He’ll be wearing this uniform for good. Photo via Crews’ instagram page.
With a bit of advance fanfare (news leaked on Friday 8/23/24 for his 8/26/24 call-up), the cornerstone of the Nats rebuild Dylan Crews has been called up.
He’ll take his place in an outfield that started the year Winker/Rosario/Thomas and which is set to end it with the all-prospect, all-under 24, all pre-arb set of players Wood/Young/Crews. I didn’t think we’d get to this point until at least May of 2025, and honestly I thought a year ago it’d be Hassell instead of Young, but here we are.
Crews’ AAA line in total (.265/.340/.455) doesn’t really look that dominant, or that worthy of getting called up. Even his improved August numbers (.289/.356/.513) bely a bit of a patience problem (just 5 walks in 18 games). But, consider that Bryce Harper got called up with pretty middling AAA numbers (.243/.325/.365) and went on to win the NL ROY in 2012. Speaking of Rookie of the year, the timing of the call-up should be just enough to preserve Crew’s rookie status (150 PAs) for next year while getting him some big league looks as the team plays out the string.
And why not call him up now? Even if Alex Call hadn’t hurt his foot, it makes zero sense to play anyone else for extended periods of time in the OF at this point. Blankenhorn? We’ve already outrighted him once. Garrett? The fact that he remains on the 40-man but has been passed over multiple times for obvious outfield vacancies should tell us everything we need to know regarding the state of his career after last year’s gruesome leg injury, unfortunately. Meneses? Can he even play the outfield? Gallo? why is he even still on the team at this point? In the final game before his call-up, the Nats rolled Gallo out to start in RF and we got the most Gallo-esque performance possible: 4 PAs, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk, and he now sports a season average of .165.
So, call him up, sell some tickets, let him get licked in meaningless games for a 4th place team playing out the string, and plan on 2025 come out firing with all our young guns in the lineup (Wood, Crews, Abrams, Garcia, Young, etc).
Ohtani hits his 40th of the season in grand style; a walk off grand slam against Tampa. Photo via Tampa Bay times
Shohei Ohtani added another achievement to his already lore-level career: he hit a walk-off grand slam for his 40th HR of the season to officially reach 40-40 status.
40-40 has only been done five other times in the history of the sport:
Jose Canseco, who did it in his MVP 1988 season at the age of 23 likely before PEDs took over his narrative. He hit a homer and had two SBs in a Sept 23rd 9-8 game as the 104-win Oakland team was cruising into the playoffs. Doing this at the age of 23 sent shockwaves through the sport, but Canseco’s injury-riddled career never really offered another opportunity for him to get another 40/40 season; he only hit 40 homers in two other seasons, and never again came close to 40 steals.
Barry Bonds, who did it in in 1996, in his age 31 season where he had a 188 OPS+ but somehow only finished 5th in MVP voting. He stole a bag in the final game of the season to get the achievement as his 68-win team was playing out the string. Bonds nearly did the feat again in 1997 (40/37) and then he entered his mid-30s PED era where he was much more of a slugger than a runner. It is only fitting that Bonds did the feat, considering that his father Bobby Bonds was the original pioneer for this feat, nearly doing it twice in his career in the 1970s.
Alex Rodriguezdid it in 1998 when he was just 22, hitting 42 homers and stealing 46 bags. It took a-Rod deep into September to get to 40/40 (game 153), getting his 40th homer for a middling Seattle team out of the playoffs. He added a couple more dongs and a couple more SBs to pad the stats. Like Canseco, doing this at age 22 seemed to really portend A-Rod repeating the feat for years to come, and indeed A-Rod became a home-run machine, hitting 40+ homers each season for basically the next decade, but he never came close to 40 SBs again despite being in his mid-20s prime.
Our own Alfonso Soriano, who did it for our awful 2006 Washington Nationals team during his one season here. The team signed him to a 1yr/ $10M deal as kind of a pillow contract after he had an ignominious exit from NY and a couple of middling seasons in Texas, and the early news was dominated by the team’s fight with him over where he was going to play. He initially refused to head to the outfield but eventually grudgingly trotted out in spring training to take his left field spot, where he played the rest of his career. Once we got past that, he certainly delivered for us; he was our all star that year and made national news with his 40/40 achievement. Soriano had been threatening 40/40 for a while, nearly doing it for New York in 2002 (39/41) and again in 2003 (38/35). In fact, he should have gotten the achievement in that 2022 season: he sat at 39 hrs and 40 SBs for two weeks in September but couldn’t get that 40th homer. As soon as he signed a big money deal with the Cubs for 2007 (manager, Lou Pinella, same guy managing A-Rod in his 40/40 time), his SBs dropped off considerably and he never came close again.
Ronald Acuna who went for 41/73 last season in his age 25 season, taking full advantage of the new pitching rules (which we’ll touch on later) to run up his SB count early and then getting his 40th homer deep into September to achieve the result. He hit his 40th in later september, right in the same game 153-154 range as most of the guys above, so he had some time to spare. Acuna nearly did the feat at age 22, going 41/37 in 2019, so this shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Unfortunately for Acuna, he blew out his ACL in May of this year, so it may be some time before we see him challenge 40/40 again. Acuna is still in his prime, and seems like an easy threat for 40/40 for a few more years assuming he gets the confidence back in his knee.
I feel like there should have been a 40/40 season prior to 1988, but likely candidates like Bobby Bonds, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, and a couple others just never quite made it there. Mantle never prioritized SBs and had a very bad knee injury early in his career, Bonds (as discussed above) nearly got there a couple times, Mays came close a couple times very early in his career in NY, Hank Aaron had a 44/31 season in the early 60s but was more of a steady power presence.
That leaves us with Ohtani, who as of this writing has exactly 40 hrs and 40 SBs, and achieved the plateau at least a month earlier than any of the 5 previous guys. Amazing. One just has to ask … does he have a shot at 50/50? Yeah, I think he does. He achieved this feat in game 129 of the season (126 that he played), which is amazing enough, but may just leave him enough time to do a 50/50 season.
Ohtani is averaging one HR every 14.45 PAs, and averaging one SB every 3.15 games. Assuming he plays every game the rest of the way (he’s played in 126 of the 129 games for the Dodgers, they have 33 games left, so I’ll assume he plays in 30 of those games, averaging 4.5 PAs per game).
30 games, 4.5PAs/game = 135 PAs left this season, divided by 1 hr/14.45 PAs = 9.3 homers projected the rest of the way.
30 games, one SB every 3.15 games = 9.5SBs projected the rest of the way.
So Ohtani statistically projects to a 49/49 season right now, rounding those numbers down. If he gets hot, or if he plays every game the rest of the way out maybe he gets enough additional looks to get to 50/50.
The new pitching rules have become a boon for stolen bases in the league, something that MLB knew quite well when they went to pitch clocks and limits on pickoff attempts. A few years ago the SB leaders were leading the league with 40-50 SBs. Already this year we have guys with 60 and its mid-august. And some of these guys have power: Elly De La Cruz leads the league with 60 SBs right now and he has 22 Homers to go with it and he’s in his 2nd pro season. Jose Ramirez isn’t exactly known for his speed, but he’s already sitting on a 30/30 season himself and could make a push for 40/40 with a hot September. So, hopefully we’ll see more of this going forward.
Tyler Bell is the highest profile player from the 2024 draft to turn down big money for a chance later at even bigger money. Photo BA.
Ever since we entered the draft pool bonus era, players not signing who were drafted in the top 10 have been a rarity. Oddly in 2024, with the draft signing deadline having just passed on 7/31/24, we saw four players not sign.
This post is a recycled post that tries to answer the question: “does it ever pay off for a player not to sign?” And I’ve added in the 2024 players for tracking and analysis going forward.
Lets take a look. Here’s a summary of the 13 years of players who were drafted but did not sign from the top 10 rounds. This analysis goes back to 2012, since that’s the beginning of the new draft rules.
2014: 6 (two of which were Nats picks: Andrew Suarez and Austin Byler in that ill-fated draft class, and one more who didn’t sign thanks to Houston’s screwing up the Brady Aiken deal and who was eventually granted free agency).
2013: 8
2012: 8
In total, 50 total players picked in the top 10 rounds in the last 13 drafts failed to sign, more than half in the first four years of the construct as teams/players/agents figured things out. The number of players drafted in the top 10 rounds varies slightly from year to year, but its roughly 300 players a year times 13 seasons, so at least 3,900 players picked in that time and probably more than 4,000 when you add in the dozens of supplemental and draft-compensation picks. So usually we see nearly 99% of the top 10 rounds of players sign.
Here’s the better question: did these players make major mistakes by NOT signing and taking the money?
Its a common refrain among pundits in the amateur baseball world (Keith Law in particular) that HS players should “take the money” if they’re drafted high enough. Certainly any first rounder would be a fool to turn away that kind of money, and mostly any prep player offered something in the upper 6 figure range should give serious consideration. MLB contracts generally include college tuition … so even if you sign out of HS you still have 4 years fully paid for in case you wash out. So instead of gambling on your health, or the fickleness of the baseball draft (where one bad start can cost you 30 spots in the draft and millions of dollars), take the cash when its offered.
But, don’t take our word for it. Lets look at the empirical evidence of every player over past drafts who has forgone the cash to see if there’s any trends.
(a caveat here: I did not look at the dollar amounts in every case; this is basically draft round analysis. Its possible that a 5th rounder in one year went in the 8th the next and got offered more money … but its quite rare with the new draft rules and bonus pools. Everything changed with the new CBA that went into effect in 2012).
Tyler Bell, a prep SS from an IL HS. Drafted in 2nd-supp (#66 overall), slot value of $1.26M. Failed to come to terms with Tampa Bay. Based on some quick googling, it looks like Tampa offered him around $1.5M to sign but got other over-slot guys to sign before Bell would, which cost them the overage it likely would have taken. Bell was a top100 draft prospect with a commit to Kentucky and will be a draft-eligible sophomore in 2026. Tampa gets a replacement pick at exactly #67 in 2025.
Chris Levonas, a prep RHP from a NJ HS. Drafted one pick after Bell as a 2nd round Supp (#67). Slot value: $1.23M. He was a higher ranked prospect than Bell, and he and Milwaukee couldn’t come to terms. Per my google research, Milwaukee had $3M to offer him, but Levonas was a significant prospect and decided to honor his commitment to Wake Forest. Milwaukee pivoted and spread out that $3M to several later picks. Milwaukee gets a replacement pick at exactly #68 in 2025.
Ryan Prager, a college junior LHP from Texas A&M. Los Angeles picked him in the 3rd round with a slot value of $948k. Per reporting in the Athletic, Prager was pretty open with teams about being open to coming back to school, earning his degree, and seeing if he could help TAMU get back to the title game. No numbers were discussed, but it sounds like the Angels drafted him without understanding his requirements nor what it would take to sign. Prager goes back to school, while the Angels will get a comp pick after the 3rd round in 2025 (meaning they’ll lose a couple dozen spots in the draft).
Jaxon Jelkin, a college junior RHP from Houston. The Mets drafted him in the 9th round (slot value $196,700). There’s not a lot of information out there. MLB’s scouting report notes that he made 7 starts for Houston then blew out his UCL, requiring TJ. They also note he was “dismissed” from Nebraska’s two years ago and has “severe makeup concerns.” Reportedly NY didn’t even make him a contract offer, which means technically he’s a free agent right now with a year of college eligibility left but with a TJ surgery likely putting him out for the entire 2025 college season. It might make more sense for him to take a pro contract and rehab at a pro facility instead of college, but we’ll see. New York will not get a comp pick here.
Obviously it’s too early to tell for all these four players if they made the right decision. I’ll say this: if you’re a prep player who gets offered $3M … you made a mistake not taking it. If indeed Levonas got that offer. Is he guaranteed to be a 1st rounder in three years? Same to a lesser extent for Bell, who turned down $1.5M. Prager? He may be able to do better next year. Jelkin? He should have signed. So, my too early verdicts are: 3 mistakes, 1 may work out.
Caden Kendle, a Jr OF from UC-Irvine taken in the 10th round by St. Louis. He apparently agreed to a $175k bonus (around 10k over slot), but then had a change of heart and decided to go back to school for his senior season.
Verdict: He refused a $175k, played another year, got drafted in the 5th round of 2024 and signed an under-slot deal for $147k. So, he lost money, and a year of pro development. He may have gained a college degree though, so that’s good.
Nolan McLean, a draft-eligible sophomore two-way player from Oklahoma State (RHP and 3B) who was picked by the Orioles at the top of the 3rd round. Baltimore found an issue in his medicals, so McLean went back to school. Slot bonus figure: $794k. Its unclear what bonus figure they agreed upon. McLean went back to school, and was picked again in the 3rd round in 2023, dropping 10 slots and signing for $747K with the Mets.
Brandon Sproat, a RHP sophomore from Florida, failed to sign with the Mets as a 3rd rounder (slot value $691k) for reasons unknown. He went back to school, then (amazingly) agreed to a re-draft by the Mets in 2023, who picked him in the 2nd round and signed him for $1.47M. Sproat also appears later on in this post because he refused to sign out of HS as well.
Brock Rodden, a 2B junior from Wichita State, failed to sign as a 10th rounder with Oakland (slot value: $151.3k). He went back to school, got drafted as a 5th rounder in 2023 and signed for $200k.
Verdict: McLean was not penalized for not signing, but it wasn’t really his choice since the team reneged. Sproat more than doubled his bonus offer from last year, and Rodden improved his by likely 25%. So, all three guys “worked out” in the end.
Kumar Rocker, RHP Vanderbilt, in a well publicized blow-up, the Mets drafted Rocker 10th overall and made a huge splash announcing a $6M over-slot bonus .. then ran into issues with his medicals, resulting in the two sides failing to agree on anything and the Mets passing on the Vanderbilt star altogether. Rocker’s agent (ahem, “advisor”) Scott Boras of course refused to make his medicals available ahead of time, and of course claimed that there was no injury, but the subsequent findings vindicated the Met’s decision. Rocker had shoulder surgery in the fall of 2021, then pitched in Indy ball in 2022 before shockingly getting drafted by the Rangers with the 3rd overall pick in 2022. He signed for $5.2M, well below the slot value, and well below the $6M he agreed to in 2021, but he was still an upper 1st rounder. He pitched in the fall league, then made a handful of starts in 2023 before …. tearing his UCL and having Tommy John. So, Perhaps the Mets were right all along.
Jud Fabian, OF Florida; saw his draft stock fall from a possible top-5 pick all the way out of the first round. But, he apparently had a $3M deal with Baltimore in the second, but those plans were foiled when Boston selected him at the beginning of the 2nd round. Fabian stuck to his bonus demands, and the two sides could not reach an agreement. Fabian went back to school and was a Comp-B pick in 2022, signing for $1.03M.
Alex Ulloa, prep SS from Texas failed to come to terms with Houston as a 4th round pick. Ulloa bailed out of an Oklahoma State commitment, went to Yavapai College Juco … and went undrafted in 2022 altogether. Again in 2023, but he did get a commit to U of Miami for 2024, his junior season. Failed to get drafted in 2024 altogether, now at Florida International.
Verdict: Rocker couldn’t beat $6M but still got $5.2M as damaged goods, so its hard to say he made a bad decision (not that it was entirely his to make with the Mets pulling the offer). Fabian lost out on $2M of bonus money, but we don’t know what money he turned down from Boston (odds are he lost out on the deal). Ulloa’s slot value was $492k in 2021; we don’t know what he was offered in 2021, but we went completely undrafted in 2022, so it seems safe to say he has lost out on money.
2020: in a shortened 5-round Covid-related draft, not one player picked in the 5 rounds failed to sign.
2019: 2 players did not sign from the top 10 rounds
Brandon Sproat, RHP Fla HS 7th/205 overall by Texas. $222,100 slot value, which wasn’t enough to buy Sproat out of his commitment to Florida. As we’ve already seen, Sproat and signability was also an issue in 2022, but he did eventually sign in 2023 for a ton of money.
Wyatt Hendrie, C from Calif Juco 10th/312 overall by Chicago Cubs. $142,200 slot value. Cubs seemingly ran into slot issues with both 10th and 11th rounder, and Hendrie wouldn’t take under slot. Hendrie went undrafted in 2020’s shortened draft, but then was picked in the 7th in 2021 and signed for $177,500 out of San Diego State.
Verdict: both players ended up making money by not signing; Sproat a ton, Hendrie a little bit.
Carter Stewart, RHP Fla HS. 1st/8th overall. Atlanta didn’t like Physical, offered 40% of slot value ($1.9M); initially slated to Mississippi State. Update: However, he did an about face, went to a Juco instead with the plan on re-entering the 2019 draft. When he struggled in Juco and fell to a mid 2nd round projection … he attempted an end-around of the MLB draft rules and signed to play in japan, a situation I detailed in this space. By 2021 he had graduated the Japan minor leagues into their majors, and his stats as of 2023 seem pretty solid (as a 23yr old he has a sub 2.00 ERA for his team Softbank).
Matt McLain: 2B Calif HS. 1st/25: Asked $3M, Arizona offered $2.6M didn’t budge, going to UCLA. Update: picked 17th overall in the 2021 draft and signed for $4.63M. Huge gamble and huge win.
JT Ginn: RHP Miss HS. 1st/30th: LA dodgers offered $2.4M, asking $2.9M, going to Mississippi State. Update: drafted 2nd round/52nd overall in 2020 draft, signed for $2.9M with the Mets in a well over-slot deal. So two years later he got his asking number.
Gunnar Hoglund: LHP Fla HS. 1supp/36: Pittsburgh didn’t like physical, low-balled and he declined. going to Ole Miss. 2021; was projected as a top 10 pick, hurt his arm, had TJ but still got drafted 19th overall by Toronto and signed for $3.25M. Big win.
McLean drastically improved his stock, Ginn got what he wanted, and Hoglund (despite his injury) got paid. I already detailed why I think Stewart’s deal is smart.
Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Oregon State, 1s/31st overall. Failed to sign with Tampa, who (I guess) didn’t like his medicals. He was coming back from TJ and only had a few weeks of action before the draft. Update: Went 6th round in 2018 to Milwaukee.
Jack Conlon, RHP, Clements HS (Sugar Land, Texas). 4th round/128 overall. Failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Texas A&M. Update: left TAMU, went to San Jacinto, then enrolled in Rice and sat out 2020. However, he wasn’t on the 2021 roster, and its unclear where he’s playing at this point. He seems to be out of baseball at this point.
Jo Jo Booker, RHP, Miller HS (Brewton, Ala.). 5th round/145 overall. failed to sign with LA Angels, went to South Alabama. Ended up playing 5 full seasons for South Alabama, was never drafted, posted an ERA north of 6.00 his 5th year, and is likely out of baseball.
Two players who ended up playing themselves out of any bonus dollars. Rasmussen didn’t turn down the Rays as much as they refused to tender him a contract … they must have tendered him something because they got a comp pick in 2018 draft. So he turned down 40% of first round money in 2017 to sign an under-slot deal in the 6th round of 2018 ($135k, just $10k more than the non-top 10 rounds minimum). I’d say this was a bad move by the player unless Tampa flat out refused to pay a dollar.
Verdict: 1 worsened his draft position, 2 missed out on any draft money.
Nick Lodolo: 1S/41st overall; LHP from Damien HS in California. failed to sign with Pittsburgh, went to TCU instead, draft eligible in 2019. In 2021, drafted 7th overall, signed for $5.43M.
Tyler Buffett: 7th/217 overall; RHP, failed to sign with Houston. returned to Oklahoma State, drafted in 6th round in 2017 and signed with Cincinnati
Lodolo went to school (an arm-shredder program in TCU even) and went from 41st overall to 7th overall, with probably 3x the bonus. Furthermore, by 2021 he was one of the best pitching prospects in the game. Meanwhile Buffett improved his draft position one round by going back to school.
Verdict: 1 drastically improved his draft pick and money, 1 improved his draft position one round.
2015: 6 guys did not sign.
Kyle Funkhouser: 1st/35th overall: RHP from Louisville, failed to sign with LA Dodgers, turning down an above-slot $2M. 4th rounder in 2016, signed with Detroit.
Brady Singer, 2nd/56th overall: RHP Florida HS. failed to sign with Toronto, went to Florida and was 1st rounder in 2018, signed with Kansas City
Jonathan Hughes, 2nd/68th overall: RHP Georgia HS. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Georgia Tech and not even drafted in 2018…
Kyle Cody, 2nd/73rd overall: RHP U Kentucky. failed to sign with Minnesota, drafted in 6th round in 2016 and signed with Texas
Nicholas Shumpert, 7th/220th overall. SS Colorado HS. failed to sign with Detroit. Went to San Jacinto CC, drafted in 28th round 2016 by Atlanta and signed.
Kep Brown, 10th/311 overall. RF South Carolina HS, failed to sign with LA Dodgers. went to Juco, then to UNC-Wilmington, not drafted in 2018.
Funkhouser was the biggest “whoops” here; a poor spring took him from his pre-season top 10 draft position all the way out of the first round, but he still demanded upper 1st round money. He didn’t get it … and then fell to the 4th round the next year. That was a big fail. Singer clearly improved on his 2nd round status by going to college. Cody slipped from being a 2nd rounder to a 6th rounder. The other three guys drastically fell on draft boards; one of them going from a 10th rounder to not even being drafted.
Verdict: 1 improved, 5 hurt draft stock
2014: 6 failed to sign
Brady Aiken: 1/1 overall, RHP from San Diego HS. failed to sign with Houston, went to IMG Academy in FL, drafted 1/17 by Cleveland
Andrew Suarez: 2nd/57 overall LHP from U-Miami, failed to sign with Washington. Drafted 2nd round/61st overall in 2015 by San Francisco
Trevor Megill; 3rd/104th overall RHP from Loyola Marymount. failed to sign with Boston, drafted 7th/207 in 2015 draft and signed with San Diego
Jacob Nix: 5th/136 RHP from Los Alomitos HS; couldn’t sign when Tampa lost bonus money, sued, FA, signed with San Diego
Zack Zehner: 7th/204 OF from Cal Poly, failed to sign with Toronto. Drafted 18th round 2015 and signed with NYY
Austin Byler, 9th/274 1B from nevada-Reno. failed to sign with Washington, drafted 11th round in 2015 and signed with Arizona
Aiken became quite the rarity; the first #1 overall baseball pick to fail to sign in 30 years. But his lack of signing cascaded and cost the Astros both their 5th rounder Nix and another player later on thanks to the new draft rules on bonus pools; Nix ended up being declared a FA in a face-saving move by MLB so as not to admit that their new bonus cap circumvention rules were BS. Aiken had no where to go but down from 1-1 so he obviously cost himself money. The others all fell, if only slightly in Suarez’s case.
Verdict: 1 didn’t count, 5 lowered draft stock
2013: 8 failed to sign
Phil Bickford: 1/10 RHP California HS. Toronto failed to sign. went to Southern Nevada juco, drafted 1/18 by SF and signed.
Matt Krook 1s/35 LHP calif HS. Miami failed to sign, went to Oregon State, drafted 4th round by SF in 2016
Ben DeLuzio 3rd/80 SS from Fla HS. Miami failed to sign. Went to Florida State, played 4 years … undrafted out of college, NDFA with Arizona
Ben Holmes, 5th /151 LHP Oregon State. Philly failed to sign. went 9th round in 2014
Jason Monda 6th/181 OF Washington State. Philly failed to sign … then accused him of NCAA violations. he wasn’t drafted again and quit to go to Med school
Stephen Woods 6th/188 RHP NY HS: Tampa failed to sign, went to Suny-Albany, drafted 8th round 2016 by SF and signed
Dustin DeMuth 8th/230 3B from Indiana, Minnesota failed to sign, became 5th rounder in 2014 and signed with Milwaukee
Ross Kivett 10th/291 2B from kansas State. Cleveland failed to sign, became 6th rounder in 2014 and signed with Detroit
Bickford fell 8 slots year over year but still fell. DeMuth and Kivett both improved their stock. The rest fell, drastically in some cases.
Verdict: 2 improved, 6 fell
2012: 8 failed to sign
Mark Appel 1/8 RHP Stanford by Pittsburgh. failed to sign, was 1/1 in 2013 with Houston
Teddy Stankiewicz 2/75 RHP from Texas Hs. failed to sign with Mets, went Juco, 2/45 in 2013 by Boston
Alec Rash, 2/95 by Philadelphia from IA HS. went to Missouri, 2015 drafted in 23rd round by Washington but still didn’t sign; quit baseball and started playing NCAA basketball
Kyle Twomey, 3/106 LHP Calif HS Oakland. Drafted 13th round 3 yrs later out of USC by Chicago Cubs.
Brandon Thomas 4/136 OF from Ga Tech; didn’t sign with Pittsburgh, drafted 8th round one year later and signed with NYY
Colin Poche 5/162 LHP texas h s. failed to sign with Baltimore, went to Dallas Baptist, undrafted Jr year, drafted 14th round 2016 by Arizona
Nick Halamandaris 8/251 1B Calif HS. failed to sign with Seattle, played 4 years at cal, undrafted jr and Sr year, NDFA with Seattle, played one season
L.J. Mazzilli 9/280 2B from UConn. 4th rounder in 2013 signed with NY Mets
Appel managed to improve from 8th overall to 1st overall. Stankiewicz also improved his stock about a round’s worth. Mazzilli improved from a 9th rounder to a 4th rounder. The others all fell.
Verdict: 3 up, 5 down.
Summary: of the 50 players who failed to sign, passing judgement even on the players where its far too early to really tell:
30 hurt their draft stock by failing to sign (15 HS, 15 coll)
1 didn’t really count b/c of the Houston 2014 draft bonus shenanigans (Jacob Nix, HS)
15 improved their draft stock/money
4 from 2024 too early yet to tell.
So, 2 out of every 3 times a kid turns down the money they’re costing themselves in the long run. But, its also worth noting that a huge percentage of these players who declined to sign were at the very beginning of the new rules … in the last few years, the success rate of players has gone way up. I attribute it to players now understanding better the rules of the system.
Jarlin Susana gets a well-deserved bump up in teh rankings. Photo Washington Post
The boys at MLBPipeline (Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo, et al) have done a mid-season reshuffling of all 30 teams’ prospect lists, and the Nats system looks demonstrably different in the wake of the draft, trades, and over/under performance of some players.
This is a discussion of where the system stands as per one of the leading pundits in the game.
Below is the current top 30 (also online at this link, which is dynamic and shows the current status of the list at all times). I’ve added a new column that looks at the last few MLBpipeline top 30 releases, going back to the Mar 2024 initial list, to show the general range of where players have been the entire time as a comparison to where they are now.
Here’s some thoughts on the current top 30 on this list, how they’ve risen/fallen, plus all the names who have appeared in MLBPipeline’s top 30 lists this year who are now pushed out, and then at the bottom a list of all the graduations. All stats listed are as of my looking them up and writing them here on 8/14/24.
With Wood’s graduation, Dylan Crews ascends to #1. He’s got an .814 OPS figure in AAA this year, which sounds good … but when you compare his 2024 to what his fellow top 5 college draftees are doing (Skenes; started ASG. Langford, destroyed minor league pitching and started the season in the majors) he almost seems like a disappointment right now. I think its slightly telling that the team has now called up four different hitters (Blankenhorn, Call, Tena, Chapparo) instead of Crews in the wake of trades and releases.
House Remains #2. He finally got pushed to AAA, where he’s got a sub-300 OBP figure. But, it’s also telling to remember he’s 21. If he had gone to college, he’d have just been drafted a month ago and would be sitting in XST.
Sykora and Susana now 3/4 in the system. And as they should be, based on their complete dominance this season. Sykora should have been promoted already with the numbers and accolades he’s got in the last month. Sykora even made his way onto the MLBpipeline top 100 for all the minors. Meanwhile, Susana is now #61 on ESPN/Kiley McDaniels top 100 for the entire minors. That’s pretty impressive.
Our big-3 round 2024 draftees (King, Dickerson, Lomavita) come in at #5, #7, and #10. Only a handful of our 2024 draftees have even made it out of XST (the above three plus Bazzell), and only King & Lomavita have been assigned to a real team for their pro debuts as of this writing.
Clemmey comes in at #6. Is this a little high? Perhaps. But it is telling that in his first pro season he went straight into the low-A rotation and has been there the entire time, with massive K/9 numbers and decent BAA, even if his ERA and WHIP show a lot of room for improvement.
Cavalli has slipped, from a consensus top 3 to now #8 on this list. I don’t blame them; A 12-month recovery has now been delayed by “dead arm” and “the flu” and perhaps next week we’ll hear that he has the bubonic plague and then maybe after that a mysterious soft tissue injury.
Morales is also slipping, though he was injured for a big chunk of this season. He’ll need another year at AA just to get his value back. Meanwhile, he’s being passed on the pecking order for 1B/DH types (since he’ll be completely blocked by House at 3B), and will need to bash his way up over the likes of Yepez, Chapparo, Meneses, Blankenhorn, and whichever veteran FA/Joey Gallo v2.0 we sign this off-season
Cayden Wallace at #11 just got dumped to the 60-day DL; per some googling, he has an Oblique Strain and has been out since first week of May. Does that sound like a long time for that injury? We’re at 3 months.
Lile, Hassell, and Hurtado are all treading water, being lower on the list than they were earlier but all due to initial placements above them pushing them down. Nothing to report here for now. These guys aren’t impressing or overly disappointing for now.
Angel Feliz has gotten bumped up decently, from the 20-24 range to #16 here. The 17yr old SS made the DSL all-star team and is slashing .308/.385/.449 this year. Wow, when was the last time we had a solid hitter matriculate out of the DSL? Luis Garcia? Juan Soto? It’s early, but after the sh*t show that was the 2023 IFA class, its refreshing to at least have a couple guys who look like they’ll move on. By the way, as far as I can tell the best hitter out of the 23IFA class right now is looking like Carlos Tavarez, a 1B/OF who had a .869 OPS figure in the FCL this year. Not one other 23IFA who even made it to the mainland had an OPS figure much above .600 (Marcano, Soto, Acevedo, Batista, Maricuto, and Arias).
Andry Lara now sits in the #17 spot, having moved up from the 27-30 range. Um; ok. He’s 21 and in AA, where he’s been for most of the year after dominating the first month of High-A. If he was playing by American rules he’d be sitting in XST right now. For me he’s a lot better prospect than #17. I think this is a top 10 prospect.
Green: significantly dropped to #21 from the 6-8 range, and before that even higher. We’ve debated Green for a while in this space. His stat line is comical this year: .198 BA and a ridiculous 171 Ks in 88 games. He’s repeating low-A. I agree with Keith Law’s take on Green, where he called out Green by name as a golden example of a player who NEEDED the former Short-A league that’s now gone. Instead he’s jumped straight to low-A and has had to stick there. I hope he can rebound, I really do, but his prospect rank is where it deserves to be for now.
Brzycky, Grissom, Ribalta: I just don’t see why RHP relievers are ranked as prospects. They come in at 22, 26, 30 on these rankings. They’re fungible, replaceable assets who generally are good one year (Rainey in 2020 and 2022, Weems in 2023) then awful the next (Rainey in 2021 and 2024, Weems in 2022 and then again in 2024). Ribalta just got called up; i wouldn’t be surprised if he had a 2.00 ERA this year and a 6.00 era next or vice versa. It’s like ranking backup middle infielders or 4th outfielders.
Pinckney has taken a fall in the rankings; his swing looked long and slow in spring training and it hasn’t really improved. 119 Ks in 108 games for just 6 homers isn’t going to cut it. I know a lot of readers here were super high on him coming out of Alabama, but he may have plateaued already. He may get pushed up to AAA at some point, but where does he fit in?
Lord coming in at #30. Not sure what else you want the guy to do; he’s the same draft as Tyler Stuart who is ranked 10 spots higher but is a level below him. If Lord was a 2nd rounder he’d be in the top 100 right now. He’s now been in the AAA rotation for nearly 2 months (8 starts) and he’s still holding a 3.27 ERA there.
Guys who were in the top 30 but who are now pushed out:
Brenner Cox: He’s getting a long run as a starter in low-A w/o the batting average to sustain it.
Armando Cruz: ranked solely b/c of his signing bonus for a while, he just got an undeserved promotion to High-A so that Seaver King could start in Fredericksburg.
TJ White remains in the 19-20 range for other pundits but is now outside top 30 for MLBpipeline. Not sure why some pundits still rate him; he’s hitting .202 as he repeats high-A.
Dustin Saenz: Seemed like a possible sneaky starter prospect like a Parker or Lord, but got hurt and has struggled in his return from the DL in AA.
Darren Baker: has played a solid season in AAA but has not gotten an opportunity since neither Vargas or Nunez has gotten hurt. Has been playing a ton of LF to give him some positional flexibility, but he remains a power-less slap hitter at a time when you need to have some power no matter where you play.
Cole Henry: what are we going to do with this guy? He was our #3 prospect for a while post draft, but just can’t seem to stay healthy.
Jeremy De La Rosa: was hopefully the last example of a ridiculous 40-man addition that this team will make, putting a guy on the roster who was in low-A and had zero chance of getting picked. He was dfa’d out outrighted in November 2023, which means we can’t ever outright him again. He played well to start the season in low-A, earned a promotion but hasn’t hit since. He got promoted to AA in July to fill the gaps left when Crews got bumped up and Hassell got hurt, but he didn’t deserve it. He’s continued to hit sub .200 since and probably should be back in A-Ball.
Anyone else worth mentioning?
Andrew Alvarez: i’m not sure they’ve ever ranked him, but he’s in the AAA rotation and faces an interesting Rule-5 dilemma this off-season.
Acevedo and Solano, our two $1.3M 2023IFA signings: nowhere to be seen.
Rodney Theophile and Michael Cuevas: youngsters in the AA rotation mix; I wonder if they can get some prospect love soon.
How about Jose Atencio, 22yr old doing well in High-A rotation?
Graduations from Mar 2024:
Trey Lipscomb: 29-32 range; has struggled in the majors, which fits given his prospect status. An infielder in the 20s would have a ceiling as a backup, and that seems to be where he is right now.
Jacob Young: 17-18 range: As is often discussed, he’s drastically outperforming his prospect ranking, and sits 2nd on the 2024 team in bWAR behind Abrams. It’s almost entirely on the strength of his defense though since he has an 85 OPS+ figure.
James Wood: 1-2 range: has not disappointed in his MLB debut; 134 OPS+ as of this writing.
Mitchell Parker: 20-22 range: has drastically outperformed his prospect status since arriving in the majors, which is being attributed to the Nats pitching staff. But he’s been out-performing his reputation his entire pro career.
DJ Herz: 12-14 range: He’s performing as I would have expected Parker to do, based on prospect reputation … 4.41 ERA, 91 ERA+. He probably needs more AAA time.
Note: I agree with those shops that stick by 50ip/150ABs versus service time for Rookie status, but the following three guys are “graduated” per service time.
Drew Millas: 18-20 range (graduated by service time not by ABs): hitting well enough in AAA but didn’t hit at all when he spelled Riley Adams on the MLB roster. He’ll be #3 on our 3-catcher depth chart for the forseeable future.
Nasim Nunez: 19-20 range (graduated by service time not by ABs). I’m amazed he’s lasted this long based on his utter lack of any performance, and he’s done little to make me think he’s really even a prospect honestly. He’ll go to AAA and sit there for 3 years as a spare-part infielder.
Israel Pineda: 26-28 range (graduated by service time not by ABs). He’s much younger than Millas, but where has his bat gone? He hit .280 in 2022 in a AA call-up, but is now hitting .157 there two years on.
Lots of questions about Abrams this week Photo via dcsportskings.com
I have not done this in a while. I used to do this near weekly post series when former Nats beat writer Bill Ladsen would answer fan questions. Now he’s moved on and we rarely get any of the known beat writers addressing any fan questions … except for long-time beat man Mark Zuckerman. Zuckerman periodically does a q&a session in the form of comments on a post. Fans post questions and Zuckerman answers them.
So for fun I thought i’d try it. Here’s some of the main questions asked and how I’d answer them. I’ll go from the bottom up. I post the “question” (sometimes editing for clarity), put my response, then put Zuckerman’s response summarized.
Q: Who would you expect the Nationals to add to the roster and who would you like to see them add yourself?
A: If they’re just doing existing 40-man players, the two most obvious players to add would probably be a starter (Rutledge) and an outfielder (recall Meneses). The starter would help manage innings limits for the young guys, and the OF can cover for the guys we traded (Winker, Thomas). If they’re going to add new players to the 40-man roster to do roster expansion on 9/1, then the obvious choice is likely to add Crews at that point and maybe reward Lord? Maybe not; still seems too early for Lord. Zuckerman kind of hedged, saying maybe Crews, maybe Tena/Chapparo, maybe Rutledge, maybe Williams/Cavalli coming off the DL.
Q: Wood has more than held his own at the plate but his defense in LF has been suspect so far. How long until he’s moved to his more comfortable spot in RF? I vision him eventually manning 1st base. Sooner, rather than later.
A: Um. LF is far, far easier to play than RF. If he can’t handle LF, he’s going to be a massive liability in RF. Its small sample size, but indeed his defense so far across the board is bad: DRS of -4 (that’s 4 runs cost in 274 innings, which projects to -20 DRS for a full season) and a UZR/150 of -26. Those are both really, really bad. Luckily, he’s 6’10” and would make a perfect 1B. My guess is this: once we have enough top-quality OFs in the majors, Wood makes way. Who will that be? Who knows: we still have a pipeline of OFs in the minors who could force their way into the conversation: Hassell, Lile, Pinckney, and Stone Garrett are all relatively close, while guys like Vaquero, Green, Cox, and 2024 draftees are further away. Zuckerman asked Martinez if Wood would move to RF once Thomas got traded and he said no … intimating that the Nats believe Crews will take RF upon promotion and the OF will be Woods-Young-Crews for the forsee-able future.
Q: Should they just DFA Corbin at this point? He seems to be getting worse as the year goes on. Trevor Williams could hold that spot for the remainder of the season
A: Nope. As discussed in the July rotation review post, thanks to the injury issues our three possible replacements face (Grey, Cavalli, Williams), the high likelihood is that Corbin stays through the end of the season. Now we’re close enough to 9/30 that our young pitchers like Parker and Herz (and even Gore to some respect) will need to skip starts to keep IP low. Even if Cavalli or Williams magically re-appeared, you’d still keep Corbin in the pen to provide this service until his $35M salary is exhausted. Zuckerman basically agrees, noting that neither Williams or Cavalli are both just basically playing catch right now, let alone building up strength, let alone doing rehab starts.
Q: Which of the minor leaguers we received at the trade deadline are likely to be called up for a cup of coffee? At least 2 (Tena and Chaparro) appear to be MLB ready.
A: The easy answer is Tena, who’s on the 40-man. The moment we have an infield injury he’s on the bus to DC. Fun fact: we’re in mid-August and Nunez has 15 total at-bats! Wow. Chapparo seems like a 2025 NRI to compete for the Meneses job: 1B/DH mostly. He projects to be a stumpy slugger with little defensive value, not exactly something the team values, and I can’t see him getting added to the 40-man to get called up over Meneses and Garrett. Zuckerman says Tena, and maybe sooner than later since Lipscomb continues to struggle playing every day.
Q: (Paraphrased) Kiebert Ruiz had a few decent moments but generally is struggling and batting cleanup, and is signed long term. How do you see this playing out?
A: I’m going to chalk it up to just a bad season. His career MLB numbers prior to this were just fine and justified the long term contrac.t The OP asks about why he’s batting cleanup … turns out his splits at cleanup are a lot better than at 6-hole where he batted most of the year. His OPS of .710 batting clean-up would give him an OPS+ figure above 100. I’m not worried about Ruiz. Zuckerman is more harsh, calling Ruiz the biggest disappointment of the season, plus he was critical of Ruiz’ defense. Hmm.
Q: Did Matt Cronin do something to get deep in the dog house?
A: Note: Cronin was finally promoted to AA after sitting in High-A for probably two months too long. I questioned the same in my last two monthly check-ins, and have no answer other than to guess that, as a guy who passed through waivers/DFA to get outrighted, the team doesn’t consider him a prospect anymore and he’s now in “org arm” territory, which means he gets moved around the system as needed to eat up reliever innings until that point where he hits 6year MLFA or gets cut. Zuckerman noted he did have back surgery last year and perhaps the team wanted to ease him back, but otherwise has no idea why he’s been stuck in A ball for so long.
Q: Why is it taking so long to get Williams back on the mound in games?
A: Because he had a serious injury. A Flexor issue is a 2-3 month injury at best case, and worst case leads to TJ surgery. He went on the DL June 4th. We’re now August 7th, so that’s 2 months and he’s reportedly not yet doing mound work. Per the injury update, the team is hoping to have him “throw a few innings” in September. Zuckerman says the same.
Q: What is wrong with CJ’s batting? He seems to be swinging at bad pitches.
A: Everything in Abram’s aggregate stats in 2024 is an improvement over last year. Line Drive % up, hard contact % up, Ground ball and weaker contact down. He is in the 10th percentile of all MLB hitters in Chase rate … but his swing/take numbers are drastically improved over the past two years. I’ll take a couple of chase pitches for a guy who has really improved on balls over the plate. Zuckerman notes he’s in a slump right now and this is what he does when he slumps.
Q: Your early thoughts who Rizzo may target FAs in the off-season (or make any surprising trades like Gonzalez or Eaton) for DH/1B/SP/backup C for 2025? Who would YOU like to see as a veteran (ala Werth) signing to lead the young players?
A: I’m beginning to think that Rizzo may give it another year to allow the younger players to matriculate up before making a massive deal. I don’t think this is a 2011 heading into 2012 deal, where he thinks a major signing will be the catalyst to go to a 90-win team. I also think the team is pretty well set at a lot of the positions.
OF is set with Wood-Young-Crews once Crews shows up
3B/SS/2B will be set with top prospects House-Abrams-Garcia.
C is set with long-term signee Ruiz. Why bother signing a backup veteran C if you have healthy Adams and Millas?
So the only thing i could see on the FA market would be yet another 1B/DH veteran type like Gallo to try to catch lightning in a bottle.
Starters: Gore, Parker, Herz, Irvin all young and healthy right now. You expect Cavalli back for 2025. Williams is a FA and might take a deal to return. We don’t have a ton of depth past that, so maybe another FA starter … but who does that starter replace? Herz? You’re not getting a starter to replace Gore or Cavalli, and Parker/Irvin have earned their spots. So, there doesn’t seem to be a huge need for a starter.
Relievers; definitely need some FA help. As of this writing, I’d dump half my relievers. So, look for a ton of 1yr and MLFA deals in the off-season.
Zuckerman says, power hitting 1B, maybe a SP, and relievers.
Q: The “500 Clubs” questions. 1) Do you think the next 500 foot home run will be by one of the famous sluggers or someone people don’t expect to hit one that long?; 2) Which players have the best chance of reaching 500 career home runs based on current totals, age, injury history and other reasons?
A: The next 500-foot homer will be from one of the known sluggers (Ohtani, Stanton, Judge), because they’re the ones who are playing regularly and getting frequent looks. The longest so far this year is 480 from someone unexpected, but last year 493 from Ohtani and the last 500 footer was in 2022 in (surprise) Colorado from CJ Cron.
Best chances to get to 500 homers? Taking a quick peek at active HR leaders …
I think Stanton can get another 80 despite injury issues
Trout should be a shoe-in sitting at 378 with probably another 7-8 seasons to go.
Harper and Machado are both 31 and sitting at 330; both are signed long term for the same team and should be able to average 20 a year for 8 years to get there.
Judge sitting at 298 at age 32 is an interesting question mark: he’s so prolific but so injury prone.
Alonso and Ohtani are both 29 and sitting in the 205-215 range; that’s a ways to go but doable.
Soto is only 25 and already has 188. He could hit 200 before the end of the season. The better question for Soto might be can he hit 600, or 650.
Zuckerman wasn’t aware of stat cast tracking, but listed the same guys I did.
Q: Do you have any insight or theories as to why the return for Flora was so light (a minor league free agent) relative to other mid reliever trades?
A: Probably reputation, role, and contract status. Honestly, in hindsight the return for Hunter was amazing. What a fleece job (Cayden Wallace and a supp-1st draft pick). Zuckerman says it’s because Floro was a 2month rental and a FA at the end of 2024, so there was limits as to what you’d get.
Q: Why has the radio feed been eliminated in the concourse?
A: No idea. There’s no good reason to turn that off. Zuckerman has no idea either
Q: Who’s next to be brought up, Millas, Ribalta etc.? Got a guesstimate?
A: I’m sure we’ll see random call-ups for double headers and other minor injuries between now and 9/1. Willingham and Millas seem to be the two most likely. Zuckerman says he hopes its Crews.
(From here down Zuckerman called it a day, so no alternate answers)
Q: Do you think Joey Gallo will return to nats line up after he gets off IR?
A: Yes I do think he’ll return and will be given a chance to showcase himself for the off-season. Seems like veteran privilege. I don’t think he’ll hit though and may get DFA’d so the team can continue to start prospects to audition for 2025.
Q: What is Jake Noll up to these days?
Hit MLFA in November 2023 and never signed another affiliated deal. He wasn’t in winterball and he’s not with any indy or foreign league in 2024. I can’t find any hint as to what he’s done since: nothing on his twitter or wikipedia page. So, who knows?
Q: Who is one player you wish that has gotten more opportunity with Nats but it was not meant to be?
A: I wonder why we couldn’t get the performance out of Fedde that he found in Korea.
Q: Outfield of the future for Nats? Young needs to hit for more power to be part of it or? Do you still be believe in Hassel?
A: I believe its Wood-Young-Crews for the time being until Hassell or Lile makes a case. But, neither are really making that case right now.
Q: Do you think Abrams is good enough as SS or better as 2B?
A: Defensively? He’s not half bad: for 2024 he’s at 1.1 UZR/150 and a 4 DRS for the season. I’ll take that for a SS generating his offense, as would nearly every other team in the league. There’s no reason to move him to 2B unless we found a SS who was just significantly better and provided passable offense. our SS depth right now doesn’t really show that coming: Tena/Cluff in AAA, Made in AA, Pena in High-A (who will lose that job as soon as King is ready to go), Cruz in low-A? Maybe Dickerson next spring in FCL? Nobody is close.
Q: How much of the offensive struggles can and should be placed on the hitting coach and manager?
A: Some, I suppose? But if a hitter just isn’t talented, what can a hitting coach do? You can only get results up to a point. We’ve seen our pitchers drastically improve and are attributing it to Sean Doolittle, perhaps we should expect more from our hitting coach.
Q: If the Nats win the draft lottery in 2023, do they draft Paul Skenes instead of Dylan Crews, and would Lane Thomas still be a Nat?
A: 100% we would have picked Skenes. Thomas still would have been traded b/c he fetched value and we still have other OFs in the system.
Phew. that was fun. Disagree with my or Zuckerman’s answers?
Could Lord be the next guy promoted to the majors?? Photo via threads.com IG
Here’s the End of July 2024 check-ins on all our rotations, from MLB to FCL.
Each team section analysis will have the same items: current rotation, changes in the last month, observations, next guy to get promoted (if its in the minors), next guy to get cut, and then a few comments about relievers.
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Irvin, Gore, Parker, Corbin, Herz
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Irvin, Gore, Parker, Corbin, Herz
Changes sinceend of last Month: None. Same five guys, for better or worse.
We did however get some distressing news on the two guys we thought we’d have back by now, Grey and Cavalli. Grey was yanked after a dip in velocity in a rehab start, given another MRI and he’s got a UCL issue. He thought maybe it was just a brace insertion, but on July 25th he got Tommy John surgery. The timing of the injury is bad; he’ll miss the rest of 2024 and probably is no guarantee to even see 2025 on the field. Meanwhile, Cavalli got the flu, which started him back to ground zero in terms of his rehab, then he suffered a “dead arm” after coming back, and we havn’t seen him in weeks. Um, its now August 2024, he had the surgery in March of 2023. So we’re now at 16 months post surgery and counting. So much for a 12-month recovery period. Lastly, we’ve heard jack and sh*t about Williams, our most valuable 2024 trade piece lit on fire after his flexor issue. The last update I’ve seen as July 19th “light throwing” activities. Great, so he’ll be ready for October.
Rotation Observations: So, as for the guys we DO have in the rotation: Irvin took a step back in June, going 2-2 with a 4.75 ERA. Corbin blew up after a couple of acceptable months, pitching to a 7.27 ERA last month. Gore had an uncharacteristically awful July, walking 16 in 26 innings and going 0-2 with a 7.62 ERA. Not good. Parker? Same story: he went from a 3.15 ERA last month to a 7.89 ERA this month. Lastly we have the new guy Herz, who improved a ton from June and threw 5 starts at a 4.04 ERA with a 26/5 K/BB ratio last month. Interesting.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: So, Yes I know Corbin is awful, but this team seems hell bent on having him soak up innings until his $35M/year contract is over. If someone was healthy tomorrow, I think Herz may still make way, but on the other hand his promising July tells me he’s improving and should be given more time. However, none of our 3 injured starters is seemingly coming back any time soon, and as we’ll see in the next section, nobody from AAA is pushing for a promotion right now.
Bullpen comments: Two of our best relievers were moved in Harvey and Floro. We wish we could have moved Finnegan, but an ill-timed blow-up inning likely scared off the suiters (Baltimore? Philadelphia?) and cost us some more prospects (at least he’s still under Arb control for another year). In the place of the departed guys, the team added wavier claim Salazar and brought up newly converted reliever Adon. Get ready for some reliever blowups the rest of the way: Rainey has an ERA in the 6s, Ferrer in the 7s, and the whole middle relief corps (JBarnes, Garcia, Adon, Salazar) are middling 4.00 something ERA guys who are all the definition of a replacement level arm.
AAA Rochester
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Rutledge, Ward, Lord, Alvarez, Luckham
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Rutledge, Watkins, Ward, Lord, Alvarez
Changes since end of last month: Watkins made 3 starts then hit the DL, replaced by AA-call up Luckham, who joins Lord and Alvarez as 3/5ths of the AAA rotation promoted up in the last couple of months.
Rotation Observations: We’ll go in order of seniority. Rutledge was awful in July, has been awful all season, and it seems to me the scouting reports on the guy are holding true; he’s a 2pitch guy who needs to be moved to relief. Ward made 4 starts to a 4.04 ERA (which … normally you’d say, oh that’s not so bad), but he only threw 17.2 innings in those four starts and he managed to walk 17 in those 17.2 innings. This team wasted a roster spot on him all year last season to see what they’ve got: I’ll tell you what you’ve got: a 27yr old guy who may have been a promising starter once, but i’m not sure what you have now. Alvarez’s foray into AAA has not been good: 13ip, only 7 punch-outs and he’s very hittable (.351 BAA). The 2023 Nats minor league pitcher of the year who appears on almost zero prospect lists may be exhibiting why: its likely AA was the limit of his competence. Luckham’s first two AAA starts have been blow-outs: he doesn’t seem ready. Which leaves us with Lord: the 18th rounder who’s now a 24yr old in AAA holding his own. He threw 5 starts, 3.86 ERA, solid K/BB numbers, looks like he belongs. Amazing. He was the 531st player drafted in 2022, a college reliever out of a middling baseball school.
Next guy to get Promoted: Amazingly, its Lord on merit. No, i don’t think they’re in a hurry to promote him, but he’s most deserving. Certainly our 40-man starters aren’t.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: I think Luckham is overmatched right now and goes back down when an opportunity presents or when Watkins comes back from DL. Alvarez is also on short leash. If it were me i’d look at both Rutledge and Ward in the bullpen, but no reason to do that now unless a slew of AA starters make noise to move up.
Bullpen comments: Salazar already got called up; he didn’t give up a run in AAA after his acquisition. La Sorsa continues to pitch well in Rochester and looks like he deserves a promotion; he’s on the 40-man (post-publish correction; he was outrighted last Dec) so maybe if the Nats get tired of Rainey sucking they’ll give him another shot. Rico Garcia is a 30yr old closer in AAA who we got as a MLFA from Oakland; he was solid in July and may merit a 9/1 callup to see if he’s worth extending.
AA Harrisburg
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Cuevas, Solesky, Lara, Theophile, Stuart (with two spot starts from Reyes)
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Luckham, Cuevas, Solesky, Lara, Theophile (plus a couple Grey rehab starts and one Reyes spot-start)
Changes since end of last month:Luckham promoted, replaced in the rotation by Reyes spot starts until we acquired Stuart in trade for Winker.
Rotation Observations: New acquisition Stuart got the 7/31 start; gave up 3 runs in 5 innings for his new team and reportedly sat 97. Ok, that sounds good. Solesky continues to keep the ERA down but have crummy peripherals (11 Ks in 26 ip) and i’m beginning to suspect the team doesn’t really plan on doing much with him. Lara: 4 starts, 2.63 ERA but interestingly just 10 Ks in 24ip. Great that Lara (just 21) is more than holding his own in AA but where’d his strikeouts go? The ERA seems like a mirage, since his BAA is in the upper .280s Theophile looks decent: 4 starts, 3.18 ERA, but i’d like to see him go deeper in games (just 17 IP in those 4 starts). Lastly we have Cuevas, who had a 6.75 ERA in July, which is about in line with his season ERA. His peripherals showed he was probably a little unlucky this month, so the team will continue to run with him.
From the DL; we saw some rehab starts from Saenz this month; if he comes back someone likely makes way. No idea what is going on with Henry. Lucas Knowles got put on the full-season DL which usually means “major arm injury.”
Next guy to get Promoted: Dare I say Lara? They’d never push a 21yr old to AAA, not given that the big club is 12 games under .500 and tanking fast. Solesky continues to be too old for AA and in need of a challenge, but I wonder if the team thinks he could survive in AAA given his lack of K rate.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Continues to be Cuevas. But they’ve stuck with him all this time with an ERA in the 6s so I can’t see them making a rotation change here.
Bullpen comments: Grissom was promoted earlier this season and he’s pushing for another one; he had 8 appearances and gave up just 5 hits and zero runs in July. Brzycky is back and continues to be a K machine: 13 in 9 innings since returning from a long DL stint. Remember, he’s on the 40-man so the team likely bumps him up to AAA soon.
High-A Wilmington
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Atencio, Cornelio, Shuman, Davis, Susana
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Atencio, Caceres, Young, Cornelio, Shuman (plus a couple rehab starts from Cavalli and Brzycky)
Changes since end of last month: Caceres, Young bumped out of rotation, replaced by the promotions for Davis and Susana.
Rotation Observations: Shuman continued to confound this observer as to why he’s still in High-A: he’s 26, has little trouble getting these guys out, and should be in AA. 2.40 ERA for the month to go with his CAREER 3.21 ERA in the minors. Atencio was solid this month: 1.82 ERA even if his peripherals made that figure probably a little lucky. Caceres and Young both had ERAs in the 6s, earning their fates to be dropped out of the rotation and into dreaded LR/SS territory, but this was a long time coming for Caceres in particular. Susana was fantastic in his High-A debut; 3 starts, sub 1.00 whip, 2.40 ERA. Can’t ask for more than that out of the 20 year old. Newly promoted Davis only got one start. Lastly we come to Cornelio, who had an ERA in the 7s for the month, a 5.76 ERA for the season, and a 5.21 ERA for his career. I’m beginning to wonder what the team sees here. He had similarly mediocre numbers all last year, but got promoted anyways, and now continues to post crummy numbers the next level up. He was a 7th rounder with a decent bonus but nothing massive, but the team gives him chances like he’s a 7-figure guy. Weird.
Next guy to get Promoted: Shuman. He’s 26, should be in AA at least, and has a career minor league ERA in the mid 3s. (I did not change a word of this from last month’s post).
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Caceres; 24, almost no IFA bonus, can’t get guys out in Low-A, a 2017 signee who’s near the end of his tenure here. He may make way if someone needs a promotion from Fredericksburg. After that, Cornelio.
Bullpen comments: Here’s Cronin’s line for the month: 8 2/3rds innings, 3 hits, 0 walks 1 run allowed and 13 strikeouts. As a 26yr old former 40-man member. What the f*ck is he still doing in High-A?? I wrote nearly this exact same thing last month too. Past Cronin, there’s a slew of relievers who are unhittable in Wilmington right now: Miguel Gomez 13/1 K/BB ratio last month, Richard Gausch had a 0.88 whip last month, Chance Huff had a 0.84 ERA. So lots of options to move up if the need arises.
Low-A/Fredericksburg
Rotation as of 7/31/24: Sthele, Polanco, Tepper, Romero, Sykora ( plus a slew of spot starts from random players and two Saenz rehab starts)
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Sykora, Susana, Davis, Sthele, Polanco (plus 4 Shuman rehab starts and 1 Grey start)
Changes since end of last month: Susana and Davis promoted, replaced by Tepper and Romero (who started the year in low-A but was demoted early and has been in FCL most of season). Diaz had a couple of spot starts and was released.
Rotation Observations: Davis and Susana were (finally) promoted after both showing they had nothing left to prove in low-A. Sthele is now doing the same, giving up just 2 ER in 21 July innings. Sykora’s month might be even more impressive: in 4 starts he struck out 31 guys in 17 innings and had a .136 BAA. Finally, a high-round prep draftee who’s performing. Tepper only has one start so SSS, and Romero just got promoted and didn’t pitch in July. Polanco has struggled and may be the one who makes way for newly acquired Alex Clemmey, though they could also go to a 6-man rotation and keep giving the likes of Tepper and Romero starts.
Next guy to get Promoted: Is it Sykora? I’m not sure what else he needs to do to show he can get low-A hitters out, and they just promoted Susana who is of similar age and had similar low-A numbers. Why not? Push him up for the last month of the season.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Sthele has bought himself some time with a solid July but has generally struggled this season. As noted above, I think Polanco makes way for Clemmey in the short term. Polanco was an IFA signing in 2021 with such a small bonus figure that it wasn’t reported, meaning that the team has almost nothing “invested” in him, and often these kinds of data points come into play with these decisions.
Bullpen comments: Matthew Bollenbacher’s month stood out to me: 16 Ks/ 0 walks in 10 innings. So did Merrick Baldo, 14/3 K/BB in 8ip and zero runs allowed.
Rookie/FCL Nationals
Rotation as of 7/25/24 (end of FCL Season): Colon, Portorreal, CSanchez, BRomero, and Saenz rehab
Rotation as of 6/30/24: Colon, Portorreal, Camilio Sanchez, Brayan Romero, and rehabbers
Changes since end of last month: None really. The FCL rotation was basically the same all year.
Rotation Observations: Romero crushed it in July; 20/2 K/BB in 14ip, which is why they promoted him to Low-A the moment the FCL season ended. Colon and Portorreal also had nice ending months, each with an ERA in the 1s. Sanchez struggled a bit, probably costing himself a shot at a promotion this season. Interestingly Aldo Ramirez, coming back from a long-injury, is now technically assigned to FCL and had an era in the 10s for July, which included one spot start. I’m afraid he just hasn’t come back from injury and may be a lost cause.
Next guy to get Promoted: Romero already promoted.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Nobody pitched egregiously bad to get cut here.
Bullpen comments: The best relievers from the month was Angel Roman, and he was already promoted to Low-A.
Rookie/DSL Nationals
Rotation as of 7/31/24: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Feliz, Thomas, with Juan Reyes as an “opener.”
Rotation as of 6/30/24: De la Cruz, Reynoso, Vera, Thomas, Feliz (with Hernandez getting a couple spot starts)
Rotation Observations: MILB’s dsl nats stats page can’t do splits, and i’m probably already at 3000 words, so we’ll use full season stats to discuss. The DSL rotation has been relatively stable all year, with just 7 guys getting all the starts. And we’re seeing some widly crazy stat lines. The Ace continues to be Feliz, who has a 48/10 k/BB and a sub 3 era for the season. Jhoan Thomas has 24 ks and 24 walks in 26IP yet somehow has a sub 4 era. Now for the funny lines: Vera has 35 walks and 17Ks in 19ip. Yeah, that’s a little wild. De La Cruz Reynoso all have middling ERAs in he 6s with bad peripherals. Not much else to write home about with the 2024 DSL rotation. Hernandez seems to have been removed from the rotation with this 26 walks in 13ip, and Reyes has 5 starts but only 6IP so he’s being used as an opener of sorts.
Next guy to get Promoted: Feliz.
Next guy to get cut/demoted: Vera. Just can’t walk 2 guys an inning.
