just 4 hits and zero walks through 6 complete, a very dominant performance.  The 7th came apart on him very quickly, and he managed to load the bases and walk in the go-ahead run before Clippard could take the mound and escape the jam.  Riggleman called for a somewhat questionable intentional walk before Lannan managed to walk in the winning run.
• Jordan Zimmerman‘s line wasn’t that dominant for Sunday 5/1’s game (box/gamer); 6ip, 6hits, 2 walks, 4ks and 2 runs.  However watching the game you got a different story.  Both runs scored by virtue of a fluke-y bloop double that hit the left field line from a weak-hitting left-handed hitter.  One of the walks was intentional.  And 3 of the 6 hits he gave up were either infield singles or weakly hit balls.  So Jordan gets a quality start and his 2nd best game score of the season.
• Tom Gorzelanny nearly matched Marquis’ gem with his 8-inning, 3-hit and no walk performance on Military night, 5/1 (box/gamer).  The game took his season ERA down a full run (from 3.97 to 2.93).  I had to quibble a bit with the in-game management though from Riggleman; see this op-ed piece for my thoughts.

Trends

MLB Trends (through 5/2)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great

Thoughts on the offense

• Laynce Nix is starting to make a statement for this team, putting up a 150 OPS+ through part time action thus far.  He made his biggest statement yet in Friday’s start against Lincecum, punishing an 0-2 mistake from the young San Francisco Ace for an early 2-run homer.  However it was a foul-ball blast later in the game that everyone is talking about; Nix absolutely crushed an inside fastball about 10-feet foul, but it glanced off the THIRD deck of the Nats stadium.  Estimates put it at 450 feet or so, an incredible distance at a stadium that has seen scant balls hit in that area.  WP beat writer Adam Kilgore discussed this same point in the NatsJournal blog friday.  Nix gets so few at bats versus lefties that it is difficult to ascertain how his splits look, but with Mike Morse continuing to struggle (he’s not even slugging .300 from the left fielder spot) it may behoove the team to roll the dice and give Nix some full time opportunities.
• Can someone explain the role that Matt Stairs so excellently fulfills that he deserves a 25-man roster spot and $850k?  He gets 4 at bats a week, has yet to get a hit, and has more strikeouts than walks.  Wouldn’t there be more value in putting a player on the roster in his place who could actually *help* the team?

Overall Summary

All 5 starters threw what i’d call “good” or “great” starts, and the team went 4-1 in those starts.  That’s great news.  The hitters continue to struggle, with 6 of our 8 regulars hitting .233 or below.  These guys need to snap out of it soon.