Nationals Arm Race

Gorzelanny, our #5 pitcher, is starting to look like our #1. Photo Ed Wolfstein

After a surprising 3-1 series at home against San Francisco, and after a fantastic run through the rotation, the team hits the road for 3 straight divisional series away and a set of games that could easily define their season.  How did our pitchers fare?  Not terribly well.  A sweep in Philadelphia gave the team a worst-case start to this critical road trip, but they then took two of the first three in Florida (surprisingly; they’ve been awful in Miami for years).

Here’s how our pitchers looked this go-around:

Good

• Jordan Zimmermann may not have gotten the win for his 5/6 outing (box/gamer) but he pitched pretty well.  6ip, 2 runs for a “real” quality start.  Zimmermann’s k/9 rate is way way down from his performances in the past; he’s only got 24 in 41 innings.  By way of comparison in 2010 he had 27 in 31 on the comeback trail, and in 2009 he had 92 in 91 innings.  Unless he’s purposely pitching to contact this drastic reduction in Ks/9 is worrisome.
• Tom Gorzelanny had his third straight good-to-great outing, beating the Marlins on 5/7 (box/gamer).  He only gave up 2 hits through 7 innings, though a walk and a homer tagged him with 2 earned runs.  Gorzelanny is turning into a find for this team.  He’s the only starter who has yet to really have a bad outing and continues to pitch really well.

Bad

• Jason Marquis couldn’t follow up on his 5-hit gem and got pounded at the “Link” in Philadelphia on 5/4 (box/gamer).  Line: 5ip, 10hits (!), 7runs (6 of which were earned) and only 2ks.  Ugh.  His first “meltdown” of the season.
• If Marquis’ start was bad, then I guess John Lannan‘s needs a new category.  Lannan becomes the first Nats pitcher not to complete the 5th inning this season, only lasting 2 innings in an ugly 5/5 loss (gamer/box).  Line: 6runs on 7 hits in 2innings completed (he faced 6 consecutive batters without retiring one to open the 3rd inning).

Mediocre/Inconclusive

• Livan Hernandez is Mr YoYo.  One good outing, one medicore one.  One great outing, then one bad.  On Tuesday 5/3 he had an off night (gamer/box), getting battered around for 10 hits and an additional 4 walks (two of which were intentional, and one of THOSE was clearly against his wishes when facing Ryan Howard).  In the end, it wouldn’t have mattered since his offense mustered only one run (on a solo shot from Michael Morse).  Final line: 6 1/3, 10hits, 4 runs, 4 bb, 4ks and a loss.

Starter Trends

MLB Trends (through 5/7)
Lhernandez    good,bad,good,good,bad,good,soso
Marquis    good,good,good,soso,great,bad
Lannan    good,soso,soso,bad,soso,good,really bad
Zimmermann     good,good,good,bad,bad,good,good
Gorzelanny    soso,good,soso,good,great,good

Relievers of Note

• One day after a relatively electrifying MLB debut for the team, Henry Rodriguez showed what we can probably expect in the longer term.  On 4/30, he threw 11 fastballs that averaged 98.7mph and got two strikeouts in a clean 1 inning of work.  On 5/3 he threw 24 pitches, walked two guys, allowed a hit and got no strikeouts.  He showed a change up (a 90mph changeup, nice), but could not control his slider.  I think the jury is still out on this guy.  But he had to be a pretty amazing change of pace after Livan for 6 innings.  On 5/5 he got stretched out a bit but had another typical up and down session; 2 hits and a walk and 3Ks in 2 innings.
• Tyler Clippard had a pretty good line on friday 5/5: 6 batters faced, 6 strike outs.  Adam Kilgore reviewed the outing here.  He now has 27 Ks in 21 innings so far and an ERA+ of 301 on the season.
• Storen continues to be electric in the closer role.  He’s given up just one earned run in 17 appearances thus far, good for an 805 ERA+.  Can’t ask much more out of your fireman.

Thoughts on the offense

The continued deficiency of the offense is reaching troubling areas.  We’re a month into the season; no more excuses about “slow starts” or “getting back into the swing of it.”  As of 5/7, the team is 5-17 when scoring four runs or less (and 10-0 when scoring five or more).  This sounds great; all we need to do is score 5 or more runs a game and we’re the ’29 Yankees.  If your offense is already struggling, and they know they have to score a ton of runs to have a shot, team morale could fade fast.

Overall Summary

Amazingly, the team hovers near .500 despite having the 15th or 16th NL ranked offense in most categories.  They’re batting as a team 79 OPS+, putting them 20% below average.  Rick Ankiel is taking his .221 batting average onto the DL for a couple weeks, giving Roger Bernadina his best yet chance to own Center field and the leadoff position.  If he were to succeed, it may be a great kick start for the team.